October 2012: Earth's 5th warmest October on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:18 PM GMT on November 15, 2012

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October 2012 was the globe's 5th warmest October on record, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today. NASA rated October 2012 the 2nd warmest October on record. Global temperature records begin in 1880. October 2012 global land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 4th warmest on record. October 2012 was the 332nd consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average October global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in October 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 7th or 2nd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of October 2012 in his October 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for October 2012, the 5th warmest October for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Several regions around the globe were much warmer than average, including northeastern and southwestern North America, most of South America, northern Africa, southeastern Europe, southwestern Asia, and far eastern Russia. A heat wave brought record warmth to large areas of Brazil and Bolivia. Record heat was also present in southern India. It was cooler than average in parts of northern Siberia, Mongolia, and northern China along with much of central North America. Western Canada was much cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch discontinued
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C above average as of November 12. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has cancelled their El Niño watch, and expects neutral El Niño conditions for the coming winter. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in October 2012 (thick black line) was the second lowest since satellite records began in 1979. Sea ice extent has sunk to the lowest values on record for this time of year during the first half of November. The previous record low occurred in 2007 (magenta line.) Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and meteomodel.pl.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest October extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during October reached its second lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Beginning in late October, Arctic sea ice extent began setting new daily record lows again, and it is very likely we will have a new monthly record low for the month of November. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my October 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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Worldwide snow also way above normal.

Link

Plenty to chew on for the night.
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205. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Chucktown:
Ahh, more fuel to the fire !!

Link


As stated in the article..that is a bold prediction..look close at the years there.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37197
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
The upcoming ice age has been postponed indefinitely

Posted on 27 January 2010 by John Cook

The 9th most popular skeptic argument is that we're heading into an ice age. The whole premise of the website Ice Age Now is that a new ice age could begin any day. Considering the skeptic aversion towards alarmism, it's surprising that this idea has gained so much traction. In the interest of lowering skeptics' stress levels, its time to put all those ice age fears to rest once and for all.



http://www.skepticalscience.com/upcoming-ice-age- postponed-indefinitely.html


----------

iceagenow.com content is run by a former architect turned author called Robert Felix. Many of the articles are in denial of climate science...

Read more on Mr Felix and the myth of glaciers advancing in George Monbiot's 2005 column from the Guardian: Junk Science
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2005/may/10 /environment.columnists



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Ahh, more fuel to the fire !!

Link

Read the comments below the article.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1713
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Looks like Yuba City, Ca. is gonna' get wallooped by a winter storm causing extended periods of possible travel delays and possible life-threatening weather. Could this be winterstorm Cletus to be? It's not fair to ask the west to absorb another storm of any sort so soon after the havoc caused by Brutus. I understand 24 miles of I-65 were shut down for a few hours and 106 new trails were open in ski country. Brutus in the short and long term was an economic and climatological net positive, I'd posit.

NWS Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-CA124CCFECDFF0.SpecialWeatherState ment.124CCFFA7868CA.MFRSPSMFR.633be39cc4ed2f8d6e6f 2d70190422b3 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Sent: 14:20 PST on 11-15-2012
Effective: 14:20 PST on 11-15-2012
Expires: 03:30 PST on 11-16-2012
Event: Special Weather Statement
Alert:

...PROLONGED WET AND WINDY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND THEN ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST...OVER THE RIDGES OF THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS...AND EAST OF THE CASCADES ARE LIKELY TO GUST 40
TO 60 MPH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
INITIAL FRONT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST...WHILE
WINDS INLAND WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
INITIAL FRONT...PEAKING SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION RATES OF 1 TO
3 INCHES IN JUST A SIX HOUR PERIOD SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON COAST.
SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY NEAR 6500 FEET WILL LOWER TO 3500 TO 4500
FEET BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS ABOVE 5500 FEET...AND 6 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED AT
THIS SAME ELEVATION IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. WHILE SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AT PASS LEVEL ON INTERSTATE FIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...IT
IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE INITIAL STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WINDIER AND WETTER FRONTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY GUST 55
TO 75 MPH ALONG THE COAST...OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS
THE EAST SIDE. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL SURGE UPWARD TO 6000 TO 7000 FEET EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT THEN WILL LOWER BACK TO 3500 TO 4500 FEET MID-
WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN APPRECIABLE RISES AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING ON CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. ADDITIONAL STORM
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED LATER NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR FURTHER DETAILS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THIS ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES.

