A tranquil and record-warm Thanksgiving for much of the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:35 PM GMT on November 23, 2012

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Celebrations of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in 2012 were aided by some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week. Unusually warm and precipitation-free conditions prevailed over almost the entire nation on Wednesday and Thursday, with many locations in the Midwest reporting their warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. At least three cities set records for their warmest temperature ever recorded so late in the year: Valentine, Nebraska (76° on Wednesday); Rochester, Minnesota (70° on Wednesday); and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan (65° on Thursday.) While the quiet weather was a boon for travelers, the lack of rain in the Midwest allowed the nation's worst drought since 1954 to expand; the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought expanded by 1% to 60% this week. This reversed a seven-week trend of slowly decreasing drought that began on September 25 and extended until November 13, when the area covered by drought declined from 65% to 59%. The latest ten-day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models show much below average chances of precipitation across more 90% of the U.S., including the drought regions. These dry conditions will allow the drought to expand over the next two weeks, and potentially cover 65% of the contiguous U.S. again by mid-December. The next chance for significant rains in excess of one inch in the Midwest will not occur until December 2, at the earliest. The lack of rain will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by December 10, when the river may fall below the level of -5 feet at St. Louis needed to allow barges to not scrape bottom.


Figure 1. This week's U.S. Drought Monitor shows 60% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.


Figure 2. Predicted 8-day precipitation amounts from the 06Z (1 am EST) November 23, 2012 run of the GFS model. For the 8-day period ending on Saturday, December 1, only the Northwest Coast, Central Gulf Coast, and portions of the Tennessee Valley are predicted to receive rains in excess of one inch. Image credit: NOAA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models is forecasting tropical cyclone development between now and the Friday, November 30 official end of hurricane season. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of one more named storm forming in December in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, but late-season storms forming in that location rarely affect land.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

I Am Thankful (pasocorto)
I Am Thankful
HappyThanksgiving! (suzi46)
to all our wonderful WU Community..a frigid and frosty daybreak at our neighbor's pond..heading up to a sunny and beautiful 50 degree afternoon..:)
HappyThanksgiving!
there's always light.. (mieke)
there's always light..
()

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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Once again, that's called weather. Climate is combined weather 30 years or more.
and once again your incongruity of response, to having not being addressed in the first place, completely misses Nea's reply to an actual question...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm looking for a snow forecast for Wednesday and Thursday for Eastern Us/Canada... Anyone help me out?
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Once again, that's called weather. Climate is combined weather 30 years or more.


I'm not quite sure what you're trying to prove here. I'm pretty sure Nea understands the difference between climate and weather. The projected outlook calls for warmer than average and drier than average conditions across much of the continental US for the next couple of weeks. How you get "climate" out of that I'm not really sure, other than the source being named Climate Prediction Center.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


What? Seriously? I know I predicted an Internet blackout for December 22 onward, but this...well, makes no sense...I'll read what NASA actually says. :P

I think one is viewer written from what they think NASA says. Then when you read what NASA actually reads it's hard to understand how someone could mis-intemperate what NASA said.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
615. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BOLDWIN (03-20122013)
16:30 PM RET November 25 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Boldwin (994 hPa) located at 15.1S 73.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.3S 70.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale
48 HRS: 18.7S 67.0E - Depression Se Comblant
72 HRS: 22.0S 66.6E - Se Dissipant

Additional Information
========================
In the south of the upper level ridge axis, northwesterly vertical wind shear keeps on increasing near the center of Boldwin. Due to a lack of recent microwave imagery, low level circulation center is difficult to locate precisely but the small vortex is still masked by upper level clouds.

The convective activity mainly exists in the southeastern quadrant but remains well sustained by a rather good poleward upper level divergence.

Wind shear is expected to keeps on increasing as the system will undergo the influence of an approaching upper level trough. System is therefore expected to keeps on weakening within the next 36 hours as it tracks west southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures.

Beyond system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south, and turn southwards and then south southeastward and merge with this trough on Wednesday or Thursday.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Look what's on CNN.....

NASA predicts total blackout on 23-25 Dec 2012 during alignment of Universe.

US scientists predict Universe change, total blackout of planet for 3 days from Dec 23 2012.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-al ignment.html

It is not the end of the world, it is an alignment of the Universe, where the Sun and the earth will align for the first time. The earth will shift from
the current third dimension to zero dimension, then shift to the forth dimension. During this transition, the entire Universe will face a big
change, and we will see a entire brand new world.

