Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:35 PM GMT on November 23, 2012 | +36 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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...or the 8-14 day period:
i was talking about dense fog not just fog...
dense fog nea keep it real
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1042 PM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012
PMZ172-173-174-260100-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1042 PM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF POHNPEI HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS CENTERED NEAR 3N158E. THIS IS
ABOUT 215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKUORO...250 MILES NORTHEAST OF
KAPINGAMARANGI...AND ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH OF POHNPEI. HEAVY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE FLARING UP JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI...SOUTHWEST OF
KOSRAE AND SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. THIS CONVECTION COVERS
TA...ETAL...SATAWAN...LUKUNOR...NAMOLUK AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS
IN SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE AND
SAPWUAFIK...NUKUORO...AND KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE AND
ACROSS KOSRAE STATE.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. CHOPPY SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET
COULD BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND CAUSE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS ACROSS
THIS REGION.
RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD STAY ALERT AND
MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS.
$$
AYDLETT
Link
Very mixed signals still regarding its future. The GFS has been very consistent in making it a strong system and taking it well out to sea. The Euro hadn't been showing development for a while, but is now forecasting slow development over the next several days. Because it keeps it weak for much of the run the Euro shows a much more southerly track, so it's something to keep an eye on.
Fine.
Reality doesn't care about man-made grouping terms, boundaries, or definitions.
It's this rigid, categorical thinking, i.e. hurricane categories, which got more than an average number of people killed in Sandy even though it was "only" a category 1.
If you insist on a 30 year period, fine, update your 30 year period every year, and compare it to any other 30 year period, not just decade boundaries.
the Euro had it as a very compact system last week but keeping it well out to sea, so not much has changed then.
NASA predicts total blackout on 23-25 Dec 2012 during alignment of Universe.
US scientists predict Universe change, total blackout of planet for 3 days from Dec 23 2012.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-al ignment.html
It is not the end of the world, it is an alignment of the Universe, where the Sun and the earth will align for the first time. The earth will shift from
the current third dimension to zero dimension, then shift to the forth dimension. During this transition, the entire Universe will face a big
change, and we will see a entire brand new world.
The 3 days blackout is predicted to happen on Dec 23, 24, 25....during this time, staying calm is most important, hug each other, pray pray pray, sleep for 3 nights...and those who survive will face a brand new world....for those not prepared, many will die because of fear.
Be happy, enjoy every moment now. Don't worry, pray to God everday.
There is a lot of talk about what will happen in 2012, but many people don't believe it, and don't want to talk
about it for fear of creating fear and panic. We don't know what will happen, but it is worth
listening to USA 's NASA talk about preparation.
Here is what NASA really says. Link
What? Seriously? I know I predicted an Internet blackout for December 22 onward, but this...well, makes no sense...I'll read what NASA actually says. :P
Update: Aussie, don't be silly. That's not even CNN, it's an iReport article. The NASA link calls the "alignment" hypothesis nonsense.
Once again, as was the case in the Camping Doom Scares, the only valid point in the article is "love/hug each other" and perhaps "prepare yourselves spiritually". But that's only because the Ego inhibits free will, in my opinion.
"Love is not Fear."
And now, back to the weather. After it snowing four inches early Saturday morning, much of the snow melted and now, it's melting again. A weak Alberta clipper (a type of low) will pass through the Great Lakes area, bringing more snow. Now, I have a question: how does the Mississippi fall below 0.0 ft at St. Louis--what baseline is it measured from?
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BOLDWIN (03-20122013)
16:30 PM RET November 25 2012
=======================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Boldwin (994 hPa) located at 15.1S 73.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS
Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant
Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.3S 70.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale
48 HRS: 18.7S 67.0E - Depression Se Comblant
72 HRS: 22.0S 66.6E - Se Dissipant
Additional Information
========================
In the south of the upper level ridge axis, northwesterly vertical wind shear keeps on increasing near the center of Boldwin. Due to a lack of recent microwave imagery, low level circulation center is difficult to locate precisely but the small vortex is still masked by upper level clouds.
The convective activity mainly exists in the southeastern quadrant but remains well sustained by a rather good poleward upper level divergence.
Wind shear is expected to keeps on increasing as the system will undergo the influence of an approaching upper level trough. System is therefore expected to keeps on weakening within the next 36 hours as it tracks west southwestwards under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures.
Beyond system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south, and turn southwards and then south southeastward and merge with this trough on Wednesday or Thursday.
I think one is viewer written from what they think NASA says. Then when you read what NASA actually reads it's hard to understand how someone could mis-intemperate what NASA said.
I'm not quite sure what you're trying to prove here. I'm pretty sure Nea understands the difference between climate and weather. The projected outlook calls for warmer than average and drier than average conditions across much of the continental US for the next couple of weeks. How you get "climate" out of that I'm not really sure, other than the source being named Climate Prediction Center.
This is the latest from the Euro. A small but strong Typhoon threatening Mindanao.
Try this link Dragod66..it covers alot of territory..the legend on the left of this link can be helpful.. :)
On the heels of #Sandy and Winter Storm #Athena, this week's Northeast #snow will be on the minor side. Link
.
.
.
Does that mean they are not going to name it?
Further
It should be noted that the annual MAXIMUM will fall below the highest annual minimum (16,900km^3) in the modern record sometime in the next 5 to 7 years.
This would represent a complete bifurcation in the annual Arctic ice volume cycle, which is again stated as, "the annual maximum volume will be permanently lower than the annual minimum volume was at the beginning of the satellite record."
Annual area minimum should hit zero in 5 years if the rate is linear, or 4 years if the rate is exponential, agreeing closely with the projected volume melt rate.
