Nineteen Atlantic tropical storms 3 consecutive years: a very rare event

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 PM GMT on November 28, 2012

Share this Blog
46
+

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season closes this Friday with another top-five tally for named storms--nineteen. This is the third consecutive year with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic, which is a remarkable level of activity for a three-year period. The closest comparable three-year period of activity occurred during 2003 - 2004 - 2005, when each season had fifteen-plus named storms. Since 1851, only two seasons--2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (20 named storms)--have been busier than 2010, 2011, and 2012.


Figure 1. Preliminary tracks of the nineteen named storms from 2012. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

How rare are 3 consecutive top-five hurricane seasons for named storms?
It is tremendously rare to get three consecutive top-five years in a database with a 162-year record. This would occur randomly just once every 34,000 years--assuming the database were unbiased, the climate were not changing, and a multi-year climate pattern favorable for active seasons were not present. However the database IS biased, the climate IS changing, and we have been in an active hurricane period that began in 1995. So, which of these factors may be responsible for recording three consecutive years with nineteen named storms? It is well-known that prior to the arrival of geostationary satellites in December 1966 and aircraft hurricane reconnaissance in 1945 that tropical storms in the Atlantic were under-counted. Landsea et al. (2004) theorized that we missed up to six named storms per year between 1851 - 1885, and up to four between 1886 - 1910. Landsea (2007) estimated the under-count to be 3.2 named storms per year between 1900 - 1965, and 1.0 per year between 1966 - 2002. Other studies have argued for lower under-counts. So, if we assume the highest under-counts estimated by Landsea et al. (2004) and Landsea (2007), here would be the top ten busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1851:

2005: 28
1887: 25
1933: 23
1995: 20
2012, 2011, 2010, 1969, 1936: 19

So, 2012, 2011, and 2010 would still rank as top-five busiest seasons since 1851, but the odds of having three consecutive seasons with nineteen named storms would drop from a 1-in-34,000 year event to "only" a 1-in-5800 year event. More recently, Landsea et al. (2010) showed that the increasing trend in North Atlantic tropical storm frequency over the past 140 years was largely due to the increasing trend in short‐lived storms (storms lasting 2 days or less, called “shorties”), after the 1940s (Figure 2, top). They did not detect a significant increasing trend in medium‐ to long‐lived storms lasting more than 2 days. They wrote that “while it is possible that the recorded increase in short‐duration TCs [tropical cyclones] represents a real climate signal, we consider it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of the observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques.” Villarini et al. (2011), in a paper titled, "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", agreed. They attempted to correlate increases in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures in recent decades to the increase in short-lived Atlantic tropical storms, and were unable to do so. They wrote: using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century‐scale record of short‐lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long‐term secular increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days. So, let's do that. If we look during the past three hurricane seasons at how many "shorties" were observed, we see that a large number that stayed at tropical storm strength for two days or less: six storms in 2010, six in 2011, and seven in 2012. This leaves the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 with twelve to thirteen tropical storms that lasted more than two days. This doesn't stand out that much when looking at trends since 1878 (Figure 2, bottom); there are now 25 years in the 135-year record with twelve or more long-lived tropical cyclones. However, there are no previous occurrences of three consecutive years with at least twelve long-lived tropical storms, so 2010, 2011, and 2012 still represent an unprecedented level of tropical storm activity in the historical record, and we would expect such an event to occur randomly about once every 157 years. That's a pretty rare event, and it is possible that climate change, combined with the fact we are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, contributed to this rare event.


Figure 2. Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1878 - 2012 that spent two days or less at tropical storm strength (top) and more than two days at tropical storm strength or hurricane strength (bottom.) Figure updated from Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493.

References
Landsea, C. W., C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Dunion, J. Fernandez‐Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer (2004), "The Atlantic hurricane database re‐analysis project: Documentation for 1851–1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database," in Hurricanes and Typhoons ‐ Past, Present, and Future, edited by R. J. Murnane and K. B. Liu, pp. 178–221, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.

