Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

TWC has me getting some snow possibly Tuesday... I really hope theyre right!!!

Quoting Neapolitan:
"Record lows out numbering the highs by a significant margin over a couple of weeks time frame"? Oh, you must be talking about that one-week cold spell in early October. I believe I've found it:



At any rate, I was merely echoing Dr. Masters' statement that "unusually warm and precipitation-free conditions prevailed over almost the entire nation on Wednesday and Thursday." I'm not sure how a a one-week cold snap nearly two months ago disproves his statement, or mine.

cherry picked graph....

Quoting Doppler22:
TWC has me getting some snow possibly Tuesday... I really hope theyre right!!!

Tuesday??? I hadn't seen that yet. This is my winter face :( I am not a snow fan anymore. And we are predicted lake effect snow showers tonight and tomorrow. Might as well resign myself to winter, or move to FL with the rest of you :)

Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, dense fog is hardly severe weather. In fact, fog is a stable-weather phenomenon. And that wreck, bad as it was, was in but a single location in Texas--hardly indicative of the nation's delightful Thanksgiving weather as a whole, and nothing on a par with, say, a massive multi-state winter system inconveniencing tens of millions. (Too, there are about 17,000 motor vehicle accidents in the U.S each day; the Texas wreck just happened to involve far more motor vehicles than normal.)

false info dense fog gets an advisory and is considered severe when less than quarter of mile even that dense planes stay on ground glad to help ya understand....

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Record warm doesn't include Fort Myers Fl.
Local Met on the evening news said that Fort Myers has had 17 days of below average temps so far this month.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's been a chilly month up here too. We were warm today and yesterday but still below average for the month, and it looks like the next 5-10 days will be below average.

It has been a lot colder, a lot sooner, than normal here in southeastern North Carolina.

Quoting Neapolitan:
The holiday weather has definitely been remarkably lacking in weather-related drama. In fact, the entire work/travel week has been nice, with record highs over the last four days outnumbering record lows by 248 to 4, a 62:1 ratio)

and next week that number will flip on a global scale...

Quoting yoboi:



false info dense fog gets an advisory and is considered severe when less than quarter of mile even that dense planes stay on ground glad to help ya understand....

No, Nea is correct. Severe weather encompasses an array of things, just not fog: tornadoes, downbursts, squall lines, tropical cyclones, waterspouts, intense extratropical cyclones, dust storms, wildfires, hail, heavy rainfall and flooding, ice and snow, and droughts and heatwaves.

Quoting yoboi:



cherry picked graph....

I doubt a graph produced by the National Climactic Data Center is "cherry picked".

.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It has been a lot colder, a lot sooner, than normal here in southeastern North Carolina.

been below average in la also for the month...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, Nea is correct. Severe weather encompasses an array of things, just not fog: tornadoes, downbursts, squall lines, tropical cyclones, waterspouts, intense extratropical cyclones, dust storms, wildfires, hail, heavy rainfall and flooding, ice and snow, and droughts and heatwaves.

I'm trying to understand ...are the ones put out only "local"? I hear/see advisories for fog ...just trying to understand what is dfferent? Is it the agency that puts out the warning?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, Nea is correct. Severe weather encompasses an array of things, just not fog: tornadoes, downbursts, squall lines, tropical cyclones, waterspouts, intense extratropical cyclones, dust storms, wildfires, hail, heavy rainfall and flooding, ice and snow, and droughts and heatwaves.

nws in la considers it severe when less than quarter mile vis...

Quoting beell:


FOS comment...

did not include all 50 states so it's cherry picked...

90W in the West Pacific:



The GFS suggests this system will break an extended slow stretch out there by becoming a powerful typhoon, but the Euro doesn't even hint at developing it so I'm not real sure what to make of it. Clearly one of those two models is about to be badly embarrassed.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It has been a lot colder, a lot sooner, than normal here in southeastern North Carolina.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It has been a lot colder, a lot sooner, than normal here in southeastern North Carolina.

same here around Tampa bay..these cold fronts are a bit stronger this year,January is usually when we get this,if this keeps up a hard freeze might be coming,bet the citrus people are really worried about their tree's this coming winter.

Quoting txjac:


I'm trying to understand ...are the ones put out only "local"? I hear/see advisories for fog ...just trying to understand what is dfferent? Is it the agency that puts out the warning?

nws here issues severe warn when vis less than quarter mile...

Quoting yoboi:


nws in la considers it severe when less than quarter mile vis...

Since fog indicates and is stable weather it really isn't severe weather.

Quoting yoboi:


nws here issues severe warn when vis less than quarter mile...

There are just advisories for fog though(dense fog advisories or special weather statements for fog)

Quoting yoboi:


nws here issues severe warn when vis less than quarter mile...

Fog is just a cloud. That's not severe weather. However, the effects of fog can be severe, so it gets warnings issued when it becomes dense, as it should.

Today marks the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Iwa hit the Hawaiian Islands on November 23, 1982.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
231 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2012

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SOME AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET
SEEN A FREEZE WARNING THIS SEASON...

