Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A tranquil and record-warm Thanksgiving for much of the U.S.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:35 PM GMT on November 23, 2012 +36
Celebrations of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in 2012 were aided by some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week. Unusually warm and precipitation-free conditions prevailed over almost the entire nation on Wednesday and Thursday, with many locations in the Midwest reporting their warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. At least three cities set records for their warmest temperature ever recorded so late in the year: Valentine, Nebraska (76° on Wednesday); Rochester, Minnesota (70° on Wednesday); and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan (65° on Thursday.) While the quiet weather was a boon for travelers, the lack of rain in the Midwest allowed the nation's worst drought since 1954 to expand; the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought expanded by 1% to 60% this week. This reversed a seven-week trend of slowly decreasing drought that began on September 25 and extended until November 13, when the area covered by drought declined from 65% to 59%. The latest ten-day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models show much below average chances of precipitation across more 90% of the U.S., including the drought regions. These dry conditions will allow the drought to expand over the next two weeks, and potentially cover 65% of the contiguous U.S. again by mid-December. The next chance for significant rains in excess of one inch in the Midwest will not occur until December 2, at the earliest. The lack of rain will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by December 10, when the river may fall below the level of -5 feet at St. Louis needed to allow barges to not scrape bottom.


Figure 1. This week's U.S. Drought Monitor shows 60% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.


Figure 2. Predicted 8-day precipitation amounts from the 06Z (1 am EST) November 23, 2012 run of the GFS model. For the 8-day period ending on Saturday, December 1, only the Northwest Coast, Central Gulf Coast, and portions of the Tennessee Valley are predicted to receive rains in excess of one inch. Image credit: NOAA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models is forecasting tropical cyclone development between now and the Friday, November 30 official end of hurricane season. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of one more named storm forming in December in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, but late-season storms forming in that location rarely affect land.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters
I Am Thankful (pasocorto)
I Am Thankful
HappyThanksgiving! (suzi46)
to all our wonderful WU Community..a frigid and frosty daybreak at our neighbor's pond..heading up to a sunny and beautiful 50 degree afternoon..:)
HappyThanksgiving!
there's always light.. (mieke)
there's always light..
Thanksgiving day parade (Outsideshot)
What a blast. Taken from 54th street and 6ave.
Thanksgiving day parade
Categories: Drought Heat
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201. wxchaser97 1:42 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Gas explosion damages and destroys buildings in Mass.


The extra-tropical storm is still impacting areas of Alaska.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6784
202. Patrap 1:43 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
America - Sandman

Ain't it foggy outside
All the planes have been grounded
Ain't the fire inside?
Let's all go stand around it
Funny, I've been there
And you've been here
And we ain't had no time to drink that beer

'Cause I understand you've been running from the man
That goes by the name of the Sandman
He flies the sky like an eagle in the eye
Of a hurricane that's abandoned

Ain't the years gone by fast
I suppose you have missed them
Oh, I almost forgot to ask
Did you hear of my enlistment?

Funny, I've been there
And you've been here
And we ain't had no time to drink that beer

'Cause I understand you've been running from the man
That goes by the name of the Sandman
He flies the sky like an eagle in the eye
Of a hurricane that's abandoned

I understand you've been running from the man
That goes by the name of the Sandman
He flies the sky like an eagle in the eye
Of a hurricane that's abandoned

I understand you've been running from the man
That goes by the name of the Sandman
He flies the sky like an eagle in the eye
Of a hurricane that's abandoned

I understand you've been running from the man
That goes by the name of the Sandman
He flies the sky like an eagle in the eye
Of a hurricane that's abandoned
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111329
203. CaicosRetiredSailor 1:44 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    

“Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the differance”


― Mark Twain
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5117
204. allancalderini 1:45 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tropical Storm Mindy from the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season.
Good job.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Tropical storm Nana?

Ok it was Mindy of 2003 but for Nana they did: SO IT'S TIME TO SING NA NA HEY HEY
KISS HER GOODBYE.
yeah I see.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's a popular phrase over at the NHC. They have started a tradition of using it every 5 years. We'll see some variation of it again next season.

