A tranquil and record-warm Thanksgiving for much of the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:35 PM GMT on November 23, 2012

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Celebrations of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in 2012 were aided by some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week. Unusually warm and precipitation-free conditions prevailed over almost the entire nation on Wednesday and Thursday, with many locations in the Midwest reporting their warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. At least three cities set records for their warmest temperature ever recorded so late in the year: Valentine, Nebraska (76° on Wednesday); Rochester, Minnesota (70° on Wednesday); and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan (65° on Thursday.) While the quiet weather was a boon for travelers, the lack of rain in the Midwest allowed the nation's worst drought since 1954 to expand; the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought expanded by 1% to 60% this week. This reversed a seven-week trend of slowly decreasing drought that began on September 25 and extended until November 13, when the area covered by drought declined from 65% to 59%. The latest ten-day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models show much below average chances of precipitation across more 90% of the U.S., including the drought regions. These dry conditions will allow the drought to expand over the next two weeks, and potentially cover 65% of the contiguous U.S. again by mid-December. The next chance for significant rains in excess of one inch in the Midwest will not occur until December 2, at the earliest. The lack of rain will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by December 10, when the river may fall below the level of -5 feet at St. Louis needed to allow barges to not scrape bottom.


Figure 1. This week's U.S. Drought Monitor shows 60% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.


Figure 2. Predicted 8-day precipitation amounts from the 06Z (1 am EST) November 23, 2012 run of the GFS model. For the 8-day period ending on Saturday, December 1, only the Northwest Coast, Central Gulf Coast, and portions of the Tennessee Valley are predicted to receive rains in excess of one inch. Image credit: NOAA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models is forecasting tropical cyclone development between now and the Friday, November 30 official end of hurricane season. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of one more named storm forming in December in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, but late-season storms forming in that location rarely affect land.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

I Am Thankful (pasocorto)
I Am Thankful
HappyThanksgiving! (suzi46)
to all our wonderful WU Community..a frigid and frosty daybreak at our neighbor's pond..heading up to a sunny and beautiful 50 degree afternoon..:)
HappyThanksgiving!
there's always light.. (mieke)
there's always light..
()

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369. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Although examples seem to have been provided for other countries and their respect meteorological agencies, here in the US, fog is not really treated as a severe weather event by the National Weather Service. Severe weather typically uses the watch/warning scale of products. Severe weather typically requires immediate action by all the warned persons to significantly reduce the chance of property damage, injury, or death. Nuisance weather typically is addressed with advisories, not warnings. Nuisance weather may increase the chance of property damage, injury, or death, but typically not to the same degree and many times only to people in certain situations.

Fog may be a nuisance to most, but is only dangerous in some situations. The US National Weather Service does not issue "fog watches" or "fog warnings" but instead "dense fog advisories," and as such, it is officially considered a nuisance weather phenomena and not a short fuse severe weather phenomena.



so we can only use what the USA says???? if so please only use USA stats with climate change....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2333
Eye is becoming more apparent again.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Fog is indeed a danger to drivers; I've not seen anyone claim otherwise. But so are such other weather-related hazards as light rain, dew, frost, and blinding morning sun. Clearly, then, danger to drivers alone is not enough to warrant labeling any particular meteorological phenomenon "severe weather", despite what some may think.

Although examples seem to have been provided for other countries and their respective meteorological agencies, here in the US, fog is not really treated as a severe weather event by the National Weather Service. Severe weather typically uses the watch/warning scale of products. Severe weather typically requires immediate action by all the warned persons to significantly reduce the chance of property damage, injury, or death. Nuisance weather typically is addressed with advisories, not warnings. Nuisance weather may increase the chance of property damage, injury, or death, but typically not to the same degree and many times only to people in certain situations.

Fog may be a nuisance to most, but is only dangerous in some situations. The US National Weather Service does not issue "fog watches" or "fog warnings" but instead "dense fog advisories," and as such, it is officially considered a nuisance weather phenomena and not a short fuse severe weather phenomena.
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366. Skyepony (Mod)
South Indian Ocean has BOLDWIN. Great storm name or what? 97S is dead. 90W Looking gamely.

BOLDWIN~ Small & strong for it's pressure.
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365. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
Fog is indeed a danger to drivers; I've not seen anyone claim otherwise. But so are such other weather-related hazards as light rain, dew, frost, and blinding morning sun. Clearly, then, danger to drivers alone is not enough to warrant labeling any particular meteorological phenomenon "severe weather", despite what some may think.