LAZ012-013-TXZ152-240445-
/O.NEW.KSHV.FZ.W.0005.121124T0700Z-121124T1300Z/
BIENVILLE-JACKSON-NACOGDOCHES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...NACOGDOCHES
231 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CST SATURDAY.

* EVENT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION TONIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

* TIMING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACT...TENDER VEGETATION WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO COLD RELATED
DAMAGE. ADDITIONALLY...PET OWNERS MAY NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT OUTDOOR PETS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

Quoting Civicane49:
Today marks the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Iwa hit the Hawaiian Islands on November 23, 1982.

They're well overdue for a big storm out there.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Since fog indicates and is stable weather it really isn't severe weather.

so stable weather grounds planes for take off aand landings???

Quoting wxchaser97:

Since fog indicates and is stable weather it really isn't severe weather.

Fog scares me ...I have a hard time breathing when driving in it ...kind of claustrophbic I guess ...being raised a Catholic ...it kind of reminds me what purgatory would be like?

Quoting txjac:


I'm trying to understand ...are the ones put out only "local"? I hear/see advisories for fog ...just trying to understand what is dfferent? Is it the agency that puts out the warning?

The NWS issues fog advisories. Fog can kill people. It probably is most dangerous when dense fog occurs over a small extent. People think visibility is fine and then run into a thick cloud on the ground even in broad daylight. When that happens there is not much they can do. That is why Tennessee went to so much trouble to be able to close I-75 when necessary in Calhoun. See The Fog Lights Have Been Activated on I-75: Now I Understand the Significance of that Statement

90W in the Western Pacific:



96S in South Indian Ocean:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

They're well overdue for a big storm out there.

Yep.

Motorists around the Great Lakes to the central and northern Appalachians this weekend are advised to be alert for rapidly changing traction conditions and to allow extra stopping distance between vehicles during the snow showers.

For a large percentage of the area, this would be the first snow event of the season. Roads do not yet have a snow-melting residue on them and can get slippery very quickly.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Fog is just a cloud. That's not severe weather. However, the effects of fog can be severe, so it gets warnings issued when it becomes dense, as it should.

then call my local noaa to not issue a warning on my noaa radio when fog is dense...by the way they do consider it severe weather when vis below quarter a mile...

Quoting LargoFl:
Motorists around the Great Lakes to the central and northern Appalachians this weekend are advised to be alert for rapidly changing traction conditions and to allow extra stopping distance between vehicles during the snow showers.

For a large percentage of the area, this would be the first snow event of the season. Roads do not yet have a snow-melting residue on them and can get slippery very quickly.

Was it last year or the year before that the barges carrying the salt for the roads was iced in on Lake Erie?

Quoting yoboi:


then call my local noaa to not issue a warning on my noaa radio when fog is dense...by the way they do consider it severe weather when vis below quarter a mile...

I think you misread my comment. I support the policy of issuing advisories for dense fog, it can be very dangerous.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
90W in the West Pacific:



The GFS suggests this system will break an extended slow stretch out there by becoming a powerful typhoon, but the Euro doesn't even hint at developing it so I'm not real sure what to make of it. Clearly one of those two models is about to be badly embarrassed.

Well, 90W is at roughly 1N. It's going to be hard for something to wind up with it as close to the equator as it is. I see this becoming a tropical storm, but not a powerful typhoon.

Severe Weather Alerts | NBC Southern California DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS ... A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITY WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED ...

Quoting yoboi:


then call my local noaa to not issue a warning on my noaa radio when fog is dense...by the way they do consider it severe weather when vis below quarter a mile...

They issue advisories for fog, not warnings. Fog isn't severe weather but it does have some harmful effects.

Quoting bappit:

The NWS issues fog advisories. Fog can kill people. It probably is most dangerous when dense fog occurs over a small extent. People think visibility is fine and then run into a thick cloud on the ground even in broad daylight. When that happens there is not much they can do. That is why Tennessee went to so much trouble to be able to close I-75 when necessary in Calhoun. See The Fog Lights Have Been Activated on I-75: Now I Understand the Significance of that Statement

it's considered sever weather...

the big news for the south is freezing temps earlier in the year

Quoting yoboi:



false info dense fog gets an advisory and is considered severe when less than quarter of mile even that dense planes stay on ground glad to help ya understand....

Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, dense fog is hardly severe weather. In fact, fog is a stable-weather phenomenon. And that wreck, bad as it was, was in but a single location in Texas--hardly indicative of the nation's delightful Thanksgiving weather as a whole, and nothing on a par with, say, a massive multi-state winter system inconveniencing tens of millions. (Too, there are about 17,000 motor vehicle accidents in the U.S each day; the Texas wreck just happened to involve far more motor vehicles than normal.)

What does "a single location" have to do with this being a severe weather event or not? We get sea fog with zero visibility that shuts down airports, interstates and shipping channels. When the NWS puts out dense fog advisories and everything shuts down I call that severe weather.

