Nineteen Atlantic tropical storms 3 consecutive years: a very rare event

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 PM GMT on November 28, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season closes this Friday with another top-five tally for named storms--nineteen. This is the third consecutive year with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic, which is a remarkable level of activity for a three-year period. The closest comparable three-year period of activity occurred during 2003 - 2004 - 2005, when each season had fifteen-plus named storms. Since 1851, only two seasons--2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (20 named storms)--have been busier than 2010, 2011, and 2012.


Figure 1. Preliminary tracks of the nineteen named storms from 2012. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

How rare are 3 consecutive top-five hurricane seasons for named storms?
It is tremendously rare to get three consecutive top-five years in a database with a 162-year record. This would occur randomly just once every 34,000 years--assuming the database were unbiased, the climate were not changing, and a multi-year climate pattern favorable for active seasons were not present. However the database IS biased, the climate IS changing, and we have been in an active hurricane period that began in 1995. So, which of these factors may be responsible for recording three consecutive years with nineteen named storms? It is well-known that prior to the arrival of geostationary satellites in December 1966 and aircraft hurricane reconnaissance in 1945 that tropical storms in the Atlantic were under-counted. Landsea et al. (2004) theorized that we missed up to six named storms per year between 1851 - 1885, and up to four between 1886 - 1910. Landsea (2007) estimated the under-count to be 3.2 named storms per year between 1900 - 1965, and 1.0 per year between 1966 - 2002. Other studies have argued for lower under-counts. So, if we assume the highest under-counts estimated by Landsea et al. (2004) and Landsea (2007), here would be the top ten busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1851:

2005: 28
1887: 25
1933: 23
1995: 20
2012, 2011, 2010, 1969, 1936: 19

So, 2012, 2011, and 2010 would still rank as top-five busiest seasons since 1851, but the odds of having three consecutive seasons with nineteen named storms would drop from a 1-in-34,000 year event to "only" a 1-in-5800 year event. More recently, Landsea et al. (2010) showed that the increasing trend in North Atlantic tropical storm frequency over the past 140 years was largely due to the increasing trend in short‐lived storms (storms lasting 2 days or less, called “shorties”), after the 1940s (Figure 2, top). They did not detect a significant increasing trend in medium‐ to long‐lived storms lasting more than 2 days. They wrote that “while it is possible that the recorded increase in short‐duration TCs [tropical cyclones] represents a real climate signal, we consider it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of the observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques.” Villarini et al. (2011), in a paper titled, "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", agreed. They attempted to correlate increases in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures in recent decades to the increase in short-lived Atlantic tropical storms, and were unable to do so. They wrote: using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century‐scale record of short‐lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long‐term secular increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days. So, let's do that. If we look during the past three hurricane seasons at how many "shorties" were observed, we see that a large number that stayed at tropical storm strength for two days or less: six storms in 2010, six in 2011, and seven in 2012. This leaves the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 with twelve to thirteen tropical storms that lasted more than two days. This doesn't stand out that much when looking at trends since 1878 (Figure 2, bottom); there are now 25 years in the 135-year record with twelve or more long-lived tropical cyclones. However, there are no previous occurrences of three consecutive years with at least twelve long-lived tropical storms, so 2010, 2011, and 2012 still represent an unprecedented level of tropical storm activity in the historical record, and we would expect such an event to occur randomly about once every 157 years. That's a pretty rare event, and it is possible that climate change, combined with the fact we are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, contributed to this rare event.


Figure 2. Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1878 - 2012 that spent two days or less at tropical storm strength (top) and more than two days at tropical storm strength or hurricane strength (bottom.) Figure updated from Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493.

References
Landsea, C. W., C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Dunion, J. Fernandez‐Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer (2004), "The Atlantic hurricane database re‐analysis project: Documentation for 1851–1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database," in Hurricanes and Typhoons ‐ Past, Present, and Future, edited by R. J. Murnane and K. B. Liu, pp. 178–221, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.

