Despite a cool October, U.S. on track for its warmest year on record
For the first time in sixteen months, the contiguous U.S. has had a month with below-average temperatures, with October 2012 ranking as the 44th coldest (73rd warmest) October since record keeping began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Temperature extremes were scarce in October, as no states had a top-ten warmest or coldest October. Despite the cool October temperatures, the year-to-date period of January - October was the warmest such period on record for the contiguous U.S.--a remarkable 1.1°F above the previous record. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of November - Decembers ever seen, 2012 will beat out 1998 for warmest year. The first ten days of November have been warmer than average, and the next two weeks are predicted to also average out on the warm side, so it appears likely that we will have to have our coldest December on record in order to keep 2012 from setting the new mark. The November 2011 - October 2012 period was the warmest such 12-month period on record for the contiguous U.S., and the seven warmest 12-month periods since record keeping began in 1895 have all ended during 2012.
Texas had their 9th driest October on record last month, and Washington, Michigan Ohio, Maine, and Maryland had top-ten wettest Octobers; Delaware had their wettest October on record, thanks to rains from Hurricane Sandy. The area of the U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought shrank from 65% at the beginning of October to 59% by November 6, with drought conditions improving across parts of the Midwest and Northeast, but worsening across portions of the Northern Rockies.
Figure 1. Year-to-date temperatures for the contiguous U.S. through October, compared to the previous record warmest years in U.S. history. The year-to-date period (thick black line) is 1.1°F warmer than the previous record, set in 1998. Even if the remainder of 2012 ranks historically in the coldest one-third of November - Decembers on record (dark blue line), 2012 will beat out 1998 for the warmest year on record. The data for 2012 are preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Second most extreme January - October period on record
The year-to-date period was the second most extreme on record in the U.S., according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI was 38% during the year-to-date January - October period. This was exceeded only in 1998 (41%), and was nearly double the average value of 20%. Remarkably, 85% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first ten months of 2012, and 76% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. Both are records. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 28%, which was the 7th greatest since 1910. Only droughts in 2002, 1954 - 1956, and during the Dust Bowl years of 1931 and 1934 were more extreme for the January - October period. Heavy 1-day downpours were below average, though, with 8% of nation experiencing top-10% extremes in October 2012, compared to an average of 10%.
Figure 2. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - October shows that 2012 had the second most extreme first ten months of the year on record, with 38% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
The Atlantic is quiet
An area of disturbed weather about 1100 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has been torn apart by wind shear of 30 - 50 knots. In their 1 pm EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 0% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday. An area of low pressure is predicted to develop just north of Bermuda on Wednesday, and the GFS model predicts that this low could become a subtropical cyclone as moves north-northeastward out to sea late in the week.
Have a great weekend, and I'll be back on Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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This is the thanks I get for trying to be optimistic?
WELL FORGET YOU
Lol in all serious though let me enjoy the last few weeks. Sheesh.
Though with regards to the BC quake coinciding with the onset of Hurricane Sandy, wouldn't it be logical to say that with climate change increasing the number of extreme weather events, more severe weather events will coincide with large earthquakes simply because well, there's more severe weather? The same can be said during last summer's hurriquake.
And the storm the GFS is showing is impacting more New England and not so much the Mid Atlantic? Not to mention it's weaker than Sandy.
Both presidents from Illinois, interesting parallell.
Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing throughout portions of Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama. Pet owners should take precautions to protect outdoor animals from the freezing conditions. The cold could also harm sensitive vegetation that is left outside, unprotected. Overnight temperatures later this week are expected to be a little milder.
Hard to describe ECMWF 00z version of Nor'easter -- massive gyre more like it. Blocks do weird stuff. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue
5 hRyan Maue@RyanMaue
GFS 00z hits repeat button Sun/Mon: 1040 mb blocking high and a Nor'easter coastal low. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue
ECMWF takes deepening low up 70 west.. further east but stronger with thanskgiving week threat http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi
5 hJoe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi
Model shows 35-50 kt winds in coastal waters Monday http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi
5 hJoe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi
GFS still has pre Thanksgiving day coastal problem for ne beaches. Prolonged onshore flow into Sandy ravaged areas
Does that mean I get to feel it first? I'll write a blog about how the start of the end of the world is. LOL
Honestly though, I'd say that's a long shot at best. We're just about wrapping this season up right now I think.
Did the Mayans specify a time zone?
RT @nwsboston: Worcester airport 61 at 6:06 and 47 at 6:54. Eastern MA and RI have this kind of temp drop to look forward to.
00z at 48hrs:
06z GFS at 42hrs:
Monday
Clear. High of 73F. Winds from the North at 10 to 15 mph.
Monday Night
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 54F. Winds from the North at 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday
Partly cloudy. High of 72F. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Night
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 52F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 15 mph.
Wednesday
Clear. High of 72F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night
Clear. Low of 52F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday
Clear. High of 72F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy. Fog overnight. Low of 52F. Winds from the NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Friday
Partly cloudy. High of 72F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
Clear. Fog overnight. Low of 52F. Winds from the NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
The 0z also showed a TS in the Caribbean at the end of the run. Just this run also had a strong low over the Great Lakes.
Is Dr. M OK or just busy. He is usually very good about Monday posts.
Chichenitza Standard time for EOW.
So Valery might get her wish after all!
Well they specified a date. Is it 20/12/2012 Mayan/S Mexico time?
That would be 21/12/2012 here
Pattern is consistent and now so is the guidance on a nor'easter developing by the middle of next week. The exact track is still hard to determine this far out. It is likely going to be close enough to the coast to cause Thanksgiving holiday travel trouble for some of the east coast airports. Stay tuned.
Flip Flop Florida is going to have a hard time cutting out the counties on the coast that can see climate change and the conservative center and pan handle that make up the other 49.99999%.
I wonder if states will renegotiate their water treaties with states that remain in the Union.
Yeah, funny. Ha-ha... :\
RT @capitalweather: Rain showers continue thru late morning and COLD. Temps only in low 40s. Reports of a sleet mix in Leesburg!
Have a great day everyone.
can you give us a reference so we can look it up?
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