A tranquil and record-warm Thanksgiving for much of the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:35 PM GMT on November 23, 2012

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Celebrations of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in 2012 were aided by some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week. Unusually warm and precipitation-free conditions prevailed over almost the entire nation on Wednesday and Thursday, with many locations in the Midwest reporting their warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. At least three cities set records for their warmest temperature ever recorded so late in the year: Valentine, Nebraska (76° on Wednesday); Rochester, Minnesota (70° on Wednesday); and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan (65° on Thursday.) While the quiet weather was a boon for travelers, the lack of rain in the Midwest allowed the nation's worst drought since 1954 to expand; the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought expanded by 1% to 60% this week. This reversed a seven-week trend of slowly decreasing drought that began on September 25 and extended until November 13, when the area covered by drought declined from 65% to 59%. The latest ten-day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models show much below average chances of precipitation across more 90% of the U.S., including the drought regions. These dry conditions will allow the drought to expand over the next two weeks, and potentially cover 65% of the contiguous U.S. again by mid-December. The next chance for significant rains in excess of one inch in the Midwest will not occur until December 2, at the earliest. The lack of rain will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by December 10, when the river may fall below the level of -5 feet at St. Louis needed to allow barges to not scrape bottom.


Figure 1. This week's U.S. Drought Monitor shows 60% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.


Figure 2. Predicted 8-day precipitation amounts from the 06Z (1 am EST) November 23, 2012 run of the GFS model. For the 8-day period ending on Saturday, December 1, only the Northwest Coast, Central Gulf Coast, and portions of the Tennessee Valley are predicted to receive rains in excess of one inch. Image credit: NOAA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models is forecasting tropical cyclone development between now and the Friday, November 30 official end of hurricane season. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of one more named storm forming in December in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, but late-season storms forming in that location rarely affect land.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

I Am Thankful (pasocorto)
I Am Thankful
HappyThanksgiving! (suzi46)
to all our wonderful WU Community..a frigid and frosty daybreak at our neighbor's pond..heading up to a sunny and beautiful 50 degree afternoon..:)
HappyThanksgiving!
there's always light.. (mieke)
there's always light..
()

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Good Morning Folks!!...7-day for the Tampa Bay area........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33211
Good morning. Here is the latest warning from JTWC.

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 4.5N 156.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.5N 156.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 5.0N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 5.4N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 5.8N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 6.2N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 7.0N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 8.0N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 9.3N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 4.6N 155.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. //
NNNN



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting plutorising:
wondering if this happens here, paid trolls.

"Articles about the environment are hit harder by such tactics than any others. I love debate, and I often wade into the threads beneath my columns. But it's a depressing experience, as instead of contesting the issues I raise, many of those who disagree bombard me with infantile abuse, or just keep repeating a fiction, however often you discredit it. This ensures that an intelligent discussion is almost impossible - which appears to be the point."
Almost certainly. Dr. Rood's forum seems to have a higher percentage of them, though they do appear here, as well. Each and every time Dr. Masters or Dr. Rood posts an entry dealing with climate change, you can be sure there'll be one or more comments fitting the description given above. These range from oft-repeated and completely false one-liners ("It hasn't warmed in 16 years") to Gish Gallops crammed full of utter nonsense, from misspelled and illogical ad hominem rants to just general trollish behavior thinly disguised as honest debate. And, yes, they unfortunately serve their purpose well by derailing attempts at serious discussion.

FWIW, however, I don't think all those who engage in such games are necessarily paid. I believe many--mostly members of a political party that has fear of change as a plank--are simply following high-level directives calling on their compliant and obediently sheep-like supporters to take to internet forums en masse to launch campaigns against honest scientific fact.

(EDIT: I see I've inadvertently repeated much of what yonzabam already wrote. C'est la vie...)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting plutorising:
wondering if this happens here, paid trolls.

"Articles about the environment are hit harder by such tactics than any others. I love debate, and I often wade into the threads beneath my columns. But it's a depressing experience, as instead of contesting the issues I raise, many of those who disagree bombard me with infantile abuse, or just keep repeating a fiction, however often you discredit it. This ensures that an intelligent discussion is almost impossible - which appears to be the point."


