Hurricane Sandy's huge size: freak of nature or climate change?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:10 PM GMT on November 13, 2012

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Hurricane Sandy was truly astounding in its size and power. At its peak size, twenty hours before landfall, Sandy had tropical storm-force winds that covered an area nearly one-fifth the area of the contiguous United States. Since detailed records of hurricane size began in 1988, only one tropical storm (Olga of 2001) has had a larger area of tropical storm-force winds, and no hurricanes has. Sandy's area of ocean with twelve-foot seas peaked at 1.4 million square miles--nearly one-half the area of the contiguous United States, or 1% of Earth's total ocean area. Most incredibly, ten hours before landfall (9:30 am EDT October 30), the total energy of Sandy's winds of tropical storm-force and higher peaked at 329 terajoules--the highest value for any Atlantic hurricane since at least 1969. This is 2.7 times higher than Katrina's peak energy, and is equivalent to five Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. At landfall, Sandy's tropical storm-force winds spanned 943 miles of the the U.S. coast. No hurricane on record has been wider; the previous record holder was Hurricane Igor of 2010, which was 863 miles in diameter. Sandy's huge size prompted high wind warnings to be posted from Chicago to Eastern Maine, and from Michigan's Upper Peninsula to Florida's Lake Okeechobee--an area home to 120 million people. Sandy's winds simultaneously caused damage to buildings on the shores of Lake Michigan at Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore, and toppled power lines in Nova Scotia, Canada--locations 1200 miles apart!

Largest Atlantic tropical cyclones for area covered by tropical storm-force winds:

Olga, 2001: 780,000 square miles
Sandy, 2012: 560,000 square miles
Lili, 1996: 550,000 square miles
Igor, 2010: 550,000 square miles
Karl, 2004: 430,000 square miles



Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy’s winds (top), on October 28, 2012, when Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane with top winds of 75 mph (this ocean surface wind data is from a radar scatterometer on the Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO) Oceansat-2.) Hurricane Katrina’s winds (bottom) on August 28, 2005, when Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane with top winds of 175 mph (data taken by a radar scatterometer on NASA’s defunct QuickSCAT satellite.) In both maps, wind speeds above 65 kilometers (40 miles) per hour are yellow; above 80 kph (50 mph) are orange; and above 95 kph (60 mph) are dark red. The most noticeable difference is the extent of the strong wind fields. For Katrina, winds over 65 kilometers per hour stretched about 500 kilometers (300 miles) from edge to edge. For Sandy, winds of that intensity spanned an region of ocean three times as great--1,500 kilometers (900 miles). Katrina was able to generate a record-height storm surge over a small area of the Mississippi coast. Sandy generated a lower but highly destructive storm surge over a much larger area, due to the storm's weaker winds but much larger size. Image credit: NASA.

How did Sandy get so big?
We understand fairly well what controls the peak strength of a hurricane's winds, but have a poor understanding of why some hurricanes get large and others stay small. A number of factors probably worked together to create a "prefect storm" situation that allowed Sandy to grow so large, and we also must acknowledge that climate change could have played a role. Here are some possible reasons why Sandy grew so large:

1) Initial size of the disturbance that became Sandy was large
Sandy formed from an African tropical wave that interacted with a large area of low pressure that covered most of the Central Caribbean. Rotunno and Emanuel (1987) found that hurricanes that form from large initial tropical disturbances like Sandy did tend to end up large in size.


Figure 2. The initial disturbance that spawned Sandy, seen here on October 20, 2012, was quite large.

2) High relative humidity in Sandy's genesis region
The amount of moisture in the atmosphere may play an important role in how large a hurricane gets (Hill and Lackmann, 2009.) Sandy was spawned in the Caribbean in a region where the relative humidity was near 70%. This is the highest humidity we saw during 2012 during the formation of any Atlantic hurricane.

3) Passage over Cuba
Sandy struck Cuba as an intensifying Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. While the core of the storm was over Cuba, it was cut off from the warm ocean waters surrounding Cuba. Most of Sandy's large circulation was still over the ocean, though, and the energy the storm was able to extract from the ocean went into intensifying the spiral bands over water. When Sandy's core re-emerged over water, the hurricane now had spiral bands with heavier thunderstorm activity as a result of the extra energy pumped into the outer portion of the storm during the eye's passage over land. This extra energy in the outer portions of Sandy may have enabled it to expand in size later.

4) Interaction with a trough of low pressure over the Bahamas
As Sandy passed through the Bahamas on October 25, the storm encountered strong upper-level winds associated with a trough of low pressure to the west. These winds created high wind shear that helped weaken Sandy and destroy the eyewall. However, Sandy compensated by spreading out its tropical storm-force winds over a much wider area. Between 15 and 21 UTC on October 25, Sandy's area of tropical storm-force winds increased by more than a factor of two.

