Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A tranquil and record-warm Thanksgiving for much of the U.S.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:35 PM GMT on November 23, 2012 +36
Celebrations of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in 2012 were aided by some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week. Unusually warm and precipitation-free conditions prevailed over almost the entire nation on Wednesday and Thursday, with many locations in the Midwest reporting their warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. At least three cities set records for their warmest temperature ever recorded so late in the year: Valentine, Nebraska (76° on Wednesday); Rochester, Minnesota (70° on Wednesday); and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan (65° on Thursday.) While the quiet weather was a boon for travelers, the lack of rain in the Midwest allowed the nation's worst drought since 1954 to expand; the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought expanded by 1% to 60% this week. This reversed a seven-week trend of slowly decreasing drought that began on September 25 and extended until November 13, when the area covered by drought declined from 65% to 59%. The latest ten-day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models show much below average chances of precipitation across more 90% of the U.S., including the drought regions. These dry conditions will allow the drought to expand over the next two weeks, and potentially cover 65% of the contiguous U.S. again by mid-December. The next chance for significant rains in excess of one inch in the Midwest will not occur until December 2, at the earliest. The lack of rain will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by December 10, when the river may fall below the level of -5 feet at St. Louis needed to allow barges to not scrape bottom.


Figure 1. This week's U.S. Drought Monitor shows 60% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.


Figure 2. Predicted 8-day precipitation amounts from the 06Z (1 am EST) November 23, 2012 run of the GFS model. For the 8-day period ending on Saturday, December 1, only the Northwest Coast, Central Gulf Coast, and portions of the Tennessee Valley are predicted to receive rains in excess of one inch. Image credit: NOAA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models is forecasting tropical cyclone development between now and the Friday, November 30 official end of hurricane season. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of one more named storm forming in December in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, but late-season storms forming in that location rarely affect land.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters
I Am Thankful (pasocorto)
I Am Thankful
HappyThanksgiving! (suzi46)
to all our wonderful WU Community..a frigid and frosty daybreak at our neighbor's pond..heading up to a sunny and beautiful 50 degree afternoon..:)
HappyThanksgiving!
there's always light.. (mieke)
there's always light..
Thanksgiving day parade (Outsideshot)
What a blast. Taken from 54th street and 6ave.
Thanksgiving day parade
Categories: Drought Heat
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751. yoboi 10:40 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting Tazmanian:




this is from the 18z so far


its forcasting up too 18" of rain





elnino??
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2421
752. Tazmanian 10:41 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting yoboi:



elnino??



no
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111361
753. yoboi 10:43 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting Tazmanian:



no



that's alot of rain for not being in elnino...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2421
754. whitewabit (Mod) 10:44 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting Tazmanian:




this is from the 18z so far


its forcasting up too 18" of rain




That's a lot of rain Taz ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 324 Comments: 24141
755. RTSplayer 10:47 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting yoboi:




why do you think we should all make the same amount of money??? why do ya push that agenda????


Never said that. You read something into my statement that wasn't there.


I think if people are worth more they should make more, but nobody is worth what corporate CEO's make, and I mean absolutely nobody, and least of all entertainers and athletes.

What is a fair standard of "Wealthy"?

Should the people at the top of the curve make 1000 times the median income, even when they could settle for 100 times and give most of their employees a couple thousand dollars to maybe 10,000 per year raise? Do you really believe that's fair?

You know how much money that is over an individual employee's career? That's far more than most people end up saving for retirement currently in their life time, even on the low-ball end, and if you got to the middle or high end it could pay for a house. In fact, it's a big part of the reason they don't have money to save for retirement currently, because they're being screwed by their employer(s).

Are executives and entertainers really worth a million, ten million or more per year? Or is that just a lie everyone has been brainwashed to believe?


Do you really believe Mark Zuckerberg "should" make as much money as he does? For what? Starting a failed advertising agency which masquerades as a gossip engine?

Do you really believe oil executives or automotive executives should make as much money as they do? Or even executives in financial corporations? After all, they too contributed enormously to the recession. How does a financial firm which was only paying one fourth of one percent on an IRA (but presumably should have been making ten times that in the stock market,) how did they go broke, and have nothing to show for it? Same for 401k investments. All those people's investments evaporated to nothing, without public warning, with no assets, not on paper or in material assets, to show for it?! I still have a strong suspicion much of the money was actually bilked away and hidden in foreign accounts or assets somewhere. Do you REALLY think they, or anyone, deserves the salary and benefits they receive?


