Nineteen Atlantic tropical storms 3 consecutive years: a very rare event

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 PM GMT on November 28, 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season closes this Friday with another top-five tally for named storms--nineteen. This is the third consecutive year with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic, which is a remarkable level of activity for a three-year period. The closest comparable three-year period of activity occurred during 2003 - 2004 - 2005, when each season had fifteen-plus named storms. Since 1851, only two seasons--2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (20 named storms)--have been busier than 2010, 2011, and 2012.


Figure 1. Preliminary tracks of the nineteen named storms from 2012. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

How rare are 3 consecutive top-five hurricane seasons for named storms?
It is tremendously rare to get three consecutive top-five years in a database with a 162-year record. This would occur randomly just once every 34,000 years--assuming the database were unbiased, the climate were not changing, and a multi-year climate pattern favorable for active seasons were not present. However the database IS biased, the climate IS changing, and we have been in an active hurricane period that began in 1995. So, which of these factors may be responsible for recording three consecutive years with nineteen named storms? It is well-known that prior to the arrival of geostationary satellites in December 1966 and aircraft hurricane reconnaissance in 1945 that tropical storms in the Atlantic were under-counted. Landsea et al. (2004) theorized that we missed up to six named storms per year between 1851 - 1885, and up to four between 1886 - 1910. Landsea (2007) estimated the under-count to be 3.2 named storms per year between 1900 - 1965, and 1.0 per year between 1966 - 2002. Other studies have argued for lower under-counts. So, if we assume the highest under-counts estimated by Landsea et al. (2004) and Landsea (2007), here would be the top ten busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1851:

2005: 28
1887: 25
1933: 23
1995: 20
2012, 2011, 2010, 1969, 1936: 19

So, 2012, 2011, and 2010 would still rank as top-five busiest seasons since 1851, but the odds of having three consecutive seasons with nineteen named storms would drop from a 1-in-34,000 year event to "only" a 1-in-5800 year event. More recently, Landsea et al. (2010) showed that the increasing trend in North Atlantic tropical storm frequency over the past 140 years was largely due to the increasing trend in short‐lived storms (storms lasting 2 days or less, called “shorties”), after the 1940s (Figure 2, top). They did not detect a significant increasing trend in medium‐ to long‐lived storms lasting more than 2 days. They wrote that “while it is possible that the recorded increase in short‐duration TCs [tropical cyclones] represents a real climate signal, we consider it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of the observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques.” Villarini et al. (2011), in a paper titled, "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", agreed. They attempted to correlate increases in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures in recent decades to the increase in short-lived Atlantic tropical storms, and were unable to do so. They wrote: using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century‐scale record of short‐lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long‐term secular increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days. So, let's do that. If we look during the past three hurricane seasons at how many "shorties" were observed, we see that a large number that stayed at tropical storm strength for two days or less: six storms in 2010, six in 2011, and seven in 2012. This leaves the hurricane seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012 with twelve to thirteen tropical storms that lasted more than two days. This doesn't stand out that much when looking at trends since 1878 (Figure 2, bottom); there are now 25 years in the 135-year record with twelve or more long-lived tropical cyclones. However, there are no previous occurrences of three consecutive years with at least twelve long-lived tropical storms, so 2010, 2011, and 2012 still represent an unprecedented level of tropical storm activity in the historical record, and we would expect such an event to occur randomly about once every 157 years. That's a pretty rare event, and it is possible that climate change, combined with the fact we are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, contributed to this rare event.


Figure 2. Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1878 - 2012 that spent two days or less at tropical storm strength (top) and more than two days at tropical storm strength or hurricane strength (bottom.) Figure updated from Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493.

References
Landsea, C. W., C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Dunion, J. Fernandez‐Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer (2004), "The Atlantic hurricane database re‐analysis project: Documentation for 1851–1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database," in Hurricanes and Typhoons ‐ Past, Present, and Future, edited by R. J. Murnane and K. B. Liu, pp. 178–221, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.

Landsea, C. W., (2007), "Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900," Eos, 88(18), 197-202.

Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith (2011), "Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?", J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10114, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493

Jeff Masters

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425. txjac
Just sitting around at lunch time today ...taking link to link from the pages ...and stumbled across this one ...who would have thought evil Walmart would have a page like this - concerning recyling and what it is doing to conserve water ...pleased to see this

Link
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST THU NOV 29 2012

PRC023-079-093-121-125-292200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0451.121129T1855Z-121129T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LAJAS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO PR-
255 PM AST THU NOV 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LAJAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN AND CABO ROJO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 255 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAPID RIVER RISES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 600 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1807 6715 1815 6697 1798 6698 1797 6717

$$

CASTRO
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Quoting NttyGrtty:


I have the standard tank and leach field. About 6 years ago, we got a new water main line. They pretty much tore up the front yards on my side of the street putting it in. Neighbors on the other side of the street were chuckling until they realized that when sewer does come, it won't be next to the water line, it'll be in their front yard. We'll get both, it's just a matter of time. There's too much money to be made by THE gas company and THE county sewer system...


The cost of bringing the sewer, water and gas piping to us in the countryside would be prohibitive. We aren't interested in communal water anyway because it tastes terrible. Our wells produce hard, but clear and safe drinking water without any chemical additions.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 613
421. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:


not to be pedantic, but while geologists may call the past few million years an 'ice age', 6000 years ago we were smack in the middle of an interglacial. 12000 years ago we had just come out of the previous glacial period, tho at that point the climatic optimum wasn't for a few thousand years.

of course, at this point, it looks like we've pretty much ended the ice age cycle, so who knows what happens next.


temps often rise after that happens...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1993
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Well, of course. That was the ice age.


not to be pedantic, but while geologists may call the past few million years an 'ice age', 6000 years ago we were smack in the middle of an interglacial. 12000 years ago we had just come out of the previous glacial period, tho at that point the climatic optimum wasn't for a few thousand years.

of course, at this point, it looks like we've pretty much ended the ice age cycle, so who knows what happens next.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
These Rainbow colored lasers are for the one month anniversary of Hurricane Sandy and shine towards some of the hardest hit areas:





Wow!
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
These Rainbow colored lasers are for the one month anniversary of Hurricane Sandy and shine towards some of the hardest hit areas:





Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9453
Quoting Bielle:


We have neither and are unlikely ever to have that change. For sewage, we use a moss-based filtering system (Eco flo)that requires no leaching field and no pump outs even from the settling tanks (or not in the 8 years we have been running the system). The moss filters get replaced every 7 to 10 years. Ours have not yet needed replacement.


I have the standard tank and leach field. About 6 years ago, we got a new water main line. They pretty much tore up the front yards on my side of the street putting it in. Neighbors on the other side of the street were chuckling until they realized that when sewer does come, it won't be next to the water line, it'll be in their front yard. We'll get both, it's just a matter of time. There's too much money to be made by THE gas company and THE county sewer system...
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Florida was not completely under water 6000 years ago.. it was in fact significantly larger.



Our coral reef is the third largest in the world, and its awesome...WIKI..Three dimensional map of the Florida Keys showing coral reefs in red.The Florida Reef (also known as the Great Florida Reef, Florida reefs, Florida Reef Tract and Florida Keys Reef Tract) is the only living coral barrier reef in the continental United States. It is the third largest coral barrier reef system in the world (after the Great Barrier Reef and Belize Barrier Reef).It lies a few miles seaward of the Florida Keys, is about 4 miles (6 to 7 km) wide and extends (along the 20 meter depth contour) 270 km (170 mi) from Fowey Rocks just east of Soldier Key to just south of the Marquesas Keys. The barrier reef tract forms a great arc, concentric with the Florida Keys, with the northern end, in Biscayne National Park, oriented north-south and the western end, south of the Marquesas Keys, oriented east-west. The rest of the reef outside Biscayne National Park lies within John Pennekamp Coral Reef State Park and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. Isolated coral patch reefs occur northward from Biscayne National Park as far as Stuart, in Martin County. Coral reefs are also found in Dry Tortugas National Park west of the Marquesas Keys. There are more than 6,000 individual reefs in the system. The reefs are 5,000 to 7,000 years old, having developed since sea levels rose following the Wisconsinan glaciation.