5) Leveraging of the Earth's spin
As storms move towards Earth's poles, they acquire more spin, since Earth's rotation works to put more vertical spin into the atmosphere the closer one gets to the pole. This extra spin helps storms grow larger, and we commonly see hurricanes grow in size as they move northwards.

6) Interaction with a trough of low pressure at landfall
As Sandy approached landfall in New Jersey, it encountered an extratropical low pressure system to its west. This extratropical storm began pumping cold air aloft into the hurricane, which converted Sandy into an extratropical low pressure system, or "Nor'easter". The nature of extratropical storms is to have a much larger area with strong winds than a hurricane does, since extratropical storms derive their energy from the atmosphere along a frontal boundary that is typically many hundreds of miles long. Thus, as Sandy made landfall, the hurricane's strongest winds spread out over a larger area, causing damage from Indiana to Nova Scotia.

Are we likely to see more such storms in the future?
Global warming theory (Emanuel, 2005) predicts that a 2°C (3.6°F) increase in ocean temperatures should cause an increase in the peak winds of the strongest hurricanes of about about 10%. Furthermore, warmer ocean temperatures are expected to cause hurricanes to dump 20% more rain in their cores by the year 2100, according to computer modeling studies (Knutson et al., 2010). However, there has been no published work describing how hurricane size may change with warmer oceans in a future climate. We've seen an unusual number of Atlantic hurricanes with large size in recent years, but we currently have no theoretical or computer modeling simulations that can explain why this is so, or if we might see more storms like this in the future. However, we've seen significant and unprecedented changes to our atmosphere in recent decades, due to our emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide. The laws of physics demand that the atmosphere must respond. Atmospheric circulation patterns that control extreme weather events must change, and we should expect extreme storms to change in character, frequency, and intensity as a result--and not always in the ways our computer models may predict. We have pushed our climate system to a fundamentally new, higher-energy state where more heat and moisture is available to power stronger storms, and we should be concerned about the possibility that Hurricane Sandy's freak size and power were partially due to human-caused climate change.

References
Emanuel, K. (2005). Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436(7051), 686-688.

Hill, Kevin A., and Gary M. Lackmann (2009), "Influence of environmental humidity on tropical cyclone size," Monthly Weather Review 137.10 (2009): 3294-3315.

Knutson, T. R., McBride, J. L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., ... & Sugi, M. (2010). Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3(3), 157-163.

Rotunno, R., & Emanuel, K. A. (1987). An air–sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary study using a nonhydrostatic axisymmetric numerical model. J. Atmos. Sci, 44(3), 542-561.

The Atlantic is quiet, but a Nor'easter expected next week
The Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss. An area of low pressure is predicted to develop just north of Bermuda on Wednesday, and the GFS model predicts that this low could become a subtropical cyclone as moves north-northeastwards out to sea late in the week.

The long-range models are in increasing agreement that a Nor'easter will develop near the North Carolina coast on Sunday, then move north to northeastwards early next week. High winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding could affect the mid-Atlantic coast and New England coasts next Monday and Tuesday due to this storm, but it appears likely that the Nor'easter will stay farther out to sea than the last Nor'easter and have less of an impact on the region devastated by Sandy. Ocean temperatures off the coast of North Carolina were cooled by about 4°F (2.2°C) due to the churning action of Hurricane Sandy's winds, but are still warm enough at 22 - 24°C to potentially allow the Nor'easter to acquire some subtropical characteristics. I doubt the storm would be able to become a named subtropical storm, but it could have an unusual amount of heavy rain if it does become partially tropical. The Nor'easter is still a long ways in the future, and there is still a lot of uncertainty on where the storm might go.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TomballTXPride:

How's the weather in Mattoon Charleston area? Good I'm assuming?


Been very windy, even had a bit of snow on the car Monday morning.
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Scientists and economists Tuesday warned lawmakers of consequences Florida faces from climate change, including more destructive hurricanes and a rising sea level, but they also said the state could be a leader in reducing global warming.


Harold Wanless, chairman of the University of Miami's Department of Geological Sciences, predicted a 1.5 foot rise in sea level in 50 years and a three- to five-foot increase by the end of the century.


"Three feet's going to get messy," he said. "Four feet becomes extremely difficult to live in South Florida and five feet probably impossible."


At two feet, South Florida would still be livable, Wanless said


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,309177,00.html #ixzz2CDtieX2s
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Well I heard that the population of raintoads in the upper Amazon in June was actually really high this year, therefore we are heading towards an ice age...


Quoting pcola57:



Morning Pot..
What's the price of ju-ju beans this am.. :) ?


The price of ju-ju beans is directly and inversely proportionate to the state of the Climate.
Price is through the roof right now.
Good thing I've got 846 tons stashed away.