Interesting article. I post in the comments section of the Telegraph, a UK newspaper. Any time a climate change related article comes up, there is an invasion of climate change deniers who keep on repeating the same lies, the most often repeated being that the world hasn't warmed since 1998.

However, I don't think they are 'paid trolls', as the article implies, although some may be connected in some way to the fossil fuel industry. It's a subject that just seems to whip up strong emotion, often of the more irrational variety.

Also, there are Internet anarchists out there, with an agenda to discredit 'the establishment'. Usually, it's the political establisnment, but the scientific establishment might be seen as 'fair game' for them, too. I'm sure attacking climate change sientists and political figures, such as Al Gore, is part of their agenda.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wondering if this happens here, paid trolls.

"Articles about the environment are hit harder by such tactics than any others. I love debate, and I often wade into the threads beneath my columns. But it's a depressing experience, as instead of contesting the issues I raise, many of those who disagree bombard me with infantile abuse, or just keep repeating a fiction, however often you discredit it. This ensures that an intelligent discussion is almost impossible - which appears to be the point."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
very thick fog still here
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Probably posted before, but worth a repeat.

World Bank: Turn Down the Heat

Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5557
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


the sun is about to set over 26w...where is it rising? near the east Atlantic?


im just gonna quote myself for that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Like it's smothered in a severe fog....

Nah, no one is risking their life.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5557


the sun is about to set over 26w...where is it rising? near the east Atlantic?
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Barrow Alaska webcam.
I would not want to live there.


plus everything is so expensive and there is not much to do...
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Quoting beell:

Great stuff!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5557
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wonder why no NWS office has posted winter wether alerts ahead of the upcoming snowstorm for NYC...

is it too early?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
sooo quiet blog.


Like it's smothered in a severe fog....
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
sooo quiet blog.

I think I just heard some crickets chirping...

The 00z GFS had a big snowstorm for parts of the Great Lakes region and temps cold enough for snow and the 5400 line all the way down into N FL.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
sooo quiet blog.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yep...thanks


No problem.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting Civicane49:


See post #828.


yep...thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
look at the center right of this map...
The GFS has been constant with that Canary Is. low there and expected to move south




See post #828.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
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look at the center right of this map...
The GFS has been constant with that Canary Is. low there and expected to move south


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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I didn't see this before on the CPHC

Issued: Nov 25, 2012 2:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon.

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ends on November 30. The final tropical weather outlook of the season will be issued at 8 pm on November 30. We will resume issuing outlooks starting on June 1 of 2013.


Every year, they always put this up about a week before hurricane season ends there.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
I didn't see this before on the CPHC

Issued: Nov 25, 2012 2:00 pm HST

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

No tropical cyclones are expected through Tuesday afternoon.

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ends on November 30. The final tropical weather outlook of the season will be issued at 8 pm on November 30. We will resume issuing outlooks starting on June 1 of 2013.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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000
WTPQ31 PGUM 260303
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 PM CHST MON NOV 26 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP AND FOR CHUUK (LAGOON) IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.4 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NUKUORO
130 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
190 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.


REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...4.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 156.4
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


Well the typhoon season is year-round...so tiring for many to be watchful for typhoons all year long...no rest there. Specially for the Philippines
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839. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27
12:00 PM JST November 26 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marshall Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 4.0N 156.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 4.3N 155.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well guys, we're in the last week of Hurricane Season 2012. It looks like TS Tony was the last storm of the season. Barring any ups in either over the coming weeks, the season will have dealt $68 billion dollars in damage and 327 fatalities. Deadliest since 2008 and most destructive since 2005.


I remember like it was yesterday when the season started and when I first started posting on this blog. It has been a wild ride this year.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7885
Quoting wxgeek723:


I hate saying the 'season' was costly, because most of it is attributed to Isaac and Sandy whereas in 2004, 2005, and 2008 the wealth was spread around several storms.

