The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

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The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.

Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.


Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.

Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!


Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.

Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.

No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.

Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.

The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.

Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.

Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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well that's only partially helpful.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Global.

And it's not "my graph".
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Good Morning All,

My WU weather

Webcam from my area


Current Jet Stream




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JTWC remains at 115kts.

WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 5.4N 140.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.4N 140.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 6.1N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 6.7N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.4N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 8.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 10.0N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.6N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.3N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 5.6N 139.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Aussie.Question....Being December 1 here in the states what is it comparable too where you live?
Ooops. Weatherwise that is
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
WTPQ20 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 05.4N 140.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 06.5N 135.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 031200UTC 07.7N 130.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 041200UTC 09.5N 124.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =



Wow, I just found a precedent. Super Typhoon Mike 1990
Look at that track. Killed 748 people in the Philippines.


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Aussie.Question....Being December 1 here in the states what is it comparable to where you live?
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Quoting AussieStorm:
To True.....

I love that Aussie
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To True.....

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Quoting RTSplayer:


Every time I post a youtube video I get banned, so you're probably better served if I don't tell you how to make it work.

depends on what u-tube video it is.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
For the life of me, I cannot figure out why I cannot post a you tube video that works here.. any help.. please?


Every time I post a youtube video I get banned, so you're probably better served if I don't tell you how to make it work.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Thousands left without power across with Whyalla hardest hit by wild storms



IT will take weeks to repair damage from a ferocious storm that smashed Whyalla, tearing trees from the ground "like toothpicks".
About 5000 homes were left without power after the freak storm lashed the town on Friday night, tearing rooves from houses and flooding streets.
As of last night power had been restored to all but about 200 homes in Whyalla.
Another 1000 homes across the state were left without electricity.
Whyalla bore the brunt of the damage as wild storms and flash flooding swept across parts of the state.
Whyalla Mayor Jim Pollock described the storm as the most savage he seen in the town in 40 years.
"It was unbelievable - you see these things on the television overseas or in Queensland - when it came through it was just like a tornado," he said.




"Some of the trees that were uprooted were about 20m high and they've been lifted out of the ground like toothpicks.
"Stobie poles were uprooted as well.
"We are not aware of any personal injury which is very good.


"Property damage can be fixed but you can't fix lives.
"Thank God for our volunteers and emergency service people, who have been working around the clock - they are still hard at it now and it will take weeks to fix all the damage."
State Emergency Service volunteers responded to about 120 calls in Whyalla for storm damage while the Metropolitan Fire Service responded to almost 200 jobs statewide.


The MFS station at Whyalla was among buildings that were flooded and country singer Kasey Chambers cancelled her show because of a power outage.
SES state duty officer Bob Stevenson said the storm tore off or damaged the rooves of 38 Whyalla homes, while there were 62 reports of fallen trees - some which damaged houses.
Mr Pollock said trampolines were strewn about the town and a fibreglass boat had been upturned in the Whyalla marina.

A taxi driver was lucky to escape injury when a tree crashed on to his cab.
The storm also caused damage on Yorke Peninsula and through the Murraylands and Upper South-East regions.

SA Power Networks spokesman Paul Roberts said a large team of crews were in Whyalla but it could be days before power was restored to some areas.

"Priority will be given to safety jobs and to reconnection of critical infrastructure to assist other authorities manage their response to storm damage in the town," he said.


In Victoria, hundreds of homes are still without power and some have been rendered uninhabitable after severe thunderstorms ripped through the state's south-west.
Power was cut to 9000 homes and the State Emergency Service received 250 calls for help within an hour from residents at Ballarat as the storm hit on Friday night. Yesterday afternoon, 708 homes were still without power in Ballarat and Ararat.
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357. VR46L
Yup the season is over............

91L in rainbow


Dont think Mother nature pays attention to man made deadlines...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6971
The LLC continues exposed. Will the shear abate to allow it to develop before the front eats it?

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Homes threatened as bushfire jumps containment lines in Hobart



A BUSHFIRE has jumped containment lines, putting homes under threat in a Hobart suburb.

The Tasmanian Fire Service said the fire at Glenlusk, a northwest suburb, jumped one of the containment lines on Glenlusk Road this morning.

