Damaging Katrina-level storm surges are twice as likely in warm years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:22 PM GMT on November 26, 2012

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Perhaps the most stunning images in the wake of Hurricane Sandy were the sight of the roller coaster from the Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, New Jersey lying in the Atlantic Ocean. The images reminded us that hurricane storm surges are capable of causing tremendous destruction along the coast, and one of the main concerns on how global warming might affect hurricanes is the potential for stronger hurricanes to create larger storm surges. We expect that global warming should make the strongest hurricanes stronger, since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the ocean and converts it to wind energy. These stronger winds will be capable of piling up higher storm surges. However, it is controversial whether or not we have observed an increase in the strongest hurricanes, since hurricane winds are hard to observe. Our long-term hurricane data base is generally too low in quality and covers too short a period of time to make very good estimates of how climate change may be affecting hurricane winds. However, a new 2012 paper, "Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923" by Grinsted et al., looked at storm surge data from six tide gauges along the U.S. coast from Texas to New Jersey, and concluded that the number of moderately large hurricane and tropical storm surge events has increased since 1923. Moderately large storm surge events are on pace to nearly double by the year 2100, compared to 20th century levels. Moreover, 1-in-9 year to 1-in-30 year Katrina-level storm surge events are twice as likely to occur in warm years compared to cool years, and thus global warming may be able to dramatically increase the frequency of highly damaging extreme storm surge events. Since sea level is steadily rising due to global warming, these future storm surges will also be riding in on top of an elevated ocean surface, and will thus be able to do even greater damage than in the past. Expect to see many more shocking storm surge damage photos in the coming decades, unless we wise up, retreat from areas highly vulnerable to storm surge, and invest in increased shoreline protection measures.


Figure 1. The Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, N.J. taken during a search and rescue mission by 1-150 Assault Helicopter Battalion, New Jersey Army National Guard on Oct. 30, 2012. Image credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen.


Figure 2. Top: Observed long-term frequency of moderately large storm surge events from hurricanes and tropical storms measured at six tide gauges along the U.S. East Coast (inset map). The thick line is a 5-year moving average. These type of surge events occurred an average of 5.4 times/year between 1923 - 2008, and are on pace to increase to 9.5 events per year by 2100. Bottom: Departure of Earth's annual mean surface temperature from average, shaded to show warmer and colder than median temperatures. Large storm surge events increase in probability during warmer than average years. Image credit: Grinsted et al. 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923."

Using storm surge to evaluate damage normalization studies
Damage from landfalling storms can be used to estimate if hurricanes are growing stronger with time, but damage estimates must first be corrected to account for changes in wealth and population over time. A 2008 study by Pielke et al. found that although hurricane damages had been doubling every ten years in recent decades, there were no increases in normalized hurricane damages in the U.S. from 1900 - 2005. They used census and economic data to adjust for how increases in populations and wealth may have affected hurricane damages over time. However, Grinsted et al. (2012) questioned whether or not this was done correctly. They found that storm surge heights of U.S. hurricanes and tropical storms correlated very well with metrics that looked at storm intensity, when looking at many decades of data to see long-term trends. However, the researchers found that while short-term trends in normalized hurricane damage estimated by Pielke et al. (2008) did correlate well historical storm surges, these normalized damages had poor correlation with the storm surge record, when looking at decades-long time scales. This implies that the corrections were biased. Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Western Australia makes the case that efforts such as the one done by Pielke et al. (2008) to normalize disaster losses are probably biased too low, since they only look at factors that tend to increase disaster losses with time, but ignore factors that tend to decrease disaster losses. These ignored factors include improvements in building codes, better weather forecasts allowing more preparation time, and improved fire-fighting ability. He writes, "Most normalization research to date has not accounted for those variables because they are extremely difficult to quantify. (And most researchers have been at pains to point that out; e.g., Neumayer & Barthel, 2011, pp. 23-24.) In effect, normalization research to date largely rests on the oddly inconsistent pair of assumptions that (a) we have built up enormous wealth during the 20th century but (b) did so without any technological advance whatsoever." Grinsted et al. (2012) suggest that it may be possible to use their storm surge data to correct biased hurricane damage estimates, though. Take home message: studies showing no increase in normalized damage from storms have high uncertainty, and it is possible that higher economic damages due to stronger hurricanes are indeed occurring.