Landsea, C. W., (2007), "Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900," Eos, 88(18), 197-202.

Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 125 - 75

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


If you can't handle being debated with, just how well informed are you?


trolling is not debate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is none-more-overcast here in north central Florida but neither the Satellite layer nor Google Earth show a wisp of clouds over here. Thick dark low stratus clouds with no rain. I expect the radar is blank but shouldn't the satellite layer show something?
???
Someone remind me where the water vapor animations are please.!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


no problem bro
Shhhhh, I'm just a silly girl.) Thanks for the update, still looks awfully bad for Northern CA. See a lot of people commenting on swimming, hope CA does not have to do that this week!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah Wash, I hear ya.
Hurricane Isaac stripped off most of the N-facing leaves here, but with plenty time to do so, they releafed after so some of the nicer color I'm seeing is of those young-growth leaves...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DocNDswamp:
re: 106 Wash -

Darn, this Evelyn Wood speed reading stuff isn't working out too well for me, at 1st thought you said you ran out the house naked this morning...
:)

Yep, even here in SE LA, I'm noticing our Fall foliage transition is a bit earlier (usually peaks around mid-late December here), getting some nice colors, although it's always more subdued than well-known, popular locations of viewing.
Lol.I would have been arrested like those protesters were in P.A yesterday.Some of the trees are refusing to let go of their leaves.It's like their babies.Even though they've reached their peak their still sitting there.Sandy did a number on most trees here back in late October.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Thanks, just an observer here:)


no problem bro
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Heck. This is better though. Saves me the work.


pshhh you don't have the tweetdeck running in the corner 24/7? amateur... :p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
re: 106 Wash -

Quoting washingtonian115:
The trees are almost fully naked now.I ran out the house this morning without a coat on(a thick sweater though)..


Darn, this Evelyn Wood speed reading stuff isn't working out too well for me, at 1st thought you said you ran out the house naked this morning...
:)

Yep, even here in SE LA, I'm noticing our Fall foliage transition is a bit earlier (usually peaks around mid-late December here), getting some nice colors, although it's always more subdued than well-known, popular locations of viewing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Leaving because of what other people say or believe just makes their voice stronger by comparison. Don't let the actions of others dictate yours. If you are educated and informed on a particular meteorological/environmental topic, please stay and continue to share that informed, well-written opinion.


If you can't handle being debated with, just how well informed are you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
here we go...

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
_____________________________

Major CAL/OR STORM THREAT

A series of storms will whip areas of northern California and southern Oregon.

wide view here


this time I also have the close-up of the area as well..


click on both images for bigger view...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Weak coastal low off of New Eng at 1001 mb in 24-hrs, then 949 mb in 48-hrs, 52 mb/ 24 hrs. High-end "bomb" deepening. pic.twitter.com/rxsPusr3


If I wanted to see his tweets I'd follow him on twitter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My local news paper(The Washington post) has done an interesting write up on this years hurricane season.They beleive Isaac and to no Surprise Sandy will be the only storms retired this year.I'm still skeptical on Isaac though..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting imipak:
You know, I'm done with reading the comments on this blog. Whilst there's a lot of interesting weather-related material, the constant braying of the herds of anti-science morons just makes me angry, I'm sorry to say. I've got nearly 20 people on Ignore after only being here a month, and still the stupid comes. Folks, if you disagree with AGW, post the doi for your paper in Nature, Science, or JGR. If you haven't published the stunning breakthrough you thought up in your bath last night, please, please, PLEASE, just STFU and GTFO.


