Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Looking ahead, when is the next apocalypse scheduled after 12/21/12?

think 2060 the year Newton predict apocalypse will happen but I am not sure may be one closer.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Looking ahead, when is the next apocalypse scheduled after 12/21/12?

Well, I had picked 2065 at first thought, since it's the number Isaac Newton picked as being "no earlier than".

But on second thought, I realized just now, "That's unreasonable. No way the whack-jobs would wait that long for the next apocalypse scare!"


So, I probably shouldn't hazard a guess. Maybe the hoaxers and other lunatics will get bored and go back to the usual stuff, like Nostradamus.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Looking ahead, when is the next apocalypse scheduled after 12/21/12?

Patience, Sailor. We ain't done with this one yet.

Seoul set to launch space rocket on Nov. 29

SEOUL, Nov. 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea plans to launch the Korea Space Launch Vehicle-1 (KSLV-1) next week in its third attempt to send a rocket into space from its own soil, a government committee said Thursday.

"Nov. 29 has been set as the candidate launch date," the Naro Launch Preparation Committee said in a released statement. "The possible time of the launch will be between 4 and 6:55 p.m. with the actual time to be decided on the launch date."

It said, however, that both the date and time were still tentative as bad weather conditions and many other issues could further delay the planned launch.

Seoul originally sought to launch the KSLV-1, also known as Naro-1, on Oct. 26 but a broken rubber seal in a connector or adapter between the rocket and its launch pad forced it to reschedule its third attempt to put a rocket into space.

The first two attempts, in August 2009 and June 2010, both ended in failure.

"Regarding the replacement of a defective part in the adapter that caused problems in the Oct. 26 preparations for a launch, thorough investigations have been under way since Nov. 18 when the replacement part arrived here and the tests have yet to point to any additional problems," the committee said.

The ongoing Naro space program began in 2002 but a lack of relevant technology forced the country to seek help from Russia, which has a success rate of 93.6 percent in more than 3,100 space rocket launches between 1950 and 2011.

The first-stage rocket of the two-stage Naro-1 is built by Russia's Khrunichev State Research and Production Space Center with the second-stage of the rocket built by a consortium of more than 150 South Korean companies and research centers, led by the Korea Aerospace Research Institute.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Looking ahead, when is the next apocalypse scheduled after 12/21/12?

12/22/12

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LEVY COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.A COLDER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLDER AIR WILL LEAD TO
A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS LEVY COUNTY DURING
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES SOME
PATCHY FROST MAY FORM IN WIND PROTECTED AREAS.

Quoting TomballTXPride:

That's called weather.

Well, the map was, after all, put out by the "Climate Prediction Center", since it's dealing with longer-term events (temperature anomalies) over a large region (the United States). But you're on the right track!

Quoting allancalderini:
think 2060 the year Newton predict apocalypse will happen but I am not sure may be one closer.

Quoting RTSplayer:
Well, I had picked 2065 at first thought, since it's the number Isaac Newton picked as being "no earlier than". ...

Just finished an interesting foray into Newton's occult studies. Knew that Newton was heavily into stuff like alchemy, but didn't know he also worked on prophetic interpretation of the Bible. A very enjoyable diversion for a slow afternoon, so thanks for the info!

Quoting TomballTXPride:

That's called weather.

This is called:
"The struggle to balance the heat in a changing climate"

I think there are a few apocalypse dates every year, just most aren't as well popularized as Dec 21 2012.

Quoting Skyepony:
Britain braced for flooding chaos

UK looks like it's still getting slammed.

The UK is getting winds up to 80 MPH and continued flooding.
Large areas are under water with more rain to come. Many rivers have burst their banks and measures are been taken to distribute sand bags and warnings are in place to move possessions upstairs and evacuate in some areas.
Heres some photos I found on the BBC site, a drop in the ocean so to say:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/pictures/20445266

I read earlier that the closure of the road "A1," in the north of England for three days due to flooding cost about £250 million or about $400 million, and that's just one road!

Quoting Skyepony:
Britain braced for flooding chaos

UK looks like it's still getting slammed.

