Nineteen Atlantic tropical storms 3 consecutive years: a very rare event

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 PM GMT on November 28, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season closes this Friday with another top-five tally for named storms--nineteen. This is the third consecutive year with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic, which is a remarkable level of activity for a three-year period. The closest comparable three-year period of activity occurred during 2003 - 2004 - 2005, when each season had fifteen-plus named storms. Since 1851, only two seasons--2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (20 named storms)--have been busier than 2010, 2011, and 2012.


Figure 1. Preliminary tracks of the nineteen named storms from 2012. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

How rare are 3 consecutive top-five hurricane seasons for named storms?
It is tremendously rare to get three consecutive top-five years in a database with a 162-year record. This would occur randomly just once every 34,000 years--assuming the database were unbiased, the climate were not changing, and a multi-year climate pattern favorable for active seasons were not present. However the database IS biased, the climate IS changing, and we have been in an active hurricane period that began in 1995. So, which of these factors may be responsible for recording three consecutive years with nineteen named storms? It is well-known that prior to the arrival of geostationary satellites in December 1966 and aircraft hurricane reconnaissance in 1945 that tropical storms in the Atlantic were under-counted. Landsea et al. (2004) theorized that we missed up to six named storms per year between 1851 - 1885, and up to four between 1886 - 1910. Landsea (2007) estimated the under-count to be 3.2 named storms per year between 1900 - 1965, and 1.0 per year between 1966 - 2002. Other studies have argued for lower under-counts. So, if we assume the highest under-counts estimated by Landsea et al. (2004) and Landsea (2007), here would be the top ten busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1851:

2005: 28
1887: 25
1933: 23
1995: 20
2012, 2011, 2010, 1969, 1936: 19

So, 2012, 2011, and 2010 would still rank as top-five busiest seasons since 1851, but the odds of having three consecutive seasons with nineteen named storms would drop from a 1-in-34,000 year event to "only" a 1-in-5800 year event. More recently, Landsea et al. (2010) showed that the increasing trend in North Atlantic tropical storm frequency over the past 140 years was largely due to the increasing trend in short‐lived storms (storms lasting 2 days or less, called “shorties”), after the 1940s (Figure 2, top). They did not detect a significant increasing trend in medium‐ to long‐lived storms lasting more than 2 days. They wrote that “while it is possible that the recorded increase in short‐duration TCs [tropical cyclones] represents a real climate signal, we consider it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of the observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques.” Villarini et al. (2011), in a paper titled, "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", agreed. They attempted to correlate increases in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures in recent decades to the increase in short-lived Atlantic tropical storms, and were unable to do so. They wrote: using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century‐scale record of short‐lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long‐term secular increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days. So, let's do that. If we look during the past three hurricane seasons at how many "shorties" were observed, we see that a large number that stayed at tropical storm strength for two days or less: six storms in 2010, six in 2011, and seven in 2012. This leaves the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 with twelve to thirteen tropical storms that lasted more than two days. This doesn't stand out that much when looking at trends since 1878 (Figure 2, bottom); there are now 25 years in the 135-year record with twelve or more long-lived tropical cyclones. However, there are no previous occurrences of three consecutive years with at least twelve long-lived tropical storms, so 2010, 2011, and 2012 still represent an unprecedented level of tropical storm activity in the historical record, and we would expect such an event to occur randomly about once every 157 years. That's a pretty rare event, and it is possible that climate change, combined with the fact we are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, contributed to this rare event.


Figure 2. Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1878 - 2012 that spent two days or less at tropical storm strength (top) and more than two days at tropical storm strength or hurricane strength (bottom.) Figure updated from Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493.

References
Landsea, C. W., C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Dunion, J. Fernandez‐Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer (2004), "The Atlantic hurricane database re‐analysis project: Documentation for 1851–1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database," in Hurricanes and Typhoons ‐ Past, Present, and Future, edited by R. J. Murnane and K. B. Liu, pp. 178–221, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.

Landsea, C. W., (2007), "Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900," Eos, 88(18), 197-202.

Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MidMOwx:


I think it's time to put the beer back into the refrigerator.

18Z GFS @ 204 hours. Might get another chill in my part of the country.

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Quoting yoboi:



lol sure like neap obese brother analogy on the sofa sure...


I think it's time to put the beer back into the refrigerator.

18Z GFS @ 204 hours.

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Quoting yoboi:



lol sure like neap obese brother analogy on the sofa sure...


??? As they say on Wikipedia: you have a diff for that? (Trans: show me what you mean.)
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
Quoting Civicane49:


Nah. I think it is developing a ragged eye. Atmospheric environment is moist around Bopha.

Quoting wxchaser97:

There is no dry air surrounding the circulation and microwave imagery suggested an eye was forming so I will go with actual eye.


of wow.... whoops!

So is it really doing it now?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im back from work now...