References
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109

Pielke et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005", Natural Hazards Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42.

Links
In this remarkable home video, 15-year-old Christofer Sochacki captures the evening high tide on the day Superstorm Sandy struck Union Beach, New Jersey. The later part of the video shows how high waves on top of a 8-foot storm surge can lead to a punishing assault on beach-front structures.

Jeff Masters

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Yes.. unfortunate that I am not a weather person! Try and learn here. Have enough home grown knowledge of this. Limited but I can grow plants and teach others how to raise them. AND yes I am home grown. I would say that I have more knowledge than anyone coming out of a Hort School today! Just looking at weather and it's changes. Hort does not teach that. Chems are a problem that need to be looked at in a serious way in the US. I'll stop here because I am banned from Reuters. (Probably a wonderful thing here). Check out Honeybees and Europe! No this is really weather related... has to do with rain and seeds! I'll stop:)
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Quoting Minnemike:
there is trollish behavior, and there are trolls.
i think it should be clear to us all he's not a troll. nor am i, despite lately that while being very wrapped up with a new baby, i've become incensed to only comment upon seeing his tactic employed within a cloak of righteousness.. i mean, at least Nea links data, despite people expressing a lack of tact. so in the moments i have to compose on this forum my observations relevant to discussions, i've narrowly addressed Tomball.
guess that that last bit was a long winded supporting statement that i too am not a troll ;)


Congrats on the new baby Mike!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2587
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:


its those damned quarks I tell ya... they are making the holes...


Yeah, and they are trying to convince us they can tell the mass of a constellation 10 billion light years from earth. HA.
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Quoting yonzabam:


I got an hour's ban for calling him a troll. Personal attacks are not allowed. Fair enough, I understand that, but it was an honest appraisal of his behaviour on here.

Nea also accused him of 'trollish behaviour' and he hasn't been on here recently.
there is trollish behavior, and there are trolls.
i think it should be clear to us all he's not a troll. nor am i, despite lately that while being very wrapped up with a new baby, i've become incensed to only comment upon seeing his tactic employed within a cloak of righteousness.. i mean, at least Nea links data, despite people expressing a lack of tact. so in the moments i have to compose on this forum my observations relevant to discussions, i've narrowly addressed Tomball.
guess that that last bit was a long winded supporting statement that i too am not a troll ;)
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The Climate Prediction Center is still bullish about a warm 6-10 day period for almost all of the Lower 48:

CPC
Quoting yonzabam:
Nea...hasn't been on here recently.
I didn't go anywhere; just finishing up an iPhone app, and putting the finishing touches on migrating a client to VOIP...
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Powerful “Pineapple Express” system will bring flooding to parts of the West Coast this week
Posted by Chris Kerr on November 27, 2012
A strong and broad low pressure system will remain nearly stationary off the U.S. Northwest coast this week, bringing repeated rounds of very heavy rain to western Oregon and Northern California. This set up is a “Pineapple Express” type of system in which copious amounts of tropical moisture from north of the Hawaiian Islands is transported across the North Pacific Ocean into the main storm system.


Water Vapor satellite showing the current position of the storm system that will affect the U.S. West Coast this week.

“Pineapple Express” storms have the ability to cause significant flooding and mud slides. Were this event to occur later into December or January there would be a major threat of flooding in mountainous areas due to snow melt. So far this fall in the Sierra Nevada’s snowfall has been fairly light, thus the risk of flooding due to snow melt is somewhat low.

WDT WeatherOps WRF model showing some locations could receive well over a foot of total rainfall!