Some nice showers down here over the w/e and continuing.
Looking at a decent area of convection way out in the Atl and wondering if it will make it all the way here.
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WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF ALL THE ICE IN THE WORLD MELTED?...............Sea level would rise about 70 meters (230 feet) vertically and put large parts of the world underwater. For example Florida, the Netherlands and most of England would disappear. Only the tops of New York City’s skyscrapers would be visible. For this to happen the entire Antarctica ice cap would have to melt. Fortunately, the average temperature in most of Antarctica is around -37 °C (-35 °F) and shows no indication of rising above freezing any time soon. So the complete melt down scenario isn’t likely to happen.

The Greenland Ice Sheet on the other hand is melting. After the Antarctic Ice Sheet, it’s the second largest ice body in the world. A study shows that between 2003 and 2008 the Greenland Ice Sheet lost and average of 195 cubic kilometers of ice per year. That’s enough to cause an annual rise in global sea level of only a half a millimeter a year (5 cm over one century). What is troubling is that the rate of ice loss in the last couple years has increased dramatically. If you compare the first two years of the study to the last two there has been a 70% increase. Scientist don’t have enough data yet to determine if this increasing trend will continue.

What if the Greenland Ice Sheet were to completely melt? Sea level would rise by more than 7 m (23 ft) placing most coastal areas and large coastal cities like London and Los Angeles under water.
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


So it is! Cheers to that and to the cert! I wonder what cocktail is most appropriate for toasting GIS. Hmmm.

And that's a gorgeous image, packed with info. Thanks for sharing it.


In my experience, beer is ALWAYS an appropriate choice for toasting among us geo types. Indeed, I brew my own and plan to crack open one of my bitters tonight to celebrate getting that application in the mail.

We're having another boring, er, I mean "quiet" weather day here in Colorado:

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606. yoboi
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Is that by number of events, or acres burned? I could see the number of fires, including smaller ones, having a lot more to do with direct human activity as a percentage than the acreage involved.

The Moonlight Fire from a few years back was human-accidental (from a campfire, as I recall), but it's the only one up around here I can recall that burned a really significant chunk in the last while. Some of those lightning storms this summer caused some havoc up around the northern inner coast range and then also over in Plumas Co, and the fires up around the border and into Klamath were _awful_ this year, in terms of acreage. I think all of that was lightning.

But we do have a lot of smaller grass fires and things that are often some idjit throwing a cigarette out the window, or parking the still-hot car in the tall dry grass; they're frequent, they just usually don't get nearly as out of hand.


i posted a link with a global study humans cause the most on a global basis....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
.....................NAEFS model in 168 hours
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Hydrus
"10,500 B.C. predate Noah's Flood by a huge period of time. Floods are common now, but there were monumental floods the further back one goes toward the previous ice age. The Scablands of the Northwestern U.S. are one such flood due to ice and the damming of meltwater. The Med has had floods that may rival the Massoula Lake Floods."



Good Stuff Hydrus

Yes, there many events before and after the Younger Dyras Event. Everywhere where glacial lakes formed only to be released when an earth or ice dam gave away. I believe the Black Sea also had large flood around 5,600 B.C. It could very well be that those Cultures where in fact witness to many isolated events that centered around the one large event in itself that started the whole domino effect then.

I for one am most intrigued by the Younger Dyras Event and it's possible relationship to certain "holy sites" around the world that correspond to a constellation that at that particular site of interest would have seen that constellation rise perfectly with the precision of the equinoxes only in the 10,500 BC time frame. The Sphinx in Egypt is aligned with Leo, The Angkor in Cambodia is aligned with Draco, there are also sites in England that do also correspond to Taurus the bull, but all only would have seen it happen during that particular time frame of 10,500. For whatever reason that point in time was important to the builder of those sites.
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603. yoboi
data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2000-047.pdf
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
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Quoting Naga5000:


While that number is somewhat accurate for the United States, the world wide number is estimated to be near 25%. The main reason for the large increase of man made fires in the U.S. is the encroachment of man into more rural areas as our population increases and spreads.


Is that by number of events, or acres burned? I could see the number of fires, including smaller ones, having a lot more to do with direct human activity as a percentage than the acreage involved.

The Moonlight Fire from a few years back was human-accidental (from a campfire, as I recall), but it's the only one up around here I can recall that burned a really significant chunk in the last while. Some of those lightning storms this summer caused some havoc up around the northern inner coast range and then also over in Plumas Co, and the fires up around the border and into Klamath were _awful_ this year, in terms of acreage. I think all of that was lightning.

But we do have a lot of smaller grass fires and things that are often some idjit throwing a cigarette out the window, or parking the still-hot car in the tall dry grass; they're frequent, they just usually don't get nearly as out of hand.
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Quoting pottery:


HA !

