Hurricane Sandy's huge size: freak of nature or climate change?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:10 PM GMT on November 13, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!

Largest Atlantic tropical cyclones for area covered by tropical storm-force winds:

Olga, 2001: 780,000 square miles
Sandy, 2012: 560,000 square miles
Lili, 1996: 550,000 square miles
Igor, 2010: 550,000 square miles
Karl, 2004: 430,000 square miles



Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy’s winds (top), on October 28, 2012, when Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane with top winds of 75 mph (this ocean surface wind data is from a radar scatterometer on the Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) Oceansat-2.) Hurricane Katrina’s winds (bottom) on August 28, 2005, when Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane with top winds of 175 mph (data taken by a radar scatterometer on NASA’s defunct QuickSCAT satellite.) In both maps, wind speeds above 65 kilometers (40 miles) per hour are yellow; above 80 kph (50 mph) are orange; and above 95 kph (60 mph) are dark red. The most noticeable difference is the extent of the strong wind fields. For Katrina, winds over 65 kilometers per hour stretched about 500 kilometers (300 miles) from edge to edge. For Sandy, winds of that intensity spanned an region of ocean three times as great--1,500 kilometers (900 miles). Katrina was able to generate a record-height storm surge over a small area of the Mississippi coast. Sandy generated a lower but highly destructive storm surge over a much larger area, due to the storm's weaker winds but much larger size. Image credit: NASA.

How did Sandy get so big?
We understand fairly well what controls the peak strength of a hurricane's winds, but have a poor understanding of why some hurricanes get large and others stay small. A number of factors probably worked together to create a "prefect storm" situation that allowed Sandy to grow so large, and we also must acknowledge that climate change could have played a role. Here are some possible reasons why Sandy grew so large:

1) Initial size of the disturbance that became Sandy was large
Sandy formed from an African tropical wave that interacted with a large area of low pressure that covered most of the Central Caribbean. Rotunno and Emanuel (1987) found that hurricanes that form from large initial tropical disturbances like Sandy did tend to end up large in size.


Figure 2. The initial disturbance that spawned Sandy, seen here on October 20, 2012, was quite large.

2) High relative humidity in Sandy's genesis region
The amount of moisture in the atmosphere may play an important role in how large a hurricane gets (Hill and Lackmann, 2009.) Sandy was spawned in the Caribbean in a region where the relative humidity was near 70%. This is the highest humidity we saw during 2012 during the formation of any Atlantic hurricane.

3) Passage over Cuba
Sandy struck Cuba as an intensifying Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. While the core of the storm was over Cuba, it was cut off from the warm ocean waters surrounding Cuba. Most of Sandy's large circulation was still over the ocean, though, and the energy the storm was able to extract from the ocean went into intensifying the spiral bands over water. When Sandy's core re-emerged over water, the hurricane now had spiral bands with heavier thunderstorm activity as a result of the extra energy pumped into the outer portion of the storm during the eye's passage over land. This extra energy in the outer portions of Sandy may have enabled it to expand in size later.

4) Interaction with a trough of low pressure over the Bahamas
As Sandy passed through the Bahamas on October 25, the storm encountered strong upper-level winds associated with a trough of low pressure to the west. These winds created high wind shear that helped weaken Sandy and destroy the eyewall. However, Sandy compensated by spreading out its tropical storm-force winds over a much wider area. Between 15 and 21 UTC on October 25, Sandy's area of tropical storm-force winds increased by more than a factor of two.

5) Leveraging of the Earth's spin
As storms move towards Earth's poles, they acquire more spin, since Earth's rotation works to put more vertical spin into the atmosphere the closer one gets to the pole. This extra spin helps storms grow larger, and we commonly see hurricanes grow in size as they move northwards.

6) Interaction with a trough of low pressure at landfall
As Sandy approached landfall in New Jersey, it encountered an extratropical low pressure system to its west. This extratropical storm began pumping cold air aloft into the hurricane, which converted Sandy into an extratropical low pressure system, or "Nor'easter". The nature of extratropical storms is to have a much larger area with strong winds than a hurricane does, since extratropical storms derive their energy from the atmosphere along a frontal boundary that is typically many hundreds of miles long. Thus, as Sandy made landfall, the hurricane's strongest winds spread out over a larger area, causing damage from Indiana to Nova Scotia.

