A tranquil and record-warm Thanksgiving for much of the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:35 PM GMT on November 23, 2012

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Celebrations of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in 2012 were aided by some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week. Unusually warm and precipitation-free conditions prevailed over almost the entire nation on Wednesday and Thursday, with many locations in the Midwest reporting their warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. At least three cities set records for their warmest temperature ever recorded so late in the year: Valentine, Nebraska (76° on Wednesday); Rochester, Minnesota (70° on Wednesday); and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan (65° on Thursday.) While the quiet weather was a boon for travelers, the lack of rain in the Midwest allowed the nation's worst drought since 1954 to expand; the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought expanded by 1% to 60% this week. This reversed a seven-week trend of slowly decreasing drought that began on September 25 and extended until November 13, when the area covered by drought declined from 65% to 59%. The latest ten-day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models show much below average chances of precipitation across more 90% of the U.S., including the drought regions. These dry conditions will allow the drought to expand over the next two weeks, and potentially cover 65% of the contiguous U.S. again by mid-December. The next chance for significant rains in excess of one inch in the Midwest will not occur until December 2, at the earliest. The lack of rain will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by December 10, when the river may fall below the level of -5 feet at St. Louis needed to allow barges to not scrape bottom.


Figure 1. This week's U.S. Drought Monitor shows 60% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.


Figure 2. Predicted 8-day precipitation amounts from the 06Z (1 am EST) November 23, 2012 run of the GFS model. For the 8-day period ending on Saturday, December 1, only the Northwest Coast, Central Gulf Coast, and portions of the Tennessee Valley are predicted to receive rains in excess of one inch. Image credit: NOAA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models is forecasting tropical cyclone development between now and the Friday, November 30 official end of hurricane season. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of one more named storm forming in December in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, but late-season storms forming in that location rarely affect land.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

I Am Thankful (pasocorto)
I Am Thankful
HappyThanksgiving! (suzi46)
to all our wonderful WU Community..a frigid and frosty daybreak at our neighbor's pond..heading up to a sunny and beautiful 50 degree afternoon..:)
HappyThanksgiving!
there's always light.. (mieke)
there's always light..
()

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468. Skyepony (Mod)
Weakening flag on for BOLDWIN. Wasn't forecast to get much stronger. Pressure is up from 984mb to 986mb.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37169
I made a mess.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31328
466. etxwx
After Storm, Dry Floors Prove Value of Exceeding City Code
By MIREYA NAVARRO
NYT - November 23, 2012

Excerpt: In the countdown to Hurricane Sandy last month, construction workers on a teeming pier in Sunset Park, Brooklyn, rushed to strap down materials and move forklifts and excavators into half-built structures to shield them from the tempest to come. But the real storm preparations had been accomplished six years earlier, when Sims Metal Management approved a design for a state-of-the-art city recycling plant that is rising at the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal.

Reviewing projections for local sea-level rise, the company and its architects decided to elevate portions of the site to heights exceeding city requirements by four feet. Using recycled glass and crushed rock discarded from projects like the Second Avenue subway line, they raised the foundation for the plant’s four buildings and a dock. The fill added $550,000 to the plant’s costs of around $100 million, said Thomas Outerbridge, Sims Metal’s general manager. But it proved more than worth it. When a 12-foot storm surge swept through nearby streets and parking lots on Oct. 29, the plant’s dock and partly completed buildings did not flood.

“It paid for itself long before we expected it,” Mr. Outerbridge said. “It was built with the idea that, over the next 40 years, this would prove a prudent thing — and the proof came during construction.”

For years, experts have warned that New York City has failed to keep pace with the threats posed by sea-level rise along the 520-mile coastline of the city’s five boroughs. Builders that have taken steps on their own, like Sims Metal, have been relatively few. But as city officials and real estate developers ponder a landscape of devastation from the South Street Seaport in Lower Manhattan to the Rockaways in Queens to Midland Beach on Staten Island, new flood protections for all building types suddenly seem inevitable, whether voluntary or mandated by new laws.