Leaving because of what other people say or believe just makes their voice stronger by comparison. Don't let the actions of others dictate yours. If you are educated and informed on a particular meteorological/environmental topic, please stay and continue to share that informed, well-written opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Weak coastal low off of New Eng at 1001 mb in 24-hrs, then 949 mb in 48-hrs, 52 mb/ 24 hrs. High-end "bomb" deepening. pic.twitter.com/rxsPusr3
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
RyanMaueRyan Maue 1 m


UK looks unsettled during next 10-days w/ trans-Atlantic troughs consecutively digging over Europe. Brrr. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273885046375587 840/photo/1
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting StormPro:


Work at it hard and you can go plus 3 minutes without breathing under water


While not moving I've gotten to 1:40s a lot of which was just clamping my mouth shut while it tried to open

But swimming fast under a tarp I cant go longer than 30-40seconds
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was once visiting a friends apartment complex, over 25 years ago, and there was a commotion by the pool...A woman passed us yelling out "Jesus, Jesus" and when we got to the pool, someone was doing CPR on a child (about 10). Here eyes were dilated and "black" and folks were crying. Paramedics arrived about 5 minutes later and were able to revive the child..........That woman who passed us was her Mother.......I will never forget that day.

Anyone who lives near the Coast, or frequents beaches and waterways (or owns pools) needs to make sure that their children learn to swim almost as soon as they learn to walk.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The trees are almost fully naked now.I ran out the house this morning without a coat on(a thick sweater though).People at the metro looked at me as though I had gone nutty.Maybe because I'm use to cold weather.I use to live in Germany for a while when growing up.You know how winters can get up in the mountains there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It looks like NE shear is causing convection to go SW away from center.

TXPQ27 KNES 282005
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 26W (BOPHA)
B. 28/1430Z
C. 5.2N
D. 151.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SCATT

H. REMARKS...REANALYSIS BASED ON 1136Z ASCAT...1401Z OSCAT...AND 1533Z
AMSU. SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE CENTER TO BE FARTHER
NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. FURTHERMORE MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED
ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION WAS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT LESS THAN
1.25 DEGREES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF
2.0 USING SHEAR PATTERN. MET AGREES WHILE PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

28/1136Z 5.1N 152.3E SCATT
28/1401Z 5.2N 151.5E SCATT

...TURK
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14014

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I have to take that away...it was posted on the NWS site then taken away...

Im still updating my graphic...stay around
Thanks, just an observer here:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JustPlantIt:

Winds up to 75... Is this a hurricane? And I don't see much about this on the Weather Channel. 


I have to take that away...it was posted on the NWS site then taken away...

Im still updating my graphic...stay around
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting imipak:
You know, I'm done with reading the comments on this blog. Whilst there's a lot of interesting weather-related material, the constant braying of the herds of anti-science morons just makes me angry, I'm sorry to say. I've got nearly 20 people on Ignore after only being here a month, and still the stupid comes. Folks, if you disagree with AGW, post the doi for your paper in Nature, Science, or JGR. If you haven't published the stunning breakthrough you thought up in your bath last night, please, please, PLEASE, just STFU and GTFO. Ignorance isn't a crime -- there's plenty of stuff *I'M* ignorant about -- but wilfully refusing to accept that you're ignorant about something when others take the time to explain things carefully to you, over and over again,.. that really IS criminal. (I'm tempted to add that come the revolution, anti-science loonies will be the first ones up against the wall, but I'm afraid that's just wishful thinking.)

Thanks to the intelligent / knowledgeable / interesting people for making it good enough to make me persist this long. I'm off to read http://earth.geology.yale.edu/~avf5/teaching/Files _pdf/globalwarming_hadleycenter.pdf properly.

PS Morons: you may also wish to reflect upon the fact that mindless stupidity like yours reflects very badly on your country. Stop playing up to your stereotype!

PPS Admin / mod, apologies if you have to take time out to delete this.



Don't let the door hit ya.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
He you go plutorising
that is how it looks right now (close-up) in powerpoint
I'm done with photoshop



if you want...click for bigger pic
Winds up to 75... Is this a hurricane? And I don't see much about this on the Weather Channel. 
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
I even remember laying on the bottom of the pool looking up, I was still conscious, and I saw a splash which was my uncle diving in to get me.


Wow hydrus, you were one of the lucky ones...