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003

NANO NANO...NANO NANO...HEY HEY...GOODBYE. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING INDICATES MINDY IS A MERE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE
EXPOSED CENTER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP
FRONTAL-LOOKING CONVECTION TO THE EAST. MINDY IS DEGENERATING INTO
A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY
UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. GIVEN THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND
DRY ENVIRONMENT...THIS SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/5...CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE AS THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS GETTING LEFT BEHIND AS THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE
REMNANTS OF MINDY IS SLOWER THAN AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/COBB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 26.0N 67.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 14/1200Z 26.2N 66.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 15/0000Z 26.5N 65.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED


NNNN


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

NANA HASN'T BEEN PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTION TO QUALIFY FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS FOR MANY HOURS...SO IT'S TIME TO SING NA NA HEY HEY
KISS HER GOODBYE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON NANA. WITH SUCH
STRONG SHEAR FORECAST IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...REGENERATION IS
EXTREMELY UNLIKELY. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 18.4N 43.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 14/1800Z 19.3N 44.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 15/0600Z 20.5N 46.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 15/1800Z 21.8N 48.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN
its really a tradition? I didn`t know that.
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205. GeorgiaStormz 1:48 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
I'm gonna miss the warmth....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7157
206. wxchaser97 1:49 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I'm gonna miss the warmth....

I'm not...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6784
207. Patrap 1:50 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
MASTERMIND: Dr. Jeff Masters
TANYA MUZUMDAR | WEDNESDAY, MARCH 23, 2011




Dr. Jeff Masters, co-founder and director of meteorology at Weather Underground, has built a site that wraps his mind around the tragicomedy of whatever the atmosphere throws at us. Masters co-founded the Internet's first weather site back in 1995, and today Wunderground.com is visited by 17 million people worldwide (13 million in the U.S.) each month, ranking second only to Weather.com in U.S. web traffic. It's the 77th-most visited site in the U.S., according to Quantcast, and depending on turns of the weather, has been ranked as high as 52nd, Masters says.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111329
208. Patrap 1:54 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
"Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation
if it didn't change once in a while."
-Kin Hubbard
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111329
209. MontanaZephyr 1:55 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting EstherD:


Slow day. Bored silly. I'll take the bait...

Found one in just a few minutes of Googling...


Book Review by Robert T. Carroll, The Skeptic's Dictionary...
"Radin, however, has no doubts. He writes that “the eventual scientific acceptance of psychic phenomena is inevitable.” He tells us that in chapter 16 he is going to explain how psi works. He believes psi research will profoundly affect our notions of space, time, mind, and matter. He even thinks that miracles will become explicable in terms of psi, thereby profoundly affecting theology. He laments that science has not helped us understand such concepts as “hope” and “meaning.” He wants science to include a dualistic metaphysics and overcome its materialism. In short, he thinks psi research will provide scientific evidence that forces us to accept the metaphysical beliefs of mystics, who think everything is related as one holistic entity in which the spiritual dimension (imagined as disembodied consciousness) functions according to will. Like many others in his field, Radin tries to put forth a return to vitalism and some form of philosophical idealism in opposition to mechanistic materialism. Like many other parapsychologists, he claims this is a giant leap forward instead of a nostalgic longing for a magical past."

Read more.




Don't know who that is, but it is nonsense. It is not speaking to Radin's numbers. Lookit the numbers. Some twirp pissing in the wind about them is irrelevant. Duh.
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210. EstherD 1:57 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Don't know who that is, but it is nonsense. It is not speaking to Radin's numbers. Lookit the numbers. Some twirp pissing in the wind about them is irrelevant. Duh.


Robert Todd Carroll, Ph.D. (born 1945), is an American writer and academic. Carroll has written several books and skeptical essays but achieved notability by publishing the Skeptic's Dictionary online in 1994.

EDIT: For the sake of completeness...

Dean Radin (born February 29, 1952) is a researcher and author in the field of parapsychology. He has been Senior Scientist at the Institute of Noetic Sciences (IONS), in Petaluma, California, USA, since 2001, and is on the Adjunct Faculty in the Department of Psychology at Sonoma State University, on the Distinguished Consulting Faculty at Saybrook Graduate School and Research Center, and former President of the Parapsychological Association.

