Damaging Katrina-level storm surges are twice as likely in warm years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:22 PM GMT on November 26, 2012

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Perhaps the most stunning images in the wake of Hurricane Sandy were the sight of the roller coaster from the Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, New Jersey lying in the Atlantic Ocean. The images reminded us that hurricane storm surges are capable of causing tremendous destruction along the coast, and one of the main concerns on how global warming might affect hurricanes is the potential for stronger hurricanes to create larger storm surges. We expect that global warming should make the strongest hurricanes stronger, since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the ocean and converts it to wind energy. These stronger winds will be capable of piling up higher storm surges. However, it is controversial whether or not we have observed an increase in the strongest hurricanes, since hurricane winds are hard to observe. Our long-term hurricane data base is generally too low in quality and covers too short a period of time to make very good estimates of how climate change may be affecting hurricane winds. However, a new 2012 paper, "Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923" by Grinsted et al., looked at storm surge data from six tide gauges along the U.S. coast from Texas to New Jersey, and concluded that the number of moderately large hurricane and tropical storm surge events has increased since 1923. Moderately large storm surge events are on pace to nearly double by the year 2100, compared to 20th century levels. Moreover, 1-in-9 year to 1-in-30 year Katrina-level storm surge events are twice as likely to occur in warm years compared to cool years, and thus global warming may be able to dramatically increase the frequency of highly damaging extreme storm surge events. Since sea level is steadily rising due to global warming, these future storm surges will also be riding in on top of an elevated ocean surface, and will thus be able to do even greater damage than in the past. Expect to see many more shocking storm surge damage photos in the coming decades, unless we wise up, retreat from areas highly vulnerable to storm surge, and invest in increased shoreline protection measures.


Figure 1. The Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, N.J. taken during a search and rescue mission by 1-150 Assault Helicopter Battalion, New Jersey Army National Guard on Oct. 30, 2012. Image credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen.


Figure 2. Top: Observed long-term frequency of moderately large storm surge events from hurricanes and tropical storms measured at six tide gauges along the U.S. East Coast (inset map). The thick line is a 5-year moving average. These type of surge events occurred an average of 5.4 times/year between 1923 - 2008, and are on pace to increase to 9.5 events per year by 2100. Bottom: Departure of Earth's annual mean surface temperature from average, shaded to show warmer and colder than median temperatures. Large storm surge events increase in probability during warmer than average years. Image credit: Grinsted et al. 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923."

Using storm surge to evaluate damage normalization studies
Damage from landfalling storms can be used to estimate if hurricanes are growing stronger with time, but damage estimates must first be corrected to account for changes in wealth and population over time. A 2008 study by Pielke et al. found that although hurricane damages had been doubling every ten years in recent decades, there were no increases in normalized hurricane damages in the U.S. from 1900 - 2005. They used census and economic data to adjust for how increases in populations and wealth may have affected hurricane damages over time. However, Grinsted et al. (2012) questioned whether or not this was done correctly. They found that storm surge heights of U.S. hurricanes and tropical storms correlated very well with metrics that looked at storm intensity, when looking at many decades of data to see long-term trends. However, the researchers found that while short-term trends in normalized hurricane damage estimated by Pielke et al. (2008) did correlate well historical storm surges, these normalized damages had poor correlation with the storm surge record, when looking at decades-long time scales. This implies that the corrections were biased. Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Western Australia makes the case that efforts such as the one done by Pielke et al. (2008) to normalize disaster losses are probably biased too low, since they only look at factors that tend to increase disaster losses with time, but ignore factors that tend to decrease disaster losses. These ignored factors include improvements in building codes, better weather forecasts allowing more preparation time, and improved fire-fighting ability. He writes, "Most normalization research to date has not accounted for those variables because they are extremely difficult to quantify. (And most researchers have been at pains to point that out; e.g., Neumayer & Barthel, 2011, pp. 23-24.) In effect, normalization research to date largely rests on the oddly inconsistent pair of assumptions that (a) we have built up enormous wealth during the 20th century but (b) did so without any technological advance whatsoever." Grinsted et al. (2012) suggest that it may be possible to use their storm surge data to correct biased hurricane damage estimates, though. Take home message: studies showing no increase in normalized damage from storms have high uncertainty, and it is possible that higher economic damages due to stronger hurricanes are indeed occurring.

