Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Thanks

Repost from the previous blog, for informational purposes.

Looking at the latest models, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hurricane season is probably over. No models show any development, and the GFS has dropped development through 384 hours, which puts us in December.

That would put the seasonal stats at
19-10-1, with >55 billion dollars in damages, mostly from Sandy and some from Isaac.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season is the 3rd most active hurricane season ever recorded, tied with last year, 2011, 2010, 1995, and 1887. This is the only time in recorded history that there have been three consecutive seasons with more than 16 named storms. This operates under the assumption that there will be no more named storms this season, or named storms declared in the post season.

This season began very early and was unusual from the start, with for the first time since 1908 we saw two storms develop before June, and even more unusual with the fact that we were at Debby by June. However, no storms developed in July. The assumption was at the beginning of August that we would only have 12 named storms this year at least, this turned out to be completely wrong.

Odds are that Hurricane Sandy will probably be upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, and possibly even Hurricane Gordon, so I will hold off on commenting on the low amount of major hurricanes compared to seasonal activity. It is slightly possible that Beryl will be upgraded to a hurricane upon landfall in Florida, though there is little evidence to do so other than some high SFMR reports.

That would put the seasonal total more like 19-10-3 with two additional major hurricanes.

The 'it only takes one' factor came into play this year with devastating results. Hurricane Sandy became the 2nd most destructive hurricane to ever hit the United States with over 50 billion dollars in damages, well over Ike and Andrew's totals.

The names to be retired this year is Sandy, and probably Isaac (2 billion dollars in damages to Louisiana).

We have only 15 days left in the season, so here's to a peaceful post-season after the season ends, and to a wonderful Thanksgiving and Christmas! It was fun blogging with you all this season.

Here's to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I hope everyone comes back to sort through the typical chaos and trolls, false names, JFV, heated arguments about Global Warming, and yes more long rants from me, because watching hurricanes develop is worth it!

I thought NC cut off funding for the rebuilding of Highway 12 after Irene last year? I remember watching Bev Purdue on the news when I was living down in Wilmington. Maybe the idea lacked support.

I suspect to see this pattern continue throughout the winter Doc.Which is why I'm calling for about a much more higher chance of snow n December.All we need now is to borrow some of that Canadian air and we're good.

Looks like highway 12 is in bad shape.

Thank you Dr. Masters

thanks doc!

luvtogolf
Bastardi comment...

"Anthropogenic global warming activists claim that all extreme weather events are somehow related to global warming, which has been re-termed climate change since global temperatures are no longer warming. The FACT remains that global tropical activity, which can be measured using the ACE Index (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), is near record lows according to peer-reviewed research and even the most recent UN IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX 2012)."



Take the above statement from Basterdi to show that he is incorrectly correlating two pieces of information here. I am assuming that the ACE does not take into account all transferred heat processes within the earths system. Cyclones are just one component of that. Global ACE output is only calculated from Tropical Systems ONLY or rare hybrids! It does not take into account the massive mid latitude storms that batter Alaska, the Northeast, and Europe.

Or a winter storm like this in 2006.



All low pressure systems release heat, not just tropical ones.

Look here at where the anomalies are showing up in the Ocean Temperatures. I am just using a September analog to show a point, every month anomalies change from place to place, but the the most overwhelming signal where I see warming taking place is not in tropical origins but rather the mid latitude and poles. Siberia, the Arctic, and Northern Europe all between 3 and 5 degrees Celsius where most tropical areas see between 1 and 1.5 degree Celsius at the most. Think about where we have been seeing the strange weather.



It's been in and around the Northern Jet Stream where Extra Tropical processes I think have been intensified not the tropical ones. And that is just sitting back and looking at the big picture. Just my humble opinion.

Now think how Sandy transitioned to an extra tropical storm and what anomalies that were present that would have gave her an extra boost?

Also take note where most of industrialized centers are located on this planet and correlate that to where you see the warming... It's really quit obvious to make at least a minor correlation between the two.

Thanks Doc.

HiILwthrfan, it does take a lot more energy to warm the tropics than the Mid Atlantic or North Atlantic waters. It's when the tropical waters stert to really warm besides ElNino that we should take notice same goes for the atmosphere. Enough of the climate change B/S now back to weather on this new blog.

#8 No wonder he fits in at BMN.

Thank you Dr. Masters for the update,
Seems year after year Hwy. 12 gets hammered..
You would think engineering something better would have been done before now if they wanted to keep this Hwy. open to the Outer Banks..
I've lived in the "Carolinas" before and (to their credit) their not the sort of people who give up easily..

Thanks once again for the update Dr. Masters

When you have such egregious statements coming out as quotedin #8, I want TWC to take the high road all the more, which is why the naming of some winter storms is so disappointing.