“Now there’s a different calculus,” the City Council speaker, Christine C. Quinn, said. “You pay now or you pay more later.”

Last week, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and Ms. Quinn convened a new “building resiliency” task force to study potential changes in the building code and to make recommendations by the summer. Ms. Quinn said she anticipated that the city would require retrofits to reinforce existing structures and more floodproofing for new projects.


Article continues here.
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465. VR46L
Quoting Skyepony:
Britain braced for flooding chaos

UK looks like it's still getting slammed.



I understand the south west ..Cornwall and the other southwest counties have been taking a beating

Risk of severe flooding as more heavy rain hits UK BBC News

and current Radar
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Quoting Skyepony:
Britain braced for flooding chaos

UK looks like it's still getting slammed.



The UK is getting winds up to 80 MPH and continued flooding.
Large areas are under water with more rain to come. Many rivers have burst their banks and measures are been taken to distribute sand bags and warnings are in place to move possessions upstairs and evacuate in some areas.
Heres some photos I found on the BBC site, a drop in the ocean so to say:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/pictures/20445266

I read earlier that the closure of the road "A1," in the north of England for three days due to flooding cost about £250 million or about $400 million, and that's just one road!
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I think there are a few apocalypse dates every year, just most aren't as well popularized as Dec 21 2012.
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462. beell
Quoting TomballTXPride:

That's called weather.


This is called:
"The struggle to balance the heat in a changing climate"

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Quoting allancalderini:
think 2060 the year Newton predict apocalypse will happen but I am not sure may be one closer.

Quoting RTSplayer:
Well, I had picked 2065 at first thought, since it's the number Isaac Newton picked as being "no earlier than". ...


Just finished an interesting foray into Newton's occult studies. Knew that Newton was heavily into stuff like alchemy, but didn't know he also worked on prophetic interpretation of the Bible. A very enjoyable diversion for a slow afternoon, so thanks for the info!
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

That's called weather.
Well, the map was, after all, put out by the "Climate Prediction Center", since it's dealing with longer-term events (temperature anomalies) over a large region (the United States). But you're on the right track!
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...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LEVY COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.A COLDER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO
A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS LEVY COUNTY DURING
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES SOME
PATCHY FROST MAY FORM IN WIND PROTECTED AREAS.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Looking ahead, when is the next apocalypse scheduled after 12/21/12?



12/22/12
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454. etxwx
Seoul set to launch space rocket on Nov. 29

SEOUL, Nov. 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea plans to launch the Korea Space Launch Vehicle-1 (KSLV-1) next week in its third attempt to send a rocket into space from its own soil, a government committee said Thursday.

"Nov. 29 has been set as the candidate launch date," the Naro Launch Preparation Committee said in a released statement. "The possible time of the launch will be between 4 and 6:55 p.m. with the actual time to be decided on the launch date."

It said, however, that both the date and time were still tentative as bad weather conditions and many other issues could further delay the planned launch.

Seoul originally sought to launch the KSLV-1, also known as Naro-1, on Oct. 26 but a broken rubber seal in a connector or adapter between the rocket and its launch pad forced it to reschedule its third attempt to put a rocket into space.

The first two attempts, in August 2009 and June 2010, both ended in failure.

"Regarding the replacement of a defective part in the adapter that caused problems in the Oct. 26 preparations for a launch, thorough investigations have been under way since Nov. 18 when the replacement part arrived here and the tests have yet to point to any additional problems," the committee said.

The ongoing Naro space program began in 2002 but a lack of relevant technology forced the country to seek help from Russia, which has a success rate of 93.6 percent in more than 3,100 space rocket launches between 1950 and 2011.

The first-stage rocket of the two-stage Naro-1 is built by Russia's Khrunichev State Research and Production Space Center with the second-stage of the rocket built by a consortium of more than 150 South Korean companies and research centers, led by the Korea Aerospace Research Institute.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Looking ahead, when is the next apocalypse scheduled after 12/21/12?



