Nineteen Atlantic tropical storms 3 consecutive years: a very rare event

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 PM GMT on November 28, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season closes this Friday with another top-five tally for named storms--nineteen. This is the third consecutive year with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic, which is a remarkable level of activity for a three-year period. The closest comparable three-year period of activity occurred during 2003 - 2004 - 2005, when each season had fifteen-plus named storms. Since 1851, only two seasons--2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (20 named storms)--have been busier than 2010, 2011, and 2012.


Figure 1. Preliminary tracks of the nineteen named storms from 2012. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

How rare are 3 consecutive top-five hurricane seasons for named storms?
It is tremendously rare to get three consecutive top-five years in a database with a 162-year record. This would occur randomly just once every 34,000 years--assuming the database were unbiased, the climate were not changing, and a multi-year climate pattern favorable for active seasons were not present. However the database IS biased, the climate IS changing, and we have been in an active hurricane period that began in 1995. So, which of these factors may be responsible for recording three consecutive years with nineteen named storms? It is well-known that prior to the arrival of geostationary satellites in December 1966 and aircraft hurricane reconnaissance in 1945 that tropical storms in the Atlantic were under-counted. Landsea et al. (2004) theorized that we missed up to six named storms per year between 1851 - 1885, and up to four between 1886 - 1910. Landsea (2007) estimated the under-count to be 3.2 named storms per year between 1900 - 1965, and 1.0 per year between 1966 - 2002. Other studies have argued for lower under-counts. So, if we assume the highest under-counts estimated by Landsea et al. (2004) and Landsea (2007), here would be the top ten busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1851:

2005: 28
1887: 25
1933: 23
1995: 20
2012, 2011, 2010, 1969, 1936: 19

So, 2012, 2011, and 2010 would still rank as top-five busiest seasons since 1851, but the odds of having three consecutive seasons with nineteen named storms would drop from a 1-in-34,000 year event to "only" a 1-in-5800 year event. More recently, Landsea et al. (2010) showed that the increasing trend in North Atlantic tropical storm frequency over the past 140 years was largely due to the increasing trend in short‐lived storms (storms lasting 2 days or less, called “shorties”), after the 1940s (Figure 2, top). They did not detect a significant increasing trend in medium‐ to long‐lived storms lasting more than 2 days. They wrote that “while it is possible that the recorded increase in short‐duration TCs [tropical cyclones] represents a real climate signal, we consider it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of the observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques.” Villarini et al. (2011), in a paper titled, "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", agreed. They attempted to correlate increases in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures in recent decades to the increase in short-lived Atlantic tropical storms, and were unable to do so. They wrote: using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century‐scale record of short‐lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long‐term secular increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days. So, let's do that. If we look during the past three hurricane seasons at how many "shorties" were observed, we see that a large number that stayed at tropical storm strength for two days or less: six storms in 2010, six in 2011, and seven in 2012. This leaves the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 with twelve to thirteen tropical storms that lasted more than two days. This doesn't stand out that much when looking at trends since 1878 (Figure 2, bottom); there are now 25 years in the 135-year record with twelve or more long-lived tropical cyclones. However, there are no previous occurrences of three consecutive years with at least twelve long-lived tropical storms, so 2010, 2011, and 2012 still represent an unprecedented level of tropical storm activity in the historical record, and we would expect such an event to occur randomly about once every 157 years. That's a pretty rare event, and it is possible that climate change, combined with the fact we are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, contributed to this rare event.


Figure 2. Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1878 - 2012 that spent two days or less at tropical storm strength (top) and more than two days at tropical storm strength or hurricane strength (bottom.) Figure updated from Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493.

References
Landsea, C. W., C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Dunion, J. Fernandez‐Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer (2004), "The Atlantic hurricane database re‐analysis project: Documentation for 1851–1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database," in Hurricanes and Typhoons ‐ Past, Present, and Future, edited by R. J. Murnane and K. B. Liu, pp. 178–221, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.

Landsea, C. W., (2007), "Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900," Eos, 88(18), 197-202.

Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493

Jeff Masters

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Quoting pcola57:
You might get your snow Wash by Xmas..
I was looking at the maps posted yesterday and (of course thats waaay far out..) you will have the precip in place and cold air..just timing is all..
And yes the blog is slow..But some of us are here..!!
The odds of having snow on christmas is 20% out of 100.The last time we saw the white stuff on the ground was back in 2009.On 12/25/09 it was a wet christmas.It was rain instead of snow because temps had stayed into the 40's for most of the week.
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Quoting pcola57:
You might get your snow Wash by Xmas..
I was looking at the maps posted yesterday and (of course thats waaay far out..) you will have the precip in place and cold air..just timing is all..
And yes the blog is slow..But some of us are here..!!

Keep the blog going while I'm in bed. Don't forget the end of the 2012 Hurricane Season Barometer Bob show is on tonight your time at 8pm eastern. This will be a 3 hour special. So make sure you are prepared and ready to join us for this broadcast.
My first guest is Scott McPartland, we will talk about Hurricane Sandy and his experiences with this storm in New York. Also other chaser discussion and news.
My second guest is John Ruggiano from Ruggie Weather located in New Jersey. We will discuss his Winter Weather outlook, and chat about other outlooks for the 2012/2013 Winter.
Then being it's the end of the 2012 Hurricane Season we will talk about it and Sandy.
Lots of controversy about whether watches and warnings should have been issued for Sandy. Bob will be laying it on the line and giving my personal opinion.
Join us in Storm Chat and watch the show live at http://irc.barometerbob.net/

I hope skype in to let you know how the heat wave is going. 35c today, 39c friday 41c saturday. Also I'll give you my thoughts on Sandy and talk about the quick start to the severe storm season here. If time permits.

Goodnight all. Catch ya's in the a.m
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[removed duplicate]
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


Odd thing is, they do a very poor job sourcing where the forecast for "-20C in December or January" comes from, as well as where the claim of "coldest winter in 100 years" comes from. Probably shouldn't give it much credit until it can be sourced better.


Looked it over and agree..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915


Winter Storm for the Dakotas.
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Quoting yonzabam:
'Britain Prepares For Coldest Winter in 100 Years'

We've had the wettest summer for 100 years. Anyone would think the climate is a changin'.

Link


Odd thing is, they do a very poor job sourcing where the forecast for "-20C in December or January" comes from, as well as where the claim of "coldest winter in 100 years" comes from. Probably shouldn't give it much credit until it can be sourced better.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


'

In Australia, temperatures were 0.58 degrees below average from January to October, driven by cooler-than-average minimum temperatures, especially between February and August. After higher-than-normal rainfall over the past two years, thanks to La Nina, levels have returned to near normal in 2012.



Thast's very interesting Aussie..
But now your back to post La Nina conditions..
Stormy weather 'eh??
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
US coastal cities in danger as sea levels rise faster than expected, study warns

Link
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Quoting VaStormGuy:
Hey, um, guys....

Your kidding right?
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You might get your snow Wash by Xmas..
I was looking at the maps posted yesterday and (of course thats waaay far out..) you will have the precip in place and cold air..just timing is all..
And yes the blog is slow..But some of us are here..!!
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
2012 shaping as ninth hottest

THE world is on track for its ninth warmest year. Temperatures were below average for the past decade thanks to La Nina's cooling effects but were still higher than long-term averages.

The World Meteorological Organisation says that average global temperatures have been about 0.45 degrees above the 1961-1990 average of 14.2.

The results are drawn from three data sets from between January and October. The WMO will update the results in March.

It says this year continues a long-term trend of warming caused by climate change as a result of human induced-emissions of greenhouse gases and it points to record levels of Arctic sea ice melting as an indication of the changes.

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The data was released early on Thursday as representatives of about 200 countries met in Doha, Qatar, for international climate change negotiations.

In a statement, the organisation's secretary-general, Michel Jarraud, said: ''Naturally occurring climate variability due to phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina impact on temperatures and precipitation on a seasonal to annual scale. But they do not alter the underlying long-term trend of rising temperatures due to climate change as a result of human activities.