I am curious as to whether anyone has either, heard of or, seen indications that there may be a re-assessment of Building Codes for certain NJ/NY locations, in light of Sandy damages?

Long way out, but a sign that the troughs will continue for the east.

Quoting SSideBrac:
I am curious as to whether anyone has either,heard or, seen indications that there may be a re-assessment of Building Codes for certain NJ/NY locations?

Very good question IMO..
Not sure where you would look for that info unless in some State Gov. body of law..

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Repost from the previous blog, for informational purposes.

Looking at the latest models, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hurricane season is probably over. No models show any development, and the GFS has dropped development through 384 hours, which puts us in December.

That would put the seasonal stats at
19-10-1, with >55 billion dollars in damages, mostly from Sandy and some from Isaac.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season is the 3rd most active hurricane season ever recorded, tied with last year, 2011, 2010, 1995, and 1887. This is the only time in recorded history that there have been three consecutive seasons with more than 16 named storms. This operates under the assumption that there will be no more named storms this season, or named storms declared in the post season.

This season began very early and was unusual from the start, with for the first time since 1908 we saw two storms develop before June, and even more unusual with the fact that we were at Debby by June. However, no storms developed in July. The assumption was at the beginning of August that we would only have 12 named storms this year at least, this turned out to be completely wrong.

Odds are that Hurricane Sandy will probably be upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, and possibly even Hurricane Gordon, so I will hold off on commenting on the low amount of major hurricanes compared to seasonal activity. It is slightly possible that Beryl will be upgraded to a hurricane upon landfall in Florida, though there is little evidence to do so other than some high SFMR reports.

That would put the seasonal total more like 19-10-3 with two additional major hurricanes.

The 'it only takes one' factor came into play this year with devastating results. Hurricane Sandy became the 2nd most destructive hurricane to ever hit the United States with over 50 billion dollars in damages, well over Ike and Andrew's totals.

The names to be retired this year is Sandy, and probably Isaac (2 billion dollars in damages to Louisiana).

We have only 15 days left in the season, so here's to a peaceful post-season after the season ends, and to a wonderful Thanksgiving and Christmas! It was fun blogging with you all this season.

Here's to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I hope everyone comes back to sort through the typical chaos and trolls, false names, JFV, heated arguments about Global Warming, and yes more long rants from me, because watching hurricanes develop is worth it!

Thanks for the interesting summary, Teddy. It appears this will be the seventh year in a row without a major hurricane making landfall(as a major) in the CONUS. Where does that stand in the record books?

Quoting sar2401:

Thanks for the interesting summary, Teddy. It appears this will be the seventh year in a row without a major hurricane making landfall(as a major) in the CONUS. Where does that stand in the record books?

Unheard of, but given the destruction we've seen with Ike and Sandy, it's clear the idea that a major hurricane hitting the United States instantly makes them more significant than any other hurricane needs to be done away with, stat. Sandy rated a 5.8/6.0 on the destructive potential scale, more than most major hurricanes do and the devastation in her wake is proof of that.

The SSHS needs to be re-defined significantly.

Quoting SSideBrac:
I am curious as to whether anyone has either, heard of or, seen indications that there may be a re-assessment of Building Codes for certain NJ/NY locations, in light of Sandy damages?

I'm sure there will be both building code and zoning changes. It's only after major disasters like Sandy that there's enough public and commercial support to make major changes in such things.

Quoting bappit:
When you have such egregious statements coming out as quotedin #8, I want TWC to take the high road all the more, which is why the naming of some winter storms is so disappointing.

Are you referring to who I quoted or to what I stated. I didn't intend to bring disrespect to Bastardi or to a general reader. If I am incorrect in something I stated please note it, I am not a Meteroligist or Climatologist nor do I try to pretend to be. I realize I did a LOT of generalizing when using a select month to show a point and that is a dangerous thing to do in science sometimes. But even we you look month to month the anomalies for the most part are staying in the higher latitudes are they not?

Quoting sar2401:

I'm sure there will be both building code and zoning changes. It's only after major disasters like Sandy that there's enough public and commercial support to make major changes in such things.

I do hope there are serious changes in the building codes there, but I'd like to see it before i believe it.

Quoting SSideBrac:
I am curious as to whether anyone has either, heard of or, seen indications that there may be a re-assessment of Building Codes for certain NJ/NY locations, in light of Sandy damages?

I think forward-looking responses to a disaster that just happened requires a previous disaster to plant the seed. One disaster lays the foundation for the response to the next one. Then people can come out early and say, "See?"

I suspect they're still in shock and awe. Re-assessments can happen, but I doubt they have a lot of political energy for it at the moment. I hope people are out there collecting data, though.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Unheard of, but given the destruction we've seen with Ike and Sandy, it's clear the idea that a major hurricane hitting the United States instantly makes them more significant than any other hurricane needs to be done away with, stat. Sandy rated a 5.8/6.0 on the destructive potential scale, more than most major hurricanes do and the devastating in her wake is proof of that. The scale needs to be re-defined significantly.