Patience, Sailor. We ain't done with this one yet.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Looking ahead, when is the next apocalypse scheduled after 12/21/12?



Well, I had picked 2065 at first thought, since it's the number Isaac Newton picked as being "no earlier than".

But on second thought, I realized just now, "That's unreasonable. No way the whack-jobs would wait that long for the next apocalypse scare!"


So, I probably shouldn't hazard a guess. Maybe the hoaxers and other lunatics will get bored and go back to the usual stuff, like Nostradamus.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Looking ahead, when is the next apocalypse scheduled after 12/21/12?

think 2060 the year Newton predict apocalypse will happen but I am not sure may be one closer.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3958
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Colorado State University will no longer issue a prediction for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes when they release their outlook in December. Instead, they will discuss the factors that may or may not influence the season only (just a heads up).

CSU will release it around December 8.


ohh...didn't know that
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Beautiful fall day in GA especially since #3 UGA just beat up on GT 42-10....

Low tonight in the mid 20s...gonna be a cold one.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Colorado State University will no longer issue a prediction for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes when they release their outlook in December. Instead, they will discuss the factors that may or may not influence the season only (just a heads up).

CSU will release it around December 8.


I think they got embarrassed this year.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25079
From the Guam NWS regarding 90W:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
551 AM CHST SUN NOV 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OVER THE MARIANAS
WATERS. DISTURBANCE 90W IS STILL PARKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
NEAR 2N160E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS AT LEAST THE
NEXT 3-4 DAYS LOOK VERY MUCH LIKE DRY SEASON WITH MODERATE TRADES
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS 90W AND THE UNREALISTIC TREATMENT
OF IT BY THE GFS MODEL. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z RUN JUST IN...90W IS
ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT SURFACE WINDS! THE GFS MAKES IT
A TYPHOON NEAR POHNPEI BY MONDAY EVENING AND BRINGS IT INTO THE
MARIANAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS QUITE
DIFFERENT...KEEPING 90W SOUTH OF GUAM WITH MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TAKING 90W WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF GUAM. BUT EVEN
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INTENSIFY 90W TOO FAST. INDEED...THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBER THAT BRINGS 90W INTO THE MARIANAS MOST AGGRESSIVELY
IS NONE OTHER THAN THE OPERATIONAL VERSION OF THE MODEL RUN! NOW IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP QUICKLY UNDER THE
RIGHT CONDITIONS...BUT VERY NEAR THE EQUATOR WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS NOT THE IDEAL SITUATION FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. FOR ALL
THESE REASONS...I CONSIDER THE GFS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS FAR AS 90W IS
CONCERNED...AND VERY UNLIKELY TO VERIFY.

THE UKMET...ECMWF AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL DEVELOP 90W FAR MORE SLOWLY
AND KEEP IT SOUTH OF 10N ALL THE WAY PAST 140E...MAKING IT A
POSSIBLE STORM THREAT TO SUCH PLACES AS CHUUK...YAP AND PALAU BUT
NOT TO THE MARIANAS. IN VIEW OF THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STATE OF
90W AND THE FACT THAT SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS AT CHUUK OR POHNPEI...SLOW DEVELOPMENT SEEMS THE MOST
THAT CAN BE EXPECTED.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13929
408 Sfloridacat5: Anyone read this story? Two new anchors quit due to bias reporting.. Here's a paragraph from the news article with interesting references to global warming (or lack there of):
Palmer sparked sparked a political tiff in 2006, when he was the stations' general manager, for telling his staff that they would no longer report stories on global warming. When "Bar Harbor is underwater, then we can do global warming stories," he wrote in an email obtained by The New York Times. "Until then, no more."

