Damaging Katrina-level storm surges are twice as likely in warm years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:22 PM GMT on November 26, 2012

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Perhaps the most stunning images in the wake of Hurricane Sandy were the sight of the roller coaster from the Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, New Jersey lying in the Atlantic Ocean. The images reminded us that hurricane storm surges are capable of causing tremendous destruction along the coast, and one of the main concerns on how global warming might affect hurricanes is the potential for stronger hurricanes to create larger storm surges. We expect that global warming should make the strongest hurricanes stronger, since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the ocean and converts it to wind energy. These stronger winds will be capable of piling up higher storm surges. However, it is controversial whether or not we have observed an increase in the strongest hurricanes, since hurricane winds are hard to observe. Our long-term hurricane data base is generally too low in quality and covers too short a period of time to make very good estimates of how climate change may be affecting hurricane winds. However, a new 2012 paper, "Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923" by Grinsted et al., looked at storm surge data from six tide gauges along the U.S. coast from Texas to New Jersey, and concluded that the number of moderately large hurricane and tropical storm surge events has increased since 1923. Moderately large storm surge events are on pace to nearly double by the year 2100, compared to 20th century levels. Moreover, 1-in-9 year to 1-in-30 year Katrina-level storm surge events are twice as likely to occur in warm years compared to cool years, and thus global warming may be able to dramatically increase the frequency of highly damaging extreme storm surge events. Since sea level is steadily rising due to global warming, these future storm surges will also be riding in on top of an elevated ocean surface, and will thus be able to do even greater damage than in the past. Expect to see many more shocking storm surge damage photos in the coming decades, unless we wise up, retreat from areas highly vulnerable to storm surge, and invest in increased shoreline protection measures.


Figure 1. The Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, N.J. taken during a search and rescue mission by 1-150 Assault Helicopter Battalion, New Jersey Army National Guard on Oct. 30, 2012. Image credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen.


Figure 2. Top: Observed long-term frequency of moderately large storm surge events from hurricanes and tropical storms measured at six tide gauges along the U.S. East Coast (inset map). The thick line is a 5-year moving average. These type of surge events occurred an average of 5.4 times/year between 1923 - 2008, and are on pace to increase to 9.5 events per year by 2100. Bottom: Departure of Earth's annual mean surface temperature from average, shaded to show warmer and colder than median temperatures. Large storm surge events increase in probability during warmer than average years. Image credit: Grinsted et al. 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923."

Using storm surge to evaluate damage normalization studies
Damage from landfalling storms can be used to estimate if hurricanes are growing stronger with time, but damage estimates must first be corrected to account for changes in wealth and population over time. A 2008 study by Pielke et al. found that although hurricane damages had been doubling every ten years in recent decades, there were no increases in normalized hurricane damages in the U.S. from 1900 - 2005. They used census and economic data to adjust for how increases in populations and wealth may have affected hurricane damages over time. However, Grinsted et al. (2012) questioned whether or not this was done correctly. They found that storm surge heights of U.S. hurricanes and tropical storms correlated very well with metrics that looked at storm intensity, when looking at many decades of data to see long-term trends. However, the researchers found that while short-term trends in normalized hurricane damage estimated by Pielke et al. (2008) did correlate well historical storm surges, these normalized damages had poor correlation with the storm surge record, when looking at decades-long time scales. This implies that the corrections were biased. Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Western Australia makes the case that efforts such as the one done by Pielke et al. (2008) to normalize disaster losses are probably biased too low, since they only look at factors that tend to increase disaster losses with time, but ignore factors that tend to decrease disaster losses. These ignored factors include improvements in building codes, better weather forecasts allowing more preparation time, and improved fire-fighting ability. He writes, "Most normalization research to date has not accounted for those variables because they are extremely difficult to quantify. (And most researchers have been at pains to point that out; e.g., Neumayer & Barthel, 2011, pp. 23-24.) In effect, normalization research to date largely rests on the oddly inconsistent pair of assumptions that (a) we have built up enormous wealth during the 20th century but (b) did so without any technological advance whatsoever." Grinsted et al. (2012) suggest that it may be possible to use their storm surge data to correct biased hurricane damage estimates, though. Take home message: studies showing no increase in normalized damage from storms have high uncertainty, and it is possible that higher economic damages due to stronger hurricanes are indeed occurring.

References
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109

Pielke et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005", Natural Hazards Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42.