It's absolutely ridiculous.

So at what point would you admit all of these people are severely over paid to everyone else's detriment?!
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875
756. Tropicsweatherpr 10:50 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Here is the Prognostic Reasoning from JTWC for TD 26W.

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 251925Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING; HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS
FRAGMENTED AND THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN.
THEREFORE, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THIS STRUCTURE AS
WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE LLCC
WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 26W
APPEARS TO BE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STR BUT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS
IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE
STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO NOGAPS, GFS AND WBAR,
WHICH ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF, GFDN,
EGRR AND JGSM TRACKERS ALL POORLY INITIALIZE THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM AND WERE UNAVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND THE LACK OF DYNAMIC AIDS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND
ANALYSES ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG STR AND SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL BE A STRAIGHT-
RUNNER. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE
LLCC CONSOLIDATES BUT IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD YAP AND WILL INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO A PEAK NEAR 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS
POSITIONED FASTER BUT CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8270
757. HadesGodWyvern 10:51 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27
6:00 AM JST November 26 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marshall Islands

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 3.4N 156.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 3.6N 155.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36691
758. goalexgo 10:55 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting Dragod66:
I'm looking for a snow forecast for Wednesday and Thursday for Eastern Us/Canada... Anyone help me out?
Sure. Snow Flurry Felicia will approach the NYC area on Tuesday, immediately followed by Partly Cloudy and Blustery System Ignatious.
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 126
759. MidMOwx 11:09 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Greetings from central Missouri. Long time lurker, first time poster.

The weather has been docile in the area for some time. I'm excited at the prospects of snow flurries here tomorrow before temperatures rebound into the 50's later in the week.
Member Since: November 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
760. PensacolaDoug 11:10 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    



Barrow Alaska webcam.
I would not want to live there.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828
761. Naga5000 11:13 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I agree. Since when has the governmnet ever run anything efficiently?


This is a common fallacious argument. I could name a number of great government agencies like the CDC, NTSB, FCC, Federal Maritime Commission (FMC), etc, and you could name a bunch of poorly run ones just the same. Making a black and white argument about government doesn't work. Yes there are agencies with problems, but there are some shining examples of government efficiency.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 458
762. EstherD 11:19 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Barrow Alaska webcam.
I would not want to live there.


Temps in the 90's and dewpoints in the 70's most of the year? I would not want to live there. :)

Different strokes for different folks, as we used to say.
Member Since: November 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 60
763. RTSplayer 11:24 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting captainmark:
Your thought process is 100% communist. I bet you would look cute wearing one of those green caps that Castro wears.


Not really.

I'm not a communist.

It's easy enough for one to spit out the word "communist" invoking some scare of cold war era Russian, or China's oppression of Christians (yet allegedly Christian Republicans insist on selling everyone out to them).

Yet that's not me, and not by quite a long margin.

It's easy to poison the well by immediately associating ideas of social justice with "OMG, communism! Run for the hills." As though "Capitalism" has some sort of monopoly on morality within government or fiscal policies. One need only look at the history of the U.S. to realize that our non-communist ancestors committed not one, but two of the greatest human atrocities in recent world history: via the "Trail of Tears" and the butchering of Native Americans, and by being one of the last nations to abolish slavery. It seems our democracy committed worse crimes than nearly anyone since about 2000 years prior.


Yet, when a communist idea ends up making the most sense, hey, let's be a communist!

China's birth limitation is a very wise and moral thing, as it turns out, because it protects the children from the foolishness of their parents, who would otherwise have more children than they can reasonably support. If such a policy were implemented in other, such as many African nations, then within a generation much of their poverty and violence would be halted. Well, most of the "Smart" couples in the U.S. are already self-regulating to just one or two children, because they recognize the financial wisdom in this (or else they may just be selfish in some cases and want to save for their own desires, so they do the right thing for the wrong reasons in some cases,) but either way, that's better than doing the wrong thing for the right reasons, or doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons.