You are ignoring the proven effects of the spawning of the RainToad in the Upper Amazon in June ??

Ridiculous.


Well I heard that the population of raintoads in the upper Amazon in June was actually really high this year, therefore we are heading towards an ice age...
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Quoting goosegirl1:


I agree. I know that it will be hard for families, but if the tax hits the right people, and the rest of us try to conserve to reduce the tax load, I am all in favor of this. I hope there are no die-hard coal people here to read this... carbon taxes are extremely unpopular in WV :)
it is going to be interesting in seeing how people react to these new taxes in the near future
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Quoting pottery:


HA !

You are ignoring the proven effects of the spawning of the RainToad in the Upper Amazon in June ??

Ridiculous.


Morning Pot..
What's the price of ju-ju beans this am.. :) ?
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You know alot of claims being made here this am but very little in the way of "sources"
Coincidence ?
Convenience ?
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Quoting yoboi:


i did not know a forest fire are considered a climate event because 9 out of 10 forest fires are caused by humans...


While that number is somewhat accurate for the United States, the world wide number is estimated to be near 25%. The main reason for the large increase of man made fires in the U.S. is the encroachment of man into more rural areas as our population increases and spreads.
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Quoting bappit:
"Let me illiterate that it's often the same talking heads on here that seem to point to AGW as the direct and sole cause of Sandy."

I keep seeing this claim being made (the bold face part at least) and I know it is absolutely not true. It has been pointed out previously that anyone reading the blog carefully (Dr. M's part or the comments for that matter) would also know it is not true, yet the claim continues to be made. So to sort of fix things I'll make the wild exaggerated claim that people keep saying has been made already (though it has not) so the people saying that the wild exaggerated claim has been made will not look silly.

... global warming is the direct and sole cause of sandy ...

Please note that I am making this statement outside of any context, so please do not quote me on it since you would be quoting me out of context.


HA !

You are ignoring the proven effects of the spawning of the RainToad in the Upper Amazon in June ??

Ridiculous.
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Quoting Bielle:


(Boldface mine)

I am not sure what "illiterate" means aside from "unable to read" (which doesn't appear to be the way it is being used here) but I do understand the rest of the sentence. I don't read every comment on this blog every day, but I have yet to see anyone who posts here regularly ("the same talking heads") who claims AGW was the "direct and sole cause" of Sandy; not a one. This type of exaggeration weakens any case you may have.

He's made this claim several times. I wish he'd start mentioning specifics, because those of us who actually study environmental science (including Dr. Masters' own posts) have said, repeated, re-iterated, clarified, and said again that climate is playing a role in today's weather such as Hurricane Sandy, but climate change cannot be determined as the cause of any event.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Terrific Point, Illinois Weather Fan. Let me illiterate that it's often the same talking heads on here that seem to point to AGW as the direct and sole cause of Sandy. That is unscientific. Rather, it's more like AGW could have and likely have contributed to Sandy in one way or another. And you illustrated a very fine point in addressing the Sea surface temperatures quite nicely. However, let's be careful, because we also have seen those temperatures far above average like this in years past that didn't produce Sandy.

Great point, IWF. How's the weather in Mattoon Charleston area? Good I'm assuming?
[ih-lit-er-uh-see]
noun, for 3.
1.
a lack of ability to read and write.
2.
the state of being illiterate; lack of any or enough education.
3.
a mistake in writing or speaking, felt to be characteristic of an illiterate or semiliterate person: a post that was full of illiteracies.
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Quoting yoboi:


i was just using data from the US fire admin....almost half caused by humans was arson the rest accident.


Huh. Dunno what data they're using -- the big forest fire type things are usually dealt with under the authority of either state forestry depts or national forest service/national parks, depending. The jurisdiction can be very weird. I can name a lot of the big fires around here in the last few years, and they were lightning.

Guess I should also add that some of the increasing _cost_ also has to do with people developing out into areas in the west that naturally burn fairly often. If you see lots of manzanita, for example, the ecology of the area is adapted for large forest fires, they must happen reasonably often. Maybe not the best place for a new tract housing development. But we build out into those areas more now anyway. :-\
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"Let me illiterate that it's often the same talking heads on here that seem to point to AGW as the direct and sole cause of Sandy."

I keep seeing this claim being made (the bold face part at least) and I know it is absolutely not true. It has been pointed out previously that anyone reading the blog carefully (Dr. M's part or the comments for that matter) would also know it is not true, yet the claim continues to be made. So to sort of fix things I'll make the wild exaggerated claim that people keep saying has been made already (though it has not) so the people saying that the wild exaggerated claim has been made will not look silly.

... global warming is the direct and sole cause of sandy ...

