No change to Panama disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:37 PM GMT on November 11, 2005

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The area of disturbed weather affecting Panama and the surrounding ocean waters has changed little since Thursday afternoon. The are several clusters of intense thunderstorms, and some upper level outflow to their north, but no circulation center evident. The cloud pattern looks disorganized. About 10 - 20 knots of shear covers the area, which should prevent much in the way of development today and Saturday. By Sunday, wind shear levels are expected to drop and continue falling over most of the Caribbean as the strong upper-level westerly winds relax and move further north. This may allow a tropical depression to form as early as Sunday. The GFS and NOGAPS models favor development off the coast of Nicaragua early in the week, while the UKMET and Canadian models favor development near Puerto Rico later in the week.


Figure 1. GFS model forecast five days from now, showing a tropical storm with copious rainfall (bright green colors) forming near Nicaragua.

It is highly uncertain what land areas might be at risk if development does occur. The primary areas at risk would be Nicaragua, Honduras, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Hispanolia, and Puerto Rico.

Some rainfall totals for the 24 hours ending at 10 pm Thursday night:

Limon, Costa Rica: 59 mm (2.32 inches)
Santiago, Panama: 83 mm (3.27 inches)
El Porvenir, Panama: 103 mm (4.06 inches)

I'll be back with an update Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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44. Lovethetropics
1:31 AM GMT on November 14, 2005
000
WONT41 KNHC 140101
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY... RADAR DATA... AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 85 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. LUCIA HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER... AND ST. LUCIA REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE ALSO GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. IF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER
...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11302
43. FloridaBorn
6:48 PM GMT on November 12, 2005
snowboy, You know how fickle weather is. Freezing one day, sweltering the next, then cold all the time, or hot all the time. If you are very, very lucky you might even have a few perfect days during the year but these usually occur during work hours.

Weather is sort of like road construction. When you learn to work your way around the obstacles, they change again.
Member Since: June 8, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 11
42. snowboy
2:54 PM GMT on November 12, 2005
hey FloridaBorn, it ended up being a 5 log night but we're into sunny warmer weather for the next 2 days...

NHC tropical outlook still making noises about something maybe forming in the southwest Caribbean over the next few days
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
41. FloridaBorn
2:02 PM GMT on November 12, 2005
snowboy, what a great comeback--3 log night. Where you're from, I'm surprised it's not a 30 log night. I lived in Wisconsin for 7 years and Minnesota for 2 and still remember having to plug the car in at night so I could start it in the morning.
Member Since: June 8, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 11
40. snowboy
3:02 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
hey good evening melly, are you aka LakeWorthFinn or is she a neighbour?
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
39. 8888888889gg
3:00 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
oh i got it now lol
38. snowboy
2:59 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
... a 3 cat night - LOL FloridaBorn! I have the wood stove fired up and it's a 3 log night here...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
37. 8888888889gg
2:56 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
snowboy what was that you said
36. snowboy
2:49 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
riff on, 8888888889gg!

and excellent summary DCW - looks like there may yet be an addition to it to close out the season
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
35. 8888888889gg
2:27 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
i think that the W storm was a low cat 4 at landfall not a cat 3 at land fall and why have all of the hurrican that make land fall are all cat 3 like the D storm cat 3 the K storm cat 3 the R storm cat 3 the I storm of last year cat 3 the J storm of last year a cat 3 the only storm that made land fall as a cat 4 of last year was the C storm with winds of 150 or 155mph or what ever the winds where in the storm at the time and the W storm of this year a cat 3 at land fall
34. caneman
2:26 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
Screw all the tropical blobs.

And happy veterans day to the rest of us. Including my dad, a Vietnam Vet.

Semper Fi!
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
33. melly
1:55 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
Good evening all......I walk down my street in Lake Worth Florida....Every other house is packing to move to Georgia, including myself...Enough already. Just kidding, but I'm ready to be (melly at large)
32. atmosweather
1:38 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
dcw

gfdl also calls for a stronger ts than last run

great recap as well, the answer to the largest hurricane wind field is katrina (120 miles out), and also Ophelia never actually made landfall
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
31. taco2me61
1:36 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
Hey all, >>>> Thank you DCW for the recap and I had no idea untill I saw the break down... Thanks again...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
30. FloridaBorn
1:21 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
DCW, great recap! Thanks!

Destiny and snowboy: Looks like it's going to be a 3 cat night. (Doesn't get cold enough here for a 3 dog night.)
Member Since: June 8, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 11
29. snowboy
12:58 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
Latest NHC Tropical Outlook in agreement with what we're hearing from Dr. Jeff:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER PANAMA... COSTA
RICA... NORTHERN COLOMBIA... AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE AREAS. CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF PANAMA... COSTA RICA... NICARAGUA...
AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
28. atmosweather
12:37 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
good evening everyone
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
27. dcw
12:26 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
Does anyone notice that the TS shown on thr GFS looks stronger then last run?
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
26. dcw
12:26 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
Yep, Casey...but that doesn't stop this from having been a very cool season.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
25. billsfaninsofla
12:25 AM GMT on November 12, 2005
the pattern of the same areas getting hit over and over and over again..