Gasp, *shock* the horror! People shouldn't have more children than is reasonable.

I say this a a middle child among three, but I had great aunts and uncles who were part of a "liter" of 12 to 16 kids, and they were all poor as dirt because of it. I consider it child abuse. I even consider the "nineteen kids and counting" people on television as child abuse, in spite of the fact they make more money. Their relationships with their children are impersonal. They are treated as numbers, almost like pets or livestock, but I suppose not quite.

Anyway, ten kids having ten kids is immoral, and perhaps we've reached the point in the world where three kids having three kids is immoral, because the world can't contain their needs.


I try to be a realist, although much of a futurist as well.

I just want realistic long term planning between people and government to solve problems permanently for the good of everyone, not just the short term profits of a few selfish individuals, and I recognize that what exists in the U.S. currently is by no means fair nor realistic.

You may say something snide, such as "life's not fair," well, it could certainly be a lot more fair than it is now anyway, it's within the power of this generation to make it so, perhaps more than any previous.


Our very declaration of independence declares that all men are created equal.

Well, perhaps that's not true, but the point is we ought to strive to have equal rights, and modern capitalism does not actually provide that at all.

What we have today is actually much more like Orwell's Animal Farm, where the pigs changed it to say, "All animals are created equal, but some or more equal than others!"

It was claimed that the book was a satire of communism, but I rather think he may well have been mocking the U.S. just as much.

there's little enough difference between corporate leaders today and monarchies of the past. They have too much power and too much of the wealth. The Republicans claim to be for small businesses, and yet most people considered "small businesses" make no more than the median income, if they are lucky to make that, meanwhile the corporate chains are everywhere. The same Wal-Mart and other shopping centers, and the same fast food chains and the same specialty chains all exist from one town to the next, right around the entire nation. As long as people continue to fall into this trap, it will only get worse.

It's not that centralization of knowledge and logistics is a bad thing, it's not conceptually. The problem is the people over the corporations bilk both their employees and their customers through unfair prices and unfair wages, while they make orders of magnitude more income than most.


How is that moral?

You can call me a communist if you like.

I'm not (fundamentally,) but I'd rather be a moral communist than an immoral capitalist.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875
764. whitewabit (Mod) 11:24 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Barrow Alaska webcam.
I would not want to live there.


I have lived further north then that and its really not too bad ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 324 Comments: 24141
765. yoboi 11:26 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting RTSplayer:


Never said that. You read something into my statement that wasn't there.


I think if people are worth more they should make more, but nobody is worth what corporate CEO's make, and I mean absolutely nobody, and least of all entertainers and athletes.

What is a fair standard of "Wealthy"?

Should the people at the top of the curve make 1000 times the median income, even when they could settle for 100 times and give most of their employees a couple thousand dollars to maybe 10,000 per year raise? Do you really believe that's fair?

You know how much money that is over an individual employee's career? That's far more than most people end up saving for retirement currently in their life time, even on the low-ball end, and if you got to the middle or high end it could pay for a house. In fact, it's a big part of the reason they don't have money to save for retirement currently, because they're being screwed by their employer(s).

Are executives and entertainers really worth a million, ten million or more per year? Or is that just a lie everyone has been brainwashed to believe?


Do you really believe Mark Zuckerberg "should" make as much money as he does? For what? Starting a failed advertising agency which masquerades as a gossip engine?

Do you really believe oil executives or automotive executives should make as much money as they do? Or even executives in financial corporations? After all, they too contributed enormously to the recession. How does a financial firm which was only paying one fourth of one percent on an IRA (but presumably should have been making ten times that in the stock market,) how did they go broke, and have nothing to show for it? Same for 401k investments. All those people's investments evaporated to nothing, without public warning, with no assets, not on paper or in material assets, to show for it?! I still have a strong suspicion much of the money was actually bilked away and hidden in foreign accounts or assets somewhere. Do you REALLY think they, or anyone, deserves the salary and benefits they receive?


It's absolutely ridiculous.

So at what point would you admit all of these people are severely over paid to everyone else's detriment?!




i think if i start a business take the risk and work hard i should be able to make all i can
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2421
766. yoboi 11:33 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting RTSplayer:


Not really.