One thing I noted on a day I accidentally fell in - lol, I mis-stepped from dock to boat, hitting the water backwards - the first instinctive, reflex reaction as suddenly submerged is to gulp for air and get water! Probably worse when the temp shock of cold water is encountered. Fortunately, I survived to laugh at my folly that morning, although embarrassed as this was at a busy boat launch...

Now, for the not-so-funny...
Came across an extremely unfortunate situation years ago - local pond in a neighborhood, I'd dropped by to fish a few hrs from the bank. Directly across, a family gathering underway, lot of kids playing in backyard. Not more than 10 minutes after I got there, one of the parents began frantically searching, calling out "Where's Chad?" ... Uh oh... Soon, several were in the water, feeling about and sadly the uncle came up with the 5 year old boy's lifeless body, couldn't revive him... Just utter shock all around, such a hopeless, depressing scene I'll never forget. Needless to say in the middle of all that it was too upsetting to think of fishing and soon went home, tears filling my eyes... Stays in my mind, haunted a bit by it thinking how unfortunate that I hadn't arrived sooner, as certainly would have seen the boy fall in the water... and might have been saved... if only...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


No need to do that, just come to one of my swim practice....
One coach made us put a tarp over the pool and go 45yds under water...Had no choice but to come up...
And you are out of air before halfway....really feels like almost dying.
Not sure where the feeling of peace and calm comes but probably sometime after that.
If you breathe the water though your body should begin to shut down...so after all that trying to breath you just stop... and soon die.


Work at it hard and you can go plus 3 minutes without breathing under water
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Having been trapped under a clear plastic pool cover, with lungs heaving, and adrenaline buring in my veins, no way to reach air, and panic sets in...no, anything close to that is definitely NOT a painless event.
There is a darn good reason it is not a death penalty option, used by the ASPCA, etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Alina Tsui‏@AlinawTsui

RT @TheMatthewKeys: More than 1,000 without power in Pacifica, California as major storm pounds Golden State - http://bit.ly/TtzTPO
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


As a swimmer who does breath control, you can go a lot longer than you think while holding your breath, and they say the feeling of peace and calm is just beyond the deathly screaming your lungs give you while your coach is making you kick the length of the pool underwater, so its supposedly not that bad.
But its not pleasant.
I suppose fire might be worse.
I always thought being stabbed would be dreadful.
shot once, stabbed/cut twice...both pretty high on the suckage meter for sure! 56 and sunny now in NOLA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon. Late in checking Dr. Master's Blog entry for the day. Nice job in crunching these numbers. I would say, if we were to assume that the recent activity in the Atlantic basin "might" be correlated to climate change, that we will need at least 10-15 more seasons of data to see if the past 3 years are truly a rare one in every 157 year event, or something else is a brewing if the higher tallies continue in the long-term.............A good indicator of this will be to see what happens during upcoming El Nino events as opposed to Neutral or La Nina years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hydrus's cold front:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting imipak:
Oh god, I can't help myself. On drowning:

One myth about drowning that survives to this day is that it is a painless, almost pleasant way to die. Survivors testify otherwise:

"...When the cramp hit me, I sank to the bottom of the lake 12 feet down, in a doubled-up position. Compounding the wracking pain in my trunk was a mounting choking sensation. (Try holding your mouth and nose after taking a deep breath. Hold your breath until it becomes unbearable; then try holding it a few seconds past the unbearable point. It's a horrible sensation and would give you a dim idea of just one aspect of how it feels to drown.) The pressure of the water caused a stabbing pain in my eyes and ears... try to keep your head when water begins to seep into your already tortured lungs and your body is a mass of pain and you know you are dying... I remember that I screamed down there against a solid wall of water�I remember that I threshed and bobbed, but only succeeded in burrowing my head into the slime of the lake floor...."


http://www.lib.niu.edu/1992/ip920721.html


No need to do that, just come to one of my swim practice....
One coach made us put a tarp over the pool and go 45yds under water...Had no choice but to come up...
And you are out of air before halfway....really feels like almost dying.
Not sure where the feeling of peace and calm comes but probably sometime after that.
If you breathe the water though your body should begin to shut down...so after all that trying to breath you just stop... and soon die.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, when you take out the 2 year storms, add in missed storms (are there 2 year double jeopardy events?) three consecutive years with over 12 storms, has the odds of 1 in 157(Based on Dr M.
s blog above). Given a 134 year event record, doesn't that mean it is highly likely to occur once during that record?