Windnwaves....it sure is a mess, still... but Florida, Plunder & Loot says 100% of power restored...imagine all the credits Comcast will have to issue...
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5663
24. jcasey
11:17 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Before we get too excited about the (quite exciting) 2005 hurricane season, we might look at dcw's excellent list and try to figure out how many of those observations we might have made one or two cycles ago. Some of the observations (such as Wilma's incredible intensification) were quick, very local, and offshore -- I suspect that we never would have seen that if it happened 40 years ago. Some of the big landfall storms were also only in their top category for a short time while well offshore -- would they have been observed as such 40 years ago as well? Comments?
22. squeak
10:25 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
That invest in the eastpac fell apart today, that low is still spinning partially over northern Panama and partially over the eastpac, but nothing coming of it...and it looks like there is another tropical wave in the ATL.
21. squeak
10:19 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Well I have to take issue with that comment about the Dry Tortugas.

Basically these were all instances of tropical cyclones passing through the loop current, and the places where the loop current were encountered were a little different for each of the storms, and cannot really be tied to one specific location such as the Dry Tortugas.

Wilma went through the loop current just to the north of the coast of Cuba. Katrina's big gains in intensity were further north, and especially when she went over the eddy vortex just south of LA. Rita hit the loop current going north but then went right between two eddies, missing both of them. Dennis hit the loop current similar to Katrina's path, but a little more to the east (even though Dennis came from the Carribean). Yes at some point all of the paths of these hurricanes did come close to the Dry Tortugas (to the west), that is really incidental to when and how they increased in intensity.

The interesting point to make might be that it was an unsual year for GOM hurricanes that happened to hit the loop current, because other conditions were extremely favorable for development for a large portion of that time period: warmer water temps giving the loop current quite a punch, excellent outflow...both Kat and Rita had three outflow channels, large anticyclonic movement over the GOM.

Wiki has pulled the nice graphics from Colorado University on the paths of the hurricanes throught the loop current this year and posted them all in one place.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loop_Current
20. seflagamma
8:57 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Interesting information. Thanks dcw. Wow, what a year!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40929
19. dcw
8:37 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Season Recap - so far

Season tops

Strongest Storm: Hurricane Wilma, 175mph/882mb
Strongest Gulf Storm: Hurricane Rita, 175mph/897mb
Strongest Landfalling Storm: Hurricane Katrina, 145mph/920mb(est)
Strongest Cape Verdes: N/A, no Cape Verdes storms
Fastest Intensification (6 hour): Hurricane Wilma (69mb, 65mph)
Fastest Intensification (24 hour): Hurricane Wilma (98mb, 105mph)
Most Damaging: Katrina (preliminary estimates are well above Andrew's record)
Largest Hurricane Wind Field: Not sure about this one, think it was Katrina or Rita though.
Largest Tropical Storm Wind Field: Hurricane Wilma (in the north Atlantic, 415miles out)
Most Bizzare: Take your pick : Wilma, Ophelia, Vince

Landfalls this year:
.= Tropical Depression
,= Tropical Storm
[= Hurricane
0= Major Hurricane


,Arlene: Tropical Storm, extreme Florida Panhandle
,Bret: Tropical Storm, southern Mexico
,Cindy1: Tropical Storm, Yucatan
,Cindy2: Tropical Storm, Louisiana
0Dennis1: Category 3-4, nearly the whole island of Cuba
0Dennis2: Category 3, Florida Panhandle
0Emily1: Category 4, Yucatan
0Emily2: Category 3, northern Mexico
,Gert: Tropical Storm, southern Mexico
,Jose: Tropical Storm, southern Mexico
[Katrina1: Category 1, south Florida
0Katrina2: Category 4, southwest Louisiana
0Katrina3: Category 3, Mississippi
[Ophelia: Category 1, North Carolina
0Rita: Category 3, extreme southeastern Louisiana
,Stan1: Tropical Storm, Yucatan
[Stan2: Category 1, extreme southern Mexico
,Tammy: Tropical Storm, Georgia
.Vince: Tropical Depression, Spain (?!?!?!)
0Wilma1: Category 4, Cozumel
0Wilma2: Category 3, Yucatan
0Wilma3: Category 3, south Florida
,Alpha: Tropical Storm, Hispaniola
,Beta1: Tropical Storm, island off the Nicaraguan coast
[Beta2: Category 2, Nicaragua

For those of you too lazy to count, that's twenty-five landfalls.

Landfall Distribution
TDs: 1
TSs: 8
Category 1-2: 4
Major Hurricane: 10 (!?!?!)

