The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close
The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.
Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.
Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.
Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.
Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.
Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!
Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.
Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.
Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.
Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.
Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.
Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.
It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.
No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.
Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.
The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.
Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.
Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.
The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Oh well. I guess this is some sort of entertainment...
I hear ya. Good point. Average daily temp is derived from adding the high and the low and dividing by two of course. Then adding and averaging all those averages for a year (in your example). That single number is for the most part inarguable for a single location.
If you and I decide that we will compare this number at a single location to the previous 30 years all summed and averaged together and it is warmer then we might call it an "anomaly" for that single year.
If we repeat the process going back in time for several 30 yr periods with each set resulting in a warmer average from oldest to newest then the straight line trend would represent a "change" by most folks.
Pretty easy to do for a single location...
any eyewall replacements based on that image... chances are there could be some
How to be a Minnemike:
1. Drink the kool-aid
That's it.
(Hope it's not too complicated for ya)
Can't see any holes in that argument.
Already went through one earlier and another could happen.
There is a clear analogy between taking action when a hurricane threatens and the problems CO2 will cause (and has started causing). No analogy is perfect of course. The outstanding difference is that dealing with CO2 is not an individual decision.
I could decide not to go out in a hurricane to rescue Joe Blow stuck on a barrier island in a hurricane, but with the pervasive impacts of CO2 we will all be out there with our collective behinds flapping in the wind.
Mary and Webster sez: niggling -- petty; also : bothersome or persistent especially in a petty or tiresome way. First used in 1599.
Synonyms: chicken, de minimis, footling, inconsequential, inconsiderable, insignificant, measly, Mickey Mouse, minute, negligible, no-account, nominal, paltry, peanut, petty, picayune, piddling, piddly, piffling, pimping, slight, trifling, trivial
Not entirely sure where you are coming from or going to, here.
Living in a small Island Nation as I do, I think that I am more exposed to different ideologies/perspectives than many others, simply because what happens "outside" often affects us here and we have no recourse.
We are 'suffering' the effects of a changing climate (by whatever means) and these include coastal erosion, unusual rainfall trends, and exceedingly hot periods for weeks on end.
I cant think of any positives.
Generally speaking, people in the Third World look to the more Developed economies to lead by example and to provide information relevant to what is going on.
It is shocking to many of us that some Developed Countries seem to be making no headway at all in dealing with what appears to be good evidence of Climate Change.
In fact, the debate tends to always come down to "How much energy is he using, then?" in an attempt to dismiss the facts as froth.
Hiya Beell,
But make sure that you don't use the Islands off N-W Europe this year... LOL (ducks out of blog can't face the onslaught that will be coming my way on a peaceful Sunday evening.)
just a bunch of hype to push a carbon tax.....
Yes, you are absolutely correct. Life as we live it now depends on cheap oil and lots of it, and billions of us would die if it suddenly ran out tomorrow (from the wars over resources, if nothing else). When oil becomes too scarce to produce a profit from drilling, and we all know that isn't going to happen soon, then reseach grants will suddenly appear to search for alternatives to cheap oil. I don't expect much progress until then. IOW, follow the money.
I am not a fan of the carbon tax. I am much less of a fan of inaction when it comes to mitigation of the CO2 that OUR activities contribute to the warming trend of our climate. I am VERY open to hearing alternatives.
well get ready the carbon tax is coming.....
Hiya, V.
Take heart. You may be sitting on a gold mine!
Global warming's silver lining: Northern countries will thrive, grow/UCLA Newsroom Sept 03, 2010
Well, the next logical step once your argument holds no weight is to call the opposing party a bunch of cultists that drink the Kool-aid.
He followed that like a champ. He must be well versed in losing debates.
well your stuck with 4 more yrs of that policy....
All warm and fuzzy!
Quoting nymore:
did you look in the mirror again?
Nice...ya'll should get a room.
Interesting article Beell , but I was thinking more on the lines of the seasonal reports that will be coming in the coming week .I understand both the UK and Ireland will have below average temperatures 2 seasons running but will have to see between tomorrow and Wednesday when they are released...
Wait till they order the American public to surrender all firearms.
Citation needed, please.
The moniker "Republicrat is a portmanteau of 'Republican' and 'Democrat', and without going into great detail on the subject, yes; they're both liberal. But exploring my views on that is a matter for another blog.
A carbon tax will do little more than stress the lower 50% of earners in any population.
Driving to and from work and eating are requirements every day, and they will never go away. Shipping Lettuce from California to Louisiana, and sugar from Louisiana to California, takes the same amount of gasoline or diesel, with or without the carbon tax. Growing those things requires a certain minimum amount of tractor work and other machinery, which can't reasonably be reduced by anywhere near enough to make a difference. The same can be said for construction industry workers driving to work, or other forms of goods and services and the transportation of those things.