Instructions:
Target Area:
Central Siskiyou County
Modoc County
North Central and Southeast Siskiyou County
Northeast Siskiyou and Northwest Modoc Counties
South Central Siskiyou County
Western Siskiyou County
Forecast Office: NWS Medford (Southwest Oregon and Northern California)


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200. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37197
Quoting txjac:


The Daily Mail doesnt get everything wrong ...first place that I heard about Iran shooting at our drone, it was also the first place that I read about things being done (had some wine so I cant remember what?) about slowing or reversing AGW. I actually emailed it to Nea to ask about it and he said he had heard about it too ...and not just the Daily Mail.

People have to read all sides of issues and not just rely on the side that talks about the way that they feel.


That would be correct if the "side" you are referring to wasn't consistently misrepresenting data. Anyone who thinks/says global warming stopped 16 years ago has a few screws loose.
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Quoting pcola57:
Helloooo?? Do you see me Sherwood? TA? Caicos?Bohonk? Anyone?


Thanks Sherwood.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
Quoting wxchaser97:

I see you pcola!


Cool wx..I felt so alone..LOL.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
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Quoting pcola57:

I see you wx..you see me?

I see you pcola!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Looks like Yuba City, Ca. is gonna' get wallooped by a winter storm causing extended periods of possible travel delays and possible life-threatening weather. Yuba City may have to take one on the chin like Fourteenpeoplelivethere, Mt. did during Brutus's full wrath. Could this be winterstorm Cletus to be? It's not fair to ask the west to absorb another storm of any sort so soon after the havoc caused by Brutus. I understand 24 miles of I-65 were shut down for a few hours and 106 new trails were open in ski country. Brutus in the short and long term was an economic and climatological net positive, I'd posit.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Hello anyone who sees this...

I see you wx..you see me?
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
Hello anyone who sees this...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
National Geographic Channel is doing a show called Superstorm 2012. Started at 9 Central time, will repeat again at 11PM central.
Lots of footage of Sandy I've never seen. Some I have. Even after all the videos and photos I've seen, it's still so shocking.
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 394
Mild here in South Central Texas, no rain to talk about since Late Sept and the cracks in the ground are getting pretty big, we could use a Flood or 2 here as Lake Travis is down like 52 feet. I was hoping for El Nino but that looks like it won't happen. Currently a pleasant 58 degrees with low humidity.
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Helloooo?? Do you see me Sherwood? TA? Caicos?Bohonk? Anyone?
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
*poke poke*
Are we back? :)
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OOOooooopps...

big blog hole...
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Blog is having some errors tonight..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31343
147 Chucktown: A friend just sent this to me - Sandy NWS assessment team disbands.
151 CybrTeddy: Does that say Sandy's total damages will be over 100 billion? Wow.

In NewYork alone, unemployment claims have risen by 360thousand in the past 2weeks due to layoffs by businesses still in the process of attempting to recover from Sandy.
Because the subject is important enough, I'm breaking my own strictly-held rule of never reposting in-full
Well, that was fast.
The entire National Weather Service's "Service Assessment" for the "Hurricane Sandy Event" (as the assessment team named the study, hereinafter SA) has been terminated.

In an email at 9:46 this morning, Douglas Young of the National Weather Service wrote the SA team members:
I am writing to inform you that effective immediately we are terminating the spin-up of the National Weather Service Sandy Service Assessment Team.

We have been informed that a larger, multi-agency review of this event may take place
... [emphasis mine]

Sandy will likely end up causing $100 billion or more in total (direct and indirect) damage and more than 125 deaths. Because of its importance, on November 2, I urged the NWS to charter a completely independent investigation.
The NWS, instead, decided to go ahead with its internal service assessment but for the first time put an outsider -- me -- in the co-chair position. I was told by David Caldwell, Director, Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services, that I would learn the NWS wanted an unbiased and thorough examination of Sandy.

Given the scores of deaths and the huge level of damage (according to media reports 100,000+ are still without power), even with excellent forecasts the Sandy Assessment may have been the most important the National Weather Service has ever conducted. Now it has been stopped. Why?