Member Since: November 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
211. etxwx 1:59 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
NJ Governor estimates Sandy will cost state at least $29.4 billion
By Chris Francescani
NEW YORK | Fri Nov 23, 2012 8:42pm EST

(Reuters) - Superstorm Sandy caused at least $29.4 billion in overall damage in New Jersey, according to a preliminary analysis released by Governor Chris Christie's office Friday.
Details here.
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212. Patrap 1:59 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
I'm more a Terrance McKenna fan myself.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111329
213. GTcooliebai 2:02 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
I thought our Thanksgiving was very pleasant and right around average temperature wise. Lower 70s for highs and upper 40s to lower 50s for lows. I absolutely love this fall to winter type weather.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5170
214. MAweatherboy1 2:07 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting allancalderini:
Good job.yeah I see.its really a tradition? I didn`t know that.

Lol, no, not that I know of, just a coincidence.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 66 Comments: 6356
215. Bluestorm5 2:12 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I'm gonna miss the warmth....
Same here...
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3584
216. EstherD 2:15 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Dunno offhand which side of the GW debate MontanaZephyr and RTSPlayer are on, so this should be construed as a general comment, not directed at either of them in particular.

It never ceases to amaze me how people on this blog can argue endlessly about GW, for which there actually is some decent science, and then accept uncritically certain pseudo-scientific claptrap such as PSY, for which there is little, if any, credible scientific evidence.

BTW, back to post 49... My glasses are very thick, my lips are very thin, and my pocket protector and sliderule collection is in excellent condition, thank you for asking. ;)

Oh. And it's a good day when I get to quote from the Bible...

Matthew 23.24: You blind guides! You strain out a gnat but swallow a camel!

Told you I was bored silly. ;)
Member Since: November 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
217. eyeofbetsy 2:15 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting EstherD:


Robert Todd Carroll, Ph.D. (born 1945), is an American writer and academic. Carroll has written several books and skeptical essays but achieved notability by publishing the Skeptic's Dictionary online in 1994.

EDIT: For the sake of completeness...

Dean Radin (born February 29, 1952) is a researcher and author in the field of parapsychology. He has been Senior Scientist at the Institute of Noetic Sciences (IONS), in Petaluma, California, USA, since 2001, and is on the Adjunct Faculty in the Department of Psychology at Sonoma State University, on the Distinguished Consulting Faculty at Saybrook Graduate School and Research Center, and former President of the Parapsychological Association.



Yes, I took Radin's work to the next level and have attained pure truth and the godhead too.(turns out Buhdda was right). I have a card to donate my essence(which is very much like fog but not severe) to Tulane Medical school.
Member Since: July 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
218. Tropicsweatherpr 2:17 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
PR has recieved a lot of rain in the past few days to cut the deficit of rainfall that has occured so far this year.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1012 PM AST FRI NOV 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROF PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT
WITH FLAT RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD SUN NIGHT. FRONT STRETCHING NE
TO SW INTO THE NRN DOM REP WILL BECOME STATIONARY NW OF AGUADILLA
SAT THEN DISSIPATE MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT NRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS DECK NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT LATE IN THE MORNING WITH CONVECTION
FIRING AGAIN OVR THE CORDILLERA. STEERING FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK
WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWARD DRIFT EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT
ITSELF AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE QUICKLY SUN
NIGHT WITH FRONT FCST TO DISSIPATE. H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
FCST TO BECOME QUITE LARGE SUN NIGHT AND MON AND DOUBT THAT ANY
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT MON-TUE WHICH SHOULD ALSO INHIBIT SEA
BREEZE CYCLE.

REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE
NORTH WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR. TURNING
COOLER NEXT THU AS HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROP
AS RIDGE GETS SHUNTED SWD AND POLAR TROF PATTERN DEEPENS ACROSS
THE ATLC INTO THE NRN CARIBBEAN. WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF EARLY
MORNING SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST PR TYPICAL OF WINTER
AND PLEASANT AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...BKN TO OVC SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PR TERMINALS AS
WELL AS TIST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY BETWEEN 4-7K FT WITH OCNL PERIODS OF AROUND 3K FT. WINDS WILL
BE FROM LIGHT AND VRB TO NORTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS ACROSS PR AND
USVI. TNCM AND TKPK CAN EXPECT WINDS FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
AFTER 24/16Z...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF
PR...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN STEERING WINDS...VCTS WAS LEFT OUT OF
TAF.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT IN NORTH SWELLS. WILL CHECK BUOYS AGAIN TO
SEE IF SMALL CRAFT ADVZY IS NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 77 86 / 80 40 70 70
STT 80 87 80 87 / 80 40 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8151
219. Patrap 2:19 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting eyeofbetsy:


Yes, I took Radin's work to the next level and have attained pure truth and the godhead too.(turns out Buhdda was right). I have a card to donate my essence(which is very much like fog but not severe) to Tulane Medical school.


<--- Lives near Broad and Orleans ave.


: )

who Dat.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111329
220. Patrap 2:22 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Uploaded by PublicResourceOrg on Sep 6, 2008

Department of Defense
Office of Civil Defense
Motion Picture Service

A Hurricane Called Betsy
AVA16542VNB1 - 1966

Recounts Hurricane Betsy's 3,000-mile trip from the Caribbean through the Bahamas, Miami, the Florida Keys, and along the Gulf Coast to New Orleans and Baton Rouge.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111329
221. etxwx 2:24 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Resuscitation hopes dim for expiring Kyoto climate treaty
Environment Correspondent Alister Doyle
November 22, 2012

OSLO (Reuters) - Fifteen years ago, fears about man-made climate change were enough to bind most of the industrialized world into a treaty that was flawed but at least seemed to cement the principle that greenhouse gases must be cut.

Yet now - with levels of those gases much higher and climate change more evident in extreme weather - economic slowdown and arguments over who should pay have all but killed any chance of a meaningful extension to the expiring Kyoto Protocol.


Story continues here.
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 678
222. CaicosRetiredSailor 2:25 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    

Chasing Ice

The movie

Why are you fascinated by ice?

I was inspired by a book I saw in graduate school that had black and white photos shot by Austin Post, a research scientist for the United States Geological Survey at that time. The guy had an understanding of glaciers that was as sensitive and intimate as people are to their spouses. In my head, I can still see these glittering icy peaks with gigantic glaciers pouring down and big black pieces of ice separating the ice streams in extraordinary shapes—otherworldly places that were far outside of the reality we live in.

Why would people want to see melting ice?

It’s an adventure film that unravels the secrets of the ice. It takes place in these extraordinary wilderness settings and beyond that, the glaciers give you a three-dimensional visual of how climate change reshapes the world. You can see and hear and touch climate change in action when you see the images—a relatively abstract concept is brought to life.

Was there a moment when you went from being a climate change skeptic to a believer?

Once I learned that the core of climate change was not about computer models but about empirical evidence from Iceland and Antarctica. Once I understood that the evidence was tangible. Then I thought, “This is real.”
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5117
223. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:26 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Sandy's damage total is up to $65.5 billion in United States dollars this evening. $33 billion from New York, $29.4 billion from New Jersey, $2 billion from Cuba, and another $500 million elsewhere.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25278
224. clwstmchasr 2:26 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
The "single location" reference is way back in the comment queue; you'd have to read back to the beginning to understand the context. The bottom line, however, is this: some people will argue with certain other people about virtually anything.

Anyway, while some here may wish to apply the term "severe weather" to fog events, I've found no meteorological agency that does so. The fact is, if fog can be classified as severe weather merely because it can lead to traffic accidents, then light rains are severe weather, too. And frost. And dew. And bright clear mornings that cause the low sun to cause temporary driver blindness...Skin cancer is dangerous. The sun causes skin cancer. Therefore, sunny days are severe weather.