"The extent of Arctic sea ice reached a record low. The alarming rate of its melt this year highlighted the far-reaching changes taking place on Earth's oceans and biosphere,'' he said.

''Climate change is taking place before our eyes and will continue to do so as a result of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which have risen constantly and again reached new records.''

In Australia, temperatures were 0.58 degrees below average from January to October, driven by cooler-than-average minimum temperatures, especially between February and August. After higher-than-normal rainfall over the past two years, thanks to La Nina, levels have returned to near normal in 2012.

But the organisation says large parts of the world experienced higher temperatures, especially north America, southern Europe, western and central Russia and north-western Asia.

Satellite measurements have confirmed that Antarctica is losing land-bound ice because of climate change, ending decades of uncertainty. A study published in the US journal Science shows Antarctica losing a net 71 billion tonnes of ice each year, but still being vastly outpaced by the rate of ice loss in Greenland. There, about 152 billion tonnes of ice annually is turning to water.

With REUTERS
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Looks wet at the Mcdonalds drive through..LOL..
Webcam Eureka, California
Quoting MrMixon:
Another vortex (this one on the radar for Eureka, CA). That looks wet...

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
Well the blog is dead this morning.A surprise considering we have a parade of storms on the west coast.
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Another vortex (this one on the radar for Eureka, CA). That looks wet...

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting MrMixon:
Speaking of vortices...


(Click image to embiggen)

Cloud Vortices Off Saint Helena Island

NASA's Terra satellite passed over the South Atlantic Ocean on November 15, 2012, allowing the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument flying aboard to capture this true-color image of St. Helena Island and the band of wind-blown cloud vortices trailing towards the island's leeward side.

St. Helena Island is a tiny island lying approximately 1,860 kilometers (1,156 miles) west of Africa. Volcanic in origin, it has rugged topography with steep, sharp peaks and deep ravines. Wind, which can blow unimpeded for hundreds of miles across the ocean, strikes the face of the mountains, and is forced around the unyielding terrain. As it blows around the island, the air spins on the leeward side, much like a flowing river forms eddies on the downriver side of a piling. The spinning wind forms intricate – and mathematically predictable – patterns. When clouds are in the sky, these beautiful patterns become visible from above.

Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team




Very cool and beautiful..thanks for sharing..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
Well we hit the freezing mark this morning and I actually scraped some ice off of my windows.It was cold enough for snow but as usual we had no moisture around.I wish it would stay like this through December but the temperature forecast is calling mild for a few days.Shoot!.If this carries on we'll have another snowless December.
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Speaking of vortices...


(Click image to embiggen)

Cloud Vortices Off Saint Helena Island

NASA's Terra satellite passed over the South Atlantic Ocean on November 15, 2012, allowing the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument flying aboard to capture this true-color image of St. Helena Island and the band of wind-blown cloud vortices trailing towards the island's leeward side.

St. Helena Island is a tiny island lying approximately 1,860 kilometers (1,156 miles) west of Africa. Volcanic in origin, it has rugged topography with steep, sharp peaks and deep ravines. Wind, which can blow unimpeded for hundreds of miles across the ocean, strikes the face of the mountains, and is forced around the unyielding terrain. As it blows around the island, the air spins on the leeward side, much like a flowing river forms eddies on the downriver side of a piling. The spinning wind forms intricate – and mathematically predictable – patterns. When clouds are in the sky, these beautiful patterns become visible from above.

Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
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Most current on Bopha that I can verify..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
From NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division..

"Computer issues causing delays, please check all product dates/times."
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
Quoting AussieStorm:
I thought this was quiet cool.



Is that a jet flying into smoke? You can see the reason modern jets have wing-tip winglets. An enormous amount of energy goes into the wind tip vorticies. Anything to reduce those and instead increase the energy going into lift saves fuel.
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Good Morning All,
47 and mostly cloudy here this am..


Webcam from my area


My WU weather





Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6915
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
2??