"It's heading toward some houses,'' a spokeswoman said.

The spokeswoman said fire units were at the scene protecting properties while police closed off the road.

She said residents were being asked to activate their bushfire plans and assist firefighters by protecting their properties if they were able to.



Several other bushfires burning at Glen Huon, Forcett and Central Plateau were not currently threatening properties, she said.

Emergency crews battled fires through the night after 60 blazes broke out across the state yesterday, The Mercury reported.

Temperatures up to 34C in the South and strong winds fanned the flames in an early warning of the summer fire season ahead.

Several shacks and vehicles in the Glen Huon area were destroyed.

Some residents evacuated areas affected by the worst fires, including Glen Huon and Geeveston in the South and Glenlusk near Collinsvale, north-west of Hobart.



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91L up to 50%.


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EST SAT DEC 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1150 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IF NECESSARY...ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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WTPQ20 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 05.4N 140.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 06.5N 135.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 031200UTC 07.7N 130.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 041200UTC 09.5N 124.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

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What a beautiful storm.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7997
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41670
Thanks Nea.. I guess when I tried to embed, I hit a couple new ones and "assumed" that it would not work. I gave some a test run in preview, and it works as instructed... and cannot be defeated by replacing "iframe" with "object"

From another magazine I get; Eco-Voice Digest

This is humor.. and is posted as such.

Dec. 5 Eleanor Sterling, Center for Biodiversity and Conservation, AMNH Climate Change & Impacts on Biodiversity

Dear friends and colleagues,

We recently uncovered this ancient letter, dated 6,000 BC, from Noah to God:

Dear God,

We are writing to let you know that we received your projection of an upcoming catastrophic climate change, with accompanying flood. We also looked over your rather fanciful recommendation that we build and stock an "ark". As you know, climate forecasters remain uncertain as to whether it will rain for forty days and forty nights. Indeed, our own wise man has read the sheep entrails and projects a range that includes the possibility of no additional precipitation, or perhaps even an extended drought.

Should heavy rains develop-and we assume, realistically, a worst-case scenario of seven days and seven nights-rest assured, the Noah's are prepared. We can quickly build two goat-skin rafts, on which we can take the entire family, our goats, sheep chickens, camels and enough seed to see us through the next season. Frankly we are baffled by your "command" that "two-by-two" we take on board and feed all the animals of creation, including: serpents, mice, bats, horses, lice, buffalo, doves, elephants, geckos, frogs, chimpanzees, polar bears, moose, prairie dogs, quail, springbok, squirrels, mosquitos, turtles, beavers, grasshoppers and countless other useless creatures.

Really, what is the point? Most of these animals live thousands of miles away from human civilization. What use could they possibly be to anyone? And besides, do you have any idea what this ark would cost? In spite of your reputation for omniscience, we are quite frankly disturbed that you have been taken in by environmental extremists bent on wrecking our economy.

Sincerely,

Noah
Patriarch and Senior Research Fellow
The Noah-It-All Institute

PS: What is a gecko?
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91L...

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Quoting indianrivguy:
For the life of me, I cannot figure out why I cannot post a you tube video that works here.. any help.. please?


1) Under the video you wish to place here, click "Share".

2) Click "Embed" (note that some videos have this option turned off; in such cases, you're out of luck).

3) In the list of options, be sure "Use old embed code" is checked. (Note that this option is not available for every video for technical reasons. If so, you won't be able to embed it from YouTube. But such videos are often available elsewhere on the web, and can be embedded here.)

4) Enter "500" in the Custom Width box.

6) Copy the embed code in the box.

7) Paste it here as text. That is, don't attempt to place it in a quote box, or an image. Simply paste it here, and you're done. Like this:

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13733
For the life of me, I cannot figure out why I cannot post a you tube video that works here.. any help.. please?

As Indian Riverkeeper, I belong to the Waterkeepers Alliance. They help produce a newsletter that I get daily. Here is a link to it.. Eco Watch

Today, I ran across a video that curiosity made me watch. Believing that Bill O'Rielly is nothing more than entertainment, I have little interest in his biased (aren't they all?) view. However, the subject of global warming tweaked my interest. If you would like to watch a AGW skeptic change her mind, this is the place.