Please note that I am making this statement outside of any context, so please do not quote me on it since you would be quoting me out of context.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6031
590. yoboi
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


It's about the conditions that help them get really out of hand. I mean, we've always had forest fires, but as somebody living in the rather dry west, the scale of them is _absolutely_ linked to climate. Year to year, though there are always _some_ fires, our fire seasons really depend on the weather patterns.

The worst is when we have a wet season followed by a few years of severe drought -- lots of understory growth of smaller plants, which all dries up and hangs out. Perfect fuel.

Most of our fires here are started by lightning, by the by. There are occasional human caused forest fires, but dry lightning storms have started most of our worst ones that I can recall. I have a friend at CalFIRE who dreads the lightning storms up on the dry slopes.


i was just using data from the US fire admin....almost half caused by humans was arson the rest accident.
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
Quoting yoboi:


i did not know a forest fire are considered a climate event because 9 out of 10 forest fires are caused by humans...


It's about the conditions that help them get really out of hand. I mean, we've always had forest fires, but as somebody living in the rather dry west, the scale of them is _absolutely_ linked to climate. Year to year, though there are always _some_ fires, our fire seasons really depend on the weather patterns.

The worst is when we have a wet season followed by a few years of severe drought -- lots of understory growth of smaller plants, which all dries up and hangs out. Perfect fuel.

Most of our fires here are started by lightning, by the by. There are occasional human caused forest fires, but dry lightning storms have started most of our worst ones that I can recall. I have a friend at CalFIRE who dreads the lightning storms up on the dry slopes.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Oh, hydrus. Wanted to say thanks for posting this news. G;lad to see Californians continue to address air quality problems. I remember an August in mid-1970s east of Los Angeles being stopped at a stop light with smog so thick I couldn't be sure the light was red or green. True story. (Add: SoCal skies have improved a great deal since then.)

565. ILwthrfan 4:31 PM GMT on November 14, 2012
Thanks. That's interesting.

I'm not sure what other cultures held a Noah's Ark story, but I do know the Hawaiian pre-Christian beliefs had one where the Ark landed on Maui.
...

Now I must activate my real world life. 'Bye.

Yes. It was much worse then. It is amazing how much things have improved, but there is much more to do.
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587. wxmod

David Keith of Harvard University said of GEOENGINEERING (reflecting sunlight away from the earth's surface to reduce global warming):
"the technology involved is 'frighteningly easy'. If we want to cut the rate of global warming by half in 2020, we'd just need two or three military aircrafts, putting 20,000 tons of sulfur in the upper atmosphere every year (much less than is polluted every year), and add more every year to offset the carbon being added."

Link:http://forwardthinking.pcmag.com/none/304890-geoe ngineering-the-planet-to-solve-global-warming-conc eivable-but-controversial
Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1758
586. yoboi
Quoting percylives:


As someone wrote recently global warming cannot be classified as a direct cause of Sandy but rather a systemic cause.

Global warming has so altered the entire climate system that storms like Sandy become more likely. This is the much more logical and supportable assumption.

As far as the CA "cap and trade" system being initiated why not use a direct fossil fuel carbon tax coupled with a fossil fuel dividend paid back to the entire population. Done nationwide this would use all the market forces to change behavior. People would seek to stay away from fossil fuels as much as possible to maximize their "earnings" by not paying as much tax while still earning the dividend. Let the other guy pay. If the tax was charged as the fossil fuel came out of the ground all industry, including the fossil fuel industry, would have to pay the tax. It would just be another cost passed on by industry to the final user of the fossil fuel. The cost might become part of an airline ticket or part of a bicycle but would be paid by the final consumer. The free market system with this small twist would do the job. A small percentage of the tax collected could be kept by the government to manage the system but the vast majority would be returned to the populace as an incentive to further cut fossil fuel use.

For if we don't solve this problem, we're wasting time on the rest of them.


you lost me with letting the goverment to manage the funds....
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
Quoting ILwthrfan:


But....example "Story of Noah's Arc". Look at all the different Cultures around the world that had same general theme story, all which were separated by distances in which travel was very limited as well as contact. I would go out to say that there something very factual about Noah's Arc. When you have that great of number of a statistic sample (in the hundreds) of Cultures all being nearly independent of one another all stating the same general theme. Then you have actual data saying this...


LINK TO SITE

Now we are seeing these type of things popping up...The Yonaguni Monument off the coast of Japan, which was last above sea level at the least around 10,500 BC. When we reconstruct the coastline back then we can see that there a half dozen or so "ancient sunken cities" that would have lied near or on the coast back at that time.