That shows up on the CMC global was well, but rather as a zone of enhanced convection east of the Bahamas, not a developed circulation. In the meantime a crazy Rossby wave with a another sub-950 off the west coast and another shot of cold air for the NE in the middle of next week.
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I thought this was quiet cool.

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The so-called "ARkstorm" dissapates at 108.

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NASA Study Could Improve Hurricane Strength Forecasts

November 28, 2012

PASADENA, Calif. - Forecasters could soon be better able to predict how intense tropical cyclones like Hurricane Sandy will be by analyzing relative-humidity levels within their large-scale environments, finds a new NASA-led study.

Scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., UCLA and the University of Hawaii at Manoa analyzed relative humidity data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua spacecraft for nearly 200 North Atlantic hurricanes between 2002 and 2010. The AIRS data were then compared with various types of post-storm data collected from all available sources by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center, including measured maximum sustained winds.

The researchers found the hurricanes that rapidly intensified tended to exist within a moister large-scale environment than weaker storms. The rapidly intensifying hurricanes had statistically significant higher relative-humidity levels in their environments than storms whose intensity was weakening or unchanged.

Lead author and former JPL postdoctoral scholar Longtao Wu, now an assistant researcher at the UCLA-JPL Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, said the study could lead to improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts.

"Our results show relative humidity and its variations within a hurricane's large-scale environment may be useful predictors in improving intensity forecast models," Wu said. "This is the first satellite analysis to quantify this small but statistically significant correlation." Results of the study were published recently in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Hurricane forecasters strive to predict where a storm is heading and how strong it will be. Since the early 1990s, they have significantly improved forecasts of hurricane paths in the Atlantic basin, by about two to four percent a year. But forecasts of hurricane intensity have improved much slower -- less than one percent a year in the Atlantic basin since the mid-1980s. In other ocean basins, like the eastern and western North Pacific, improvements in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are nearly 10 times smaller than those of track forecasts.

Changes in hurricane intensity are sensitive to numerous factors, both within the storms themselves and also in their surrounding environments. Environmental relative humidity is one factor, and it generally decreases the farther you get from a storm's center. Other factors include sea surface temperature, ocean heat content and vertical wind shear.

Wu and his colleagues sorted the AIRS relative humidity data by storm intensity and intensification rates, and classified them based on their distance from storm center and also by what quadrant of the storm they came from relative to the storm's direction of travel (front right, front left, rear right and rear left). Generally, a hurricane's right side relative to its direction of travel is the most dangerous. This is because a hurricane's wind speed is amplified by the speed of its steering winds. Storm surge is also higher on a hurricane's right side.

The team found substantial differences in relative-humidity levels between storm quadrants. One factor may be the shape of the Atlantic basin. Hurricanes in the Atlantic usually travel to the west or northwest -- regions that are drier, climatologically-speaking, than from where the storms originated. This causes the front two quadrants of Atlantic hurricanes to be drier than their rear two quadrants.

A unique result the team found is that in their front-right quadrants, rapidly intensifying hurricanes tended to have sharply higher amounts of upper tropospheric moisture near their centers than they did farther from their centers.

"We speculate that decreasing relative humidity levels farther from a storm's center may be an important factor in a cyclone's rapid intensification," said JPL co-author Hui Su. "A drier environment farther from a storm's center limits the development of its outer rain bands and favors the growth of its inner core. Conversely, a wet environment farther from a storm's center can weaken a cyclone by making it easier for rain bands to form outside the storm's core, which compete with the inner core's growth."

"Most scientists have tended to view hurricane intensification as a process that takes place within a cyclone's inner core and depends more on smaller-scale processes than on a storm's large-scale environment," said JPL co-author Bjorn Lambrigtsen. "This study shows a different path, and the usefulness of incorporating large-scale environmental data collected far away from a storm's center."

Su said NASA is exploring collaborations with NOAA forecasters to incorporate AIRS relative humidity data into NOAA's real-time hurricane prediction system.

For more on AIRS, visit: http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/ .

