The bizarrely active hurricane season of 2012 draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:50 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

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The long and highly destructive hurricane season of 2012 has finally drawn to a close. The hurricane season of 2012 will long be remembered for spawning Hurricane Sandy--a freakish storm that was the largest, most powerful, and second most destructive Atlantic hurricane on record. But this year's hurricane season had a number of unique attributes, making it one of the most bizarre seasons I've witnessed. Despite featuring a remarkable nineteen named storms--tied for the third highest total since record keeping began in 1851--this year's hurricane season had just one major hurricane. That storm was Hurricane Michael, which stayed at Category 3 strength for a scant six hours. This is the least number of major hurricanes in a season since the El Niño year of 1997, which had only Category 3 Hurricane Erika. There were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes in 2012, for just the 3rd time since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. The only two other years since 1995 without a Category 4 or stronger hurricane were the El Niño years of 2006 and 1997. Both of those seasons had around half the number of named storms of 2012--nine in 2006, and eight in 1997. The relative lack of strong storms in 2012 helped keep the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) down to 128, about 30% above average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

A near-average year for number of tropical cyclones hitting the U.S.
Since the active hurricane period we've been in began in 1995, the U.S. has averaged getting hit by 4 named storms per year, with an average of 1.7 of these being hurricanes, and 0.6 being major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes. This year, we were hit by 3 named storms (Beryl, Debby, and Isaac). One of these was a hurricane (Isaac). Sandy didn't count as a hurricane strike on the U.S., since it transitioned to an extratropical cyclone a few hours before landfall. No major hurricanes hit the U.S., making 2012 the 7th consecutive year without a major hurricane strike. The only other time we've had a streak that long occurred between 1861 - 1868, during the decade of the Civil War.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2004 - 2012 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere (note that the same scale is not used in all the plots, making the black climatological line appear different, when it is really the same for each plot.) Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability was near average during the August - October peak of hurricane season in 2004 - 2009, but was much lower than average during the hurricane seasons of 2010 - 2012. There was an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic during 2010 - 2012, and the resulting low atmospheric instability reduced the proportion of tropical storms that have intensified into hurricanes. Vertical instability from 2004 - 2011 is taken from NOAA/RAMMB and for 2012 from NOAA/SSD.

Unusually stable air over the Tropical Atlantic in 2012
For the third consecutive hurricane season, 2012 featured an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Due to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and an active African Monsoon that generated plenty of African waves, a remarkably high number of tropical storms managed to form, but the unusually stable air in the hurricane genesis regions made it difficult for the storms to become strong. When we did see storms undergo significant intensification, it tended to occur outside of the tropics, north of 25°N, where there was not as much dry, sinking air (Sandy's intensification as it approached landfall in Cuba was an exception to this rule.) If we look at the last nine hurricane seasons (Figure 2), we can see that the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 all featured similar levels of highly stable air over the tropical Atlantic. This is in marked contrast to what occurred the previous six years. The past three seasons all featured a near-record number of named storms (nineteen each year), but an unusually low ratio of strong hurricanes. Steering patterns the past three years also acted to keep most of the storms out to sea. Is this strange pattern something we'll see more of, due to climate change? Or is it mostly due to natural cycles in hurricane activity? I don't have any answers at this point, but the past three hurricane seasons have definitely been highly unusual in a historical context. I expect the steering currents to shift and bring more landfalling hurricanes to the U.S. at some point this decade, though.


Figure 3. Sea water floods the Ground Zero construction site at the World Trade Center, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012, in New York City. Image credit: AP.

Most notable events of the Hurricane Season of 2012
Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lake Shore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!


Figure 4. Hurricane Isaac lit up by moonlight as it spins towards the city of New Orleans, LA, on August 26, 2012. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite captured these images with its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The "day-night band" of VIIRS detects light in a range of wavelengths from green to near-infrared and uses light intensification to enable the detection of dim signals. Image Credit: NASA/NOAA, Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Isaac hit Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 28, but the storm's massive wind field brought a storm surge characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane to the coast. A storm surge of 11.1 feet was measured at Shell Beach, LA and higher surges were reported in portions of Louisiana. Fortunately, the new $14.5 billion upgrade to the New Orleans levee system kept the city dry. Isaac killed 9 people in the U.S., and 29 in the Caribbean.

