Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A tranquil and record-warm Thanksgiving for much of the U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:35 PM GMT on November 23, 2012

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Celebrations of the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States in 2012 were aided by some of the most tranquil travel weather ever seen on what is America's busiest travel week. Unusually warm and precipitation-free conditions prevailed over almost the entire nation on Wednesday and Thursday, with many locations in the Midwest reporting their warmest Thanksgiving Day on record. At least three cities set records for their warmest temperature ever recorded so late in the year: Valentine, Nebraska (76° on Wednesday); Rochester, Minnesota (70° on Wednesday); and Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan (65° on Thursday.) While the quiet weather was a boon for travelers, the lack of rain in the Midwest allowed the nation's worst drought since 1954 to expand; the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought expanded by 1% to 60% this week. This reversed a seven-week trend of slowly decreasing drought that began on September 25 and extended until November 13, when the area covered by drought declined from 65% to 59%. The latest ten-day forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models show much below average chances of precipitation across more 90% of the U.S., including the drought regions. These dry conditions will allow the drought to expand over the next two weeks, and potentially cover 65% of the contiguous U.S. again by mid-December. The next chance for significant rains in excess of one inch in the Midwest will not occur until December 2, at the earliest. The lack of rain will potentially cause serious trouble for barge traffic on the Mississippi River by December 10, when the river may fall below the level of -5 feet at St. Louis needed to allow barges to not scrape bottom.

Figure 1. This week's U.S. Drought Monitor shows 60% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought.

Figure 2. Predicted 8-day precipitation amounts from the 06Z (1 am EST) November 23, 2012 run of the GFS model. For the 8-day period ending on Saturday, December 1, only the Northwest Coast, Central Gulf Coast, and portions of the Tennessee Valley are predicted to receive rains in excess of one inch. Image credit: NOAA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models is forecasting tropical cyclone development between now and the Friday, November 30 official end of hurricane season. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of one more named storm forming in December in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, but late-season storms forming in that location rarely affect land.

Have a great holiday weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

I Am Thankful (pasocorto)

HappyThanksgiving! (suzi46)

to all our wonderful WU Community..a frigid and frosty daybreak at our neighbor's pond..heading up to a sunny and beautiful 50 degree afternoon..:)

there's always light.. (mieke)

Thanksgiving day parade (Outsideshot)

What a blast. Taken from 54th street and 6ave.

Categories: Drought Heat

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951. Progster 4:45 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Quoting Skyepony: The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is -0.43. With the Kelvin waves dissipating earlier & farther west, looking like a cooler neutral for the winter. Fcst for AO is strongly -ve for the next week. With ENSO neutral, ern US should be cooling off but that doesn't jibe with current CPC forecast of above average for nearly all of the lower 48. Lies, damned lies and statistics :) Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 412

952. jeffs713 4:46 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride: Sure, Jeff. Whatever you say. My point is that there are lots more effective targets to save money than cutting monitoring of our air. Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

953. RitaEvac 4:47 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: Congress is where bills are actually made and passed. Unfortunately, the Republicans still own the house, and there aren't enough independents for the democrats to do anything in the Senate anyway. Basically the government will be in a deadlock on any meaningful issues until mid-term elections, except possibly on random emergency issues like any potential wars or other calamities. Wait till January when the fiscal cliff arrives. Expect hundreds of dollars less in your pay check for the month. Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8881

954. jeffs713 4:51 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: Congress is where bills are actually made and passed. Unfortunately, the Republicans still own the house, and there aren't enough independents for the democrats to do anything in the Senate anyway. Basically the government will be in a deadlock on any meaningful issues until mid-term elections, except possibly on random emergency issues like any potential wars or other calamities. Very true. When rhetoric (on BOTH sides of the aisle) becomes more important than actually managing the country, we are in a sad state as a society. Our country was founded upon compromise. Not a "take-it-or-leave-it" attitude, nor a "you can't touch my sacred cow" mentality. Over the past several congressional sessions, there has been a dearth of compromise, and a lot of rhetoric. Unfortunately, after all that rhetoric, some beneficial programs have been victim of the spending chopping block, like the ozone/PM2.5 monitoring, and weather satellite launches. Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

955. RitaEvac 4:56 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
BAD Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8881

956. RitaEvac 5:00 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Quoting jeffs713: Very true. When rhetoric (on BOTH sides of the aisle) becomes more important than actually managing the country, we are in a sad state as a society. Our country was founded upon compromise. Not a "take-it-or-leave-it" attitude, nor a "you can't touch my sacred cow" mentality. Over the past several congressional sessions, there has been a dearth of compromise, and a lot of rhetoric. Unfortunately, after all that rhetoric, some beneficial programs have been victim of the spending chopping block, like the ozone/PM2.5 monitoring, and weather satellite launches. Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8881