References
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109

Pielke et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005", Natural Hazards Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42.

Links
In this remarkable home video, 15-year-old Christofer Sochacki captures the evening high tide on the day Superstorm Sandy struck Union Beach, New Jersey. The later part of the video shows how high waves on top of a 8-foot storm surge can lead to a punishing assault on beach-front structures.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AussieStorm:

If you haven't noticed, the whole blog is pro-climate change, including Dr Masters. Yes there is a separate blog for climate change but Dr Masters writes blogs on climate change when there is no weather news or topics.
Well, Dr. Masters also writes blog entries on climate change even when there is other weather news--but that's mostly because a) he understands that there isn't a single weather event happening today that isn't effected by the changing climate, and b) there's really no more profound or important thing to talk about than the greatest threat modern civilization has ever faced.

(FWIW, and as Mr. Mixon noted, none of us here are "pro climate change". In fact, most of us are very much against it. A group of oncologists may get together to discuss their specialty, but that doesn't mean they're "pro cancer". Likewise, a bunch of police officers talking shop at a law enforcement convention aren't "pro crime". Just so you know...)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13725
TWC: Why No Hurricane Warnings for Sandy?
Q & A with Dr. Rick Knabb, NHC Director.


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting AussieStorm:

If you haven't noticed, the whole blog is pro-climate change, including Dr Masters. Yes there is a separate blog for climate change but Dr Masters writes blogs on climate change when there is no weather news or topics.


I would say a more accurate phrase would be "pro-science". Only loonies are actually "pro-climate change". Nobody here (trolls excepted) wants worldwide calamity.

But you are absolutely correct that pro-science comments are more highly favored here than anti-science comments.
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Quoting trunkmonkey:
Need an explanation!

Weatherunderground has a section for Climate Change,

Why do we get so much discussion on the topic on The Tropical Chat?

When someone engages on the subject of Climate Change, Global Warming, they get flagged.

When a blogger challenges the pro-Climate Change people, they get ganged up on.

I love weather, I've learned more about weather from this blog, than any book or class could have taught me.

Here is what I don't understand, The Admins here ignore those who are pro-climate change on the Tropics section.

Here is the Weatherunderground policy!

I'm just following the rules, and I'm a paid subscriber!

Start a Tropics Chat!
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.




We can always discuss what subject Dr Masters picks for his blog. Since his blog involves climate change currently, well....
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Heres an interesting link.
Its to do with carbon laws outside of the US, in this case Europe. A quote from it:-

"Lawyers have said the bill is unusual because it would prevent U.S. companies from complying with the laws of another country."

Heres the link from Reuters:-

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/27/us-usa- airlines-emissions-idUSBRE8AQ1AR20121127
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2149
Repost from earlier.
2012 - The Year in Review, Volume I: Alberto - Debby.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
NWS @usNWSgov
Up to 5 inches of snowfall reported today across northern New Jersey #NWS #WinterWx http://go.usa.gov/gTKA



Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
SNOW!, first accumulating of the season.
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Quoting MidMOwx:


Isn't "trying" to do something an "action"?

I meant it in the vein of carrying on over and over again, as opposed to stopping the action and doing something different to achieve the desired result.
Apologies for not being crystal clear on that one.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2149
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Need an explanation!

Weatherunderground has a section for Climate Change,

Why do we get so much discussion on the topic on The Tropical Chat?

When someone engages on the subject of Climate Change, Global Warming, they get flagged.

When a blogger challenges the pro-Climate Change people, they get ganged up on.

I love weather, I've learned more about weather from this blog, than any book or class could have taught me.

Here is what I don't understand, The Admins here ignore those who are pro-climate change on the Tropics section.

Here is the Weatherunderground policy!

I'm just following the rules, and I'm a paid subscriber!