The California Institute of Technology in Pasadena manages JPL for NASA.
Link
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Quoting air360:
Does anyone know where I can see the CFSv2 snow forecast model runs? I saw on a few sites people were posting the accum snow forecast for the end of december. I was just trying to figure out where they got those graphics so I could add it to my books for the future :)



One of those ensemble runs built a glacier down into the deep south!

Ok, that may be overstating it, but it sure was impressive for cold and snow around Christmas!



I'm dreaming of a white christmas. Just like the ones I never knew....
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Does anyone know where I can see the CFSv2 snow forecast model runs? I saw on a few sites people were posting the accum snow forecast for the end of december. I was just trying to figure out where they got those graphics so I could add it to my books for the future :)
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Happy Friday!
For Aussie and flex schedule folks.

Sorry to hear about the blazing heat, storms, and fatality. Hope mates are careful around downed power lines.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting AussieStorm:

Same here.
We are expecting a hot two days here. Friday Max 39C(102.2F) and Saturday Max 41C(105.8F). Strangely hot for this early. Saturday is the official start to our summer. If it's a warning of things to come. This summer is going to be a down right scorcher.


We're to be in the lower seventies tomorrow and Saturday. I hate the scorching summers sometimes, but love the 'warmer' winters. I wake up to thirties one morning and fifties the next day. Luckily, if we get daily temps in the thirties, it only lasts a couple of days and then back to forties and fifties. Compared to up north, I'm happy with those winter temps.

Everyone have a great Thursday and Aussie, have a great Friday!
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


My thoughts and prayers to his family.

Same here.
We are expecting a hot two days here. Friday Max 39C(102.2F) and Saturday Max 41C(105.8F). Strangely hot for this early. Saturday is the official start to our summer. If it's a warning of things to come. This summer is going to be a down right scorcher.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Unfortunately one man was killed when a tree fell on his caravan.


My thoughts and prayers to his family.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning/evening all.
Aussie, horrible weather down there for you guys. Hope no one was badly hurt!

Good Morning

Unfortunately....

Deadly storm: Man dies after tree crushes caravan

A man has died after a tree fell on a caravan park home during a severe storm that lashed Perth and Western Australia's southern coast.
The incident occurred about 3:00am (AWST) at the Lake Navarino Forest Resort near Waroona, south of Perth.
The manager of the resort, Brad, described the death as a 'freak accident'.
He told the ABC, the tree that hit the home was at least 15 metres tall, and he believes the victim was asleep at the time.
Brad says he was alerted to the incident by other residents in the park.
The victim's body has been removed and a report into the incident will be prepared for the Coroner.
The Department of Environment and Conservation, which leases the park to its current owner, will conduct its own investigation into the incident.
State Emergency Services spokesman Allen Gale says firefighters worked frantically to free the 48-year-old Perth man.
"They engaged a mini excavator at one stage to assist with the removal of the tree. Unfortunately there was one man found inside the caravan and they were unable to save his life," he said.
The SES received more than 200 calls for help overnight as the storm lashed the state's south.
Mr Gale expects there will be many more calls this morning.
"We've had a steady flow of calls coming in overnight, but as people are waking this morning and moving outside to check their properties, we're getting an increased number of calls," he said.
"So we encourage people to check around their property, and be careful of fallen trees and any debris that could be around."
SES crews were called to help as the storm tore roofs off buildings and brought down trees and powerlines, cutting off power to thousands of homes.
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services says Avonvale Primary School at Northam received significant structural damage and will be closed today.
Samson Primary School, the Terrace Hotel on St Georges Terrace, and the Beatty Park Aquatic Centre also received significant roof damage.
Beaches along the south-west coast were closed as surf conditions became too dangerous and all ferry services to and from Rottnest Island were cancelled, disrupting the plans of many school leavers.
Wind speeds of up to 100kph were recorded in the Perth metro area.
Western Power says 50,000 customers were blacked out at the height of the storm, but that is down to 6,000.
The weather bureau has now cancelled a severe weather warning for Perth and says conditions will clear in the next few hours.
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Good morning/evening all.
Aussie, horrible weather down there for you guys. Hope no one was badly hurt!
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Strong winds wreak havoc in Perth's CBD

