The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close
The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.
Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.
Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.
Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.
Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.
Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!
Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.
Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.
Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.
Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.
Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.
Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.
It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.
No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.
Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.
The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.
Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.
Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.
The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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So, why did you bother to quote such a long post? It's a waste of bandwith.
Because I was thanking Aussie for posting it . I didn't know we were not allowed to quote people ....
anyways I have things to do today .
If Nea had posted it, you wouldn't have said a word.
it's not as if there is much going on except a STY in the WPAC. Go easy mate! Have another cuppa coffee and relax, it's sunday, rest day.
And your point is?
Maybe saying that Joe Bastardi signing it makes it worthless. It would only be worthless to those that don't agree with what JB says.
Not surprising
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:30 PM RET December 2 2012
=================================
Within the northeastern part of the basin, a low is building with a clockwise circulation still poorly defined, located approximately near 9.0S 88.0E at 1000 AM UTC. This area undergoes a moderate to strong Easterly to northeasterly vertical wind shear.
Establishment of the monsoon flow east of 60.0E within the next 24 hours should improve the equatorward inflow of this low. The moderate to strong vertical wind shear should remain the limiting factor of the development until Tuesday.
There is no other suspect area over the basin.
For the next 48 hours, potential for the development of a tropical depression is poor. Beyond potential becomes fair.
BASTARDI: CO2 cannot cause global warming. I’ll tell you why. It doesn’t mix well with the atmosphere, for one. For two, its specific gravity is 1 1/2 times that of the rest of the atmosphere. It heats and cools much quicker. Its radiative processes are much different. So it cannot — it literally cannot cause global warming.
Asked about Bastardi’s statements, Kerry Emanuel of MIT said: “Utter rubbish. Sorry to be so direct, but that is just the case.†NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt added: “Bastardi is attempting to throw out 150 years of physics.†“He seems very confused,†said physicist Richard Muller.
Bastardi may be hoping that when delivered confidently, terms like “specific gravity†and “radiative processes†can convince Fox’s viewers that he knows what he’s talking about. But don’t be fooled; he is again garbling the very basics of climate science. Schmidt explained:
Bastardi doesn’t understand the first thing about the greenhouse effect – it has absolutely nothing to do with the ‘specific gravity’ of CO2 or any other greenhouse gas, it has to do with the fact that GHGs absorb and radiate infra-red heat and in doing so warm the surface of the Earth.
Could be. I wasn't gonna put any words in his mouth tho like what SL was doing to me when he said a couple times, that I was making "hiddin claims" by posting that co2/temp graph. I pointed out the graph speaks for itself. If one doesn't like what it has to say, oh well.
Thanks Mate!
Assie,
I just want to know what these scientists are telling or are going to tell their grandchildren. James Hansen wrote a book to outline his fears for the future that his descendents would have to live in. I can respect that and I try to follow his example. These guys keep repeating the same old lies that have been debunked over and over again.
The emotional result of the acceptance of your part in the destruction of the planet through the use of fossil fuels is life-changing. And that is just too tough on too many of the mediocre.
But it is no excuse for any.
I'm not liking that turn at the end of that run. Could be another hit on the Philippines, Northern/Central Luzon area.
Not all of them are climate scientists or meteorologists.
Things are slow at work this morning, so I checked a few of the names and found:
An astronaut who works as a consultant for offshore oil drilling
An "expert witness" specializing in air quality for an oil company mining tar sands in Alberta
A science adviser for a defunct coal association
And- several more who believe the earth is warming but more research is needed before we decide what the reason is for the warming. (meaning they do not deny warming)
There are several respected names on this list, of course. But with three (and that was on a five minute quick-and-dirty google search) heavily invested in fossil fuel industries, I remain unconvinced that everyone on this list is unbiased. I do realize I just slotted myself right into one of your labels, but so be it.
Have you made changes in you life to retract the amount of CO2 you produce? Has everyone here that believes in AGW done anything to retract there CO2 output? I have, I now ride my bike or walk to work. I have LED lamps. Changed the thermostat on the fridge to an energy saving level from the coldest level.
I'm tired. Goodnight all.
"Whether, when and how atmospheric warming will resume is unknown. The science is unclear."
According to NOAA's NCDC
From 1/1/11 to 12/1/11 in the US.
25,715 new daily high temperature records and 9,180 new daily low temperature records.
From 1/1/12 to 12/1/12 in the US.
32,252 new daily high temperature records and 6,235 new daily low temperature records.
If there were no warming we'd expect those new highs and lows to be about equal. These 125 plus "scientists" need to stop insulting our intelligence.
Dec 2, 2012 10:59 PM Temp 78.1°F Wind East 23mph Hi: 87°F Lo: 78°F Rain: 0.00" Gust: ESE 70 Heat Index: 78°F Humidity: 90% Dew Point: 75°F Avg Wind: 23 ESE Pressure: 29.66" Rain/Month: 0" Sunrise: 5:59 AM Sunset: 5:43 PM Moonphase: Phase As reported at: Palau, NWS Office"
Still way down there too. Really interesting storm.