Is the eye looking feature an eye really or dry air...I think its dry air

There is no dry air surrounding the circulation and microwave imagery suggested an eye was forming so I will go with actual eye.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im back from work now...

Is the eye looking feature an eye really or dry air...I think its dry air


Nah. I think it is developing a ragged eye. Atmospheric environment is moist around Bopha.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


That would be a problem for people in the Philippines unaware of the cyclone unless PAGASA alerted them way advanced. However, their friends and relatives from other countries can alert them if they are aware of the storm. People in the provinces can find satellite images and the forecast of the storm's path from different weather sites other than PAGASA.

People there are just not aware. I have been there 4 times. Last time we had a TS pass by and it dumped about 4inches in 10minutes, I have never seen rain like it ever before. The street flooded in minutes of the rain starting. the street was under 2ft of water after 20mins. We had people grabbing there stuff and bringing it into our house cause our house is built 4ft above street level. we must of had 30-50 people in our house. it was crazy. 2hrs later the water had gone and the clean up was underway.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Im back from work now...

Is the eye looking feature an eye really or dry air...I think its dry air
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
667. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


Could your potential readers put in a request for standard punctuation and sentence structure? :)



lol sure like neap obese brother analogy on the sofa sure...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
666. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting MrMixon:
Rules of the Road:

3. No Monomania.

Since most of us don't use this word in our daily lives, I'll provide the definition here:

mono·ma·nia noun \ˌmä-nə-ˈmā-nē-ə, -nyə\

1: mental illness especially when limited in expression to one idea or area of thought
2: excessive concentration on a single object or idea


So I'm thinking... now I'm just speculating here... that perhaps people don't get banned for posting forbidden data. Rather, perhaps they get banned for violating one of the Rules of the Road.


I think you have hit the point on the head ..
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Quoting txjac:


Thanks for the response Nea.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Lewis Page--the author of that opinion piece--is a pretty rabid denialist, cranking out piece after illogical piece with titles like "Global warming still stalled since 1998", "Climate NON-change: No increase in droughts since 1950", "An ICE AGE is coming, only CO2 can save us", and "Low sunspot activity linked to rivers freezing: Mini Ice Age on way?". In other words, he can be easily dismissed as the low-knowledge, anti-science crank that he is.

Now, one need only read a few snippets of Page's newest piece to realize how seriously off the mark he is. The PNAS article looked at Greenland ice mass change over a 9-year period, and noted that the mass loss trend had remained linear. It also noted that the SE and NW coasts of Greenland were losing ice the quickest, while the center of Greenland had been slowing gaining ice. How Lewis jumped from there to the assumption that a) maximum global sea level rise by 2100 will be 30cm, b) it will probably be less than that, c) there'll thus be "hardly any" difference between sea level now and then, and d) there's no reason to worry.

I rarely read such silliness--and for very good reason.


If one calculates the mass of the ice sheet from its volume, and using the 200 Gt/yr figure, on a linear basis, the time to melt the entire ice sheet is in the ballpark of 13000 years, as Page claims. Again, using the 6.5 m sea level rise if the entire ice sheet melts in 13K years, 118 years of melting gives approximately 5cm of sea level rise. You can discuss the reality of the linearity of melting over 13K years but the numbers are correct.
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664. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

You probably got banned cause to many people "-" your comment.


nah it was late and a slow time on blog....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rules of the Road:

3. No Monomania.

Since most of us don't use this word in our daily lives, I'll provide the definition here:

mono·ma·nia noun \ˌmä-nə-ˈmā-nē-ə, -nyə\

1: mental illness especially when limited in expression to one idea or area of thought
2: excessive concentration on a single object or idea


So I'm thinking... now I'm just speculating here... that perhaps people don't get banned for posting forbidden data. Rather, perhaps they get banned for violating one of the Rules of the Road.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting AussieStorm:

They wouldn't know anything about it. I've been doing my bit, but it depends on when PAGASA and the media there start forecasting it. Most people in the provinces have cell phones, they use them for FB and texting only.


That would be a problem for people in the Philippines unaware of the cyclone unless PAGASA alerted them way advanced. However, their friends and relatives from other countries can alert them if they are aware of the storm. People in the provinces can find satellite images and the forecast of the storm's path from different weather sites other than PAGASA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:


the only ground rule i ask for is no cussing....no holds bar data gets submitted...


Could your potential readers put in a request for standard punctuation and sentence structure? :)
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
Quoting yoboi:


i got banned within in 2 min the other night when i submitted some data it was a big taboo

You probably got banned cause to many people "-" your comment.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
658. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


I doubt very much that "safety" is his issue. It was yours, however. You asked for assurance that you wouldn't get banned.


i got banned within in 2 min the other night when i submitted some data it was a big taboo
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
3) The recent drought that ravaged most of the country’s farmland spurred a dust storm in October that stretched across Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. It was so big that it could be seen from space.