The densest and most spectacular reefs are found to the seaward of Key Largo (in and beyond John Pennekamp Coral Reef State Park) and Elliott Key where the two long keys help protect the reefs from the effects of water exchange with Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay, Card Sound and Barnes Sound. The bays and sounds (all between the Florida Keys and the mainland) tend to have lower salinity, higher turbidity and wider temperature variations than the water in the open ocean. Channels between the Keys allow water from the bays to flow onto the reefs (especially in the middle Keys), limiting their growth.The Florida Reef consists of two ridges separated from the Florida Keys by the Hawk Channel. Closest to the Keys is a sand ridge called White Bank, covered by large beds of sea grass, with patch reefs scattered across it. Further out to sea on the edge of the Florida Straits is the second ridge forming the outer reefs, covered by reefs and hard banks composed of coral rubble and sand.

Almost 1,400 species of marine plants and animals, including more than 40 species of stony corals and 500 species of fish, live on the Florida Reef. The Florida Reef lies close to the northern limit for tropical corals, but the species diversity on the reef is comparable to that of reef systems in the Caribbean Sea.
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415. yoboi
Quoting txjac:
I'm not sure if this has been posted or not but I found it to be interesting (not trying to cause trouble as I preach save the planet) but this comes from a Princeton university study. Is this a believable study?

Courtesy of "The Register"
Link

The study concerns the polar ice and Greenland ice



yeah they are well respected...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1993

Quoting VR46L:


Its actually an interesting question you posed , My house is all CFL bulbs but I am concerned about breakages of these bulbs as mercury is a poison .Here is the advice on cleaning up after a breakage from the EPA

What to Do if a CFL Breaks
Yes, it is a problem. At first I bought them. The light I had did not have a good connection. On it blowing, try and take it out and it broke. No, did not go out of the house, animals are inside, 2 dogs, 3 cats. I just dealt with it, but not again. We need something that is more eco friendly than what we are being sold and told. Thanks for the info. Already aware, hope others see your post!
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
NWSBayArea‏@NWSBayArea

Timing of the heavy rain forecast to impact the area tonight and Friday. http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=39335435740 6593&set=a.128008810607817.30966.121579457917419&t ype=1&theater #bayarearain #sfweather #heavyrain
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412. VR46L
Quoting JustPlantIt:

And who recycles a broken bulb? And If questioned, I would doubt most people even are even aware of the merc. in those bulbs to be resposible enough to recycle. As for coal, live in a small community where that is a primary heat source here in PA. That merc goes straight to a landfill or the ocean. I'll keep my oil lamps and coal.


Its actually an interesting question you posed , My house is all CFL bulbs but I am concerned about breakages of these bulbs as mercury is a poison .Here is the advice on cleaning up after a breakage from the EPA

What to Do if a CFL Breaks
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Quoting goosegirl1:


We have a standard septic tank with a gravel leach field, as there is also no sewer service out here in the wilds. I looked into a composting system for our new place, but the local health department won't approve it. At least it's better that the old two- seater my parents grew up with :)


Ours was one of the first ones approved. The company claims the end-result water is safe to drink; the health department allows it to go straight into public ditches, and there has been no residue or smell associated with it. It is all inspected annually - a health-department requirement. The installers have to post a large bond to be held by the municipality for 25 years.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 613
410. txjac
I'm not sure if this has been posted or not but I found it to be interesting (not trying to cause trouble as I preach save the planet) but this comes from a Princeton university study. Is this a believable study?

Courtesy of "The Register"
Link

The study concerns the polar ice and Greenland ice
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Any sign of weather pattern will change in the next month or 2? All the Cold Air is staying In Canada because the Storm Track is so far north, no rain here in 2 months and we have had lots of 70s and 80s. I wore my shorts on Thanksgiving, looking like I could be wearing them on Christmas too, LOL. As long as the Storm Track stays so far North the South will not be getting much rain or winter is what I am hearing, at least here in South Central Texas where it has been mostly clear and very dry since end of September. I give up on rain but I hope it isn't in the 80s on Christmas.


