The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

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The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.

Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.


Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.

Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!


Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.

Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.

No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.

Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.

The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.

Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.

Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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I would say the track for Bopha is set in stone, looking at this.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932

Philippines places 5th on 2012 Global Climate Risk Index

MANILA, Philippines - The Philippines had the highest death toll caused by weather-related disasters last year, a new study said Wednesday.

A total of 1,659 people died from typhoons, floods, landslides, and heavy rains in 2011, according to the Global Climate Risk Index released Wednesday by Germanwatch on the sidelines of a major UN climate change conference being held in Doha, Qatar.

Extreme weather-related events also caused more than $1 billion in damages across the Philippines, the study said.







Global Climate Risk Index

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618. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 AM PhST December 2 2012
==============================

The typhoon east of southern Mindanao is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this evening and will be named "PABLO"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Pablo (Bopha) [943 hPa] located at 6.3°N 137.1°E or 1,110 km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots gusting up to 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "PABLO" is still far to directly affect any part of the country. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44724
Just got back from grocery shopping. 91L is also still in the Atlantic and doing fine.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting AussieStorm:
5 people trapped in collapsed Japanese motorway tunnel

ABC/Kyodo


I can't imagine much that would be more terrifying than to be trapped in a collapsing tunnel filled with flames and smoke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
and the roads in Ancient Olympia are flooded.


This made me laugh - not because of flooding which is no joke wherever you are, but at the idea there are "roads" in Ancient Olympia. As I recall, there were some then-dusty mud paths (it was 33 degrees C and dry, dry, dry when I was there) through the games' areas and one road leading up to them and the museum. What a mess that will all be.
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Quoting bappit:

I'd go somewhere else if there is any place safer.

open water wave heights is 52ft. Most of Palau is surrounded by reef, which would knock those wave heights down a fair bit.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning view from motel in Palau, 1.5ft above sea level. Our room on 2nd floor pic.twitter.com/ZmTtEenh


Comms may be erratic over next day or so will update here as best I can #typhoon #Bopha #Palau

I'd go somewhere else if there is any place safer.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5951
Super Typhoon Bopha:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
5 people trapped in collapsed Japanese motorway tunnel

At least five people are feared trapped inside a motorway tunnel west of Tokyo that has collapsed and is billowing smoke.

The Sasago Tunnel on the Chuo Expressway, in Otsuki, Yamanashi Prefecture, has collapsed trapping several vehicles and injuring several people.

There are reports that some vehicles are on fire, and police say the tunnel is billowing massive plumes of black smoke.

The busy motorway tunnel is 80 kilometres west of Tokyo, and police say cars are trapped inside and that some are on fire.

"We have limited information on the accident at the moment but smoke is said to be coming out from the tunnel as an unspecified number of vehicles were burning," a police spokesman said.

It is understood that a tunnel wall has collapsed preventing local firefighters from launching rescue operations.

Fire fighters say there are at least five people trapped in the tunnel as the woman told them that she escaped from a car in which there were five other people.

A reporter for Japan's public broadcaster NHK was driving through the tunnel when he said it started to disintegrate, trapping cars inside.

"I managed to drive through the tunnel but vehicles nearby appeared to have been trapped," he reported.

"Black smoke was coming and there seemed to be a fire inside the tunnel."

The section of expressway between Otsuki junction and Katsunuma junction in the prefecture has been closed, they added.

The expressway connects Tokyo with central and western Japan.

ABC/Kyodo
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Whatever weakening Bopha experienced over the past two hours is probably done now. Cloud tops are once again cooling significantly in the eastern quadrant.

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607. Skyepony (Mod)
Torrential rain has flooded roads in a lot of Greek regions. Three tornadoes hit the island of Zakynthos. Residential buildings and shops are damaged. A passenger train derailed due to the floods in Xanthi, Northern Greece. None of the passengers was injured in the incident. Heavy rain flooded houses and shops in the vicinity of Athens. A tornado caused damages in the region of Katakolon and the roads in Ancient Olympia are flooded.
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Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
The eye is becoming less defined.

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604. Skyepony (Mod)
Ship out there playing in 91L, maybe 50nm from it at one point with a west wind of nearly 10knots. Up to 25kts in other parts of the storm. That ASCAT has some 35kt barbs on it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37337
PAGASA: Approaching typhoon intensifies, moves closer to PHL

A typhoon approaching from the east intensified further as it maintained its west-northwest course, state weather forecasters said early Sunday.

PAGASA forecaster Chris Perez said Typhoon Bopha remains on track to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility between Sunday night and early Monday.

