October 2012: Earth's 5th warmest October on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:18 PM GMT on November 15, 2012

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October 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest October on record, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today. NASA rated October 2012 the 2nd warmest October on record. Global temperature records begin in 1880. October 2012 global land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 4th warmest on record. October 2012 was the 332nd consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average October global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in October 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 2nd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of October 2012 in his October 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2012, the 5th warmest October for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Several regions around the globe were much warmer than average, including northeastern and southwestern North America, most of South America, northern Africa, southeastern Europe, southwestern Asia, and far eastern Russia. A heat wave brought record warmth to large areas of Brazil and Bolivia. Record heat was also present in southern India. It was cooler than average in parts of northern Siberia, Mongolia, and northern China along with much of central North America. Western Canada was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch discontinued
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C above average as of November 12. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has cancelled their El Niño watch, and expects neutral El Niño conditions for the coming winter. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in October 2012 (thick black line) was the second lowest since satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice extent has sunk to the lowest values on record for this time of year during the first half of November. The previous record low occurred in 2007 (magenta line.) Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and meteomodel.pl.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest October extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during October reached its second lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Beginning in late October, Arctic sea ice extent began setting new daily record lows again, and it is very likely we will have a new monthly record low for the month of November. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my October 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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GW time so soon? Oh well...see ya in March when the chase season starts.

Keep Calm and Carry On!
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I guess my point is how we can become when things don't go our why. ie: the people in the northeast that have attacked the utility workers that are doing there best to get power back on. I live in south Florida and have seen the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde when things don't go to our liking during hurricanes. It's a shame, but I guess we aren't as civilized as we would like to think we are.
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Since I can't read anything but GW on here, can someone let me know about the storm that was supposed to be developing off the coast of NC?
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Ever read the book "Lord of the Flies" by William Golding? My favorite all-time book. It says so much about "US" and how we "CAN" become
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Quoting pcola57:


I know,it happens every year..and climate is very important..no matter where you stand on the issue..
But it's not constructive discussion..leads nowhere and causes enemies here..
Childish..why not take it to their own blogs for a further dissertation???


I try to stay away from it..it brings out some ugly posts on here from bloggers..
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BBL
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6925
Quoting pcola57:
You know I was going to post an item about my local weather and after reading through the the blog,I don't think I will..

It's turned to a whipping post in here for/against climate..
I realize it's ok as to the rules..
But day in,day out?..24/7..
There's gotta be a better way or civil forum to take it to.. :(


Please do post your local weather item. It will only improve today's blog...

I admit I kind of enjoy the climate change debates here (sometimes). But, today's debate is a little weak... more DATA people, show us more DATA!




It's been warm in Colorado...
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting ncstorm:


I honestly thinks the Doc/Admin enjoy the bickering..look how fast another climate change blog came up..

Welcome to the winter blogs..


I know,it happens every year..and climate is very important..no matter where you stand on the issue..
But it's not constructive discussion..leads nowhere and causes enemies here..
Childish..why not take it to their own blogs for a further dissertation???
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6925
Quoting ScottLincoln:

If you are interested in seeing how much CO2 is emitted by a typical person and how that changes with different changes in activity, I might suggest searching for a carbon footprint calculator.

A simple google search yielded:
http://www.nature.org/greenliving/carboncalculato r/index.htm
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/ind -calculator.html


thanks....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 8 Comments: 2978
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Why is it cold in FL now??? 58 in Gainesville at 5PM????
very thick stratus today. There was limited time for heating
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Quoting pcola57:
You know I was going to post an item about my local weather and after reading through the the blog,I don't think I will..

It's turned to a whipping post in here for/against climate..
I realize it's ok as to the rules..
But day in,day out?..24/7..
There's gotta be a better way or civil forum to take it to.. :(


I honestly thinks the Doc/Admin enjoy the bickering..look how fast another climate change blog came up..

Welcome to the winter blogs..
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Why is it cold in FL now??? 58 in Gainesville at 5PM????
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4995
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The heating and cooling that happened in the past usually happened over geological time scales, and usually with drastic consequences on the life forms that existed at the time.

The heating we're seeing now is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison, and is already having global impacts.

Your statement is akin to not evacuating in the face of a Cat 5 hurricane because the weather will clear up again after the hurricane passes.
No,I have to disagree. However I do appreciate the cat 5 analogy,that was classic! lol
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You know I was going to post an item about my local weather and after reading through the the blog,I don't think I will..

It's turned to a whipping post in here for/against climate..
I realize it's ok as to the rules..
But day in,day out?..24/7..
There's gotta be a better way or civil forum to take it to.. :(
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6925
Quoting yoboi:



how much co2 do you send into the atmosphere??
Quoting yoboi:



how much co2 do you send into the atmosphere??
Quoting yoboi:



how much co2 do you send into the atmosphere??

