Nineteen Atlantic tropical storms 3 consecutive years: a very rare event

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 PM GMT on November 28, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season closes this Friday with another top-five tally for named storms--nineteen. This is the third consecutive year with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic, which is a remarkable level of activity for a three-year period. The closest comparable three-year period of activity occurred during 2003 - 2004 - 2005, when each season had fifteen-plus named storms. Since 1851, only two seasons--2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (20 named storms)--have been busier than 2010, 2011, and 2012.


Figure 1. Preliminary tracks of the nineteen named storms from 2012. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

How rare are 3 consecutive top-five hurricane seasons for named storms?
It is tremendously rare to get three consecutive top-five years in a database with a 162-year record. This would occur randomly just once every 34,000 years--assuming the database were unbiased, the climate were not changing, and a multi-year climate pattern favorable for active seasons were not present. However the database IS biased, the climate IS changing, and we have been in an active hurricane period that began in 1995. So, which of these factors may be responsible for recording three consecutive years with nineteen named storms? It is well-known that prior to the arrival of geostationary satellites in December 1966 and aircraft hurricane reconnaissance in 1945 that tropical storms in the Atlantic were under-counted. Landsea et al. (2004) theorized that we missed up to six named storms per year between 1851 - 1885, and up to four between 1886 - 1910. Landsea (2007) estimated the under-count to be 3.2 named storms per year between 1900 - 1965, and 1.0 per year between 1966 - 2002. Other studies have argued for lower under-counts. So, if we assume the highest under-counts estimated by Landsea et al. (2004) and Landsea (2007), here would be the top ten busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1851:

2005: 28
1887: 25
1933: 23
1995: 20
2012, 2011, 2010, 1969, 1936: 19

So, 2012, 2011, and 2010 would still rank as top-five busiest seasons since 1851, but the odds of having three consecutive seasons with nineteen named storms would drop from a 1-in-34,000 year event to "only" a 1-in-5800 year event. More recently, Landsea et al. (2010) showed that the increasing trend in North Atlantic tropical storm frequency over the past 140 years was largely due to the increasing trend in short‐lived storms (storms lasting 2 days or less, called “shorties”), after the 1940s (Figure 2, top). They did not detect a significant increasing trend in medium‐ to long‐lived storms lasting more than 2 days. They wrote that “while it is possible that the recorded increase in short‐duration TCs [tropical cyclones] represents a real climate signal, we consider it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of the observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques.” Villarini et al. (2011), in a paper titled, "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", agreed. They attempted to correlate increases in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures in recent decades to the increase in short-lived Atlantic tropical storms, and were unable to do so. They wrote: using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century‐scale record of short‐lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long‐term secular increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days. So, let's do that. If we look during the past three hurricane seasons at how many "shorties" were observed, we see that a large number that stayed at tropical storm strength for two days or less: six storms in 2010, six in 2011, and seven in 2012. This leaves the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 with twelve to thirteen tropical storms that lasted more than two days. This doesn't stand out that much when looking at trends since 1878 (Figure 2, bottom); there are now 25 years in the 135-year record with twelve or more long-lived tropical cyclones. However, there are no previous occurrences of three consecutive years with at least twelve long-lived tropical storms, so 2010, 2011, and 2012 still represent an unprecedented level of tropical storm activity in the historical record, and we would expect such an event to occur randomly about once every 157 years. That's a pretty rare event, and it is possible that climate change, combined with the fact we are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, contributed to this rare event.


Figure 2. Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1878 - 2012 that spent two days or less at tropical storm strength (top) and more than two days at tropical storm strength or hurricane strength (bottom.) Figure updated from Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493.

References
Landsea, C. W., C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Dunion, J. Fernandez‐Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer (2004), "The Atlantic hurricane database re‐analysis project: Documentation for 1851–1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database," in Hurricanes and Typhoons ‐ Past, Present, and Future, edited by R. J. Murnane and K. B. Liu, pp. 178–221, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.