Bill O%u2019Reilly Fan Shares Her Paradigm Shift After Watching Climate Change Documentary


After watching this, I of course had to watch the trailer for Chasing Ice.. I have to see this one.. if nothing else, the photography and scenery are outstanding.

Chasing Ice Trailer

Here is the official website; Chasing Ice

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Good morning. Bopha's still looking good this morning:



The latest microwave just barely managed to catch its pinhole eye:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7997
Quoting indianrivguy:
Nornin' gang!

Evening Mate!

Aussie, the storm picture was awesome, wow isn't a good enough word!!!


Hey mate, I haven't completely melted yet but almost. I feel like I am sitting a pool of sweat.
Temp is at 79F right now with 65% humidity making a heat index of 81.3F. It's 22:40 Saturday night here. Waiting on a cold change, the temp right now is meant to be our max temp tomorrow.
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Mornin' gang!

Evening Mate!

Aussie, the storm picture was awesome, wow isn't a big enough word!!!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41670
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41670
Good Morning Folks..great week ahead for sure....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41670
Good morning. It was a mainly dry November in Puerto Rico but December looks to begin on a wet note.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SAT DEC 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC INTO
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. INVERTED SFC TROF WILL
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY THROUGH SUN AND PUSH SE OF THE AREA
BY MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUICK SURGE IN MOISTURE
LATER TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO ALMOST TWO INCHES WHICH
IS CLOSE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR DEC. S/W
TROUGH NOW EXITING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HRS AS IT MOVES EWD. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INVERTED
SFC TROF ACROSS THE AREA AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THAT STEERING WINDS ARE FCST TO COLLAPSE LATE
TONIGHT THRU SUN WHICH COULD RESULT IN VERY SLOW MOVING CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
ISSUED ON THIS BASIS AND AREAL CVRG WAS DETERMINED BY A DECEMBER
RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY FROM 1981-2010 WHICH SHOWS THAT MOST HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS ACROSS THE ISLAND IN DECEMBER TAKE PLACE ACROSS
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. RIVERS IN THIS AREA ARE VERY SHORT IN
LENGTH AND VERY FAST RESPONDERS SO EXPECT TO SEE SOME FLOODING
EITHER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

THINGS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUN NIGHT AND MON AS INVERTED TROF PUSHES
SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT. HOWEVER...INCREASING
NORTHERLIES AND COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO LAST MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BETWEEN 01/17Z
AND 01/21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 05-10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT EXPECTED TO BUILD MON NIGHT TO 10 FT IN
NORTHEAST SWELLS. GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT
BUT SWELLS GREATER THAN 10 FT ARE CLIMATOLOGICAL RARE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...NOVEMBER 2012 ENDED AS THE HOTTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD
AT LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (TJSJ) WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
OF 82.4 DEGREES. IN TERM OF PRECIPITATION AT TJSJ...NOVEMBER ENDED
AS THE TWELFTH DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD WITH JUST 3.09 INCHES. AT
CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT (TISX)...NOVEMBER 2012 ENDED AS THE NINTH
HOTTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.2
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 79 83 73 / 60 100 100 30
STT 81 80 80 79 / 60 100 100 30
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Nine in hospital as NSW temps hit 42C

PARAMEDICS have treated more than a dozen people for heat exhaustion, as temperatures soared to almost 43C in parts of the state.
Across NSW nine people were hospitalised on Saturday, suffering heat stroke, stress or heat exhaustion, while another three were treated by ambulance staff.
At Bondi in Sydney's east, a 91-year-old man was taken to St Vincent's Hospital in a stable condition, while in Raby in the southwestern suburbs, a 19-year-old man was hit with heat stroke while playing cricket and taken to Campbelltown Hospital.
The incidents came after Sydney ushered in its hottest start to summer overnight since records started in 1859.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said the city experienced a minimum of 23C overnight.
"It was a first night of summer record,'' meteorologist Julie Evans told AAP.
Meanwhile, on Saturday the hottest place in the state was Coonamble in NSW's central west, which reached 42.8C, the bureau said.
In western Sydney, temperatures did not hit the maximum of 40C forecast, instead peaking at about 38C.
"That was because we did have more cloud around than was expected,'' Ms Evans said.
Cooler weather is expected for Sunday, with scattered showers and a minimum of 21C and a maximum of 24C forecast for Sydney.
In Penrith, a maximum of 26C is expected, while people in Moree in northern NSW will face the state's highest temperature at 41C.
Ms Evans said despite the drop in temperatures, humidity is expected to linger across Sydney until mid-week.
"On Wednesday, a westerly change is coming through and taking a lot of that humidity away.''
However, she said, early forecasts show that next weekend could bring high temperatures back across the state, with a top of 31C forecast for Sydney next Saturday and a maximum of 37C in the western suburbs.
"What we are seeing for next weekend is similar to what we are having today, which is mid to high 30s.''
She said it was shaping up to be a warmer summer than last year.
"Last summer, only two days reached 30C at Observatory Hill (in Sydney).''
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When you compare the track maps of 2012 to 2005, there quite a few similarities....