You might be in luck by the second week of December(at least for cold weather). That Omega Block over the Bering Straight since the week of Thanksgiving is showing some good signs of weakening and/or retrogressing westward into Siberia.

That should also bring the GOA Vortex along with it towards the Aleutians. This should enable the tropical forcings(MJO) to finally work their magic(especially with a weak west-based El Nino).
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Quoting Bielle:
We have neither and are unlikely ever to have that change. For sewage, we use a moss-based filtering system that requires no leaching field and no pump outs even from the settling tanks (or not in the 8 years we have been running the system). The moss filters get replaced every 7 to 10 years. Ours have not yet needed replacement.


We have a standard septic tank with a gravel leach field, as there is also no sewer service out here in the wilds. I looked into a composting system for our new place, but the local health department won't approve it. At least it's better that the old two- seater my parents grew up with :)
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes, they do. Perhaps better stated, they have "contained" mercury. This is easily collected and recycled. Mercury from the use of coal goes straight out into the environment and is not contained. .... Which do you prefer?
And who recycles a broken bulb? And If questioned, I would doubt most people even are even aware of the merc. in those bulbs to be resposible enough to recycle. As for coal, live in a small community where that is a primary heat source here in PA. That merc goes straight to a landfill or the ocean. I'll keep my oil lamps and coal. And yes... do my part and have a woodstove.
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
Quoting NttyGrtty:


It's all around where I live but has not made it into our subdivision. Sewer hasn't arrived either so for now, it's propane and septic tanks...


We have neither and are unlikely ever to have that change. For sewage, we use a moss-based filtering system (Eco flo)that requires no leaching field and no pump outs even from the settling tanks (or not in the 8 years we have been running the system). The moss filters get replaced every 7 to 10 years. Ours have not yet needed replacement.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 613
Quoting NttyGrtty:


It's all around where I live but has not made it into our subdivision. Sewer hasn't arrived either so for now, it's propane and septic tanks...


Throw in some beers and brats and you have yourself a tailgate party :)
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Florida was not completely under water 6000 years ago.. it was in fact significantly larger.





Well, of course. That was the ice age.
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Quoting yoboi:


you don't have natural gas where you live?



It's around, but there is no infrastructure to bring it out where I live. I live on a very rural area, and will be moving even further off the grid next year.
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.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 613
Quoting captainktainer:


I had misremembered; MBH '99 only went back a thousand years, not two thousand. His 2008 paper went back 1300. I hadn't seen the Huang et al. paper that extended the borehole record showing that it hasn't been warmer since around 6,000 years ago, when Florida was completely underwater.


Florida was not completely under water 6000 years ago.. it was in fact significantly larger.



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Laura Skirde‏@LauraSkirdeWx

Winter Storm Warning in the Sierra tonight through tomorrow night above 7000' - snowy & windy! @CBSSacramento #cawx http://twitter.com/LauraSkirdeWx/status/2742200783 69746945/photo/1

1 minLaura Skirde‏@LauraSkirdeWx

Flood Watch tonight through Sunday, lot of rain moving in! @CBSSacramento #cawx #sacwx http://twitter.com/LauraSkirdeWx/status/2742198206 71717377/photo/1

2 minLaura Skirde‏@LauraSkirdeWx

Wind Advisory tonight through Sunday night, getting gusty again! @CBSSacramento#cawx #sacwx http://twitter.com/LauraSkirdeWx/status/2742197205 41106176/photo/1
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Quoting Bielle:


There is frequently no natural-gas service in rural areas. We have no access.


It's all around where I live but has not made it into our subdivision. Sewer hasn't arrived either so for now, it's propane and septic tanks...
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Quoting JustPlantIt:

AND the lightbulbs contain Mercury!