Landsea, C. W., (2007), "Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900," Eos, 88(18), 197-202.

Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493

Jeff Masters

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825. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

You're up next, don't worry. LOL.

West looking very messy. Haven't seen the HPC cranking out amounts that prolific in a long time. I could only imagine the snows on the Cascades!! My two girls and I are going out there in January for our ski trip. They of course need more practice on the bunny hills. ;)



Aye, there seems to be some real snow amounts coming that way.

You seem to be really looking forward to your skiing vacation have a great time out there with your girls, Gal.
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7077
Morning everyone,

Welcome to the last day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I think I'm going to write up another seasonal review.
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823. MTWX
Just stopping in to make mention of this backwards weather!!!

Current temp's:

My hometown: Great Falls, MT 52
Current Location: Columbus, MS 35

Seems just a little backwards to me!

Both locations highs for the week are forecasted to be 20-30 degrees above average too!!

Great Falls: forecast highs from 50- 60, average: 37

Columbus: forecast highs 65-75, average: 59

That is all... Happy Blogging folks!
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821. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:
nymore 1:40 PM GMT on November 30, 2012

Oh, by the way, mymore. You and I are the same person and incarnations of cat5 and clamshell.

LOL


Surprised I am not as well, must not have annoyed him as much LOL

Anyways Tne North West seems to have a little interesting weather...

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7077
820. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hence when people here comment back against him, they are soon banned from 1hr to 24hrs. I called him a smart a$$ and I got banned for 1hr also the comment was removed. When he very much was being one. The comment also contained some very nice thunderstorm photo's




it all depends on who's shoes you polish....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 8 Comments: 3245
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hence when people here comment back against him, they are soon banned from 1hr to 24hrs. I called him a smart a$$ and I got banned for 1hr also the comment was removed. When he very much was being one. The comment also contained some very nice thunderstorm photo's


How to be a good AGW alarmist.

1. Present your theory.

2. When evidence is presented against your theory, say its been debunked. If the opponent demands to see the study, call bullsh1t.

3. Give the sceptics a bad name, like "denialist"

4. Generalize the sceptics as conservitive, creationist, radical republicans who dont care about the Earth.

5. If a person presents hard evidence against AGW, say they are "uncredible" because they dont have a PHD. Or if they do have a PHD, call them an idiot.

6. Push all opposing scientists aside.

7. State your opinion like its fact.

8. If all else fails, preach about how much CO2 the average person produces and ask if we should just "ignore it" or if it will just "go away" (even though it does).
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Media Matters??!!

Bunch of left-wing haters.

LMAO!

@622 Doug, try this one then from Scientific American. I am disenheartened that "anti" science is now a non-hyphenated word.

Link
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817. yoboi
Quoting FatPenguin:


When he's discussing the facts of AGW, he's got science on his side.

I can't speak for him, but after 10+ years of trying to prove the sky is blue to people that view the discussion not through a scientific perspective, but one of either politics, religion or just plain fear, it can be frustrating.



lol
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 8 Comments: 3245
G-night Mate, see ya laters!
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Quoting FatPenguin:


When he's discussing the facts of AGW, he's got science on his side.

I can't speak for him, but after 10 years of trying to prove the sky is blue to people that view the discussion not through a scientific perspective, but one of either politics, religion or just plain fear, it can be frustrating.

But there is no need to insult people. No matter which side they are on.

As my mother always told me. Son, if you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all.

I'll be back in the morning unless I am banned again for my comment in 811.

Take care all.
Goodnight
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


Quoting AussieStorm:

He'll never say sorry or admit he's wrong. He'll just throw insults.
+++++++++++++
The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season is OVER!!!!The problem seems to be that he has quite a few on his side.


When he's discussing the facts of AGW, he's got science on his side.