I'm not a communist.

It's easy enough for one to spit out the word "communist" invoking some scare of cold war era Russian, or China's oppression of Christians (yet allegedly Christian Republicans insist on selling everyone out to them).

Yet that's not me, and not by quite a long margin.

It's easy to poison the well by immediately associating ideas of social justice with "OMG, communism! Run for the hills." As though "Capitalism" has some sort of monopoly on morality within government or fiscal policies. One need only look at the history of the U.S. to realize that our non-communist ancestors committed not one, but two of the greatest human atrocities in recent world history: via the "Trail of Tears" and the butchering of Native Americans, and by being one of the last nations to abolish slavery. It seems our democracy committed worse crimes than nearly anyone since about 2000 years prior.


Yet, when a communist idea ends up making the most sense, hey, let's be a communist!

China's birth limitation is a very wise and moral thing, as it turns out, because it protects the children from the foolishness of their parents, who would otherwise have more children than they can reasonably support. If such a policy were implemented in other, such as many African nations, then within a generation much of their poverty and violence would be halted. Well, most of the "Smart" couples in the U.S. are already self-regulating to just one or two children, because they recognize the financial wisdom in this (or else they may just be selfish in some cases and want to save for their own desires, so they do the right thing for the wrong reasons in some cases,) but either way, that's better than doing the wrong thing for the right reasons, or doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons.

Gasp, *shock* the horror! People shouldn't have more children than is reasonable.

I say this a a middle child among three, but I had great aunts and uncles who were part of a "liter" of 12 to 16 kids, and they were all poor as dirt because of it. I consider it child abuse. I even consider the "nineteen kids and counting" people on television as child abuse, in spite of the fact they make more money. Their relationships with their children are impersonal. They are treated as numbers, almost like pets or livestock, but I suppose not quite.

Anyway, ten kids having ten kids is immoral, and perhaps we've reached the point in the world where three kids having three kids is immoral, because the world can't contain their needs.


I try to be a realist, although much of a futurist as well.

I just want realistic long term planning between people and government to solve problems permanently for the good of everyone, not just the short term profits of a few selfish individuals, and I recognize that what exists in the U.S. currently is by no means fair nor realistic.

You may say something snide, such as "life's not fair," well, it could certainly be a lot more fair than it is now anyway, it's within the power of this generation to make it so, perhaps more than any previous.


Our very declaration of independence declares that all men are created equal.

Well, perhaps that's not true, but the point is we ought to strive to have equal rights, and modern capitalism does not actually provide that at all.

What we have today is actually much more like Orwell's Animal Farm, where the pigs changed it to say, "All animals are created equal, but some or more equal than others!"

It was claimed that the book was a satire of communism, but I rather think he may well have been mocking the U.S. just as much.

there's little enough difference between corporate leaders today and monarchies of the past. They have too much power and too much of the wealth. The Republicans claim to be for small businesses, and yet most people considered "small businesses" make no more than the median income, if they are lucky to make that, meanwhile the corporate chains are everywhere. The same Wal-Mart and other shopping centers, and the same fast food chains and the same specialty chains all exist from one town to the next, right around the entire nation. As long as people continue to fall into this trap, it will only get worse.

It's not that centralization of knowledge and logistics is a bad thing, it's not conceptually. The problem is the people over the corporations bilk both their employees and their customers through unfair prices and unfair wages, while they make orders of magnitude more income than most.


How is that moral?

You can call me a communist if you like.

I'm not (fundamentally,) but I'd rather be a moral communist than an immoral capitalist.



most chain stores started as just one store and expanded thru hard work and taking risk some have done great but many have failed.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2421
767. PensacolaDoug 11:34 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting EstherD:


Temps in the 90's and dewpoints in the 70's most of the year? I would not want to live there. :)

Different strokes for different folks, as we used to say.



Touche
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828
769. txjac 11:39 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting yoboi:




i think if i start a business take the risk and work hard i should be able to make all i can


I agree with that. Here's what makes me angry. Two people in my family - one working as a pipe fitter/plumber working in a union shop (community college two year degree) , the other a highly trained cardiac critical care nurse. Union working = 70.00 an hour in Ohio, cardiac critical care nurse = 56.00 and hour.

