Damaging Katrina-level storm surges are twice as likely in warm years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:22 PM GMT on November 26, 2012

Share this Blog
43
+

Perhaps the most stunning images in the wake of Hurricane Sandy were the sight of the roller coaster from the Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, New Jersey lying in the Atlantic Ocean. The images reminded us that hurricane storm surges are capable of causing tremendous destruction along the coast, and one of the main concerns on how global warming might affect hurricanes is the potential for stronger hurricanes to create larger storm surges. We expect that global warming should make the strongest hurricanes stronger, since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the ocean and converts it to wind energy. These stronger winds will be capable of piling up higher storm surges. However, it is controversial whether or not we have observed an increase in the strongest hurricanes, since hurricane winds are hard to observe. Our long-term hurricane data base is generally too low in quality and covers too short a period of time to make very good estimates of how climate change may be affecting hurricane winds. However, a new 2012 paper, "Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923" by Grinsted et al., looked at storm surge data from six tide gauges along the U.S. coast from Texas to New Jersey, and concluded that the number of moderately large hurricane and tropical storm surge events has increased since 1923. Moderately large storm surge events are on pace to nearly double by the year 2100, compared to 20th century levels. Moreover, 1-in-9 year to 1-in-30 year Katrina-level storm surge events are twice as likely to occur in warm years compared to cool years, and thus global warming may be able to dramatically increase the frequency of highly damaging extreme storm surge events. Since sea level is steadily rising due to global warming, these future storm surges will also be riding in on top of an elevated ocean surface, and will thus be able to do even greater damage than in the past. Expect to see many more shocking storm surge damage photos in the coming decades, unless we wise up, retreat from areas highly vulnerable to storm surge, and invest in increased shoreline protection measures.


Figure 1. The Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, N.J. taken during a search and rescue mission by 1-150 Assault Helicopter Battalion, New Jersey Army National Guard on Oct. 30, 2012. Image credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen.


Figure 2. Top: Observed long-term frequency of moderately large storm surge events from hurricanes and tropical storms measured at six tide gauges along the U.S. East Coast (inset map). The thick line is a 5-year moving average. These type of surge events occurred an average of 5.4 times/year between 1923 - 2008, and are on pace to increase to 9.5 events per year by 2100. Bottom: Departure of Earth's annual mean surface temperature from average, shaded to show warmer and colder than median temperatures. Large storm surge events increase in probability during warmer than average years. Image credit: Grinsted et al. 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923."

Using storm surge to evaluate damage normalization studies
Damage from landfalling storms can be used to estimate if hurricanes are growing stronger with time, but damage estimates must first be corrected to account for changes in wealth and population over time. A 2008 study by Pielke et al. found that although hurricane damages had been doubling every ten years in recent decades, there were no increases in normalized hurricane damages in the U.S. from 1900 - 2005. They used census and economic data to adjust for how increases in populations and wealth may have affected hurricane damages over time. However, Grinsted et al. (2012) questioned whether or not this was done correctly. They found that storm surge heights of U.S. hurricanes and tropical storms correlated very well with metrics that looked at storm intensity, when looking at many decades of data to see long-term trends. However, the researchers found that while short-term trends in normalized hurricane damage estimated by Pielke et al. (2008) did correlate well historical storm surges, these normalized damages had poor correlation with the storm surge record, when looking at decades-long time scales. This implies that the corrections were biased. Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Western Australia makes the case that efforts such as the one done by Pielke et al. (2008) to normalize disaster losses are probably biased too low, since they only look at factors that tend to increase disaster losses with time, but ignore factors that tend to decrease disaster losses. These ignored factors include improvements in building codes, better weather forecasts allowing more preparation time, and improved fire-fighting ability. He writes, "Most normalization research to date has not accounted for those variables because they are extremely difficult to quantify. (And most researchers have been at pains to point that out; e.g., Neumayer & Barthel, 2011, pp. 23-24.) In effect, normalization research to date largely rests on the oddly inconsistent pair of assumptions that (a) we have built up enormous wealth during the 20th century but (b) did so without any technological advance whatsoever." Grinsted et al. (2012) suggest that it may be possible to use their storm surge data to correct biased hurricane damage estimates, though. Take home message: studies showing no increase in normalized damage from storms have high uncertainty, and it is possible that higher economic damages due to stronger hurricanes are indeed occurring.