Hurricane Ernesto hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on August 7. The storm killed 12 and did at least $250 million in damage.

Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, the earliest formation date on record for the season's 4th storm. The previous record was Dennis, on July 5, 2005. Debby killed seven and did over $300 million in damage, but helped relieve drought conditions over Northern Florida and Southern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Beryl, which made landfall on May 28 near Jacksonville Beach, FL with 70 mph winds, was the strongest tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. prior to June 1. Beryl killed two but did minimal damage.

Nadine lasted for 21.75 days as a named storm, the 5th longest-lasting tropical storm in the Atlantic basin.

It was the 3rd year in a row with 19 named storms.

No named storms existed during the month of July and November, but we still managed big numbers.

Only 7 seasons have had more hurricanes than 2012.

The season had two named storm before the official June 1 start of hurricane season, only the 3rd time that has occurred.

Eight named storms formed in August, which tied 2004 for the most to form in that month.

Typhoon Bopha a threat to the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, where typhoon season commonly brings several storms in December, we have impressive Typhoon Bopha. Bopha is expected to head west-northwest and intensify over the weekend, potentially arriving in the Philippines on Tuesday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon. Bopha formed at an unusually low latitude for a tropical cyclone--near 4°N. Storms forming that close to the Equator don't get much help from the Earth's spin to get spinning, and it is rare to see a tropical cyclone forming southwards of 5°N.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, has a more in-depth summary of the 2012 hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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Good Morning Folks,still no rain by me, been about 6 weeks now, could use a few showers by me here............
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668. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #54
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
18:00 PM JST December 2 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (935 hPa) located at 6.4N 135.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 7.5N 130.3E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East of Mindanao (Philippines)
45 HRS: 9.5N 126.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East of Mindanao (Philippines)
69 HRS: 11.4N 121.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
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Quoting yonzabam:
Looks like Bopha's eye is going to be a tad south of Palau.


Which is a worse situation for them than earlier, when the JTWC had the eye passing north. The northern quadrant is generally worse than the western one, especially with a system moving westward.
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Quoting Skyepony:
BOPHA
CI 7.1
899.7mb
mean cloud -79.09


TXPQ27 KNES 020337
TCSWNP

A. 26W (BOPHA)

B. 02/0230Z

C. 6.4N

D. 136.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/7.5/W1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF BOPHA HAS DETERIORATED IN PAST
6 HOURS. EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND WARMED AND ALSO APPEARS TO
HAVE DECREASED IN DIAMETER. CENTRAL FEATURE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AROUND EYE REMAIN VERY COLD (CDG) ALTHOUGH WIDTH HAS DECREASED. THERE
IS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE INDICATING POSSIBLE WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS HAS ALSO AFFECTED
DT DETERMINATION SINCE GRADIENT IS RIGHT AROUND .5 DEGREE EMBEDDED
DISTANCE. HAVE USED SURROUNDING TEMPERATURE OF B (.5 DEGREE) WITH B EYE
AND CDG RING TEMPERATURE FOR CF=5.5. WAS ABLE TO ADD .5 FOR BANDING WITH
WARM WEDGE WRAPPING AROUND WESTERN SEMICIRCLE TO GIVE DT=6.0. MET=6.5
BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPMENT TREND AND PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RUMINSKI
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Looks like Bopha's eye is going to be a tad south of Palau.
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Just did a blog on 91L and Bopha.
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Here is a test video shot by James Reynolds who is currently on Koror Island, Palau. 42 mins ago.

Video
(Best viewed in full screen)

Compare that video to this photo from 2hrs ago.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940


Forecast track looks even more certain with that huge zonal flow over China. Seriously, I've rarely seen zonal patterns as strong as this one.
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OSCAT shows a 35kt wind barb and a well defined circulation.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7952
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
It's at least a TD, but if you were a ship on the high seas, I expect you would call it a TS.


I don't think that it is. The circulation is well-defined, but the convection isn't really wrapping.
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659. JLPR2


Looks promising.
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658. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST December 2 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (935 hPa) located at 6.4N 136.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 7.5N 130.9E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) East of Mindanao (Philippines)
48 HRS: 9.5N 126.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East of Mindanao (Philippines)
72 HRS: 11.4N 121.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Still no Valerie. lol



Then there's this bad boy:

It's at least a TD, but if you were a ship on the high seas, I expect you would call it a TS.
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A super typhoon, a lot of wet weather out there and crazy weather down under. Hope you all take care. Around here, despite a ton of rain this year, when Mother Nature turned off her taps we fell fast.

