The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

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The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.

Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.


Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.

Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!


Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.

Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.

No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.

Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.

The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.

Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.

Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just got four teeth pulled. Surprised I'm not being silly.
Just wait a few hours when all of the meds wear off..........Silly won't be the words
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just got four teeth pulled. Surprised I'm not being silly.


I thought dentists were generally averse to pulling.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just got four teeth pulled. Surprised I'm not being silly.

getting four teeth pulled sounds silly. ;)
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Putting things in scale:

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Despite gaining a bit of latitude, Bopha is still way down there; still a touch below 6*N. It's amazing that it is so strong that close to the equator.



Also, Bopha is small even for Atlantic standards. In the WPac, that is downright tiny.
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Raw T# and Adj T# on Bopha are both 7.0's.  Could be near Cat 5.
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Just got four teeth pulled. Surprised I'm not being silly.
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NOAA proposes listing 66 reef-building coral species under the Endangered Species Act
November 30, 2012



"Healthy coral reefs are among the most economically valuable and biologically diverse ecosystems on earth," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary for commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "Corals provide habitat to support fisheries that feed millions of people; generate jobs and income to local economies through recreation, tourism, and fisheries; and protect coastlines from storms and erosion. Yet, scientific research indicates that climate change and other activities are putting these corals at risk. This is an important, sensible next step toward preserving the benefits provided by these species, both now and into the future."

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20121130 _coralspecies.html
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411. beell
I'm sure I'll survive, bf.
More like a hammering. Ya know what they say:
If the only tool you have in your tool box is a hammer...every problem is a nail.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
Quoting whybminor:
BOPHA -- looks to me like it's not only unusual but perhaps unprecedented -- ie, this intense a storm this far south. There was one in 1970 that might give it a run. Any others (in western Pac)?

So, what are the conditions that are allowing this usual event?

Phil



Good, a contributor found another precedent from 1990. But surely, somone out there knows something about the conditions that might be contributing to this unusual event. SST is extremely high, but is it unusual for this time of year? Where on earth could all this vorticity have come from?

Looks it's drawn a bead on Palau, a place I know fairly well.

And yes it will cause immense havoc in the Philippines which only rarely get a storm this intense this far south. People and infrastructure and hillslsides are just not prepared there as they are farther north.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
The water from the glaciers I have watched melt over 40 years do not connect to sea in any significant way I am aware of. The lakes in front of them are bigger and the glaciers, way, way shrunken. I presume this kind of glacial melt is not something that would be added in.
I am looking for info on how the melt is calculated and consolidated and, especially, how it is then projected into the future as sea levels worldwide. I will start with the link you left.


Just out of curiosity, what situations are you referring to where the glacial melt doesn't connect to the oceans such that they would not be included in sea level rise?

There are many ways that sea level rise due to glaciers can be estimated. I believe they can estimate the flux of water off of continents through gauges on meltwater channels. There of course are also the newer satellite-derived estimates which use changes in gravity as a proxy for water mass loss. It can also be estimated working backwards by estimating sea level rise first, then attributing components to different sources and through process of elimination estimating where the remaining portion came from. Thus far, thermal expansion has been responsible for the largest portion of sea level rise (directly tied to ocean temperature), but the contribution from land glaciers continues to grow. I'm not sure when it is expected to outpace thermal expansion.
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Looks like 91L could be going through a CoC re-location, note the swirl emerge from the clouds and unwind as you can see a swirl develop towards the end of the loop about were the old one was before it became displaced.


Powerful Typhoon
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Among the post-disaster questions that bloggers here sometimes ask are "Why didn't those people evacuate?" and "What could be done differently to get better evacuation compliance?"

Transportation and Money are certainly components of the issue: If you don't have the money to get out of town, it becomes much harder to do so. Similarly with transportation: If you don't have a car, and many big city people from every walk of life do not, the idea of trying to use whatever public transportation is available to carry yourself, loved ones, pets and perhaps valuables is just too intimidating.

Yet another dynamic, leaving town, that many people have to deal with is "Where in hell am I gunna go...? Up past Albany to pay ghastly amounts to the owner of some cheap motel...? Fuh_GEDDA aboudit!" Knowing that the amount of time they may have to spend at where ever, if a where ever is indeed findable, may become extended indefinitely, is a further discouragement.