Start a Tropics Chat!
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

The topics of this blog, stated at the bottom of the heading are Hurricane and Climate change.
In this case any amount of discussion on climate change can occur as its part of the blog heading.
Look at the very bottom lines of the blog headings.
Having written this I personally feel that there is now very little of our present climatic situation which is not being affected by "climate change." In fact I also think that a lot of people would not be on here if it was not for their fears of climatic changes and it must be taken as fact that a lot of diverse and interesting information on climate details is available on here and probably nowhere else to the same degree.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2149
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Need an explanation!

Weatherunderground has a section for Climate Change,

Why do we get so much discussion on the topic on The Tropical Chat?

When someone engages on the subject of Climate Change, Global Warming, they get flagged.

When a blogger challenges the pro-Climate Change people, they get ganged up on.

I love weather, I've learned more about weather from this blog, than any book or class could have taught me.

Here is what I don't understand, The Admins here ignore those who are pro-climate change on the Tropics section.

Here is the Weatherunderground policy!

I'm just following the rules, and I'm a paid subscriber!

Start a Tropics Chat!
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

If you haven't noticed, the whole blog is pro-climate change, including Dr Masters. Yes there is a separate blog for climate change but Dr Masters writes blogs on climate change when there is no weather news or topics.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Would this be included on Sandy's disaster costs??

US Airways: Superstorm Sandy cost $35 million in profits

US Airways said its profits will take a $35 million hit because of the fallout from "Superstorm Sandy."

The Associated Press writes:

"The airline said the storm hurt October revenue by $30 million, and cut $15 million from October profits. It estimated that November's profit will be hurt by about $20 million because of the storm. "
"US Airways said total bookings fell 13% for Oct. 24 through Nov. 3 compared with the same period in 2011. And tickets booked within 13 days of departure — often an airline's most lucrative — dropped 21%."
The Charlotte Observer adds "for November, (US Airways) said it expects a 2% hit to passenger revenue per available seat mile, an important financial indicator for airlines … ."

The airline says demand has since returned to normal levels, according to The Arizona Republic.

Sandy disrupted travel plans in the busy Northeast over a prolonged period that stretched from from Oct. 24 through Nov. 3. US Airways' Philadelphia hub was among the hardest-hit airports during that window.

Overall, more than 20,000 flights were canceled from late October into early November because of Sandy.

Among other airlines, United – the nation's biggest carrier – said Sandy reduced its October profits by $35 million. Delta, the No. 2 carrier, put the figure at about $20 million.

Neither carrier offered an estimate of Sandy's impact for November.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting PlazaRed:

If you cant download it, it either doesn't exist or you should just take a screenshot of it.
If its on your screen, you can screenshot it.
Trying to do things sometimes is pointless. Actions are a lot better than words.


Isn't "trying" to do something an "action"?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Need an explanation!

Weatherunderground has a section for Climate Change,

Why do we get so much discussion on the topic on The Tropical Chat?

When someone engages on the subject of Climate Change, Global Warming, they get flagged.

When a blogger challenges the pro-Climate Change people, they get ganged up on.

I love weather, I've learned more about weather from this blog, than any book or class could have taught me.

Here is what I don't understand, The Admins here ignore those who are pro-climate change on the Tropics section.

Here is the Weatherunderground policy!

I'm just following the rules, and I'm a paid subscriber!

Start a Tropics Chat!
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:


i am trying to download a graph from his site and having trouble....the trend shows the temps going down but co2 going up would like someone to explain that because it's confusing to me....

If you cant download it, it either doesn't exist or you should just take a screenshot of it.
If its on your screen, you can screenshot it.
Trying to do things sometimes is pointless. Actions are a lot better than words.
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2149




Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
13 storms have formed since 1950 below 5N in WPAC.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
Quoting Luisport:
We can expect a storm each day starting Wednesday and lasting through Sunday with periods of heavy rain and gusty winds at times.

There is a concern of flooding in the North Bay and in the Santa Cruz mountains.