With little help from Mother Nature over the past week, the drought has continued to strengthen and expand across Southeast Texas.

Since January 1st through November 30th, the Primary Climate Station at the Jack Brooks Regional Airport (BPT) has received 57.36 inches of rain. This is 2.18 inches above normal or 4% above normal for the year.

Since September 1st through November 30th (BPT) has only received 8.34 inches of rainfall. This is 7.61 inches or 47% below normal since September 1st.

Long-term forecasts show more of the same...below normal rainfall with the drought continuing to worsen through Mid-February.
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655. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST December 2 2012
================================

The low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal persists. The low lays centered within half a degree of 11.5N 87.5E. Center is poorly defined and wind shear is of the order of 10-20 knots over the region.

Dvorak intensity: T1.0
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Still no Valerie. lol



Then there's this bad boy:

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Quoting VaStormGuy:




Here's your complimentary hat, sir.
I can't pull a rabbit out of that one, but I sure did with "S"andy.

Rise Antarctica ...
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Quoting Brunski:


...for which we are all grateful.

Thanks.... but "Some" people aren't.



Breaking News Storm @breakingstorm
The National Weather Service issued a flood warning for California's Truckee River from late Saturday night into Monday morning
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651. DDR
Light rain and heavy mist outside
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Quoting AussieStorm:

It came across my twitter feed so I posted it. Anything weather related I post.


...for which we are all grateful.
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649. DDR
Good morning
Its been raining for the last 20 hours or so off and on 2 inches in the gauge,expecting 4-6 inches in the coming days,here in Trinidad.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Actually, those graphs are from the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS). They are created by a contractor for the weather service.

http://water.weather.gov

Thank you for the correction and the link
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Quoting Brunski:


Unusual to see P-town mentioned here on the tropical blog (and by someone from the other side of the world no less). The same area flooded back in 2006, my office building took 1/2 foot of water inside, it was expensive and muddy but we stayed open.
Rain and wind already picking up in Santa Rosa.

It came across my twitter feed so I posted it. Anything weather related I post.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting AussieStorm:
City of Petaluma Issues Flood Alert

The northern end of the Petaluma River is expected to flood within the next 18 hours, Petaluma police and fire officials warned this evening.....

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Unusual to see P-town mentioned here on the tropical blog (and by someone from the other side of the world no less). The same area flooded back in 2006, my office building took 1/2 foot of water inside, it was expensive and muddy but we stayed open.
Rain and wind already picking up in Santa Rosa.
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Quoting RenoSoHill:
Flood warning in Reno NV for Sunday Dec 2 - Graph by RGJ news



Actually, those graphs are from the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS). They are created by a contractor for the weather service.

http://water.weather.gov
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
And, at risk of being burned at the "willful denying" stake, here's a tip for those "in the know" about global warming. If you and/or others really wish for me and/or others to understand, it could be helpful if you explained these things instead of just throwing them out there like you and one other responder did with the phrase, "thermal expansion." I have no idea how this relates to sea / ice loss or (add: how it relates) to anything about global warming. Some of us are more nature lovers than scientific types, and we may be more likely to throw our hands up in the air than take the time to look up that kind of stuff.

Just ask the question... either as a blockquote/reply, or as a personal message. It means far more to ask people who keep up-to-date in these areas than it does to play google galileo with graphics you just find online. Usually people can tell the difference between questions asked in a facetious manner and those asked due to a real desire to learn. If you are too embarassed to do it on the main comment board just send me a private message... I might not do all the work and feed it to you, but I'll at least point you in the right direction :)
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Quoting Slamguitar:


2005 taught us many lessons.

Obviously JB didn't learn anything from that season and seasons since.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
NHC what the heck, Its over 23C water at 30 north and you have a 50% chance. cmon guys, what about the 26C criteria?


2005 taught us many lessons.
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Flood warning in Reno NV for Sunday Dec 2 - Graph by RGJ news

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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
In the movie "Avatar" we see a planet capable of intervention on its own behalf. Is it so hard to believe that the earth is capable?