Landsea, C. W., (2007), "Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900," Eos, 88(18), 197-202.

Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493

Jeff Masters

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Hey, you guys need to go out and check the FullMoon right now.
There's a Planet (Venus?) right alongside looking like a Luna Satellite.

Real nice cloudfree night here.

EDIT...Actually, it's Jupiter. YLee corrected me. Thanks YLee !
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


terribly bad....
believe me, I have had an argue with Kori about this...

The Weather Channel: Why No Hurricane Warnings for Sandy?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Rare algae bloom turns waters near Sydney’s Bondi Beach blood red
Posted on November 28, 2012




November 27, 2012 – AUSTRALIA – Tourists heading for world-famous Bondi Beach were left high and dry today after a rare natural phenomenon turned the water blood red. Bondi was among several popular beaches in and around Sydney, Australia, which had to be closed after a huge algae bloom transformed the sea into something resembling a scene from a Jaws movie. But despite the warnings a number of intrepid beachgoers were seen venturing into the water and swimming through the red surface, Ten News Sydney reported. Known as Nocturnal Scintillans or sea sparkle it has no toxic effects but people are still advised to avoid swimming in areas with discoloured water because the algae, which can be high in ammonia, can cause skin irritation. British tourists were among large groups of visitors who were told by lifeguards not to enter the water until the all-clear was given because the algae can irritate the skin and cause other health problems. Ken Roberts, 23, from Birmingham, England said: ‘Perhaps I’m just in the wrong country – I thought the Red Sea was somewhere in Asia.’ Local lifeguard Bruce Hopkins said: ‘It has quite a fishy smell to it. ‘It makes the water look like it has a coating of tomato-sauce coloured oil.’ The algae has already disappointing thousands who had headed to the coast to cool off as the summer Down Under finally gets under way of a prolonged cold period. The New South Wales (NSW) Office of Water has been carrying out a series of tests to discover what caused the bloom. One theory is that it was caused by an upwelling of colder nutrient-rich water. –Daily Mail
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Hurricane Sandy to cost New York $42 billion dollars
Posted on November 27, 2012


November 27, 2012 – NEW YORK – Superstorm Sandy ran up a super bill of $42 billion across New York, causing more damage than the infamous Hurricane Katrina, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said Monday, appealing for federal emergency funds. Cuomo told a news conference that Sandy’s impact had by some measures been worse than Katrina, which caused devastation along the US Gulf Coast in 2005. Although Katrina’s death toll at 1,833 was far higher than the approximately 110 killed during last month’s hurricane-strength Sandy, the damage to property and businesses was worse this time round, he said. The total bill in New York and neighboring New Jersey was “62, 61 billion dollars,” Cuomo estimated, although that number seemed sure to rise when including extra funds needed for protection against future storms. In New York state alone, Cuomo said the total cost of recovery work came to $32.8 billion, with another $9.1 billion in prevention expenses. Footing that bill would “incapacitate” New York’s budget, Cuomo said, urging Washington to come to the rescue with federal aid. Earlier, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said America’s biggest city had suffered $19 billion in Sandy-related costs. The Big Apple “will struggle to recover in the long term unless expedited federal funding is supplied,” Bloomberg said. The October 29 hurricane flooded the subway train system, damaged tens of thousands of houses in the New York area, knocked out electricity in swaths of the city for days, and prompted severe fuel shortages. Among the storm’s prominent victims was the Statue of Liberty, which had only just reopened after a year’s refurbishments and is now to be closed again for at least the remainder of 2012. The National Park Service said on its website that “a projected reopening date has not yet been established.” According to the mayor, the net repair bill from the storm falls to $9.8 billion once private insurance and already pledged Federal Emergency Management Agency aid are factored in. But “federal legislative action will be required to address the budget gap that will result once available FEMA funds and insurance proceeds are drawn down,” he said. –Space Daily
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220. vanwx
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes I know that, But would a person take more notice of a hurricane watch or warning issued by the NHC or a hurricane wind warning issued by the NWS/HPC? Remember, Sandy only became post-tropical 30miles off the coast or 1hr before landfall. her effects had well and truly been present on the coast and inland for some time. Why not just stick with Hurricane watches and warnings until Sandy made landfall. Not issuing Watches and Warnings probably cost lives, but we won't find out. And it's not just me that thinks this.