"Nasa karagatan ito, posibleng mag-intensify pa ito. Inaasahan natin dadaanan nito ang Visayas-Mindanao area (It is still at sea so it can still intensify further. We expect it to pass through the Visayas-Mindanao area)," he said in an interview on dzBB radio.

When Bopha enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it will be locally codenamed Pablo.

Perez said the typhoon had intensified, with maximum winds of 175 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 210 kph.

On Saturday afternoon, PAGASA had estimated Bopha's winds at 165 kph and gustiness at up to 200 kph.

Citing PAGASA's forecast models, Perez said the typhoon may bring rain to Bicol, but the rain will not likely be strong enough to cause storm warning signals.

"Mas confined ito sa Visayas-Mindanao region (Our models show the typhoon's effects will be confined to Visayas and Mindanao)," he said.

Typhoon path

As of 4 a.m. Sunday, the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center indicated the typhoon may pass through parts of Visayas and Mindanao and even Southern Luzon and Bicol from Dec. 4 to 6.

The Japan Meteorological Agency's 2:45 a.m. update indicated the typhoon will be "very strong," but may weaken to "strong" early Dec. 5 (http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/).

PAGASA's 5 a.m. bulletin indicated the typhoon was estimated at 1,380 km east of Southern Mindanao as of 2 a.m.

It said the typhoon had maximum sustained winds of 175 kph and gustiness of up to of 210 kph, and is forecast to move west-northwest at 20 kph.

"Bicol region, Eastern Visayas, Mindanao and the provinces of Aurora and Quezon will have partly cloudy skies with isolated brief rain showers or thunderstorms. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience fair weather," it said.

PAGASA also said moderate to strong winds blowing from the east to northeast will prevail over the northern and eastern sections of the country and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough.

Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the east to northeast with slight to moderate seas.

Albay braces vs typhoon

Authorities in Albay are putting on hold the province's annual "Karangahan" month-long green Christmas festival and preparing a preemptive evacuation of residents instead, even as they continue to monitor developments in the approaching typhoon.

Governor Jose Salceda directed the month-long Karangahan Festival placed “on hold” starting December 4, according to a report on state-run Philippines News Agency Saturday.

The PNA report said a full-blown preemptive evacuation in some parts of the province is to start on Dec. 4. — ELR/LBG, GMA News

'Bopha' to hit PH on Tuesday: JTWC

MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon “Bopha” is forecasted to make landfall in the eastern part of Visayas and Mindanao on Tuesday, December 4, according to data by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

JTWC estimated that the typhoon may make landfall in the vicinity of Butuan and Surigao.

It is expected to bring maximum sustained winds of 231 kilometers per hour (kph).

According to Tropical Storm Risk, potential damage from a typhoon of Bopha’s strength includes destruction of mobile homes, damage to doors and windows, damage to ground level structures by the coastline and uprooted trees.

Flooding and storm surge 13 to 18 feet above normal are also expected.

Tropical Storm Risk noted, however, that the warning should only be used as a guide and not be used to “make life or death decisions.”

State weather bureau PAGASA, meanwhile, said the typhoon is still far to affect the country, but it is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Monday.

Once it does, it will be named “Pablo”.

In its weather bulletin on Saturday, PAGASA said the typhoon was last seen 1,600 kilometers east of southern Mindanao with maximum sustained winds of 165 kph and gustiness of up to 200 kph.

PAGASA said it is forecast to move in a west northwest direction at a speed of 20 kph.

Forecasters earlier said the typhoon is expected to be stronger than tropical storm “Sendong”, which caused massive devastation in Mindanao December last year.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting LostInUtah:
hurricaneavoider says:
December 2, 2012 at 9:02 am
Got out of Palau yesterday in a big hurry. I live in New Orleans, we understand what a hurricane can do. I could not believe how the Palauans were taking no action to prepare for this event. The staff at the hotel were not informing the guests, not giving any instructions and making only minimal preparations to the hotel. If this hits, its going to be bad. I wish them the best of luck but someone there needs to tell them what this can do. It was
one of my group who found the storm warning on the internet. We heard nothing on Palauan TV until hours before we left.

http://www.oceaniatv.net/2012/12/01/typhoon-bopha -update-eerie-calm-over-palau-2/

All depends on which island he was on.

All these tweet are from
James Reynolds @typhoonfury
People boarding up windows all over town, locals anxious. Bar owner at Kramers says first time in 16 years he's had to board up windows!


