Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:35 PM GMT on November 23, 2012 | +36 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Will TWC name it? or since it's occurring on a weekend they won't.
I doubt they will...but why do you say they won't just because it's the weekend?
For instance the journal Climate Change is available at:
http://link.springer.com/journal/10584?utm_campai gn=EarthSciences_773904&utm_medium=landingpages&ut m_source=springer&wt_mc=springer.landingpages.Eart hSciences_773904
Link for list of free access journals
Nea doesn't "bully" people. If proving somebody wrong is considered bullying to you, then you might want to get your definitions straight.
So calling someone drunk or giving back handed insults isn't bullying?
This is from there naming criteria.
The process for naming a winter storm will reflect a more complete assessment of several variables that combine to produce disruptive impacts including snowfall, ice, wind and temperature. In addition, the time of day (rush hour vs. overnight) and the day of the week (weekday school and work travel vs. weekends) will be taken into consideration in the process the meteorological team will use to name storms.
Often a weather system that is expected to strike a metropolitan area three days from now has not even completely formed in the atmosphere. Therefore, naming of winter storms will be limited to no more than three days before impact to ensure there is moderate to strong confidence the system will produce significant effects on a populated area.
Link
I know their criteria...you still didn't answer my question about the fact that just because it's the weekend they won't name it..
The storm is too weak for causing widespread damage/disruption
RyanMaue Ryan Maue
Middle week, total snow that falls could exceed a foot over New England. DC, NYC, Boston to see measurable | GFS 00z pic.twitter.com/pNG9kHSC
Link
Energy
Power exports peak, despite nuclear phase-out
Renewable energy sources are booming in Germany, and electric utilities exported more power in 2012 than ever before. But energy experts warn that what sounds like progress has its downsides.
Germany began turning off its nuclear power plants 18 months ago, following the Fukushima disaster in Japan. Since then, many in the business and industrial communities and the general public have feared that the country would soon be facing energy shortages and even blackouts due to a lack of electricity.
Instead, Germany has produced so much electricity this year that it has actually exported its surplus. In 2011, Germany was a net importer of electricity, but this year, utility companies sent some 14.7 billion kilowatt hours of power abroad, according to preliminary figures made public by the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW).
Cheap power from Germany
Windmills stand in front of power plants Foto: Oliver Berg Germany's neighbors have tapped into its energy grid
The rapid increase in power generation in Germany from wind, solar and hydro, however, has been accompanied by an equally rapid decrease in the price of electricity - and not just for German consumers, but also for large customers outside Germany.
This has resulted in a rise in demand for cheap power from Germany; in particular, from the Netherlands, where - due to the cheap imports - several domestic gas-driven power plants have been taken off the grid. Switzerland and Austria are also among Germany's best customers.
Large corporate and industrial users in Germany, however, view the export figures as evidence that the country's energy switchover has not been a success. Their industry association, the VIK, noted that wind and solar utilities frequently generated electricity when there was no immediate demand and that eco-friendly power was pushing gas-driven plants out of the market, although these were still needed when the wind wasn't blowing or the sun wasn't shining. VIK head Annette Loske has stressed that it's important to ensure that Germany expand its power grid and storage capacities.
Cold and strategic reserves
But a current energy surplus and large export volumes don't mean that Germany is immune to power shortages. During harsh winters, or when the wind isn't blowing, there is a so-called "cold reserve" for emergency situations. Germany has many reserve power plants ready for any and all eventualities.
In addition, the BDEW has called for a "strategic reserve" - an artificial shortage of power supplies - using the mechanisms of supply and demand. The less power there is, the more expensive it becomes, even if the low supply is artificially introduced.
The strategic reserve serves not only emergency situations, but also industry, according to Benjamin Weigert, secretary general of the German Council of Economic Experts. "It's meant to increase the price of electricity to generate incentives to invest in capacities and technology," he told DW.
Benjamin Weigert, Copyright: Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung Germany needs to transform its energy sector, says Weigert
Subsidies both good and bad
The increased production of energy from renewable sources is essentially a happy circumstance; however, it is being bought at a very high price, and ultimately the taxpayers and consumers shoulder the costs. Weigert points out that Germany's Renewable Energy Law (EEG) regulates the subsidies for and purchase of eco-friendly power. "We sell electricity for 5 or 6 cents on the exchange and pay those who feed it into their grids - for example, the solar energy sector - over 20 cents," he said.
In 2013, some 16.2 billion euros ($20.6 billion) in subsidies will be paid out to alternative energy producers, said Weigert, and if production increases further, it will be even more. At the same time, he warned that rising supplies lead to falling prices across the EU's energy markets.
A change or improvement in this ludicrous situation is nowhere in sight because the subsidy mechanisms are cast in stone by the EEG. And to make matters worse, the subsidies established by law make no distinction between old, uneconomical utilities and newer, more efficient eco-friendly ones.