At the birth of hurricane Irene last year, a curious piece of art appeared that would lay the foundation of a future forecast. It connected an iconic movie with a provocative name, set in New York City to the lead character of a popular TV series, which just happened to be the "K" storm in this year’s list.

Seemingly unrelated, these odd pieces would fit together perfectly to provide a backdrop for a tragic weather event in U.S. history.

Here are those odd pieces:

1) Hurricane Irene - sets the stage
2) The Devil Wears Prada - set in New York, NY
3) The "S" card, oddly tagged by the #7(Katrina to Isaac - exactly 7 years)
4) The "Kirk" - the character and the storm, which would mark the death of Neil Armstrong in history; the real life man who went where no man had gone before.

Highlighted not once, but twice, the "S" storm would be the one to watch, as even its track would follow an "S" shaped curve, on the heels of Irene.

Why connect these seemingly unrelated elements together, as part of a hurricane forecast?

The answer is, to formally establish the office of Earthland Security, which will watch over the earth's many interests, enlisting the animals as spies, and utilizing her many natural powers to stamp out the poisonous aspirations of men.

Her first order will be to nominate two directors.




Ummmm, ok?
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Nothing below 20C can support Tropical Intensification. But it could sustain something like 91L. The invest still has a Chance, the shear hasn't quite relaxed yet, it is forecasted to over the next 18 hours, and it could make a quick run at becoming a storm. It will be absorbed into a front in about 72 Hours or so.


Well I'm not sure if nothing could completely apply, never underestimate the natural world :)

But yeah I mean anything below 20C is just getting too cool, but I never said 20C I said under 26C
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In the movie "Avatar" we see a planet capable of intervention on its own behalf. Is it so hard to believe that the earth is capable?

At the birth of hurricane Irene last year, a curious piece of art appeared that would lay the foundation of a future forecast. It connected an iconic movie with a provocative name, set in New York City to the lead character of a popular TV series, which just happened to be the "K" storm in this years list.

Seemingly unrelated, these odd pieces would fit together perfectly to provide a backdrop for a tragic weather event in U.S. history.

Here are those odd pieces:

1) Hurricane Irene - sets the stage
2) The Devil Wears Prada - set in New York, NY
3) The "S" card, oddly tagged by the #7(Katrina to Isaac - exactly 7 years)
4) The "Kirk" - the character and the storm, which would mark the death of Neil Armstrong in history; the real life man who went where no man had gone before.

Highlighted not once, but twice, the "S" storm would be the one to watch, as even its track would follow an "S" shaped curve, on the heels of Irene.

Why connect these seemingly unrelated elements together, as part of a hurricane forecast?

The answer is, to formally establish the office of Earthland Security, which will watch over the earth's many interests, enlisting the animals as spies,[1] [2] and utilizing her natural powers to stamp out the poisonous aspirations of men.

Her first order will be to nominate two directors.

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Quoting Jedkins01:



Joe B. did actually go to school for meteorology right? He seems to have forgotten that the 26C water temp is not a magic number. It's agreed general threshold of tropical cyclone formation and intensification used for classification purposes. However, water temps quite a bit below 26C can actually sustain a tropical cyclone or even allow intensity given say an equivalent temperature differential found normally with 26C waters. Instability is obviously the difference between temps aloft and temps at the surface.

Now the reason for why a tropical cyclone can form or intensify with temps below 26c is obviously more complex than that. I just gave a brief generalization. However Joe B. should be aware that it is possible for a tropical cyclone to intensify with water temps below 26C. Especially since it has happened several times in history as well.
Nothing below 20C can support Tropical Intensification. But it could sustain something like 91L. The invest still has a Chance, the shear hasn't quite relaxed yet, it is forecasted to over the next 18 hours, and it could make a quick run at becoming a storm. It will be absorbed into a front in about 72 Hours or so.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
NHC what the heck, Its over 23C water at 30 north and you have a 50% chance. cmon guys, what about the 26C criteria?



Joe B. did actually go to school for meteorology right? He seems to have forgotten that the 26C water temp is not a magic number. It's agreed general threshold of tropical cyclone formation and intensification used for classification purposes. However, water temps quite a bit below 26C can actually sustain a tropical cyclone or even allow intensity given say an equivalent temperature differential found normally with 26C waters. Instability is obviously the difference between temps aloft and temps at the surface.

