A tranquil and record-warm Thanksgiving for much of the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:35 PM GMT on November 23, 2012

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Celebrations of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in 2012 were aided by some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week. Unusually warm and precipitation-free conditions prevailed over almost the entire nation on Wednesday and Thursday, with many locations in the Midwest reporting their warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. At least three cities set records for their warmest temperature ever recorded so late in the year: Valentine, Nebraska (76° on Wednesday); Rochester, Minnesota (70° on Wednesday); and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan (65° on Thursday.) While the quiet weather was a boon for travelers, the lack of rain in the Midwest allowed the nation's worst drought since 1954 to expand; the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought expanded by 1% to 60% this week. This reversed a seven-week trend of slowly decreasing drought that began on September 25 and extended until November 13, when the area covered by drought declined from 65% to 59%. The latest ten-day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models show much below average chances of precipitation across more 90% of the U.S., including the drought regions. These dry conditions will allow the drought to expand over the next two weeks, and potentially cover 65% of the contiguous U.S. again by mid-December. The next chance for significant rains in excess of one inch in the Midwest will not occur until December 2, at the earliest. The lack of rain will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by December 10, when the river may fall below the level of -5 feet at St. Louis needed to allow barges to not scrape bottom.


Figure 1. This week's U.S. Drought Monitor shows 60% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.


Figure 2. Predicted 8-day precipitation amounts from the 06Z (1 am EST) November 23, 2012 run of the GFS model. For the 8-day period ending on Saturday, December 1, only the Northwest Coast, Central Gulf Coast, and portions of the Tennessee Valley are predicted to receive rains in excess of one inch. Image credit: NOAA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models is forecasting tropical cyclone development between now and the Friday, November 30 official end of hurricane season. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of one more named storm forming in December in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, but late-season storms forming in that location rarely affect land.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

I Am Thankful (pasocorto)
I Am Thankful
HappyThanksgiving! (suzi46)
to all our wonderful WU Community..a frigid and frosty daybreak at our neighbor's pond..heading up to a sunny and beautiful 50 degree afternoon..:)
HappyThanksgiving!
there's always light.. (mieke)
there's always light..
()

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569. beell
Quoting bappit:
I don't know what they are up to.


you must be quite pleased with yourself, Mr. bappit.
;-}
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568. Skyepony (Mod)
OSCAT
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41192
567. Skyepony (Mod)

It's still feast or famine with a high anchored on Greenland.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41192
I don't know what they are up to.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6184
565. txjac
Quoting AussieStorm:


How long does this go on for? it seems like you guys have been dealing with for some time now.
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Quoting yoboi:


it's under severe weather link ya can try and spin it all ya want...

yoboi,
Want you to know I see what you mean about the dropdown menu for "Severe weather" on Wu. The menu even includes hurricanes. The "U.S. severe alert map" seems to include all the advisories issued by NWS.

Here's a wu radar map from the Fort Polk NWS radar. When I clicked "Show Severe" it made an opaque white color over counties that have a "Winter Weather Statement" in effect. Below this map is the Winter Weather Statement for one of those areas.

Seems to me what this discussion has been about is different meanings of the word "Severe" to different bloggers, different websites, different types of mass media in different parts of the world.. As I said this morning, to me "Severe Weather" is thunderstorm related. I think (edit) also includes anything for which a watch or warning can be issued - e.g. fire, winter, flood. At wu, apparently something as simple as danger to tender vegetation applies. (And I do appreciate it when my NWS office issues those advisories so I know when to bring outdoor plants in.)

This is another example of how the meteorological community, including media mets, could make some changes, set worldwide standards, whatever. Kinda like naming storms. Don't be arbitrary. Give us some criteria that make sense and communicate more clearly to the general public. The way this website's severe weather link reads, severe could be an EF5 tornado or simply what's gonna kill your aloe if you leave it on the front porch. I think it's wrong to include an advisory like this on a radar map link meant to depict "Severe Weather." Maybe wu could rethink that and use a different click spot for everything except watches and warnings. Or not.
:)



Sabine
Freeze Warning
Statement as of 9:35 PM CST on November 24, 2012

... Freeze warning now in effect until 8 am CST Sunday...

* event... Canadian high pressure will continue to dominate the
four state region tonight with the center of the surface high
just to the east. Mostly clear skies and near calm winds will
allow for minimum temperatures to drop near or just below
freezing across most of the region on Sunday morning.