First you have the "squiggle" storms out in the eastern central atlantic zig-zagging around. Then, you have a number of central atlantic recurving storms just to the west of the "squiggles"... then there's somewhat of a nucleolus of clustered storms right off the southeastern coast... then you have some north central gulf impacts...then you have your trans-Caribbean storms with Yucatan/central american impacts with eventual impacts in the southern BOC. And finally in both seasons you've got two storms crossing cuba/hispanola on a north to NW track. Not to mention Sandy and Ophelia doing weird stuff up the east coast.



Obviously there are a number of differences, but overall, when compared with 2010 and 2011 which had the same number of storms, this year stands out as having mimicked 2005's distribution pattern.
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337. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST December 1 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (945 hPa) located at 5.1N 141.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 6.2N 137.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
48 HRS: 7.6N 132.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East of Mindanao (Philippines)
72 HRS: 9.2N 127.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East of Mindanao (Philippines)
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336. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST December 1 2012
=================================

Vortex over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal centered within a half degree of 11.0N 90.0E.

Dvorak intensity: T1.0

Center is more clear in visible imagery. Wind shear is of the order of 10 knots over the region.
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I just remember reading updates for Hurricane Epsilon in December and thinking that it just had to be the end of the season... and then came Tropical Storm Zeta which persisted until January 6. What a year it was! May we never see it repeated.
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Quoting hydrus:
Look back at 2005. Mets all over the world were in awe..


Amazing how truly little Cape Verde development occurred that year, despite the obscene number of named storms.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
WU meteorologist Angela Fritz on The Weather Channel talking about the West Coast storm.
Video
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKcan't believe I'm posting this


Can't believe you beat TA to posting this, albeit him not being on right now, but still.

Interesting time to post, one hour into the first day of the off-season.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 AM EST SAT DEC 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1350 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM LATER
TODAY...IF NECESSARY.


can't believe I'm posting this
Look back at 2005. Mets all over the world were in awe..
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Quoting stormchaser19:
Is not the end yet.......
..Western Caribbean is still warm enough for a hurricane too..
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 AM EST SAT DEC 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1350 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM LATER
TODAY...IF NECESSARY.


can't believe I'm posting this
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting RTSplayer:


Sad thing is, the people in that age group and UPWARDS, i.e. the uneducated ones, are the ones making decisions right now in the U.S.

i'm sorry but hahahahahahahahahahahah were we in the same boat 40 years ago. good luck with the getting old thing.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 81
Quoting Doppler22:
Hey, we had 2 storms in May why not one in December? :p
And September, Peak of the season was unusually calm, trully a very strange season....
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STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 06 FOR WESTERN U.S. HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 700 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

...MULTI-DAY RAIN...WIND...AND SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST...

AT 600 PM PST...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB...28.72 INCHES...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CONTINUES TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON... NORTHWEST OREGON... AND SOUTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHERN UTAH. SOME LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO FALLING IN PARTS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND EASTERN NEVADA. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER... SNOW WAS BEING RECORDED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY... STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND THE LOW PRESSURE OF THIS STORM.
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.
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Quoting Civicane49:

There was definitely an unnamed storm in the north central Atlantic at about 01:16!
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Quoting allancalderini:
or two in December as the models are developing William two.4 out season storms will be amazing.

that wuld go with the wacky season
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.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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