Some heavy snowfall is expected in the mountains, however due to the tropical nature of the air mass snow levels will generally be above 8000-9000 feet. Some isolated severe storms are not out of the question across parts of northern California on Wednesday. Strong dynamics coupled with cold air aloft will allow for the formation of some mini-supercells. Strong winds up to 60 mph will be possible in both coastal and mountain areas as well. Keep checking our blog throughout this week for more updates on this significant storm!
http://weatherops.wdtinc.com/?p=1413
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Quoting Grothar:
I didn't have much to do today, so I downloaded Stephen Hawking's equations on the unified field theory. I want to see if he made any mistakes. Even according to him, his theory has a lot of black holes in it. You have to watch these scientists carefully.


its those damned quarks I tell ya... they are making the holes...
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2587
GFS West Coast "Pineapple Express" http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedd ed&v=3rNsIDG5Hjs
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I didn't have much to do today, so I downloaded Stephen Hawking's equations on the unified field theory. I want to see if he made any mistakes. Even according to him, his theory has a lot of black holes in it. You have to watch these scientists carefully.
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Quoting MrMixon:
Well, it's definitely going to rain in Northern California during the next five days...



as for topography... is there any rivers or outlets to sea for major drainage?
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Quoting JustPlantIt:

Yes, think this is scary for weather! Saw your post last eve. Worry... have friends in San Fran. Want to know more about this. See today a HUGE storm off of Alaska. This is crazy weather!


To clear up any misunderstanding, the storm off of Alaska posted in comment #431 was from November 2nd - not current. Hydrus made mention of that in the caption above his image.

Here's the current Northeast Pacific WV sat.

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Quoting Minnemike:
hey TomballTXPride, why do you keep asserting people aren't satisfying your necessity of criteria for valid data, meanwhile you post No data yourself, all the while accusing others of character assassination because they do exactly what you are doing... why is that?
you've not cited one source in this entire comment section, but you've used plenty of your own words to refute via opinion the actual cited and peer reviewed facts being provided by counterparts in the debate.

it reeks of smear tactic, non-substantiated. i wouldn't remark on it if you didn't accuse others of doing the same repeatedly... yes, several others do only resort to smear, they just don't pervasively perform the level of hypocrisy you have objectively demonstrated.


I got an hour's ban for calling him a troll. Personal attacks are not allowed. Fair enough, I understand that, but it was an honest appraisal of his behaviour on here.

Nea also accused him of 'trollish behaviour' and he hasn't been on here recently.
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Quoting Luisport:
Just see this map! http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273489878375862 273/photo/1
RyanMaueRyan Maue 3 h


GFS 12z showed 5-day rain totals for N. California from San Fran north 6-12'' (+ at elevation, all liquid). Amazing
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566. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Area of interest in the Bay Of Bengal. (lower right corner of water vapor imagery)
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Quoting JustPlantIt:

Yes, think this is scary for weather! Saw your post last eve. Worry... have friends in San Fran. Want to know more about this. See today a HUGE storm off of Alaska. This is crazy weather!
Just see this map! http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273489878375862 273/photo/1
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Quoting Luisport:
Thank's for me this is an event that everyone should be whatching very close!!!
Yes, think this is scary for weather! Saw your post last eve. Worry... have friends in San Fran. Want to know more about this. See today a HUGE storm off of Alaska. This is crazy weather!
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563. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
JTWC remains at 45kts at 2100z warning. The peak intensity on day 5 is 100kts.



** WTPQ20 BABJ 271800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS BOPHA 1224 (1224) INITIAL TIME 271800 UTC
00HR 4.5N 155.0E 1000HPA 18M/S
30KTS 200KM
P12HR W 10KM/H
P+24HR 4.0N 152.8E 988HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 4.0N 150.5E 980HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 4.9N 146.8E 970HPA 35M/S
P+96HR 6.1N 143.0E 965HPA 38M/S
P+120HR 6.9N 139.8E 960HPA 40M/S=

that is odd.. CMA is only showing 80 knots and they are usually close to JTWC estimate forecast intensity.
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http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/me dium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and %20mslp!48!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plot s!2012112712!!/
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561. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 27 2012
======================================

The low pressure area over Andaman Sea and neighborhood persists. It would become well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.
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hey TomballTXPride, why do you keep asserting people aren't satisfying your necessity of criteria for valid data, meanwhile you post No data yourself, all the while accusing others of character assassination because they do exactly what you are doing... why is that?
you've not cited one source in this entire comment section, but you've used plenty of your own words to refute via opinion the actual cited and peer reviewed facts being provided by counterparts in the debate.

it reeks of smear tactic, non-substantiated. i wouldn't remark on it if you didn't accuse others of doing the same repeatedly... yes, several others do only resort to smear, they just don't pervasively perform the level of hypocrisy you have objectively demonstrated.
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Quoting MrMixon:
Well, it's definitely going to rain in Northern California during the next five days...