Hearing reports from locals that "curfew" in effect tomorrow from 12pm in Koror. No traffic allowed on streets etc #typhoon #Bopha


Chatting to locals who have evacuated their low lying homes to hotels on higher ground, our hotel full up with "evacuees" #typhoon #Bopha

Boarding up the bar here at Kramer's #typhoon #Bopha pic.twitter.com/VGsFakNY


Hearing unconfirmed reports power will be shut off in Koror tomorrow at midday #typhoon #Bopha

Morning view from motel in Palau, 1.5ft above sea level. Our room on 2nd floor pic.twitter.com/ZmTtEenh


Comms may be erratic over next day or so will update here as best I can #typhoon #Bopha #Palau
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
601. AussieStorm
2:47 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Storm ‘Pablo’ could become supertyphoon

Weather forecasters fear an approaching storm, which is expected to enter the country’s area of responsibility on Monday morning, would turn into a supertyphoon even stronger than the destructive “Sendong” that hit the same threatened area of the country last year.
“In terms of rainfall and wind strength, Typhoon “Bopha” (to be renamed “Pablo” when it enters the country’s area of responsibility) has the potential to be stronger than Sendong,” said Nathaniel Servando, head of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). He was referring to the storm that killed hundreds of residents of Cagayan de Oro and Iligian cities in December 2011.
“This new storm (Pablo) can be very destructive,” Servando said by phone, adding that it was moving in the same direction as Sendong.
Disaster response authorities have ordered local disaster units to prepare to evacuate residents living by rivers and in low-lying areas in Eastern Visayas and eastern Mindanao that may bear the brunt of the storm.
The storm was monitored at 730 km east of southern Philippines on Saturday morning, moving west at 20 kph.
Already it was packing maximum sustained winds of 165 kph. “Considering that it’s still far from the Philippine area of responsibility, it can still grow much stronger,” Servando said.
“Unless it changes direction, this storm appears headed for the same areas in northern Mindanao that Sendong hit,” he added.
“By the time it arrives, it may have become as strong as that,” he said when asked if the typhoon could reach wind strength of 210 kph, which US meteorologists classify as a “superstorm.”
As of Saturday, Bopha had a diameter of 400-500 kilometers. Sendong spanned about 600 kilometers, Servando said.
Servando said disaster officials were right to make early preparations for the storm, which is expected to make landfall either in the northeastern parts of Mindanao or northern Samar on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.
Rare for Mindanao
He said Pablo could bring the same devastation as Sendong, including landslides and flash floods that buried thousands of homes across northern Mindanao on Dec. 16 and 17, 2011.
Sendong left more than 1,200 people dead and destroyed P1.3 billion in agriculture and property.
Residents were largely unprepared as typhoons rarely hit Mindanao unlike Luzon and the Visayas.
Asked what the chances were the storm would veer from its projected path, Servando said: “Almost all our models show it moving in a west northwest direction. But there have been occasions in the past when a storm suddenly changed direction.”
The weather bureau said the storm was still too far away to affect any part of the country “within the next two days.” Even so, Pagasa advised disaster managers to be on the alert.
In its weather outlook for Saturday, Pagasa said the Bicol region, Eastern Visayas and Mindanao will have partly cloudy skies with isolated brief rain showers or thunderstorms. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will experience fair weather, it said.
The National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) has put local disaster response teams on alert.
NDRRMC Executive Director Benito Ramos said on Saturday he had requested that even cockpit arenas not be used starting next week so they could serve as emergency evacuation centers aside from gymnasiums, schools and churches.
“’Wag muna magsabong (Postpone the cockfights),” Ramos said.
“This is a strong (storm). I hope it melts so that we would have a nice Christmas. But the problem is this is a strong one, that’s why we have been preparing for it since (Friday),” Ramos said in Filipino.
Ramos said Sendong killed thousands because it entered at night and caught local residents off guard.
To ensure that such a tragedy would not be repeated, Ramos said the local disaster risk reduction management councils of affected regions in the Visayas and Mindanao have met to prepare evacuation and relief plans.
“Our local responders are ready,” Ramos said.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
600. LostInUtah
2:45 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Typhoon Bopha is forecast to strike the Philippines at about 04:00 GMT on 4 December.Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfall will be near9.4 N,126.7 E.Bopha is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 203 km/h (126 mph).Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofBopha'sstrength (category 3)at landfall includes:

Storm surge generally 2.7-3.7 metres (9-12 feet) above normal.
Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures.
Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down.
Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed.
Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm.
Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris.
Terrain continuously lower than 1.5 metres (5 feet) above mean sea level may be flooded inland 13 km (8 miles) or more.
Evacuation of low-lying residences within several blocks of the shoreline may be required.
There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/typhoon-bopha- is-forecast-to-strike-the-philippines-at-about-040 0-gmt-on-4-december
Member Since: November 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
599. LostInUtah
2:43 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
hurricaneavoider says:
December 2, 2012 at 9:02 am
Got out of Palau yesterday in a big hurry. I live in New Orleans, we understand what a hurricane can do. I could not believe how the Palauans were taking no action to prepare for this event. The staff at the hotel were not informing the guests, not giving any instructions and making only minimal preparations to the hotel. If this hits, its going to be bad. I wish them the best of luck but someone there needs to tell them what this can do. It was
one of my group who found the storm warning on the internet. We heard nothing on Palauan TV until hours before we left.

http://www.oceaniatv.net/2012/12/01/typhoon-bopha -update-eerie-calm-over-palau-2/
Member Since: November 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
598. Skyepony (Mod)
2:42 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
ASCAT grazed 91L
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597. Civicane49
2:36 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Super Typhoon Bopha:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
596. barbamz
2:32 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
I just finished a little vacationing on Palau, provided by youtube (of course there a lot more professional advertising videos on youtube about diving and so on)

Good for an overview:

Landing on Palau



Crusing on Palau:


Island life slideshow


I hope Bopha has some mercy with this beautiful island!
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595. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:30 AM GMT on December 02, 2012

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594. Slamguitar
2:25 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
What an awesome Birthday cake.



Dibs on the car piece!!
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593. AussieStorm
2:24 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
What an awesome Birthday cake.

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592. winter123
2:23 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Pinhole Eye.
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591. AussieStorm
2:22 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting AGWcreationists:
I am referencing media reports from on the ground. Sorry if you think that doing such is misguided.Now, can we PLEASE end this sideshow?

Can you link these media reports. I can reference what James Reynolds is seeing on the ground in Kororo Island, Palau.

I thought we were having a discussion not a side-show.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
590. AussieStorm
2:20 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


wonder why they didn't go with 7.0 (140 knots) or mention that it was this wind speed before it looked a little weaker when the advisory was released..

You should know the JTWC is a bit slow.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
589. AGWcreationists
2:19 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am not "haggling" over anything. Your making it out that people there have no idea a STY is coming. I am stating people are prepared. Big difference.
I am referencing media reports from on the ground. Sorry if you think that doing such is misguided.Now, can we PLEASE end this sideshow?
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
588. allancalderini
2:19 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
__________________________

Major west-central storm

look at the shaded areas...specially the yellow and the red...Over 140 MPH possible at the Sierra Nevada!!!

click imager for bigger view


close-up
And still not Caesar.
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587. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:17 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Big burst of convection over 91L's low-level circulation.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31448
586. Seattleite
2:13 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
__________________________

Major west-central storm

look at the shaded areas...specially the yellow and the red...Over 140 MPH possible at the Sierra Nevada!!!

click imager for bigger view


close-up


Great graphic, thanks for the info!
Member Since: November 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
585. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:13 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
MONUMENT PEAK...south of Lake Tahoe...

NWS forecast... MAJOR HURRICANE GUSTS...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE

Snow before 10pm, then rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 65 to 75 mph increasing to 75 to 85 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 130 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Sunday Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10am. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 70 to 80 mph decreasing to 55 to 65 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 120 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Sunday Night Scattered snow showers before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 35 mph decreasing to 25 to 30 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.


SEE POST #579
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
584. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:12 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

TXPQ27 KNES 012121
TCSWNP

A. 26W (BOPHA)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 5.9N

D. 138.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...VERY IMPRESSIVE BOPHA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY PAST 6 HOURS
AS EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED TO WMG AND EYE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN CMG (USED
CENTER OF EYE TO MEASURE EMBEDDED DISTANCE DUE TO SMALL EYE SIZE LESS THAN
30KM). RING TEMPERATURE IS CDG. THIS MAXES OUT ON TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
FOR CENTRAL FEATURE TO GIVE DT=7.5. MET=7.0 AND PT=7.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI


wonder why they didn't go with 7.0 (140 knots) or mention that it was this wind speed before it looked a little weaker when the advisory was released..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44724
583. AussieStorm
2:09 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting AGWcreationists:
If you want to haggle over thousands versus hundreds dying from this storm, whatever. From what I have read, thousands is not an unreasonable prediction of the death toll that will go down from this supertyphoon.

You may have the last word, as this particular food fight does nothing for the reality on the ground in Palau.

I am not "haggling" over anything. Your making it out that people there have no idea a STY is coming. I am stating people are prepared. Big difference.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
582. AussieStorm
2:07 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


JTWC going with only T6.5 as well? That is sad.