References
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109

Pielke et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005", Natural Hazards Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42.

Links
In this remarkable home video, 15-year-old Christofer Sochacki captures the evening high tide on the day Superstorm Sandy struck Union Beach, New Jersey. The later part of the video shows how high waves on top of a 8-foot storm surge can lead to a punishing assault on beach-front structures.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 680 - 630

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

680. Skyepony (Mod)
Click pic for loop..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
679. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I know plenty about him already. Seems like his track record should increase everyone's skepticism of his claims beyond that of usual, no?

Waited a decade to correct increasingly obvious errors with satellite-derived lower troposphere temperature data that had a major cooling bias.

Claims to refute decades of science and sophisticated models with a "1-box model" he created of the ocean-atmosphere system and he didn't even use his own model correctly.

It shouldn't be up to good, skeptical scientists to correct his major errors. So forgive me if I'm more skeptical of things he posts on his blog than I am that of virtually every meteorological and climatological organization in the world.


that's why i am asking he is saying there is GW but it's not caused by humans in a large amount very minute....thanks for sharing your thoughts...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
678. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:
Here's a good Cliff Notes' summary of what Roy Spencer brings to the table regarding climate-change and its causes. This might be more productive reading for you, yoboi...

Link


in that link they say that Gw has a finger print caused by humans does that mean a small amount is caused by humans?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:



go to his site and read some of his studies and books...also talks about tide funding that other people use to fund certain studies i am still reading what he has to say it's alot..


I know plenty about him already. Seems like his track record should increase everyone's skepticism of his claims beyond that of usual, no?

Waited a decade to correct increasingly obvious errors with satellite-derived lower troposphere temperature data that had a major cooling bias.

Claims to refute decades of science and sophisticated models with a "1-box model" he created of the ocean-atmosphere system and he didn't even use his own model correctly.

It shouldn't be up to good, skeptical scientists to correct his major errors. So forgive me if I'm more skeptical of things he posts on his blog than I am that of virtually every meteorological and climatological organization in the world.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
676. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:
Here's a good Cliff Notes' summary of what Roy Spencer brings to the table regarding climate-change and its causes. This might be more productive reading for you, yoboi...

Link



thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
675. yoboi
Quoting OldLeatherneck:


Most of us have known that for many months now. It seems to be your "Steady State" as opposed to fluctuations due to normal variability.



thanks for the Gigg i can take the insults....i guess your another that won't use the bucket...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's a good Cliff Notes' summary of what Roy Spencer brings to the table regarding climate-change and its causes. This might be more productive reading for you, yoboi...

Link
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE.. 7:50 PM EST UPDATED
______________________

MAJOR CALIFORNIA STORM

about the map
if you make the pic bigger...there is the overlap from rain (green to yellow) snow (gray to pink) and the over dashed colors, the brown dashed shade and the yellow dashed shade those are for different wind gust potential.. siting on top of the snow/and on top of the rain.

It took me nearly 3 hours to do this map for you guys...




click on pic for bigger view


Even though I do not live on the west coast US, that is a great map and I enjoyed looking at it.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
672. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I am not sure if Dr. Roy Spencer claims that most of the warming is natural. Even if he did, that relates in no way to my post, as I just told you exactly why warming cannot be from the PDO. Known natural forcings to the earth's climate system favor a fairly stable, or slightly cooling, global climate. I believe this has been mentioned - to you specifically - numerous times?


Having "alot of peer review data" should not be confused with "having alot of peer review data in PDO causing climate change." He has very little, if any, that actually suggests this. The few analyses he has done on the subject didnt last long at all under scientific scrutiny. Who are these "NASA experts" that supposedly gave him this PDO-causes-climate-change data, anyway? Kinda sounds exaggerated or fabricated to this scientist.



go to his site and read some of his studies and books...also talks about tide funding that other people use to fund certain studies i am still reading what he has to say it's alot..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:



....... i am confused...


Most of us have known that for many months now. It seems to be your "Steady State" as opposed to fluctuations due to normal variability.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:



so is that why he says most of the warming is natural and not man made???


I am not sure if Dr. Roy Spencer claims that most of the warming is natural. Even if he did, that relates in no way to my post, as I just told you exactly why warming cannot be from the PDO. Known natural forcings to the earth's climate system favor a fairly stable, or slightly cooling, global climate. I believe this has been mentioned - to you specifically - numerous times?
Quoting yoboi:



that's how i get confused he has alot of peer reviewd data and support from current nasa experts...and he also states he has never accepted any money from any fossil fuel companies...