Tens of thousands of homes may remain without power overnight after a storm swept across Perth and south-west Western Australia.
Emergency services have received more than 150 calls for help and Western Power says more than 50,000 properties have lost power, with the suburbs of Kelmscott, Gosnells and Forrestfield the worst affected.
The Weather Bureau is predicting heavy rain and wind gusts of up to 125 kilometres per hour overnight.
Western Power's Heidi Coach says crews may not be able to restore power to all homes overnight.
"It could be some time until we reconnect everybody so we are asking people very kindly if they could be patient with us," she said.
"Our crews are working in some pretty tough conditions out there, it's pretty windy and wet in places, mostly windy, to get the power back on so it could be a good evening for a candlelit dinner."
Residents in regional areas including Australind, Dandaragan and Narrogin are have also been affected by power outages.
A gust of wind tore a section of roof from the Terrace Hotel on St Georges Terrace in Perth's CBD as the storm swept over just after 11am (AWST).
One of its chimneys collapsed, sending bricks crashing to the street below and damaging a pedestrian walkway.
A number of houses and two primary schools were also damaged.
Flights departing Perth have been affected and passengers are being told to expect delays.

Blown away

Hundreds of schoolies in Dunsborough were stranded after the wild weather blew away tents at the main camp ground earlier on Wednesday.
More than 40 tents were completely destroyed by strong wind gusts and many more were ripped from the ground at Dunsborough Lakes Holiday resort, where at least 600 school leavers are camping.
Owner Herbie Schaal says the weather was too severe for the tents to withstand.
"It's just ripped through them all and they're desperately trying to hold the tents together with tape and ropes but as they are hanging on to it, it's just ripping apart under them," he said.
"We are trying to help them with everything but the gale force wind and the rain is just not giving anyone a chance now."
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services says it received a number of calls about fallen trees from as far south as Australind to Marangaroo, north of Perth.
A boat has sunk off Bunbury while another was set adrift.
Police say two boats broke their moorings near Bunbury's Koombana Sailing Club this morning.
The Department of Fisheries brought one of them back to shore and anchored it safely while the search continues for the other boat.
Weather bureau spokesman Noel Pusey says farmers in the Wheatbelt have already had a lot more rain than average this month.
"There's a number of places, particularly in the Wheatbelt, that are either on or very close to their record monthly rainfall for November," he said.
Salmon Gums wheat grower Rory Graham says he is worried the rain will damage his crop.
"When wheat's had three good rain events on it, it will suffer a bit of damage," he said.
The low is expected to move off the coast overnight and early Thursday morning with temperatures returning to the mid 20s by the weekend.

Video

ABC 2012
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' gang!

Good evening Mate!

Evening Mate!

Hottest spring day on record

Victoria has recorded its hottest November day with a small town in the state's north-west reaching close to 46 degrees.

The town of Ouyen has recorded a new record of 45.8°C(114.4°F).

It reached the soaring temperatures at about 3.00pm.

Earlier the Weather Bureau had reported a record of 45.5°C(113.9°C) in Mildura.

It is the first time the state has passed 45°C(113°C) in November since 1905 when the previous record of 45°C(113°C) was set.

Weather Bureau senior forecaster Dean Stewart says it is unusual the November record has stood for more than a century.

"The fact that it's lasted so long might be more surprising," he said.

"In these days when we seem to have an increased number of hot days, I guess for a record to last that long is a little surprising, but it had to be passed at some stage and today's the day."

Mr Stewart says the heat has been building up inland over the last few weeks.

"Mildura's now had a run of days, five successive days before today, above 35°C(95°C) and to top it off with a day of 45°C(113°C) is fairly unusual," he said.

"Of course reaching 45.4°C(113.7°F) is obviously never happened before , so I guess you could say unprecedented heat over the north west of the state."

Battling fires

As the state endured its hottest spring day on record, firefighters have been battling a number of grassfires, including a fast-moving one that has burnt through 100 hectares in central Victoria.