I can't speak for him, but after 10+ years of trying to prove the sky is blue to people that view the discussion not through a scientific perspective, but one of either politics, religion or just plain fear, it can be frustrating.
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Quoting beell:


One of ya'll (anyone?) check my math here as I am not the sharpest lightbulb in the drawer...

200 Gt/yr with an acceleration of ice loss of 8 Gt/yr (200 Gt the first year, 208-yr 2, 216-yr 3, etc) rounds out to about 40,240 Gt (or cubic kilometers if you prefer) through the year 2100.
360 cubic kilometers of ice to raise sea level 1 millimeter.

40,240/360 = 111mm of sea level rise or about 4" by 2100.

If I presume correct the math used to find a 111mm rise by 2100,

111mm=11.1cm
4"=10.2cm

Your math may be off a little, lol, but either scenario is far below Lewis Page's interpretation, as stated by Neo at comment 777:
"In his foolish denialist zeal, Page scanned that and came to the (wrong) conclusion that maximum global sea level rise by 2100 will be 30cm (???), and followed that bit of chicanery with the laughably baseless comment that 'it will probably be less than that'. "

Frankly, my dears, maybe the Page character is correct.
~Bueller
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Quoting AussieStorm:

He'll never say sorry or admit he's wrong. He'll just throw insults.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season is OVER!!!!



The problem seems to be that he has quite a few on his side.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Quoting nymore:
If you have not learned by now Neapolitan is always right. Even when proven wrong he will never admit it. Want to have some fun with him just ask him what his solution would be to help stop AGWT, he will never answer because he is a FRAUD. AGWT is just the vehicle he uses to grind the axe against high profit fossil fuel companies. It is just a means to an end for his agenda.

He'll never say sorry or admit he's wrong. He'll just throw insults.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season is OVER!!!!

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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tweeted by PAGASA...

Tropical Cyclone Update: 29/NOV/12, There is NO tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility. However, all are advised to monitor updates especially a weather disturbance is seen approximately 1,040 km east border of PAR or 2,000 km east southeast of Mindanao.


I saw that, but they do mention Tropical Storm "BOPHA" on there page.



This is why no watches or warning. Not in PAGASA's Philippine Area of Responsibility or PAR.


Also noticed they are a day behind. it's 21:37 Friday 30/NOV/2012
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Renmark swelters through record heat



Renmark had its hottest November day on record yesterday, as temperatures soared into the mid 40s across the region.

Renmark Airport recorded a maximum temperature of 45.3°C(113.5°F), just after 2:00pm ACDT.

Darren Ray from the Bureau of Meteorology says it was nearly the hottest place in South Australia.

"Moomba in the north of the state got up to 45.5°C(113.9°F), so Renmark was almost there but slightly pipped at the post," he said.

"That record [for Renmark] does go back to 1957, so it's a reasonably long record as well, so that's pretty significant.

"It beats the previous November record which was 44.6°C(112.3°F), which came in really warm November conditions in 2009."


- ABC

© ABC 2012
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803. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tweeted by PAGASA...

Tropical Cyclone Update: 29/NOV/12, There is NO tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility. However, all are advised to monitor updates especially a weather disturbance is seen approximately 1,040 km east border of PAR or 2,000 km east southeast of Mindanao.
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Hot and windy as crews battle fires