The San Anselmo creeks and rivers are among those at risk, so the city is handing out free sandbags and sand so residents can prepare for the wet weather. They remember the devastaing flood in 2005, and a smaller one in 2008. And so, the city wants to prevent downtown businesses from being submerged in water, like in years past.

Some residents, like Maynard Brusman, are taking it in stride. "Any place has problems," he told NBC Bay Area. "The rain is great. But you have to prepare for it."

Here's how it breaks down according to the NBC Bay Area weather department.

Tuesday will be a mostly cloudy day to start with areas of dense fog and drizzle. The clouds will increase in the afternoon as the first in a series of storms moves into the coast.

Storm No. 1 arrives early Wednesday morning. This will be heavy on the winds and moderate on the rain. This is a Bay Area wide system that will hit the entire region. It arrives before sunrise with the strongest wind and rain hitting between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m. Rain totals will be between .25 to 1.25 inch. The highest totals will be over the North Bay valleys. Rain will linger into the afternoon. Widespread Bay Area wind gusts of up to 50 mph could also bring down trees and create power outages.

Storm No. 2 will arrive Thursday and will last into Friday. It is a traditional north to south weather system with rain starting north of the Golden Gate and moving south. This system has more moisture content with as much as five inches of rain falling the North Bay. The current model projections have the flooding risk the highest on Friday. Local creeks, small rivers and streams will be at the greatest risk for quick rising water. Large Bay Area rivers could rise as much as 3 to 10 feet. There are no flood stages expected at this time. You can moniter conditions here.

Storm No. 3 is still developing, but has the potenital for even more moisture with periods of heavy rains on Saturday that could linger into Sunday. The first break in the weather will be next Monday.

The storms will also bring high surf along the coast. Probably not enough for the Mavericks surf contest to be called, but that is a possibility so stay tuned.
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Bay-Area-Sto rm-Door-Opens-Tomorrow-181039021.html


On the plus side, you could just hang your dirty laundry on the line now and by Tuesday next it should be done, no need to fuss with the washing machine. Such practicalities make boys proud of their dads.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Getting closer to Typhoon status acording to ADT.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 NOV 2012 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 4:47:54 N Lon : 154:54:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 992.4mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -82.4C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

That seems high. It's not that impressive on infrared. Definitely a large, cold CDO, but not all that impressive a cloud pattern and microwave has revealed that the inner core isn't all that great. It will strengthen but it could take time. That's bad news for the Philippines as the longer it stays weak the more likely it is to move close to that area.

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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
6:00 AM JST November 28 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Chuuk

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (998 hPa) located at 4.5N 154.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 4.8N 151.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Chuuk region
45 HRS: 5.1N 149.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
69 HRS: 5.6N 144.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island







BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
800 AM CHST WED NOV 28 2012

CORRECTED STORM MOTION

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.9 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF NUKUORO
85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
205 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT AND
565 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH BUT
IS EXPECTED RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...4.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 154.9
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 50 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
610. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
6:00 AM JST November 28 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Chuuk

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (998 hPa) located at 4.5N 154.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 4.8N 151.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Chuuk region
45 HRS: 5.1N 149.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
69 HRS: 5.6N 144.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
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Thank you so much! Please heads up to this storm!!!
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ARKstorm fears Northern California Residents as Atmospheric River sets up.



The ARKstorm was what would be predicted as a major rainfall event that would consist of a lot of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, followed by a tropical air mass that melts all the snow.

Such a scenario might actually be coming, with the first round hitting on Wednesday, then Thursday into Friday, another on Saturday, and then lasting through Sunday as well. A full five days worth of heavy rainfall in Northern and Central California.

This will bring heavy mountain snow to the higher elevations, but below 8,000 feet it should be all rain. This will melt a lot of the snow that is already up there and cause major flooding in the Central Valley zones.

14 inches of rain for Sacramento is in the official TheWeatherSpace.com Forecast grid with 20 inches for the foothill zones east of there.

San Francisco will get over eight inches of rainfall.

Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962


Rainfall Amount Wednesday through the Weekend in CA/OR/WA.