Got it. Thanks! ;-)



No I don't "got it". I totally disagree. The sun isn't weather but fog is. I've never heard of a airport being closed due to sun or light rain so hour analogy is immature. Got it. Thanks.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2755
225. CaicosRetiredSailor 2:26 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
226. EstherD 2:29 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


... It is not speaking to Radin's numbers. Lookit the numbers. ...


One more thing...

Meta-analysis is a statistical procedure designed to extract a weak signal from a collection of otherwise well-designed and well-executed scientific studies. It was never intended to be used process poorly-designed and poorly-executed studies, such as most of those published by parapsychologists. In fact, one of the first steps is to get rid of the poorest studies, before running the statistical procedure on the remainder.

Piling 1000 more bad studies on top of an existing pile of 1000 bad studies won't get you anywhere you want to be, just as adding up zero a million times will only get you... ZERO.

As we say in statistics... Garbage in, Garbage out.

Member Since: November 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
227. allancalderini 2:30 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lol, no, not that I know of, just a coincidence.
Is that you were so sure in that statement. lol I just believe you.thanks anyway for answering me.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2021
228. AtHomeInTX 2:37 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
With the front coming through I hope there's more wind and no fog tonight. Meanwhile, we went from no drought to moderate drought to severe drought. That was quick.


Drought strengthens

Posted: Nov 16, 2012 8:32 PM CST Updated: Nov 22, 2012 8:59 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn

Severe Drought conditions across Southeast Texas

The drought across Southeast Texas has strengthened over the past week and we are now in Severe Drought conditions which is the second level of drought classification.

Since September 1st, Southeast Texas has only received 8.21 inches of rainfall which is only 56% of normal. Normally, we should have picked up 14.78 inches during the same time period.

Since the beginning of this year, we are still 3.22 inches above normal.

The long-term forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows this latest drought persisting.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3875
229. allancalderini 2:39 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
With the front coming through I hope there's more wind and no fog tonight. Meanwhile, we went from no drought to moderate drought to severe drought. That was quick.


Drought strengthens

Posted: Nov 16, 2012 8:32 PM CST Updated: Nov 22, 2012 8:59 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn

Severe Drought conditions across Southeast Texas

The drought across Southeast Texas has strengthened over the past week and we are now in Severe Drought conditions which is the second level of drought classification.

Since September 1st, Southeast Texas has only received 8.21 inches of rainfall which is only 56% of normal. Normally, we should have picked up 14.78 inches during the same time period.

Since the beginning of this year, we are still 3.22 inches above normal.

The long-term forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows this latest drought persisting.
Athome haven`t see you in a while how you doing?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2021
230. eyeofbetsy 2:41 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting Patrap:
Uploaded by PublicResourceOrg on Sep 6, 2008

Department of Defense
Office of Civil Defense
Motion Picture Service

A Hurricane Called Betsy
AVA16542VNB1 - 1966

Recounts Hurricane Betsy's 3,000-mile trip from the Caribbean through the Bahamas, Miami, the Florida Keys, and along the Gulf Coast to New Orleans and Baton Rouge.



Thanks for the video. Was in Baton Rouge, a junior in high school when she hit. Eye was enough open to see stars when it passed over. An awesome experience. We had 17 pines trees go down and that kept me busy for quite a while.

Who dat back at ya. Couple of tough ones coming up. Brees on CBS at 9pm.
Member Since: July 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
231. etxwx 2:42 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Researchers head to coldest place on earth for global warming insight
Ted Gregory | Chicago Tribune 11.22.12

Excerpt: CHICAGO — Reed Scherer has heard the question: Why in the world does he devote his career to studying Antarctica, the coldest, windiest place on earth, a place that is 98 percent solid ice? Even his wife jokes that he could pursue his research in the Caribbean.

The Northern Illinois University professor's answer is simple. Almost imperceptible geographic and climate blips over the rest of the globe are exaggerated in Antarctica. It's a phenomenon known as polar amplification.

"The reason is obvious to me, anyway," Scherer said one sunny afternoon in his third-floor office in DeKalb, Ill., outside Chicago. "If you want to know how the world is changing on a global basis ... you go to the end member."