957. bappit 5:01 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Interesting article on the 1939 St. Louis smog event. "Smoke pollution had been a problem in St. Louis for many decades prior to the event, due to the large-scale burning of bituminous (soft) coal to provide heat and power for homes, businesses and transport.[1] In 1893, the Council passed an ordinance prohibiting the emission of "thick grey smoke within the corporate limits of St. Louis" but was unable to enforce it because of legal action taken by one of the worst corporate offenders.[2] The effectiveness of laws was also limited by the lack of adequate inspection and enforcement." Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4364

958. StormPro 5:08 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan: That's just the way some want it. Step 1: remove the monitors, claiming that's it's because of the "current fiscal environment". Step 2: claim that since air pollution is no longer being measured, it clearly doesn't exist. Step 3: claim that air pollution "clearly doesn't exist", then use that "fact" to force loosening of "unnecessary" regulations. Perfect!!! Well who or whom is behind this evil plot? Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 335

961. Tropicsweatherpr 5:12 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
7 TXPQ27 KNES 261517 TCSWNP A. 26W (NONAME) B. 26/1430Z C. 4.2N D. 156.3E E. THREE/MTSAT F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS <-- 35kts / 65kph G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZTION HAS IMPROVED AND MORE DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING AROUND LLCC. WITH DT=2.5 BASED ON 5/10 BANDING. MET=2.0 AND PAT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...SWANSON Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8136

962. StormPro 5:18 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Quoting jeffs713: so let me get this straight... You propose that it is good to end Ozone and PM2.5 monitoring... but also good to build an airfield and small port without connections to any town nearby... to the tune of $77 million. Source Or the US Navy dropping $12 million on biofuels to "showcase the fuel"... that $12 million was only $27 a gallon. Or how food stamps can be used to purchase alcohol and junk food. Or how oil companies get massive tax breaks yet turn record profits well above the value of those tax breaks. Or how $5.1 million was spent on building a THIRD golf course at Andrews AFB. I can go on like this all day... Yeah, someone needs their priorities adjusted, and its not me. Just had an election...did you vote for the continued "hope and change"? You will get what you deserve. Cut the welfare spending...highest in history..use some of those billions to fund whatever monitors you want. I would gladly pay these high and soon to be higher taxes for a solution..not just contributing to a lazy populous. 65 and rainy here in NOLA Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 335

963. txjac 5:18 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Link Compliments of the Associated Press. New terminology for the upcoming UN climate change talks. BTW ...80 degrees here in Houston and partly cloudy. Waiting for the cold front and rain that is supposed to be here later this afternoon Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1563

964. weathermanwannabe 5:19 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Good Afternoon, and politics and corporate profits aside, I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving Holiday.....Pretty cold for the SE US the past few days but a warming trend this week. Was really nice to get the Winter Chill on during Thanksgiving Weekend......Just too many leaves to bag in the yard on Friday and full again on Saturday. Gonna wait a few weeks for some fronts to finish knocking down the rest. Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6682

965. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 5:22 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

966. bappit 5:24 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Quoting jeffs713: The notice specifies predictions. It would seem that measurements will still be taken. There's a list of everything measured here. "Section 182(c)(1) of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) required the Administrator to promulgate rules for the enhanced monitoring of ozone, oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and volatile organic compounds (VOC) to obtain more comprehensive and representative data on ozone air pollution. Immediately following the promulgation of such rules, the affected States were to commence such actions as were necessary to adopt and implement a program to improve ambient monitoring activities and the monitoring of emissions of NOx and VOC. Each State Implementation Plan (SIP) for the affected areas must contain measures to implement the ambient monitoring of such air pollutants. The subsequent revisions to Title 40, Code of Federal Regulations, Part 58 (40 CFR 58) required States to establish Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) as part of their SIP monitoring networks in ozone nonattainment areas classified as serious, severe, or extreme." Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4364

967. reedzone 5:27 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Quoting jeffs713: so let me get this straight... You propose that it is good to end Ozone and PM2.5 monitoring... but also good to build an airfield and small port without connections to any town nearby... to the tune of $77 million. Source Or the US Navy dropping $12 million on biofuels to "showcase the fuel"... that $12 million was only $27 a gallon. Or how food stamps can be used to purchase alcohol and junk food. Or how oil companies get massive tax breaks yet turn record profits well above the value of those tax breaks. Or how $5.1 million was spent on building a THIRD golf course at Andrews AFB. I can go on like this all day... Yeah, someone needs their priorities adjusted, and its not me. Perhaps you still fail to realize that this is what Obama wants... You'll see in a few years. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

968. PensacolaDoug 5:32 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Same as it ever was. Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827

969. plutorising 6:27 PM GMT on November 26, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: That's not me, I can assure you. I was only banned for 4 hours, with the remark "Take a break". Implying the moderator probably doesn't entirely disagree with me either, but I can say I touched on some sensitive areas with certain members. The video I linked to was probably just too much. I did not circumvent the ban, and I have no connection to the poster "sheople". i think rts means 'real time strategy' which would be the idea behind the abandonment of ozone measurement. Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 73

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