Well that's you. =P

Costly is costly, no matter how many storms attributed to the overall damage total. One or twenty.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well guys, we're in the last week of Hurricane Season 2012. It looks like TS Tony was the last storm of the season. Barring any ups in either over the coming weeks, the season will have dealt $68 billion dollars in damage and 327 fatalities. Deadliest since 2008 and most destructive since 2005.



I hate saying the 'season' was costly, because most of it is attributed to Isaac and Sandy whereas in 2004, 2005, and 2008 the wealth was spread around several storms.
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835. beell
A stockpile of winter reading material for the weather geek here. The material covered is not the latest and greatest, but plenty of detail.

The Mariners Weather Log

The Mariners Weather Log (MWL), a publication of the National Weather Service (NWS), contains articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact concerns, climatology studies, storms at sea, and weather forecasting. The MWL is dedicated to the NWS Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) Program, Port Meteorological Officers (PMOs), cooperating ships officers, and their vessels...

...The MWL is currently published three (3) times per year (April, August, & December)


A few of the items in the August 2012 Issue (may take a few seconds to load):

Storm Surges in New York Harbor During
Hurricane Irene
Japan Tsunami Debris
Product Changes for the 2012 Hurricane Season

Marine Weather Review
Mean Circulation Highlights and Climate Anomalies %u2013
January through April 2012
Tropical Atlantic and Tropical East Pacific Areas -
January through April 2012
North Atlantic Review: July through December 2011
North Pacific Review: July through December 2011

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15297
Well guys, we're in the last week of Hurricane Season 2012. It looks like TS Tony was the last storm of the season. Barring any ups in either over the coming weeks, the season will have dealt $68 billion dollars in damage and 327 fatalities. Deadliest since 2008 and most destructive since 2005.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm here, aren't I? :)

How are you, friend?


Not literally fool...I have an employee that works at Walmart also. She was disgusted how the customers acted. And the kicker was...there will be no price changes from Black Friday till the season ends.

And you are a friend.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
How are you doing Kori? Survive Black Friday?


I'm here, aren't I? :)

How are you, friend?
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How are you doing Kori? Survive Black Friday?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You should post them on your blog so you and others can look back on them. Also so people can see them after toady.


I suppose I could.

EDIT: And... done.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
If anyone missed it yesterday, I finished my 'Storm History' section of Ernesto's TCR (I'm going to be writing for all storms in both basins, regardless of whether the NHC has completed some of them). Also gonna do a "best track" this year, which is something I've never done before. Wish me luck!







Tropical Cyclone Report
Hurricane Ernesto
(AL052012)
1-10 August

Ernesto moved uneventfully through the Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm before becoming a hurricane as it approached the Yucatan Peninsula. Ernesto then made a second landfall over extreme southeast Mexico as a tropical storm. Ernesto's remnants contributed to the formation of Tropical Storm Hector in the Eastern North Pacific.

a. Storm History

Ernesto's development began when a vigorous tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa on 23 July. While in situ observations are relatively scarce in this area of the Atlantic, ASCAT ambiguities suggest that the wave was of fairly high amplitude, and it contained a vigorous lower- to middle tropospheric cyclonic circulation envelope which appeared to be closed at times. Notwithstanding, there was little overall development for the next several days as the wave marched westward, possibly in response to a large dust-laden airmass associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that prevailed over much of the tropical Atlantic during this time. Possibly enhanced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the wave began showing signs of organization on 28 July, when a broad low pressure area is estimated to have developed along the wave axis. Microwave data (not shown) showed the inner structure beginning to look less skeletal around midday 30 July, which was concurrent with satellite images showing developing banding features.

Subsequently, the tropical wave began to increase in forward speed while gradually turning toward the west-northwest. Development continued, and it is estimated that the system became a tropical depression near 1800 UTC 1 August while centered approximately 700 miles east-southeast of Barbados. The %u201Cbest track%u201Dchart of the tropical cyclone%u2019s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. The depression failed to strengthen initially, and the cloud pattern as a whole was disorganized. Based on a flight from a reconnaissance aircraft and a slightly improved convective presentation in satellite images, the cyclone is assumed to have become a tropical storm around 0000 UTC that day. Ernesto appears to have strengthened a little as it moved through the eastern Caribbean on 4 August, but the low-level center remained displaced to the west of the convection due to westerly speed shear caused by the fast forward motion of the tropical storm as it was steered to the north of a strong subtropical ridge. The cyclone started to lose organization again late that same day, and there is some doubt as to the veracity of a closed circulation during that time.