The 3 days blackout is predicted to happen on Dec 23, 24, 25....during this time, staying calm is most important, hug each other, pray pray pray, sleep for 3 nights...and those who survive will face a brand new world....for those not prepared, many will die because of fear.

Be happy, enjoy every moment now. Don't worry, pray to God everday.

There is a lot of talk about what will happen in 2012, but many people don't believe it, and don't want to talk
about it for fear of creating fear and panic. We don't know what will happen, but it is worth
listening to USA 's NASA talk about preparation.


Here is what NASA really says. Link


What? Seriously? I know I predicted an Internet blackout for December 22 onward, but this...well, makes no sense...I'll read what NASA actually says. :P

Update: Aussie, don't be silly. That's not even CNN, it's an iReport article. The NASA link calls the "alignment" hypothesis nonsense.

Once again, as was the case in the Camping Doom Scares, the only valid point in the article is "love/hug each other" and perhaps "prepare yourselves spiritually". But that's only because the Ego inhibits free will, in my opinion.

"Love is not Fear."

And now, back to the weather. After it snowing four inches early Saturday morning, much of the snow melted and now, it's melting again. A weak Alberta clipper (a type of low) will pass through the Great Lakes area, bringing more snow. Now, I have a question: how does the Mississippi fall below 0.0 ft at St. Louis--what baseline is it measured from?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't understand why NASA would write a story rationalizing the fact that some believe a cataclysmic event will unfold on this years winter solstice, as if people who believe in such frivolous claims will suddenly become filled with logic after reading the aforementioned story.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look what's on CNN.....

NASA predicts total blackout on 23-25 Dec 2012 during alignment of Universe.

US scientists predict Universe change, total blackout of planet for 3 days from Dec 23 2012.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-al ignment.html

It is not the end of the world, it is an alignment of the Universe, where the Sun and the earth will align for the first time. The earth will shift from
the current third dimension to zero dimension, then shift to the forth dimension. During this transition, the entire Universe will face a big
change, and we will see a entire brand new world.

The 3 days blackout is predicted to happen on Dec 23, 24, 25....during this time, staying calm is most important, hug each other, pray pray pray, sleep for 3 nights...and those who survive will face a brand new world....for those not prepared, many will die because of fear.

Be happy, enjoy every moment now. Don't worry, pray to God everday.

There is a lot of talk about what will happen in 2012, but many people don't believe it, and don't want to talk
about it for fear of creating fear and panic. We don't know what will happen, but it is worth
listening to USA 's NASA talk about preparation.


Here is what NASA really says. Link
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 90W organized quite a bit overnight:



Very mixed signals still regarding its future. The GFS has been very consistent in making it a strong system and taking it well out to sea. The Euro hadn't been showing development for a while, but is now forecasting slow development over the next several days. Because it keeps it weak for much of the run the Euro shows a much more southerly track, so it's something to keep an eye on.

the Euro had it as a very compact system last week but keeping it well out to sea, so not much has changed then.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Once again, that's called weather. Climate is combined weather 30 years or more.


Fine.

Reality doesn't care about man-made grouping terms, boundaries, or definitions.

It's this rigid, categorical thinking, i.e. hurricane categories, which got more than an average number of people killed in Sandy even though it was "only" a category 1.

If you insist on a 30 year period, fine, update your 30 year period every year, and compare it to any other 30 year period, not just decade boundaries.
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Good morning. 90W organized quite a bit overnight:



Very mixed signals still regarding its future. The GFS has been very consistent in making it a strong system and taking it well out to sea. The Euro hadn't been showing development for a while, but is now forecasting slow development over the next several days. Because it keeps it weak for much of the run the Euro shows a much more southerly track, so it's something to keep an eye on.
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90W is slowly consolidating.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14279
Good morning everyone, it is a cold morning with a 29F temp. I went to bed with a green and brown ground and woke up to a white one, it snowed last night. There is 1/2-1 inch of snow on the ground.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Can you tell Summer is getting close???

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Statement from the Guam NWS regarding 90W.