Links
In this remarkable home video, 15-year-old Christofer Sochacki captures the evening high tide on the day Superstorm Sandy struck Union Beach, New Jersey. The later part of the video shows how high waves on top of a 8-foot storm surge can lead to a punishing assault on beach-front structures.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Some of that is attributable to increased technology that was unavailable a couple decades ago.


thanks Kori..
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Some of that is attributable to increased technology that was unavailable a couple decades ago.
our satellites were capable of detecting all tropical activity anywhere in the world back in 1992 Kori...Rollin fat tonight?..lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



look at these past three seasons...they are the top 3 third highest in tropical activity...

stunning


Some of that is attributable to increased technology that was unavailable a couple decades ago.
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Quoting hydrus:
Well the hyperactivity started in 1995. It usually lasts 30 or 40 years, then things wind down for about the same length of time. The thing is that the worlds climate is changing at such a rapid pace, the historical data from the past 150 years or so will have no statistical value...I have said it here before that statistics are only numbers that have no control over actual events.



look at these past three seasons...they are the top 3 third highest in tropical activity...

stunning
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Quoting hydrus:
By all means...Whats happening besides the MJO bein wimpy..:)

W.A is getting smacked by a very deep LPA.




Loop


Loop

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


do you think the active phase would end?
Well the hyperactivity started in 1995. It usually lasts 30 or 40 years, then things wind down for about the same length of time. The thing is that the worlds climate is changing at such a rapid pace, the historical data from the past 150 years or so will have no statistical value...I have said it here before that statistics are only numbers that have no control over actual events.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
Quoting hydrus:
i believe one day they will start our season May-15, and possibly include Dec-15. Even though we are in the active phase, year after year with so many storms could be a sign of things to come. The seasons should slow again, only to pick up more steam the next active phase. Do not know if I will be around long enough to find out..:)


do you think the active phase would end?
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someone can't wait 'til the season is over...2 AM TWO (now its the 1 AM TWO) is out...was out at midnight
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Is the blog at peace now?
Is it safe to come out of my hiding hole? lol
By all means...Whats happening besides the MJO bein wimpy..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is the blog at peace now?
Is it safe to come out of my hiding hole? lol


No... until Feb 2...
don't look behind you when you come out though....lol
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Is the blog at peace now?
Is it safe to come out of my hiding hole? lol
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
well. 2 days left of hurricane season 2012
i believe one day they will start our season May-15, and possibly include Dec-15. Even though we are in the active phase, year after year with so many storms could be a sign of things to come. The seasons should slow again, only to pick up more steam the next active phase. Do not know if I will be around long enough to find out..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON



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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
well. 2 days left of hurricane season 2012


It went by so fast.
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well. 2 days left of hurricane season 2012
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WINTER WEATHER UPDATE- Beyond the graphics
_____________________________

Hi everyone...My name is Max. I will become 20 this upcoming December and as you all know my passion is weather like many of us. Weather down into a graphic is the best thing I enjoy doing. I have done many graphics since 2006... but until this year I began publishing them here.

How do I gather the info displayed on the graphic?
Well, I go (most of the times) to NWS websites and from there I look at cities potentially affected by a upcoming storm from there I draw the line for possible impacts. The closer to potential damager the higher levels of weather they take under the color shading.

Just like this upcoming storm...places under yellow and pink are places for the most severe whether...also those under the dashed lines.

Remember...the shades are not 100% sure for happening but it is the best estimate I can come up with.
After I gather all info (sometimes also rom TWC) I put it down into a nice graphic...
I always try to make it look pretty (not just a dull 5 minute worth of time graphic) and most importantly...UNDERSTANDABLE FOR ALL OF YOU.

Also during the hurricane season I try to stay nice and understandable because the graph is not just for me to understand for for all the other interested fellas here.

I will keep going all through this winter posting graphic on potential winter storms until the next hurricane season begins and so on...I appreciate all the nice comments from you...


LOVE YOU ALL...


see it on my blog here
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think we have enough lows...





Well there's going to be even fewer soon since the GFS has them merging into one tidy continent-sized package by mid-Thursday...

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Talking about the roller coaster... I've read the following in several sources picking from AP:
"The mayor last week told a TV station that the coaster would make a “great tourist attraction.”
But the mayor now says that “was not the brightest comment.”"

I don't tend to criticize elected officials statements... but, what was he thinking? Was he sure it wasn't a bright comment? Besides the obvious quick decay from rusting and the several equally "bright" people who will try to swim and claim to the coaster, I was there a few days ago (is part of my job) and it is obvious that there are parts of the coaster that are weak and will collapse as soon as it rust a little bit more. In any case, is he really interested in promoting tourism based on tragedy? May be something is going on in NJ that end up developing a new human species that tend to appear in MTV but I don't really get this at all...
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Quoting Dakster:


Even though I do not live on the west coast US, that is a great map and I enjoyed looking at it.


I don't live on the west coast either but the fact that it is a big storm...encourages me to make a nice graph out of it...and thanks though
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711. beell
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Evening, Aug, just got back in.

All in all, not too bad.

8-14 day on 10/24 verified pretty well.

10/28, possibly missed the mean position of the trough. Warm ridge/cold trough ended up farther east?
11/01, looks like a fail.
11/05, missed the cold anomaly over the Gulf Coast and SE and the warmer temps in the NW. Some might consider that a fail
11/09, pretty darn accurate.

Later.

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Quoting allancalderini:
they did the same with a system at the middle of November that stay cold core all the way didn`t even became an invest.


ohh I see. But the models can't just play cool like that
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


why...two of the best models are there?

is it because it's to far out in time?
they did the same with a system at the middle of November that stay cold core all the way didn`t even became an invest.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The ECMWF, CMC, and GFS all have Valerie in the East Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in about 5 days. I refuse to trust them though.


why...two of the best models are there?

is it because it's to far out in time?
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Quoting hurricane23:


Under extreme conditions just to its north 80/90kt westerlies. Maybe a slight increase in moisture across mainland sfl.


Yes, but they are expected to decrease to 70/80kts.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thank you...I'm happy you did


Nice map, tr. Looks like a lot of heavy wind.
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UPDATE

San Francisco high winds..click pic for bigger view


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The ECMWF, CMC, and GFS all have Valerie in the East Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in about 5 days. I refuse to trust them though.
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I don't think we have enough lows...

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New York's Hudson River Valley is about to close out one of it's driest Novembers on record, but the drought monitor doesn't seem too impressed yet. Of the three main NWS sites across the mid to upper Hudson Valley, two will likely see their diest November on record, and the other is currently ranked 4th on record.


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oh dear...this is no good for places ahead like Philippines
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Quoting indianrivguy:


That is really first class. I made it BIG and checked everything out, well done, thanks.



thank you....it's worth the time spent doing it for these great feedbacks
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Quoting Doppler22:

May I ask how u make that kinda graphic? (BTW good job)


hi...back from work...

Well I use photoshop to do it...it takes me a while to make it look good like that then I take it to powerpoint to put up the heading, side boxes, scales and all the other little features
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Quoting Dakster:


Even though I do not live on the west coast US, that is a great map and I enjoyed looking at it.


thank you...I'm happy you did
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Still lookihng sloppy. The mid-level and low-level centers aren't quite aligned.



Why does that sound familiar?

Guessing the trade winds are quite high being close to the equator.
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694. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
JTWC is up to 50kts. Peak intensity now is 110kts.


** WTPQ20 BABJ 280000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS BOPHA 1224 (1224) INITIAL TIME 280000 UTC
00HR 4.8N 154.2E 998HPA 20M/S
30KTS 200KM
P12HR W 15KM/H
P+24HR 4.5N 151.2E 992HPA 25M/S
P+48HR 4.8N 147.7E 985HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 5.3N 143.9E 975HPA 35M/S
P+96HR 6.5N 140.1E 970HPA 38M/S
P+120HR 7.8N 136.5E 965HPA 40M/S=

---
still sitting at 80 knots (2 min sustained winds average) for 120 hours forecast period.

someone is going to be wrong.
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Still lookihng sloppy. The mid-level and low-level centers aren't quite aligned.

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JTWC is up to 50kts. Peak intensity now is 110kts.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 4.7N 154.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.7N 154.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 4.9N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 5.0N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 5.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 5.3N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 6.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 7.8N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 9.6N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 4.8N 154.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN
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BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi 2m
@RyanMaue has developed cfsv2 site on http://weatherbell.com that will show max snow cover.4 members Christmas week pic.twitter.com/ev2mB3en

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Quoting AussieStorm:

Looks like someone is going to get rain from your Blob.
I will be looking for mudders after the past performances come in tomorrow.
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Quoting Grothar:


I declared that a blob last night. Keep up with the program, Skye. :)


Looks like someone is going to get rain from your Blob.
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Quoting Grothar:


Under extreme conditions just to its north 80/90kt westerlies. Maybe a slight increase in moisture across mainland sfl.
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**** BREAKING NEWS ****


For the first time in 36 years, Tolbachik in Russia is erupting according to reports from Russia. KVERT, the volcano monitoring body for Kamchatka, released a bulletin describing a significant explosive eruption with the potential for ash explosions up to 10 km / 32,800 ft. With the many air routes across the northern Pacific, this eruption will need to be closely monitored for its impact on air travel over the eastern Siberian peninsula. The ash advisory from the Tokyo VAAC also mentions a report of ash at FL 330 (33,000 feet) that was spreading to the NNW. VolcanoDiscovery reported that seismicity had been creeping upwards around Tolbachik since at least early November as well. Trying to get information from some of the hastily-translated articles from Russia is, ahem, fun. One described the eruption as the “volcano’s top caldera is being filled with fresh and gushing lava” based on incandescence seen at the summit.


The last eruption of Tolbachik started in 1975 and was quite impressive, rating at least a VEI 4 with both explosive and effusive activity. However, that was a larger eruption than most over the last century at the Russian volcano and most are smaller VEI 2 eruptions. Interestingly, the 1975-76 was a mainly basaltic eruption (see above), the largest recorded in the northern Kamchatka peninsula — however, that activity did produce 13 km / 42,000 foot ash plumes as well during the creation of a series of cinder cones and a 15 square kilometer lava flow field.

Unfortunately, today’s passes by the Terra and Aqua satellite didn’t capture any plume – likely because the pass was too early, but some of the peninsula is obscured by clouds as well. However, this (Below) 2004 NASA Earth Observatory image shows the summit caldera at Tolbachik and its relative proximity to its more famous brethren, Bezymianny and Kliuchevskoi.



VONA/Kamchatkan and Northern Kuriles Volcanic Activity

Volcano: Plosky Tolbachik (CAVW #1000-24-)

Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Previous Aviation Color Code: orange

Issued: 20121127/2321Z
Source: KVERT
Notice Number: 2012-21

Volcano Location: 55.83 N, 160.39 E
Area: Kamchatka, Russia
Summit Elevation: 10118.8 ft (3085 m)

Prognosis of Volcanic Activity: Explosive eruption of the volcano began on November 27. Ash explosions up to 32,800 ft (10 km) a.s.l. could occur at any time. Ongoing activity could affect international and low-flying aircraft.

Volcanic Activity Summary: According to the data by observers from Kozyrevsk and Lazo Villadges, ash explosions and lava flows are noting at Tolbachinsky Dol, at the area of 1975 Severny Proryv (Northern vents) eruption. Probably a lava intrusions towards the summit caldera of Plosky Tolbachik volcano too but the volcano obscured by clouds at now. Ash fall was noted at Krasny Yar (35 km from Klyuchi Village to the west): a thickness of ash was about 4 cm.


Volcanic cloud height: no the data.

Other volcanic cloud information: no the data.

Remarks:

Additional information: Plosky Tolbachik and Ostry Tolbachik volcanoes compose a single large volcanic massif. The 1800 m diameter caldera with a depth of 450 m that has been formed in 1975 is nested at the summit of Plosky Tolbachik. Tolbachik volcano is located in the south-western sector of the Klyuchevskaya group of the volcanoes 63 km from Klyuchi and 343 km from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
Last eruption occurred on: 1975/6/28-1976/12/10
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Quoting Skyepony:
Click pic for loop..
Heavens to Murgatroyd!! What's that? I was planning on going to Gulfstream on Saturday for opening day.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Click pic for loop..


I declared that a blob last night. Keep up with the program, Skye. :)

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683. yoboi
Quoting schistkicker:


Actually, since global temperatures are rising when other natural processes would tend toward cooling temperatures, multiple recent studies attribute more than 100% of the observed warming to human activities.
Link



why was co2 levels lower pre use of catalytic converters???? that confuses me...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
Quoting yoboi:


in that link they say that Gw has a finger print caused by humans does that mean a small amount is caused by humans?


Actually, since global temperatures are rising when other natural processes would tend toward cooling temperatures, multiple recent studies attribute more than 100% of the observed warming to human activities.
Link
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680. Skyepony (Mod)
Click pic for loop..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37496

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.