On a related note--and further bolstering Dr. Masters' claim that U.S. weather has been this week been "tranquil and record-warm"--record high temperatures across the United States over the last six days have outnumbered record low temperatures by a very un-Novemberlike 776 to 28. Very nice...



UK Weather: Met Office issues severe weather warning as thick fog ... Oct 22, 2012 ... Heavy fog has halted planes across England and Europe, with Heathrow Airport
cancelling more than 120 flights today as the Met Office issues ...
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2221343/UK-Weath er-Met-Office-issues-severe-weather-warning-fog-le ads-120-cancelled-flights.html




Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2333
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Yep, still near record lows for this time of year.

Full
A nice reminder that "eyeball statistics" are rarely that good. Look at the actual data, analyze the typical ranges and percentiles, then put the data in context. It means orders of magnitude more in science than just eyeballing two plots.

Maybe if we're lucky we'll briefly brush (even exceed) average again this winter before it quickly jumps back into 2 standard deviation low territory.
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Quoting drs2008:
if is especially dark,due to lack of moonlight,maybe it should have a name,like our winter storms
Fog Fifi, Fog Felicia, Fog Fawn, Sounds ok to me
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The "single location" reference is way back in the comment queue; you'd have to read back to the beginning to understand the context. The bottom line, however, is this: some people will argue with certain other people about virtually anything.

Anyway, while some here may wish to apply the term "severe weather" to fog events, I've found no meteorological agency that does so. The fact is, if fog can be classified as severe weather merely because it can lead to traffic accidents, then light rains are severe weather, too. And frost. And dew. And bright clear mornings that cause the low sun to cause temporary driver blindness...Skin cancer is dangerous. The sun causes skin cancer. Therefore, sunny days are severe weather.

Got it. Thanks! ;-)

if is especially dark,due to lack of moonlight,maybe it should have a name,like our winter storms
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Quoting originalLT:
Where are posts #351 and 352?
Not sure, but maybe one was mine..It's a teacher's pet thing I believe.
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Current Aviation Data..



Lots of air travel again today..
flightradar24


Current Jet Stream..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
Fog is indeed a danger to drivers; I've not seen anyone claim otherwise. But so are such other weather-related hazards as light rain, dew, frost, and blinding morning sun. Clearly, then, danger to drivers alone is not enough to warrant labeling any particular meteorological phenomenon "severe weather", despite what some may think.

On a related note--and further bolstering Dr. Masters' claim that U.S. weather has been this week been "tranquil and record-warm"--record high temperatures across the United States over the last six days have outnumbered record low temperatures by a very un-Novemberlike 776 to 28. Very nice...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13469
Where are posts #351 and 352?
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Quoting luvtogolf:


Here is Florida dense fog can be way more of a dangerous situation than any one severe summer thunderstorm that has 55mph winds and pea size hail. Just ask the families of those who lost loved ones from car pile ups on the interstates or the back roads when you can't see 5 feet in front of you. To some idiots, that is not a dangerous situation and is compared to sunshine or light rain.


We get some dense fog here about 4-5 days a year..and as can be predicted,someone causes a death by not slowing their car speeds down for the dangerous conditions..I don't know whether it (fog) should be considered severe weather or dangerous weather,but to those families that have lost loved one's due to this condition,just as you said,they would probably consider fog a severe condition..Just My 2 cents worth on the subject..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
Quoting yoboi:





UK Weather: Met Office issues severe weather warning as thick fog ... Oct 22, 2012 ... Heavy fog has halted planes across England and Europe, with Heathrow Airport
cancelling more than 120 flights today as the Met Office issues ...
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2221343/UK-Weath er-Met-Office-issues-severe-weather-warning-fog-le ads-120-cancelled-flights.html


Here is Florida dense fog can be way more of a dangerous situation than any one severe summer thunderstorm that has 55mph winds and pea size hail. Just ask the families of those who lost loved ones from car pile ups on the interstates or the back roads when you can't see 5 feet in front of you. To some idiots, that is not a dangerous situation and is compared to sunshine or light rain.
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Good Mornin' All,

Webcam from my area..



My WU weather..freeze warning for tonight..