Having "alot of peer review data" should not be confused with "having alot of peer review data in PDO causing climate change." He has very little, if any, that actually suggests this. The few analyses he has done on the subject didnt last long at all under scientific scrutiny. Who are these "NASA experts" that supposedly gave him this PDO-causes-climate-change data, anyway? Kinda sounds exaggerated or fabricated to this scientist.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is a weather forum. People can agree or disagree. But why throw barbs and insults at people you don't agree with, it's just plain childish.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Weekly Tropical Climate Note
Issued on Tuesday 27 November 2012

A transitional period for the MJO
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains weak and erratic as has been the pattern observed over the past few weeks. November tends to be a transitional period for the MJO, particularly when both the Pacific and Indian Oceans are within neutral phases.
Over the past week, an active near-equatorial trough with several transient lows led to above average convection over South-East Asia and Indonesia. A stronger than average northern flank of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) led to enhanced convection over most of the Melanesian countries to the east of New Guinea.
Although the MJO is not contributing to increased rainfall over northern Australia, a series of troughs sweeping across the continent will bring relief to current conditions, in particular over northern WA and the Northern Territory, with rainfall expected later this week. Further north, across the Maritime Continent, suppressed convection is forecast to develop over the next two weeks.
Most model forecasts suggest the MJO will remain weak and erratic over the coming fortnight, with no contribution to tropical weather. The MJO is as an eastward moving "pulse" of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days. It is the largest contributor to the variability of the North Australian Monsoon (NAM) through its modulating effects on the active and break periods of the NAM.
See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information on location and tracking of the MJO.
El Nino Southern Oscillation update
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues within neutral parameters in the equatorial Pacific. This pattern will likely continue until at least early next year.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) remain on the warm side of neutral with the NINO3.4 index, located in the central Pacific, at 0.46 C. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, and tropical cloud patterns have remained at neutral levels through the southern winter and spring. The latest 30 day SOI to 24 November is 4.5.
See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.
Next update expected by 04 December 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
668. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

The PDO is one of the natural cycles, or internal variability, between weather and climate that is related to heat energy already within the earth's land/atmosphere/ocean/cryosphere system moving about to different locations. It manifests itself in temperature record data typically as changes to sea surface temperatures in the Pacific (P) Ocean. Sometimes it changes on time scales of about a decade or longer (D), but not always. It is argued by many that it really isn't a true oscillation (O), either.
Because it is a manifestation of heat moving about the whole climate system, it is not the introduction or removal of heat energy. As such, it cannot be a cause of global warming, which by definition is the accumulation of heat across the global climate system (air/water/ice).



so is that why he says most of the warming is natural and not man made???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
667. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:


He _does_ say a lot of things.
Most of which aren't actually supported by any sort of thorough review of the data-- it's much more of a 'what-could-be-true-if-you-focus-on-just-this-data set-and-ignore-the-other-dozen-that-disprove-the-h ypothesis', or 'what-would-be-true-if-you-start-from-bad-or-movin g-assumptions'. Neither of those is the hallmark of good science in practice.



that's how i get confused he has alot of peer reviewd data and support from current nasa experts...and he also states he has never accepted any money from any fossil fuel companies...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting beell:
Is this a fair comparison? If so, how accurate would you rate the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlooks taken at 4 day intervals?


Not very good. The CPC maps frustrate the heck out of me yet if they favor warmth, they'll be posted a time or twenty.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I want CO2 sensors on every caldera, PRONTO!

Then, I expect a comparison of atmospheric CO2 concentrations to what is "deemed" normal, tied to Earths proximity to the sun, showing the difference between active and inactive volcanic periods, related to Earth's sun oscillation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting schistkicker:
@ Yoboi #650:

It's not the PDO, no matter how much Roy Spencer wishes it were so.
Quoting yoboi:



go to his site he says things alot differ than i see on here....and other people from nasa support him so to me i am confused...