Increasing engine fuel efficiency by more than a few percent per decade, and having the economic returns of those improvements be worth enough to pay for the additional engineering and manufacturing efforts in their lifetime, for trucks is almost certainly impossible, else someone would have figured it out by now.
Even if you could make every combustion engine run at the double Carnot limit, it wouldn't be enough to reduce pollution to the break-even point. We need to cut total CO2 pollution by about 33%, or total net CO2 pollution needs to be cut by 100% just to break even.
Then you must consider world population growth is very high, and U.S. population growth is around 10% or so, and 2/3rds of that is immigration (half of which is illegal); what this means is world population is growing exponentially, and U.S. population is also growing exponentially, even though American birth rates are below the global average.
All of this means that even if you made engines produce 33% less CO2 per unit work, decreasing per-capita CO2 production and decreasing per-capita fuel demand, the world population and average development standard is growing faster than the efficiency standards of the machines could ever be improved to keep up with demand.
A carbon tax is therefore a tax on life itself, which is contrary to the founding laws and other founding documents of the U.S. It will solve nothing except making the search for a solution more expensive.
All of this means that "making better engines" is not the solution, since there are physical, practical limits which have already been reached or nearly reached in most cases. Making technology that runs on something other than combustion is the solution, which implies wind and solar.
A quick calculation shows that the last 10 El Nino years have averaged 0.33C above average, while the last 10 La Nina years have averaged 0.23C above average.
2010 is the warmest year on record, and it was the first El Nino for 7 years. That goes some way towards explaining why global temperatures have plateaued in recent years.
The image isn't posting, so here's a link.
Link
Current conditions in my area - Houston, Texas
I did misread; thanks for the correction. I don't agree with you, but you are right that this is not an argument for this blog. I appreciate that you answered my question.
I'm not having perfect weather in SE MI. I have cloudy skies, warm temps, and off and on rainy conditions. I have picked up .2" of rain in the past 24hrs. This is coming off of the 6th driest November on record for me.
I have to finally speak up, as I get tired of the same old "kool aid" comment. If drinking that kool aid is such a great solution, why was Jim Jones shot in the head by his body guards? I'll skip that kool aid, thanks anyway.
I'm sitting in the lower 50's under an overcast sky, but it could be worse.
Heya Pat, what happens when we reach 0?
I'm no expert, but I believe the northern hemisphere will start getting longer days.
In all honesty, the republican party tends to be conservative and the democratic party liberal.
Just as an aside, I like that in Canada you can call a vote of no confidence and have a new election if the current leadership loses. It's kind of like a performance review partway through the term, and I could think of a few politicians I could fire :)
LOL ...Good Answer
Like I've Never Been Gone?
I'll see you baby, when the ice has broken
When the rain stops falling down
I'll be waiting for you, baby when your time has come
And your face no longer frowns
I caught a taste of springtime on your lips
I saw the sunlight in your eyes
I wake to find you smiling with the dawn
Just reminders of the time
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1225 PM PST SUN DEC 2 2012
CAC003-005-009-017-033-057-061-067-077-095-099-10 1-109-113-115-
040215-
/O.EXT.KSTO.FA.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-121204T0215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
STANISLAUS CA-YOLO CA-TUOLUMNE CA-NEVADA CA-ALPINE CA-SAN JOAQUIN CA-
SUTTER CA-LAKE CA-EL DORADO CA-PLACER CA-YUBA CA-AMADOR CA-
CALAVERAS CA-SACRAMENTO CA-SOLANO CA-
1225 PM PST SUN DEC 2 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS EXTENDED THE
* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ALPINE COUNTY...
AMADOR COUNTY...
CALAVERAS COUNTY...
EL DORADO COUNTY...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA COUNTY...
PLACER COUNTY...
SACRAMENTO COUNTY...
SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY...
STANISLAUS COUNTY...
SOUTHERN SUTTER COUNTY...
TUOLUMNE COUNTY...
YOLO COUNTY...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN YUBA COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY...
SOLANO COUNTY...
* UNTIL 615 PM PST MONDAY
* AT 1225 PM PST THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING OUT OF
INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL
CONTINUE AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS INTO MONDAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS WHO LIVE NEAR SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WATER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 3717 12138 3754 12156 3809 12159 3803 12216
3815 12229 3834 12207 3884 12236 3869 12247
3868 12265 3885 12236 3904 12104 3926 12029
3885 12015 3845 11968 3818 11959 3805 11987
3776 11986 3772 12032 3741 12095 3713 12122
$$
PCH
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