I understand the south west ..Cornwall and the other southwest counties have been taking a beating

Risk of severe flooding as more heavy rain hits UK BBC News

and current Radar

After Storm, Dry Floors Prove Value of Exceeding City Code
By MIREYA NAVARRO
NYT - November 23, 2012

Excerpt: In the countdown to Hurricane Sandy last month, construction workers on a teeming pier in Sunset Park, Brooklyn, rushed to strap down materials and move forklifts and excavators into half-built structures to shield them from the tempest to come. But the real storm preparations had been accomplished six years earlier, when Sims Metal Management approved a design for a state-of-the-art city recycling plant that is rising at the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal.

Reviewing projections for local sea-level rise, the company and its architects decided to elevate portions of the site to heights exceeding city requirements by four feet. Using recycled glass and crushed rock discarded from projects like the Second Avenue subway line, they raised the foundation for the plant’s four buildings and a dock. The fill added $550,000 to the plant’s costs of around $100 million, said Thomas Outerbridge, Sims Metal’s general manager. But it proved more than worth it. When a 12-foot storm surge swept through nearby streets and parking lots on Oct. 29, the plant’s dock and partly completed buildings did not flood.

“It paid for itself long before we expected it,” Mr. Outerbridge said. “It was built with the idea that, over the next 40 years, this would prove a prudent thing — and the proof came during construction.”

For years, experts have warned that New York City has failed to keep pace with the threats posed by sea-level rise along the 520-mile coastline of the city’s five boroughs. Builders that have taken steps on their own, like Sims Metal, have been relatively few. But as city officials and real estate developers ponder a landscape of devastation from the South Street Seaport in Lower Manhattan to the Rockaways in Queens to Midland Beach on Staten Island, new flood protections for all building types suddenly seem inevitable, whether voluntary or mandated by new laws.

“Now there’s a different calculus,” the City Council speaker, Christine C. Quinn, said. “You pay now or you pay more later.”

Last week, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and Ms. Quinn convened a new “building resiliency” task force to study potential changes in the building code and to make recommendations by the summer. Ms. Quinn said she anticipated that the city would require retrofits to reinforce existing structures and more floodproofing for new projects.

Article continues here.

I made a mess.

Weakening flag on for BOLDWIN. Wasn't forecast to get much stronger. Pressure is up from 984mb to 986mb.

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
______________________

Lake effect snow


click for larger image

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made a mess.

the graph is understandable to me...

Last news story for the evening, I promise...but this is pretty interesting. They think it was used to predict eclipses:

Part of the 2,100-year-old Antikythera Mechanism, found off southern Greece in 1900 and now in an Athens museum. Photo: THANASSIS STAVRAKIS, STR / AP2006

Ancient 'computer' yielding some secrets
By Allan Turner | November 24, 2012 Houston Chronicle
More than 100 years ago, Greek divers probing an ancient Roman shipwreck off the island of Antikythera retrieved a mysterious object containing gears and covered with inscriptions. Now considered the world's oldest "computer," the apparatus has been the subject of endless scientific conjecture. Using tomographic imaging, scientists with the Antikythera Mechanism Research Project in 2005 got the clearest view of the machine's workings to date. Project director Mike Edmunds, professor emeritus of physics and astronomy at Cardiff University, Wales, spoke at the Houston Museum of Natural Science this week as a guest of the Houston chapter of the Archaeological Institute of America. He spoke with reporter Allan Turner. To read the Q&A click here.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

FLZ020>025-030>032-035>037-040-GAZ132>136-149>153 -162>165-251300-
/O.NEW.KJAX.FZ.A.0009.121126T0900Z-121126T1300Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FZ.W.0010.121125T0700Z-121125T1300Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNI ON-BRADFORD-CLAY-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-MARION-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-
CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JASPER...LIVE OAK...LAKE CITY...
MACCLENNY...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE...LAKE BUTLER...
STARKE...GREEN COVE SPRINGS...TRENTON...GAINESVILLE...PALATKA...
OCALA...DOUGLAS...HAZLEHURST...ALMA...BAXLEY...JE SUP...PEARSON...
WAYCROSS...BLACKSHEAR...NAHUNTA...STATENVILLE...H OMERVILLE...
FOLKSTON...WOODBINE
245 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST
SUNDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR 30 DEGREES OVER
INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS EACH NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...ALONG WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES...FROST IS EXPECTED
OVER INLAND AREAS. PETS AND TENDER VEGETATION SHOULD BE
PROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST 2 HOURS. APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD BE
TAKEN TO ENSURE TENDER VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR PETS HAVE ADEQUATE
PROTECTION FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES. YOUNG CHILDREN...THE
ELDERLY AND THE HOMELESS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE COLD.
TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT THEM.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST 2 HOURS. PRECAUTIONS MAY BE REQUIRED TO PROTECT PLANTS...
PETS AND THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE COLD IF A FREEZE WARNING IS
ISSUED.

