Nor'easter next week primarily a threat to North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on November 15, 2012

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A complex series of low pressure systems will affect the U.S. coast near North Carolina through early next week, and a powerful Nor'easter is expected to develop off the North Carolina coast on Monday, then move northeastwards out to sea. The storm will be too far from coastal areas of New Jersey and New York hard-hit by Sandy to cause more than minor coastal flooding, thankfully. However, high winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding are expected to affect the coast of North Carolina beginning on Saturday, with the peak winds and greatest coastal flooding likely to occur on Sunday and Monday. Minor to moderate flooding will occur along much of the Northeast North Carolina coast, and coastal Highway 12 that connects the Outer Banks to the mainland will probably be cut. Hurricane Sandy pummeled the Outer Banks of North Carolina in late October, causing $13 million in damage. Sandy weakened or wiped out the protective dunes along a long section of coast, and caused significant damage to coastal Highway 12. As a result, all it takes is a high tide to cause overwash on this vital artery. The road was closed on Tuesday due to overwash during the high tide cycles, and requires a 4-wheel-drive vehicle to navigate it due to the extensive damage it has suffered over the past two weeks. Residents of the Outer Banks must take a 2-hour ferry ride to get to the mainland when Highway 12 is cut.


Figure 1. Coastal Highway 12 in North Carolina, which connects the Outer Banks to the mainland, as seen at 5:43 pm EST on Tuesday, November 13, 2012, near Rodanthe. Hurricane Sandy wiped out most of the protective dunes along the coast, allowing the ocean to directly pound the road during high tide. Image credit: North Carolina DOT.

All quiet in the Atlantic
The Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss. None of the reliable computer models is predicting formation of a tropical cyclone during the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters

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I am sure people along the East Coast are again anxious about property destruction as a result of storms, and also blackouts. I am really shocked at the astronomical figures displayed of the value of the loss of property this year (so far). I am wondering why in the world does someone not put pressure on the electricity companies to bury their cables. I live in Illinois, and we have had our full share of storms and winds, just as high, but you never hear about it. That's because it never makes the news. That's because our cables are buried, and therefore we have not lost power longer than 2 hours since I've lived here. Again that's because our cables are buried, not hanging out there waiting for a big wind to yank them down, like I see in this photo. Considering the astronomical loss figures, which are contributed to by the extensive loss of power these people have had, wouldn't it be more economical in the long run? I know ComEd has stated that they can't afford the cost of burying the cables, but in long run, I can't see anything more economical.
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Quoting pcola57:


Very good question IMO..
Not sure where you would look for that info unless in some State Gov. body of law..


I googled "improved building codes after sandy", got this (amongst others):


New York City’s building codes must be revised to ensure structures can cope with future major storm events, engineers based in the city said this week.

They stressed the need to revise the codes to prevent widespread damage to buildings following a major storm, as happened during Hurricane Sandy.

“Change will only be through legislation,” said consultant WSP Flack & Kurtz executive vice president Gary Pomerantz.

“It will have resistance as it will cost building owners money.”


http://www.nce.co.uk/news/super-storm-sandy-highl ights-need-for-revised-building-codes/8638554.arti cle?blocktitle=Exclusive-news-from-NCE-magazine&co ntentID=204
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Quoting TomballTXPride:



Destructive storm potential would be a much more production and accurate assessment upon evaluating storms and alerting the public.

I would personally love to see a system that would not only incorporate wind speed and surge potential, but also wind field radii of a system that outline both Tropical Storm force winds and Hurricane force winds. And of course the wind field radii of the storm would directly correlate into the storm surge potential.

Something needs to be done. We need a major overhaul, revision, modification, upgrade of the existing Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane Ike, Irene, and Sandy are clear recent examples of why this should be done.



For that application, in addition to " wind speed and surge potential, but also wind field radii of a system ", may consider also including two other numbers.... People per square kilometer, and average degree of willful ignorance concerning necessity of evacuation. THese last two have to be real components of any such calculation, imo.
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Quoting percylives:


Great post.

Too many tosses coming up "heads". That's a loaded nickel.


If I could draw the cartoon:

Two old fogey professorial types sitting in overstuffed club chairs, one on the left labeled "Professor Statistics" and the one on the right labeled "Professor Met" and the one on the left says to his friend on the right "I say, Sir! ...But what are all these SD: Z>3 events of yours doing under the center of my bell curve...???"
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Unheard of, but given the destruction we've seen with Ike and Sandy, it's clear the idea that a major hurricane hitting the United States instantly makes them more significant than any other hurricane needs to be done away with, stat. Sandy rated a 5.8/6.0 on the destructive potential scale, more than most major hurricanes do and the devastation in her wake is proof of that.