This last might be remediable though: Imagine a web site something like facebook, only instead, it would be specifically 'evacu-book'. People that could receive evacuees in their home, or have a place for them otherwise, would make it known there. People that need to evacuate can describe themselves, and even suggest whatever skills or assets they may have to offer in return. People that are hesitant to leave their place of danger might be more likely to go if they knew that there was a solid haven of some sort.

And, while in the blind most folks wouldn't go for this idea, with the web, people can put forth their own social characteristics that matter to them, and specify as well as they care to what sort of people they would be willing to host. A methodist accountant would find the idea of opening his house to another methodist accountant and his family agreeable, or at least more so than to relatively unknown people. A Doctor would be more comfortable receiving another medical professional. Catholics with catholics, hip hop artists with hip hop artists. Black white 12-steppers bridge players golfers rodeo nascar gangster horseplayers etc etc etc.... the more people perceive others to be like themselves, the more likely they are to lend a hand.

Generally the matching function would run that way, but sometimes it would be complementary as well ... A blue-haired old lady may prefer a single mother of two more than the company of another blue-haired old lady. (Why, I don't know... but some blue haired old ladies just love goopy babies and mothering and all that.) A sultry babe may prefer a beef cake over more competition.

But in general, the idea seems do-able and much needed. It would need super strong and clear legal disclaimers. It would simply facilitate contact with no implied obligation at all; people once connected would form their own opinions, agreements and plans. Probably it should be set up so that each person's offer expires automatically in thirty days or so. It should be kept separate from facebook in as much as a lot of people refuse to use facebook.... but it could be maybe set up to be linked into facebook so that facebook users could use it as well....?

Anyway, there's my thought for the day. One of you young wipper-snapper web cowboys might run with it, make some $ and do some good.
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Quoting schwankmoe:
11cm during the 20th century was the portion due to glacial melt. at least according to a few studies.

the loss in the ice sheets in greenland and west antarctic are starting to make up a larger percentage of the rise these days.

off the top of my head, the total rise to date since 1900 is roughly 21 or 22cm. i'd need to check that tho.
Thank you.
:)
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Quoting beell:


LMAO
LOL.
Please behave yourself, bl. Unless you're itchin' for a lickin'.
:)
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11cm during the 20th century was the portion due to glacial melt. at least according to a few studies.

the loss in the ice sheets in greenland and west antarctic are starting to make up a larger percentage of the rise these days.

off the top of my head, the total rise to date since 1900 is roughly 21 or 22cm. i'd need to check that tho.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 734
This image isn't brand new, but it still shows how well Bopha came through eyewall replacement.



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396. schwankmoe 4:09 PM GMT on December 01, 2012
Thanks so much for the answer and for not judging me a "denialist." As a skeptic for life in general, I am a natural. As far as "global warming," I know it's happening. I've seen glacier shrinkage with my own eye. I can't stand the issue is so politicized and that "green," which is a word redefined in the 1970s, has become a dirty word in some circles. My skepticism regarding AGW is rooted in how much warming man contributes and how much, as a puffed up biological being who has reproduced its kind astronomically in 50 years time, can mankind actually reduce and control this warming phenomenon. Add to this, warming is a global occurrence and will take global action if anything at all can be done. I've thought for a while any real solution would include harnessing some unknown and perhaps accidentally discovered force of nature, like Penicillin or microwaves, only something bigger that will allow mankind to continue to flourish on Earth in increasing numbers. Possible mankind is in for a fall, bigtime.

I understand gauges that monitor water level. Interesting the global rise was 11.1 cm in 20th century? Is that what you meant? I take it you're saying that sea ice levels and glacial melt in different parts of the world (etc on the "whole nine yards" you mention) is somehow calculated worldwide but not according to any global standard and then this data is compared to empirical data of sea levels also not calculated according to a global standard. The water from the glaciers I have watched melt over 40 years do not connect to sea in any significant way I am aware of. The lakes in front of them are bigger and the glaciers, way, way shrunken. I presume this kind of glacial melt is not something that would be added in.