* Timing... freezing temperatures are expected late tonight
through around sunrise on Sunday morning.

* Impact... tender vegetation will be susceptible to cold related
damage. Additionally... pet owners may need to take precautions
to protect outdoor pets.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.


ADD: Nov 25. Crops, this could be a "severe" situation. Froma damage point of view, extended drought sure is.
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Quoting aspectre:
PensacolaDoug:
364 ScottLincoln: Yep, still near record lows for this time of year.


Given his predilection, I suspect PensacolaDoug was comparing the difference in continental snow cover.


And eyeballing two images remains a poor way to identify trends for snow cover, as well...
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I highly recommend reading the blog by Bryan Norcross

Uncovering the lessons of Sandy


...Also, we now know that an untold number of New York City firefighters and policemen stayed in their homes near the water, only to end up leaving in the middle of the storm in a nightmare evacuation... lashing family members together to hang on through the raging water. These are people that understand that really bad crap happens in the world. You'd think that an NYC firefighter, if anybody, would have taken action to protect his family if he understood that the ocean was going to come surging through the house. That was exactly the forecast, but that, obviously, did not come through in the messaging.



http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/show.h tml?entrynum=26
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
560. Skyepony (Mod)
HAVANA, Nov. 24 (Xinhua) -- Cuba will host an international conference next May to discuss the effects of hurricane Sandy and issues related to climate change, the official news agency Prensa Latina said on Saturday.

The Sixth International Conference on the Comprehensive Management of Coastal Areas will be held next May in the eastern city of Santiago de Cuba, which was most devastated by Sandy late last month, said the report, quoting Dr. Ofelia Perez, director of the Center for Multidisciplinary Studies on Coastal Areas (Cemzoc) of the University of Oriente.

The conference will be "a bright opportunity to study the complex circumstances associated to the course of the devastating cyclone in the region," said Perez.

He added that the main issue to be discussed during the meeting will be the integration for the sustainability of coastal ecosystems against climate change.

Perez said that experts from Mexico, Venezuela, Canada, Colombia, Uruguay, Spain, France and Brazil have expressed their interest in attending the conference, which will also cover social, health and environment studies linked to global warming.

Hurricane Sandy, which was considered "historic" by the local meteorologists, hit eastern Cuba on Oct. 25, devastating the city of Santiago de Cuba and leaving 11 people dead.

Over 130,000 houses collapsed in the hurricane disaster, which also caused economic losses of more than 100 million U.S. dollars for the island nation.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 41192
Is fog weather? Yes.

Can you have severe fog? Yes.

So you can have fog as severe weather...
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Or lets look at dew, it got my shoes wet!


that stuff is slippery... it probably kills more people in the states every year than fog!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


If this is monomania, so are all the global warming debates we have during the off season.

Now sit back and watch, you killjoy. :P


True -not relevant in the moment, but true nonetheless. What I have managed to do is to get you and yoboi arguing (debating) on the same side against me. Reminds me of the consequences of interfering in a domestic disturbance. Don't let me be your killjoy. Monomania away!
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Quoting Bielle:


Being a debate does not, even if true, necessarily preclude monomania: one is a method; the other, content. But whatever you say, sonny. ;)


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Quoting Dragod66:
well lets look at the reverse of fog... is really dry air severe?... Chapped lips!!!!!!!!

Or lets look at dew, it got my shoes wet!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
Quoting yoboi:


the uk considers it a severe weather event and when i click on severe weather link on this site dense fog is shown they also say severe weather overlay with fog....so to me they consider it severe also
FOG... IS... NOT... CONSIDERED... A... SEVERE... WEATHER...
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well lets look at the reverse of fog... is really dry air severe?... Chapped lips!!!!!!!!
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Quoting Bielle:


Being a debate does not, even if true, necessarily preclude monomania: one is a method; the other, content. But whatever you say, sonny. ;)


If this is monomania, so are all the global warming debates we have during the off season.

Now sit back and watch, you killjoy. :P
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Quoting yoboi:



does that apply to climate change also???

I like your thinking.
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Quoting yoboi:


just click the severe weather link and walla dense fog is there


Let me try and simplify this for you as plainly as I can. If you still don't understand, I'll try again. Wunderground's severe weather page is not an indicator of the severity of a particular event. The enumeration in question is only meant to illuminate ongoing weather advisories/bulletins. It is not meant to classify non-severe events (which have their own specific criterion for classification) like dense fog under the false pretense of "severe weather". This particular phrase was never intended to be used as an umbrella term to encompass literally every form of dangerous weather. Feel free to do that yourself, but it doesn't make things any more conforming to your opinion.