"Typhoon Bopha Is Now Knocking At the Door in Palau Posted on December 2, 2012 by Oceania TV News By Kassi Berg It is just after 7 pm in Palau. We no longer have power at our home and are connected to the world by a portable generator. We have already lost our signal to the government radio station, EcoParadise, that was covering the storm locally. The first gusts of Typhoon Bopha began around 4pm. Then it stopped. And then it started again. Almost like a persistent neighbor who knocks even when you don’t want to answer the door, Typhoon Bopha keeps coming back. And the winds are stronger each time it returns. Now the betlenut trees are swaying to and fro and the winds are howling. I can hear the sound of banging tin roofs. Curiously there is no rain. But even without rain, we can hear the voice of Bopha upon us. Curfew is in effect and the streets are quiet, that is, except for the police car that has just patrolled our neighborhood. We took a spin around town just as the sun was setting and unlike the businesses, many of the residences still are without any protection from the storm. Some are simply resigned to the fact that they have run out of time to prepare and some just refuse to believe it will be that devastating. One local dive operation has left all of their boats in the water and simply tied them together by rope. Downtown Koror at Sunset Eve of Bopha's Arrival The last we heard the typhoon had jogged slightly south making its main destination Palau’s island of Anguar, but no matter what is the ultimate closest point of Bopha’s approach, it will cloak the entire of this small nation when it passes with its 150 mph wind speed. Typhoon Bopha is expected to last for up to 24 hours. And we anticipate that we will be fighting it the whole time as we try to keep it from invading our homes and ripping them apart. We will continue to provide on the scene coverage; that is, until nature interrupts.
"SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
SOUTH OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN
...very easy to find:
Average of GISS, NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature anomalies from January 1970 through August 2012 (green) with linear trends applied to the timeframes Jan '70 - Oct '77, May '77 - Dec '85, Jan '86 - June '94, Nov '94 - Dec '00, Jan '01 - Aug '12.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 PM PhST December 2 2012
==============================
Typhoon "PABLO" has accelerated and entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility
At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [943 hPa] located at 6.4°N 134.0°E or 810 km southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots gusting up to 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.
State of the sea is rough to phenomenal
Signal Warnings
==============
Signal Warning #1
-----------
Visayas Region
=============
1. Bohol
2. Biliran
3. Camotes Island
4. Southern Leyte
5. Leyte
6. Eastern Samar
7. Western Samar
Mindanao Region
================
1. Surigao del Sur
2. Surigao del Norte
3. Siargao Island
4. Dinagat Is.
5. Agusan del Norte
6. Agusan del Sur
7. Davao Oriental
8. Davao del Norte
9. Samal Is.
10. Compostela Valley
11. Bukidnon
12. Misamis Oriental
13. Camiguin
Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.
Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern Seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
PAGASA track map for Bopha
Which part? The individual data points? The trend line? or the individual "cool" periods?
I think the data comes from the recent BEST (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature ) study (land temps). I presume the trend line from the authors at the site, and the cool periods from a "blogger" like me or you.
From another page on the SS site:
Hat-tip to Skeptical Science contributor Sphaerica for identifying all of these "cooling trends."
I did not source the "heat sink" chart. I am a rookie at this. Go easy on me. But it does seem somewhat logical that IF the planet is warming, some of that heat would warm the water...
Thanks. :) Nice to know someone is open to answering questions. Embarrassed? Moi? Not. lol If I ask, I'll ask in the open, not in mail. (edited after posting)
it's 40% now...forget it... no Valerie from 91L
I agree with you Max..
Way too much shear..
holding my breath.
Maybe perhaps because someone like me called it shenanigans earlier, the new graph brings highest temps down by over 1 degrees C or about 1.8
We also lose a step on the escalator
This is why I say just read the Peer reviewed stuff and don't trust web sites they all have a spin on it.
That's a phoney chart. You can get the real HadCRUT3 chart on google images.
Updated 3 December 2012, 1:12 AEST
Shirley Escalante in Manila, and staff
Parts of the island nation of Palau in the western Pacific are being affected by a powerful typhoon carrying winds of up to 250 kilometres an hour.
Parts of the island nation of Palau in the western Pacific are being affected by a powerful typhoon.
The National Weather Service in Guam says Super Typhoon Bopha is carrying winds of up to 250 kilometres an hour.
Meteorologist Derek Williams says Bopha has the potential to be as devastating as Cylone Tracy which hit the northern Australian city of Darwin in 1974, killing 71 people.
Mr Williams says although Palau's main island has been spared a direct hit, southern outer islands have not been so fortunate and can expect to be inundated over the coming hours.
"Surf, 25 feet or greater... some of those islands are not even 10 feet in height so there's going to be some overwash and pretty high inundation of those smaller islands," Mr Williams told Radio Australia.
Palau is a small Pacific nation of around 21,000 people located to the east of the southern Philippines.
Typhoons rarely hit Palau, which is outside the main typhoon zone.
Source
I've made too many changes to list here. I salute you on yours.
One example from my life: I let almost 400,000 frequent flyer miles expire without the least bit of angst.
IMO, one can't really understand and assimilate what using fossil fuels is dong to the planet without making massive changes to your life. When people tell me they believe in AGW and then make no changes in their life, I frankly think they are not telling the truth.
Can you point me to the real chart? It would be very interesting if the chart on the SS site were a phony.
Question why have two different charts?
Answer because if you look at the raw data is does not jive with the original chart.
try woodfortrees.org
One is temp change, one is anomaly. Apples and oranges, penguins and polar bears.
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