1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida




Looking good for some important college football today..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
353. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm very thankful this morning that, despite our clear skies and light winds overnight, the low dewpoint prevented an outbreak of severe fog. I was prepared for that outbreak; I stashed away a week's worth of food (well, it was Thanksgiving leftovers), and I made sure my flashlight had fresh batteries so I could see my way from the parking lot into the mall. I know it's easy to be complacent where fog is concerned, as many people think these low-hanging clouds are simply products of very stable weather. But that's because they haven't yet been made aware of just how severe fog outbreaks can be. Fog is the quiet, dampening menace best summed up by one of America's great poets:

Fog

The fog comes
on little cat feet.

It sits looking
over harbor and city
on silent haunches
and then moves on.


--Carl Sandburg

Now, if that isn't the perfect description of severe weather, I don't know what is... ;-)





UK Weather: Met Office issues severe weather warning as thick fog ... Oct 22, 2012 ... Heavy fog has halted planes across England and Europe, with Heathrow Airport
cancelling more than 120 flights today as the Met Office issues ...
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2221343/UK-Weath er-Met-Office-issues-severe-weather-warning-fog-le ads-120-cancelled-flights.html
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2333
Quoting Dakster:
Nice marbles Aussie... Those would leave a mark coming down.

Currently Lightning in WA


It's been going since 1pm WST. now 11:13WST
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting Dakster:
Nice marbles Aussie... Those would leave a mark coming down.
Put your eye out kid
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Nice marbles Aussie... Those would leave a mark coming down.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Boldwin gets named by Mauritius Meteorological Services
About time should have been name since yesterday.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4061
Quoting Wunderwood:
Here in South Florida, a big chunk of Highway A1A has been swallowed by the ocean in Ft. Lauderdale. Beach flooding is also occurring along Miami Beach.
The local news was showing the erosion along A1A in Delray Beach this morning
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Here in South Florida, a big chunk of Highway A1A has been swallowed by the ocean in Ft. Lauderdale. Beach flooding is also occurring along Miami Beach.
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344. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm very thankful this morning that, despite our clear skies and light winds overnight, the low dewpoint prevented an outbreak of severe fog. I was prepared for that outbreak; I stashed away a week's worth of food (well, it was Thanksgiving leftovers), and I made sure my flashlight had fresh batteries so I could see my way from the parking lot into the mall. I know it's easy to be complacent where fog is concerned, as many people think these low-hanging clouds are simply products of very stable weather. But that's because they haven't yet been made aware of just how severe fog outbreaks can be. Fog is the quiet, dampening menace best summed up by one of America's great poets:

Fog

The fog comes
on little cat feet.

It sits looking
over harbor and city
on silent haunches
and then moves on.


--Carl Sandburg

Now, if that isn't the perfect description of severe weather, I don't know what is... ;-)



old carl wrote the same poem about global warming so what's the point????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2333
343. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Boldwin (988 hPa) located at 14.0S 75.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 35 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 45 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 65 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 95 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.8S 73.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.1S 70.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 16.6S 67.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
BOLWIN has shown a ragged eye pattern during most of the day on visible imagery. The eye was more intermittent on enhanced infrared imagery (Best definition at midday).

Available Dvorak estimates at 1130z give an initial intensity at 50 knots (SAB and PGTW at 3.5). However, a 3hr mean of manual T-num is near 4.0. Moreover, a 1039 AM UTC SSMI pass depicts a strong mid level 20 NM diameter eye pattern associated with a contracting eye. Finally, initial intensity estimate is raised at 55 knots.

The system is compact and environmental pressure are around 1010 hPa. Consequently, mean sea level pressure is higher than usual for a system of that strength.

Environmental conditions are good aloft the circulation. The wind shear is weak under the upper level ridge axis (less than 10 knots according to 0900 am UTC CIMSS analysis). However a cirrus arc is detected since 1000 am UTC over the north northeastern outer circulation, suggesting that a some shear may still exist. Upper level divergence is rather good mainly poleward. Sea surface temperatures (in the 27-28C range) and oceanic heat contain are also favorable for some further development.This rather favorable environmental conditions are expected to continue until Sunday afternoon.

Available numerical weather prediction guidance struggle to properly handle the current intensification of this small system. The current intensity forecast is on the path of the previous one. Confidence in this intensity forecast remains lower than usual.