The PDO is one of the natural cycles, or internal variability, between weather and climate that is related to heat energy already within the earth's land/atmosphere/ocean/cryosphere system moving about to different locations. It manifests itself in temperature record data typically as changes to sea surface temperatures in the Pacific (P) Ocean. Sometimes it changes on time scales of about a decade or longer (D), but not always. It is argued by many that it really isn't a true oscillation (O), either.
Because it is a manifestation of heat moving about the whole climate system, it is not the introduction or removal of heat energy. As such, it cannot be a cause of global warming, which by definition is the accumulation of heat across the global climate system (air/water/ice).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's Florence's, as promised. Joyce's TCR may or may not come out tonight. If it doesn't, it'll be out with Kirk's tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Report: Tropical Storm Florence (AL062012)

Here is Bud's TCR from yesterday...

Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Bud (EP022012)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
662. yoboi
Quoting MrMixon:


^^ Now that's some good ol' fashioned irony right there!

Could you ask that question in two lines please?

Splitting one sentence...

...into two lines doesn't count.

I don't know who you're talking about. I'm pretty sure every single post I +'d today has more than one line. But you know, on second thought - don't bother rephrasing your one-liner gotcha question. It's borderline "bickering" anyway... which is against the rules here.

Regardless, I'm flattered that you choose to track who I plus.

Now back to the weather (cue Jaws theme):




your welcome i look at all things and see a trend....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:



go to his site he says things alot differ than i see on here....and other people from nasa support him so to me i am confused...


He _does_ say a lot of things.
Most of which aren't actually supported by any sort of thorough review of the data-- it's much more of a 'what-could-be-true-if-you-focus-on-just-this-data set-and-ignore-the-other-dozen-that-disprove-the-h ypothesis', or 'what-would-be-true-if-you-start-from-bad-or-movin g-assumptions'. Neither of those is the hallmark of good science in practice.
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
660. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST November 28 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Chuuk

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (998 hPa) located at 4.7N 154.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 4.9N 151.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Chuuk region
45 HRS: 5.3N 147.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island
69 HRS: 6.1N 143.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Island

Additional Information
=======================
Bopha will accelerate westward for the next 72 hours

Bopha will be upgraded to severe tropical storm within 24 hours

Cyclone will develop because it will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.5 after 24 hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:



then why do you always add a to the one-liner king???


^^ Now that's some good ol' fashioned irony right there!

Could you ask that question in two lines please?

Splitting one sentence...

...into two lines doesn't count.

I don't know who you're talking about. I'm pretty sure every single post I 'd today has more than one line. But you know, on second thought - don't bother rephrasing your one-liner gotcha question. It's borderline "bickering" anyway... which is against the rules here.

Regardless, I'm flattered that you choose to track who I plus.

Now back to the weather (cue Jaws theme):





(EDITED to switch from the animation to the static water vapor image because it was killing my computer to scroll through the blog. Sorry folks if it was hitting you the same way. You can now click the static water vapor image above if you want the animation)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


nice to hear that from you, thanks..


That is really first class. I made it BIG and checked everything out, well done, thanks.

Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2515
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE.. 7:50 PM EST UPDATED
______________________

MAJOR CALIFORNIA STORM

about the map
if you make the pic bigger...there is the overlap from rain (green to yellow) snow (gray to pink) and the over dashed colors, the brown dashed shade and the yellow dashed shade those are for different wind gust potential.. siting on top of the snow/and on top of the rain.

It took me nearly 3 hours to do this map for you guys...




click on pic for bigger view

May I ask how u make that kinda graphic? (BTW good job)
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3628
656. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:
@ Yoboi #650:

It's not the PDO, no matter how much Roy Spencer wishes it were so.



go to his site he says things alot differ than i see on here....and other people from nasa support him so to me i am confused...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow.....those rainfall forecast are serious for northern cali! when is the last time rainfall of that magnitude happened there? what is this going to do to the sacremento valley, Ive seen those it could happen senarios on TWC, how much rainfall would if take for that to happen?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@ Yoboi #650:

It's not the PDO, no matter how much Roy Spencer wishes it were so.
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
Quoting schistkicker:



There, fixed it for ya.

Sorry I liked it the way it was. Thanks, but no thanks.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Beautiful graphic again! I know you belted out a few during the tropical season but this one is up there too. Sure looking to be wild up there. Great news for the skiers like myself and oldest two daughters. Just hope it sticks around by the time I go up there for a trip later this season!!!!


nice to hear that from you, thanks..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Quoting AussieStorm:
Lets grab our peer-reviewed data and our scientific methods and lets all chase the climate change deniers out of this blog and let it get back to harmonia.



There, fixed it for ya.
Member Since: June 13, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
650. yoboi
Global Warming
“Global warming” refers to the global-average temperature increase that has been observed over the last one hundred years or more. But to many politicians and the public, the term carries the implication that mankind is responsible for that warming. This website describes evidence from my group’s government-funded research that suggests global warming is mostly natural, and that the climate system is quite insensitive to humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions and aerosol pollution.

Believe it or not, very little research has ever been funded to search for natural mechanisms of warming…it has simply been assumed that global warming is manmade. This assumption is rather easy for scientists since we do not have enough accurate global data for a long enough period of time to see whether there are natural warming mechanisms at work.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that the only way they can get their computerized climate models to produce the observed warming is with anthropogenic (human-caused) pollution. But they’re not going to find something if they don’t search for it. More than one scientist has asked me, “What else COULD it be?” Well, the answer to that takes a little digging… and as I show, one doesn’t have to dig very far.

But first let’s examine the basics of why so many scientists think global warming is manmade. Earth’s atmosphere contains natural greenhouse gases (mostly water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane) which act to keep the lower layers of the atmosphere warmer than they otherwise would be without those gases. Greenhouse gases trap infrared radiation — the radiant heat energy that the Earth naturally emits to outer space in response to solar heating. Mankind’s burning of fossil fuels (mostly coal, petroleum, and natural gas) releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and this is believed to be enhancing the Earth’s natural greenhouse effect. As of 2008, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was about 40% to 45% higher than it was before the start of the industrial revolution in the 1800’s.

It is interesting to note that, even though carbon dioxide is necessary for life on Earth to exist, there is precious little of it in Earth’s atmosphere. As of 2008, only 39 out of every 100,000 molecules of air were CO2, and it will take mankind’s CO2 emissions 5 more years to increase that number by 1, to 40.

The “Holy Grail”: Climate Sensitivity Figuring out how much past warming is due to mankind, and how much more we can expect in the future, depends upon something called “climate sensitivity”. This is the temperature response of the Earth to a given amount of ‘radiative forcing’, of which there are two kinds: a change in either the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth, or in the infrared energy the Earth emits to outer space.

The ‘consensus’ of opinion is that the Earth’s climate sensitivity is quite high, and so warming of about 0.25 deg. C to 0.5 deg. C (about 0.5 deg. F to 0.9 deg. F) every 10 years can be expected for as long as mankind continues to use fossil fuels as our primary source of energy. NASA’s James Hansen claims that climate sensitivity is very high, and that we have already put too much extra CO2 in the atmosphere. Presumably this is why he and Al Gore are campaigning for a moratorium on the construction of any more coal-fired power plants in the U.S.

You would think that we’d know the Earth’s ‘climate sensitivity’ by now, but it has been surprisingly difficult to determine. How atmospheric processes like clouds and precipitation systems respond to warming is critical, as they are either amplifying the warming, or reducing it. This website currently concentrates on the response of clouds to warming, an issue which I am now convinced the scientific community has totally misinterpreted when they have measured natural, year-to-year fluctuations in the climate system. As a result of that confusion, they have the mistaken belief that climate sensitivity is high, when in fact the satellite evidence suggests climate sensitivity is low.

The case for natural climate change I also present an analysis of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which shows that most climate change might well be the result of….the climate system itself! Because small, chaotic fluctuations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems can cause small changes in global average cloudiness, this is all that is necessary to cause climate change. You don’t need the sun, or any other ‘external’ influence (although these are also possible…but for now I’ll let others work on that). It is simply what the climate system does. This is actually quite easy for meteorologists to believe, since we understand how complex weather processes are. Your local TV meteorologist is probably a closet ’skeptic’ regarding mankind’s influence on climate.

Climate change — it happens, with or without our help.




is any of this true???? asking because i don't know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lets grab our pitch forks and our fire stakes and lets all chase the climate change deniers out of this blog and let it get back to harmonia.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
647. yoboi
Quoting MrMixon:


In my experience people shout down and insult eachother wherever a free forum is provided on the internet. Apparently this is the way humans interact when they aren't sitting face to face (and even sometimes when they are).

When folks come here and post anti-science stuff or insinuate that Dr. Masters is part of some grand conspiracy... well, I'm not sure what you'd expect.