I am looking for info on how the melt is calculated and consolidated and, especially, how it is then projected into the future as sea levels worldwide. I will start with the link you left.

Will be interesting to see what the Chinese come up with from their scientific voyage through the Arctic this past summer.

Thanks again!
Quoting schwankmoe:
the recent studies posted here involve greenland and east and west antarctica, tho the authors seemed to break it down into the greenland numbers since they're the most startling. some of the news stories about the recent studies are remarkably information-free.

as to studies about glacial melt, there are plenty out there that show roughly 11cm added to sea level rise during the 20th century. here's a place to start.

as to thermal expansion, that's more iffy since it's based on the preceding variables and currently provides a minority of the rise in sea levels. the impact of thermal expansion is mostly modeled and the models vary a bit. you'd have to search and read.

as to how sea level rise is 'defined and calculated', there is no 'globally agreed-on standard' as to how sea level is measured, but by and large it's measured using a system of tidal gauges and since 1992 satellite altimeter data. but there is no global standard that fixes that data any more than there's some global standard for surface temperature measurements. different studies use different data, some adjust for certain things, etc etc.

this is science, which is being done by a whole bunch of separate groups comparing their findings. even a peer-reviewed journal is going to publish a lot of different studies, some of which have differing findings and methodologies.

if you want some centralized repository of this stuff you'll need to look at some organization like NOAA or the IPCC.

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401. beell


Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/ 09 13-Valid 11/21 through 11/27.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/21 through 11/27.

(click graphic(s) for full image)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16920
tiny pinhole eye

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399. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
--but you'd have to first let us know what you mean by "biased".


LMAO
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Good afternoon.
Heavy showers here today and last night. (Trinidad 11n 61w)
Drizzling now, but some more heavy stuff coming in a while.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Can you please point me in the direction where I can read about how global sea rise is defined and calculated? I want something official, not op-ed or a climate change blog. I'd try google, but chances are what I'm looking for would be buried under the many biased climate change pages on the net. I am looking for something that will show me standards globally agreed upon among those who research this stuff. TIA.
The problem is that many in the denialist community consider any source that shows and/or supports climate change theory to be biased. To them, a website that doesn't explicitly deny that the climate is changing is not to be trusted. This includes (but isn't limited to) most scientific, educational, or governmental websites, along with websites run by most credible news organizations, and any websites that aren't of a politically conservative bent. IOW, you can certainly be steered in the right direction for the definition and calculation of global sea level--but you'd have to first let us know what you mean by "biased".
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13797
the recent studies posted here involve greenland and east and west antarctica, tho the authors seemed to break it down into the greenland numbers since they're the most startling. some of the news stories about the recent studies are remarkably information-free.

as to studies about glacial melt, there are plenty out there that show roughly 11cm added to sea level rise during the 20th century. here's a place to start.

as to thermal expansion, that's more iffy since it's based on the preceding variables and currently provides a minority of the rise in sea levels. the impact of thermal expansion is mostly modeled and the models vary a bit. you'd have to search and read.

as to how sea level rise is 'defined and calculated', there is no 'globally agreed-on standard' as to how sea level is measured, but by and large it's measured using a system of tidal gauges and since 1992 satellite altimeter data. but there is no global standard that fixes that data any more than there's some global standard for surface temperature measurements. different studies use different data, some adjust for certain things, etc etc.

this is science, which is being done by a whole bunch of separate groups comparing their findings. even a peer-reviewed journal is going to publish a lot of different studies, some of which have differing findings and methodologies.

if you want some centralized repository of this stuff you'll need to look at some organization like NOAA or the IPCC.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Hello. If you are still around, I have a question.

In the previous blog, some posted links to a newly published Princeton study on Greenland ice melt. You responded to my comment and made a distinction between the sea rise from Greenland ice melt (11.1 cm as calculated by another poster) and global sea rise. I take it from your response global sea rise might include the separate areas of the globe you mention added together - "greenland, east and west antarctic, glaciers, thermal expansion, the whole nine yards."? Can you please point me in the direction where I can read about how global sea rise is defined and calculated. I want something official, not op-ed or a climate change blog. I'd try google, but chances are what I'm looking for would be buried under the many biased climate change pages on the net. I am looking for something that will show me standards globally agreed upon among those who research this stuff. TIA.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 734
More Intense North Atlantic Tropical Storms Likely in the Future

ScienceDaily (Nov. 30, 2012) %u2014 Tropical storms that make their way into the North Atlantic, and possibly strike the East Coast of the United States, likely will become more intense during the rest of this century. ...