I don't think that. From before Cuba, Sandy was predicted to curve West; a giant storm that rarely made hurricane status. The bickering between NWS and Hurricane central is regrettable but everyone here on this board knew Sandy was up to no good and every local weatherman along the way should have spoken. In particular, the mayors of Hatteras and Atlantic City seem to have been making decisions from old chamber of commerce bulletins, and Bloomberg rolled the dice on this too. 5 million in defence would have saved billions in repairs. I'll always remember Sandy as a great train wreck in slow motion. The warnings were out a week in advance; it's one of the great predictive examples of meteorology. It was the people on the ground that screwed it up.
Member Since: February 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
While the first week of December is expected to be abnormally warm, the second week may not follow. In fact, many of the models show a drastic cool-down. And of those models, many of their ensemble images show snow for the Northern and Central Plains into the Ohio Valley and up into the Northeast. And of those ensemble members, some go completely crazy with snow totals, such as p007 of the 12z GFS.

How does 20-30 inches of snow for a corridor from Daveport, IA to Kansas City, KS to End, OK to Childress, TX sound?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh it's definitely closer than what that infrared satellite image would lead us to believe. It honestly doesn't look too bad this evening.




It'd be good if we could get a more clear new microwave pass. Lots of mixed signals as to it's current intensity. ADT says it's a hurricane but this sure doesn't:

28/2057 UTC 4.8N 150.4E T2.5/2.5 BOPHA -- West Pacific
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh it's definitely closer than what that infrared satellite image would lead us to believe. It honestly doesn't look too bad this evening.





That is why microwave images are very important.
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216. yoboi
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Ignoring uneducated trolls who continually post debunked nonsense and inane conspiracy theories is not putting blinders on. It's a means of increasing the signal-to-noise ratio on this blog.

There's plenty of bat-scat crazy websites on the internet full of screwballs that think everything from the Earth was created 6000 years ago to how the universe is governed entirely by electricity to Obama really is a space alien sent to Earth to prepare for the alien takeover.



have you ever went to a fossil fuel company and tried talking with them?
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
ADT says Bopha is a Typhoon but is not even close to that.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 NOV 2012 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 4:24:31 N Lon : 149:56:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 983.8mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 3.4

Center Temp : -52.9C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE


Oh it's definitely closer than what that infrared satellite image would lead us to believe. It honestly doesn't look too bad this evening.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
ADT says Bopha is a Typhoon but is not even close to that.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 NOV 2012 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 4:24:31 N Lon : 149:56:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 983.8mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 3.4

Center Temp : -52.9C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

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Quoting AussieStorm:
Huge Tornado in Taranto, Italy (November 28, 2012) WOW!!!!!!



Damage after the Tornado.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting AussieStorm:

Simple, Stop cheering for it. If you stop, maybe it might happen. ;-)


This only the end of November. There's the whole of December yet. Ya, I know the season was once thought to 'end' in November, but TSs do not read calendars, and it's a warmer world too.
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The Barometer Bob Show for Thursday night beginning at 8PM/7C November 29, 2012
This will be a 3 hour special. So make sure you are prepared and ready to join us for this broadcast.
My first guest is Scott McPartland, we will talk about Hurricane Sandy and his experiences with this storm in New York. Also other chaser discussion and news.
My second guest is John Ruggiano from Ruggie Weather located in New Jersey. We will discuss his Winter Weather outlook, and chat about other outlooks for the 2012/2013 Winter.
Then being it's the end of the 2012 Hurricane Season we will talk about it and Sandy.
Lots of controversy about whether watches and warnings should have been issued for Sandy. I will be laying it on the line and giving my personal opinion.
Join us in Storm Chat and watch the show live at http://irc.barometerbob.net/
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
An area of Arctic sea ice bigger than the United States melted this year


DOHA, Qatar (AP) — An area of Arctic sea ice bigger than the United States melted this year, according the U.N. weather agency, which said the dramatic decline illustrates that climate change is happening “before our eyes.”