If someone posts verifiable data that runs contrary to something Dr. Masters says (I've seen it happen) I think it is generally acknowledged and appreciated by the "pro-science" crowd as well as Dr. Masters himself. But coming here with one-liner "gotcha" questions and links to blogs of dubious distinction provokes a strong reaction because, well, there is a limit to everyone's patience...

Honestly, anti-AGW folks are generally "shouted down" with things like reports and charts and data. I have trouble feeling too sorry for people who make statements beyond their expertise and get corrected for it. That's the way the world works.



then why do you always add a + to the one-liner king???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE.. 7:50 PM EST UPDATED
______________________

MAJOR CALIFORNIA STORM

about the map
if you make the pic bigger...there is the overlap from rain (green to yellow) snow (gray to pink) and the over dashed colors, the brown dashed shade and the yellow dashed shade those are for different wind gust potential.. siting on top of the snow/and on top of the rain.

It took me nearly 3 hours to do this map for you guys...




click on pic for bigger view
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
644. etxwx
Good evening all...no news to report from the passage of the front last evening in E. Texas. No wind, no rain, no winter storms...so I'll just move on to the cute and fuzzy critter news:


Ice Age warmth wiped out lemmings, study finds
By Michelle Warwicker BBC Nature 26 November 2012

Excerpt: Lemmings became "regionally extinct" five times due to rapid climate change during the last Ice Age, scientists have found. Each extinction was followed by a re-colonisation of genetically different lemmings, according to the study. The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the Natural Academy of Sciences, found that these "regional extinctions" occurred during periods of rapid warming within the last Ice Age.

Scientists suggest such climate fluctuations may have left lemmings unable to adapt to the changes in the vegetation they relied on as a food source. Although Belgium's lemmings were able to re-colonise after each regional extinction, the population lost much of its genetic diversity during this pattern of events.

The team focused on lemmings as indicators of what may have happened to other land mammal populations during the last Ice Age. Since such small mammals would not have been hunted by humans, the discovery of this decrease in population size shows that there was a "general pattern of instability" in both large and small mammals during the Late Pleistocene.

According to the study, this pattern supports the theory that environmental changes, rather than human predation, were the main cause of the demise of megafauna in Europe at the end of the last Ice Age.


The complete article can be found here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
there are few people on earth for whom i have more pity than those who blatantly deny reality and are made fun of for it. the poor, poor dears. hold your heads high, i say! don't let the real world and it's 'actual things' and 'happenings' and 'science' get you down.

as to coming back with anything productive, as has been pointed out earlier, you still haven't coughed up a lick of actual data or science to back up your earlier statement about temperature, and i and others have asked you numerous times.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

I know. Ain't it the sad truth. But you keep your head high and deal with it and be tough. Don't let the intimidation and name calling bruise you. Afterall, it's a reflection upon the attacker's credibility and character when this happens. And it exposes their weaknesses and/or agenda. Experience tells me that those who cross the line to engage in this type of behavior (like in the comment above #636) do so because they are usually too emotional and often outsmarted, and they know it. They can't come back with anything productive, so they attack and do anything they can to undermines another.

Cest la vie.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 676
Quoting AussieStorm:

So your saying is that people that deny climate change is happening don't get shouted down and insulted on here... mega LOL.


In my experience people shout down and insult eachother wherever a free forum is provided on the internet. Apparently this is the way humans interact when they aren't sitting face to face (and even sometimes when they are).

When folks come here and post anti-science stuff or insinuate that Dr. Masters is part of some grand conspiracy... well, I'm not sure what you'd expect.

If someone posts verifiable data that runs contrary to something Dr. Masters says (I've seen it happen) I think it is generally acknowledged and appreciated by the "pro-science" crowd as well as Dr. Masters himself. But coming here with one-liner "gotcha" questions and links to blogs of dubious distinction provokes a strong reaction because, well, there is a limit to everyone's patience...

Honestly, anti-AGW folks are generally "shouted down" with things like reports and charts and data. I have trouble feeling too sorry for people who make statements beyond their expertise and get corrected for it. That's the way the world works.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
640. beell
Is this a fair comparison? If so, how accurate would you rate the 8-14 Day Temperature Outlooks taken at 4 day intervals?