If you are interested in seeing how much CO2 is emitted by a typical person and how that changes with different changes in activity, I might suggest searching for a carbon footprint calculator.

A simple google search yielded:
http://www.nature.org/greenliving/carboncalculato r/index.htm
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/ind -calculator.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxgeek723:


The worst part is that we waste so much time trying to CONVINCE people it's happening when we could be working to fight the issue.


Some people will never be convinced. Spend your engery doing the things you can control. Over time when a lot of people do that, a lot of change happens and you don't have to waste your precious energy arguing with a brick wall.
Member Since: July 24, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 927
it seems to be about half trolls on this page right now.
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Quoting jackzig:


We are all entitled to our own "opinions", what we are not entitled to are our own "facts".

The vast majority of the worlds climate scientists agree that GW is real, and it is contributed to by the actions of man. To deny this truth is to deny future generations of a habitable planet. We must reduce our carbon footprint, to do otherwise is beyond foolish.


Tell that to BP who just earned $5.5 billion for the third quarter. That means they will make over $20 billion for 2012. That is absurd. This is why they don't mind paying these upcoming fines. Do you really think they will reduce their carbon footprint and give up this amount of dough? If there is ever a carbon tax, they will just pay it, no matter what the amount is.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1808
Quoting luvtogolf:


"The heating we're seeing now is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison".

So you have scientific proof that in no time before in the history of our planet that it has never warmed this fast over a blink of an eye timeframe?


That is a loaded question... It does not matter.

Climate warms/cools/changes in response to forcings that make it change. If there were forcings in the past that were stronger and faster than today's anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, then climate would have changed faster. Climate doesn't care if it's GHGs, volcanoes, or the sun's output quadrupling.

Today's changes are a mere blip on geologic timescales, outpacing the vast majority of known changes, particularly those in the time frame of humans existing on earth. Depending on the study, these changes could be the fastest in 100s or the fastest in 1000s of years.
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Quoting jackzig:


We are all entitled to our own "opinions", what we are not entitled to are our own "facts".

The vast majority of the worlds climate scientists agree that GW is real, and it is contributed to by the actions of man. To deny this truth is to deny future generations of a habitable planet. We must reduce our carbon footprint, to do otherwise is beyond foolish.


As true now as it was twenty years ago.
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Quoting Arisilde:


Extend your trend line through 2012 data set...
Quoting Minnemike:
are the valleys getting smaller, higher up? stop focusing on the peaks, this is the data. there were thousands of 'periods of cooling' within this data.. the line represents the beginning of the data to the end.. it IS through the 2012 set.
looking at the trend, but what do you honestly expect to happen over another decade?
not what Can you imagine, what Is to be expected by the data Alone?
and the thing is, this isn't even the whole story, it is probably the rosiest of raw data sets there is.


I think this data was updated earlier this year or in late 2011. Either way, 1 year is weather, not climate. Generally, 15+ years are needed to describe climate and estimate trends. Typically defintions of climate are ~30yrs. Blips on monthly timescales are going to have a hard time changing datasets with around 360 months...
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Quoting seminolesfan:
The debate is in the degree of variability, if you'll pardon the pun.


Because climate variability is not climate change, as such, the debate in climate science wouldn't be over variability. Variability is the noise on top of the trend. The trend is climatic, the variability is weather, or a mix of some weather and some short term "oscillations."

Climate variability is a topic for much scientific research right now, but for an entirely different reason. It's the climate variability that we generally feel... it's El Nino, it's periods of hyper-active tropics, it's several year long droughts.

Quoting seminolesfan:

I just believe that a lot of the most dire predictions and headline worthy analyses are waaay overdone.


Which predictions? Be specific. So far, the majority of predictions made by mainstream climate scientists and the IPCC are being followed closely or exceeded.
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You really only have to look at that graph at the top of the page which shows the levels of Acrtic ice over the last few years and wheather or not you agree with the warming theories, its hard to argue against the fact that recorded ice levels are decreasing.
This is to some of us a great concern, to others its an anomoly or a blip in the global, warm, cold swings.
The fact is that by the time its either recognised that its serious or the blip disapears the effects of the events of ice loss etc will have been anything from disturbing to catostrphic!
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Quoting Arisilde:


Extend your trend line through 2012 data set...
are the valleys getting smaller, higher up? stop focusing on the peaks, this is the data. there were thousands of 'periods of cooling' within this data.. the line represents the beginning of the data to the end.. it IS through the 2012 set.
looking at the trend, but what do you honestly expect to happen over another decade?
not what Can you imagine, what Is to be expected by the data Alone?
and the thing is, this isn't even the whole story, it is probably the rosiest of raw data sets there is.
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Quoting seminolesfan:


You have your opinions and others have theirs.