Now why does a person that works with welding rods think that he should out earn a highly ediucated nurse?

This is a big part of what needs to change to make USA once again successful
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
771. PensacolaDoug 11:41 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
What happened to 768? Man that was quick!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828
772. yoboi 11:43 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting txjac:


I agree with that. Here's what makes me angry. Two people in my family - one working as a pipe fitter/plumber working in a union shop (community college two year degree) , the other a highly trained cardiac critical care nurse. Union working = 70.00 an hour in Ohio, cardiac critical care nurse = 56.00 and hour.

Now why does a person that works with welding rods think that he should out earn a highly ediucated nurse?

This is a big part of what needs to change to make USA once again successful



wait until the new health care laws kicks in that nurse will be making half that.....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2421
773. LargoFl 11:46 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting MidMOwx:
Greetings from central Missouri. Long time lurker, first time poster.

The weather has been docile in the area for some time. I'm excited at the prospects of snow flurries here tomorrow before temperatures rebound into the 50's later in the week.
hello and thanks for Delurking
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
774. wxchaser97 11:47 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
What happened to 768? Man that was quick!

All of his posts are gone. He was either hit with the ban hammer or just they all got removed.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 89 Comments: 6823
775. txjac 11:49 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting wxchaser97:

All of his posts are gone. He was either hit with the ban hammer or just they all got removed.


Who was 768?

Forget it ...I figured it out
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
776. LargoFl 11:49 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Just walked the dogs, feels alot colder than 56.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
777. wxchaser97 11:50 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting txjac:


Who was 768?

RTSplayer
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 89 Comments: 6823
778. txjac 11:50 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:
Just walked the dogs, feels alot colder than 56.......


I walked the dog and it feels a lot warmer than 76 here. Need some more cool weather
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
779. LargoFl 11:52 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting whitewabit:


That's a lot of rain Taz ..
..yes that sure IS alot of rain, if this pans out..california will have the mud slides once again
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
780. LargoFl 11:53 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting txjac:


I walked the dog and it feels a lot warmer than 76 here. Need some more cool weather
..LOL, i wish it was 76 here now..this was a strong cold front this weekend..sure knocked our temps down alot..but its supposed to warm up this week
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
781. LargoFl 11:55 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
782. LargoFl 11:56 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
stay alert over there txjac..bad weather coming to you....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
783. CaneFreeCR 11:57 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
There is one small point of comfort in this discussion of AGW -- climate does indeed follow cycles, natural or induced/forced. AGW, with the predicted temperature increases over several centuries (a tiny bit of time geologically), will undoubtedly trigger another Carboniferous Age, in which the fossil fuels used up by humans will be replaced over a couple of hundred million years. But I doubt if humans will survive to repeat the current cycle! Too bad -- the weather then should be ... interesting.
Member Since: August 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
784. FSUCOOPman 11:58 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting yoboi:




i think if i start a business take the risk and work hard i should be able to make all i can


What risk?

If a large company is about to go under due to poor business practices, say predatory lending... Nowadays, the taxpayers bail them out.

This is what I have a problem with... You can't have it both ways. Either you're taking the risk, and with that risk you are allowed to actually fail. Or, you're not really taking a risk.
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 332
785. txjac 11:58 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:
stay alert over there txjac..bad weather coming to you....


Wow, thanks ...hadnt even looked as I thought it was just going to be more of the same ...hope some of the rain gets to bohonk man!
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1569
786. LargoFl 11:58 PM GMT on November 25, 2012    
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
787. LargoFl 12:00 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
Quoting txjac:


Wow, thanks ...hadnt even looked as I thought it was just going to be more of the same ...hope some of the rain gets to bohonk man!
..yes looks like he will be getting some
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
788. wxchaser97 12:00 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
I wish I was getting this much snow, that is later in winter for me. Lake effect snow warnings are in affect for this area. Yes, heavy lake-effect snow is severe weather.

Mesoscale discussion 2122
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 89 Comments: 6823
789. LargoFl 12:02 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
feels like christmas lol..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
790. MidMOwx 12:04 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:


Thanks for the welcome. That's quite a large spread in overnight temperatures in the graphic you posted @781. The Gulf of Mexico waters must be flexing their muscle for the coastal areas keeping them substantially warmer.

