Damaging Katrina-level storm surges are twice as likely in warm years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:22 PM GMT on November 26, 2012

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Perhaps the most stunning images in the wake of Hurricane Sandy were the sight of the roller coaster from the Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, New Jersey lying in the Atlantic Ocean. The images reminded us that hurricane storm surges are capable of causing tremendous destruction along the coast, and one of the main concerns on how global warming might affect hurricanes is the potential for stronger hurricanes to create larger storm surges. We expect that global warming should make the strongest hurricanes stronger, since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the ocean and converts it to wind energy. These stronger winds will be capable of piling up higher storm surges. However, it is controversial whether or not we have observed an increase in the strongest hurricanes, since hurricane winds are hard to observe. Our long-term hurricane data base is generally too low in quality and covers too short a period of time to make very good estimates of how climate change may be affecting hurricane winds. However, a new 2012 paper, "Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923" by Grinsted et al., looked at storm surge data from six tide gauges along the U.S. coast from Texas to New Jersey, and concluded that the number of moderately large hurricane and tropical storm surge events has increased since 1923. Moderately large storm surge events are on pace to nearly double by the year 2100, compared to 20th century levels. Moreover, 1-in-9 year to 1-in-30 year Katrina-level storm surge events are twice as likely to occur in warm years compared to cool years, and thus global warming may be able to dramatically increase the frequency of highly damaging extreme storm surge events. Since sea level is steadily rising due to global warming, these future storm surges will also be riding in on top of an elevated ocean surface, and will thus be able to do even greater damage than in the past. Expect to see many more shocking storm surge damage photos in the coming decades, unless we wise up, retreat from areas highly vulnerable to storm surge, and invest in increased shoreline protection measures.


Figure 1. The Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, N.J. taken during a search and rescue mission by 1-150 Assault Helicopter Battalion, New Jersey Army National Guard on Oct. 30, 2012. Image credit: U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Mark C. Olsen.


Figure 2. Top: Observed long-term frequency of moderately large storm surge events from hurricanes and tropical storms measured at six tide gauges along the U.S. East Coast (inset map). The thick line is a 5-year moving average. These type of surge events occurred an average of 5.4 times/year between 1923 - 2008, and are on pace to increase to 9.5 events per year by 2100. Bottom: Departure of Earth's annual mean surface temperature from average, shaded to show warmer and colder than median temperatures. Large storm surge events increase in probability during warmer than average years. Image credit: Grinsted et al. 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923."

Using storm surge to evaluate damage normalization studies
Damage from landfalling storms can be used to estimate if hurricanes are growing stronger with time, but damage estimates must first be corrected to account for changes in wealth and population over time. A 2008 study by Pielke et al. found that although hurricane damages had been doubling every ten years in recent decades, there were no increases in normalized hurricane damages in the U.S. from 1900 - 2005. They used census and economic data to adjust for how increases in populations and wealth may have affected hurricane damages over time. However, Grinsted et al. (2012) questioned whether or not this was done correctly. They found that storm surge heights of U.S. hurricanes and tropical storms correlated very well with metrics that looked at storm intensity, when looking at many decades of data to see long-term trends. However, the researchers found that while short-term trends in normalized hurricane damage estimated by Pielke et al. (2008) did correlate well historical storm surges, these normalized damages had poor correlation with the storm surge record, when looking at decades-long time scales. This implies that the corrections were biased. Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky of the University of Western Australia makes the case that efforts such as the one done by Pielke et al. (2008) to normalize disaster losses are probably biased too low, since they only look at factors that tend to increase disaster losses with time, but ignore factors that tend to decrease disaster losses. These ignored factors include improvements in building codes, better weather forecasts allowing more preparation time, and improved fire-fighting ability. He writes, "Most normalization research to date has not accounted for those variables because they are extremely difficult to quantify. (And most researchers have been at pains to point that out; e.g., Neumayer & Barthel, 2011, pp. 23-24.) In effect, normalization research to date largely rests on the oddly inconsistent pair of assumptions that (a) we have built up enormous wealth during the 20th century but (b) did so without any technological advance whatsoever." Grinsted et al. (2012) suggest that it may be possible to use their storm surge data to correct biased hurricane damage estimates, though. Take home message: studies showing no increase in normalized damage from storms have high uncertainty, and it is possible that higher economic damages due to stronger hurricanes are indeed occurring.

References
Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923," PNAS 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1209542109

Pielke et al., 2008, "Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005", Natural Hazards Review, Volume 9, Issue 1, pp. 29-42.

Links
In this remarkable home video, 15-year-old Christofer Sochacki captures the evening high tide on the day Superstorm Sandy struck Union Beach, New Jersey. The later part of the video shows how high waves on top of a 8-foot storm surge can lead to a punishing assault on beach-front structures.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wxchaser97:

But it has been proven that you can't really multitask. I am going back and forth between HW and WU.

Oh, so I can't breathe and type at the same time. I don't know that...thanks!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Multitasking.

But it has been proven that you can't really multitask. I am going back and forth between HW and WU.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


What are you doing here then??

Multitasking.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I don't live in the mid-Atlantic, so...


Exactly. So now you know.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well I don't live in the mid-Atlantic, so...

You live in the south, kinda tucked away.
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Quoting wxgeek723:
Just for future geographical reference, most people in the Mid Atlantic consider the region part of the Northeast. When we have events like Irene and Sandy, people on the blog tend to treat them like separate regions.

Northeast = Mid Atlantic + New England


Well I don't live in the mid-Atlantic, so...
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Just for future geographical reference, most people that live in the Mid Atlantic consider the region part of the Northeast. When we have events like Irene and Sandy, people on the blog tend to treat them like separate regions.

Northeast = Mid Atlantic New England
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Quoting Allan012:



I can see why Michigan ranks low in the Best Educated Index chart, while NC is higher in the blue...



Why am I not surprised my state is #45? >_>
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Quoting yqt1001:


You know that procrastination makes school work better right?

I'm procrastinating with a little of my homework right now...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh please, you go to a regular high school. The work there isn't bad. Come talk to me when you've got three presentations, two projects, two essays, a persuasive speech, and a ton of other, smaller homework and class assignments due on Friday. :/


What are you doing here then??
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James Spann  ‏@spann
Hey weather weenies… the weekly show all about weather is live now! Watch WeatherBrains: http://live.bigbrainsmedia.com
or here
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I remember seasons. There were four of them. Fall was gorgeous in Virginia! I remember diving into piles of maple leaves. A few months later building snow forts. Planting flowers in the spring. And the playground and basketball court all summer. :)

Now I live in Texas. Ah Texas. Lol. A friend sent this to me.


I lived in Fort Worth, Texas for half my life. You'd melt in the Summer, get blown away by winds in the Fall, get buried in over a foot of snow in the Winter, and wrestle with tornadoes and hail in the Spring.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No and no. Thanks for considering me though, Kori! ;)


You know that procrastination makes school work better right?
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Quoting txjac:


Fall is the season to step back and look at nature in all of it's glory ...time where the leaves turn gorgeous color ...waking up to frost in the morning ...time to sit back and meditate

Of course none of this happens where I am at

However it is my favorite season


I remember seasons. There were four of them. Fall was gorgeous in Virginia! I remember diving into piles of maple leaves. A few months later building snow forts. Planting flowers in the spring. And the playground and basketball court all summer. :)

Now I live in Texas. Ah Texas. Lol. A friend sent this to me.

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For Those Who Continually Lambast Dr. Masters for Discussing AGW/Climate Change

While it's been a few months since I've had the time to engage in any discussions on this forum, I have been lurking frequently. I'm still aghast at the number of individuals (deniers/skeptics/trolls) who continually bash and denigrate Dr. Masters for his posts that provide information and data that leads an educated person to believe that the planet is warming and that human activity is the primary cause.

For those of you that are still skeptical or still in denial, I have a series of questions for you to consider:

1. Do you have Dr. Master's first-hand experience tracking and forecasting tropical weather events?

2. Do you have a PhD in meteorology from a prestigious university?

3. Do you have Dr. Master's implicit and tacit knowledge about how a warming climate could impact regional and global weather patterns?

4. Have you, like Dr. Masters, had the business acumen and entrepreneurial spirit to start a business which has achieved the success of the Weather Underground?

5. If you have answered NO to 3 or 4 of the above questions,do you at least have some college-level education, beyond freshman introductory courses, in either a scientific or engineering discipline?

If you have answered NO to all 5 questions, you are entirely dependant on media sources for your scientific information. Are your sources peer-reviewed scientific journals and credible science-oriented websites or are they just cable news channels and talk-radio, hosted by individuals with little or no formal education beyond high school?

I am making the assumption that the motivation for Dr. Masters frequent posts on this topic is that he is genuinely concerned about what is happening to the earth's climate. I'm almost certain he is not getting on the "AGW Bandwagon" for any financial gain. I honestly believe that he is more more concerned about the earth we are leaving for his children and grandchildren than any financial or political considerations!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Little Cody gonna cry? Do you need your bottle?

No and no. Thanks for considering me though, Kori! ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Here is the reasoning from the JTWC 0300z forecast.

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTIVE COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FOR THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS MAKING IT A
TROPICAL STORM. THIS IS BASED ON 2.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD INDICATING 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING
FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (05 TO 10
KNOTS). TS 26W IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND REMAINS ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
IMPROVING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72 IS EXPECTED UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
LOW VWS, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 26W WILL REMAIN ON A STEADY TRACK
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. A MORE MERIDIONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY TAU 120 ALLOWING A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STR AS THE STR SHIFTS EASTWARD. INTENSITY WILL
STEADILY INCREASE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD
TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND ECMF. BOTH INDICATE A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK INTO THE STR. THIS FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, KEEPING THE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH
THAN DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMF. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS LOW AS THE LLCC REMAINS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGION OF THE
STR.//
NNNN


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14311
Quoting allancalderini:
Do anyone think Florence will have been discover before the satellite era? I remember that Dr Master mention that maybe Oscar and Joyce would have gone undetected but I am 50% sure Florence would had also as she was only alive for 2 or 3 days at most.

It wouldn't have been discovered before 1950, which is about a decade before the start of the satellite era, but it would have been discovered at any point after then; it is noted that Hurricane Charlie of the 1950 Atlantic hurricane season developed less than 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, which is a farther east formation point than Florence's.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh please, you go to a regular high school. The work there isn't bad. Come talk to me when you've got three presentations, two projects, two essays, a persuasive speech, and a ton of other, smaller homework and class assignments due on Friday. :/


Little Cody gonna cry? Do you need your bottle?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I completed my TCR for Major Hurricane Bud. Check it out below.

Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Bud (EP022012)

I should be releasing Tropical Storms Joyce and Florence tomorrow afternoon, for anybody that cares.
Do anyone think Florence will have been discover before the satellite era? I remember that Dr Master mention that maybe Oscar and Joyce would have gone undetected but I am 50% sure Florence would had also as she was only alive for 2 or 3 days at most.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 4.4N 155.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.4N 155.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 4.7N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 4.8N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 4.9N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 5.0N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 5.1N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 5.7N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 7.0N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 4.5N 155.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14311
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh please, you go to a regular high school. The work there isn't bad. Come talk to me when you've got three presentations, two projects, two essays, a persuasive speech, and a ton of other, smaller homework and class assignments due on Friday. :/

Oh please, I also have to do work around the house and stuff. I also take harder courses so it isn't like anything is simple. I doubt you have multiple tests/quizzes this week.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

This silly school work is not allowing me to work on mine. I'll have Alberto, and hopefully Beryl if I try hard, done this weekend. Yes I do somewhat care what you did.

Oh please, you go to a regular high school. The work there isn't bad. Come talk to me when you've got three presentations, two projects, two essays, a persuasive speech, and a ton of other, smaller homework and class assignments due on Friday. :/
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
"The standard vehicle uses an alternator that is belt driven from the engine to recharge the battery and to produce power to run the car. No alternator, no power. A standard 12V car battery doesn't last more than 2 minutes without an alternator. I have experienced it myself."

Oh Aussie, have thought similar things. Though, have also thought about the wind while driving, wondering if could be harnessed to charge things.

Been raining cats and dogs all day in the N Wales, Snowdonia area. Went down to town, and the road from here was trying to be a river. Never seen it like that before. I live about 1000 feet up, the road down, basically that 1000 feet, and goes through farmland, and the water was just pouring off the farmlands. Down in the valley, the main town Llanrwst, is notorious for flooding. Was dark already and the lights weren't on the bridge, so couldn't tell if the river was flooding or not (usually floods the other side of the river more than the center of town side) Though it is a tidal river, so may have been low tide. My internet is still moving worse than old style dial up, which makes it hard to check anything (could barely get on here and took me ages). Heard something roll down the roof LOL Tried to look with flashlight, might be an antennae, something metal and twisty stuck on the gutter. Won't be able to tell til daylight. Don't even know if there was an antennae on the roof! I've not had tv in 5 years, so never been a concern or notice those things LOL Saw enough to see the SW of England getting the worst flooding. they seem to get hit worst a lot. We get LOTS of rain here, and a few places have flooded bad. But not sure what the set up is down there that they get such bad floods of towns.

And to Skyepony's post about the floods here, and our PM saying everyone would get the help they need...well, we'll see LOL We have the elite brigade in control, and they don't care much for the commoners!

And yoboi...I dunno what the post was about, but you said something about , do you just keep saying the boat is sinking when you have a pail...or do you use the pail so it doesn't sink. But, that seems such an analogy for climate change. Do you just keep complaining about it...or do you do something about it? But, it left me confused, as I thought you were anti-climate change? I mean, I think there is much natural reason, but, doesn't mean we should pollute to our hearts content and ruin the world. We have surely contributed, whether it is predominantly us or predomninantly natural it doesn't matter. But, still makes NO sense to pollute and kill off the world otherwise.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Speaking of severe weather, it is undergoing in the arklatex region.

Mesoscale discussion 2125

Lots of storms popping up down there but they're struggling to maintain themselves and become severe, I don't feel a watch is necessary though there will likely be a couple isolated severe storms.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7834
Quoting Doppler22:

I'd be a little concerned if u were doing that in a supercell

I just walk out with my kite and golf club and dance around waiting to see if I get struck...

...not.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I completed my TCR for Major Hurricane Bud. Check it out below.

Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Bud (EP022012)

I should be releasing Tropical Storms Joyce and Florence tomorrow afternoon, for anybody that cares.

This silly school work is not allowing me to work on mine. I'll have Alberto, and hopefully Beryl if I try hard, done this weekend. Yes I do somewhat care what you did.
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Quoting txjac:


It's called Lead by Example

Right now he's "Reaping What He Sows"

I've read some of the comments here where people have posted what they are doing to reduce their carbon footprints and I've posted what I have done to reduce mine. I've learned from people here. But I learn when I'm presented ideas and information in a positive manner. Sometimes you ask a question, seeking a response and you get ridiculed.
It's even more than leading by example. Al Gore isn't just trying to convince the masses that AGW is real. He is trying to convince the masses that it is a threat to the very existence of the human race as we know it, one that would require a massive infusion of tax dollars and government intervention in the markets to drive the price of carbon burning to much, much higher levels ... at a time when most middle-class incomes are stagnant if not shrinking. And in response to that dire threat, Al Gore ... has an utterly massive carbon footprint. I guess doing something about AGW is for the little people.

All while he has made over 100 million dollars with his own carbon schemes. Heck, he probably buys his carbon credits from himself.

Not a guy one can take seriously, given that he profits immensely from his stated agenda and does the exact opposite with his lifestyle that he demands the rest of us do.

The line soldiers trying to convince the world about AGW should tell Al Gore to just shut up. Oops, they are flying halfway around the world to attend the latest AGW conventions. Haven't they ever heard of videoconferencing?

Seriously, if AGW is such a dire threat, why does the IPCC have such massive conferences requiring millions of miles of jet travel for the cumulative group?

It really reeks of the mindset of a Soviet-style elite that preached equality, enforced a very minimal lifestyle for the people they ruled ... all while living high on the hog themselves.

I guess some animals ARE more equal than others.
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Speaking of severe weather, it is undergoing in the arklatex region.

Mesoscale discussion 2125
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I guess I could make room on the couch or something, lol. It hit 70F once in February in 2000 and, even though I was little, I wore shorts and even went to the zoo since they opened up for that day.


Yeah, snow I can play around in and make money off of in the form of snow blowing. I can't really do that in a supercell.

I'd be a little concerned if u were playing around in a supercell
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I completed my TCR for Major Hurricane Bud. Check it out below.

Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Bud (EP022012)

I should be releasing Tropical Storms Joyce and Florence tomorrow afternoon, for anybody that cares.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I wear shorts on and off all winter.
Whenever there is a warm spell. And I seriously could wear shorts in the afternoon the day after it snowed sometimes....depending on how the weather system was set up...if we hit 50 F or so.
Snowpack.....makes me want to move to Michigan.

I guess I could make room on the couch or something, lol. It hit 70F once in February in 2000 and, even though I was little, I wore shorts and even went to the zoo since they opened up for that day.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Snow is better.

Yeah, snow I can play around in and make money off of in the form of snow blowing. I can't really do that in a supercell.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Never seen real wind and snow for that matter
Quoting wxchaser97:

Exactly and I never really seen a good supercell.

Snow is better.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7834
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Never seen real wind and snow for that matter

Exactly and I never really seen a good supercell.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Well I usually wear shorts until about this time as it begins to just get too cold. In the 2010-2011 winter the snow pack didn't disappear after late December into late March/ early April IIRC.


I wear shorts on and off all winter.
Whenever there is a warm spell. And I seriously could wear shorts in the afternoon the day after it snowed sometimes....depending on how the weather system was set up...if we hit 50+F or so.
Snowpack.....makes me want to move to Michigan.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


They had some help with that song. They toured before they wrote that song and the opening group was Spirit. Listen to Taurus sometime... 0:44

yea man.. Randy California may he RIP,.. Fresh Garbage, Mechanical World, Natures Way, Uncle Jack, 12 Dreams of Dr. Sardonicus... goood stuff.



Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2557
Quoting wxchaser97:

But you haven't seen 12" of snow with thundersnow and winds of 30-35mph so I guess we both have something the other one wants. Yeah we get either squall lines or wimpy supercells.


Never seen real wind and snow for that matter
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


after a snowstory is 50F humid sunny with snow melting rapidly and running off into the sewers, and hte grass turning to mud, while the strong sunrays rebound off any remaining snow and hit you making you quite warm...You could practically wear shorts the day after it snows here sometimes, and it would just be a tad chilly at worst.
Snow doesnt last one daytime here.

Well I usually wear shorts until about this time as it begins to just get too cold. In the 2010-2011 winter the snow pack didn't disappear after late December into late March/ early April IIRC.

Quoting Doppler22:

And yes i love that feeling... try to get good pics of it!


I will try to, hopefully I will be able to share some with you guys.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

But you haven't seen 12" of snow with thundersnow and winds of 30-35mph so I guess we both have something the other one wants. Yeah we get either squall lines or wimpy supercells.

I've seen a tornado make touchdown and start ripping corn up form a cornfield... That wasn't on purpose either :p I was just in a car and there was a storm and what do know there was a tornado

Quoting wxchaser97:

Don't you just love the feeling of everything being clean, clear, and cool? I'm hoping for a great shot as I got a new camera and I might take a picture if it looks really good.


And yes i love that feeling... try to get good pics of it!

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Quoting wxchaser97:

You just don't see these kinds of events down south. The sky after a snow has that crisp clean feeling and it feels great. It should be a good winter and I am pretty excited.

Of course I am older than I was in the image as this was taken in the mid 2000's.

Lol, posted an image of a working structure fire instead of me in the end of a snowstorm. Though I soon hope to have a picture of me and a fire as that is one of the two things I want to be.


after a snowstorm it's sometimes 50F, humid, and sunny with snow melting rapidly and running off into the sewers, and the grass turning to mud, while the strong sunrays rebound off any remaining snow and hit you making you quite warm...
You could practically wear shorts the day after it snows here sometimes, and it would just be a tad chilly at worst.
Snow doesnt last one daytime here.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


That will be Super Typhoon Nina. Nov 21-Dec 3.
Cat 5 SSHWS, 907mb

Nida*
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32257
Quoting Doppler22:

I'm hoping you're right... I like the snowstorms where afterwards everything looks clean and the sky is bright blue and clear... I'll have to see how it looks tomorrow morning :p

Don't you just love the feeling of everything being clean, clear, and cool? I'm hoping for a great shot as I got a new camera and I might take a picture if it looks really good.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Pretty sure you meant 905 mb.

907mb
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


wimpy..
plus yall dont get real tornadic supercells.
with tennis ball sized hail and 80 mile per hour winds....I root for one to hit me every spring...and it doesnt haappen.
Always to my north, south or it dies in Alabama.

But you haven't seen 12" of snow with thundersnow and winds of 30-35mph so I guess we both have something the other one wants. Yeah we get either squall lines or wimpy supercells.
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Quoting wxchaser97:


I would like to chase a hurricane, but it would be hard to do that living 1000 miles away from the gulf.
Well you can do just that but for us its ussuallt the hurricans that chase us
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Lets see what I have seen, golfball size hail and 70mph winds, not like what happens in the south.


wimpy..
plus yall dont get real tornadic supercells.
with tennis ball sized hail and 80 mile per hour winds....I root for one to hit me every spring...and it doesnt haappen.
Always to my north, south or it dies in Alabama.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.