Look at the massive amounts in Northern California. Some areas, as stated in the article below, will receive 14-20" of rainfall near the Western Foothills of the Sierras.

Urging all residents to take precautions in the Northern California Central Valley and Foothills zones, extending up to South-west Oregon.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
The rain and snow should begin falling Wednesday and continue through Sunday.

Wind gusts could reach about 40 mph in and around the Sacramento Valley.

A flood watch also has been issued for the Valley.

There is the potential for urban and small stream flooding, where KCRA 3 meteorologists say some areas could see 3 to 5 inches of rain over the five-day period.

In the Feather River Canyon, where KCRA 3's David Bienick is reporting from Tuesday, there could be as many as 20 inches of rainfall, chief meteorologist Mark Finan said.

The Sierra could see as much as 2 feet of snow, above 7,000 feet.

Read more: http://www.kcra.com/news/What-to-expect-as-NorCal- braces-for-November-storm-series/-/11797728/175674 84/-/9pygikz/-/index.html#ixzz2DSs6zvoY
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GOES-R Satellite Program Undergoes Successful Review

The GOES-R Series Program, which is leading the effort to replace and upgrade NOAA’s existing fleet of geostationary satellites that track severe weather across the United States, received a favorable appraisal conducted by an external team of aerospace experts of its preparations to launch the new series, beginning in late 2015.

“Severe weather was again a major story in America this year,” said Mary Kicza, assistant administrator of NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service. “Passing this Mission Critical Design Review gives us confidence that the GOES-R Program’s development is progressing well and will be ready to carry the latest technology to help improve NOAA’s weather forecasts.”

At all times, NOAA operates two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) from a fixed position, 22,300 miles above the Earth. Additionally, NOAA keeps one GOES in orbital storage mode, ready to step in if one of the active satellites experiences trouble. NOAA’s geostationary satellites constantly monitor all weather conditions, from tornadoes, floods and snowstorms, to wildfires and developing tropical storms. Instruments on GOES also monitor solar activity.

NOAA’s GOES-13, which is the GOES East satellite, proved its mettle when Sandy threatened the Caribbean and the U.S., sending more than 1,200 images of the storm to NOAA forecasters, from October 20-31, as it approached -- and then impacted -- the Eastern seaboard.

NOAA manages the GOES-R Series Program through an integrated NOAA-NASA program office, staffed with personnel from NOAA and NASA, and co-located at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. Beginning with the first scheduled launch in 2015, the four GOES-R Series satellites will extend the GOES system through 2036.

The GOES-R satellites are expected to more than double the clarity of today’s GOES imagery and provide more atmospheric observations than current capabilities with more frequent images. Data from the GOES-R instruments will be used to create many different products that will help NOAA meteorologists and other users monitor the atmosphere, land, ocean and the sun. GOES-R will also carry a new Geostationary Lightning Mapper that will provide for the first time a continuous surveillance of total lightning activity throughout the Americas and adjacent oceans.

The satellite and instruments are procured and managed by NASA as part of the GOES-R Program at NASA Goddard. “This is a critical milestone in our program,“ said Pam Sullivan, project manager of the GOES-R Flight Project at NASA Goddard. “We have now completed spacecraft design and are transitioning into fabrication as we prepare to integrate the GOES-R instruments.”

“We’re just a few years away from seeing significant improvements in the way NOAA will serve the public with better weather forecasts and warnings,” said Greg Mandt, director of the GOES-R Series Program. “That’s something everyone should be excited about.”

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources.