Point taken, although the NHC seems to totally resistant to changes in the current system. It seems to me that changes need to made to not only consider destructive potential but likely landfall area. If Sandy had made landfall further south, it still would have been a destructive storm, but the damage, in dollars and human lives, would have been far less than making landfall in New Jersey.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
402 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

...OVERWASH ON NC HIGHWAY 12 THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.THE COMBINATION OF A PROLONGED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND... A
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLE...AND SIGNIFICANT DUNE EROSION IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WILL PRODUCE OCEAN OVERWASH ALONG NC HIGHWAY
12 A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE FURTHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
FURTHER EXACERBATING THE PROBLEM.

NCZ103-152115-
/O.EXT.KMHX.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121120T0100Z/
OUTER BANKS DARE-
402 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATION...NC 12 ALONG THE OUTER BANKS FROM CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR OVERWASH.

* TIMING...A FEW HOURS AROUND TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

* IMPACTS...FLOODING OVER ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
715 PM EST WED NOV 14 2012

FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-151500-
/O.EXP.KJAX.RP.S.0023.000000T0000Z-121115T0000Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.CF.Y.0006.121115T1100Z-121115T1700Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
715 PM EST WED NOV 14 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST
THURSDAY...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK HAS EXPIRED...

* COASTAL FLOODING...TIDES WILL REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AROUND THE TIME OF THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
ABOUT ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

* TIMING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR IN ST. SIMONS ISLAND
AROUND 850 AM...IN MAYPORT AROUND 918 AM...AND IN FERNANDINA
BEACH AROUND 933 AM.

* IMPACTS...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
THURSDAY MORNING MAY LEAD TO A FEW ROAD CLOSURES. IN
ADDITION...AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
247 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-151600-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0024.121115T1100Z-121115T1600Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
247 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM
EST THIS MORNING...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...AND
ALONG THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE ON THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT
OCCURS BETWEEN 700 AM AND 930 AM. HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON THE BAY
BAYS...RARITAN BAY AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY LATER THAN THE
HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

* SEAS...3 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN. WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROAD
CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED...LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$

stormy east coast for sure..............

Quoting pcola57:


Very good question IMO..
Not sure where you would look for that info unless in some State Gov. body of law..

I will start looking there but often takes a long time to get "out to the public" - was more curious on any press/media reports.

The "downside" of such Building Code enhancements is the expense - people whose properties need complete rebuild are almost inevitably (and sadly) going to find that they end up in the "underinsured" category.

Additionally, I would certainly hope that NYC Subway (whatever they are called) are seriously looking at more effective flood barrier protection/isolation of vulnerable locations. I realise that this will be a massive and expensive project over many years but they already have a "sequence of flood events/danger levels" to initiate a meaningful pilot project. NYC area was first settled by the Dutch - maybe they have the experts to assist as a lot of them live below sea level right now and, are amongst the world's foremost exponents of major flood barriers and protection - BTW, I am neither, from the NL nor, represent a flood barrier company.

Quoting hydrus:
Long way out, but a sign that the troughs will continue for the east.

My heavy winter coat is dusty since it hasn't been in use for a while now.Going to take them to the dry cleaners soon though.I've been predicting our winter will be similar to the 02-03 winter(Yes I know very ironic).That year D.C got over 40 inches of snow.That has yet to be seen if that will occur this winter.May I add that the winter before that we only had 'round about 3 inches in total.

Quoting sar2401:

Thanks for the interesting summary, Teddy. It appears this will be the seventh year in a row without a major hurricane making landfall(as a major) in the CONUS. Where does that stand in the record books?

I like CyberMan Teddy's post, too, and the stats and trends can make interesting discussion, but (here I go) ....

I sure wish that term "major hurricane" would go visit Jimmy Hoffa. We see what just happened with Sandy and the lives lost. We need people to respond to warnings (however they are phrased). We don't need an arbitrary label like "major hurricane" being talked about as if it were what is really important.

there IS a low out there off the carolina's

Quoting bappit:

I think forward-looking responses to a disaster that just happened requires a previous disaster to plant the seed. One disaster lays the foundation for the response to the next one. Then people can come out early and say, "See?"

I suspect they're still in shock and awe. Re-assessments can happen, but I doubt they have a lot of political energy for it at the moment. I hope people are out there collecting data, though.

Take your point and I DO know that "shock and awe" feeling - but, for their sake, I would just hate to see a "Lessons Learned" report X years down line repeating the same "Lessons Learned" observations/findings.