Thank's for me this is an event that everyone should be whatching very close!!!
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Here is the JTWC prognostic reasoning of the 2100z warning.

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE DEEP CENTRALLY LOCATED CONVECTION PERSISTS
IN FLARING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT EXPANSION OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EIR SHOWS THE BROKEN FORMATIVE
BANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM HAVE YET TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE CENTRALIZED CONVECTION. A 271313Z OSCAT PASS
INDICATES WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTER RANGE
FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH THE SYSTEMS PRESENT INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE LLCC
PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT INCREASE IN POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AS A MIGRATORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD,
AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR GREATER VENTING ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. TS 26W HAS SEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT REMAINS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SPEED AND GENERALLY TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VWS, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. INTENSITY WILL
STEADILY INCREASE TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT BEGINS TO FAN OUT THROUGH TAU 120.
GFDN AND EGRR REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY WESTWARD, WITH NGPS AND GFS
TRACKING THE SYSTEM BETWEEN PALAU AND YAP, AND ECMF REMAINS THE
NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF YAP. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS THE NGPS/GFS SOLUTION, BUT STAYS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE EARLIER TAUS DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW BASED ON
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14571
Quoting yoboi:


i am trying to download a graph from his site and having trouble....the trend shows the temps going down but co2 going up would like someone to explain that because it's confusing to me....


Turn it upside down. It might make more sense.
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556. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


No. It's called using datasets that are relevant and comparable. If datasets are on different baselines they are not comparable. It's not a matter of "tailoring to our liking" or whatever other scare-words one comes up with, it's a matter of being accurate, correct, & honest.

If you still are having confusion over this topic, please read my post above that summarizes the many differences between temperature data sets. It is important to know the differences between them if you want to talk about them.



how accurate are pre 1979 data sets??? is there a % you could provide trying to really understand how accurate data sets are...thanks
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2405
Local Weather Alert

Flood Watch for Northern San Joaquin Valley, CA

From 4:00 PM PST, Thu., Nov 29, 2012 until 4:00 PM PST, Sun., Dec 02, 2012

Issued by The National Weather Service
Sacramento, CA

Tue, Nov 27, 2012, 11:12 AM PST

Local Radar Map
Updated Nov 27, 2012, 12:20pm PST

Weather in Motion® | Enlarge Map
Get WeatherReady
During a Flood
After the Flood
Home Cleanup
Preventing Water Damage
Video: WeatherReady Safety & Preparation
... FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... SACRAMENTO VALLEY... WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA... NORTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS... CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA... CLEAR LAKE AREA... SHASTA LAKE AREA... LASSEN PARK... MOTHERLODE... NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND EAST SLOPE OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL MOUNTAINS.

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER SHASTA COUNTY ALONG WITH BUTTE AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTIES WHERE A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS: DEBRIS FLOWS LIKELY... ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS IN SHASTA... TEHAMA... COLUSA... AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS WITH RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED ON THE UPPER SACRAMENTO RIVER. MOUNTAIN RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ABOVE THE RESERVOIRS IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
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Well, it's definitely going to rain in Northern California during the next five days...

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JTWC remains at 45kts at 2100z warning. The peak intensity on day 5 is 100kts.

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 4.7N 155.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.7N 155.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 5.0N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 5.3N 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 5.6N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 5.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 6.3N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 7.0N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 8.5N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 4.8N 154.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 16
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14571
Quoting yonzabam:
I know that different greenhouse gases trap outgoing infrared at different wavelengths, and that the efficiency of this heat trapping process diminishes the more of the greenhouse gas is added, until a saturation point is reached where adding more of a greenhouse gas does not result in additional warming.