For more information about GOES-R, visit:
www.goes-r.gov/
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Getting closer to Typhoon status acording to ADT.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 NOV 2012 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 4:47:54 N Lon : 154:54:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 992.4mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -82.4C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
http://www.weatherbug.com/images/bugtoday/Calif_Rai n_112812_1.jpg?lid=SCSI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fresh Storm Targets Northern California This Week
UPDATED 2 PM PST, November 27, 2012
By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Chad Merrill

A significant change in the weather pattern will unfold beginning Wednesday across California. A strong storm system will deliver heavy rain, gusty winds and high Sierra snow. Flash flooding will become a problem in the mountains and wildfire-burned areas.
A low pressure swirling in the Gulf of Alaska will slide eastward towards the Northwest Coast tonight and early Wednesday. As it does, southerly winds will wrap around the storm, bringing plenty of moisture that stretches across the eastern Pacific inland. All this moisture will be squeezed out as heavy rain in the Golden State with snow for the Sierra.
The rain will increase in coverage Wednesday and continue through Sunday, dropping up to a foot along the foothills of the Coast Range and Sierra with 4 to 5 inches farther north along the Oregon and Washington coasts.
Snow levels will drop from 11,000 feet to 6,000 feet as the storm moves onshore Wednesday. Therefore, only the highest elevations will squeak out the most snow. Winter Weather Advisories are in place for the Sierra for Wednesday. Elevations above 6,000 feet will accumulate 4 to 8 inches with places like Mt. Lassen getting more than a foot.
Flood Watches stretch throughout the Sacramento Valley for Thursday to Sunday. Flooding will be exacerbated across burn areas across Northern California resulting from this summer`s wildfires as the lack of vegetation along the hillsides will increase the runoff of water and mud. Additional flooding is possible as a result of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada.
In addition to the heavy rain, gusty winds will increase as the low strengthens offshore. Wind Advisories are in effect for the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys as well as south-central Oregon for Wednesday.
The mountains will see the strongest winds, with gusts up to 60 mph expected. The Central Valley will see sustained 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 55 mph. These winds will make travel along Interstates 5 and 80, U.S Route 50 and Highway 99 difficult, particularly for those in high-profile vehicles, and could also lead to localized power outages.
Energy spokes delivering fresh Pacific moisture inland will rotate around the main low that will pivot to the British Columbia Coast. This will keep the rain, wind and mountain snow threat going into Sunday. The pattern won't break until the Central U.S. high pressure ridge breaks down and slides east. That doesn't look to happen until early next week.
http://web.live.weatherbug.com/StormCentral/Page/ StormCentral.aspx?lid=SC2&&story_id=14302&zcode=z4 641&zip=90045&Units=0&rnd=112720121154-14302&utm_s ource=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
800 AM CHST WED NOV 28 2012

...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP...CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 154.9 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF NUKUORO
85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
205 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
270 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT AND
565 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SATAWAL.

TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH
NEARLY STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION LATER
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...4.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 154.9
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 50 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

WILLIAMS

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
Quoting Grothar:


You should only do that when you want to look at your watch.
Done that
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Dammit Gro.........I thought you were talking about my beer... Brb, Have to change clothes


You should only do that when you want to look at your watch.
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We can expect a storm each day starting Wednesday and lasting through Sunday with periods of heavy rain and gusty winds at times.

There is a concern of flooding in the North Bay and in the Santa Cruz mountains.

The San Anselmo creeks and rivers are among those at risk, so the city is handing out free sandbags and sand so residents can prepare for the wet weather. They remember the devastaing flood in 2005, and a smaller one in 2008. And so, the city wants to prevent downtown businesses from being submerged in water, like in years past.

Some residents, like Maynard Brusman, are taking it in stride. "Any place has problems," he told NBC Bay Area. "The rain is great. But you have to prepare for it."

Here's how it breaks down according to the NBC Bay Area weather department.

Tuesday will be a mostly cloudy day to start with areas of dense fog and drizzle. The clouds will increase in the afternoon as the first in a series of storms moves into the coast.

Storm No. 1 arrives early Wednesday morning. This will be heavy on the winds and moderate on the rain. This is a Bay Area wide system that will hit the entire region. It arrives before sunrise with the strongest wind and rain hitting between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m. Rain totals will be between .25 to 1.25 inch. The highest totals will be over the North Bay valleys. Rain will linger into the afternoon. Widespread Bay Area wind gusts of up to 50 mph could also bring down trees and create power outages.