Are we likely to see more such storms in the future?
Global warming theory (Emanuel, 2005) predicts that a 2°C (3.6°F) increase in ocean temperatures should cause an increase in the peak winds of the strongest hurricanes of about about 10%. Furthermore, warmer ocean temperatures are expected to cause hurricanes to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to computer modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). However, there has been no published work describing how hurricane size may change with warmer oceans in a future climate. We've seen an unusual number of Atlantic hurricanes with large size in recent years, but we currently have no theoretical or computer modeling simulations that can explain why this is so, or if we might see more storms like this in the future. However, we've seen significant and unprecedented changes to our atmosphere in recent decades, due to our emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide. The laws of physics demand that the atmosphere must respond. Atmospheric circulation patterns that control extreme weather events must change, and we should expect extreme storms to change in character, frequency, and intensity as a result--and not always in the ways our computer models may predict. We have pushed our climate system to a fundamentally new, higher-energy state where more heat and moisture is available to power stronger storms, and we should be concerned about the possibility that Hurricane Sandy's freak size and power were partially due to human-caused climate change.

References
Emanuel, K. (2005). Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436(7051), 686-688.

Hill, Kevin A., and Gary M. Lackmann (2009), "Influence of environmental humidity on tropical cyclone size," Monthly Weather Review 137.10 (2009): 3294-3315.

Knutson, T. R., McBride, J. L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., ... & Sugi, M. (2010). Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3(3), 157-163.

Rotunno, R., & Emanuel, K. A. (1987). An air–sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary study using a nonhydrostatic axisymmetric numerical model. J. Atmos. Sci, 44(3), 542-561.

The Atlantic is quiet, but a Nor'easter expected next week
The Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss. An area of low pressure is predicted to develop just north of Bermuda on Wednesday, and the GFS model predicts that this low could become a subtropical cyclone as moves north-northeastwards out to sea late in the week.

The long-range models are in increasing agreement that a Nor'easter will develop near the North Carolina coast on Sunday, then move north to northeastwards early next week. High winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding could affect the mid-Atlantic coast and New England coasts next Monday and Tuesday due to this storm, but it appears likely that the Nor'easter will stay farther out to sea than the last Nor'easter and have less of an impact on the region devastated by Sandy. Ocean temperatures off the coast of North Carolina were cooled by about 4°F (2.2°C) due to the churning action of Hurricane Sandy's winds, but are still warm enough at 22 - 24°C to potentially allow the Nor'easter to acquire some subtropical characteristics. I doubt the storm would be able to become a named subtropical storm, but it could have an unusual amount of heavy rain if it does become partially tropical. The Nor'easter is still a long ways in the future, and there is still a lot of uncertainty on where the storm might go.

Jeff Masters

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961. ILwthrfan
3:00 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
luvtogolf
Basterdi comment...

"Anthropogenic global warming activists claim that all extreme weather events are somehow related to %u201Cglobal warming,%u201D which has been re-termed %u201Cclimate change%u201D since global temperatures are no longer warming. The FACT remains that global tropical activity, which can be measured using the ACE Index (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), is near record lows according to peer-reviewed research and even the most recent UN IPCC Special Report on Extremes (SREX 2012)."



Take the above statement from Basterdi to show that is incorrectly correlating two pieces of information here. I am assuming that the ACE does not take into account all transferred heat processes with thin the earths system. Cyclones are just one component of that. Global ACE output is only calculated from Tropical Systems ONLY or rare hybrids! It does not take into account the massive mid latitude storms that batter Alaska, the Northeast, and Europe.

Or a winter storm like this in 2006.



All low pressure systems release heat, not just tropical ones.