Little change in strength was noted over the next couple of days as Ernesto continued westward. As the system approached the western Caribbean late on 6 August, however, it began to strengthen, possibly in response to a relative decrease in the forward speed in response to an upper-level trough that was moving into the southern United States. Based on satellite pictures and data from a reconnaissance aircraft, it is estimated that Ernesto became a hurricane just before 1800 UTC 7 August, centered about 250 miles east-northeast of Belize City. Ernesto continued to strengthen up until landfall, reaching its maximum estimated intensity of 75 kt near 0000 UTC 8 August while located about 60 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico. The hurricane made landfall along the southern coast of the Yucatan in a remote area just south of Chetumal just after 0200 UTC at peak intensity. At that time, satellite and aircraft data indicated that Ernesto was strengthening, and could have been going through a rapid deepening phase. The eye briefly became better defined after landfall near 0600 UTC, but the inner core quickly collapsed as the cyclone continued inland. Ernesto weakened below hurricane status near 1200 UTC that day while moving overland.

The cyclone entered the Bay of Campeche a little after 1800 UTC 8 August and began to gradually turn southwestward under a building low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the weakening while over Yucatan, Ernesto's cloud pattern remained well-organized. Based on surface observations and satellite data, Ernesto made a second landfall along the coast of Mexico along the southeast portion of the coast near Coatzacoalcos near 1530 UTC 9 August as a 45-kt tropical storm. The tropical cyclone weakened after landfall, and is estimated to have dissipated over the Sierra Madre Oriental near 0600 UTC 10 August. The remnants -- apparently a mid-level circulation -- continued moving southwestward, where they entered the Eastern North Pacific and contributed to the formation of a large area of disturbed weather which ultimately spawned Tropical Storm Hector.

PDF file if anyone prefers it that way.

You should post them on your blog so you and others can look back on them. Also so people can see them after toady.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
828. Skyepony (Mod)
This low off Africa is about as good as it's gonna get. This is the brief moment where it's almost got a shallow asymmetric warm core, almost subtropical..all the models have it transition back more cold core on it's way to landfall. SST are a little cold.

Fresh OSCAT


Three in a row.. That low off Africa, one hitting the UK & the one up there by Norway..
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827. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27
9:00 AM JST November 26 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marshall Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 3.6N 156.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 3.9N 155.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island

Additional Information
=======================
Tropical Depression will move west northwestward at the same speed for the next 24 hours

Tropical Depression will be upgraded to a tropical storm within 24 hours

System will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature region

Final initial Dvorak number will be 2.0 after 24 hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 4.2N 156.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.2N 156.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 4.7N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 5.2N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 5.6N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 6.0N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 6.7N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 7.7N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 8.9N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 4.3N 156.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z,
262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN
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For West Palm Beach...Nothing above 80...Beautimus!

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824. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And also looks very broad.


& like a twin wants to form just on the other side of the equator.
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822. Skyepony (Mod)
United Kingdom~ Ten homes have been evacuated after a large landslide caused by heavy rain in Old Sodbury, near Bristol. Several thousand tonnes of earth moved in the slip, which happened shortly after 08:00 GMT. People living in the houses have been taken to a local pub while engineers check the area. The police and fire service are also on the scene. The affected families included some with young children, according to the owner of the Dog pub. Another landslide on Friday, in Bath, led to the evacuation of several homes and a house lost part of its garden.
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If anyone missed it yesterday, I finished my 'Storm History' section of Ernesto's TCR (I'm going to be writing for all storms in both basins, regardless of whether the NHC has completed some of them). Also gonna do a "best track" this year, which is something I've never done before. Wish me luck!