More on Science Daily and all the best for all of you for the first Advent weekend.

Christmas market has started in my town (Mainz); you can see it on the webcam.
Just in time there is already a lot of snow in southeastern parts of Germany. And for more regions in the western parts (including mine near Frankfurt?) thumbs up that it will happen tonight. German weather freaks are already excited about it on their blogs, lol.
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The Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services has been measuring sea level for over 150 years, with tide stations of the National Water Level Observation Network operating on all U.S. coasts . Changes in Mean Sea Level (MSL), either a sea level rise or sea level fall, have been computed at 128 long-term water level stations using a minimum span of 30 years of observations at each location. These measurements have been averaged by month to remove the effect of higher frequency phenomena in order to compute an accurate linear sea level trend. The trend analysis has also been extended to a network of global tide stations.


http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrend s.shtml
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as i said, it's easy to mislead with graphs. what anomaly is it? if you're comparing it to the previous year or even vs. a five-year running average the anomaly in 1998 is going to be higher than it is this year, even if this year ends up the hottest on record. this is how people say it hasn't gotten any warmer since 1998 even though 2005 and 2010 were warmer.

Quoting ScottLincoln:

Based upon what he said, it seems clear that he just found this graph somewhere that someone else made, but didn't know what it meant. But it had a line that looked like CO2 and a line that looked like temperature, so it said what he wanted it to say.

It's like "yay, look what I found on Google! That'll show 'em!" ...and somehow that beats people spending 7 years in school becoming educated on this stuff, analyzing the data on their own, and keeping up to date with the experts actually doing the research. I didn't make the graph, I don't know what it represents or how to use it, but that guy that tried to tell me how... he's the arrogant one!
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 734
Quoting schwankmoe:
Hello. If you are still around, I have a question.

In the previous blog, some posted links to a newly published Princeton study on Greenland ice melt. You responded to my comment and made a distinction between the sea rise from Greenland ice melt (11.1 cm as calculated by another poster) and global sea rise. I take it from your response global sea rise might include the separate areas of the globe you mention added together - "greenland, east and west antarctic, glaciers, thermal expansion, the whole nine yards."? Can you please point me in the direction where I can read about how global sea rise is defined and calculated? I want something official, not op-ed or a climate change blog. I'd try google, but chances are what I'm looking for would be buried under the many biased climate change pages on the net. I am looking for something that will show me standards globally agreed upon among those who research this stuff. TIA.
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How many seasons we will going on still using the Saffir-Simpson scale to indicate hurricane strength? The two most notable storms of this season (Isaac and Sandy) were relatively minor storms based on the Saffir-Simpson scale but reality is telling us otherwise. I don't understand... we already know the Saffir-Simpson scale is meaningless, yet we continue to use it (e.g. only 1 major hurricane this season and it is neither Isaac, nor Sandy)... That's a sign of insanity. How many people died in Sandy because they went through Irene and thought "oh, just another tropical storm/cat. 1 hurricane" so they decided to stay?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The LLC continues exposed. Will the shear abate to allow it to develop before the front eats it?


If wind shear decreases, which it should, then more development of 91L should happen.
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389. Skyepony (Mod)
Wow 91L working to the surface...spankin fresh ASCAT..

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388. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tokyo ADT

2012DEC01 143000 6.5 919.7/ +5.7 /127.0 6.5 6.8 6.8

Dvorak T6.5

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TXPQ27 KNES 011517
TCSWNP

A. 26W (BOPHA)

B. 01/1430Z

C. 5.6N

D. 139.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE (-29.1 C) IS EMBEDDED IN WHITE FOR EYE NO. OF 6.0
BUT IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CDG FOR .5 ADDED ADJUSTMENT MAKING A DT
OF 6.5. MET IS 6.0. PT IS 6.5. FT IS 6.5 BASED ON DT. NOTE: FT IS ON
THE “HIGH SIDE” OF 6.5 AND COULD VERY SIMPLY BEEN 7.0 EXCEPT FOR A
FEW ISOLATED WHITE PIXELS WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CMG CDO.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GALLINA
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


Thank you sir, good to know. Now I feel like a tool, lol

Which tool, a Hammer or a drill or a pick axe? LOL
It's all good.
Goodnight all
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Today is December 2. Current time is 2:13am
Today is day 2 of Summer.