Isn't there about an 85% chance a one in 157 year event occurs once in a 134 year record? Right?
That seems rare but statistically likely even without climate change contributions or an especially active cycle.
(edit)
(Does Dr. M mean that out of 157, 135 year records, only one 3 consecutive year event would reandomly occur? If so THAT would be a clearer indication of addional influences)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thanks for that info... I can't swim though.


If you're drowning and not going to be rescued, you probably shouldn't hold your breath as long as you could to make it more painful, just goa head and breathe the water and get to the nice calm state and just slowly fade out.
Otherwise keep trying like hell to hold out as long as possible and be rescued. And not breathe the water till you absolutely have to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh god, I can't help myself. On drowning:

One myth about drowning that survives to this day is that it is a painless, almost pleasant way to die. Survivors testify otherwise:

"...When the cramp hit me, I sank to the bottom of the lake 12 feet down, in a doubled-up position. Compounding the wracking pain in my trunk was a mounting choking sensation. (Try holding your mouth and nose after taking a deep breath. Hold your breath until it becomes unbearable; then try holding it a few seconds past the unbearable point. It's a horrible sensation and would give you a dim idea of just one aspect of how it feels to drown.) The pressure of the water caused a stabbing pain in my eyes and ears... try to keep your head when water begins to seep into your already tortured lungs and your body is a mass of pain and you know you are dying... I remember that I screamed down there against a solid wall of water�I remember that I threshed and bobbed, but only succeeded in burrowing my head into the slime of the lake floor...."


http://www.lib.niu.edu/1992/ip920721.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sounds peaceful in a weird kinda way.The only pain I would have felt is the chlorine in my eyes.


That doesnt hurt.....
I suppose you have to breathe/gulp the water first to make your drowning go faster

Quoting hydrus:
Dixie Alley has the highest frequency of long-track F3 to F5 tornadoes, making it the most active region in the United States," Frates concluded. Dixie Alley had a frequency value of 2.92, followed by Tornado Alley (2.59), Hoosier Alley (2.37) and Carolina Alley (2.00).
The will be other severe weather events to follow this one I believe. " Dixie Alley " as it is called by the Mets usually has a second severe weather season Nov thru Dec.


GA is like the little brother to Dixie Alley...and all we get are leftover storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting plutorising:

this is my choice for the solution to opposing worldviews. but trolls deliberately derail this process in favor of the pessimistic form.

"The Consensus-Based Form involves a reasoned societal debate, focused on the full scope of technical and social dimensions of the problem and the feasibility and desirability of multiple solutions."



good luck...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting imipak:
You know, I'm done with reading the comments on this blog. Whilst there's a lot of interesting weather-related material, the constant braying of the herds of anti-science morons just makes me angry, I'm sorry to say. I've got nearly 20 people on Ignore after only being here a month, and still the stupid comes. Folks, if you disagree with AGW, post the doi for your paper in Nature, Science, or JGR. If you haven't published the stunning breakthrough you thought up in your bath last night, please, please, PLEASE, just STFU and GTFO. Ignorance isn't a crime -- there's plenty of stuff *I'M* ignorant about -- but wilfully refusing to accept that you're ignorant about something when others take the time to explain things carefully to you, over and over again,.. that really IS criminal. (I'm tempted to add that come the revolution, anti-science loonies will be the first ones up against the wall, but I'm afraid that's just wishful thinking.)

Thanks to the intelligent / knowledgeable / interesting people for making it good enough to make me persist this long. I'm off to read http://earth.geology.yale.edu/~avf5/teaching/Files _pdf/globalwarming_hadleycenter.pdf properly.