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1042 PM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012

PMZ172-173-174-260100-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1042 PM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF POHNPEI HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS CENTERED NEAR 3N158E. THIS IS
ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUORO...250 MILES NORTHEAST OF
KAPINGAMARANGI...AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH OF POHNPEI. HEAVY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE FLARING UP JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI...SOUTHWEST OF
KOSRAE AND SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. THIS CONVECTION COVERS

TA...ETAL...SATAWAN...LUKUNOR...NAMOLUK AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS
IN SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE AND
SAPWUAFIK...NUKUORO...AND KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE AND
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. CHOPPY SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET
COULD BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CAUSE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS ACROSS
THIS REGION.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD STAY ALERT AND
MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS.

$$

AYDLETT
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14279
603. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
Since it's a little slow this Sunday morning, I thought I'd mention that WU Weather Historian Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting new blog post out, Same-Day Record High and Low Temperatures. In it, he details many instances of phenomenal short-term temperature swings, such as:

"On November 11, 1911 the most extreme cold front in U.S. meteorological records swept quickly across the Great Plains and Midwest. Kansas City, Missouri fell from 76° to 11° in 12 hours. Oklahoma City fell from 83° to 17° and Springfield, Missouri from 80° to 13°. In all three cases the cities recorded both their record high and record low temperature on November 11th."

Burt's blog posts are always a great read, and this one is no exception. If you can tear yourself away from the riveting "Fog is severe weather!" arguments, go have a look... ;-)



dense fog nea keep it real
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
602. yoboi
Quoting Bluestorm5:
FOG... IS... NOT... CONSIDERED... A... SEVERE... WEATHER...


i was talking about dense fog not just fog...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
How dry is it here:

As we near the end of the month, the 7-day forecast holds a couple of slim chances for a few drops in the bucket – but a completely dry November is starting to look like a bleak possibility.

If we do end the month with 0.00″ of rain at Camp Mabry, this will only be the 4th such occurrence since records began in 1856, and the first time in over a century:

Camp Mabry’s Driest Novembers:

November 1861 – 0.00″

November 1894 – 0.00″

November 1897 – 0.00″

November 2012
Unfortunately--or fortunately, depending on one's point of view--the CPC isn't calling for much different for you over either the 6-10 day period:

CPC
CPC

...or the 8-14 day period:
CPC
CPC
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
Since it's a little slow this Sunday morning, I thought I'd mention that WU Weather Historian Christopher C. Burt has a very interesting new blog post out, Same-Day Record High and Low Temperatures. In it, he details many instances of phenomenal short-term temperature swings, such as:

"On November 11, 1911 the most extreme cold front in U.S. meteorological records swept quickly across the Great Plains and Midwest. Kansas City, Missouri fell from 76° to 11° in 12 hours. Oklahoma City fell from 83° to 17° and Springfield, Missouri from 80° to 13°. In all three cases the cities recorded both their record high and record low temperature on November 11th."

Burt's blog posts are always a great read, and this one is no exception. If you can tear yourself away from the riveting "Fog is severe weather!" arguments, go have a look... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
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Good Morning Folks!..cold here this morning............
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How dry is it here:

As we near the end of the month, the 7-day forecast holds a couple of slim chances for a few drops in the bucket – but a completely dry November is starting to look like a bleak possibility.

If we do end the month with 0.00″ of rain at Camp Mabry, this will only be the 4th such occurrence since records began in 1856, and the first time in over a century:

Camp Mabry’s Driest Novembers:

November 1861 – 0.00″

November 1894 – 0.00″

November 1897 – 0.00″

November 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning.

The weather in Puerto Rico will be very good this week with plenty of sun and cooler temperatures.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14279
Good Morning World, 75 and Sunny today, 82 and Sunny Monday, very mild here so far this year and no rain in 2 months. Have a great day!
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Video of flooding in UK last night


Link
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2925
I don't like this time of year. Hitting refresh on this page does not necessarily yield new things to read.
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More flooding misery for the UK, although not as bad as it might have been.

Wettest summer here in Scotland for 100 years, and it just keeps falling.

The usual path of the jet stream has altered in recent years, bringing unusual and extreme weather to many regions. The most extreme effects have been the record Russian heat wave of 2010 and the record Pakistani floods that year.

The jet stream is weakening, probably due to the 'arctic dipole', which itself is probably being caused by the record Arctic ocean ice melt. This causes its meandering 'loops' to move further south.

The jet stream is emerging as an early 'joker in the pack' in climate change, causing unexpected changes to regional weather patterns.


Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2925
Quoting Allan012:


Ryan, I told you that the server was going to be acting up like it has, these past few days...


who's Ryan?
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


And eyeballing two images remains a poor way to identify trends for snow cover, as well...




Ya seem stuck on an image. Ya off yer meds or something?

32.5 On da bayou at this moment.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Actually, the next apocalypse will happen in 2038. More precisely, 03:14:07 UTC on Tuesday, 19 January 2038. This is when internal clocks of 32 bit OS's will run out, flipping back to 1/1/1970.