The area maximum curve is less well behaved than the area minimum, but as average thickness continues to decrease this trend should change so that area maximum becomes more well behaved, in terms of tracking the data, not in terms of what's good for the planet.
I determined that the rate of decrease (slope of the tangent) in the area maximum lags behind the rate of decrease in the area minimum by about 9 or 10 years. However, this could be somewhat coincidental. It seems likely that as thickness continues decreasing this time delay will shrink or disappear.
Only a couple percent of China's population owns automobiles. Just wait till they equal the west.
Here's the real problem.
Solving pollution problems, especially a fundamental chemistry problem like CO2, requires top to bottom change in our energy infrastructure and technology. However, capitalistic societies are driven by short term and medium term profits for individuals or corporations, rather than what makes sense for entire civilizations over entire life times.
Currently, almost nothing in government is planned beyond the next election cycle, and then when the next election happens, they spend the first half of their term undoing any long-term policies made by the previous administration. As a nation, we have "multiple personality disorder" whereby the two personalities have totally opposite beliefs which spend the majority of their time doing little more than undermining the other personality.
91W
Link
Up to 1.5
TPPN10 PGTW 251535
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (SE OF CHUUK)
B. 25/1430Z
C. 3.3N
D. 157.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .30 WRAP ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
Webcam near my location..
My WU weather at a glance..
Current Jet Stream
To begin with (and I am not sure where to begin here...) there is no consensus about how many dimensions the universe currently have. However, there is one thing for sure... The universe has at least 4 dimensions (Minkowsky space = 3 spatial + 1 temporal dimension). For this reason, the view of the universe as an expanding balloon, although nice,it's not realistic because there is no center of the universe. Since there is no center, there are no "alignments" in the sense that is being described in this ludicrous description of I don't really know what.
"Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned." Gautama Buddha
_________________________
UPDATED... Big Lake effect snowstorm
...change... the bottom white shaded area should say near half a foot...not over a foot...
click for larger image
Thanks Max.. :)
I am sorry...I always fall into trolls tricks.
That article is a hoax, and it only took me about half-way through the first paragraph to recognize that whoever wrote it has absolutely no scientific education or understanding beyond about the 4th grade level.
In fact, if you actually go to the NASA article they claim to be citing as a reference, you find it's opening paragraph says the exact opposite:
The actual NASA article
It's almost as if people intentionally set out to make themselves as ignorant as possible about every possible topic.
WTPN21 PGTW 251700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.0N 158.2E TO 4.5N 155.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 251630Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.1N 157.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.6N
158.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.1N 157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH
OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 251424Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. A 251058Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, INDICATIVE OF THE
RECENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS
PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND IS NOW WEAK (10 TO 15
KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261700Z.//
NNNN
SE LA weather report -
LOL, well outta the fog and into the frost! And actually I saw both last night while enjoying a bonfire under moonlit skies... ;)
Coldest morning yet across the Gulf South with lows uniformly in 20's / 30's, although certainly not record-setting. Checking lows around my part of SE LA, locally the Houma Metro (record low: 22F, 1950) saw USDA @ 32.4F, KHUM @ 34.7F, my Bayou Cane home @ 35.1F, while my truly rural / always colder Bayou Blue location had a freeze with 30F reading... As I've documented numerous times - When I left there last night before 10 PM, already was 37F, got home 6 miles back to the urbanized, commercialized mass of concrete that formerly rural Bayou Cane has been transformed into to find warmer 44F reading. By midnight the respective readings were 34F and 39F.
Anyway, rebounding nicely into the 60's now after observing my 3rd frost of season - full coverage, surfaces coated in icy white at sunrise, beautiful Winter morning. But quick changes on the way, including good chance rain next 2 days, minor cool-off on Wed, with overall trend here milder to likely end the month / start December on a warmer note. However, our local temp departure for November 2012 is certain to average below normal - data from Louisiana Office State Climatology indicates Houma mean temperature was 7F degrees below average for week 1, 5F degrees below average week 2, 9F degrees below average for week 3... Been a cool Fall for us, but I'm a little skeptical of that trend continuing thru Winter.
Blog topic PS: My local Thanksgiving 2012 weather observation was like much of the N Gulf region and Florida - seasonable and pleasant, calm, dry, tranquil conditions neither excessively warm or cold, very average... Cool morn low temps with light fog, mild aftn high temps, mostly sunny skies with fair wx cumulus / increasing cirrus and shallow alto cumulus deck from west late in day, light / variable to calm winds.
Calendar date November 22 climate normals Houma LA 164407 -
('81-2010 period): 50.7-71.2F = MT: 60.95F
LOSC temp data Thanksgiving Thu Nov 22 2012, Houma: 41-76F
Low temp 41F was 9.7F below average
High temp 76F was 4.8F above average
Daily Mean Temp 58.5F was 2.45F below average
LOL Gro,
Well the aviation term is indeed, "severe clear" for such... ;)
Truly Dangerous wx, you could hurt your eyes looking up, could crash from sunshine in your eyes while driving, or you could get skin cancer....
Thanks for the find Aussie.
I've seen JFV posts with more articulation and sense than this iReport CNN article. What were they thinking?
Be happy, enjoy every moment now. Don't worry, pray to God everday.
While trying to ignore the fact that they misspelled 'everyday', just reading the post you can tell this is incredibly poor scientific understanding and full of logical fallacies, and it's a hoax. There's nothing like that, that has been announced to the media by NASA. Because you know, smart people work there.
I'm just glad I don't have to go through another apocalypse. It sort of messes up the day.
Are you guys making fun of the whole "Fog = Severe weather" thing?
Personally, I wouldn't consider Fog as "severe weather" because the only damage associated with it is actually directly induced by human stupidity.
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