This is why you hear discussions of climate sensitivity being related to a doubling of CO2 concentration. It's better approximated by logarithmic than linear. It's not so much that it "doesn't result in additional warming," it's more that the resulting warming effect gets smaller and smaller as the concentration increases.
Quoting yonzabam:
In the past, some argued that this saturation point had virtually been reached for the two infrared wavelength regions that CO2 traps, so that the addition of more CO2 would have no effect.

Some have tried to argue this but it is just not accurate.
Quoting yonzabam:
But, water vapour reradiates outgoing infrared at such a broad range of wavelengths, that it's difficult to imagine any saturation point being reached, although it will become progressively less efficient as a heat trapping gas.

Bit confused, here. If increasing cloud cover is not the mechanism that counteracts the increasing warming effect of increased water vapour, what is?

Water vapor has a much much lower residence time in the atmosphere than CO2. Addition of tons of H20 today would mostly be gone within several days. Without another mechanism to continually add H20 to the atmosphere, it's concentration would not stay high. (Hint: the other mechanism is GHG warming)

Not all clouds are a negative feedback to a warming global climate. Low clouds typically have a net cooling effect and high clouds typically have a net warming effect.
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Quoting Luisport:
The ARKstorm was what would be predicted as a major rainfall event that would consist of a lot of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, followed by a tropical air mass that melts all the snow.

Such a scenario might actually be coming, with the first round hitting on Wednesday, then Thursday into Friday, another on Saturday, and then lasting through Sunday as well. A full five days worth of heavy rainfall in Northern and Central California.

This will bring heavy mountain snow to the higher elevations, but below 8,000 feet it should be all rain. This will melt a lot of the snow that is already up there and cause major flooding in the Central Valley zones.



Thats NOT an ARKstorm.

An ARKstorm is your little storm here on steroids.

An ARKstorm has hurricane force winds and lasts for a month.

This, you have here, is just your average California soaker.

Also, an ARKstorm is made up of a string of lows on the Pineapple Express. What you have here is just one high and one low.
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http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/beta?lat=38.1 2809&lon=-119.77052&zoom=7&type=lightmap&units=eng lish&rad=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=1&svr.opa=70&p ix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=0&nd fd=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&ib=0&pep=0&extremes=0&hurre vac=0&livesurge=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&hur=0
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549. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:
the funny thing is, the satellite data which shows .33C above the 33-year average is part of the overall data set used to show .6C over the last hundred years. the data are not incongruous.





i am trying to download a graph from his site and having trouble....the trend shows the temps going down but co2 going up would like someone to explain that because it's confusing to me....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2405
Quoting indianrivguy:
I saw it too late... arrrgggg

take care Pottery!

so Dougie.. hows corn snake taste?




Small and docile.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


hard to get interested if you don't give us something to be interested in.. the link doesn't work.. not a lot of info....are you meaning the monster storm under Alaska?

This one? Please credit Hydrus for the image from posts 427, 431.







Ty indianrivguy..
I couldn't figure what in the world his post meant..
And here's a shout out to both you and Hydrus for what ya'll bring to the blog.. :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I doubt it. The cloud pattern is still rough looking.

I doubt it also, it is organizing but no signs of an eye on microwave:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
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Quoting pottery:

Bad Omen......

You need to eat it right away to neutralise the Powers.


Careful. First its snakes, then brains. Zombies I tell ya. Its the zombies that worry me most :-P
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Quoting Luisport:
in the first map you can see a massive atmospheric river heading to north California
The ARKstorm was what would be predicted as a major rainfall event that would consist of a lot of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, followed by a tropical air mass that melts all the snow.

Such a scenario might actually be coming, with the first round hitting on Wednesday, then Thursday into Friday, another on Saturday, and then lasting through Sunday as well. A full five days worth of heavy rainfall in Northern and Central California.

This will bring heavy mountain snow to the higher elevations, but below 8,000 feet it should be all rain. This will melt a lot of the snow that is already up there and cause major flooding in the Central Valley zones.