Storm No. 2 will arrive Thursday and will last into Friday. It is a traditional north to south weather system with rain starting north of the Golden Gate and moving south. This system has more moisture content with as much as five inches of rain falling the North Bay. The current model projections have the flooding risk the highest on Friday. Local creeks, small rivers and streams will be at the greatest risk for quick rising water. Large Bay Area rivers could rise as much as 3 to 10 feet. There are no flood stages expected at this time. You can moniter conditions here.

Storm No. 3 is still developing, but has the potenital for even more moisture with periods of heavy rains on Saturday that could linger into Sunday. The first break in the weather will be next Monday.

The storms will also bring high surf along the coast. Probably not enough for the Mavericks surf contest to be called, but that is a possibility so stay tuned.
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Bay-Area-Sto rm-Door-Opens-Tomorrow-181039021.html
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597. yoboi
Quoting Grothar:


Turn it upside down. It might make more sense.



lol
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2522
596. yoboi
Quoting plutorising:


you didn't say the point you were making. you dredged up old news and tried to pass it off as something relevant. and you got caught out, and now you're weaseling.



point made again....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2522
Time to enjoy the beautiful day, 47F and the sun is shining. I'm going to the beach. As it is Seattle, the rain returns tomorrow, except this time it seems CA is going to catch the worst of it...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The Climate Prediction Center is still bullish about a warm 6-10 day period for almost all of the Lower 48:

CPCI didn't go anywhere; just finishing up an iPhone app, and putting the finishing touches on migrating a client to VOIP...
Things are busy in Naples this time of year with the Snowbirds arriving
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
Quoting Grothar:


I think that is why they call it the "string theory". That is what holds the universe together.



You are just pulling our string now. We both know that the dark doesn't matter. ....... Orrrrrrrrr, does it???
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Quoting Grothar:


Turn it upside down. It might make more sense.
Dammit Gro.........I thought you were talking about my beer... Brb, Have to change clothes
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
Quoting yoboi:



i said the point i was making......several times...cherry pick all ya want....


you didn't say the point you were making. you dredged up old news and tried to pass it off as something relevant. and you got caught out, and now you're weaseling.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I think that is why they call it the "string theory". That is what holds the universe together.

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and no snow accumulation for me in S PA :'(
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Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, and they are trying to convince us they can tell the mass of a constellation 10 billion light years from earth. HA.




Weighing it is the easy part. The hard part is putting it all back where it was after you weigh it.
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From: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
Headline: STORM TO REACH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STORM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
Description: THE FIRST STORM WILL PRODUCE AROUND 0NE HALF INCH OF RAIN UP TO ONE INCH LOCALLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO MERCED COUNTY AND FIVE HUNDREDTHS TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM NORTH OF KERN COUNTY TO FRESNO COUNTY. THERE WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN MOST PARTS OF KERN COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7500 FEET NEAR YOSEMITE...RISING TO AROUND 8000 FEET IN THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WITH THIS FIRST STORM WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR MERCED AND SW WINDS 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BELOW THE COTTONWOOD AND PACHECO PASSES. WINDS MAY ALSO BE STRONG IN THE SOUTH VALLEY NEAR THE BASE OF THE GRAPEVINE. A SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO LINGER MAINLY NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NORTH OF FRESNO COUNTY WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR MERCED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH OF KERN COUNTY TO FRESNO COUNTY AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN KERN COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 7500 FEET NEAR YOSEMITE... TO AROUND 8000 FEET IN SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK...AND AROUND 8500 FEET IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH THE SECOND STORM WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 6 INCHES IN SEQUOIA NATIONAL FOREST TO AROUND 10 INCHES NEAR YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK.
Instructions: STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE NEWS SOURCE... OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD...FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO VISIT OUR FACEBOOK PAGE AT US NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD OR TWEET US @NWSHANFORD ON TWITTER.
Target Area: WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERT-
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Quoting Luisport:
Powerful “Pineapple Express” system will bring flooding to parts of the West Coast this week
Posted by Chris Kerr on November 27, 2012
A strong and broad low pressure system will remain nearly stationary off the U.S. Northwest coast this week, bringing repeated rounds of very heavy rain to western Oregon and Northern California. This set up is a “Pineapple Express” type of system in which copious amounts of tropical moisture from north of the Hawaiian Islands is transported across the North Pacific Ocean into the main storm system.