The SSHS needs to be re-defined significantly.


Agreed. Proof was in the pudding with Sandy and Isaac. Guess this just proves the point that it doesn't take a CAT 5 to cause major damage when the conditions setup right. My mantra is that if you live in hurricane country have a plan and be prepared. This means anyone from Brownsville, TX to Bangor, ME and the coastline that follows can be in the crosshairs of tropical storm/hurricane nasty.
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2007 was the previous record summer low ice year for arctic sea ice. This is how it compares to November this year.

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75. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
WECT TV 6 News

We are getting reports of some minor coastal flooding in: Ocean Isle, Southport, Wrightsville Beach, and Belville. The coastal flood advisory expires at noon as we move towards low tide. Here is an example of the high water on 4th street in Ocean Isle Beach.

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Quoting TomballTXPride:



Destructive storm potential would be a much more production and accurate assessment upon evaluating storms and alerting the public.

I would personally love to see a system that would not only incorporate wind speed and surge potential, but also wind field radii of a system that outline both Tropical Storm force winds and Hurricane force winds. And of course the wind field radii of the storm would directly correlate into the storm surge potential.

Something needs to be done. We need a major overhaul, revision, modification, upgrade of the existing Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane Ike, Irene, and Sandy are clear recent examples of why this should be done.




I'm with you..the public needs something that is easily identifible...mabye a DOOM INDEX LOL
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Quoting TomballTXPride:



Destructive storm potential would be a much more production and accurate assessment upon evaluating storms and alerting the public.

I would personally love to see a system that would not only incorporate wind speed and surge potential, but also wind field radii of a system that outline both Tropical Storm force winds and Hurricane force winds. And of course the wind field radii of the storm would directly correlate into the storm surge potential.

Something needs to be done. We need a major overhaul, revision, modification, upgrade of the existing Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane Ike, Irene, and Sandy are clear recent examples of why this should be done.



Agreed, but many just think it's a bunch of media hype. I was standing on line in a store the day before Sandy hit, and the guy in front of me said it would be "a big nothing, just a little wind and rain." Well, I hope he didn't live in a flood zone. I also know a woman who didn't evacuate her home as she was told. Flood waters rose so fast in her home that she thought she was going to drown. She ended up running out of her home in the flood waters to get to her car, which she parked on higher ground. I mean c'mon! What happens when a Cat 2 or 3 hits? Hopefully Sandy will be the wake-up call everyone needed.
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thirty years ago arctic ice

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Thanks Dr. Masters! Hopefully the NE doesn't get anything bad.
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Ideas on Protecting New York Float to the Surface
Link

Link

Cuomo also raised the issue of more frequent extreme weather and studying what measures are needed to better protect New York's low-lying coastal areas.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50444
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Repost from the previous blog, for informational purposes.

Looking at the latest models, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hurricane season is probably over. No models show any development, and the GFS has dropped development through 384 hours, which puts us in December.

That would put the seasonal stats at
19-10-1, with >55 billion dollars in damages, mostly from Sandy and some from Isaac.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season is the 3rd most active hurricane season ever recorded, tied with last year, 2011, 2010, 1995, and 1887. This is the only time in recorded history that there have been three consecutive seasons with more than 16 named storms. This operates under the assumption that there will be no more named storms this season, or named storms declared in the post season.

This season began very early and was unusual from the start, with for the first time since 1908 we saw two storms develop before June, and even more unusual with the fact that we were at Debby by June. However, no storms developed in July. The assumption was at the beginning of August that we would only have 12 named storms this year at least, this turned out to be completely wrong.

Odds are that Hurricane Sandy will probably be upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, and possibly even Hurricane Gordon, so I will hold off on commenting on the low amount of major hurricanes compared to seasonal activity. It is slightly possible that Beryl will be upgraded to a hurricane upon landfall in Florida, though there is little evidence to do so other than some high SFMR reports.

That would put the seasonal total more like 19-10-3 with two additional major hurricanes.

The 'it only takes one' factor came into play this year with devastating results. Hurricane Sandy became the 2nd most destructive hurricane to ever hit the United States with over 50 billion dollars in damages, well over Ike and Andrew's totals.

The names to be retired this year is Sandy, and probably Isaac (2 billion dollars in damages to Louisiana).

We have only 15 days left in the season, so here's to a peaceful post-season after the season ends, and to a wonderful Thanksgiving and Christmas! It was fun blogging with you all this season.

