Damaging Katrina-level storm surges are twice as likely in warm years
Perhaps the most stunning images in the wake of Hurricane Sandy were the sight of the roller coaster from the Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, New Jersey lying in the Atlantic Ocean. The images reminded us that hurricane storm surges are capable of causing tremendous destruction along the coast, and one of the main concerns on how global warming might affect hurricanes is the potential for stronger hurricanes to create larger storm surges. We expect that global warming should make the strongest hurricanes stronger, since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the ocean and converts it to wind energy. These stronger winds will be capable of piling up higher storm surges. However, it is controversial whether or not we have observed an increase in the strongest hurricanes, since hurricane winds are hard to observe. Our long-term hurricane data base is generally too low in quality and covers too short a period of time to make very good estimates of how climate change may be affecting hurricane winds. However, a new 2012 paper, "Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923" by Grinsted et al., looked at storm surge data from six tide gauges along the U.S. coast from Texas to New Jersey, and concluded that the number of moderately large hurricane and tropical storm surge events has increased since 1923. Moderately large storm surge events are on pace to nearly double by the year 2100, compared to 20th century levels. Moreover, 1-in-9 year to 1-in-30 year Katrina-level storm surge events are twice as likely to occur in warm years compared to cool years, and thus global warming may be able to dramatically increase the frequency of highly damaging extreme storm surge events. Since sea level is steadily rising due to global warming, these future storm surges will also be riding in on top of an elevated ocean surface, and will thus be able to do even greater damage than in the past. Expect to see many more shocking storm surge damage photos in the coming decades, unless we wise up, retreat from areas highly vulnerable to storm surge, and invest in increased shoreline protection measures.
Figure 1. The Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, N.J. taken during a search and rescue mission by 1-150 Assault Helicopter Battalion, New Jersey Army National Guard on Oct. 30, 2012. Image credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen.
Figure 2. Top: Observed long-term frequency of moderately large storm surge events from hurricanes and tropical storms measured at six tide gauges along the U.S. East Coast (inset map). The thick line is a 5-year moving average. These type of surge events occurred an average of 5.4 times/year between 1923 - 2008, and are on pace to increase to 9.5 events per year by 2100. Bottom: Departure of Earth's annual mean surface temperature from average, shaded to show warmer and colder than median temperatures. Large storm surge events increase in probability during warmer than average years. Image credit: Grinsted et al. 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923."
Using storm surge to evaluate damage normalization studies
Damage from landfalling storms can be used to estimate if hurricanes are growing stronger with time, but damage estimates must first be corrected to account for changes in wealth and population over time. A 2008 study by Pielke et al. found that although hurricane damages had been doubling every ten years in recent decades, there were no increases in normalized hurricane damages in the U.S. from 1900 - 2005. They used census and economic data to adjust for how increases in populations and wealth may have affected hurricane damages over time. However, Grinsted et al. (2012) questioned whether or not this was done correctly. They found that storm surge heights of U.S. hurricanes and tropical storms correlated very well with metrics that looked at storm intensity, when looking at many decades of data to see long-term trends. However, the researchers found that while short-term trends in normalized hurricane damage estimated by Pielke et al. (2008) did correlate well historical storm surges, these normalized damages had poor correlation with the storm surge record, when looking at decades-long time scales. This implies that the corrections were biased. Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Western Australia makes the case that efforts such as the one done by Pielke et al. (2008) to normalize disaster losses are probably biased too low, since they only look at factors that tend to increase disaster losses with time, but ignore factors that tend to decrease disaster losses. These ignored factors include improvements in building codes, better weather forecasts allowing more preparation time, and improved fire-fighting ability. He writes, "Most normalization research to date has not accounted for those variables because they are extremely difficult to quantify. (And most researchers have been at pains to point that out; e.g., Neumayer & Barthel, 2011, pp. 23-24.) In effect, normalization research to date largely rests on the oddly inconsistent pair of assumptions that (a) we have built up enormous wealth during the 20th century but (b) did so without any technological advance whatsoever." Grinsted et al. (2012) suggest that it may be possible to use their storm surge data to correct biased hurricane damage estimates, though. Take home message: studies showing no increase in normalized damage from storms have high uncertainty, and it is possible that higher economic damages due to stronger hurricanes are indeed occurring.
References
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109
Pielke et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005", Natural Hazards Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42.
Links
In this remarkable home video, 15-year-old Christofer Sochacki captures the evening high tide on the day Superstorm Sandy struck Union Beach, New Jersey. The later part of the video shows how high waves on top of a 8-foot storm surge can lead to a punishing assault on beach-front structures.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I thought standard motor vehicles already use the torque on their wheel axles to recharge the battery?
Interesting thought - and I believe that it is Israel that is already on it ...only going at it in a differnt approach. They are putting the batteries in the road and the fricton from the tires is causing the charge to the battery. They have already been able to light parts of the city doing this.
99% sure that's a airplane, at the speeds a meteor would be going, you'd be lucky to have gotten a single shot of it.
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Nice pictures ...wonder what it was ...
but do they need any outside connectivity? As I said, the new volt from Holden(GM)Mitsubishi IMIEV, Nissan LEAF are all plug in cars. These are the current technologies.
Pretty steep dive for an airplane isnt it?
I see airplanes daily and believe me, this thing was going down so I don't think this was an airplane.
exactly!