Is there much in the way of citrus in the areas dropping to the 20's?
Member Since: November 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
791. LargoFl 12:04 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A QUICK BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW...THEN
END DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LESS
THAN 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...IF THIS FEATURE BECOMES STRONGER...WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE POSTED FOR A FEW...MOST FAVORED COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

KTB
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
792. wxchaser97 12:05 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
The Arklatex, and parts of Mississippi, region could get some severe weather tomorrow. This severe weather would be in the from of large hail and damaging winds.

Day 2 convective outlook
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 89 Comments: 6823
793. LargoFl 12:07 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
Quoting MidMOwx:


Thanks for the welcome. That's quite a large spread in overnight temperatures in the graphic you posted @781. The Gulf of Mexico waters must be flexing their muscle for the coastal areas keeping them substantially warmer.

Is there much in the way of citrus in the areas dropping to the 20's?
Quoting MidMOwx:


Thanks for the welcome. That's quite a large spread in overnight temperatures in the graphic you posted @781. The Gulf of Mexico waters must be flexing their muscle for the coastal areas keeping them substantially warmer.

Is there much in the way of citrus in the areas dropping to the 20's?
..hi yes there is some but most of the orchards have moved south of..hmmm say tampa- orlando line in central florida southward..so far in my area..no frost or freeze this time..but north of me in leavy county they had the freeze
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794. LargoFl 12:09 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
107 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...AND HERNANDO
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER COUNTY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.A COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A FEW
HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED IN
ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES.
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795. Civicane49 12:10 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
26W is continuing to consolidate.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 62 Comments: 3934
796. Civicane49 12:12 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 62 Comments: 3934
797. CosmicEvents 12:14 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I agree. Since when has the governmnet ever run anything efficiently?
The NWS is a perfect example of a government agency that provides the citizens with information more efficiently than any combination of private companies could do, and they don't use any guns:P
.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099
798. MidMOwx 12:16 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
Quoting LargoFl:
..hi yes there is some but most of the orchards have moved south of..hmmm say tampa- orlando line in central florida southward..so far in my area..no frost or freeze this time..but north of me in leavy county they had the freeze


Thanks Largo.

My WFO (Pleasant Hill, MO NWS) forecast for tomorrow.

Member Since: November 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
799. captainmark 12:18 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
Quoting RTSplayer:


Not really.

I'm not a communist.

It's easy enough for one to spit out the word "communist" invoking some scare of cold war era Russian, or China's oppression of Christians (yet allegedly Christian Republicans insist on selling everyone out to them).

Yet that's not me, and not by quite a long margin.

It's easy to poison the well by immediately associating ideas of social justice with "OMG, communism! Run for the hills." As though "Capitalism" has some sort of monopoly on morality within government or fiscal policies. One need only look at the history of the U.S. to realize that our non-communist ancestors committed not one, but two of the greatest human atrocities in recent world history: via the "Trail of Tears" and the butchering of Native Americans, and by being one of the last nations to abolish slavery. It seems our democracy committed worse crimes than nearly anyone since about 2000 years prior.


Yet, when a communist idea ends up making the most sense, hey, let's be a communist!

China's birth limitation is a very wise and moral thing, as it turns out, because it protects the children from the foolishness of their parents, who would otherwise have more children than they can reasonably support. If such a policy were implemented in other, such as many African nations, then within a generation much of their poverty and violence would be halted. Well, most of the "Smart" couples in the U.S. are already self-regulating to just one or two children, because they recognize the financial wisdom in this (or else they may just be selfish in some cases and want to save for their own desires, so they do the right thing for the wrong reasons in some cases,) but either way, that's better than doing the wrong thing for the right reasons, or doing the wrong thing for the wrong reasons.

Gasp, *shock* the horror! People shouldn't have more children than is reasonable.

I say this a a middle child among three, but I had great aunts and uncles who were part of a "liter" of 12 to 16 kids, and they were all poor as dirt because of it. I consider it child abuse. I even consider the "nineteen kids and counting" people on television as child abuse, in spite of the fact they make more money. Their relationships with their children are impersonal. They are treated as numbers, almost like pets or livestock, but I suppose not quite.