Betting on fossil water

What stands between the United States and another environmental catastrophe that leaves millions of acres blowing in the wind is the Ogallala aquifer, which covers about 175,000 square miles. Geologic action created this reservoir more than a million years ago.

Like oil, this is fossil water that cannot be renewed once it is pumped out. Some 82 percent of the people living above the aquifer depend on it for clean drinking water. Stunningly, much of this precious and irreplaceable water is being used to grow corn to feed pigs and turkeys.

More worrisome, today nearly half the water is gone. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, it “is being depleted at an unsustainable rate.”

In Burns’ film, Charles Shaw of Cimarron County, Oklahoma, says, “The only thing holding that ground together is that irrigation water that comes out of the Ogallala…we only got about 20 years of water left.”
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6032
656. yoboi
Quoting Bielle:


I doubt very much that "safety" is his issue. It was yours, however. You asked for assurance that you wouldn't get banned.


the only ground rule i ask for is no cussing....no holds bar data gets submitted...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
worth reading IMHO

PBS Raises Modern Day Dust Bowl Questions
By K. McDonald on November 28th, 2012

A recent 4-hour PBS Special, “The Dust Bowl”, by Ken Burns, was widely watched. The following writing is related to that show and is by the Environmental Working Group’s Senior Advisor, Don Carr (Twitter @DonEWG). Coincidentally, NOAA’s “Significant Events for October 2012″ report included this: “Strong winds combined with drought conditions to create a large dust storm across CO, KS, NE, OK, and WY on Oct 17-18 closing several major highways.” (Below, is a NASA space photo of that dust storm.) One of the take-away messages here is this — we as taxpayers do not want to decouple good land stewardship from subsidy payments to farmers — something currently on the agenda as this farm bill gets reworked.

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6032
Quoting yoboi:


i sent him an e-mail whatever makes him feel safe i will go for....


I doubt very much that "safety" is his issue. It was yours, however. You asked for assurance that you wouldn't get banned.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
652. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

But if you challenge Nea to a debate on a personal blog and you link it here. And no one else can comment in the blog, just a read only blog so it's between you and Nea only. It would be interesting, to say the least.


i sent him an e-mail whatever makes him feel safe i will go for....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
Quoting yoboi:



how ever he wants to do it we had one about 6 months ago and i got banned when i opened up the war chest....since then he won't respond because it was brutal

But if you challenge Nea to a debate on a personal blog and you link it here. And no one else can comment in the blog, just a read only blog so it's between you and Nea only. It would be interesting, to say the least.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting Civicane49:


Well, I hope residents in the Philippines are prepared by monitoring Bopha without warning.

They wouldn't know anything about it. I've been doing my bit, but it depends on when PAGASA and the media there start forecasting it. Most people in the provinces have cell phones, they use them for FB and texting only.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
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648. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

It just means the admins aren't going to ban ya's cause it's taking up blog space


Russia's Tolbachik volcano, Kamchatka poses a hazard to aviation with ash plume reaching altitude of 33,000 ft.



how ever he wants to do it we had one about 6 months ago and i got banned when i opened up the war chest....since then he won't respond because it was brutal
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
Quoting AussieStorm:

But by then they will be chasing there butts trying to evac people from possible effected areas.


Well, I hope residents in the Philippines are prepared by monitoring Bopha before it's too late.
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Quoting Civicane49:


It has not reached Philippines' Area of Responsibility yet but is forecast to enter the area in the next few days. JMA currently has the latest information of the cyclone. Once it reaches the area, PAGASA will have latest information regarding the cyclone.


But by then they will be chasing there butts trying to evac people from possible effected areas. They'll get 24-36hr. Not enough time. I've been there.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting yoboi:



whatever makes neap feel safe i will agree to...

It just means the admins aren't going to ban ya's cause it's not taking up main blog space


Russia's Tolbachik volcano, Kamchatka poses a hazard to aviation with ash plume reaching altitude of 33,000 ft.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Closeup image of Bopha:

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Quoting Civicane49:
Bopha:


Eye see an eye with Bopha...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Bopha:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 3.5N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 3.5N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 4.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 4.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 5.6N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 6.3N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.8N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.3N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 11.3N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 3.6N 145.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14253
Quoting AussieStorm:

PAGASA hasn't said anything about it. it's no in there area of responsibility.
Link
Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).


It has not reached Philippines' Area of Responsibility yet but is forecast to enter the area in the next few days. JMA currently has the latest information of the cyclone. Once it reaches the area, PAGASA will have latest information regarding the cyclone.

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Quoting VaStormGuy:


I looked. You're right, nobody has said that before.

Plus signs indicate approval.
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638. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

Why don't you make a blog. do it there.



whatever makes neap feel safe i will agree to...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
Quoting yoboi:



i challenge you to a debate on here anytime if we can have a no ban rule in effect from DR M......