Yes, fog is dangerous. But so is almost every single weather event. Will you categorize them as "severe" as well? What you're doing is taking your own definition of what you believe should constitute "severe weather", and trying to apply it in real-time to something that's bound to happen again. That's called a fallacy.

To summarize, yes, the severe weather page on this site is reliable. But that's because it relays information directly from the National Weather Service. In other words, the bulletins you refer to are bound by the technicalities set forth by this wonderful governmental entity. I don't make the rules, I'm just trying to lay them out for you. If you have a beef with this whole thing, take up with the National Weather Service.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I prefer to call it "debate", but whatever you say, sonny. ;)


Being a debate does not, even if true, necessarily preclude monomania: one is a method; the other, content. But whatever you say, sonny. ;)
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Quoting Bielle:


WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules

Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

3. No monomania.


I prefer to call it "debate", but whatever you say, sonny. ;)
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mon~o~ma~ni~a (mn-mn-, -mny)
n.
1. Pathological obsession with one idea or subject.
2. Intent concentration on or exaggerated enthusiasm for a single subject or idea

I could point out several handles here that have this problem.
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541. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting wxchaser97:

-Fog indicates stable weather.
-Fog is not recognized as severe weather in the US and most other countries.
-Fog does do harm to people, that is true.
-This 24hr argument about fog is very pointless, we should drop it and find something else more productive to do. Only reason I'm even responding is because you are escalating this too quickly and much more than it needs to be.


And your not by continually replying ???
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Dorian sounds pissed too.


Erin. I honestly think Andrea and Erin are the only names that people would take seriously until the list gets to Ingrid, lol.

However, names like Chantal and Dorian would be GOLDEN for twitter. ;)
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Quoting yoboi:


it's under severe weather link ya can try and spin it all ya want...

-Fog indicates stable weather.
-Fog is not recognized as severe weather in the US and most other countries.
-Fog does do harm to people, that is true.
-This 24hr argument about fog is very pointless, we should drop it and find something else more productive to do. deleted...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
Quoting yoboi:


severe overlay what does that mean???


WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules

Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

3. No monomania.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yoboi:
Warnings for Woodford, Illinois | Weather Underground Dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am CST Wednesday... The National Weather
Service in Lincoln has issued a dense fog ... Severe Overlay on Radar. Click to ...
www.wunderground.com/US/IL/031.html
It's dense fog ADVISORY... it's not severe weather warning.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Nah, I'm still saying stupid Ohio State as I don't like them. Michigan could've won, it was just a close game. A cold game with light winds and flurries.

Yeah, I knew that.


Homes evacuated amid further rain

Severe flood warnings are in place as saturated parts of the UK are hit by more heavy rain and strong winds.
In some areas of Cornwall people have been told to leave their homes as floodwater and torrential rain caused "serious threats to life and property".
Severe flood warnings have been issued in Polperro, Helston, Perranporth and Lostwithiel.
The Environment Agency has more than 100 flood warnings and about 200 flood alerts in place in England and Wales.
And the Met Office has issued an amber weather warning for heavy rain.