Look here at where the anomalies are showing up in the Ocean Temperatures. I am just using a September analog to show a point, every month anomalies change from place to place, but the the most overwhelming signal where I see warming taking place is not in tropical origins but rather the mid latitude and poles. Siberia, the Arctic, and Northern Europe all between 3 and 5 degrees Celsius where most tropical areas see between 1 and 1.5 degree Celsius at the most. Think about where we have been seeing the strange weather.



It's been in and around the Northern Jet Stream where Extra Tropical processes I think have been intensified not the tropical ones. And that is just sitting back and looking at the big picture. Just my humble opinion.

Now think how Sandy transitioned to an extra tropical storm and what anomalies that were present that would have gave her an extra boost?
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1535
960. Neapolitan
2:56 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
I suppose it's possible that Sandy's extraordinarily large size was merely just a "freak of nature". By that same token, of course, I also suppose this summer's record low Arctic sea ice was a "freak of nature". And the current record low global ice area is a "freak of nature". And the fact that this year has been the warmest ever recorded in the U.S. was a "freak of nature". And last year's monstrous tornado outbreaks--the three largest ever in the U.S.--were just "freaks of nature". And the bizarre Russian heat wave of 2010 (the deepest in at least 1,000 years) was a "freak of nature". And this summer's Greenland melt was a "freak of nature". And this past spring's very anomalous U.S. heat wave was a "freak of nature". And the fact that 2010 was the wettest year ever for the planet was a "freak of nature". And the fact that four of Philadelphia's ten largest snowfalls ever took place between December 2009 and January 2011 was a "freak of nature". And the largest-ever wildfires for New Mexico and Arizona that occurred over the past two summers were just "freaks of nature". And last year's deepest-ever drought in Mexico was a "freak of nature". And this year's TS Beryl, the strongest tropical cyclone to ever make landfall in the U.S. before the official start of hurricane season, was a "freak of nature". And last year's unprecedented rainfall in Columbia--that nation's heaviest ever--was but a "freak of nature". And the formation of Cat 4 EPac Hurricane Kenneth in November, by far the strongest ever in that region so late in the year, was a "freak of nature". And the January, 2010, low pressure system in the U.S. Southwest, the most powerful one on record, was a "freak of nature"...

And so on. My, but that's a lot of freaks. In fact, that's more freaks than you'd find on a 19th-century circus midway. And one can't help but wonder what could possibly be making them occur. Some claim it's just coincidence, but I'm not so sure...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
959. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:56 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
6
DAYS
14 :
HR
12 :
MIN
20
SEC


its 7 for me
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
958. washingtonian115
2:55 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
I'm giving Issac about a 30% chance of being retired.Dolly in 2008 caused nearly as much and wasn't retired.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17476
957. bappit
2:55 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Also note many countries are white. Take in Asia and Africa for example.

That is 2000 data. You can see the 2009 data in Wikipedia. Also it excludes CO2 from land use changes, a biggie.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6090
956. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:54 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
955. indianrivguy
2:54 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
We have only 15 days left in the season, so here's to a peaceful post-season after the season ends, and to a wonderful Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Thanks Teddy, same to you sir!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2585
954. CybrTeddy
2:47 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Looking at the latest models, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Hurricane season is probably over. No models show any development, and the GFS has dropped development through 384 hours, which puts us in December.

That would put the seasonal stats at
19-10-1, with >55 billion dollars in damages, mostly from Sandy and some from Isaac.

The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season is the 3rd most active hurricane season ever recorded, tied with last year, 2011, 2010, 1995, and 1887. This is the only time in recorded history that there have been three consecutive seasons with more than 16 named storms. This operates under the assumption that there will be no more named storms this season, or named storms declared in the post season.

This season began very early and was unusual from the start, with for the first time since 1908 we saw two storms develop before June, and even more unusual with the fact that we were at Debby by June. However, no storms developed in July. The assumption was at the beginning of August that we would only have 12 named storms this year at least, this turned out to be completely wrong.

Odds are that Hurricane Sandy will probably be upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, and possibly even Hurricane Gordon, so I will hold off on commenting on the low amount of major hurricanes compared to seasonal activity. It is slightly possible that Beryl will be upgraded to a hurricane upon landfall in Florida, though there is little evidence to do so other than some high SFMR reports.