Weigert also pointed out that there is currently no concept for reaching an energy market of the future in which 'renewables' would, or could, have a share of 40 to 50 percent. That is a huge challenge, he said.
More competition, more grids
Munich skyline Much of the power demand for renewables comes from the south
The biggest hurdle ahead, said Weigert, is finding a way to efficiently transform the old energy system into a new, alternative energy sector. More competition is necessary but government subsidies need to stay, he argued, because the energy market is very unique.
And then there is another practical problem for energy planners, he noted: the expansion and extension of overland transmission lines to keep up with the growing decentralized generation of alternative energies.
"A big part of the problem is that the energy is not produced where the demand is," said Weigert. Most of the country's decommissioned nuclear power plants are in southern Germany, but wind energy comes from the north.
DW.DE
In addition, the time of day (rush hour vs. overnight) and the day of the week (weekday school and work travel vs. weekends) will be taken into consideration in the process the meteorological team will use to name storms.
They'll name it Sunday night/Monday morning as it will be effecting NYC and the NE.
Yes he does, all the time.
taken into consideration....... not a decisive turning point That should not even be stated in their criteria...
They did not name the Michigan storm...it was far stronger and happened on a Wed-Fri timeframe
Just like how they didn't name the winter storm before Athena.
Don't remember..
are you talking about Sandy? if so that storm is already named..why wasting Athena for it?
Dangerous sinkholes opening up in Arverne section of peninsula, locals fear street collapse
Comments (2) By Lisa L. Colangelo And Irving Dejohn / NEW YORK DAILY NEWS Monday, November 19, 2012, 5:4
Rockaway resident Adolfo Richter, 67, surveys a sinkhole in the backyard of his house on Beach 68th St. Residents have noticed a cluster of similar holes on their properties, causing alarm that the street may collapse. Officials with the city Department of Environmental Protection told the Daily News they plan to investigate.
If lack of power and flood damage wasn’t enough, some Rockaway residents are getting the sinking suspicion that the ground just might literally cave in underneath them.
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/queens/sinkhol e-cluster-rockaways-article-1.1204771#ixzz2D6zFQ9e 5
- Giant sinkholes a problem in Queens after Sandy
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
NEW YORK (WABC) -- First they were flooded by Hurricane Sandy and now they're being swallowed by sinkholes.
Some of the sinkholes are 10 feet deep in Queens.
Residents are worried about further damage to their homes and whether the ground their standing on could literally cave and crumble.
Link
No, he isn't bad actually. If you don't like him, there is the handy dandy ignore button.
There was a winter storm effecting MT, ND, SD, WY. Just after Sandy and before Athena.
Why would TWC rename an already named system, that would be confusing.
wow... that's like the dessert after the main course
There is no much population there...most f the snow fell on the tall mountanous terrains so there wasn't much travel disruption or threatening of any (big...if any) cities
I don't know why either but here people were saying about naming Sandy Athena...sort of like Santhena...many people also said that this naming thing was confusing anyway thus NWS doesn't care about it
This one? Link
broken link
Nope, before Brutus and Athena.
can't believe the sun is out there already when it was here 7 hours ago
is it developing an eye???!!
But it did drop 20' of snow. Sure the population isn't high in those states but it would be disruptive. Also on Weatherbrains when Brian Norcross was on, he also explained that they would mainly name systems that would effect the east coast. So I guess a system only effecting the NW wouldn't make that criteria also.
Try again :) this one? Link
If it still doesn't work, it is a link to twc referring to winter storm Brutus.
It appears to be.
Yeah. It was visible on microwave imagery earlier.
well...they named Brutus there too. Not all the storms are in the eastern seaboard.
got it thks
surprising little storm...
Sadly, the idea that we only use 10% of our brains is also untrue (Snopes article written by Benjamin Radford, Managing Editor of the Skeptical Inquirer).
Maybe it was to soon after they decided to start naming winter storms.
It's not at 30kts anymore.
Maybe this storm Link
By their criteria, they made the announcement of naming winter storms on October 2, so there was not enough time to name this one.
that could also be the issue..good point
they weren't sure when to stick in the fork
I'll say nearing hurricane strength...and getting stronger fast since the eye is forming
Definitely stronger than 30 kts based on satellite image.
agreed!
how does the tropical cyclone advisory deal works with JTWC or whoever does it over there?
Yeah, that's the one. Thanks for finding it.
I'm not really sure. I think it is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center.
It would be up to the authority that looks after a certain area to issue advisories.
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4S 77.0E TO 14.2S 72.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
240200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
76.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S
77.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 76.4E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 232203Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
DUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG WESTERLIES LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 250230Z.//
We didn't get a TC in the SW Pacific.
I go to the JTWC site often
Viewing: 251 - 301
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