Thank you sir, good to know. Now I feel like a tool, lol
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384. Skyepony (Mod)
BOPHA
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Quoting StAugustineFL:


I'm not Aussie but in the southern hemisphere it's late spring. Their summer solstice is Dec 21st.

Today is December 2. Current time is 2:13am
Today is day 2 of Summer 2012/13. Summer will end February 28 2013. March 1 2013 will be Autumn.
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Good Morning Folks...Looks like the COC of 91L is moving apart
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381. wxmod
"A newly released study finds that ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are disappearing three times faster than they were two decades ago, the latest evidence supporting the existence of global warming."
http://www.sciencerecorder.com/news/new-study-on- rising-seas-levels-likely-confirms-existence-of-gl obal-warming/
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Goodnight all
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning everyone! Welcome to the world of post-season, chalked full of global warming debates, political discussions, people hoping for snow in Florida, people hoping for colder weather in Florida, people hoping for WARMER weather in Florida, and tornado season.

On to the 2013 year!


LOL..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
Morning everyone! Welcome to the world of post-season, chalked full of global warming debates, political discussions, people hoping for snow in Florida, people hoping for colder weather in Florida, people hoping for WARMER weather in Florida, and tornado season.

On to the 2013 year!
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Aussie.Question....Being December 1 here in the states what is it comparable to where you live?


I'm not Aussie but in the southern hemisphere it's late spring. Their summer solstice is Dec 21st.
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Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER. ON AVERAGE A TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE BASIN DURING
NOVEMBER IN TWO OUT OF EVERY THREE YEARS...WITH A HURRICANE FORMING
ABOUT ONCE EVERY TWO YEARS.

FOR THE 2012 ATLANTIC SEASON...19 NAMED STORMS FORMED...OF WHICH 10
BECAME HURRICANES. ONE OF THOSE HURRICANES...MICHAEL...REACHED
MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. ACTIVITY FOR 2012 WAS WELL ABOVE THE 30-YEAR
(1981-2010) AVERAGE FOR NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES...AND BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MAJOR HURRICANES. THE 1981-2010 SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN ARE 12 NAMED STORMS...6 HURRICANES AND 3
MAJOR HURRICANES. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH
MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING
2012 WAS ABOUT 40 PERCENT ABOVE THE 1981-2010 MEDIAN.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2012ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
------------------------------------------------- --
TS ALBERTO 19-22 MAY 60
TS BERYL 26-30 MAY 70
H CHRIS 19-22 JUN 75
TS DEBBY 23-27 JUN 60
H ERNESTO 1-10 AUG 85
TS FLORENCE* 3-6 AUG 60
H GORDON 15-20 AUG 110
TS HELENE 9-18 AUG 45
H ISAAC 21 AUG-1 SEP 80
TS JOYCE 22-24 AUG 40
H KIRK 28 AUG-2 SEP 105
H LESLIE 30 AUG-11 SEP 75
MH MICHAEL 3-11 SEP 115
H NADINE 11 SEP-4 OCT 90
TS OSCAR 3-5 OCT 50
TS PATTY 11-13 OCT 45
H RAFAEL 12-17 OCT 90
H SANDY 22-29 OCT 110
TS TONY 22-25 OCT 50
------------------------------------------------- --

* DENOTES A STORM FOR WHICH THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS IS COMPLETE.

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT
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Very messy west coast..next 3 days..





Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
NWS Tampa Bay @NWSTampaBay
Weekend Weather Quiz: Despite the official 11/30 end of hurricane season, how many TS or hurricanes have there been in December since 1851?

Answer.... 22
16 TS and 6 Hurricanes.
Link
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Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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