Quoting SSideBrac:


Take your point and I DO know that "shock and awe" feeling - but, for their sake, I would just hate to see a "Lessons Learned" report X years down line repeating the same "Lessons Learned" observations/findings.

Sure thing. Asking questions like yours is a way to get over the awe and helplessness.

Thanks, doc.

Now will someone wake the newly re-elected administration up to the fact that ExxonMobil supports the idea of a Carbon Tax.

I would expect that they would prefer to keep it small and allow them to take advantage of all their investments in natural gas compared to coal. Natural gas produces a lot less CO2 per unit of power than coal.

But there is nothing in the books that says Obama and team cannot use this opening to forge a great alliance between the natural gas producers and environmentalists to favor that product as the bridge to renewable power sources. A carbon tax will, if written correctly, cost all fossil fuel producers at some level.

The real trick is to give the money back to the people as a national dividend so they can learn to make money by using less. If we can make that leap the rest of the journey to a sustainable future may actually be doable.

12Z GFS at 48 Hours.............

2. Christopher C. Burt, Weather Historian
4:48 AM GMT on November 15, 2012

Quoting catman306:
Do you keep statistics for nor'easters on the number and severity, year by year?



Afraid not. But that WOULD make for an interesting database.


Does anyone else keep such a data base on nor'easters?

7-day for the Tampa Bay area......................

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...

CTZ009-010-NYZ071-073-078-176-177-151800-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0022.121115T1500Z-121115T1800Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
422 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

......MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND SHORELINE

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...AROUND HALF A FOOT.

* TIMING...AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE 11 AM TO NOON EST.

* IMPACTS...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

$$

Regarding post 34.

Don't take the bait!

Quoting SSideBrac:


I will start looking there but often takes a long time to get "out to the public" - was more curious on any press/media reports.

The "downside" of such Building Code enhancements is the expense - people whose properties need complete rebuild are almost inevitably (and sadly) going to find that they end up in the "underinsured" category.

Additionally, I would certainly hope that NYC Subway (whatever they are called) are seriously looking at more effective flood barrier protection/isolation of vulnerable locations. I realise that this will be a massive and expensive project over many years but they already have a "sequence of flood events/danger levels" to initiate a meaningful pilot project. NYC area was first settled by the Dutch - maybe they have the experts to assist as a lot of them live below sea level right now and, are amongst the world's foremost exponents of major flood barriers and protection - BTW, I am niether, from the NL nor, represent a flood barrier company.

It was just a suggestion on my part as thats where it will be put into law IMO..
A call to action on this is totally called for as you brought up..
Too many lives were lost (1 is too many IMO) and the "I didn't know it would be this bad" crowd disgust me..
They know what we go through here on the GOM and they have their Nor'easter's as a standard as well..
Although Sandy was a phenom,those in charge should have some mud in their eye's as well..
Not saying all is perfect,just saying what happened and it's severity should have been marginalized..

Quoting TomballTXPride:

Gonna be a rough December and early January for you, Washi. And what happened to Rainy?

Sorry had to get rid of her.

Quoting TomballTXPride:
I suppose it's possible that Sandy's extraordinarily large size was merely just a "freak of nature". By that same token, of course, I also suppose this summer's record low Arctic sea ice was a "freak of nature". And the current record low global ice area is a "freak of nature". And the fact that this year has been the warmest ever recorded in the U.S. was a "freak of nature". And last year's monstrous tornado outbreaks...the three largest ever in the U.S. were just "freaks of nature". And the bizarre Russian heat wave of 2010 (the deepest in at least 1,000 years) was a "freak of nature". And this summer's Greenland melt was a "freak of nature". And this past spring's very anomalous U.S. heat wave was a "freak of nature". And the fact that 2010 was the wettest year ever for the planet was a "freak of nature". And the fact that four of Philadelphia's ten largest snowfalls ever took place between December 2009 and January 2011 was a "freak of nature". And the largest-ever wildfires for New Mexico and Arizona that occurred over the past two summers were just "freaks of nature". And last year's deepest-ever drought in Mexico was a "freak of nature". And this year's TS Beryl, the strongest tropical cyclone to ever make landfall in the U.S. before the official start of hurricane season, was a "freak of nature". And last year's unprecedented rainfall in Columbia (that nation's heaviest ever) was but a "freak of nature". And the formation of Cat 4 EPac Hurricane Kenneth in November, by far the strongest ever in that region so late in the year, was a "freak of nature". And the January, 2010, low pressure system in the U.S. Southwest, the most powerful one on record, was a "freak of nature"...

And so on. My, but that's a lot of freaks. In fact, that's more freaks than you'd find on a 19th-century circus midway. And one can't help but wonder what could possibly be making them occur. Some claim it's just coincidence, but I'm not so sure...

Great post.

Too many tosses coming up "heads". That's a loaded nickel.