About 100 residents of Glen Huon in southern Tasmania were evacuated from their homes this afternoon as a bushfire approached Bermuda road.
It is one of two dozen bushfires still burning throughout the state, sparked by hot, windy conditions.
A spokesman for the Fire Service, Michael Goldsmith, says some of the Glen Huon residents are tonight returning to their homes
"The temperature's decreasing but the winds are still quite strong in each of those municipalities, and that's proving a little bit of concern for us, so we've still got plenty of work to do overnight to maintain a strong hold on the fires at hand," said Mr Goldsmith.
"Watch and act" alerts remain in place for a fire at Glenlusk near Collinsvale, and another near the Arthur Highway at Forcett, in the south east.
Residents in both areas are advised to prepare their bushfire plans.
Meanwhile, a bushfire on the Huon Highway at Geeveston has burnt up to five hectares and there is a warning for communities near Scotts Road.
But the biggest fire in the Central Highlands on Poatina Road, between Arthurs Lake and Great Lake, appears to have eased and authorities have cancelled their "watch and act" alert.
Incident controller Chris Arthur says it has been hard to contain.
"The fire has become really active," he said.
"The expected extreme weather which prompted the total fire ban has arrived, at the moment we've got 36 people working on the fire."
A "watch and act" alert is still current for shack owners at Cramp's Bay, who are being urged to activate their bushfire plans, and the TFS says the fire may affect Jonah Bay and surrounding areas tomorrow.
The blaze had threatened power lines but Transend now says the danger is over and it is unlikely there will be any power cuts.
A water-bombing helicopter has been used used to fight the Central Highlands blaze, which has so far burnt 1,000 hectares.
Poatina Highway has been closed.
A total fire ban is in place for southern Tasmania until midnight tonight.
Residents can keep up to date with the latest emergency warnings at the .

Mill fire
Fire damage estimated at $600,000 is expected to delay production at a northern Tasmanian sawmill.
The blaze at the Artec sawmill in Western Junction started after a fault in a conveyor belt.
The Fire Service says nearby equipment has been damaged, halting production.


- ABC

ABC 2012
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Storm heads south after lashing Ballarat



A storm has brought down trees, damaged houses and caused some flash flooding at Ballarat in western Victoria.

The State Emergency Service says it has received about 150 calls for help, mostly in the suburbs of Sebastopol and Mount Clear.

The storm is moving south towards Geelong, bringing large hailstones, strong winds and heavy rain.

SES spokesman Lachlan Quick says it is receiving more than three calls a minute.

"Building damage and trees down over roads appear to be the main concerns at this stage," he said.

"It looks as though there's some pretty significant hail associated with this storm and we've got some concerns with road safety given the number of trees down over roads but also there's going to be quite a number of people with damaged roofs."

Earlier, the storm brought down trees near Avoca, causing traffic delays on the Pyrenees Highway at Elmhurst.


- ABC

© ABC 2012
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800. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
21:00 PM JST November 30 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Bopha (980 hPa) located at 4.0N 144.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 5.4N 140.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
48 HRS: 6.7N 137.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
72 HRS: 7.9N 133.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Caroline Island
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Louis, please don't spam the blog with all these tweets. There is no need to post every single one, if I (removed the "we"s i didn't want to speak for others) wanted to read them all, I would go look myself. The information, and event are very interesting, and I know you are very involved. You might be better served by picking important information, cleaning it up, and presenting it with some commentary from "you" as to what it means. Bunch them together after cleaning them up, but one after another after another with no commentary, soon becomes spam.

Now, I'm not anyone special, nor have any powers, I am simply making some suggestions that may improve the quality of your posts, and your standing here as a poster. Please take no offense as none is intended.

I agree. I normally only post tweets that have images attached.
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Kristen Sze TV News‏@abc7kristensze

rain & wind bay area-wide rt now. thousands no power. check out the pg&e power outage map! http://www.pge.com/myhome/customerservice/outages/ … #bayarearain

4 minMike Nicco‏@MikeNiccoABC7

#Breaking - Penngrove Stream is flooding in Petaluma. Flash Flood Warning until 6:15am. #bayarearain #ABC7Mornings

5 minKristen Sze TV News‏@abc7kristensze

WB580/680 sig alert: big rig crash. NB 101 cotati mudslide, NB 101 b4 whipple injury ax, flooding EB 80 at tennessee, tree NB 101 millbrae!
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2041
Quoting whitewabit:


will that give a jump start to your fire season ???

Mornin' all.