&&

$$

Quoting etxwx:
Last news story for the evening, I promise...but this is pretty interesting. They think it was used to predict eclipses:

Part of the 2,100-year-old Antikythera Mechanism, found off southern Greece in 1900 and now in an Athens museum. Photo: THANASSIS STAVRAKIS, STR / AP2006

Ancient 'computer' yielding some secrets
By Allan Turner | November 24, 2012 Houston Chronicle
More than 100 years ago, Greek divers probing an ancient Roman shipwreck off the island of Antikythera retrieved a mysterious object containing gears and covered with inscriptions. Now considered the world's oldest "computer," the apparatus has been the subject of endless scientific conjecture. Using tomographic imaging, scientists with the Antikythera Mechanism Research Project in 2005 got the clearest view of the machine's workings to date. Project director Mike Edmunds, professor emeritus of physics and astronomy at Cardiff University, Wales, spoke at the Houston Museum of Natural Science this week as a guest of the Houston chapter of the Archaeological Institute of America. He spoke with reporter Allan Turner. To read the Q&A click here.

So that's where it ended up! I always wondered what happened to it.

.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Based on precedence we should get a Category 5 hurricane next season.

I call dibs on Chantal.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made a mess.

What does ACE stand for? The only ACE I know is the Advanced Composition Explorer, and it definitely was not operational in 1950...

Quoting fireitup:


What does ACE stand for? The only ACE I know is the Advanced Composition Explorer, and it definitely was not operational in 1950...

Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

Gotcha thanks

Quoting KoritheMan:


I call dibs on Chantal.

I'll go with Erin.

There are now 26 days until the 2012 winter solstice.

I'll go with Ingrid..

Can't every remember seeing the local storm report list so short..

Format's a little sloppy (I'll fix it later), but I finished my Storm History section for Ernesto. Like the other storms I've written for, it is still very much a work in progress, and more data will be added later, including a best track, which I've never done before.

Link

co2now.org

391.03ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for October 2012

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll go with Erin.

This -and the flap about naming winter storms- reminds me of a cartoon in a New Yorker magazine that came out shortly after Sandy tore through town. Visualize a middle-aged couple standing in their living room, up to their thighs in water, with the furniture about to float. The caption: "If they want us to take these storms seriously, they are going to have to give them serious names."

Quoting Bielle:


This -and the flap about naming winter storms- reminds me of a cartoon in a New Yorker magazine that came out shortly after Sandy tore through town. Visualize a middle-aged couple standing in their living room, up to their thighs in water, with the furniture about to float. The caption: "If they want us to take these storms seriously, they are going to have to give them serious names."

"Bingo"..

Calamity comes with or without a name.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I made a mess.

Not messy at all, TA. Thanks.

So what year did the NHC begin to rely more on satellite imagery/analysis for naming storms?

Quoting beell:


Not messy at all, TA. Thanks.

So what year did the NHC begin to rely more on satellite imagery/analysis for naming storms?

1965, Betsy is a good analog fo dat.

Uploaded by PublicResourceOrg on Sep 6, 2008

Department of Defense
Office of Civil Defense
Motion Picture Service

Quoting beell:


Not messy at all, TA. Thanks.

So what year did the NHC begin to rely more on satellite imagery/analysis for naming storms?

Not sure of the exact year, but they started to become more satellite-dependent in the late 50s to early 60s if I remember correctly.

Second US Tar Sands Mine, Owned by Former ExxonMobil and Chevron Exec., Approved in Utah

MCW Enterprises Ltd., a Canada-based corporation, announced on Nov. 19 that it has received all necessary permits to streamline tar sands extraction at its Asphalt Ridge plant located in Vernal, Utah starting in December.