Yes, they do. Perhaps better stated, they have "contained" mercury. This is easily collected and recycled. Mercury from the use of coal goes straight out into the environment and is not contained. .... Which do you prefer?
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AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Rounds of strong winds & rough seas batter the West Coast into next week, threatening power outages.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/west-co ast-storms-power-outage/2132531
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Quoting yoboi:


you don't have natural gas where you live?


There is frequently no natural-gas service in rural areas. We have no access.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 613
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Any sign of weather pattern will change in the next month or 2? All the Cold Air is staying In Canada because the Storm Track is so far north, no rain here in 2 months and we have had lots of 70s and 80s. . . .


It is pretty chilly up here in southern Ontario, that is true. Our one-acre, spring-fed pond was surface frozen this morning, clear and thin as crystal. About noon, the air had warmed it to the point that the currently slight winds are ruffling it into ridges centering around the springs.

There is almost no snow on the ground except deep in the shadows of the surrounding woods. We have had two snowfalls, but both were followed by sunshine and warmer temperatures.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 613
394. yoboi
Quoting goosegirl1:


Ok, that sounds reasonable.

We heat with propane, which is one of the cleanest fuels. Natural gas burns cleaner but is not available where we live.

I drive a fuel efficient car (35 mph).

I practice efficiency at home. Lights are always off in rooms not in use, tv is not on all night, no one has a bedroom tv that could be left on.

All appliances are as fuel efficient as I can find and purchase.

Next year, we plan to move and build a new home. We will have a heat pump for heating and cooling, although it is cold enough here that we may need a propane back-up.

I will be moving closer to work at that time.

All lights will be fuel conserving led or fluorescent.

It' s a good start.


you don't have natural gas where you live?
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1993
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Many scientists wish it were that simple, but unfortunately we seem to be stuck in the basic science literacy step with little progress toward the "how to act on the conclusions of scientists" step.


Made me laugh out loud...
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Quoting captainktainer:


I really, really have to run, but I just had to share how utterly stupefied I am that the last time it was warmer than this, virtually all of the Florida Peninsula was literally a gigantic coral reef because of how high sea levels were. I mean, we can joke all we want about Florida, but much more warming than we've already experienced would be literally catastrophic. Anyone in the United States at least has a vested interest in not spending the literally trillions of dollars that would be necessary to relocate and employ the people who would be displaced by rising sea levels. And yet we still find people who are quibbling over whether it's a fascist infringement on freedom to mandate new energy standards for lightbulbs. It's... bizarre. And, as I said, stupefying.
AND the lightbulbs contain Mercury!
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 29 Nov 2012 06:00 to Fri 30 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 29 Nov 2012 06:41
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for the southern Balkans and the Aegean Sea region mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

At the edge of low geopotenial across northern Europe, an intense Mediterranean trough moves north-eastward into eastern Europe today. A very strong jet streak will travel across the Balkans ahead of this trough and a tongue of warm air advects into the Black Sea region. In the wake of the jet streak, colder air masses will be present over most of the Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

Southern Balkans, Greece, Aegean Sea region

While the main trough travels north-eastward into eastern Europe, the region is affected by a south-westerly flow. A cold front will move across the southern Balkans/Greece today and becomes quasi-stationary. Ahead of this cold front, a tongue of warm air advects northward. Especially near the Mediterranean Sea, this air mass is associated with rich low-level moisture. Additionally, latest models indicate that rather steep lapse rates are present, leading to CAPE. Strong forcing is expeced along the cold front and convective activity will go on. Backbuilding MCS and training storms are forecast to be capable of producing excessive rain as the main theat. Additionally, strong low-level vertical wind shear near the coasts may allow for embedded mesocyclones, and a tornado or hail event is not ruled out.


http://www.estofex.org/
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Quoting captainktainer:


I had misremembered; MBH '99 only went back a thousand years, not two thousand. His 2008 paper went back 1300. I hadn't seen the Huang et al. paper that extended the borehole record showing that it hasn't been warmer since around 6,000 years ago, when Florida was completely underwater.


I really, really have to run, but I just had to share how utterly stupefied I am that the last time it was warmer than this, virtually all of the Florida Peninsula was literally a gigantic coral reef because of how high sea levels were. I mean, we can joke all we want about Florida, but much more warming than we've already experienced would be literally catastrophic. Anyone in the United States at least has a vested interest in not spending the literally trillions of dollars that would be necessary to relocate and employ the people who would be displaced by rising sea levels. And yet we still find people who are quibbling over whether it's a fascist infringement on freedom to mandate new energy standards for lightbulbs. It's... bizarre. And, as I said, stupefying.
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Quoting yoboi:



more people should post ideas how to fix things and do them instead of posting graphs and charts and quit crying about who says what...


The first step in fixing a problem is coming to a consensus on the nature and extent of the it, which can only be done by analyzing charts and graphs. I know they are boring for some people, but they are the most effective method for presenting the data.

There is no reason why we cannot study the problem while also discussing solutions. If you want the conversation to turn towards solutions then, by all means, set a good example for others to follow by posting something informative.

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting yoboi:



more people should post ideas how to fix things and do them instead of posting graphs and charts and quit crying about who says what...


Ok, that sounds reasonable.

We heat with propane, which is one of the cleanest fuels. Natural gas burns cleaner but is not available where we live.

I drive a fuel efficient car (35 mph).

I practice efficiency at home. Lights are always off in rooms not in use, tv is not on all night, no one has a bedroom tv that could be left on.

All appliances are as fuel efficient as I can find and purchase.

Next year, we plan to move and build a new home. We will have a heat pump for heating and cooling, although it is cold enough here that we may need a propane back-up.

I will be moving closer to work at that time.

All lights will be fuel conserving led or fluorescent.

It' s a good start.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

It's been confirmed by numerous independent studies, and his methods have been affirmed many times, most notably by the National Academy of Science.

The error bars on global temperature estimtes of 1000 years ago are much much larger than error bars on global temperature estimates today. Temperatures today are reaching a point where they are exceeding even the far reaches of the warm side error bars in a majority of data sets estimating the last 2000 years.


I had misremembered; MBH '99 only went back a thousand years, not two thousand. His 2008 paper went back 1300. I hadn't seen the Huang et al. paper that extended the borehole record showing that it hasn't been warmer since around 6,000 years ago, when Florida was completely underwater.
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Hurricane center pushes to improve storm surge warnings


Excerpt:


Starting with a meeting next week, the forecasters will review their warning systems and speed up development of a separate warning system for storm surge in hopes of having an experimental version ready to test in the next couple of years, Knabb said.

It will include a high-resolution graphic showing how high the surge would grow and how far inland it would reach at various times. Storm surge rarely correlates neatly with wind strength, Knabb said.

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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Any sign of weather pattern will change in the next month or 2? All the Cold Air is staying In Canada because the Storm Track is so far north, no rain here in 2 months and we have had lots of 70s and 80s. I wore my shorts on Thanksgiving, looking like I could be wearing them on Christmas too, LOL. As long as the Storm Track stays so far North the South will not be getting much rain or winter is what I am hearing, at least here in South Central Texas where it has been mostly clear and very dry since end of September. I give up on rain but I hope it isnt in the 80s on Christmas.


Models have been consistently breaking down the blocking pattern in the medium range time frame... maybe mid December. Certainly rooting for it here as that is about the time that we near some critical low stages on the big river. I can't imagine that cold staying bottled up there forever...
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2876
Quoting percylives:


I think you're being facetious but if one balances the good from fossil fuel products against their costs to the environment, IMO, computers and other electronic communication devices would come out near the top in efficiency.

I'd love to see the numbers though so if anyone has them, please share.


I don't really have time to do a full literature review - I have to go teach - but from a consumer research perspective this has a decent overview; it's a literature review of the most widely-cited articles on the topic. Basically, computers are overall a very significant net benefit; that doesn't even address the net economic benefits from them that improve our overall prosperity, which improves our access to resources that help further decrease emissions.
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Quoting captainktainer:


As a followup to this for those who didn't know, Michael Mann's "infamous" "hockey stick" graph was produced precisely by determining the statistical relationships between different climate data sets to reconstruct the possible range of temperatures for Earth's history going back around two thousand years. He already did exactly what the deniers here are asking about, and he gets pilloried in the press for daring to report that modern global temperatures exceed the maximum possible global temperatures for the last two thousand years. Nevermind that his procedure was statistically conservative and his results independently verified by his peers - it doesn't fit the narrative, so it's claimed to be "discredited."