(Click any graphic for full image)


Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 10/24-Valid 11/01 through 11/07.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/01 through 11/07.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 10/28-Valid 11/05 through 11/11.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/05 through 11/11.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/01-Valid 11/09 through 11/15.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/09 through 11/15.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/05-Valid 11/13 through 11/19.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/13 through 11/19.



Left: CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook Issued 11/09-Valid 11/17 through 11/23.
Right: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-Surface Temperature Anomaly 11/17 through 11/23.


NCEP/NCAR Daily Composites
CPC 6-10 & 8-14 Day Data & Graphics Archive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
639. Skyepony (Mod)
LONDON — British police say they found the body of an elderly woman in a flooded home, as hundreds of Britons struggle to contain damage done by the recent wet weather.

North Wales Police said emergency rescue workers discovered the body Tuesday in the Welsh city of St Asaph, where the swollen river Elwy has surged through flood defenses. The death is being treated as unexplained.

Fire service workers have rescued people trapped in their homes by flood water and hundreds have been urged to flee their homes across the country as sustained wet weather kept many areas of Britain under water.

The Environmental Agency warned there is a continued risk of flooding across England, despite a drop in rainfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The blob near the Yucatan is still looking pretty good. I wonder if it may try something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see people quoting the "TinBallTX" poster....

I presume that most know that he is one of the "Jeffs"
who was "permanently banned" and has returned to spread disinformation and discord.

Every post he makes is a violation of the ban circumvention rule.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
635. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

So your saying is that people that deny climate change is happening don't get shouted down and insulted on here... mega LOL.



he won't use the bucket to bail that much i know...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some webcam softwareapps maintain a web-available archive of time-stamped images that can be linked to as an image source. Or you could simply use screen capture software to take a snap, then upload it to a public server...

Great picture, by the way...


Thanks! These cams are on wunderground... I'm guessing there isn't a way to access their archive via wunderground's interface. I can watch movies for the past 24 hours, but there doesn't seem to be a way to access individual frames from those movies. I'll have to check the pages for the individual cams to see if they have external pages which provide archives.

For general usage I'll have to set up some easy method to store a snapshot online and host it back out for linking. I just want it to be a fairly quick process or I know I won't do it... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, Dr. Masters also writes blog entries on climate change even when there is other weather news--but that's mostly because a) he understands that there isn't a single weather event happening today that isn't effected by the changing climate, and b) there's really no more profound or important thing to talk about than the greatest threat modern civilization has ever faced.

(FWIW, and as Mr. Mixon noted, none of us here are "pro climate change". In fact, most of us are very much against it. A group of oncologists may get together to discuss their specialty, but that doesn't mean they're "pro cancer". Likewise, a bunch of police officers talking shop at a law enforcement convention aren't "pro crime". Just so you know...)

So your saying is that people that deny climate change is happening don't get shouted down and insulted on here... mega LOL.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting MrMixon:
Does anyone know how to link to a static "snapshot" from a webcam? In other words, I would like to structure the link to point to a webcam image from a particular time. Currently when I link to a webcam it always shows only the latest image from that cam.
Some webcam softwareapps maintain a web-available archive of time-stamped images that can be linked to as an image source. Or you could simply use screen capture software to take a snap, then upload it to a public server...

Great picture, by the way...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455
Gorgeous sunset here tonight. These webcams don't do it justice, but they give you an idea:





PS - Does anyone know how to link to a static "snapshot" from a webcam? In other words, I would like to structure the link to point to a webcam image from a particular time. Currently when I link to a webcam it always shows only the latest image from that cam.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

If you haven't noticed, the whole blog is pro-climate change, including Dr Masters. Yes there is a separate blog for climate change but Dr Masters writes blogs on climate change when there is no weather news or topics.
Well, Dr. Masters also writes blog entries on climate change even when there is other weather news--but that's mostly because a) he understands that there isn't a single weather event happening today that isn't effected by the changing climate, and b) there's really no more profound or important thing to talk about than the greatest threat modern civilization has ever faced.

(FWIW, and as Mr. Mixon noted, none of us here are "pro climate change". In fact, most of us are very much against it. A group of oncologists may get together to discuss their specialty, but that doesn't mean they're "pro cancer". Likewise, a bunch of police officers talking shop at a law enforcement convention aren't "pro crime". Just so you know...)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13455

Viewing: 680 - 630

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.