We are all entitled to our own "opinions", what we are not entitled to are our own "facts".

The vast majority of the worlds climate scientists agree that GW is real, and it is contributed to by the actions of man. To deny this truth is to deny future generations of a habitable planet. We must reduce our carbon footprint, to do otherwise is beyond foolish.
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Same rehashed nonsense that has already been spewed and debunked. Maybe even multiple times?

The MetOffice dataset, commonly referred to as HadCRUT, has the slowest rate of warming of any of the temperature datasets. And even with that slowest rate, it is still showing warming, and following the same trend as before:


For scientific and skeptic minded individuals, the following read would be helpful to refresh some climate statistics:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/07/14/fifteen/


Extend your trend line through 2012 data set...
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Quoting seminolesfan:


The debate is in the degree of variability, if you'll pardon the pun.

The AGW crew like to take the stance of "if you're not with us you're against us". ....

if i could make one correction please, it is:
"if you are not with the insurmountable data and environmental signals, you are against them"
do you recognize the difference? there is a parallel argument about sourcing and how data is used, which is basically the result of policy institutions initiating reinterpretations of factual data. it is called spin, and yes, any agenda relies on this activity. however, when one eliminates the spin (or character flaws of messengers) from BOTH sides of the argument, hard facts remain.
-they are the insurmountable data and environmental signals.
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Quoting seminolesfan:

Not bad, Dumpster. You?


Not too bad - nice weather down here. Glad to hear you are doing well.
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Quoting seminolesfan:


The debate is in the degree of variability, if you'll pardon the pun.

The AGW crew like to take the stance of "if you're not with us you're against us". I just believe that a lot of the most dire predictions and headline worthy analyses are waaay overdone. I also believe there are many climate scientists way too biased to have a preconceived preferred outcome for their "experiments".

I don't think this will be solved overnight; Which, honestly, makes the debate smolder on. You have your opinions and others have theirs.


The AGW crew



Beware Bloods and Crips..

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Quoting overwash12:
As it has happened in the past,as it will also cool again in the future as it has in the past.


The heating and cooling that happened in the past usually happened over geological time scales, and usually with drastic consequences on the life forms that existed at the time.

The heating we're seeing now is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison, and is already having global impacts.

Your statement is akin to not evacuating in the face of a Cat 5 hurricane because the weather will clear up again after the hurricane passes.
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Quoting Dakster:


How ya' been, Semenolesfan?

Not bad, Dumpster. You?
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Quoting ScottLincoln:

Same rehashed nonsense that has already been spewed and debunked. Maybe even multiple times?

The MetOffice dataset, commonly referred to as HadCRUT, has the slowest rate of warming of any of the temperature datasets. And even with that slowest rate, it is still showing warming, and following the same trend as before:


For scientific and skeptic minded individuals, the following read would be helpful to refresh some climate statistics:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/07/14/fifteen/
i don't know ScottL.. i'm Pretttty sure time began at peak El Nino, 1997/98... this inclusion of additional data from prior years by the same instrumentation looks like cherry picking to me ;)
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Quoting wxgeek723:


Wait there was a winter last year? For me it was just kind of four straight months of November and then it just went straight into May...in March.


LOL. You know what I mean :P .... As much of a winter as we can expect here in FL, although much shorter than normal.
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Quoting charlottefl:


That's my biggest issue with that discussion also. Arguing about it accomplishes nothing except dividing the two sides even more. Plant a tree, recycle more, lobby for policy change, or there are any # of other things you can do... But staying on weather related stuff, looking forward to possibly a longer winter down here this year. Last winter was way too short.


Wait there was a winter last year? For me it was just kind of four straight months of November and then it just went straight into May...in March.
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Quoting seminolesfan:


The debate is in the degree of variability, if you'll pardon the pun.

The AGW crew like to take the stance of "if you're not with us you're against us". I just believe that a lot of the most dire predictions and headline worthy analyses are waaay overdone. I also believe there are many climate scientists way too biased to have a preconceived preferred outcome for their "experiments".

I don't think this will be solved overnight; Which, honestly, makes the debate smolder on. You have your opinions and others have theirs.


How ya' been, Semenolesfan?
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Quoting Arisilde:
Relax Global Warming is over...

Link


Well, the first big red flag here is that you're linking to The Daily Fail, which is roughly equivalent to the Weekly World News here in the US.