Tropical Cyclone Report
Hurricane Ernesto
(AL052012)
1-10 August

Ernesto moved uneventfully through the Caribbean Sea as a tropical storm before becoming a hurricane as it approached the Yucatan Peninsula. Ernesto then made a second landfall over extreme southeast Mexico as a tropical storm. Ernesto's remnants contributed to the formation of Tropical Storm Hector in the Eastern North Pacific.

a. Storm History

Ernesto's development began when a vigorous tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa on 23 July. While in situ observations are relatively scarce in this area of the Atlantic, ASCAT ambiguities suggest that the wave was of fairly high amplitude, and it contained a vigorous lower- to middle tropospheric cyclonic circulation envelope which appeared to be closed at times. Notwithstanding, there was little overall development for the next several days as the wave marched westward, possibly in response to a large dust-laden airmass associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that prevailed over much of the tropical Atlantic during this time. Possibly enhanced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the wave began showing signs of organization on 28 July, when a broad low pressure area is estimated to have developed along the wave axis. Microwave data (not shown) showed the inner structure beginning to look less skeletal around midday 30 July, which was concurrent with satellite images showing developing banding features.

Subsequently, the tropical wave began to increase in forward speed while gradually turning toward the west-northwest. Development continued, and it is estimated that the system became a tropical depression near 1800 UTC 1 August while centered approximately 700 miles east-southeast of Barbados. The %u201Cbest track%u201Dchart of the tropical cyclone%u2019s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. The depression failed to strengthen initially, and the cloud pattern as a whole was disorganized. Based on a flight from a reconnaissance aircraft and a slightly improved convective presentation in satellite images, the cyclone is assumed to have become a tropical storm around 0000 UTC that day. Ernesto appears to have strengthened a little as it moved through the eastern Caribbean on 4 August, but the low-level center remained displaced to the west of the convection due to westerly speed shear caused by the fast forward motion of the tropical storm as it was steered to the north of a strong subtropical ridge. The cyclone started to lose organization again late that same day, and there is some doubt as to the veracity of a closed circulation during that time.

Little change in strength was noted over the next couple of days as Ernesto continued westward. As the system approached the western Caribbean late on 6 August, however, it began to strengthen, possibly in response to a relative decrease in the forward speed in response to an upper-level trough that was moving into the southern United States. Based on satellite pictures and data from a reconnaissance aircraft, it is estimated that Ernesto became a hurricane just before 1800 UTC 7 August, centered about 250 miles east-northeast of Belize City. Ernesto continued to strengthen up until landfall, reaching its maximum estimated intensity of 75 kt near 0000 UTC 8 August while located about 60 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico. The hurricane made landfall along the southern coast of the Yucatan in a remote area just south of Chetumal just after 0200 UTC at peak intensity. At that time, satellite and aircraft data indicated that Ernesto was strengthening, and could have been going through a rapid deepening phase. The eye briefly became better defined after landfall near 0600 UTC, but the inner core quickly collapsed as the cyclone continued inland. Ernesto weakened below hurricane status near 1200 UTC that day while moving overland.

The cyclone entered the Bay of Campeche a little after 1800 UTC 8 August and began to gradually turn southwestward under a building low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the weakening while over Yucatan, Ernesto's cloud pattern remained well-organized. Based on surface observations and satellite data, Ernesto made a second landfall along the coast of Mexico along the southeast portion of the coast near Coatzacoalcos near 1530 UTC 9 August as a 45-kt tropical storm. The tropical cyclone weakened after landfall, and is estimated to have dissipated over the Sierra Madre Oriental near 0600 UTC 10 August. The remnants -- apparently a mid-level circulation -- continued moving southwestward, where they entered the Eastern North Pacific and contributed to the formation of a large area of disturbed weather which ultimately spawned Tropical Storm Hector.

PDF file if anyone prefers it that way.
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Quoting DocNDswamp:


However, I kinda believe the human sacrifice thing wasn't the best of karma for their future!


Ummm... over a million last year in the US!
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Quoting Skyepony:
Sun has only been up 4-5 hrs, D-min should be hard on it. Being that close to the equator has got to be a hindering factor for 26W too. Last thing I see that has passed it looks sloppy. OSCAT



And also looks very broad.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.