In a report released at U.N. climate talks in the Qatari capital of Doha, the World Meteorological Organization said the Arctic ice melt was one of a myriad of extreme and record-breaking weather events to hit the planet in 2012. Droughts devastated nearly two-thirds of the United States as well western Russia and southern Europe. Floods swamped west Africa and heat waves left much of the Northern Hemisphere sweltering.

But it was the ice melt that seemed to dominate the annual climate report, with the U.N. concluding ice cover had reached “a new record low” in the area around the North Pole and that the loss from March to September was a staggering 11.83 million square kilometers (4.57 million square miles) – an area bigger than the United States.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6037
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The scientists do not have "command" of the data. Most scientific data is freely available online.

Climate scientists dismiss/ignore people who deserve to be dismissed or ignored. The fact is, most so-called skeptics aren't skeptics at all. They are deniers, and responding to them with facts or data, no matter how convincing is a waste of time (as can be seen here on this blog). Deniers are like someone being diagnosed by multiple respectable doctors that they have cancer, them not believing the doctors, and then seeking out quacks who tell them they're just fine.

Scientists have much more productive uses for their time than responding to every yahoo who says "It's da sun, stoopid scientist!".

Scientists have no budget for PR. Unlike billion dollar companies who pay out more in PR money than entire science budgets, there isn't a whole lot of spare change for such niceties.

And lastly, technology is neutral. Like always, it's the people who use it that can cause problems.


I agree that responding to every troll and ignorant loud-mouth would be an endless distraction from doing real science. Some people simply don't want to learn... they want to foment trouble. But I think Theamoeba was generally correct with this:

"...those in the know need to remain engaged with everyone else, to persuade if possible, and, if not possible, at least to know which hand holds the knife."

Plus I think he meant having "command" of the data in the sense of "having a commanding understanding of the data." I think the entire scientific community needs to devote some serious brainpower to exploring how to convey their understanding of the data to the global community created by the internet. A major rethink of the paywall system employed by professional journals is a good starting point - more people need direct access to this stuff.

But I am encouraged by the number of people here (and elsewhere) who are staying engaged, fighting ignorance, and keeping an eye out for knives...
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting indianrivguy:


I agree with that Aussie, but seriously, after a week of pounding them with what was coming, I find it hard to believe that any normal person had no awareness. If after ALL that, they decided to not leave because someone quit calling it a hurricane 12 hours before it arrived, even though ALL the warnings about surge were in place and continued, then they qualify for a Darwin award. My money says all those folks would have ignored ANY warning and stayed no matter.

Sure, you could be right. But we might never know. The NHC said there would be surge, but not the height of surge that came. The NHC underplayed the surge Sandy would bring.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting indianrivguy:


I agree with that Aussie, but seriously, after a week of pounding them with what was coming, I find it hard to believe that any normal person had no awareness. If after ALL that, they decided to not leave because someone quit calling it a hurricane 12 hours before it arrived, even though ALL the warnings about surge were in place and continued, then they qualify for a Darwin award. My money says all those folks would have ignored ANY warning and stayed no matter.


yeah like it's not a hurricane so no big deal....YES a BIG deal
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


terribly bad....
believe me, I have had an argue with Kori about this...