That would put the seasonal total more like 19-10-3 with two additional major hurricanes.

The 'it only takes one' factor came into play this year with devastating results. Hurricane Sandy became the 2nd most destructive hurricane to ever hit the United States with over 50 billion dollars in damages, well over Ike and Andrew's totals.

The names to be retired this year is Sandy, and probably Isaac (2 billion dollars in damages to Louisiana).

We have only 15 days left in the season, so here's to a peaceful post-season after the season ends, and to a wonderful Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24461
953. SFLWeatherman
2:47 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
6
DAYS
14 :
HR
12 :
MIN
20
SEC
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
THANKSGIVING COUNTDOWN.
_____________________________________

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4923
952. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:37 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
THANKSGIVING COUNTDOWN.
_____________________________________

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
951. washingtonian115
2:30 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
What this blog needs is a good storm to track.Tomorrow is Friday thank goodness and I still have a little faith that we here in D.C will see a small to moderate snow event.Currently calling for about a 60% chance of that happening.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17476
950. Skyepony (Mod)
2:17 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
949. originalLT
2:15 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Aislinnpaps, maybe it's just time for a new one, they are not expensive and as yoboi points out, they save lives. Don't play around with this. By the way, where are you located?
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7715
948. Skyepony (Mod)
2:13 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Jobless claims soar after Hurricane Sandy
Storm damage boosts requests for benefits by 78,000 to 439,000
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
947. Skyepony (Mod)
2:09 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Paul McCartney, Kanye West, The Who, Alicia Keys to perform at Sandy relief concert
12-12-12:
The Concert for Sandy Relief will also feature performances by Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band, Roger Waters, Jon Bon Jovi, Billy Joel & more

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
946. yoboi
2:07 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting aislinnpaps:
It's getting colder instead of warmer, now down to 36 from 39. The sun needs to come up and the dang smoke detector needs to stop beeping! Gave it a new battery yesterday and at three am this morning it started again. It's the one in my bedroom, and after my house fire two years ago, I can't find the words of what it does to me to wake up to it!


make sure you have it placed in the correct location is it near a fan, vent, steam???? to be really safe you should have them ran in seris with electricty with a battery backup....remember smoke detectors save lifes....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2386
945. Skyepony (Mod)
2:06 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Corps of Engineers works with N.Y. Dept. of Sanitation in Hurricane Sandy debris removal

Hey wunderkid..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
944. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:06 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
WINTER WEATHER UPDATE
________________________________


California storm



click it for bigger size
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
943. wunderkidcayman
2:02 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
hey guys just popping in to say hello
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12349
942. Skyepony (Mod)
2:00 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Since he's living in the NE I shouldn't have been so surprised that Trey Anastasio's latest album has so many mentions of extreme weather & climate change. Valentine official video..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
941. yoboi
1:58 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting Bielle:


and that means what? You have a conclusion; spit it out. If you don't, stop with the coy little jibes.



i don't have a conclusion was just making a simple statement.....just like we are 16 trillion in debt is a simple statement.....

Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2386
940. islander101010
1:49 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
whats interesting is the storms are forecast to be slightly further away from the islands than usual which to me as a washed up surfer means cleaner conditions surfing is big money now alot depends on whether they get waves or not these next few months. and dont forget they have the Eddie at waimea bay which needs at least 20ft to run. a rare event some yrs
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4866
939. islander101010
1:33 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
surfline just posted their surf report for this winter on the north shores of the haw. calling for a slightly better than average 6/10.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4866
938. beell
1:03 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16862
937. HondosGirl
12:48 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Gloomy again today --- cool with a fine blowing mist. Ready to see a little blue sky and sunshine! Have a great Thursday!
Member Since: August 20, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
936. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:46 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
hi guys...

awesome dy today for me here
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
935. AussieStorm
12:27 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Tomorrow looks to be a very dangerous day for parts of Western Queensland, The BOM have issued a severe fire weather warning.