In the short period of time I worked on this project, a number of interesting questions surfaced:
Was there a decision not to call Sandy a "hurricane" regardless of its meteorological characteristics? If this decision was made, was it made Friday (October 26th) or Saturday morning? If so, who made the decision and why?
Was this decision the reason hurricane warnings, in spite of a large and dangerous hurricane moving toward the coast, were never issued?
Given that an obvious large and powerful hurricane was headed for the U.S. coast, why wasn't that decision reconsidered? For example, Barry Myers, the CEO of AccuWeather, urged (on the AccuWeather.com website) the immediate issuance of hurricane warnings about eight hours before landfall. Others also urged the lack of hurricane warnings to be reconsidered.

While the team's work officially didn't begin until Tuesday (November 13), I had already gathered hundreds of pages of information, literally dozens of suggestions, and some rather tantalizing leads that Sandy may or may not have been handled as it should have been from a scientific, administrative, or communications standpoint.
Now, in spite of all of the suffering and billions in damage, we may never know how well all the storm was handled.

A personal note: I was very impressed with the other members of the SA team. I'm sorry we will not be able to complete our assignment.
Posted by Mike Smith
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
Quoting Neapolitan:
The latest official word is that Sandy's damages could top $30 billion in New York alone, and up to $60 billion elsewhere for a total of as high as $90 billion or so. (Insured losses would likely be between a third to one-half of that.

Do you have a source for those figures?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Does that say Sandy's total damages will be over 100 billion? Wow.
The latest official word is that Sandy's damages could top $30 billion in New York alone, and up to $60 billion elsewhere for a total of as high as $90 billion or so. (Insured losses would likely be between a third to one-half of that.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13443
Quoting txjac:
Maybe some of the people here that havent made a decision about AGW or who are on the fence are wondering about that have made up their mind about it being totally true and what they are doing about it personally?

I have seen in the past many people asking others what they are doing to reduce their carbon impact and those questions are unanswered.

I'm one of those on the fence ...I do believe that the way we treat our planet is awful (reminds me of that old commercial where the Indian is looking at a stream with a tear running down his face as he looks at the debris in a river/creek). I know that they way that we treat mother earth is horrible and I do what I can to make it better

1. Used to live 38 miles from my office and made the move to now be six miles away from the office
2. Recycle plastic
3. Leave my cans where there is a disabled man that picks them up to turn in to cash
4. Consolodate trips
5. Walk to the store for small trips with items that I can handle carrying
6. Donate clothes and food.
7. Monitor my electric

What more can we do?

I never see more suggestions?
Everyone seems like they want to beat "big oil" but its what we have right now and I thinkg that we should all join together to lessen the amount of usage. I know that alternatives are being worked on and once they become price comprable I will be looking to change.

Maybe those that are total believers can list out what they are doing or what others can be doing to reduce our footbprints


It's hard to live a really efficient lifestyle. I drive the most fuel efficient car I can afford, use burlap bags instead of plastic or paper, recycle, shop and buy local whenever possible (if not I shop at employee and eco friendly big businesses and buy ecologically sustainable food and goods), buy new and eco-friendly electronics to lower power usage, etc.
None of this by any means makes me a close to perfect eco consumer, however, I do my best to balance economics and ecology and support local business.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting txjac:
Maybe some of the people here that havent made a decision about AGW or who are on the fence are wondering about that have made up their mind about it being totally true and what they are doing about it personally?

I have seen in the past many people asking others what they are doing to reduce their carbon impact and those questions are unanswered.

I'm one of those on the fence ...I do believe that the way we treat our planet is awful (reminds me of that old commercial where the Indian is looking at a stream with a tear running down his face as he looks at the debris in a river/creek). I know that they way that we treat mother earth is horrible and I do what I can to make it better

1. Used to live 38 miles from my office and made the move to now be six miles away from the office
2. Recycle plastic
3. Leave my cans where there is a disabled man that picks them up to turn in to cash
4. Consolodate trips
5. Walk to the store for small trips with items that I can handle carrying
6. Donate clothes and food.
7. Monitor my electric

What more can we do?

I never see more suggestions?
Everyone seems like they want to beat "big oil" but its what we have right now and I thinkg that we should all join together to lessen the amount of usage. I know that alternatives are being worked on and once they become price comprable I will be looking to change.