That's where he'll be Friday, at the end member that, in a way, also is a place of origins. He and NIU colleague Ross Powell, another distinguished Polar scientist, will meet in the Antarctic. Joining them are a Ph.D. student and a senior geology major from NIU, a research associate in the university's computer science department and a fourth-grade teacher from Crystal Lake.

For almost a month, the group will sleep in tents and toil for up to 15 hours a day in converted shipping containers. Temperatures hover around 5 degrees Fahrenheit and 90 mph winds create massive snowdrifts and whiteouts. The reason for enduring that misery would seem to be a contradiction. Their work will provide crucial insight into global warming.

The NIU professors are researchers in a key part of a $10 million National Science Foundation project known as WISSARD, for Whillans Ice Stream Subglacial Access Research Drilling. It's a long-winded phrase for an effort aimed at studying ice sheet stability and subglacial life in West Antarctica.

That's an important region for climate change. Scientific evidence indicates that relatively recent instability in the Antarctic ice sheet, which covers the land, is raising sea levels.

The NIU crew, among other tasks, is gathering data from subglacial Lake Whillans that will help understand the ice sheet's instability and lead to forecasting Antarctic ice activity. Those are fundamental factors in climate change.

It starts at McMurdo Station, the logistics hub of the National Science Foundation Antarctic Program.

Established in 1955 on bare volcanic rock at the spot that is farthest south and still reachable by ship, McMurdo consists of about 85 structures, including dormitories, administrative buildings, power and water distillation plants, stores and a laboratory. Scherer likens it to a polar version of a 19th-century mining town.

While the researchers undergo survival training - known in the vernacular as "Happy Camper School" - and perform other preliminaries, a crew using giant Caterpillar tractors will haul equipment and supplies 570 miles to a site on the Ross ice shelf.

Researchers will arrive at camp via airplane about the first of the year and begin work. NIU, which has been sending scholars to the Antarctic since the early 1960s, is one of 10 universities in the project. In all, about 40 people are in the current group.

More details about the expedition here.
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232. wxgeek723 2:43 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Possible precedents to Sandy?

Snowicane of October 1804

Gale of 1878
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2350
233. AtHomeInTX 2:46 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting allancalderini:
Athome haven`t see you in a while how you doing?


Hi Allen. I'm doing fine. Hope you are as well. :) Just been keeping crazy hours lately. Not a lot going on here weather-wise. It has been beautiful here for the most part. As long as we don't slip too far into the drought again.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3875
234. Neapolitan 2:47 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting eyeofbetsy:
o if someone ask me what the weather is should I answer I don't know because it's foggy outside and I can't see the real weather. Fog is weather, the sun is not. Just don't believe weather has to be moving at 60mph to be severe. It's the visability thing with me.
Oh, it's all about visibility? Then I guess fog would qualify as severe weather, despite what all those stupid meteorologists think. Of course, by that same logic, so would night. Jeez. I wonder when the NWS will begin issuing severe darkness warnings... ;-)
Quoting bappit:
The original statement that I disputed was:

"The holiday weather has definitely been remarkably lacking in weather-related drama."

Patently false.
Do you also, then, consider as "patently false" Dr. Masters' contention that the U.S. has this week seen "some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week", or that this week's "quiet weather was a boon for travelers"?

Yeah, that's what I thought... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11148
235. Civicane49 2:52 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 3861
236. AussieStorm 2:58 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting wxchaser97:

Ohio... I don't like Ohio.


Cause it's hi in the middle?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321
237. beell 3:00 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Just for the record, the pile-up on I-10 around 8-8:30AM, Thursday morning, occurred near the Jefferson/Chambers County line in southeast Texas. This is also the boundary between the Houston, TX (HGX) and Lake Charles, LA (LCH) NWS Offices.

HGX issued a "Dense Fog Advisory" at 1:11 AM Thursday morning which included Chambers County. The advisory was issued under the "NPW" (Non-Precipitation Weather) header.