We are using science to in fact show truth to some of stories in the Bible, so I would not dispute them as nothing, but rather look at them to be tested
10,500 B.C. predate Noahs Flood by a huge period of time. Floods are common now, but there were monumental floods the further back one goes toward the previous ice age. The Scablands of the Northwestern U.S. are one such flood due to ice and the damming of meltwater. The Med has had floods that may rival the Massoula Lake Floods.In the early 1940s, geologist Joseph Pardee first identified these wavy landforms as ripples not unlike those seen in the bed of a stream. No one had thought of them as ripples before because of their outlandish size: up to 35 feet high and several hundred feet between crests. The ripples provide perhaps the strongest evidence for monstrous ancient floods. Giant ripple marks. Long gravel ridges formed by the powerful currents that flowed across Markle Pass, near Camas Hot Springs, Montana. The view is toward the northwest.
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Does anyone have a feeling that something very bad is going to happen very soon....like within a month?
Maybe its just me....

Anyway...Even the Noreaster on the Euro is lackluster with snowfall amounts so I wouldnt count on too much snow etc.
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Quoting Bielle:


(Boldface mine)

I am not sure what "illiterate" means aside from "unable to read" (which doesn't appear to be the way it is being used here) but I do understand the rest of the sentence. I don't read every comment on this blog every day, but I have yet to see anyone who posts here regularly ("the same talking heads") who claims AGW was the "direct and sole cause" of Sandy; not a one. This type of exaggeration weakens any case you may have.


+1000 :)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1230
Well,time keeps going by without any mention of the Bermuda area so I assume NHC is not seeing the system developing into at least a subtropical system.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14266
580. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


We do have measures of extreme weather that are already showing trends. This isn't a forecast, it's probably already happening. The climate extremes index is one objective measure to look at, as well as the reports from the world's largest re-insurance company, Munich-Re, suggesting that natural disasters are on the rise, even when normalized by GDP.




i did not know a forest fire are considered a climate event because 9 out of 10 forest fires are caused by humans...
Member Since: August 25, 2010 Posts: 7 Comments: 2337
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Terrific Point, Illinois Weather Fan. Let me illiterate that it's often the same talking heads on here that seem to point to AGW as the direct and sole cause of Sandy. That is unscientific. Rather, it's more like AGW could have and likely have contributed to Sandy in one way or another. And you illustrated a very fine point in addressing the Sea surface temperatures quite nicely. However, let's be careful, because we also have seen those temperatures far above average like this in years past that didn't produce Sandy.

Great point, IWF. How's the weather in Mattoon Charleston area? Good I'm assuming?


(Boldface mine)

I am not sure what "illiterate" means aside from "unable to read" (which doesn't appear to be the way it is being used here) but I do understand the rest of the sentence. I don't read every comment on this blog every day, but I have yet to see anyone who posts here regularly ("the same talking heads") who claims AGW was the "direct and sole cause" of Sandy; not a one. This type of exaggeration weakens any case you may have.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 615
Quoting percylives:


As someone wrote recently global warming cannot be classified as a direct cause of Sandy but rather a systemic cause.

Global warming has so altered the entire climate system that storms like Sandy become more likely. This is the much more logical and supportable assumption.

As far as the CA "cap and trade" system being initiated why not use a direct fossil fuel carbon tax coupled with a fossil fuel dividend paid back to the entire population. Done nationwide this would use all the market forces to change behavior. People would seek to stay away from fossil fuels as much as possible to maximize their "earnings" by not paying as much tax while still earning the dividend. Let the other guy pay. If the tax was charged as the fossil fuel came out of the ground all industry, including the fossil fuel industry, would have to pay the tax. It would just be another cost passed on by industry to the final user of the fossil fuel. The cost might become part of an airline ticket or part of a bicycle but would be paid by the final consumer. The free market system with this small twist would do the job. A small percentage of the tax collected could be kept by the government to manage the system but the vast majority would be returned to the populace as an incentive to further cut fossil fuel use.

For if we don't solve this problem, we're wasting time on the rest of them.



Excellant idea!
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1230
As I've said earlier this year the gulf stream will play a big role becuase it was much above average.And look what happened?.We had a warm winter a hot spring and then a blazing summer.So why is it a surprise that the gulf stream is that warm for this time of year?.There shouldn't be really.That will also help fuel these coastal storms and hopefully send me some nice snows here during Dec-Jan-Feb.We really need some which is why D.C was in a drought for most of the year until October really.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
6 to 10day

8 to 14day
Looks like a Warm Thanksgiving for most of the U.S. if the Outlook holds true. Dry and nice here in South Texas, haven't needed the A.C. past couple of days.
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Quoting Xulonn:
Extreme Denial - A thorough take-down - with good graphics - of a post at Anthony Watts' AGW/CC denialist website. It was written by WUWT "regular" author "justthefacts," and titled "A Big Picture Look At “Earth’s Temperature” – “Extreme Weather” Update"

I find Tamino's graphics of increased severe weather and and related events interesting, because I've read elsewhere that there is no hard evidence of significant increases in AGW/CC related events and disasters. (Again, we're talking about sets of events, not individual events.)


We do have measures of extreme weather that are already showing trends. This isn't a forecast, it's probably already happening. The climate extremes index is one objective measure to look at, as well as the reports from the world's largest re-insurance company, Munich-Re, suggesting that natural disasters are on the rise, even when normalized by GDP.


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Quoting MrMixon:

(PS - happy GIS day! I'll be celebrating by FINALLY submitting my application for GISP certification today).


So it is! Cheers to that and to the cert! I wonder what cocktail is most appropriate for toasting GIS. Hmmm.

And that's a gorgeous image, packed with info. Thanks for sharing it.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

For someone who plusses Neapolitan every chance she can get, um, er, I think we know what's going on here.


Your obsession with the man doesn't just border on creepy, it is creepy.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


But....example "Story of Noah's Arc". Look at all the different Cultures around the world that had same general theme story, all which were separated by distances in which travel was very limited as well as contact. I would go out to say that there something very factual about Noah's Arc. When you have that great of number of a statistic sample (in the hundreds) of Cultures all being nearly independent of one another all stating the same general theme. Then you have actual data saying this...


LINK TO SITE

Now we are seeing these type of things popping up...The Yonaguni Monument off the coast of Japan, which was last above sea level at the least around 10,500 BC. When we reconstruct the coastline back then we can see that there a half dozen or so "ancient sunken cities" that would have lied near or on the coast back at that time.

We are using science to in fact show truth to some of stories in the Bible, so I would not dispute them as nothing, but rather look at them to be tested

There's a proverb that says: "When the last tree is cut, when the last river has been poisoned, when the last fish has been caught, then we will find out that we can't eat money."
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Terrific Point, Illinois Weather Fan. Let me illiterate that it's often the same talking heads on here that seem to point to AGW as the direct and sole cause of Sandy. That is unscientific. Rather, it's more like AGW could have and likely have contributed to Sandy in one way or another. And you illustrated a very fine point in addressing the Sea surface temperatures quite nicely. ...


As someone wrote recently global warming cannot be classified as a direct cause of Sandy but rather a systemic cause.

Global warming has so altered the entire climate system that storms like Sandy become more likely. This is the much more logical and supportable assumption.

As far as the CA "cap and trade" system being initiated why not use a direct fossil fuel carbon tax coupled with a fossil fuel dividend paid back to the entire population. Done nationwide this would use all the market forces to change behavior. People would seek to stay away from fossil fuels as much as possible to maximize their "earnings" by not paying as much tax while still earning the dividend. Let the other guy pay. If the tax was charged as the fossil fuel came out of the ground all industry, including the fossil fuel industry, would have to pay the tax. It would just be another cost passed on by industry to the final user of the fossil fuel. The cost might become part of an airline ticket or part of a bicycle but would be paid by the final consumer. The free market system with this small twist would do the job. A small percentage of the tax collected could be kept by the government to manage the system but the vast majority would be returned to the populace as an incentive to further cut fossil fuel use.

For if we don't solve this problem, we're wasting time on the rest of them.
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Portrait of Global Aerosols





This portrait of global aerosols was produced by a GEOS-5 simulation at a 10-kilometer resolution. Dust (red) is lifted from the surface, sea salt (blue) swirls inside cyclones, smoke (green) rises from fires, and sulfate particles (white) stream from volcanoes and fossil fuel emissions.

Source: NASA

Click the word NASA above to go to the source page, or click image above for the (very large) full size version of this beautiful map.

(PS - happy GIS day! I'll be celebrating by FINALLY submitting my application for GISP certification today).
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Quoting hydrus:
That is a good move for California, and they need to do it more than any other state for the obvious reasons. This is how L.A. looks through a layer of smog.
Oh, hydrus. Wanted to say thanks for posting this news. G;lad to see Californians continue to address air quality problems. I remember an August in mid-1970s east of Los Angeles being stopped at a stop light with smog so thick I couldn't be sure the light was red or green. True story. (Add: SoCal skies have improved a great deal since then.)

565. ILwthrfan 4:31 PM GMT on November 14, 2012
Thanks. That's interesting.

I'm not sure what other cultures held a Noah's Ark story, but I do know the Hawaiian pre-Christian beliefs had one where the Ark landed on Maui.
...

Now I must activate my real world life. 'Bye.

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New blog coming..
I can feel it (I think thats what I feel..LOL)
Wait for it..Wait for it..j/k :)
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Quoting goosegirl1:



Give the ick jobs to the mothers- we are immune to poo and ick of all kinds!