Fire season started in September. Currently there is 36 fires burning in NSW. 5 major fires in Queensland. 16 fires burning in Victoria, 4 majors. 15 fires burning in Tasmania, 4 majors. 7 fires burning in South Australia, 1 major. 1 fire burning in Western Australia.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Luis, please don't spam the blog with all these tweets. There is no need to post every single one, if I (removed the "we"s i didn't want to speak for others) wanted to read them all, I would go look myself. The information, and event are very interesting, and I know you are very involved. You might be better served by picking important information, cleaning it up, and presenting it with some commentary from "you" as to what it means. Bunch them together after cleaning them up, but one after another after another with no commentary, soon becomes spam.

Now, I'm not anyone special, nor have any powers, I am simply making some suggestions that may improve the quality of your posts, and your standing here as a poster. Please take no offense as none is intended.
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795. beell
Quoting Neapolitan:
You appear to have skipped the salient parts of both my comment and Page's opinion piece. See, Page engaged in the sort of misunderstanding, deceit, and overreach that many non-scientists do, especially those with an anti-science agenda. To wit:

The PNAS article was about corroborating satellite data of Greenland ice growth and loss with real-world observations. In his foolish denialist zeal, Page scanned that and came to the (wrong) conclusion that maximum global sea level rise by 2100 will be 30cm (???), and followed that bit of chicanery with the laughably baseless comment that "it will probably be less than that". He then performed some sloppy legerdermain on that pile of dung, and ignorantly announced that that will mean "hardly any difference" between current and future sea levels. Then he finally topped of his sundae of stupidity by claiming "there's no reason to worry".

Yeah, I saw what he did there. If you didn't, I suggest re-reading his piece. That is, if you have the stomach for it... ;-)

Now, off to work. Big day today...


One of ya'll (anyone?) check my math here as I am not the sharpest lightbulb in the drawer...

200 Gt/yr with an acceleration of ice loss of 8 Gt/yr (200 Gt the first year, 208-yr 2, 216-yr 3, etc) rounds out to about 40,240 Gt (or cubic kilometers if you prefer) through the year 2100.
360 cubic kilometers of ice to raise sea level 1 millimeter.

40,240/360 = 111mm of sea level rise or about 4" by 2100.

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NWSBayArea‏@NWSBayArea

Flash flood warning for the Petaluma area in Sonoma County http://1.usa.gov/TvIaj9 #bayarearain #sfweather #flooding
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2041
Melissa Crowley‏@MelissaCrowley

Hway 16/20 closed mud and rock slides#news10
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2041
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/img/gfs_fcst _ar_current.gif
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2041
1 minMelissa Crowley‏@MelissaCrowley

Intersection flooded Antelope Rd@Antelope N Road, possible tree down Rio Linda, 7600 block El Verano#news10
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2041

Afternoon! Lunchtime here in Scotland. From your link, It looks pretty windy in California. Hope they don't get all that snow.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3210
Mornin' Yonz!

A very cool website, that I cannot figure out how to copy the images from, is worth a peruse. Someone posted this up a month or so ago, and I keep it handy on my tool bar to frequently check.

Wind Map

There is an archive page that is also interesting.. Man, March sure is windy... here is the page from the Sandy lamdfall... seems like nearly everything east of the Missip' is being influenced.. a really big girl.

Wind Map Historical
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Time to run out the door, at least I should be able to take the kids out to recess today. Everyone have a great Friday! And Aussie, have a great Saturday!

Weekend's here!
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AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Rain totals in CA over the past 48 hrs: Mount Shasta, 5.54"; Crescent City, 4.97"; Santa Rosa, 4.06"; Sacramento, 1.23"

16 minRoberta Gonzales‏@RobertaCBS5

19 years in Bay Area and I have never heard such a powerful storm! Outages: 2,700 without power Peninsula, 6,000 South Bay, 2,000 North Bay.