Well, it's not really an apocalypse, but many a nerd and geek will sigh in nostalgia at the passing of that date. :)


Think it's quite likely that my clock will have run out long before then. But ya never know. In any case, there is at least one nice thing about being an old, retired UNIX guru... At least I won't be sittin' in the hot seat for that one the way I was for Y2K. :)
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588. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BOLDWIN (03-20122013)
10:30 AM RET November 25 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Boldwin (992 hPa) located at 14.5S 73.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/12 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center extending up to 25 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.3S 71.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.8S 67.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.5S 66.9E - Depression Se Comblant

Additional Information
========================
In the south of the upper level ridge axis, vertical wind shear keeps on increasing near the center of Boldwin.

The low level circulation center has been re-localized northern and is now under the northwestern edge of the deep convective main cluster (SSMIS F18 0309 AM UTC and F17 0049 AM UTC).

This convective activity mainly exists in the southeastern quadrant but remains strong, well sustained by a rather good poleward upper level divergence.

Wind shear is expected to keeps on increasing slowly over the next 12 hours then more sharply as the system will undergo the influence of an approaching upper level trough.

System is therefore expected to keeps on weakening within the next 36 hours as it tracks west southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures. On and after tau 48 system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south, and turn southwards and then south southeastward.
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Quoting Grothar:


So that's where it ended up! I always wondered what happened to it.


Grothar, you need to keep better track of your toys.
Do you remember what happened when you lost the Ark of The Covenant? It took 4000 years for some guy in a dusty leather jacket to find the damn thing again. And even when he found it, he had to fight off a bunch of Nazis for it. The thing ended up melting people, so the government locked it up in warehouse where you won't be able to play with it anymore.

And don't get me started on Noah's Ark. How you manage to lose a giant wooden ship capable of holding two of every animal on Earth I'll never know. And poor Noah wouldn't even have needed to build it in the first place if you had made sure your sink faucet was turned off.

;)
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Quoting EstherD:



Just finished an interesting foray into Newton's occult studies. Knew that Newton was heavily into stuff like alchemy, but didn't know he also worked on prophetic interpretation of the Bible. A very enjoyable diversion for a slow afternoon, so thanks for the info!


Actually, the next apocalypse will happen in 2038. More precisely, 03:14:07 UTC on Tuesday, 19 January 2038. This is when internal clocks of 32 bit OS's will run out, flipping back to 1/1/1970.

Well, it's not really an apocalypse, but many a nerd and geek will sigh in nostalgia at the passing of that date. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18625
Quoting Skyepony:


I didn't even think of Frogger..lol.

I was taken with how the Kelvin waves have been dying sooner & farther west through time.
Probably why Nino has not made the official spot for so long...Sign of things to come I believe.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21256
Quoting Skyepony:


End of December the BOM is expecting a jump of the MJO which will kick off the NAMS.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Better?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Internal Server Error

The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.
Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

Apache/1.3.42 server - Port 80



OK folks... confession time, tell us:

anything you might have done that may have caused the error.



Oops! I tripped over the power cable to the WU's router. ... I'll get it. ...... Better? ... Oops! I need to flush the router's dns cache too. .... Be right back.
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580. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting hydrus:
Looks like a video game from the 80,s Skye..:)


I didn't even think of Frogger..lol.

I was taken with how the Kelvin waves have been dying sooner & farther west through time.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37870


Copy & Paste..... Copy & Paste .......

Copy & Paste..... Copy & Paste .......

Copy & Paste..... Copy & Paste .......

Copy & Paste..... Copy & Paste .......
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like a video game from the 80,s Skye..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21256
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
finally i can get back into the blog...broken again....


William at support has written to say that the problem is with me and my failure to clear my browser caches. I pointed him to one section of 100 posts in which 14 separate people were complaining of exactly the same error message in all manner of browsers (cleared and not) and from all over the world. I haven't heard anything back since, and the problem is not fixed. If you want some action on the matter, I suggest you also write in.
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575. Skyepony (Mod)
WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37870
Quoting txjac:


How long does this go on for? it seems like you guys have been dealing with for some time now.

It's that time of year for us. Will end around April.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
573. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 37870
finally i can get back into the blog...broken again....
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571. beell
Just as good, lol!
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Actually, no. More like mystified.
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569. beell
Quoting bappit:
I don't know what they are up to.


you must be quite pleased with yourself, Mr. bappit.
;-}
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.