Why don't you make a blog. do it there.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting Civicane49:


Bopha appears to be developing a ragged eye and has good spiral bands around the cyclone on satellite and microwave imagery for the past several hours. It is definitely close to typhoon status. Hope the Philippines and Palau are prepared for Bopha.

PAGASA hasn't said anything about it. it's not in there area of responsibility.
Link
Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, there is no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting ncstorm:
hmmm..look in the last three blogs for two words and could not find them..

"YOU'RE RIGHT"

maybe admin needs to create a wunderbot when those words actually populate in a comment during the "Great Debate Of Climate Change 2012"


I looked. You're right, nobody has said that before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
634. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
Indeed. I've run through the full PNAS article three times, and all I can say is that Lewis Page, the author of the piece in the Register, appears to have gotten just one thing right--his name. And given how badly he mangled the PNAS article's conclusion, I might need to see his birth certificate before I believe even that.



i challenge you to a debate on here anytime if we can have a no ban rule in effect from DR M......
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
Quoting MrMixon:


No, nobody had located or linked to the original article. That's awesome - thanks! I just gave it a quick read and will look at it in more detail when I have time. But it was quite clear from my quick read of the full article that the Register news piece referenced earlier today was WAY off the mark.

The lesson here is to ALWAYS skip the news article and go straight to the source when/if you can (knocking down or circumventing more of these journal paywalls would help tremendously...)
There is a pdf linked at the end of the abstract page you posted for the Princeton study. They call it "Supporting information." Downloaded it. Seems to be lots of graphics.

Most people can't digest a scientific article. Still does not excuse journalistic bias. Guess I'm just beginning to realize traditional media and internet blogs are not true journalism. Maybe some of the better newspaper sites are, but, even then, you see Op-Ed presented as though it's a news article.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
hmmm..look in the last three blogs for two words and could not find them..

"YOU'RE RIGHT"

maybe admin needs to create a wunderbot when those words actually populate in a comment during the "Great Debate Of Climate Change 2012"


Given the general level of usage, you might find "your right". :)
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Bopha looks on the virge of being a Typhoon. Here is the latest microwave.



Bopha appears to be developing a ragged eye and has good spiral bands around the cyclone on satellite and microwave imagery for the past several hours. It is definitely close to typhoon status. Hope the Philippines and Palau are prepared for Bopha.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
630. yoboi
Quoting ncstorm:
hmmm..look in the last three blogs for two words and could not find them..

"YOU'RE RIGHT"

maybe admin needs to create a wunderbot when those words actually populate in a comment during the "Great Debate Of Climate Change 2012"


they have something that pops up quick when ya say it bammm banned
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
hmmm..look in the last three blogs for two words and could not find them..

"YOU'RE RIGHT"

maybe admin needs to create a wunderbot when those words actually populate in a comment during the "Great Debate Of Climate Change 2012"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrMixon:


No, nobody had located or linked to the original article. That's awesome - thanks! I just gave it a quick read and will look at it in more detail when I have time. But it was quite clear from my quick read of the full article that the Register news piece referenced earlier today was WAY off the mark.

The lesson here is to ALWAYS skip the news article and go straight to the source when/if you can (knocking down or circumventing more of these journal paywalls would help tremendously...)
Indeed. I've run through the full PNAS article three times, and all I can say is that Lewis Page, the author of the piece in the Register, appears to have gotten just one thing right--his name. And given how badly he mangled the PNAS article's conclusion, I might need to see his birth certificate before I believe even that.
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627. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:
that's the funny thing. these are the same guys who demanded Nea cough up his own personal carbon budget, despite the fact that that has nothing at all to do with whether climate change is real or not, and have hounded him for it for the last week or so.

yet when one of them says that the actual anomaly data set others bring up is dead wrong, and we ask him to show us some better or alternate data, we get crickets.

apparently in their world, some dude on the internet's personal energy usage really is a more important metric in judging the reality of climate change than 100 years of temperature measurements. god help us all.




i showed it and got banned and a gag order....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2335
626. beell
@625 MrMixon:
Based on my understanding of the parts of the paper that were in english, for true on all counts.
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Quoting beell:


A little late to the party but an even-handed response and summary of the salient points contained in the Princeton study, Mr. M.

It may have already been posted (too much noise/crap to read through!)....the full and the free document
www.princeton.edu/geosciences


No, nobody had located or linked to the original article. That's awesome - thanks! I just gave it a quick read and will look at it in more detail when I have time. But it was quite clear from my quick read of the full article that the Register news piece referenced earlier today was WAY off the mark.

The lesson here is to ALWAYS skip the news article and go straight to the source when/if you can (knocking down or circumventing more of these journal paywalls would help tremendously...)
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.