47 minMelissa Crowley‏@MelissaCrowley

Flooding reported Arden@Avondale chains on 80, Sf flooding Treasure Island News10 crews out on streets live at 5am#news10

Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2041
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Two possibilities with that graph.

1) The world hasn't warmed since 1998.

2) It's a hoax.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3210
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




If I believed that, I'd have quit my job and would be most of the way towards maxing out every credit card I could get my grubby little paws onto.


Mornin' Doug! and you too Ms. aislinnpaps!

Someone yesterday said they were going to buy all new furniture with first payments in 2013... laughed out loud I did.

49 eh.. brrrrr


778. notifbutwhen 6:18 AM EST on November 30, 2012

Didn't want you to feel neglected... I am uncertain but would venture a "both" for #1-2, a don't know on #3
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Bopha is officially a typhoon and looks rather impressive right now with a lot of cold cloud tops over the center. A large, ragged eye has remained evident in microwave imagery and my guess is that it will try to clear it out sometime today or early tomorrow. Not looking good for the Philippines:





Is also starting to gain latitude that will help with the coriolis. Officially,is Severe Tropical Storm as the official agency JMA has not upgraded to typhoon but that is a given later today.

WTPQ50 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 03.9N 145.3E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 05.2N 142.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 020600UTC 06.5N 138.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 030600UTC 07.8N 134.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 040600UTC 09.4N 130.1E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
120HF 050600UTC 11.4N 126.3E 300NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT =

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Well folks, we have 22 days left.

How are you going to spend each and every day like it is your last?




If I believed that, I'd have quit my job and would be most of the way towards maxing out every credit card I could get my grubby little paws onto.
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Good Mornin' all.
Good eve Aussie>
Bopha looking impressive considering its latitude.


49 degrees here on Bayou Grande this morning.
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Good morning/evening everyone.
Aussie, you better stay in the a/c!
We're forecast for several days of close to 80 degrees here.
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Can anyone tell me what the classification of Sandy was at landfall? I'm not sure if this has been discussed here and apologize if it has, but I have been without much internet access here in Long Beach, NY

My questions:

Was Sandy technically a hurricane or hybrid system?

Was Sandy fed baroclinically and was the gulf stream involved?

Has anyone heard how this will affect the victims with Property Insurance, as far as "Hurricane Deductibles" go?

TIA!
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Quoting lahcuts:


If one calculates the mass of the ice sheet from its volume, and using the 200 Gt/yr figure, on a linear basis, the time to melt the entire ice sheet is in the ballpark of 13000 years, as Page claims. Again, using the 6.5 m sea level rise if the entire ice sheet melts in 13K years, 118 years of melting gives approximately 5cm of sea level rise. You can discuss the reality of the linearity of melting over 13K years but the numbers are correct.
You appear to have skipped the salient parts of both my comment and Page's opinion piece. See, Page engaged in the sort of misunderstanding, deceit, and overreach that many non-scientists do, especially those with an anti-science agenda. To wit:

The PNAS article was about corroborating satellite data of Greenland ice growth and loss with real-world observations. In his foolish denialist zeal, Page scanned that and came to the (wrong) conclusion that maximum global sea level rise by 2100 will be 30cm (???), and followed that bit of chicanery with the laughably baseless comment that "it will probably be less than that". He then performed some sloppy legerdermain on that pile of dung, and ignorantly announced that that will mean "hardly any difference" between current and future sea levels. Then he finally topped of his sundae of stupidity by claiming "there's no reason to worry".

Yeah, I saw what he did there. If you didn't, I suggest re-reading his piece. That is, if you have the stomach for it... ;-)

Now, off to work. Big day today...
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Good morning. Bopha is officially a typhoon and looks rather impressive right now with a lot of cold cloud tops over the center. A large, ragged eye has remained evident in microwave imagery and my guess is that it will try to clear it out sometime today or early tomorrow. Not looking good for the Philippines:



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Well folks, we have 22 days left.

How are you going to spend each and every day like it is your last?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley