Damaging Katrina-level storm surges are twice as likely in warm years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:22 PM GMT on November 26, 2012

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Perhaps the most stunning images in the wake of Hurricane Sandy were the sight of the roller coaster from the Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, New Jersey lying in the Atlantic Ocean. The images reminded us that hurricane storm surges are capable of causing tremendous destruction along the coast, and one of the main concerns on how global warming might affect hurricanes is the potential for stronger hurricanes to create larger storm surges. We expect that global warming should make the strongest hurricanes stronger, since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the ocean and converts it to wind energy. These stronger winds will be capable of piling up higher storm surges. However, it is controversial whether or not we have observed an increase in the strongest hurricanes, since hurricane winds are hard to observe. Our long-term hurricane data base is generally too low in quality and covers too short a period of time to make very good estimates of how climate change may be affecting hurricane winds. However, a new 2012 paper, "Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923" by Grinsted et al., looked at storm surge data from six tide gauges along the U.S. coast from Texas to New Jersey, and concluded that the number of moderately large hurricane and tropical storm surge events has increased since 1923. Moderately large storm surge events are on pace to nearly double by the year 2100, compared to 20th century levels. Moreover, 1-in-9 year to 1-in-30 year Katrina-level storm surge events are twice as likely to occur in warm years compared to cool years, and thus global warming may be able to dramatically increase the frequency of highly damaging extreme storm surge events. Since sea level is steadily rising due to global warming, these future storm surges will also be riding in on top of an elevated ocean surface, and will thus be able to do even greater damage than in the past. Expect to see many more shocking storm surge damage photos in the coming decades, unless we wise up, retreat from areas highly vulnerable to storm surge, and invest in increased shoreline protection measures.


Figure 1. The Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, N.J. taken during a search and rescue mission by 1-150 Assault Helicopter Battalion, New Jersey Army National Guard on Oct. 30, 2012. Image credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen.


Figure 2. Top: Observed long-term frequency of moderately large storm surge events from hurricanes and tropical storms measured at six tide gauges along the U.S. East Coast (inset map). The thick line is a 5-year moving average. These type of surge events occurred an average of 5.4 times/year between 1923 - 2008, and are on pace to increase to 9.5 events per year by 2100. Bottom: Departure of Earth's annual mean surface temperature from average, shaded to show warmer and colder than median temperatures. Large storm surge events increase in probability during warmer than average years. Image credit: Grinsted et al. 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923."

Using storm surge to evaluate damage normalization studies
Damage from landfalling storms can be used to estimate if hurricanes are growing stronger with time, but damage estimates must first be corrected to account for changes in wealth and population over time. A 2008 study by Pielke et al. found that although hurricane damages had been doubling every ten years in recent decades, there were no increases in normalized hurricane damages in the U.S. from 1900 - 2005. They used census and economic data to adjust for how increases in populations and wealth may have affected hurricane damages over time. However, Grinsted et al. (2012) questioned whether or not this was done correctly. They found that storm surge heights of U.S. hurricanes and tropical storms correlated very well with metrics that looked at storm intensity, when looking at many decades of data to see long-term trends. However, the researchers found that while short-term trends in normalized hurricane damage estimated by Pielke et al. (2008) did correlate well historical storm surges, these normalized damages had poor correlation with the storm surge record, when looking at decades-long time scales. This implies that the corrections were biased. Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Western Australia makes the case that efforts such as the one done by Pielke et al. (2008) to normalize disaster losses are probably biased too low, since they only look at factors that tend to increase disaster losses with time, but ignore factors that tend to decrease disaster losses. These ignored factors include improvements in building codes, better weather forecasts allowing more preparation time, and improved fire-fighting ability. He writes, "Most normalization research to date has not accounted for those variables because they are extremely difficult to quantify. (And most researchers have been at pains to point that out; e.g., Neumayer & Barthel, 2011, pp. 23-24.) In effect, normalization research to date largely rests on the oddly inconsistent pair of assumptions that (a) we have built up enormous wealth during the 20th century but (b) did so without any technological advance whatsoever." Grinsted et al. (2012) suggest that it may be possible to use their storm surge data to correct biased hurricane damage estimates, though. Take home message: studies showing no increase in normalized damage from storms have high uncertainty, and it is possible that higher economic damages due to stronger hurricanes are indeed occurring.

References
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109

Pielke et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005", Natural Hazards Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42.

Links
In this remarkable home video, 15-year-old Christofer Sochacki captures the evening high tide on the day Superstorm Sandy struck Union Beach, New Jersey. The later part of the video shows how high waves on top of a 8-foot storm surge can lead to a punishing assault on beach-front structures.

Jeff Masters

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479. yoboi
Quoting goosegirl1:



Seems a little misleading, considering none of the name-calling scientists are likely to be in on this particular discussion.



i said the point i was making......several times...cherry pick all ya want....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 2011
back to what was discussed earlier, do you have any of that peer-reviewed science showing the real temperature rise over the last 100 years?

Quoting TomballTXPride:



I agree. I've been referred to a troll multiple times on here, and even much worse. If you see this kind of behavior on a public forum, you could only imagine what my private email on this website looks like. LOL. And the insults aren't just from those of whom disagree with me in regards to global warming either. Some folks just like to hide behind a handle and take cheap shots.

FWIW...Experience has shown me that those that have to resort to snide remarks and name calling usually are without a sufficient counter-argument to keep the discussion flowing.

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 583
Quoting indianrivguy:


this is so old, and rendered worthless for so long it is embarrassing to see you trying to use it as "evidence"

Quoting indianrivguy:


hmmm, then I must say, it was a poorly made point sir. It is very hard to derive that point from what you posted. Thanks for clearing that up.


Seems a little misleading, considering none of the name-calling scientists are likely to be in on this particular discussion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OK.... trolls are great! Played with them as a kid. Lost most of my favorite orange topped trolls to a hurricane named 'Agnes'. Ah, had a gorgeous home for them made out of sticks/sand and stones. I could've been an Architect for kids playing next to a crick! Crayfish, the occasional 'small' watersnake and the little pool with live minnows. I always believed as told, that the troll was the keeper of water and that the bridge was its shelter. Pay the price to cross as the troll would keep the bridge:) I was also told that the Unicorn was the only mythological creature allowed to cross over it! AND... Stick and stones can brake bones, but names can never hurt. I have a new want for Christmas... MY TROLLS. Forgot about them till now!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks for stirring up old, great memories of childhood.
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Quoting bappit:

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the ! button and ignored."


I am so sorry .I didn't mean to break any rules .
Member Since: May 30, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
Quoting lightinthedark:


I just am a casual observer , don't blog much, as I don't believe I have a lot to offer . But I hate seeing folk being called names and find it very immature and nasty and thought I would speak up for a change . I am really surprised that people are allowed ,to call people trolls as its an insult.

"When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the ! button and ignored."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5563
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Adding another layer, literally, to the GW debate (which I stay out of on the Blog). News report on issues regarding permafrost melt and the impact on GW from the news today. Here is a sample and the link:

"Permafrost has begun to thaw," lead author Kevin Schaefer, a researcher at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado-Boulder, told a news conference in Doha.

"Permafrost emissions could ultimately account for up to 39 percent of total (greenhouse gas) emissions," he warned. "This must be factored into treaty negotiations ... or we risk overshooting the 2 degrees Celsius maximum warming target."



Link



There's another elephant in the room, reduced uptake of CO2 by a warmer ocean, with the ocean eventually becoming a net source of CO2. I don't think that's factored in either.

Here's a cut & paste of a little Internet research I did a few years ago.

The solubility of CO2 in water is dependent on two main factors, temperature and the amount of CO2 already dissolved in it. Cold water absorbs CO2 from the air more readily than warm water, but cold water that already has a lot of CO2 dissolved in it doesn't take it up as readily as cold water with relatively low amounts of dissolved CO2.

Most of the absorption takes place in the colder regions of the ocean, while the warmer tropical ocean outgasses CO2. Up until recently, this has resulted in about half of man made CO2 emissions being absorbed with the other half (about 1.5 ppm) remaining in the atmosphere, but this is beginning to change.

Below is a table going back to 1980. The first column is the global sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly for that year (positive since 1977). The second column is the amount by which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased in that year. There's a close match between the size of the anomaly and the amount of extra CO2. Of particular interest is the 'rebound' effect. If you get a particularly warm year followed by a particularly cool year, more CO2 than usual gets absorbed because the water is not only relatively cool, but also has a relatively low concentration of CO2 due to the previous year having been warm. Obviously, the opposite is true. A particularly cool year followed by a particularly warm year usually results in a surge in annual CO2 levels. The correlation is quite rough, but definite, nonetheless.

This rebound effect is most noticeable when two cool years are followed by a warm year or two warm years are followed by a cool year. For example, the relatively cool years of '81 and '82 were followed by a rebound in '83 which saw the highest annual CO2 rise recorded until then. This was followed by three relatively cool years, then the warm year of '87 saw the record broken with an extra 2.3 ppm of CO2 being added to the atmosphere. The two warm years of '90 and '91, were followed by a cool year when only 0.49 ppm of CO2 was added to the atmosphere. The warmest SST year on record coincided with the record EL Nino of 1998. That year saw a record 2.93 ppm of CO2 being added to the atmosphere, equivalent to almost all the CO2 produced by man in that year.


1979 0.115C 1.16 ppm
1980 0.106C 1.84 ppm
1981 0.083C 1.41 ppm
1982 0.085C 0.71 ppm
1983 0.180C 2.18 ppm
1984 0.068C 1.39 ppm
1985 0.024C 1.23 ppm
1986 0.066C 1.51 ppm
1987 0.223C 2.30 ppm
1988 0.202C 2.14 ppm
1989 0.148C 1.24 ppm
1990 0.248C 1.32 ppm
1991 0.219C 1.00 ppm
1992 0.121C 0.49 ppm
1993 0.129C 1.26 ppm
1994 0.187C 1.96 ppm
1995 0.257C 1.98 ppm
1996 0.188C 1.19 ppm
1997 0.362C 1.93 ppm
1998 0.474C 2.93 ppm
1999 0.258C 1.35 ppm
2000 0.278C 1.24 ppm
2001 0.382C 1.85 ppm
2002 0.410C 2.39 ppm
2003 0.445C 2.21 ppm
2004 0.434C 1.61 ppm
2005 0.424C 2.41 ppm
2006 0.347C 1.79 ppm

I don't have SST figures for the last two years, but atmospheric CO2 increased by 2.17 ppm in 2007 and 2.28 ppm in 2008. It's clear the rate of warming has increased a lot in the past ten years and the amount of CO2 that stays in the atmosphere has also increased significantly. The strong 'rebound' correlations leave me in little doubt where the atmospheric CO2 surge is coming from and it isn't China.

Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2445
471. yoboi
Quoting indianrivguy:


hmmm, then I must say, it was a poorly made point sir. It is very hard to derive that point from what you posted. Thanks for clearing that up.


thanks i should have put that part in bold my mistake....just see a lot of name calling going on....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 2011
Adding another layer, literally, to the GW debate (which I stay out of on the Blog). News report on issues regarding permafrost melt and the impact on GW from the news today. Here is a sample and the link:

"Permafrost has begun to thaw," lead author Kevin Schaefer, a researcher at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado-Boulder, told a news conference in Doha.

"Permafrost emissions could ultimately account for up to 39 percent of total (greenhouse gas) emissions," he warned. "This must be factored into treaty negotiations ... or we risk overshooting the 2 degrees Celsius maximum warming target."



Link
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Quoting yoboi:


point i was making how they called skeptics idiots...like the name calling that goes on here...


hmmm, then I must say, it was a poorly made point sir. It is very hard to derive that point from what you posted. Thanks for clearing that up.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
Quoting Jedkins01:



At this rate we'll be having a dust bowl in Florida. After having a very wet rainy season, it hasn't really rained much at all since the beginning of October with no rain in sight in the extended forecast either. Ironically, after having more flooding rains this summer than I've seen in years, this is the driest I've probably ever seen things in late November here. These aren't your Grandma and Grandpa's weather patterns...


everything you want to know about rain in south Florida; Go Hydrology, rain

from that page,



Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
What some seem to be unaware of is that people on both sides can be trolling. Try self examination with honestly, and listening to others, both are very helpful. In case many haven't noticed, the majority of individuals in the Federal government apparently do very little of either in both parties. Do you want to be that way? I don't...
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Quoting TomballTXPride:



I agree. I've been referred to a troll multiple times on here, and even much worse. If you see this kind of behavior on a public forum, you could only imagine what my private email on this website looks like. LOL. And the insults aren't just from those of whom disagree with me in regards to global warming either. Some folks just like to hide behind a handle and take cheap shots.

FWIW...Experience has shown me that those that have to resort to snide remarks and name calling usually are without a sufficient counter-argument to keep the discussion flowing.



Oh that is terrible ! I am so sorry to hear that .I am totally shocked, that happens. I think I am better off being a casual viewer then.
Member Since: May 30, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
465. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
Posting a breathless headline more than three years old about a scandal that never was, that disparaged many good climate scientists while criminally delaying action on climate change action? Yeah, there's really no other way to describe that than trollish behavior of the worst kind.



point proven....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh please, you go to a regular high school. The work there isn't bad. Come talk to me when you've got three presentations, two projects, two essays, a persuasive speech, and a ton of other, smaller homework and class assignments due on Friday. :/


Come talk to me when you are taking Calculus 3, Differential equations, and Physics, as well as accelerated online courses and also a job. THEN, we can begin talking about large work loads ;)

High school was an absolute breeze compared to this stuff, and I took the honors courses for science and mathematics in high school.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Seriously yoboi!

Reposting a debunked "climate gate" article like it was new?!? Just post a sign on your name saying "I'M A CLIMATE TROLL!"
The community here is not as ignorant as your usual disinformation shovel sites.
THAT IS YEARS OLD and you post it like it is some hot topic. You are the one using "Tricks" and I don't mean a skillful way to make trends in the data clearer.
Posting a breathless headline more than three years old about a scandal that never was, that disparaged many good climate scientists while criminally delaying action on climate change action? Yeah, there's really no other way to describe that than trollish behavior of the worst kind.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13304
462. yoboi
Quoting indianrivguy:


this is so old, and rendered worthless for so long it is embarrassing to see you trying to use it as "evidence"


point i was making how they called skeptics idiots...like the name calling that goes on here...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 2011
Quoting yoboi:
Hundreds of private e-mail messages and documents hacked from a computer server at a British university are causing a stir among global warming skeptics, who say they show that climate scientists conspired to overstate the case for a human influence on climate change.

Skip to next paragraph
Related
Post a Comment on DotEarth | ReadThe e-mail messages, attributed to prominent American and British climate researchers, include discussions of scientific data and whether it should be released, exchanges about how best to combat the arguments of skeptics, and casual comments — in some cases derisive — about specific people known for their skeptical views. Drafts of scientific papers and a photo collage that portrays climate skeptics on an ice floe were also among the hacked data, some of which dates back 13 years.

In one e-mail exchange, a scientist writes of using a statistical “trick” in a chart illustrating a recent sharp warming trend. In another, a scientist refers to climate skeptics as “idiots.”

Some skeptics asserted Friday that the correspondence revealed an effort to withhold scientific information. “This is not a smoking gun; this is a mushroom cloud,” said Patrick J. Michaels, a climatologist who has long faulted evidence pointing to human-driven warming and is criticized in the documents.



this is so old, and rendered worthless for so long it is embarrassing to see you trying to use it as "evidence"
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Climate Change Threatens to Create a Second Dust Bowl

Rising temperatures, persistent drought, and depleted aquifers on the southern Great Plains could set the stage for a disaster similar to the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, scientists say

By Melissa Gaskill

A cool October broke a 16-month streak of above average temperatures across the Lower 48, but temperatures are projected to remain above normal across most of the western half of the country in the coming months. In addition, the latest climate change projections put future temperature gains on the high side of various models.

As of November 6, 59.5 percent of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing persistent drought conditions that are most severe in the Great Plains—North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Montana, Wyoming and Colorado—where drought is expected to persist or intensify in the foreseeable future. On October 17–18 those drought conditions combined with high winds to create a large dust storm across Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming, closing major highways.



At this rate we'll be having a dust bowl in Florida. After having a very wet rainy season, it hasn't really rained much at all since the beginning of October with no rain in sight in the extended forecast either. Ironically, after having more flooding rains this summer than I've seen in years, this is the driest I've probably ever seen things in late November here. These aren't your Grandma and Grandpa's weather patterns...
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Quoting yonzabam:
According to this graph, global temperatures have increased by around 1 degree C.




Very dependent on the data source, the post-processing (necessary adjustments, removal of noise, etc), the time period used, and the scope of the data. Some data sets go back into the 1800s, but with larger error bars in the data sparse time frames. Some data sets cover the globe but are much more sensitive to ocean temperature fluctuations that do not exactly correlate with increases/decreases in total heat content. I am not sure I know of a data set that maintains a continuous record of cryosphere heat content (more than just accumulation/ablation, but also the temperature of ice). Noise removal can be accomplished many different ways, the simplest is linear trend; a slightly better method might be a moving average, although even better methods are used.

As such, each data set has strengths and weakness and should be used appropriately. A side of effect of this is the ability to claim that "the 'factual' data doesn't show that" by simply choosing which record shows what you want to see and ignoring the pros/cons.

A few different measures:

According to an average of all of the global (except small portion of the poles) satellite-derived lower troposphere datasets, the warming has been about 0.5C from the late 1970s to present. *Derived from linear trend.

According to the BEST data set for land only, the warming has been about 1.0C from the late 1970s to present. *Derived from linear trend.

According to the Foster & Rahmstorm global data that removed known natural cycles/oscillations to isolate the trend, the warming has been about 0.5C from the late 1970s to present. *Derived from linear trend.

According to NASA's GIStemp global data averaged over 30 year periods (typical definition of climate), the warming has been about 0.46C from the 1950-1979 period to the 1990-2012 period. *Derived from 30yr averages.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Navy Point
On the Bayou across fron NAS.


I lived on Greve Rd. in Navy Point for about 2yrs...
Many years ago..
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457. yoboi
Quoting biff4ugo:
Seriously yoboi!

Reposting a debunked "climate gate" article like it was new?!? Just post a sign on your name saying "I'M A CLIMATE TROLL!"
The community here is not as ignorant as your usual disinformation shovel sites.
THAT IS YEARS OLD and you post it like it is some hot topic. You are the one using "Tricks" and I don't mean a skillful way to make trends in the data clearer.


the point i was making how they call skeptics idiots in the e-mail...just like people here call people names not very tactful....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 2011
Seriously yoboi!

Reposting a debunked "climate gate" article like it was new?!? Just post a sign on your name saying "I'M A CLIMATE TROLL!"
The community here is not as ignorant as your usual disinformation shovel sites.
THAT IS YEARS OLD and you post it like it is some hot topic. You are the one using "Tricks" and I don't mean a skillful way to make trends in the data clearer.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1501
Quoting goosegirl1:



Yes, they were once at least as high as the Rockies but have eroded over time. The New River runs from south to north, against prevailing geography, and so geologists believe it was formed even before the Appalachian Mountains. Heady stuff, that. We will have to ask Grothar how it happened :)
I hope he was still frosty , being at an advanced age during that time period.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Yea, I watched something about it this a.m. Friggen hard to wrap my mind around a time frame that would allow 5 miles of granite to erode away....
Granite is tough stuff...Hundreds of millions of years of weather and erosion can disintegrate just about anything.
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Quoting hydrus:
I have read about that river ...Amazing stuff...Some scientists believe the the Appalachian Mountains may have been taller than the Himalaya,s at one time.



Yes, they were once at least as high as the Rockies but have eroded over time. The New River runs from south to north, against prevailing geography, and so geologists believe it was formed even before the Appalachian Mountains. Heady stuff, that. We will have to ask Grothar how it happened :)
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Quoting bappit:

If people are calling you a troll, then you should stop and really ask why. Take responsibility for your actions. Maybe in fact you are not a troll, but why do people think you are?


I just am a casual observer , don't blog much, as I don't believe I have a lot to offer . But I hate seeing folk being called names and find it very immature and nasty and thought I would speak up for a change . I am really surprised that people are allowed ,to call people trolls as its an insult.
Member Since: May 30, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
Quoting hydrus:
I have read about that river ...Amazing stuff...Some scientists believe the the Appalachian Mountains may have been taller than the Himalaya,s at one time.


Yea, I watched something about it this a.m. Friggen hard to wrap my mind around a time frame that would allow 5 miles of granite to erode away....
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
448. yoboi
Hundreds of private e-mail messages and documents hacked from a computer server at a British university are causing a stir among global warming skeptics, who say they show that climate scientists conspired to overstate the case for a human influence on climate change.

Skip to next paragraph
Related
Post a Comment on DotEarth | ReadThe e-mail messages, attributed to prominent American and British climate researchers, include discussions of scientific data and whether it should be released, exchanges about how best to combat the arguments of skeptics, and casual comments — in some cases derisive — about specific people known for their skeptical views. Drafts of scientific papers and a photo collage that portrays climate skeptics on an ice floe were also among the hacked data, some of which dates back 13 years.

In one e-mail exchange, a scientist writes of using a statistical “trick” in a chart illustrating a recent sharp warming trend. In another, a scientist refers to climate skeptics as “idiots.”

Some skeptics asserted Friday that the correspondence revealed an effort to withhold scientific information. “This is not a smoking gun; this is a mushroom cloud,” said Patrick J. Michaels, a climatologist who has long faulted evidence pointing to human-driven warming and is criticized in the documents.

Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 2011
Quoting indianrivguy:
428. hydrus 10:24 AM EST on November 27, 2012

hmmm, Grothar will not be happy about about preemptive blobbage reporting...

422. goosegirl1 9:29 AM EST on November 27, 2012

Despite its name, the New River is the third-oldest river in the world geologically,[7] and the only nontidal river[8] that crosses the Appalachian Mountains.

wow.. pretty dang old.....

Hey Tim! Good to see ya!



THIS is a blob. I was going to post it last night, but I was afraid I might make some nasty comments to a few bloggers.



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Quoting bluheelrtx:

Once a year you can even jump off of it legally. I got to do that about 10 years ago.


Yes, during Bridge Days. I have never been brave enough to try :) but my crazy brother jumps when he can get time to go.
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Quoting goosegirl1:


Here's my personal favorite, and it's even on the east coast: Link

I haven't been there for several years, but you used to be able to take helicopter tours or ride a cable cars system down to the river. It's one of the oldest rivers on earth, and an amazing place to visit.

Once a year you can even jump off of it legally. I got to do that about 10 years ago.
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Snowbunny in PA.)2" on the ground.LOVIN IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting indianrivguy:
428. hydrus 10:24 AM EST on November 27, 2012

hmmm, Grothar will not be happy about about preemptive blobbage reporting...

422. goosegirl1 9:29 AM EST on November 27, 2012

Despite its name, the New River is the third-oldest river in the world geologically,[7] and the only nontidal river[8] that crosses the Appalachian Mountains.

wow.. pretty dang old.....

Hey Tim! Good to see ya!
I have read about that river ...Amazing stuff...Some scientists believe the the Appalachian Mountains may have been taller than the Himalaya,s at one time.
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442. VR46L
Quoting pcola57:


Nasty looking weather in the panhandle..But looks horrble in the whole Northern coast ..LSU Goes Imagery infrared link embedded



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Quoting pcola57:


Howdy back to you Doug.. :)
I think I remember you live in East Hill..am I right?
And this rain is just great isn't it?
Just coming down gently but enough to make a difference to my lawn and other flora..
Quoting pcola57:


Howdy back to you Doug.. :)
I think I remember you live in East Hill..am I right?
And this rain is just great isn't it?
Just coming down gently but enough to make a difference to my lawn and other flora..




Navy Point
On the Bayou across fron NAS.
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Quoting hydrus:
Led Zep. The Rain Song.


Four cookies for you (one for each member of Zep).............. :)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
In honor of the passage of the front across the Gulf today........Cookie for the one who gets the song title/artist correct:

These are the seasons of emotion and like the winds they rise and fall

This is the wonder of devotion - I see the torch we all must hold.

This is the mystery of the quotient - Upon us all a little rain must fall.


Led Zep. The Rain Song. Cookie, cookie , cookie..:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In honor of the passage of the front across the Gulf today........Cookie for the one who gets the song title/artist correct:

These are the seasons of emotion and like the winds they rise and fall

This is the wonder of devotion - I see the torch we all must hold.

This is the mystery of the quotient - Upon us all a little rain must fall.


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437. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
Disagreeing has nothing to do with it. Deliberately and repeatedly posting debunked and foolish nonsense does.



like your man on the couch analogy????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 2011
436. yoboi
Quoting indianrivguy:


government...



oh ok thanks thought it was a new word....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 2011
http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/Wakejumper20/80 ?gallery=EDITORSPICK

Yes, obviously contrails do alter the reflectivity of the atmosphere.

looks like an awesome storm off Alaska!
And a nice rain front moving across the SE US. Hope it makes it to Florida.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 113 Comments: 1501
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428. hydrus 10:24 AM EST on November 27, 2012

hmmm, Grothar will not be happy about about preemptive blobbage reporting...

422. goosegirl1 9:29 AM EST on November 27, 2012

Despite its name, the New River is the third-oldest river in the world geologically,[7] and the only nontidal river[8] that crosses the Appalachian Mountains.

wow.. pretty dang old.....

Hey Tim! Good to see ya!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2428
I'm doing a little study for the next AMS conference in San Antonio on precip patterns for the west coast. There is some speculation that seasonal blocking circulations are becoming more persistent (this would affect the timing of precipitation, amongst other things. I have yet to find unequivocal proof of that, but here's an interesting nugget from a simple 500 HPa Geopotential height anomaly analysis from the NCAR reanalysis data set:



Sorry the pics are so tiny - I'm not sure why. The top image is 500 HPa height anomaly from each October, 1991-2000. The next is each October from 2001-2012. Cool colors are negative; warm positive. It struck me as a very vivid flop. Normally one would expect a more-or-less equal anomaly distribution averaged over 10 years; not always, but in the ball park. The last 11 years, though are markedly different than the 90's; more than I had expected, for sure. The darkest reds correspond to a positive surface temp anomaly of about 2C. If anyone is interested I'll try to post a bigger image later today.
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A strong storm (with a central pressure near 950 hPa or 28.05″) had been intensifying over the Gulf of Alaska on 02 November 2012, and eventually began to exhibit a classic tightly-wrapped signature of a cyclone that had reached the occluded stage. This storm was producing widespread storm-force winds, with some gusts to hurricane force over the western Gulf of Alaska.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:





howdy neighbor.


Howdy back to you Doug.. :)
I think I remember you live in East Hill..am I right?
And this rain is just great isn't it?
Just coming down gently but enough to make a difference to my lawn and other flora..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.