40.6% of the area within BarHarbor's borders is already underwater.
If he is referring to drowning the land within town boundaries, Cadillac Mountain rises to an elevation of 466metres(1527feet).
Considering that a total meltdown of all Arctic and Antarctic ice would cause a maximum*plausible sea-level rise of ~75metres...

* Including heat expansion of the ocean and redistribution of some seawater from the SouthernHemisphere to the NorthernHemisphere because of the change in Earth's gravitational equipotentional.

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The CPC's new 6-10 day temperature probability outlook is pretty bullish on continued warmth across almsot all of the Lower 48, while at the same time deepening the cold expected across southern Alaska.

CPC

(The outlooks released on the weekends by the CPC are automated and presented without human review, but they're usually pretty close nonetheless.)
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Looking ahead, when is the next apocalypse scheduled after 12/21/12?

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


you know when the forecast for next year comes out from the CSU this December?

Colorado State University will no longer issue a prediction for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes when they release their outlook in December. Instead, they will discuss the factors that may or may not influence the season only (just a heads up).

CSU will release it around December 8.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31328
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Based on precedence we should get a Category 5 hurricane next season.



you know when the forecast for next year comes out from the CSU this December?
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Based on precedence we should get a Category 5 hurricane next season.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31328
Quoting Dakster:
What about Grolar's? When a Polar Bear and a grizzly have offspring?



Good segway into the next blog topic - the mating tendencies of bears.
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What about Grolar's? When a Polar Bear and a grizzly have offspring?

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Quoting aspectre:
PensacolaDoug:
364 ScottLincoln: Yep, still near record lows for this time of year.


Given his predilection, I suspect PensacolaDoug was comparing the difference in continental snow cover.



I posted an image is all.

Don't read more into it than there is.
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Quoting hydrus:
I thought this was neat. Here is a simulation of how black holes and other objects affect what we see in space. It is called Gravitational Lensing..


That is an interesting image. Thanks hydrus.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25079
Little shake, rattle and roll earthquake in S. Jersey last evening. Only a 2.1. Two small ones in one month now! Hmmmmm
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Your link does not go to the article/video.

here's the link
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Late to the discussion (as usual). Catching up by reading back. Feeling pedantic. Apologies in advance.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
BTW.Grizzly's and Kodiak's are the same bear...It happens to be where they grew up........... I spent 2 years in Alaska, way back.


Wikipedia says otherwise. Although Wikipedia isn't always 100% accurate, I wouldn't bet against them in this case.

The grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis), also known as the silvertip bear, the grizzly, or the North American brown bear, is a subspecies of brown bear (Ursus arctos) that generally lives in the uplands of western North America. This subspecies is thought to descend from Ussuri brown bears which crossed to Alaska from eastern Russia 100,000 years ago, though they did not move south until 13,000 years ago.


The Kodiak bear (Ursus arctos middendorffi), also known as the Kodiak brown bear or the Alaskan grizzly bear or American brown bear, occupies the islands of the Kodiak Archipelago in South-Western Alaska. Its name in the Alutiiq language is Taquka-aq. It is the largest subspecies of brown bear.

Taxonomist C.H. Merriam was the first [1896] to recognize Kodiak bears as unique and he named the species "Ursus middendorffi" in honor of the celebrated Baltic naturalist Dr. A. Th. von Middendorff. Subsequent taxonomic revisions merged most North American brown bears into a single subspecies (Ursus arctos horribilis), but Kodiak bears are still considered to be a unique subspecies (Ursus arctos middendorffi). Recent investigations of genetic samples from bears on Kodiak have shown that they are closely related to brown bears on the Alaska Peninsula and Kamchatka, Russia. It appears that Kodiak bears have been genetically isolated since at least the last ice age (10,000 to 12,000 years ago) and there is very little genetic diversity within the population.
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Quoting EstherD:


Nice shot of the Brocken Spectre.


I think your link is brocken. :) nice image
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25079
90W over the Western Pacific:

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Quoting Grothar:
A fog blob.