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Quoting Luisport:
in the first map you post, you can see a massive atmospheric river heading to north California
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in the first map you can see a massive atmospheric river heading to north California
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Quoting Luisport:
No one is interested?


hard to get interested if you don't give us something to be interested in.. the link doesn't work.. not a lot of info....are you meaning the monster storm under Alaska?

This one? Please credit Hydrus for the image from posts 427, 431.





Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2587
Quoting Luisport:
Weather Underground‏@wunderground

Wind advisories and flood watches in effect for northern California as storm approaches: http://wxug.us/ug8f

23 hWeather Underground‏@wunderground

Take a look at this 5-day precip forecast valid Mon AM - Sat AM. 7-8 inches possible in Northern California. http://1.usa.gov/XsUd
So you can comment now???
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Bopha is getting ready to have an eye soon.Very nice CDO.


I doubt it. The cloud pattern is still rough looking.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Weather Underground‏@wunderground

Wind advisories and flood watches in effect for northern California as storm approaches: http://wxug.us/ug8f

23 hWeather Underground‏@wunderground

Take a look at this 5-day precip forecast valid Mon AM - Sat AM. 7-8 inches possible in Northern California. http://1.usa.gov/XsUd
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


The ARKstorm is a hypothetical storm that occurs when the pinapple express slows down causing lows to pile up at the coast.

If it was going to happen, trust me, this blog would be full of it.
This is allready starting, or you don't see the oficial warnings of california authorities???
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Edit: Nevermind..
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Quoting Luisport:
No one is discussing the Arkstorm heading to all west coast starting today???


The ARKstorm is a hypothetical storm that occurs when the pinapple express slows down causing lows to pile up at the coast.

If it was going to happen, trust me, this blog would be full of it.
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Quoting Luisport:
RyanMaueRyan Maue 2 h
GFS 12z showed 5-day rain totals for N. California from San Fran north 6-12'' (+ at elevation, all liquid). Amazing. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273489878375862 273/photo/1
No one is interested?
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


I don't think you understood what I wrote.

You implied that more WV automatically means more clouds, enough to offset the GH effect of the increased water vapor. Current research indicates that this is not so. Certain conditions need to be present for cloud formation. If WV increases but the cloud coverage doesn't increase enough to offset it, then you end up with a positive feedback, which is what is projected to happen.

For evidence that increased water vapor doesn't mean more cloud cover, take a look at some of the Middle East coutnries that border the ocean. High heat. High humidity. Few clouds.

Also, clouds are tropospheric phenomena mainly, which means there is still some warming as a result of increased WV. Greenhouse gases work by absorbing and re-radiating IR radiation in all directions. While clouds do act to increase albedo, they aren't perfect reflectors. Not all of that reflected energy will make it out of the troposphere.

And no, it would take a lot more than just water vapor to make the Earth reach a runaway GH effect. Our planet's orbit and short rotational period pretty much guarantee that the Earth won't become like Venus anytime soon. It would have happened already if it were possible (for example, the temperatures were significantly higher during the Jurassic period, and there was still no runaway GH).


So, if the water vapour feedback doesn't result in a runaway greenhouse effect, what stops it happening? More heat, more water vapour. More water vapour, more heat.

I know that different greenhouse gases trap outgoing infrared at different wavelengths, and that the efficiency of this heat trapping process diminishes the more of the greenhouse gas is added, until a saturation point is reached where adding more of a greenhouse gas does not result in additional warming.

In the past, some argued that this saturation point had virtually been reached for the two infrared wavelength regions that CO2 traps, so that the addition of more CO2 would have no effect.

But, water vapour reradiates outgoing infrared at such a broad range of wavelengths, that it's difficult to imagine any saturation point being reached, although it will become progressively less efficient as a heat trapping gas.

Bit confused, here. If increasing cloud cover is not the mechanism that counteracts the increasing warming effect of increased water vapour, what is?
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Quoting Luisport:
???
RyanMaueRyan Maue 2 h
GFS 12z showed 5-day rain totals for N. California from San Fran north 6-12'' (+ at elevation, all liquid). Amazing. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/273489878375862 273/photo/1
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Quoting auburn:


as always..its great!hope your the same!


great would have been a victory over lil nicky satan
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2587

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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