Two fire-fighting aircraft are helping to attack the fire which broke out near the town of Baringhup, between Maryborough and Castlemaine, just after 3.00pm.

The Country Fire Authority (CFA) has issued a 'watch and act' alert for residents of Baringhup, Baringhup West, Carisbrook, Joyces Creek and Moolort.

Duty officer Brett Boatman says other fires at Dartmoor and Edenhope in the state's west and near Talbot, also in central Victoria, have been contained.

"It's hot and reasonably windy through the central part of Victoria and in that area, the fuels up there are fairly dry," he said.

"We are expecting a wind change to move through the state, but not until later in the evening which will bring cooler conditions, but yes, the weather conditions certainly aren't helping."



Ambulance Victoria says it has received eight reports of children being left unattended in cars.

Operations manager Paul Holman says it only takes a couple of minutes for a child to die in a hot vehicle.

Commuters are also being warned to expect delays leaving the city this afternoon.

VLine says it's imposed a heat speed restriction, which is expected to add about 20 minutes to most journeys.

And Metro has replaced services on the Upfield line with buses, because of problems with the tracks.

The Bureau of Meteorology says a cool change, courtesy of a thunderstorm, is expected after midnight, and tomorrow in Melbourne is likely to be 26°C, with patchy rain.


- ABC

© ABC 2012
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Mexican weather forecast:

Cold today, Hot Tamale!





SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 AM EST THU NOV 29 2012

VALID 12Z THU NOV 29 2012 - 12Z SAT DEC 01 2012

***BAD WEATHER FOR THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY***

***SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE GREAT LAKES***

***PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE U.S.***

A PROLONGED DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS
SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. ON THURSDAY, AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
HAMMER AREAS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO WASHINGTON
STATE, WITH TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN AND SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW IN
THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS ABOVE TREELINE. FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
MAY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT.
GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WATERS, STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE ALSO
IN EFFECT.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST STATES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE MID LEVELS PASS BY THE REGION.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S., NICE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, WITH THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER IN CANADA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
At the risk of awakening the conspiracy theorists, I'm going to seriously begin considering that climate change may be significantly altering Atlantic hurricanes if we do not get a major hurricane strike the lower 48 in the next five years. However, any such claim requires careful research, and changes in the behavior in the size/strength of hurricanes is still very poorly understood without climate change thrown into the mix.


If you use storm surge / Integrated Kinetic Energy as your baseline for storm category and intensity, then Ike, Gustav, Isaac, Sandy and even Irene could all be considered "major hurricanes" under that definition.
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Bopha could become a very LARGE storm when it gains sufficient latitude. It's currently located near 4N.
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'Britain Prepares For Coldest Winter in 100 Years'

We've had the wettest summer for 100 years. Anyone would think the climate is a changin'.

Link
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Mornin' gang!

Good evening Mate!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2637
Would anyone like some lightning. 3200km of lightning across Australia right now.

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At the risk of awakening the conspiracy theorists, I'm going to seriously begin considering that climate change may be significantly altering Atlantic hurricanes if we do not get a major hurricane strike the lower 48 in the next five years. However, any such claim requires careful research, and changes in the behavior in the size/strength of hurricanes is still very poorly understood without climate change thrown into the mix.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
2??




Two what? Lows? Sure (but more likely convective feedback related to uncertainties in the evolution of the eastern Atlantic low). Two (sub)tropical cyclones? Not a chance.
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Quoting VaStormGuy:
Hey, um, guys....



Apparently someone thinks this board is full of gullible idiots. There are several things that give this away as fake right away.
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2??


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It's fake, I found it on 4chan. Glad you pointed it out though, good to see that people don't blindly believe stuff!
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


not real look at the order of the numbers


Too bad, or maybe not . . .
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 616
Good point, the numbers on the ticket are or should be in ascending order, with the powerball number on the extreme right. He shows the PB number on the right but the regular numbers are wrong. Nice try!
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Quoting VaStormGuy:
Hey, um, guys....



not real look at the order of the numbers
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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