Here's to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I hope everyone comes back to sort through the typical chaos and trolls, false names, JFV, heated arguments about Global Warming, and yes more long rants from me, because watching hurricanes develop is worth it!


What I find interesting is that most atmospheric conditions would have shown us to be in an El Nino situation and yet an El Nino never really developed. I would like to see an explanation for this.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Unheard of, but given the destruction we've seen with Ike and Sandy, it's clear the idea that a major hurricane hitting the United States instantly makes them more significant than any other hurricane needs to be done away with, stat. Sandy rated a 5.8/6.0 on the destructive potential scale, more than most major hurricanes do and the devastation in her wake is proof of that.

The SSHS needs to be re-defined significantly.


IMHO, I think they should rate Hurricanes (at least, when it comes to warning the public) with, and only with, the destructive potential scale. Sandy has shown that it is obvious that a weak Category 1 storm can wreak havoc on an area just as much as a major hurricane. The only thing the public needs to know is how destructive it will be, not its winds or its pressure or its size. So, why not use, well, the destructive potential scale itself as a means to warn the public. It would be much more representative and down to the point.
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this cam is closer to jedkins but same overcast is the same by me,now sun at all this morning here
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Ha. Thnx. It's my youngest daughter favorite guitar video game design. Don't know though...I should probably download like a hurricane like other do here to make it more weather related!! :)


I guess maybe so . I guess it shows your, a storm enthusiast, but I like the more unique ones .
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Rain for the rest of the week..just think if this pattern sticks around till March..we would see a lot of snow..



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Good Morning/Afternoon

There have already been reports of flooding as far north in NC from Hwy 12 to down here in Carolina Beach, NC from the low pressure affecting us now due to the astronomical high tides.

I also like to say thanks Doc for the new blog..feels so clean..
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


"Speaker Quinn estimated that all of these proposals combined could cost more than $20 billion. Citing precedent, including Hurricane Katrina and the rebuilding and storm proofing of New Orleans, Quinn called on the federal government to cover the bulk of these costs."


So then every city from Brownsville Texas to Portland Maine to going to want a "me too". Don't see how that is going to happen.


I suspect that you are correct regarding everyone wanting a slice of the action - and, in fact I am sure that the $ figure will only increase, especially, as the projects involved are mega/major and will take many years to initiate - let alone complete.
I am not a USA citizen, I do not even live there; however, IMHO to rely, for the most part,on Federal funding may provide an easy way for a variety of legislatures - City/State/County/Town legislatures etc to put the whole issue on the back burner. I truly believe that all layers of legislature and citizens who may choose to live in "risk areas" should "participate" in the funding.
I know I will raise "shock, horror, venom, invective" among some, but, I truly believe that many coastal towns and communities should seriously rethink their whole outlook on boardwalks - regardless of historical perspectives and/or traditions.
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@ etxwx - thank you for links and very good to see the outline proposals.
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Quoting etxwx:
Here's a City Council of NYC press release on potential improvements and code changes...at least they are looking at it.
November 13, 2012
QUINN PRESENTS VISIONARY BLUEPRINT FOR NEW YORK CITY’S PLANNING AND PREPARATION IN ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Intro: Actions in both short and long term will help reduce flooding, safeguard infrastructure and better prepare City to withstand future storms
Quinn: “As we rebuild, we must rebuild smarter. This is the single most important infrastructure challenge of our time”


New York, NY – City Council Speaker Christine C. Quinn today presented a series of proposals for better preparing New York City for the consequences of global climate change, including large-scale storms and flooding. The Speaker’s proposals ranged in scope from immediate to longer-term. She announced plans to strengthen New York City’s buildings, energy and sewer systems, mass transit and gasoline distribution. Speaker Quinn’s proposals, presented in a speech delivered before the Association for a Better New York (ABNY) included a plan to harden the city’s defenses against global warming and storm surges.

Complete text here.


"Speaker Quinn estimated that all of these proposals combined could cost more than $20 billion. Citing precedent, including Hurricane Katrina and the rebuilding and storm proofing of New Orleans, Quinn called on the federal government to cover the bulk of these costs."


So then every city from Brownsville Texas to Portland Maine to going to want a "me too". Don't see how that is going to happen.
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And more from ENGLERT - a metal roof trade industry blog
Hurricanes and Mega-storms in the Northeast: Is it time to take a new look at the building codes?

Posted on November 9, 2012 by Mitch Gaber

Excerpt: Hurricane Sandy was the ninth such devastating storm to hit the Northeast in the last five years, and it raises the question “Will the impacts of climate change only make such storms worse.”