The announcement comes just weeks after U.S. Oil Sands Company received the first ever green light to extract tar sands south in the United States.

Once the bitman is extracted on one of the pits the sand will be extracted to be used to inject into the earth in fracking for gas..this has been propitiatory..didn't realize all these states were being dug up after a certain prehistoric sand.

To date, frac sand mining companies have targeted five states - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Texas, Arkansas, and Iowa - transforming tens of thousands of acres of land into "Sand Land." Utah is soon to become number six.

More here.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


A completely irrelevant distraction when it comes to discussing how fog is treated in the United States. The original discussion starting posts and posts ago seemed to revolve around pile-ups and accidents regarding fog. Most discussed accidents in this very country, and it seemed to stem from the recent pile-up in Texas. Perhaps in other countries that rarely, if ever, see tornadoes and severe hail as we do, or even hurricanes/avalanches/deadly wind chills/etc as we do, fog may be their typical "most severe" weather phenomena. Here in the U.S., that is generally not treated as such. People seem to have provided numerous links to this fact, including meteorological definitions and official agency policies, yet it still keeps being brought up. Perhaps we should just agree that officially-speaking, a few countries may consider fog as a severe weather event but most do not, and in particular, the United States does not, then upon agreeing to this just let this go instead of posting the same type of unofficial news articles over and over.

(And, in case anyone wanted to irrelevantly go there, virtually all climate and meteorological agencies and professional organizations in the U.S. agree with the same climate science as the entire world does. The official temperature records from NOAA/NCDC show the same rate of warming for the globe.)

then why on dr m's blog overlay maps they cosider it severe should we just ignore the dr>??? just trying to figure out the rules...if the rules we only use graphs and maps here in the usa with all weather please let me know so i can debunk other studies conducted outside the usa....including climate change since most are from outside the usa are used...

90W:

Quoting yoboi:



then why on dr m's blog overlay maps they cosider it severe should we just ignore the dr>??? just trying to figure out the rules...if the rules we only use graphs and maps here in the usa with all weather please let me know so i can debunk other studies conducted outside the usa....including climate change since most are from outside the usa are used...

The point keeps going over your head. The discussion was about the US definition of severe weather. There was never any talk or discussion of any sort pertaining to foreign vernacular.

Quoting PlazaRed:


The UK is getting winds up to 80 MPH and continued flooding.
Large areas are under water with more rain to come. Many rivers have burst their banks and measures are been taken to distribute sand bags and warnings are in place to move possessions upstairs and evacuate in some areas.
Heres some photos I found on the BBC site, a drop in the ocean so to say:-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/pictures/20445266

I read earlier that the closure of the road "A1," in the north of England for three days due to flooding cost about £250 million or about $400 million, and that's just one road!

i don't think we can use that data since it's outside the usa....according to mr lincoln

.

Quoting KoritheMan:


The point keeps going over your head. The discussion was about the US definition of severe weather. There was never any talk or discussion of any sort pertaining to foreign vernacular.

there was never any discussion that it had to be usa related scroll back....and i am fine with only using usa data but it works for all studies not just cherry picked data...

I was thinking more along the lines of the maturation of the Dvorak technique and QuickSCAT-in the mid 90's.

I don't think they could measure winds from the crude imagery available in the 50's and 60's.

Quoting bappit:
It seems that fog warning systems bypass the NWS at least for warning systems set up along highways.

Safer Interstate Highways With Automated Fog and Smoke Warning System

"In designing the warning system, GTRI engineers found that various systems, usually simpler ones, have been in use since the early 1980s. The only other similar system in the United States is one on I-75 in Tennessee, but it is not an automated system. So the system near Adel is unique in this nation, though Europe is home to several automated warning systems, Gimmestad says."

Here's a slightly older PDF about how it works.

In days gone fog posed a different problem for fisherman. Here's a painting by Winslow Homer called The Fog Warning.



Edit: ran across this from Nove. 6 2012.

"The Florida Highway Patrol has issued a weather warning for I-75 around mile marker 88 in Collier County.

Fog has reduced visibility in the area. The road is not closed, but drivers are urged to use caution.

In Glades County, troopers have closed State Road 80 at Cowboy Way in LaBelle due to fog. It is not known when the road will reopen.?

can't belive they would close a road for fog a nothing weather event.....