The standard vehicle uses an alternator that is belt driven from the engine to recharge the battery and to produce power to run the car. No alternator, no power. A standard 12V car battery doesn't last more than 2 minutes without an alternator. I have experienced it myself.
Looks like it could hit Papua New Guinea which would mean it crosses over. It's curtainately drawing in moisture from PNG.
Loop
'Think' is the key word. My neighbor often takes pics of meteor showers. He can get several pics of just 'One'. Just a curious observer.
depends on the perspective. it appears to me that it is just a contrail photographed at an oblique angle.
reaping what he sows? as if it's his fault that people refuse to see reality?
this is all a bunch of scapegoating. people refuse to accept reality, and stubbornly point to al gore as the reason why, when we all know it has nothing to do with him. he's just a convenient excuse. if al gore dropped off the grid and lived in a shack, as i said before, they'd just find someone else to be 'the new excuse'.
What was the time different between the photo's. Maybe turn the local tv or radio on and see if anyone else saw it.
Dont yell ...lol
I'm a believer and try to lead by example ...I just have no influence or money. I'd just like the same from others where the impact would be larger.
I just looked out the window and saw this bright thing falling. I wasn't expecting to see that.
all i said is 1 +1 = 2 they both had opinions....
if your in a boat that is sinking and you have a bucket do you keep saying the boat is sinking until it has sunk??? or do you use the bucket to keep from sinking????
First One at 5:49 pm est
Second One at 5:49 pm est
Third One at 5:50 pm est
Great shots of whatever you've got. I would think that this was not a plane. Not sure. Hope others saw this as well. Can anyone see radar for this?
sales 101 if you want to sell a product and be very good at it, you will have more sales if you use said product....
the outer southern circulation goes over the equator,...amazing
If you're unsure about what you saw, you can always check other reports at the AMS report page, or even report your own sighting.
A meteor is gone within seconds. It's a west bound plane.
A few tens of kilometers per second isn't impossible to get several photos off, seeing as how it probably would be approaching at an angle.
Here's a fireball from a meteor, and it was seen for a while.
and
and
thanks. I'm reporting it.
Click pic for loop.
More then probably a plane, heading directly into the sunset.
The sun was probably just below the horizon from your point of view and the sunlight is lighting up the vapor trail, hence the appearance of it diving straight down.
A sort of miniture sunset effect.
You are encouraged to ignore trolls. Do not argue with them!
So if people followed that commonsense advice, what would we be arguing about?
Edit: People who argue with trolls are guilty along with the trolls.
its just a word, the point was to let it go
Radar
and sat
and
Floods in UK: Travel disrupted by heavy rain in northern England and Wales
I can wait till the days get longer. I love the snow and cold, and I don't really want winter to end any time soon.
I can't wait for my biannual 3 inch snowstorm....
I'm hoping we have a snow event that can cover our lawn this year...love the cold...and the best part is right after winter you get into tornado season.
Fall is the lamest season of the year....
Late winter and Early spring, and the transition from hoping for snow to wishing for severe weather is the best.
Fall is boring because the hurricane season is winding down but winter storms haven't begun yet. Winter is less than a month away from now luckily.
lucky you....its practically garunteed, if it is going to snow this year, to not do so until january....prob the 10th at the earliest.
Our heaviest snow events come in February, and the stronger February sun will melt that away in a day, no matter how far below freezing the temperature is.
It never snows when the temperature is below 25F at night in GA anyway.
Our first serial derecho event tends to come Feb 15th or after, and it is generally 68F or so and a squall line will come through on a massive cold front that stretches from Canada. And then by March we are watching the models for tornado outbreaks.
It's also not out of the question to have a February or January tornado outbreak, Alabama had a good one on January 23rd last year.
So really, cold isnt really cold here, and all im doing is hoping for snow.
Gas tanker Ob River attempts first winter Arctic crossing Link
"He stresses that the changes in climate are less important than the growing demand for oil and gas."
I think I am developing a brain tumor
Wrong. Fall is the best. Hurricanes are the best (or rather, they would be if this recurve pattern didn't bar any and all plans for a chase I might have).
Actually besides Sandy fall was quite boring, and nothing came to GA besides drought (which hasnt really left since the last TS remnant in 2009)
Summer Hurricanes are more fun to track.
Summer Weather is somewhat dull with afternoon Tstorms.
Winter to Spring actually brings the CONUS wx that can actually affect the SE and there isnt even much of a down time.
All fall has is maybe 1 or 2 hurricanes and a lot of speculation and wishcasting about snow season....which we in the SE can't even really do because its luck of the draw for us, and isn't much of a "season"
Plus you can chase in summer....Isaac came right to you.
You can chase snow in winter.
And tornadoes in spring and sometimes winter.
:D
By "fall" I meant mid to late August through the middle of September. Aka the period when troughs start becoming frequent enough to curve storms into the CONUS.
Early summer hurricanes aren't as exciting because the high generally pushes them into Mexico, ala Ernesto. And while I could chase hurricanes outside the lower 48, I'd have to buy a passport.
It is a money back guarantee that it will snow up here in SE MI. I get 100% of my money back if it, for some odd reason, doesn't snow all winter. I mean, it has already snowed 3 separate times... Yet I don't get severe weather in February and March, just heavy snows.
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