No Dense Fog Advisories were issued by NWS LCH but the possibility of fog was mentioned in several Area Forecast Discussions prior to the accident(s)

Some of the more notable types of "weather" in addition to Dense Fog/Smoke Watches, Warnings, and Advisories using this header:

High Wind Watch
High Wind Warning
Freeze Watch
Freeze Warning
Excessive Heat Watch
Excessive Heat Warning
Heat Advisory

Convective, Flooding, Winter Precip events usually fall under different parts of the hierarchy for NWS text products.

Carl Sandburg's poem "Fog" was written in 1919 before 70mph Interstate highways were around. As a landlubber, I don't think he was too afraid of the fog. Unlike tornadoes, floods, lightning, etc., "Progress" has made fog "severe".

The following should probably not be read by the weak-of-heart...

The fog comes
on little cat feet.

It sits looking
over harbor and city
on silent haunches
and then moves on.


~ Carl Sandburg
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12872
238. SFLWeatherman 3:00 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
It is 53 at 10:00PM it going to be a cold night!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2874
239. wxchaser97 3:04 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting AussieStorm:

Cause it's hi in the middle?

Because Ohio has Ohio State(college) and I hate Ohio State with a passion since I'm a Michigan fan.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6784
240. AussieStorm 3:17 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
So, we are now having a discussion about whether Fog is Severe weather or not.
To some here it may not be, but at sea or on the road it can be a severe visibility hazard to travellers.

We seen the after effects of what dense fog can cause, car accidents, boat accidents.

I once was driving in my car in dense fog and I could only see about 1-2ft in front. I drove by the cat's eyes on the road and the lane markings I could see. It was very scary. So would I call that severe weather. Yes, Yes I would. Cause personally it was severe enough that I felt like stopping but I didn't as I was afraid of being rear-ended.

Isn't Fog actually classified as Low cloud?


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321
241. eyeofbetsy 3:17 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, it's all about visibility? Then I guess fog would qualify as severe weather, despite what all those stupid meteorologists think. Of course, by that same logic, so would night. Jeez. I wonder when the NWS will begin issuing severe darkness warnings... ;-)Do you also, then, consider as "patently false" Dr. Masters' contention that the U.S. has this week seen "some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week", or that this week's "quiet weather was a boon for travelers"?

Yeah, that's what I thought... ;-)


Simma down dude. You win. Ripping up the petition to the NWS now. And never implied meteorologists are stupid. Woulda been one myself but didn't want to get that black smug crap that comes off those coins on my hands.
Member Since: July 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
242. Grothar 3:19 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
I have a "severe" headache with all this arguing.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19519
243. beell 3:21 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:
I have a "severe" headache with all this arguing.


Go take a walk in the fog, Gro. It's very soothing.

i likes da fog.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12872
244. AussieStorm 3:23 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting eyeofbetsy:


Simma down dude. You win. Ripping up the petition to the NWS now. And never implied meteorologists are stupid. Woulda been one myself but didn't want to get that black smug crap that comes off those coins on my hands.


Don't worry about him, He thinks he's all high and mighty and above all of us minions. I noticed he doesn't reply to me as I don't take being bullied.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321
245. wxchaser97 3:31 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting Grothar:
I have a "severe" headache with all this arguing.

I have a headache, but its due to the low pressure.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6784
246. AussieStorm 3:31 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321
247. luvtogolf 3:38 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting AussieStorm:


Don't worry about him, He thinks he's all high and mighty and above all of us minions. I noticed he doesn't reply to me as I don't take being bullied.


I don't take his bullying either. He brings no value or credibility to this blog. Just his own shallow opinions.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 367
248. Accu35blog 3:45 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Is it me or is there anyone else in the southeast us. Thats looking at there iphone and wating for that great cold and snowy model run. Lol
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
249. trHUrrIXC5MMX 3:50 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
___________________________

Lake Effect Snow advisories issued for many areas surrounding Lakes Ontario and Erie


click for larger image
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7880
250. Civicane49 3:52 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 60 Comments: 3861
251. AussieStorm 3:56 AM GMT on November 24, 2012    
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
___________________________

Lake Effect Snow advisories issued for many areas surrounding Lakes Ontario and Erie


click for larger image


Will TWC name it? or since it's occurring on a weekend they won't.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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