Severe flood warnings mean severe flooding and danger to life. Flood warnings mean people should take action because flooding is expected, while flood alerts indicate people should prepare for possible flooding.
A woman is trapped under a fallen tree in Paris Street, Exeter
"Rest centres" have been set up for residents in the villages facing severe warnings. But river levels around Millbrook have dropped and a rest centre opened there has since been closed
Roads have been closed across the region due to flooding. Exmouth in Devon has been cut off, with the A376 closed by police
The M5 is closed southbound between the junctions for Taunton and Wellington, while the M48 is closed in both directions due to flooding between J2 M48 Severn Bridge and M4 J23
The RNLI's south west flood rescue team have been asked to assist the emergency services in Exeter, Devon, with two inshore lifeboats
National Rail said there were delays between Newton Abbot and Exeter St Davids due to flooding and a landslip. The replacement buses have been cancelled on some routes
Network Rail said trains were likely to be disrupted between Exeter, Taunton and Bristol Temple Meads until Monday
A body thought to be that of a man who fell into a canal in fog in Watford has been found
Emergency services, rescue crews and the Environment Agency met Cornwall council bosses during Saturday evening in a bid to spread the message about the danger to life and property.
Devon and Cornwall Police said about 75 homes had been affected across the county.
Spokesman Ian Walls said: "Rest centres have been set up overnight, for people who need to leave their homes and have nowhere else safe to go.
"I'm not sure how much sleep they will get, but it is a way of keeping them safe. I don't want to overstate it, but when there is a real danger to life - as there can be with just a foot of floodwater - then action needs to be taken."
Alan Crockford, a pub landlord in Polperro, said there had been warnings but "nobody knew it would get this bad".
He said: "I was actually in my house and I heard a roar, and just looked outside the window and that was the first bit of water that just, just came down the hill, like a river running straight down the road.
"We were given warnings from Floodline, and they just said like to take care, we were never given any firm warning that you had to evacuate and no one knew to expect it this bad."
Defences shored up
The Met Office has been forecasting heavy rain and strong winds across all parts of the country over the weekend.
The Environment Agency said strong winds would increase the risk of flash flooding as drainage channels were likely to become blocked with wind-blown debris.
"The rain will spread north and east, increasing flood risk in north-east and north-west England on Sunday. The picture remains unsettled for the start of next week," a spokesman said.
John Curtin, head of incident management at the Environment Agency, said: "We would urge people to continue to be prepared for flooding, sign up for Environment Agency flood warnings, keep up to date with the latest situation and stay away from dangerous flood water."
Strong winds
BBC forecasters said south west of England had seen between one and two inches of rain (25mm to 50mm) during Saturday evening, but the worst had passed. It would now be dry for a time with further showers into Sunday morning. Strong winds of between 60mph and 70mph could also whip the south of England and East Anglia in the early hours of Sunday. The weather system bringing the weather will move into northern England and southern Scotland on Sunday.
BBC weather forecaster Chris Fawkes said: "The flood warnings are a legacy of the really heavy rain we've had already so far this week.
"The rivers have been doing what rivers do best, flowing down hill, taking all that excess water away, but they've not managed to clear the backlog. That's why we've got flood warnings in place right now."
Environment Secretary Owen Paterson warned people to be vigilant.
He said: "I would like to warn everybody that flood water is dangerous.
"More rain is forecast over the next few days and it's very easy to leave one's cosy home and just get struck by water and not realise how dangerous it is."
Devon and Somerset Fire and Rescue Service have rescued three people from a car stuck in flood water in Mulchelney, Langport.
A 90-year-old woman was rescued after being stranded in her flooded home in North Curry, near Taunton.
On Thursday, a man died in floods after he became trapped in his car under a bridge in Chew Stoke near Bath.
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Quoting yoboi:



why is it when i click on severe weather on this site dense fog is considered severe weather try the link you will see what i am talking about.....do you consider this site as something to go by????

I think you got this mixed up. When you click the link it shows all the active warnings, watches, and advisories(severe and non-severe).
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
Quoting yoboi:



why is it when i click on severe weather on this site dense fog is considered severe weather try the link you will see what i am talking about.....do you consider this site as something to go by????


This site shares National Weather Service information, including the warnings you so vehemently espouse, so yes, I suppose I consider it a reliable source of official information. Still not seeing anything contradicting what I said, btw.
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this is a cool picture. It shows the Milky Way's center. The bright dot in the middle is jupiter
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Quoting AussieStorm:


I would say stupid Michigan as they couldn't beat Ohio State. Ya can't blame a team for beating your team, just means your team didn't play well enough . But I'm being logical :-)

Nah, I'm still saying stupid Ohio State as I don't like them. Michigan could've won, it was just a close game. A cold game with light winds and flurries.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
Link

A little comic relief.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Internal Server Error

The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.
Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

Apache/1.3.42 server - Port 80



OK folks... confession time, tell us:

anything you might have done that may have caused the error.


Blame TA13, he made the mess. lol
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Michigan lost to Ohio State in a close game, stupid Ohio State.


I would say stupid Michigan as they couldn't beat Ohio State. Ya can't blame a team for beating your team, just means your team didn't play well enough . But I'm being logical :-)
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Internal Server Error

The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.
Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

Apache/1.3.42 server - Port 80



OK folks... confession time, tell us:

anything you might have done that may have caused the error.


Well lets see, I didn't do it. This has been going on for a little while now but not as frequent as earlier.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
el nino is back in western style!!!
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I will chim into the names game to say Gabrielle.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15652

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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