Nice shot of the Brocken Spectre.
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430. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE BOLDWIN (03-20122013)
22:30 PM RET November 24 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Boldwin (987 hPa) located at 14.3S 75.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.4S 73.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.7S 70.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.9S 67.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================

Boldwin has shown for a moment a pinhole eye pattern over the past six hours on the infrared imagery. The AMSU-B at 1618 PM UTC confirms that the eye has contracted in the mid-troposphere.

The system is compact and environmental pressure are around 1010 hPa. Consequently, mean sea level pressure is higher than usual for a system of that strength.

Environmental conditions stay rather good aloft the circulation. The wind shear has a little strengthened (about 15 knots according to 1500 pm UTC CIMSS analysis). Upper level divergence is rather good mainly poleward. Sea surface temperature (in the 27-28C range) and oceanic heat contain are also favorable for some further development. This rather favorable environmental conditions are expected to continue until Sunday afternoon.

System is tracking southwestward under the steering influence of the mid-tropospheric ridge in its east. It may stay under this steering influence until 18 to 24 hours.

Late Sunday, northerly then northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen and system is therefore expected to progressively weaken and follow a west to southwestward track under the influence of the subtropical anticyclone. Tuesday and Wednesday, the system should track towards a polar trough transiting in its south. An interaction with the upper level trough that could maintain intensity seems possible according to numerical weather prediction fields. This scenario is highly uncertain it is worth noting that most of the ECMWF ensemble members dissipate the system as soon as Tuesday.
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PensacolaDoug:
364 ScottLincoln: Yep, still near record lows for this time of year.


Given his predilection, I suspect PensacolaDoug was comparing the difference in continental snow cover.
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A fog blob.




Image of severe fog.




A fog event I think they named "Misty"

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25079
I thought this was neat. Here is a simulation of how black holes and other objects affect what we see in space. It is called Gravitational Lensing..
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:





Are you the president of his fan club?



Way to prove a point!
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Quoting schwankmoe:


see what i mean?


Oh darn! You got me!
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Anyone read this story? Two new anchors quit due to bias reporting.

Here's paragraph from the news article with interesting references to global warming (or lack there of.

Palmer sparked sparked a political tiff in 2006, when he was the stations' general manager, for telling his staff that they would no longer report stories on global warming. When "Bar Harbor is underwater, then we can do global warming stories," he wrote in an email obtained by The New York Times. "Until then, no more."

Full article with video

http://jobs.aol.com/articles/2012/11/21/maine-tv- news-anchors-cindy-michaels-and-tony-consiglio-qui t-on/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl2%7Csec1_lnk1%2 6pLid%3D237095



Your link does not go to the article/video.
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What is this blog about right now?
I cant tell, the topic is foggy...
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Not trying to start a huge AGW debate or anything (although that would be better than a fog debate), but it's been a very warm week for the US, record highs way outnumbering record lows. Also numerous rainfall records in the NW from the big storm out there. The East Coast, FL in particular, were the exceptions from the warmth:

Edit: Map didn't show for some reason. Here it is.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:





Are you the president of his fan club?


see what i mean?
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Not always fog that leads to traffic pile ups.....


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 AM MST SAT NOV 24 2012

...ON THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY...

IN 1992, A MAJOR WINTER STORM ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN KANSAS PRODUCED NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WHICH
CONTRIBUTED TO A MASSIVE 200 CAR PILE UP ON INTERSTATE 40 IN
AMARILLO TEXAS. ALL TRAFFIC WAS BROUGHT TO A VIRTUAL STANDSTILL IN
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. 19 INCHES OF SNOW WITH DRIFTS OF
OVER 6 FEET OCCURRED AT LAVERN OKLAHOMA. DRIFTS REACHED 15 FEET
NEAR HUGOTON KANSAS. 17 INCHES FELL AT LIBERAL, 16 INCHES AT GARDEN
CITY AND 14 INCHES AT DODGE CITY IN KANSAS.



Link


Had to do it.... :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.