Ha! It's true. If moms didn't develop this amazing immunity, we'd probably none of us survive infancy, because man, babies... they have some ick. Good thing they're cute. ;)

For me, it's been horses, actually -- muck enough stalls, take care of enough very bloody small wounds, get bucked off into a fresh pile... you get over it. It all washes off.
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Quoting hydrus:
That is a good move for California, and they need to do it more than any other state for the obvious reasons. This is how L.A. looks through a layer of smog.


Yep. Having driven through there a lot of times -- the whole area just E of LA, man, I don't know how people stand it. Grey strip malls, grey freeways, grey air. I know lots of folks who grew up down there, some who still live there, it seems like it just doesn't occur to them. It's normal.

For me, every time I go down there, though I think a lot of the landscape is pretty in its own ways and so on, I cannot _wait_ to get out of that smog. And it's not like I live somewhere that doesn't have any, it's just a whole different level.
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Quoting AegirsGal:
Ever heard of Hydrogen and Helium? I do not believe the bible is anything but a book written by men. If you choose to believe it is something more, that is your prerogative. To bring it up as anything other than what it is in a scientific forum such as this, seems inflammatory since it lacks any basis in science.


But....example "Story of Noah's Ark". Look at all the different Cultures around the world that had same general theme story, all which were separated by distances in which travel was very limited as well as contact. I would go out to say that there something very factual about Noah's Ark. When you have that great of number of a statistic sample (in the hundreds) of Cultures all being nearly independent of one another all stating the same general theme. Then you have actual data saying this...


LINK TO SITE

Now we are seeing these type of things popping up...The Yonaguni Monument off the coast of Japan, which was last above sea level at the least around 10,500 BC. When we reconstruct the coastline back then we can see that there a half dozen or so "ancient sunken cities" that would have lied near or on the coast back at that time.

We are using science to in fact show truth to some of stories in the Bible, so I would not dispute them as nothing, but rather look at them to be tested
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Heck yeah! Honestly, if one of these could also work with varied animal waste, this household would be all set. Not like I don't have to clean up the poo anyway.

And yeah, having some way to largely plumb whatever into the system would make more people likely to use it (and probably be safer in the long run, since lots of folks aren't, um, up on sanitary handling of such things.) I was a country kid and I'm pretty unfazed by all kinds of stuff, but most people have a pretty strong ick reaction.

It's a cool idea, anyway. Hope they can get it to work efficiently, I'd totally be on it if it were affordable and efficient.



Give the ick jobs to the mothers- we are immune to poo and ick of all kinds!
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1230
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Barefootontherocks...

"No proof global warming caused Sandy to be as big, destructive or unusual as she was."



I would go out to say to that those Gulf Stream waters pointing north were a good 4-5 Celsius above average where Sandy Crossed from the Outer Banks of North Carolina up to New Jersey. This was the same area in which she begin transitioning into an extra tropical system. Those waters being 4-5 Celsius above normal ARE certainly one MAJOR factor in increasing the frequency of Sandy type storms to that region. There are obviously other factors as well. We just don't know to what degree of the affect could be. That is something we know about in the decades to come.

The warmer the water the more energy available to be transferred during the process. Basic Law of Thermodynamics supports that hypothesis.

I think the biggest factor was the block near Greenland - which you could relate to Arctic ice melt this summer, yadda, yadda yadda. As you say, just hypotheses at this point.
...

Thanks for the replies this morning, bloggers. Time for me to fly.
:)
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Quoting LargoFl:
with 14 or more trillion dollars in the red..im sure we are going to see taxes we never would have thought possible in the near future


I agree. I know that it will be hard for families, but if the tax hits the right people, and the rest of us try to conserve to reduce the tax load, I am all in favor of this. I hope there are no die-hard coal people here to read this... carbon taxes are extremely unpopular in WV :)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1230
Quoting etxwx:


*raises hand* I will! I already have a compost bucket and am a whiz at shoveling manure. :-D

Seriously, I'm guessing a household waste reactor could be plumbed into the system. Kinda like a septic tank. We already have ways of pumping out black water from motor homes, etc. so I think we could work out the sanitary part.

And if the smell is a concern, have you ever been around an oilfield or refinery? Not pleasant at all. Old timey Texans call it the smell of money, but it still reeks. I'll take the smell of manure anytime. ;-)


Heck yeah! Honestly, if one of these could also work with varied animal waste, this household would be all set. Not like I don't have to clean up the poo anyway.

And yeah, having some way to largely plumb whatever into the system would make more people likely to use it (and probably be safer in the long run, since lots of folks aren't, um, up on sanitary handling of such things.) I was a country kid and I'm pretty unfazed by all kinds of stuff, but most people have a pretty strong ick reaction.

It's a cool idea, anyway. Hope they can get it to work efficiently, I'd totally be on it if it were affordable and efficient.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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