Second, there is nothing secretive about the HadCRUT data release. They release data regularly and it is available online for anyone to look through.

Third, there is no indication that warming has abated (especially considering we've had our warmest decade on record and this year will likely break 1998's record without even having an El Nino event). Sure, if you're an idiot looking to draw eyeballs to your nonsensical tripe and ignore statistical and scientific principles, you can cherry-pick a point in any dataset and yell "See! No increase!". However, such blather hardly qualifies as scientific rigour and would be rejected so fast from any legitimate scientific journal it would probably catch on fire.

The article has been roundly and soundly debunked by real scientists, and is just another in a long line of journalistic travesties from The Daily Fail. If you want real scientific information, I suggest Nature or other respectable scientific publication, or the IPCC reports.
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Take a look here in Barrow... Looks pretty frozen to me.

http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_ webcam

Link

Temperature right now is a balmy 7F.
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Quoting hydrus:
Lets add the cost of two wars, natural disasters, government bailouts and deregulation.......I believe I,m going to puke.


That Jaron Unix fella had some interesting things to say about money in his (I think last) book "You are not a Gadget". I really recommend that book. Anyway, what he does have to say about money will broaden the game space in which to think about the problem of debt, depression, etc.
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Quoting wxgeek723:


The worst part is that we waste so much time trying to CONVINCE people it's happening when we could be working to fight the issue.


That's my biggest issue with that discussion also. Arguing about it accomplishes nothing except dividing the two sides even more. Plant a tree, recycle more, lobby for policy change, or there are any # of other things you can do... But staying on weather related stuff, looking forward to possibly a longer winter down here this year. Last winter was way too short.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody out there that denies global warming is, quite frankly, denying reality. The amount of evidence for GW significantly outnumbers the evidence against it...which isn't much besides an abundance of scientifically nonfactual statements produced by the uninformed.


The debate is in the degree of variability, if you'll pardon the pun.

The AGW crew like to take the stance of "if you're not with us you're against us". I just believe that a lot of the most dire predictions and headline worthy analyses are waaay overdone. I also believe there are many climate scientists way too biased to have a preconceived preferred outcome for their "experiments".

I don't think this will be solved overnight; Which, honestly, makes the debate smolder on. You have your opinions and others have theirs.
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Quoting Chucktown:


Even above normal along the north slope of Alaska during the winter, temps will be well below zero. It'll be dark up there 24/7 very shortly.


Ah, perhaps I was unclear. Certainly it will still be below freezing up there this winter. That's a given. But the length of time that the ice roads are stable may be shorter due to this predicted warm anomaly. That will almost certainly cut into the work season since oil development work up there is done mostly during the winter in order to protect the tundra and keep trucks from disappearing...

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah I was referring to Central Florida, yes there is a big difference between here and down there. I've seen many days where we have highs in the 50's and 60's during the winter here but it still manages to crack the low to mid 70's down there. It's almost like a barrier. I personally like Central and North Florida better because we still have that tropical-like feel here much of the year but we still get a nice long change in season instead of the same warm weather pattern 90% of the year. I don't like real cold, that is northern cold with snow and cold cloudy days. But I don't like endless warmth either. 80's to me get old and boring if you have them too often. It's nice to have a colder season with 70's, 60's and even 50's for highs can be nice as long as its not all the time.


That barrier sits right across about Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda. It's not uncommon for it to get into the mid-upper 20's there during a cold winter. I've lived in Ft. Myers 3 years now and I've never seen it get below like 32-33. And the day time temps are much warmer here...

EDIT: For those who aren't familiar with the area. I'm one county to the south of Charlotte County (where Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte are)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody out there that denies global warming is, quite frankly, denying reality. The amount of evidence for GW significantly outnumbers the evidence against it...which isn't much besides an abundance of scientifically nonfactual statements produced by the uninformed.


The worst part is that we waste so much time trying to CONVINCE people it's happening when we could be working to fight the issue.
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nice little clump of moisture sw of the cape verdes say thats unusual to be there
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Phil Jones and his colleagues now admit they do not understand the role of ‘natural variability’.
The most depressing feature of this debate is that anyone who questions the alarmist, doomsday scenario will automatically be labelled a climate change ‘denier’, and accused of jeopardising the future of humanity.


Couldn't be...

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Quoting MrMixon:


Looks like the North Slope of Alaska is supposed to be especially warm this winter. I wonder if that will affect oil production in the area? Up there they depend upon solidly frozen ground in the winter in order to work in areas that would otherwise be waterlogged (or just water).


Even above normal along the north slope of Alaska during the winter, temps will be well below zero. It'll be dark up there 24/7 very shortly.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1808

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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