Yes Sandy wasn't a Hurricane at landfall but tell that to the people she was already effecting, tell that to the people that were stuck in there houses when the storm surge arrived. If there was Hurricane watches and warning up for the DE,NJ, NY, MA coasts. Would people that lived on the coast or within a mile or so still of stayed or would they have left.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yes I know that, But would a person take more notice of a hurricane watch or warning issued by the NHC or a hurricane wind warning issued by the NWS/HPC? Remember, Sandy only became post-tropical 30miles off the coast or 1hr before landfall. her effects had well and truly been present on the coast and inland for some time. Why not just stick with Hurricane watches and warnings until Sandy made landfall. Not issuing Watches and Warnings probably cost lives, but we won't find out. And it's not just me that thinks this.


I agree with that Aussie, but seriously, after a week of pounding them with what was coming, I find it hard to believe that any normal person had no awareness. If after ALL that, they decided to not leave because someone quit calling it a hurricane 12 hours before it arrived, even though ALL the warnings about surge were in place and continued, then they qualify for a Darwin award. My money says all those folks would have ignored ANY warning and stayed no matter.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

But the NHC stopped the Hurricane watches and warnings and passed it onto the NWS to issue hurricane wind warnings. IMHO Sandy was handled badly by the NHC.


terribly bad....
believe me, I have had an argue with Kori about this...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Huge Tornado in Taranto, Italy (November 28, 2012) WOW!!!!!!



Damage after the Tornado.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
I honestly enjoyed making Hurricane Kirk's Tropical Cyclone Report. It was a cool storm. Check it out below.

Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Kirk (AL112012)

Joyce's will be out a little later. Expect Oscar and Patty's tomorrow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting ScottLincoln:


The National Hurricane Center is part of the National Weather Service.

The NHC covers tropical weather for the National Weather Service and the HPC covers general weather. They coordinate frequently on these types of events. When Sandy was no longer considered tropical, the HPC took over, but it was all covered by the National Weather Service the entire time.

Yes I know that, But would a person take more notice of a hurricane watch or warning issued by the NHC or a hurricane wind warning issued by the NWS/HPC? Remember, Sandy only became post-tropical 30miles off the coast or 1hr before landfall. her effects had well and truly been present on the coast and inland for some time. Why not just stick with Hurricane watches and warnings until Sandy made landfall. Not issuing Watches and Warnings probably cost lives, but we won't find out. And it's not just me that thinks this.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting AussieStorm:

But the NHC stopped the Hurricane watches and warnings and passed it onto the NWS to issue hurricane wind warnings. IMHO Sandy was handled badly by the NHC.

Interesting scenario!
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Quoting JustPlantIt:
Ignoring people puts a blinder on... Science is ever evolving. To silence that, you quit evolving and understanding.  AND learning... weather your ideas or someone elses.


Ignoring uneducated trolls who continually post debunked nonsense and inane conspiracy theories is not putting blinders on. It's a means of increasing the signal-to-noise ratio on this blog.

There's plenty of bat-scat crazy websites on the internet full of screwballs that think everything from the Earth was created 6000 years ago to how the universe is governed entirely by electricity to Obama really is a space alien sent to Earth to prepare for the alien takeover.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Little by Little the news is seeping out and now even the "peers," whoever they are, are admitting that things are changing.
Heres a quote:-
"In a peer-reviewed study, the experts said satellite data show sea levels rose by 3.2 millimeters (0.1 inch) a year from 1993 to 2011 — 60 percent faster than the 2 mm annual rise projected by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for that period."

Heres the link, from NBC:-

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/28/155 12957-sea-level-rose-60-percent-faster-than-un-pro jections-study-finds?lite

Interesting tornado in Italy today, which some people posted on the previous blog. Winds of about 70MPH in the Barcelona area on the edge of another big Mediterranean storm.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

But the NHC stopped the Hurricane watches and warnings and passed it onto the NWS to issue hurricane wind warnings. IMHO Sandy was handled badly by the NHC.


The National Hurricane Center is part of the National Weather Service.