Maybe those that are total believers can list out what they are doing or what others can be doing to reduce our footbprints


Your doing more than most..
And I do remember that commercial with the Indian..it was touching..
Maybe a campain like that with re-cycle tips would have an impact..
I know for a fact my daughter has never seen it..
We need to do more thinking and less finger pointing..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
176. etxwx
PRI's To the Point radio show had an interesting topic today: Oil and Gas Boom Reshapes US Energy Landscape.

It's been in the news that the US is poised to become "energy independent" but this is the part I did not know: (emphasis added) "Dr. Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency said the agency’s prediction of increasing American self-sufficiency was 55 percent a reflection of more oil production and 45 percent a reflection of improving energy efficiency in the United States, primarily from the Obama administration’s new fuel economy standards for cars. He added that even stronger policies to promote energy efficiency were needed in the United States and many other countries."

I had no idea energy efficiency contributed that much to our potential energy independence - that's a good sign. The show also discussed natural gas for transportation fleets, bio-fuels, fracking, the climate and more. I thought it was pretty informative and an even-handed discussion.

The podcast can be downloaded here.

There is no transcript available, but the guests and the topics they discussed are linked here:
Elisabeth Rosenthal - NYT
Kevin G. Hall - McClatchy Newspapers
Philip Verleger
Ralph Cavanagh - NRDC
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1429
175. txjac
Maybe some of the people here that havent made a decision about AGW or who are on the fence are wondering about that have made up their mind about it being totally true and what they are doing about it personally?

I have seen in the past many people asking others what they are doing to reduce their carbon impact and those questions are unanswered.

I'm one of those on the fence ...I do believe that the way we treat our planet is awful (reminds me of that old commercial where the Indian is looking at a stream with a tear running down his face as he looks at the debris in a river/creek). I know that they way that we treat mother earth is horrible and I do what I can to make it better

1. Used to live 38 miles from my office and made the move to now be six miles away from the office
2. Recycle plastic
3. Leave my cans where there is a disabled man that picks them up to turn in to cash
4. Consolodate trips
5. Walk to the store for small trips with items that I can handle carrying
6. Donate clothes and food.
7. Monitor my electric

What more can we do?

I never see more suggestions?
Everyone seems like they want to beat "big oil" but its what we have right now and I thinkg that we should all join together to lessen the amount of usage. I know that alternatives are being worked on and once they become price comprable I will be looking to change.

Maybe those that are total believers can list out what they are doing or what others can be doing to reduce our footbprints
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The admins need to take control of this place. They have to hand down some bans. Not perma-bans, but 24-48 ones, just to send a message that the debates here need to be more civilized. And that goes for both the supporters and deniers of AGW, because some members of both sides are completely disrespectful. I like the debates, and I think they should continue, but they need to be toned down a little and the only way that happens is if admin takes control.


I agree..but do they have the nad's to do it?
We shall see..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
The denial lobby has tried to paint climate science as the home of irrational fear. It certainly is possible to get carried away with most anything. One only has to look at the posts about HAARP and contrails on the blog to see that, but look again and ask yourself where is the greatest ambition? Who has the greatest motivation "to lie, to cheat, to steal, to hurt others, to sacrifice things of real value" as Dan Gilbert puts it. Where is the "passionate ardour which drives us to violate the rules either of prudence or of justice" as Adam Smith describes it. Who has spent hundreds (seems that way) of millions of dollars on a public relations campaign of denial?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5915
Quoting Allan012:


Pffft... GW is just bogus science used for monetary grants...


Of course it is. Just like those weather making machines the insurance industry is using to hammer the east coast with hurricanes so they can raise their rates and make billions! MAUAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Oh darn, my tinfoil hat came loose again! Their mind control beams are getting in! Quick, I must go bath in juice of fresh Guatamalen Papaya to rejuvenate my brain cells from the eletromagnetic damage!

Sssssshhhhhhh! Did you hear that? I think I have a radio in my fingernail! Or it could be aliens. They're probably in it with the insurance companies to pillage our planet of it's resources and our precious bodily fluids!

All hail the Mackrel, King of the Fish!
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Invest 25



Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
.
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Quoting Allan012:


Pffft... GW is just bogus science used for monetary grants...


Of course it is. Just like those weather making machines the insurance industry is using to hammer the east coast with hurricanes so they can raise their rates and make billions! MAUAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Oh darn, my tinfoil hat came loose again! Their mind control beams are getting in! Quick, I must go bath in juice of fresh Guatamalen Papaya to rejuvenate my brain cells from the eletromagnetic damage!