TXPQ27 KNES 012121
TCSWNP

A. 26W (BOPHA)

B. 01/2030Z

C. 5.9N

D. 138.2E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...VERY IMPRESSIVE BOPHA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY PAST 6 HOURS
AS EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED TO WMG AND EYE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN CMG (USED
CENTER OF EYE TO MEASURE EMBEDDED DISTANCE DUE TO SMALL EYE SIZE LESS THAN
30KM). RING TEMPERATURE IS CDG. THIS MAXES OUT ON TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
FOR CENTRAL FEATURE TO GIVE DT=7.5. MET=7.0 AND PT=7.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
581. Civicane49
2:07 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Forecast track of Super Typhoon Bopha:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
580. AGWcreationists
2:07 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Are you not reading what I am saying.... James Reynolds is IN Palau, right now. He states, There IS preparations going on right now, People boarding up, people evacuating from low lying areas to higher elevations. Hotels have opened there doors to those evacuating from low lying areas. There is a curfew from 12pm, there is also unconfirmed reports that the power on the island he is one, Kororo Island, will have it's power turned off at 12pm also. Is that not what you call preparing???

As for the Philippines. The areas that Bopha is forecast to effect are used to storms like Bopha. With the change of head director last year at PAGASA and the election of a new President, there is much more interest from the govt on protecting it's people during such events. TS Washi from last year heightened the alert for people all over the Philippines.

TY Fengshen 2008 path.


TS Washi 2011 path.


STY Bopha forecast track.


If you want to haggle over thousands versus hundreds dying from this storm, whatever. From what I have read, thousands is not an unreasonable prediction of the death toll that will go down from this supertyphoon.

You may have the last word, as this particular food fight does nothing for the reality on the ground in Palau.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
579. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:07 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
__________________________

Major west-central storm

look at the shaded areas...specially the yellow and the red...Over 140 MPH possible at the Sierra Nevada!!!

click imager for bigger view


close-up
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
578. AussieStorm
2:05 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I am aware and I was talking about both as well. Neither have anything remotely close to good building codes and minimal Category 1-type winds has a history of causing a lot of damage there. Winds tonight are expected to be near 150 mph (sustained) in Palau, and will be similar in intensity...maybe a little weaker...for its Tuesday landfall in the Philippines.

People do heed evac warnings when issued by govt departments. Houses can and will be damaged or destroyed. But houses can be rebuilt.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
577. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:04 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
WTPQ30 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 1224 BOPHA (1224)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST-NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.

still about 130 knots (1 min) after 24 hours..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44724
576. Civicane49
2:00 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
575. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:59 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Upgraded to SuperTyphoon at 130kts.


WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 026 br


JTWC going with only T6.5 as well? That is sad.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44724
574. AussieStorm
1:58 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting AGWcreationists:
There are 21,000 people in Palau. That nation is poorly prepared for a major typhoon. And the parts of the Philippenes that Bopha is forecast to track over are not used to such storms.

Are you not reading what I am saying.... James Reynolds is IN Palau, right now. He states, There IS preparations going on right now, People boarding up, people evacuating from low lying areas to higher elevations. Hotels have opened there doors to those evacuating from low lying areas. There is a curfew from 12pm, there is also unconfirmed reports that the power on the island he is one, Kororo Island, will have it's power turned off at 12pm also. Is that not what you call preparing???

As for the Philippines. The areas that Bopha is forecast to effect are used to storms like Bopha. With the change of head director last year at PAGASA and the election of a new President, there is much more interest from the govt on protecting it's people during such events. TS Washi from last year heightened the alert for people all over the Philippines.

TY Fengshen 2008 path.


TS Washi 2011 path.


STY Bopha forecast track.


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
573. pottery
1:58 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Upgraded to SuperTyphoon at 130kts.


WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 6.1N 137.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.1N 137.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 6.8N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.5N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 8.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 10.9N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.5N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.2N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 6.3N 137.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 52
FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN


Wow.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24023
572. Tropicsweatherpr
1:51 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
Upgraded to SuperTyphoon at 130kts.


WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 6.1N 137.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.1N 137.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 6.8N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.5N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 8.3N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.1N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 10.9N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.5N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.2N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 6.3N 137.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 52
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14002
571. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:42 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
However, this is a good sign for Palau.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31448
570. oldnewmex
1:42 AM GMT on December 02, 2012
You know something is up with the weather when TWC is in town. That, as well as sandbag stations and evac. centers. Oh, well. Truckee may get a little soggy tomorrow, but at least we're not on Palau - I don't know how anyone could survive something like that.
Member Since: January 28, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 165

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.