FIRE WEATHER WARNING
for the Channel Country, Maranoa and Warrego and parts of the North West,
Central West and Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts.
Issued at 6:55pm EST on Thursday the 15th of November 2012
for Friday.

A trough extending across northern South Australia and northern New South Wales is moving slowly in an eastwards direction. The trough is expected to continue moving eastwards on Friday and enter southwest Queensland during the day. Hot, dry and gusty winds associated with the trough are expected to cause the following conditions on Friday:

Extreme Fire Danger in southern parts of the Channel Country and southwest parts of the Maranoa and Warrego districts, particularly during the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures up to 41 degrees, relative humidity to less than 10% and winds between 40 to 45 km/hr are expected. Locations which may be affected include Thargomindah and Cunnamulla.

Severe Fire Danger in remaining parts of the Channel Country, Maranoa and Warrego, southern parts of the Northwest, southwest parts of the Central West and southwest parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts.
Temperatures up to 43 degrees(109F), relative humidity down to 10% and winds to 35km/hr(22mph) are expected.


The next warning will be issued at 11pm AEST.



Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
934. aislinnpaps
12:19 PM GMT on November 15, 2012
Everyone have a great Thursday!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3159
933. LargoFl
11:57 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40832
932. LargoFl
11:55 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40832
931. LargoFl
11:54 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
not so warm in texas today...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40832
930. aislinnpaps
11:53 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
It's getting colder instead of warmer, now down to 36 from 39. The sun needs to come up and the dang smoke detector needs to stop beeping! Gave it a new battery yesterday and at three am this morning it started again. It's the one in my bedroom, and after my house fire two years ago, I can't find the words of what it does to me to wake up to it!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3159
929. LargoFl
11:52 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40832
928. LargoFl
11:52 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning/evening all. It's 39 degrees with a windchill of 33. I may have to turn on the heat if it doesn't warm up in a day or two.
good morning..IF it was 39 here by me..the heat would already be on LOL..stay warm up there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40832
927. PensacolaDoug
11:48 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
This is an apology to Koritheman.

Last eve I posted a comment that was uncalled for.
It was a cheap-shot, knee-jerk reaction to one of his posts that I didn't agree with. I regret it, and I am sorry.
I read your blog, Kori. You do a good job with it and you bring alot of positives to this place.
Sincerely
Doug

Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
926. islander101010
11:46 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
wonder why the president does not trust oil companies? bp gulf most likely
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4866
925. LargoFl
11:34 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Good Morning Folks..7-day for the Tampa Bay area......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40832
924. aislinnpaps
11:15 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Good morning/evening all. It's 39 degrees with a windchill of 33. I may have to turn on the heat if it doesn't warm up in a day or two.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3159
923. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
7:53 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 02-20122013
10:00 AM RET November 15 2012
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1004 hPa) located at 9.6S 71.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D 0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.9S 68.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 10.0S 66.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 9.7S 62.7E - 24 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================
Vertical wind shear has decreased since yesterday over the disturbed weather area monitored since a few days ago. System has organized and deep convective activity keeps on persisting near the center since 1600 PM UTC. It presents now a curved band pattern (refer to 2243 PM UTC, F17 0116 AM UTC, WINDSAT 0123 AM UTC, and F18 0329 AM UTC).

OSCAT 1856 PM UTC and partial covered ASCAT 0512 AM UTC swath confirms that near gale force winds 30 knots exists in the southern semi-circle.

A weak to moderate wind shear window is expected to keep on persisting up to 1200 PM UTC before east northeasterly upper level winds strengthen back. Despite the indirect equatorward low level inflow and an only sustained poleward one, system is expected to deepen into a tropical depression stage within the next night (a more rapid intensification is however not excluded)

Current intensity of the system does not justify issuance of regular advisory
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46136
922. whitewabit (Mod)
7:31 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
HOUSTON/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - BP Plc is expected to pay a record criminal penalty and plead guilty to criminal misconduct in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster through a plea agreement it has reached with the U.S. Department of Justice that may be announced as soon as Thursday, according to sources familiar with discussions.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31738
921. Slamguitar
7:16 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Also note many countries are white. Take in Asia and Africa for example.