Now the reason for why a tropical cyclone can form or intensify with temps below 26c is obviously more complex than that. I just gave a brief generalization. However Joe B. should be aware that it is possible for a tropical cyclone to intensify with water temps below 26C. Especially since it has happened several times in history as well.
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Quoting Patrap:
Joe is a Nuisance,..really.


Esp here where science and logic is used.


I guess he forgot about Michael, Nadine and Tony. Might be going senile in his old age.
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City of Petaluma Issues Flood Alert

The northern end of the Petaluma River is expected to flood within the next 18 hours, Petaluma police and fire officials warned this evening.

The Sonoma County Emergency Coordinator has said that heavy rains expected this evening will arrive earlier and bring more rain than initially predicted, according to a statement from Petaluma Fire Battalion Chief Jeff Holden.

"We will be monitoring the streams and gauges but please don't expect any alerts from the from the Fire Department during this time frame," Holden said. "If flooding does occur, we will be out isolating flood areas and responding to calls for assistance." Residents are urged to call 911 if they need assistance.

The Napa and Russian rivers are expected to reach flood stage Sunday and Monday, according to the National Weather Service.

The third storm in recent days is expected to arrive Saturday evening and continue into Sunday, bringing an additional seven to eight inches of rain in higher elevations. The North Bay is expected to see the heaviest rains, according to the weather service forecast. The Russian River will reach flood stage in Guerneville around 2 a.m. Monday morning, with water at 31.7 feet, and crest around noon at 35 feet, the National Weather Service said.

The Napa River is expected to reach flood stage in St. Helena around noon on Sunday, with water at heights of 15.9 feet, and crest around 3 p.m. at 17.8 feet, the National Weather Service said.

In Napa it is expected to reach flood stage around 1 p.m. Sunday, with water at heights of 25.2 feet, and between 5 and 6 p.m. with water levels reaching nearly 27 feet. The flooding in Napa is expected to focus in a "largely agricultural and minimally developed area" around Oak Knoll Avenue, about five miles north of the city itself, according to Napa Community Outreach Coordinator Barry Martin. Napa officials project that the river will remain mostly within its banks south of Lincoln Avenue, but there could be minor flooding near the Lincoln Avenue Bridge.

The lower portion of Veterans Memorial park could also be inundated, as designed by city flood control projects, Martin said.

Veterans Memorial Park and the Riverfront Promenade in Napa, as well as Oxbow Preserve Park will be closed to the public throughout Sunday, Martin said. The National Weather Service has also issued a flash flood watch for the North Bay through Monday and a wind advisory from 10 p.m. Saturday through 10 a.m. Sunday, Martin said. Winds are expected to reach 20 to 30 mph at lower elevations and up to 50 mph gusts at higher elevations.

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Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Joe is a Nuisance,..really.


Esp here where science and logic is used.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whatever weakening Bopha experienced over the past two hours is probably done now. Cloud tops are once again cooling significantly in the eastern quadrant.



Looks to me like the eye wall is soon to collapse...
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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
NHC what the heck, Its over 23C water at 30 north and you have a 50% chance. cmon guys, what about the 26C criteria?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
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James Reynolds ‏@typhoonfury
Lots of low lying roads here which could be subject to big damage from surge #typhoon #Bopha pic.twitter.com/dg2ci2Tz

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
2012 Atlantic Basin
Storms for 2012 Atlantic Basin







Tropical Storm Alberto
Tropical Storm Beryl
Hurricane Chris
Tropical Storm Debby
Hurricane Ernesto
Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Helene
Hurricane Gordon
Hurricane Isaac
Tropical Storm Joyce
Hurricane Kirk
Hurricane Leslie
Hurricane Michael
Hurricane Nadine
Tropical Storm Oscar
Tropical Storm Patty
Hurricane Rafael
Hurricane Sandy
Tropical Storm Tony

VALERIE Unborn
WILLIAM Unborn
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Bopha

RainBow TOP Animated GIF

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Quoting AztecCe:
we got orange circle? holy shinanigans

What??
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
we got orange circle? holy shinanigans
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I would say the track for Bopha is set in stone, looking at this.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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