Severe Weather Alerts | NBC Southern California DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS ... A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITY WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED ...
www.nbclosangeles.com/weather/severe-weather-aler ts

Some other incidents. People seem unaware of the danger.

"A15 Motorway near Ochten, Netherlands, due to fog, 150 vehicles, 1 death, 64 injuries.

Jubilee Parkway in Mobile, Alabama, United States, due to fog, 200 vehicles, 1 death, 90 injuries

E17 motorway near Nazareth, Belgium, due to fog.

M42 motorway in the United Kingdom, due to fog %u2013 160 vehicles involved, 3 deaths, 60 injuries.

Interstate 75 in Catoosa County, Georgia, United States, due to one-time sudden fog, about 125 vehicles

Interstate 710 in Los Angeles County, California, United States, around 200 vehicles, due to dense fog

Interstate 96 in Ingham County, Michigan, United States, around 200 vehicles, due to dense fog leaving 2 dead and 35 injured

near Helsinki, Finland, around 300 cars crashed on highways leading to the capital, 3 deaths and 60 injuries. Visibility was very poor due to heavy snowfall and a week of clear weather had given drivers a false impression of safety."

I could post more. See the multi-vehicle accident article on Wikipedia.

Edit: The article even lists yesterday's event.

"Interstate I-10 - Both directions - Jefferson County line, Texas. 150-vehicle pileup on foggy Texas highway leaves 2 dead, 100 hurt"

Quoting clwstmchasr:


What does "a single location" have to do with this being a severe weather event or not? We get sea fog with zero visibility that shuts down airports, interstates and shipping channels. When the NWS puts out dense fog advisories and everything shuts down I call that severe weather.

i agree i put up links showing nws considers it severe nea just making stuff up....

texas crash,can you imagine..a 2 mile long,140 cars and trucks..all mashed together..omg

Quoting yoboi:


it's considered sever weather...

Not really, link. There is no mention of fog as severe weather.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Not really, link.

Severe Weather Alerts | NBC Southern California DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS ... A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITY WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED ...
www.nbclosangeles.com/weather/severe-weather-aler ts/

Quoting bappit:
Some other incidents. People seem unaware of the danger.

"A15 Motorway near Ochten, Netherlands, due to fog, 150 vehicles, 1 death, 64 injuries.

Jubilee Parkway in Mobile, Alabama, United States, due to fog, 200 vehicles, 1 death, 90 injuries

E17 motorway near Nazareth, Belgium, due to fog.

M42 motorway in the United Kingdom, due to fog %u2013 160 vehicles involved, 3 deaths, 60 injuries.

Interstate 75 in Catoosa County, Georgia, United States, due to one-time sudden fog, about 125 vehicles

Interstate 710 in Los Angeles County, California, United States, around 200 vehicles, due to dense fog

Interstate 96 in Ingham County, Michigan, United States, around 200 vehicles, due to dense fog leaving 2 dead and 35 injured

near Helsinki, Finland, around 300 cars crashed on highways leading to the capital, 3 deaths and 60 injuries. Visibility was very poor due to heavy snowfall and a week of clear weather had given drivers a false impression of safety."

I could post more. See the multi-vehicle accident article on Wikipedia.

Edit: The article even lists yesterday's event.

"Interstate I-10 - Both directions - Jefferson County line, Texas. 150-vehicle pileup on foggy Texas highway leaves 2 dead, 100 hurt"

also the worst car pile up was on i-10 in la over 300 cars due to fog

NWS FAQ

4.1 How does the National Weather Service define severe weather?

There are many forms of hazardous, or severe weather. The primary mission of the National Weather Service is to provide forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property. Forecasts can range from the climate and seasonal outlooks for agricultural interests provided by the Climate Prediction Center (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov), to the daily county forecasts for the public issued by local NWS offices. The NWS issues warnings for heavy snow, freezing rain, high winds, flash flooding, river flooding, thunderstorms, tornadoes, tropical storms, and hurricanes. In a broad sense, these are all defined as severe weather as any of them can and do pose a threat to life and property.

To move us past the pointless argument over fog, vertical instability across a good portion of the Atlantic actually ended up average to slightly above average this season...the Gulf, off the East Coast, and in the subtropical Atlantic in specific. This is probably why we saw a high number of hurricanes: Chris, Ernesto, Gordon, Isaac, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Rafarl, Sandy. Meanwhile, the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic ended up quite a bit below average, and we obviously saw a lot of struggling storms there for the early and middle portion of the year.

"There are many forms of hazardous, or severe weather."

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
To move us past the pointless argument over fog, ...

Ignorance is bliss.

VISIBILITY
A measure of the opacity of the atmosphere, and therefore, the greatest distance one can see prominent objects with normal eyesight. The National Weather Service has various terms for visibility. Surface visibility is the prevailing visibility determined from the usual point of observation. Prevailing visibility is considered representative of visibility conditions at the station. Sector visibility is the visibility in a specified direction that represents at least a 45 degree arc of the horizon circle. Tower visibility is the prevailing visibility determined from the airport traffic control tower (ATCT) at stations that also report surface visibility