Sssssshhhhhhh! Did you hear that? I think I have a radio in my fingernail! Or it could be aliens. They're probably in it with the insurance companies to pillage our planet of it's resources and our precious bodily fluids!

All hail the Mackrel, King of the Fish!
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Quoting pcola57:
Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
Stay on topic.
No monomania.
No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.
Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.
No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.
No spamming.
No spamming.
Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.
Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

Tips

Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.

The admins need to take control of this place. They have to hand down some bans. Not perma-bans, but 24-48 ones, just to send a message that the debates here need to be more civilized. And that goes for both the supporters and deniers of AGW, because some members of both sides are completely disrespectful. I like the debates, and I think they should continue, but they need to be toned down a little and the only way that happens is if admin takes control.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
Rules of The Road..
Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.
Stay on topic.
No monomania.
No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.
Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.
No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.
No spamming.
No spamming.
Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.
Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.

Tips

Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
Quoting overwash12:
No,I have to disagree. However I do appreciate the cat 5 analogy,that was classic! lol


Disagree with what?

Don't take my word for it. Look it up. Paleoclimate studies show that regular warming and cooling intervals happen as a result of orbital variations and take thousands of years.

The other, sudden, rapid changes are a result of a cataclysmic event or sudden rapid feedbacks that usually result in some form of ELE since life can't adapt fast enough to deal with the climate shifts.

Feel free to disagree of course, but I think I stick with the scientific studies.
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Quoting txjac:


I'm not totally defending the Daily Mail ..its a mixture of good, true info and some that is sensationaist ...one just has to read it all in order to hear both sides and make a decision


Never said you were defending or not. I was just posting the response by the Met office to that actual article basically debunking David Rose's article. This is one case where The Daily Mail misinformed and or left out information.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Looks like another argument blog. Oh well. Ill be back in a few days when the next blog is posted. But I'll leave you with this.


Supercell storm to strike at weekend

A POTENTIALLY devastating form of thunderstorm, which can create tornadoes, threatens northern NSW on the weekend.

"Supercell thunderstorms are likely to produce severe weather," Tom Saunders, Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Channel said this morning.

"Supercell thunderstorms are likely across north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland this weekend and have the potential to cause flash flooding, damaging winds and large hail,'' Mr Saunders said.

Supercells are the most dangerous type of storm and develop where wind shear is present through a very unstable atmosphere.

"The wind shear leads to rotation within the storm and a longer lifespan.

"Supercells often cause very heavy rain and flash flooding, large hail, damaging winds gusts and occasionally tornadoes.
The main inhibitors for storm development will be cloud through the morning, which prevents air rising from the surface and onshore winds which keep temperatures down and reduce instability.

The more intense thunderstorms this weekend have the potential to cause around 50mm of rain but most of north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland should receive at least 20mm.''

He said the chance of severe storms will reduce by Monday as the trough moves offshore.

For more info. Like this page on Facebook.


'Tis the season though, right?

November is the Southern Hemisphere equivalent to May, anyway.
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162. txjac
Quoting Naga5000:


Here is the blog from UK Met about that daily mail article. Link It isn't very kind.


I'm not totally defending the Daily Mail ..its a mixture of good, true info and some that is sensationalist ...one just has to read it all in order to hear both sides and make a decision
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Good weather in general for PR on Friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
959 PM AST THU NOV 15 2012

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE USVI TONIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR HAS SHOWN PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS EMBEDDED ON THE TRADES...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS.
A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED.
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF DRIER AREA
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR BETWEEN
16/17-21Z. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

MARINE UPDATE...BUOYS 41044 ABOUT 500 NM NORTHEAST OF PR MEASURED
A NORTHEAST SWELL OF 8-10 FEET AT 11 SECONDS. USING THE SWELL DECAY
CALCULATOR...SEAS OF 6-7 FEET WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AMZ710 UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13935
Quoting ncstorm:


how is my post disrespectful?..the last blog stayed up how long?..what is mostly in the contents of those so called temperature/climate change/AGW blogs..ARGUMENTS AND NO COMPROMISE!! lets even use some metrics here..count the blogs with just solely content of tropical weather vs climate change and then build an algorithm showing posts complaining about climate change in each of the blogs..guess which topic of blog will come out on top with complaints about AGW/climate change bloggers..its pretty clear who is being disrespectful BUT yet WU has seen an increase in the climate change blogs even adding a dynamite stick rule about discussing politics..I only call it like I see it..

still raining here in NC..looks to stick around for a while..