PS Morons: you may also wish to reflect upon the fact that mindless stupidity like yours reflects very badly on your country. Stop playing up to your stereotype!

PPS Admin / mod, apologies if you have to take time out to delete this.


I'm certainly glad you're having a wonderful day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


As a swimmer who does breath control, you can go a lot longer than you think while holding your breath, and they say the feeling of peace and calm is just beyond the deathly screaming your lungs give you while your coach is making you kick the length of the pool underwater, so its supposedly not that bad.
But its not pleasant.
I suppose fire might be worse.
I always thought being stabbed would be dreadful.


thanks for that info... I can't swim though.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Quoting 47n91w:


Sure! And thanks! I'll have an abundance of pics like that for the next five months :)


I'll be here to be pleased looking
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
You know, I'm done with reading the comments on this blog. Whilst there's a lot of interesting weather-related material, the constant braying of the herds of anti-science morons just makes me angry, I'm sorry to say. I've got nearly 20 people on Ignore after only being here a month, and still the stupid comes. Folks, if you disagree with AGW, post the doi for your paper in Nature, Science, or JGR. If you haven't published the stunning breakthrough you thought up in your bath last night, please, please, PLEASE, just STFU and GTFO. Ignorance isn't a crime -- there's plenty of stuff *I'M* ignorant about -- but wilfully refusing to accept that you're ignorant about something when others take the time to explain things carefully to you, over and over again,.. that really IS criminal. (I'm tempted to add that come the revolution, anti-science loonies will be the first ones up against the wall, but I'm afraid that's just wishful thinking.)

Thanks to the intelligent / knowledgeable / interesting people for making it good enough to make me persist this long. I'm off to read http://earth.geology.yale.edu/~avf5/teaching/Files _pdf/globalwarming_hadleycenter.pdf properly.

PS Morons: you may also wish to reflect upon the fact that mindless stupidity like yours reflects very badly on your country. Stop playing up to your stereotype!

PPS Admin / mod, apologies if you have to take time out to delete this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Drowning...That is the worst way of dying...I think.


As a swimmer who does breath control, you can go a lot longer than you think while holding your breath, and they say the feeling of peace and calm is just beyond the deathly screaming your lungs give you while your coach is making you kick the length of the pool underwater, so its supposedly not that bad.
But its not pleasant.
I suppose fire might be worse.
I always thought being stabbed would be dreadful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
I even remember laying on the bottom of the pool looking up, I was still conscious, and I saw a splash which was my uncle diving in to get me.
Sounds peaceful in a weird kinda way.The only pain I would have felt is the chlorine in my eyes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


can I keep that backyard pic you put up? is nice


Sure! And thanks! I'll have an abundance of pics like that for the next five months :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:


Takes you out of your comfort zone, though.
It was weird.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I rather take that then getting stab or feeling some burning.I would want to go out that way as well.
I even remember laying on the bottom of the pool looking up, I was still conscious, and I saw a splash which was my uncle diving in to get me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

After lull, next wave of energy into CA/OR border coast will have winds > hurr force just above surface layer Thur http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273863416538599 425/photo/1/large
this is very bad!
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting 47n91w:


We already had our first blizzard in Wisconsin, you must've missed it!







can I keep that backyard pic you put up? is nice
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
Dixie Alley has the highest frequency of long-track F3 to F5 tornadoes, making it the most active region in the United States," Frates concluded. Dixie Alley had a frequency value of 2.92, followed by Tornado Alley (2.59), Hoosier Alley (2.37) and Carolina Alley (2.00).
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Staying in TN MS and AL as usual.....
The will be other severe weather events to follow this one I believe. " Dixie Alley " as it is called by the Mets usually has a second severe weather season Nov thru Dec.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
actually, drowning is painless and relatively tranquil..I know, I have drowned.:)
I rather take that then getting stab or feeling some burning.I would want to go out that way as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 125 - 75

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
66 °F
Overcast