U.S.: 10
Florida: 4
Louisiana: 3
Mississippi: 1
North Carolina: 1
Georgia: 1

Hottest spot: Near the Dry Tortugas, all storms passing through that area (four) gained at least a Category in the next 24 hours.
Dennis: Cat 1 -> Cat 4
Katrina: Cat 1 -> Cat 5
Rita: Cat 2 -> Cat 5
Wilma: Cat 2 -> Cat 3

For my original version (Last Elder=me):
Link
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
18. Destiny
7:25 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
LOL typo I guess... ooooosh. The coldest we've been here so far is -21. Thank goodness it only lasted for two days. We're in the single digits right now. "The Uncomfort Zone". Im hoping it warms up to the 20's so we'll get some snow. There isn't enough snow to open the ski slopes yet, so the whole area consist of a bunch of unhappy campers right now. The Aurora right now is just phenominal. Here is a link from one of my email groups from earlier in November. Its a shot of the borealis from space. Link
Member Since: September 1, 2002 Posts: 10 Comments: 1
17. snowboy
7:06 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
LOL Destiny that was a major typo - it's 32 degrees here... (O celcius), -32 is only the Canadian far north, I'm about an hour west of toronto.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
16. iyou
5:53 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Destiny! That's a hyphen before the 32 in snowboy's comment - I'm less than an hour away from him and the temp. is now 46 deg.F. That would be a record breaker for us at this time of the year!
Member Since: July 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
15. seflagamma
5:48 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Hello everyone,
On the way to work this morning, I get on Commerical Blvd going west off of Pine Island heading for the Sawgrass. The lines for the food stamp location in Broward, at what use to be the Sunrise Musical Center and now a Worship Center, were backed up down Pine Island road, West on Commercial almost to the Sawgrass and as far as I cold see coming from the East on Commercial. This was at 6:30am. It was really bad yesterday but even worse this morning. I realized when I could not turn left after 2 lights, I had to get out of the left turn lane and go north a few blocks to detour around the congestion. It will probably be even worse tomorrow since it is Saturday.

We are having beautiful weather in Broward also this lovely morning. For us that get chilled easily, it did require long sleaves and a light jacket! Hey, what can I say, I get cold at 70!
Sure hope Gamma and/or Delta does not develope. We have Thanksgiving around the corner and no more time for a hurricane. Also, I took all of my food and supplies that we will not need and gave them away yesterday to a family with 6 kids who really needed it. Now my hurricane closet is empty again and don't want to replenish it until next June 2006! Take care and I will check in when I can.
Gamma
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40929
14. gbreezegirl
5:47 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Hi Destiny. Yes believe it or not we got down around upper 30s-low 40s this morning!
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
13. Destiny
5:38 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Good Morning you guys, gbreeze, Pensecola, you guys actually getting some cool weather? and Snowboy, where are you?! We're only 7 this morning but -32 kind of gave my chill bumps, chill bumps.

Member Since: September 1, 2002 Posts: 10 Comments: 1
12. billsfaninsofla
5:37 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
CG... hi.. yes, please nothing this way...
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5663
11. cgableshurrycanegal
5:26 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Hello All! Nice day here in MIA area. Folks are still lining up for Food for Florida cards... and since we're still cleaning up and tying down roof tarps from the Keys thru WPB that's a really good thing! The amount of debris being collected is staggering! From Miami the trucks would line up to NYC, they say. From Ft. Lauderdale, they say to CA! That danged blob better fizzle away...
From all this season's rain and history, no land masses need any additional moisture, if my hurricane-addled brain recalls correctly... ::sigh::
Member Since: July 12, 2005 Posts: 24 Comments: 212
10. FloridaBorn
4:50 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
It is in the 70's today where I live. Quite pleasant for the snowbirds from up north, but I'm a bit chilled. The leaves haven't fallen from the trees yet--that usually happens in December and they're back on again by the end of March.

Member Since: June 8, 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 11
9. stormydee
4:44 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
TGIF! Happy Veterans Day!
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
8. squeak
4:38 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Well the shear is fierce again today. It still appears to me that there is a area hugging the N/E Panama coast just south of 10N where the shear is less, but that doesn't really leave much room for development...still convection is forming in that entire area to Columbia, to beat the band. Whatever I saw yesterday slipped into the EastPac, just south of the S/W Panama coast near Coasta Rica, where it appears to my novice eye that a LLC has developed with some convection. There's a lot of shear there too.

NRL has an invest way out in the EastPac at around 116W 16N, which will likely keep moving west, no threat to land.
7. Pensacola21
4:33 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Weird weather...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
6. rwdobson
4:32 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
First freeze in KC Thursday morning, but now the winds have turned around and we are racing back to the 70s this afternoon. Excellent.
Member Since: June 12, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1589
5. Pensacola21
4:10 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Hey Gbreeze... It was chilly!! I love it!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
4. weatherboyfsu
4:04 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
The only way the US could get anything if something develops in the bay of campeche.........
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
3. snowboy
3:57 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
it's cold enough here - 32 degrees with a few flurries in the air...

As for next week, my sense is we will unfortunately be dealing with Gamma before the week is out.

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2555
2. gbreezegirl
3:49 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Hi 21. Was it cold enough for you this morning? Brrr!
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
1. Pensacola21
3:42 PM GMT on November 11, 2005
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.