It's been confirmed by numerous independent studies, and his methods have been affirmed many times, most notably by the National Academy of Science.

The error bars on global temperature estimtes of 1000 years ago are much much larger than error bars on global temperature estimates today. Temperatures today are reaching a point where they are exceeding even the far reaches of the warm side error bars in a majority of data sets estimating the last 2000 years.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2876
??? Other than USGS, any other source for earthquake info? It would seem that these past couple of weeks that the majority of quakes are about the same latitude. Also wonder if anyone else has noticed this?
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
Any sign of weather pattern will change in the next month or 2? All the Cold Air is staying In Canada because the Storm Track is so far north, no rain here in 2 months and we have had lots of 70s and 80s. I wore my shorts on Thanksgiving, looking like I could be wearing them on Christmas too, LOL. As long as the Storm Track stays so far North the South will not be getting much rain or winter is what I am hearing, at least here in South Central Texas where it has been mostly clear and very dry since end of September. I give up on rain but I hope it isnt in the 80s on Christmas.
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Quoting yoboi:



does anyone have a plan with how to fix things??? when do you transition from charts and graphs to fixing the problem???


JMO, but a fossil fuel carbon tax collected at the fossil fuel source mated with a fossil fuel carbon dividend split up among all the citizens of the US who register for it. That combination would penalize those who used the most fossil fuels and reward those who used the least. Everyone would endeavor to avoid the first group and try to be in the second group.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

There is a heirarchy to which data is used for analyses. Data with the least bias and the smallest error bars are typically chosen first, followed by data that progressively gets more and more uncertain. Although not showing the exact same thing, satellite-derived temperature estimates are considered among the best data sets available for studying global climate, and they show the same rate of warming to the other temperature data sets since the late 1970s.

If one were to claim that the modern warming period's start in the 1970s was not coincidental to the introduction of satellite-derived data, that wouldn't imply that the satellites were biased toward more warming?


As a followup to this for those who didn't know, Michael Mann's "infamous" "hockey stick" graph was produced precisely by determining the statistical relationships between different climate data sets to reconstruct the possible range of temperatures for Earth's history going back around two thousand years. He already did exactly what the deniers here are asking about, and he gets pilloried in the press for daring to report that modern global temperatures exceed the maximum possible global temperatures for the last two thousand years. Nevermind that his procedure was statistically conservative and his results independently verified by his peers - it doesn't fit the narrative, so it's claimed to be "discredited."

I bought his book on Dr. Master's recommendation and read through it. Large parts are densely packed with statistics that a layman just wouldn't be likely to comprehend - I myself skimmed through a lot of it - but for those with a scientific or mathematical background it really illuminates a lot about how climate science has been done for the last fifty years or so.
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Quoting yoboi:



more people should post ideas how to fix things and do them instead of posting graphs and charts and quit crying about who says what...


Many scientists wish it were that simple, but unfortunately we seem to be stuck in the basic science literacy step with little progress toward the "how to act on the conclusions of scientists" step.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 2876
Quoting Progster:


Is that a jet flying into smoke? You can see the reason modern jets have wing-tip winglets. An enormous amount of energy goes into the wind tip vorticies. Anything to reduce those and instead increase the energy going into lift saves fuel.


Either that, or it's one of the nastiest twin downbursts I've seen recorded... Yikes!
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375. yoboi
Quoting MrMixon:


I should start a business where I do google searches for other people (apparently there's a market):

Possible solutions for climate change <- click this link for a quick google search which answers your question

There's no guarantee the ideas in those links will work... but that's not what you asked. You just asked if anyone has a plan. The answer is once again a dramatically unsurprising: "yes."



more people should post ideas how to fix things and do them instead of posting graphs and charts and quit crying about who says what...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 1993

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.