The NHC covers tropical weather for the National Weather Service and the HPC covers general weather. They coordinate frequently on these types of events. When Sandy was no longer considered tropical, the HPC took over, but it was all covered by the National Weather Service the entire time.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Oh it's definitely getting retired, I was just kind of commenting.

I think the NHC kept Sandy as a hurricane as it approached Jersey partly because they did not know what else to do with the storm. Continuing advisories on the storm was the only good way to heighten public awareness. For once I don't object to the idea, the storm deserved special treatment, lol.

If it gets a name it gets attention.

But the NHC stopped the Hurricane watches and warnings and passed it onto the NWS to issue hurricane wind warnings. IMHO Sandy was handled badly by the NHC.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting theamoeba:


IMO, there's debate that's part of the process of achieving and building on a consensus, and there's "debate" that functions to block consensus. I should think that, after the election campaigns just concluded, we'd all be heartily sick of the second type. Also IMO, though, a mistake many in the scientific community make is to assume that, since they have command of the data, they can safely ignore or dismiss those who do not. These people are perhaps ignorant of Amoeba's Corollary to Clarke's Third Law ("Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic"), to wit, "Sooner or later, all magic is black". Frustrating as it can be, those in the know need to remain engaged with everyone else, to persuade if possible, and, if not possible, at least to know which hand holds the knife.


The scientists do not have "command" of the data. Most scientific data is freely available online.

Climate scientists dismiss/ignore people who deserve to be dismissed or ignored. The fact is, most so-called skeptics aren't skeptics at all. They are deniers, and responding to them with facts or data, no matter how convincing is a waste of time (as can be seen here on this blog). Deniers are like someone being diagnosed by multiple respectable doctors that they have cancer, them not believing the doctors, and then seeking out quacks who tell them they're just fine.

Scientists have much more productive uses for their time than responding to every yahoo who says "It's da sun, stoopid scientist!".

Scientists have no budget for PR. Unlike billion dollar companies who pay out more in PR money than entire science budgets, there isn't a whole lot of spare change for such niceties.

And lastly, technology is neutral. Like always, it's the people who use it that can cause problems.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm just guessing, because there was significant damage done in the day. It wasn't until just before landfall that Sandy was considered post-tropical, so a significant amount of damage is being considered to have taken place from Hurricane Sandy, instead of post-tropical cyclone Sandy. Not retiring it would be a really quick way for the WMO to look unpopular. Besides, like I said, they have no excuse to fail to retire Sandy- Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Bahamas all took significant hits, and at least Cuba will request retirement. The United States will probably request retirement when the time comes, and the WMO can't reject it.


Oh it's definitely getting retired, I was just kind of commenting.

I think the NHC kept Sandy as a hurricane as it approached Jersey partly because they did not know what else to do with the storm. Continuing advisories on the storm was the only good way to heighten public awareness. For once I don't object to the idea, the storm deserved special treatment, lol.

If it gets a name it gets attention.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Yep, working now. Chrome automatically translates it to English with a click of a button.
I forget that lol.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I might be able to read some of it without using a translator.


Don't you love when a news helicopter is hovering right near your house and you don't know why.
Haven`t seen so much flood since 2008 when td 16 affect the region thank God the place where I live now doesn`t flood easily.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4341
Quoting wxgeek723:


Wait how can they determine whether or not the damage was before or after the NHC declared her post-tropical? The damage between an extratropical and a tropical system is kind of, well, ambiguous.

I think it's debatable if Sandy should be considered a hurricane disaster. IMO the last time she was 100% tropical was in the Bahamas. After that she just went through a long, awkward, and complex transitioning stage of being some sort of half hurricane if you will. How else could she drop snow in the interior mountains while she was 'still tropical' ?

Oh and I really need to stop referring to these storms with he and she, bad habit. They don't have sexes Lol.