Late Sunday, northerly then northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen and system is therefore expected to progressively weaken. Tuesday and Wednesday, the system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south. An interaction with the upper level trough that could maintain intensity seems possible according to numerical weather prediction fields. This scenario is highly uncertain it is worth noting that most of the ECMWF ensemble members dissipate the system as soon as Tuesday.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44859
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm very thankful this morning that, despite our clear skies and light winds overnight, the low dewpoint prevented an outbreak of severe fog. I was prepared for that outbreak; I stashed away a week's worth of food (well, it was Thanksgiving leftovers), and I made sure my flashlight had fresh batteries so I could see my way from the parking lot into the mall. I know it's easy to be complacent where fog is concerned, as many people think these low-hanging clouds are simply products of very stable weather. But that's because they haven't yet been made aware of just how severe fog outbreaks can be. Fog is the quiet, dampening killer. I think one of America's great poets summed it up best:

Fog

The fog comes
on little cat feet.

It sits looking
over harbor and city
on silent haunches
and then moves on.


--Carl Sandburg

Now, if that isn't the perfect description of severe weather, I don't know what is... ;-)
I went to bed last night very early... I checked in and the main topic was "FOG"..I see it still is over 12 hours later. So glad for the grown-up discussions. NOT
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341. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:


every time i hear the denier crowd complaining about how nea is a big meanie with his 'backhanded insults' or whatever, i remember comments like this. you guys are no better at all.

it just goes to show that it isn't really about how the guy talks, it's merely that he consistently presents the case that climate change is real and human-caused, and you're just trying to rationalize telling him to shut up about it.




is it foggy there this morn????
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2333
I'm very thankful this morning that, despite our clear skies and light winds overnight, the low dewpoint prevented an outbreak of severe fog. I was prepared for that outbreak; I stashed away a week's worth of food (well, it was Thanksgiving leftovers), and I made sure my flashlight had fresh batteries so I could see my way from the parking lot into the mall. I know it's easy to be complacent where fog is concerned, as many people think these low-hanging clouds are simply products of very stable weather. But that's because they haven't yet been made aware of just how severe fog outbreaks can be. Fog is the quiet, dampening menace best summed up by one of America's great poets:

Fog

The fog comes
on little cat feet.

It sits looking
over harbor and city
on silent haunches
and then moves on.


--Carl Sandburg

Now, if that isn't the perfect description of severe weather, I don't know what is... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13469
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It 44 now!!:) in WPB
SFL.Same cool early morning weather as yesterday... Then by 8:30 off comes the jackets and sweaters........Gorgeous day.
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Link

Don't know if Someone already posted this but,
Christie estimates Sandy damages at $29.4 billion
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:





He's a legend in his own mind.


every time i hear the denier crowd complaining about how nea is a big meanie with his 'backhanded insults' or whatever, i remember comments like this. you guys are no better at all.

it just goes to show that it isn't really about how the guy talks, it's merely that he consistently presents the case that climate change is real and human-caused, and you're just trying to rationalize telling him to shut up about it.

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Good morning/evening all. I love sleeping in until seven. Warmed up to 38 degrees. Hope all survived Black Friday yesterday. I shopped from my couch online. So much nicer.
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Quoting yoboi:



neapolitan your my hero....





He's a legend in his own mind.
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Storm clouds over Kinross, Perth W.A




This was a skate park now a lake after a storm.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
332. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:


Will TWC name it? or since it's occurring on a weekend they won't.


LOL

Anyways
Looks like some areas are getting some winter storms

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Quoting yoboi:



neapolitan your my hero....

LOL

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
330. yoboi
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, it's all about visibility? Then I guess fog would qualify as severe weather, despite what all those stupid meteorologists think. Of course, by that same logic, so would night. Jeez. I wonder when the NWS will begin issuing severe darkness warnings... ;-)Do you also, then, consider as "patently false" Dr. Masters' contention that the U.S. has this week seen "some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week", or that this week's "quiet weather was a boon for travelers"?

Yeah, that's what I thought... ;-)



neapolitan your my hero....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2333
Good morning. Boldwin is looking real good in the SW Indian:



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7637
It 44 now!!:) in WPB
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Good Morning folks!...7-day for the Tampa Bay area.......
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.
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319. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Boldwin gets named by Mauritius Meteorological Services
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44859

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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