Anyway, ten kids having ten kids is immoral, and perhaps we've reached the point in the world where three kids having three kids is immoral, because the world can't contain their needs.


I try to be a realist, although much of a futurist as well.

I just want realistic long term planning between people and government to solve problems permanently for the good of everyone, not just the short term profits of a few selfish individuals, and I recognize that what exists in the U.S. currently is by no means fair nor realistic.

You may say something snide, such as "life's not fair," well, it could certainly be a lot more fair than it is now anyway, it's within the power of this generation to make it so, perhaps more than any previous.


Our very declaration of independence declares that all men are created equal.

Well, perhaps that's not true, but the point is we ought to strive to have equal rights, and modern capitalism does not actually provide that at all.

What we have today is actually much more like Orwell's Animal Farm, where the pigs changed it to say, "All animals are created equal, but some or more equal than others!"

It was claimed that the book was a satire of communism, but I rather think he may well have been mocking the U.S. just as much.

there's little enough difference between corporate leaders today and monarchies of the past. They have too much power and too much of the wealth. The Republicans claim to be for small businesses, and yet most people considered "small businesses" make no more than the median income, if they are lucky to make that, meanwhile the corporate chains are everywhere. The same Wal-Mart and other shopping centers, and the same fast food chains and the same specialty chains all exist from one town to the next, right around the entire nation. As long as people continue to fall into this trap, it will only get worse.

It's not that centralization of knowledge and logistics is a bad thing, it's not conceptually. The problem is the people over the corporations bilk both their employees and their customers through unfair prices and unfair wages, while they make orders of magnitude more income than most.


How is that moral?

You can call me a communist if you like.

I'm not (fundamentally,) but I'd rather be a moral communist than an immoral capitalist.
Many of your points here are valid. I agree with you about child limitation, but it is a human rights issue and a dangerous topic to discuss. My family never owned any slaves and came to this country via Nova Scotia as French Acadians. Slavery was wrong no doubt, but many people came here as indentured servants and in many cases were treated far worse. I do not believe
that government should regulate every part of my life. I vote for a president once every four years, but vote every day with my dollars. If you do not approve of what Zuckerberg makes, don't support his business. The same goes for atheletes and movie stars.
Don't buy their products. We can control our own destinys without losing our freedom. Being part of a herd did not work out well for the buffolo.
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800. LargoFl 12:18 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
Quoting MidMOwx:


Thanks Largo.

My WFO (Pleasant Hill, MO NWS) forecast for tomorrow.

wow looks like winter is here already by you
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801. Tropicsweatherpr 12:19 AM GMT on November 26, 2012    
Guam NWS local Statement regarding Tropical Depression 26W.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...TECHNICAL CORRECTION
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST MON NOV 26 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W HAS FORMED SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN NUKUORO ATOLL IN POHNPEI STATE...AND LUKUNOR AND ITS
SURROUNDING ATOLLS IN CHUUK STATE. THE ISLAND OF NGATIK IS IN THIS
AREA OF CONCERN.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO ATOLL IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR ATOLL IN CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.8 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF NUKUORO
160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
240 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI AND
425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. TD 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NUKUORO AND LUKUNOR AND THE SOUTHERN
MORTLOCK ISLANDS...WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND SURF WILL BE BECOME DANGEROUSLY HIGH ALONG
WINDWARD COASTS. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE VERY STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
DEADLY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT OR SECURED. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL OUTSIDE CHUUK LAGOON SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 30 TO 50
MPH WITHIN 100 MILES OF TD 26W DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST. WAVES GENERATED BY TD 26W MAY
EVENTUALLY CAUSE SURF TO BUILD ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES FOR
ALL THE ISLANDS OF POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
WAVES GENERATED BY TD 26W WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET AND MAY CAUSE
SURF TO BUILD ALONG SOUTHERN SHORES FOR ALL THE ISLANDS OF POHNPEI
AND CHUUK STATES. THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY HIGH
TIDES DUE TO THE FULL MOON AND INUNDATION PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE COMING DAYS AS 26W INTENSIFIES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER LARGE PARTS OF SOUTHERN POHNPEI
AND CHUUK STATES IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 3 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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