I'm just guessing, because there was significant damage done in the day. It wasn't until just before landfall that Sandy was considered post-tropical, so a significant amount of damage is being considered to have taken place from Hurricane Sandy, instead of post-tropical cyclone Sandy. Not retiring it would be a really quick way for the WMO to look unpopular. Besides, like I said, they have no excuse to fail to retire Sandy- Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Bahamas all took significant hits, and at least Cuba will request retirement. The United States will probably request retirement when the time comes, and the WMO can't reject it.
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Quoting T3b0w:
do any models show it developing?

GFS, ECMWF, CMC etc show development. Those images were from the CMC and the GFS.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Mate! I hope all is well.

Mornin' just waiting for the hot blast of desert air to hit Sydney. Today(Thursday) at my place is meant to reach 35C(95F), Friday forecast is for 39C(102F), Saturday 41C(106F), Sunday back down to 29C(82F). 1st day of Summer starts with a scorcher.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
188. T3b0w
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm getting tired of cheering on a storm to become Valerie. Let's see how this one goes...





do any models show it developing?
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Whenever a hurricane has had a major impact, any country affected by the storm can request that the name of the hurricane be "retired" by agreement of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Retiring a name actually means that it cannot be reused for at least 10 years, to facilitate historic references, legal actions, insurance claim activities, etc. and avoid public confusion with another storm of the same name. ^^^^ From NOAA


Sandy will most likely be retired if not because of the damage on the US, then the damage in Cuba and Haiti. Also they want to avoid public confusion and if in 6 years we hear Hurricane Sandy some people may get confused
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Quoting allancalderini:
I fix it. just look the pictures as the information is in spanish :)

I might be able to read some of it without using a translator.


Don't you love when a news helicopter is hovering right near your house and you don't know why.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting allancalderini:
I fix it. just look the pictures as the information is in spanish :)

Yep, working now. Chrome automatically translates it to English with a click of a button.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Thank you Dr. Masters. I wondered how the impact of improved technology to find storms had impacted our number of named storms. We need more good science like this to make the global warming argument and less sensationalism.
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Mornin' Mate! I hope all is well.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


If I wanted to see his tweets I'd follow him on twitter.

Oh, sorry, I thought this blog was for sharing of weather information? Please excuse us, we are very sorry. NOT
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Sandy did significant damage, over 30 billion, while tropical the day of landfall. Sandy was also among the top 5 most destructive hurricanes to ever hit Cuba. 100% chance Sandy's gone. That, and all the damage to the United States is counting towards Sandy from what I can see, making it the 2nd most destructive hurricane ever.


Wait how can they determine whether or not the damage was before or after the NHC declared her post-tropical? The damage between an extratropical and a tropical system is kind of, well, ambiguous.

I think it's debatable if Sandy should be considered a hurricane disaster. IMO the last time she was 100% tropical was in the Bahamas. After that she just went through a long, awkward, and complex transitioning stage of being some sort of half hurricane if you will. How else could she drop snow in the interior mountains while she was 'still tropical' ?

Oh and I really need to stop referring to these storms with he and she, bad habit. They don't have sexes Lol.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Your link is not working.
I fix it. just look the pictures as the information is in spanish :)
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4341
Quoting allancalderini:
Link
Flooding was extreme yesterday. 4 people has been reported dead and a same number of missing are being report and sadly is expected to climb.

Your link is not working.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm getting tired of cheering on a storm to become Valerie. Let's see how this one goes...






Simple, Stop cheering for it. If you stop, maybe it might happen. ;-)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Link
Flooding was extreme yesterday. 4 people has been reported dead and a same number of missing are being report and sadly is expected to climb.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4341
Darren Peck‏@WeatherAnchor

Rain coming to an end right on schedule with just over half an inch in most Sac gauges. Friday a.m. is the next soaker. Bigger than today.
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PG&E‏@PGE4Me

#CentralCoast Outage Update (2 PM): Monterey County – 700; #SantaCruz County – 2,500; San Benito County – 190; Central Coast Total – 3,390
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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