Alright, I have a bone to pick here.

Almost every time I see that the topic even remotely veers toward global climate change, you are on here complaining about it. Very frequently, of late, you have been questioning Doctor Master's integrity in posting his blogs, as you have today. You constantly howl at and hound people who point out the facts about climate, calling them alarmists and questioning their good faith, and complaining about their "tone" while never once addressing the people who childishly pester and whine like the guy upthread who asked the same irrelevant question three times just to get a rise out of people - because, as it turns out, they have leanings similar to you.

This isn't just a habit of yours about global climate change. During Hurricane Sandy, you constantly claimed that the people posting about what the NHC had predicted or who were asking about how bad it is were "alarmists" and that it wouldn't be as bad as predicted, and you complained about the "hype." You were one of only a handful doing that, and you were the biggest "name." As it turned out - shocker of shockers - the scientists were right and it was as bad as they said it would be, or worse, and lo and behold, over a hundred Americans died along with the death toll in the Caribbean that had already been racked up. In the following days you never apologized for your mistreatment of the people conveying or making accurate predictions, you never criticized the people making the same foolish statements as you did, and you've never been held to account for it.

So now, here you are in an analogous situation, questioning the good faith of people accurately conveying the scientific consensus on climate change, questioning the good faith of the person who runs the site, and once again getting away with it. It's appalling. I don't post often; I prefer to watch and listen and learn as I have for the last seven years. But I can't stand this.
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Quoting txjac:


The Daily Mail doesnt get everything wrong ...first place that I heard about Iran shooting at our drone, it was also the first place that I read about things being done (had some wine so I cant remember what?) about slowing or reversing AGW. I actually emailed it to Nea to ask about it and he said he had heard about it too ...and not just the Daily Mail.

People have to read all sides of issues and not just rely on the side that talks about the way that they feel.


Here is the blog from UK Met about that daily mail article. Link It isn't very kind.
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Looks like another argument blog. Oh well. Ill be back in a few days when the next blog is posted. But I'll leave you with this.


Supercell storm to strike at weekend

A POTENTIALLY devastating form of thunderstorm, which can create tornadoes, threatens northern NSW on the weekend.

"Supercell thunderstorms are likely to produce severe weather," Tom Saunders, Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Channel said this morning.

"Supercell thunderstorms are likely across north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland this weekend and have the potential to cause flash flooding, damaging winds and large hail,'' Mr Saunders said.

Supercells are the most dangerous type of storm and develop where wind shear is present through a very unstable atmosphere.

"The wind shear leads to rotation within the storm and a longer lifespan.

"Supercells often cause very heavy rain and flash flooding, large hail, damaging winds gusts and occasionally tornadoes.
The main inhibitors for storm development will be cloud through the morning, which prevents air rising from the surface and onshore winds which keep temperatures down and reduce instability.

The more intense thunderstorms this weekend have the potential to cause around 50mm of rain but most of north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland should receive at least 20mm.''

He said the chance of severe storms will reduce by Monday as the trough moves offshore.

For more info. Like this page on Facebook.
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Quoting luvtogolf:


"The heating we're seeing now is happening in the blink of an eye by comparison".

So you have scientific proof that in no time before in the history of our planet that it has never warmed this fast over a blink of an eye timeframe?


I never said the Earth's climate has never rapidly changed. When it does (as a result of an asteroid impact, supervolcanoe eruptions, etc.), it is usually followed by an ELE (Extinction Level Event). If conditions change faster than life can adapt, it dies.

Look up paleoclimate or paleoclimatology. There's quite a bit of information on this subject.

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So instead of posting more graphs of the same data and repeating the same litany of scientific facts to try to persuade people wavering between denial and reality, I appeal to our sense of self respect.

Adam Smith pointed out the problem almost 250 years ago. Dan Gilbert describes the issue in light of recent research on human behavior. We are largely ignorant of the trap of overestimating the difference between one circumstance and another. We shrink back in fear and inaction. Politicians play to the mood of fear and passivity. And we lose.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5915

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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