Should we be seeing the same kind of stringent wind uplift requirements in the Northeast that we have seen employed in the Southeastern states? New Jersey and particularly its shoreline was the area hardest hit by Sandy. I visited that area last week, working my way in and around debris and devastation to get a firsthand look at how Englert standing seam metal roofs had fared throughout the storm. We did pretty well. The huge waves of the storm were the primary culprits, demolishing shoreline structures. But even inland–where the water did not reach–homes and businesses with blown roofs and sheared off shingles dotted the landscape.

Two days after my visit—in early November–a Nor’easter slammed the coastline, dumping a foot of snow in some places. Coincidence or climate change? Regardless, the damage has been done. It’s probably time we started re-evaluating the old building codes that have clearly failed to meet the wrath of these storms. It is time for building officials, the building community and the insurance industry to take a page from the South and begin to restructure the codes so we don’t have to face the same kind of massive devastation ever again. And even beyond the implementation of similar codes we should—in the case of metal roofing—consider requiring an American Society of Consulting Engineers (ASCE) analysis to specify the most storm proof construction, a weather tightness warranty from the roofing material manufacturer with onsite installation inspections and the services of a certified installation contractor who will properly install the roof and supervision by an architect with experience in metal roof installation.


Complete text here.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Can I use her as my avatar? My daughter really likes her and my husband even bought her a book with Rainy.



I like your avi , suits your blog style :) I never figured out how to download an avi even though I was told how to .
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Quoting SSideBrac:
I am curious as to whether anyone has either, heard of or, seen indications that there may be a re-assessment of Building Codes for certain NJ/NY locations, in light of Sandy damages?


Yes, I believe it was Gov. Cuomo who spoke about rebuilding in a much different way in order to handle future storms, such as Sandy. I'd imagine that would include homes located in flood zones.
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Here's a City Council of NYC press release on potential improvements and code changes...at least they are looking at it.
November 13, 2012
QUINN PRESENTS VISIONARY BLUEPRINT FOR NEW YORK CITY’S PLANNING AND PREPARATION IN ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Intro: Actions in both short and long term will help reduce flooding, safeguard infrastructure and better prepare City to withstand future storms
Quinn: “As we rebuild, we must rebuild smarter. This is the single most important infrastructure challenge of our time”


New York, NY – City Council Speaker Christine C. Quinn today presented a series of proposals for better preparing New York City for the consequences of global climate change, including large-scale storms and flooding. The Speaker’s proposals ranged in scope from immediate to longer-term. She announced plans to strengthen New York City’s buildings, energy and sewer systems, mass transit and gasoline distribution. Speaker Quinn’s proposals, presented in a speech delivered before the Association for a Better New York (ABNY) included a plan to harden the city’s defenses against global warming and storm surges.

Complete text here.
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51. percylives
3:58 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I suppose it's possible that Sandy's extraordinarily large size was merely just a "freak of nature". By that same token, of course, I also suppose this summer's record low Arctic sea ice was a "freak of nature". And the current record low global ice area is a "freak of nature". And the fact that this year has been the warmest ever recorded in the U.S. was a "freak of nature". And last year's monstrous tornado outbreaks...the three largest ever in the U.S. were just "freaks of nature". And the bizarre Russian heat wave of 2010 (the deepest in at least 1,000 years) was a "freak of nature". And this summer's Greenland melt was a "freak of nature". And this past spring's very anomalous U.S. heat wave was a "freak of nature". And the fact that 2010 was the wettest year ever for the planet was a "freak of nature". And the fact that four of Philadelphia's ten largest snowfalls ever took place between December 2009 and January 2011 was a "freak of nature". And the largest-ever wildfires for New Mexico and Arizona that occurred over the past two summers were just "freaks of nature". And last year's deepest-ever drought in Mexico was a "freak of nature". And this year's TS Beryl, the strongest tropical cyclone to ever make landfall in the U.S. before the official start of hurricane season, was a "freak of nature". And last year's unprecedented rainfall in Columbia (that nation's heaviest ever) was but a "freak of nature". And the formation of Cat 4 EPac Hurricane Kenneth in November, by far the strongest ever in that region so late in the year, was a "freak of nature". And the January, 2010, low pressure system in the U.S. Southwest, the most powerful one on record, was a "freak of nature"...

And so on. My, but that's a lot of freaks. In fact, that's more freaks than you'd find on a 19th-century circus midway. And one can't help but wonder what could possibly be making them occur. Some claim it's just coincidence, but I'm not so sure...


Great post.