Water Vapor satellite showing the current position of the storm system that will affect the U.S. West Coast this week.

“Pineapple Express” storms have the ability to cause significant flooding and mud slides. Were this event to occur later into December or January there would be a major threat of flooding in mountainous areas due to snow melt. So far this fall in the Sierra Nevada’s snowfall has been fairly light, thus the risk of flooding due to snow melt is somewhat low.

WDT WeatherOps WRF model showing some locations could receive well over a foot of total rainfall!

Some heavy snowfall is expected in the mountains, however due to the tropical nature of the air mass snow levels will generally be above 8000-9000 feet. Some isolated severe storms are not out of the question across parts of northern California on Wednesday. Strong dynamics coupled with cold air aloft will allow for the formation of some mini-supercells. Strong winds up to 60 mph will be possible in both coastal and mountain areas as well. Keep checking our blog throughout this week for more updates on this significant storm!
http://weatherops.wdtinc.com/?p=1413


Very nice.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


pffft... ya don't need no fancy pants telly scopes fer that...I saw a guy do that by holding his thumb up and sighting along side it.. to the OUNCE.. and this was pear reviewed too... :)


I thought Doug got you on the "pear" before. :)
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Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, and they are trying to convince us they can tell the mass of a constellation 10 billion light years from earth. HA.


pffft... ya don't need no fancy pants telly scopes fer that...I saw a guy do that by holding his thumb up and sighting along side it.. to the OUNCE.. and this was pear reviewed too... :)
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Quoting indianrivguy:


Congrats on the new baby Mike!
thanks!!!
^_^
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582. Skyepony (Mod)
This morning's OSCAT of the blob... People in Panama said it brought rain like they never saw before. That blob has killed people already.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 208 Comments: 39049
Quoting Luisport:
Powerful “Pineapple Express” system will bring flooding to parts of the West Coast this week
Posted by Chris Kerr on November 27, 2012
A strong and broad low pressure system will remain nearly stationary off the U.S. Northwest coast this week, bringing repeated rounds of very heavy rain to western Oregon and Northern California. This set up is a “Pineapple Express” type of system in which copious amounts of tropical moisture from north of the Hawaiian Islands is transported across the North Pacific Ocean into the main storm system.


Water Vapor satellite showing the current position of the storm system that will affect the U.S. West Coast this week.

“Pineapple Express” storms have the ability to cause significant flooding and mud slides. Were this event to occur later into December or January there would be a major threat of flooding in mountainous areas due to snow melt. So far this fall in the Sierra Nevada’s snowfall has been fairly light, thus the risk of flooding due to snow melt is somewhat low.

WDT WeatherOps WRF model showing some locations could receive well over a foot of total rainfall!

Some heavy snowfall is expected in the mountains, however due to the tropical nature of the air mass snow levels will generally be above 8000-9000 feet. Some isolated severe storms are not out of the question across parts of northern California on Wednesday. Strong dynamics coupled with cold air aloft will allow for the formation of some mini-supercells. Strong winds up to 60 mph will be possible in both coastal and mountain areas as well. Keep checking our blog throughout this week for more updates on this significant storm!
http://weatherops.wdtinc.com/?p=1413
Can someone at least comment this???
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Yes.. unfortunate that I am not a weather person! Try and learn here. Have enough home grown knowledge of this. Limited but I can grow plants and teach others how to raise them. AND yes I am home grown. I would say that I have more knowledge than anyone coming out of a Hort School today! Just looking at weather and it's changes. Hort does not teach that. Chems are a problem that need to be looked at in a serious way in the US. I'll stop here because I am banned from Reuters. (Probably a wonderful thing here). Check out Honeybees and Europe! No this is really weather related... has to do with rain and seeds! I'll stop:)
Member Since: November 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 488

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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