South America too.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
920. AussieStorm
5:17 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting bappit:

I'll repost this. Note that the US is the third most populous nation.


Also note many countries are white. Take in Asia and Africa for example.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
919. whitewabit (Mod)
5:12 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Shelter from the Storm

Bruce’s ingenious design of covering our glass-fronted Bay-front house with upturned decks is still working. Here’s how I covered up for Hurricane Sandy. Hope I don’t need to use it often.
–Nancy Bauer, Deale

Editor’s note: Nancy’s deceased husband Bruce Bauer wrote about his ingenious design in Bay Weekly back in the last century.




Thr decking must be hinged at the bottom so it can be lifted up next to the house .. good idea ...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31738
918. AussieStorm
5:10 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Well, correct me if I'm wrong, but the plate at the San Andreas fault is moving north/south. The Asian boundary of the ring of fire is expanding east/west..the opening fissure creating islands. That kind of plate boundary will create more big quakes I think. Slip faults are worst for big quakes, but where the crust is opening up and creating new land is still most active. I spent half my life trying to move from earthquake zones! LOL Though, can still get hit with mid-continental stress!

The San Andreas Fault is a strike-slip fault. The Asian zone of the Pacific ring of fire is a subduction area, which means 1 plate is riding over another and it pushes that one down. The mega quake off Japan in March 2011 was a result of the top plate flexing/bouncing back after being pulled down by the sub-ducting plate called a mega-thrust quake. Similar to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake which was also a mega-thrust quake. The difference is the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake ruptured a long a 1000km-1300km length of the fault. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake ruptured along about 500km's of the fault. There is still another 1500km's of the Tohoku fault to rupture both north and south of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture zone. There is another dangerous area that has not gone off for a long time and is actually gone over the expected time, that's the Cascadia subduction zone, which is off the west-coast of the Pacific Northwest from northern California to Vancouver Island, British Columbia. On the east coast there is the Atlantic ridge that runs from north to south and can be clearly seen on google earth, the plates there are spreading apart.



Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
917. bappit
5:04 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did i say that, I said the insults need to stop. It's like friggin school yard in here.
Debating is fine but arguing is not. It's like whoever can shout the loudest winds. It's all about getting ones point across not who can shout the loudest. The good thing i see about the AGW/CC debate is people are seriously looking at other ways to create energy from other sources other than oil and coal. The faster we faze these two out the better for the whole planet. but of course it need to be financially viable from 3rd grade countries to 1st grade countries. What's the point of 1st grade countries cleaning up there act if the 2nd and 3rd grade countries don't. That would be like plugging a whole in a dam when it's abut to over-top.

I'll repost this. Note that the US is the third most populous nation.

Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6090
916. Skyepony (Mod)
4:57 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Subway damage from Sandy update.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
915. Skyepony (Mod)
4:53 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Shelter from the Storm

Bruce’s ingenious design of covering our glass-fronted Bay-front house with upturned decks is still working. Here’s how I covered up for Hurricane Sandy. Hope I don’t need to use it often.
–Nancy Bauer, Deale

Editor’s note: Nancy’s deceased husband Bruce Bauer wrote about his ingenious design in Bay Weekly back in the last century.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
914. Accu35blog
4:49 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
I love eggnog too
Member Since: October 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
913. Skyepony (Mod)
4:45 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
18zGFS


Quoting sullivanweather:




I see a rodent...


I see the gerbil.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 191 Comments: 38624
912. SherwoodSpirit
4:44 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hi guys...

look at this stunning pic from Australia total eclipse...NASA

i might use it as my desktop picture


Thanks for sharing this. I found a large version of the photo here:

Link
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 398
911. VaStormGuy
4:40 AM GMT on November 15, 2012
Quoting sullivanweather:




I see a rodent...


I think those clouds.. look like clouds.
Member Since: October 30, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 83

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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