Too many tosses coming up "heads". That's a loaded nickel.
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49. washingtonian115
3:52 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Gonna be a rough December and early January for you, Washi. And what happened to Rainy?
Sorry had to get rid of her.
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48. LargoFl
3:52 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50444
47. LargoFl
3:50 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50444
46. pcola57
3:49 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting SSideBrac:


I will start looking there but often takes a long time to get "out to the public" - was more curious on any press/media reports.

The "downside" of such Building Code enhancements is the expense - people whose properties need complete rebuild are almost inevitably (and sadly) going to find that they end up in the "underinsured" category.

Additionally, I would certainly hope that NYC Subway (whatever they are called) are seriously looking at more effective flood barrier protection/isolation of vulnerable locations. I realise that this will be a massive and expensive project over many years but they already have a "sequence of flood events/danger levels" to initiate a meaningful pilot project. NYC area was first settled by the Dutch - maybe they have the experts to assist as a lot of them live below sea level right now and, are amongst the world's foremost exponents of major flood barriers and protection - BTW, I am niether, from the NL nor, represent a flood barrier company.


It was just a suggestion on my part as thats where it will be put into law IMO..
A call to action on this is totally called for as you brought up..
Too many lives were lost (1 is too many IMO) and the "I didn't know it would be this bad" crowd disgust me..
They know what we go through here on the GOM and they have their Nor'easter's as a standard as well..
Although Sandy was a phenom,those in charge should have some mud in their eye's as well..
Not saying all is perfect,just saying what happened and it's severity should have been marginalized..
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45. LargoFl
3:48 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
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44. bappit
3:47 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Regarding post 34.

Don't take the bait!
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43. LargoFl
3:47 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...

CTZ009-010-NYZ071-073-078-176-177-151800-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.S.0022.121115T1500Z-121115T1800Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
422 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012

......MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND SHORELINE

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...AROUND HALF A FOOT.

* TIMING...AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE 11 AM TO NOON EST.

* IMPACTS...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

$$
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41. LargoFl
3:45 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
7-day for the Tampa Bay area......................
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40. catman306
3:45 PM GMT on November 15, 2012

2. Christopher C. Burt, Weather Historian
4:48 AM GMT on November 15, 2012

Quoting catman306:
Do you keep statistics for nor'easters on the number and severity, year by year?



Afraid not. But that WOULD make for an interesting database.


Does anyone else keep such a data base on nor'easters?
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39. LargoFl
3:44 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
12Z GFS at 48 Hours.............
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38. LargoFl
3:42 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
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37. percylives
3:41 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Thanks, doc.

Now will someone wake the newly re-elected administration up to the fact that ExxonMobil supports the idea of a Carbon Tax.

I would expect that they would prefer to keep it small and allow them to take advantage of all their investments in natural gas compared to coal. Natural gas produces a lot less CO2 per unit of power than coal.

But there is nothing in the books that says Obama and team cannot use this opening to forge a great alliance between the natural gas producers and environmentalists to favor that product as the bridge to renewable power sources. A carbon tax will, if written correctly, cost all fossil fuel producers at some level.

The real trick is to give the money back to the people as a national dividend so they can learn to make money by using less. If we can make that leap the rest of the journey to a sustainable future may actually be doable.
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36. bappit
3:40 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting SSideBrac:


Take your point and I DO know that "shock and awe" feeling - but, for their sake, I would just hate to see a "Lessons Learned" report X years down line repeating the same "Lessons Learned" observations/findings.

Sure thing. Asking questions like yours is a way to get over the awe and helplessness.
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35. LargoFl
3:40 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 50444
33. SSideBrac
3:39 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting bappit:

I think forward-looking responses to a disaster that just happened requires a previous disaster to plant the seed. One disaster lays the foundation for the response to the next one. Then people can come out early and say, "See?"

I suspect they're still in shock and awe. Re-assessments can happen, but I doubt they have a lot of political energy for it at the moment. I hope people are out there collecting data, though.


Take your point and I DO know that "shock and awe" feeling - but, for their sake, I would just hate to see a "Lessons Learned" report X years down line repeating the same "Lessons Learned" observations/findings.
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32. LargoFl
3:38 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
there IS a low out there off the carolina's
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31. bappit
3:37 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting sar2401:

Thanks for the interesting summary, Teddy. It appears this will be the seventh year in a row without a major hurricane making landfall(as a major) in the CONUS. Where does that stand in the record books?

I like CyberMan Teddy's post, too, and the stats and trends can make interesting discussion, but (here I go) ....

I sure wish that term "major hurricane" would go visit Jimmy Hoffa. We see what just happened with Sandy and the lives lost. We need people to respond to warnings (however they are phrased). We don't need an arbitrary label like "major hurricane" being talked about as if it were what is really important.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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