Sandy the 11th U.S. billion-dollar disaster of 2012
Devastating Hurricane Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report. This puts 2012 in second place for most U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters behind 2011, when NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) counted fourteen such disasters. AON Benfield rated seventeen events as billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011, so the actual number of such disasters has considerable uncertainty depending upon who is doing the estimates. NCDC has not yet released their official figures for 2012's billion-dollar weather disasters, and we might expect that their total could be 20% lower than AON Benfield's, judging by what happened in 2011. This would give 2012 nine billion-dollar weather disasters, which would still put 2011 in second place for most billion-dollar weather disasters. Although damages due to weather-related disasters are increasing, we cannot yet say climate change is to partially to blame. There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change, as I explain in my January 2012 post, "Damage losses and climate change". We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that--such as the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer.
Figure 1. The escalators down to the South Ferry subway station in Lower Manhattan's Financial District lie flooded in the wake of Hurricane Sandy's storm surge on October 29, 2012. Total economic damage from Hurricane Sandy has been estimated at $30 - $50 billion by EQECAT. Image credit: New York MTA and Associated Press.
Figure 2. The U.S. has experienced eleven weather-related disasters costing at least $1 billion in 2012, according to data taken from the AON Benfield October 2012 Catastrophe Report. AON Benfield has not made a damage estimate for the 2012 Midwest drought, but according to National Crop Insurance Services, crop insurance losses alone will total $20 billion. The total cost of the drought could be more than $77 billion, said Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August. As Nick Sundt of the WWF summarizes in a nice blog post, this year will probably be the second most costly year since 1980 in terms of billion-dollar weather-related disasters.
Figure 3. Number of weather-related U.S. billion-dollar disasters per year (blue bars) from 1980 - 2012, and the total cost of these disasters (red and dark blue lines, with the red line showing the inflation-adjusted costs.) Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
Winter Storm Brutus bringing blizzard conditions to Montana
Winter Storm Brutus is bringing blizzard conditions to Northeast Montana, with heavy snow and high winds that have gusted to 45 mph. Brutus has dumped a widespread area of 4 - 6 inches of snow over large portions of Montana since Thursday afternoon, with 7 - 10 inches reported in the Great Falls area and 17" in the mountains near Glacier National Park. According to the Glasgow, MT NWS Facebook page, the current storm has the potential to be a top-ten snowfall event for the area, with records going back 115 years. The storm will affect Montana and western North Dakota through Saturday morning, then push north-northeastwards into Canada.
Top ten 2-day snow events in Glasgow, Montana history:
1 15.0" 4/18/1896
2 14.3" 12/27/2003
3 14.1" 4/ 3/1940, 4/ 2/1940
5 14.0" 11/19/1941
6 13.4" 10/13/2008
7 13.3" 11/ 6/2000
8 13.0" 10/12/2008, 4/ 9/1995, 1/26/1916
The Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet
There are still three weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, and the way this year has gone, I wouldn't be surprised to see the season's 20th named storm--Tropical Storm Valerie--sometime this month. One potential candidate is a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms that has developed about 800 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa. However, wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and any development should be slow. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, do not develop the disturbance, and show it drifting slowly to the northwest over the next few days. In their 7 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday morning.
A better candidate to become Valerie is an area of low pressure that is predicted to develop between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. The GFS model shows this low becoming a subtropical cyclone as it gets pulled to the north or north-northeast late next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I was too young to remember details about that winter. I can't forget the president's day snowstorm I had in 2011, about a foot of snow fell.
So, it sounds like it upsets you that it gets noticed that your civic leaders try to legislate awareness of rising sea levels out of existence?
Pff!~ That explains alot!
Please, though, don't whine here when the next ten year event sea storm glubs your coast like a thousand year event!
You have a nice day too.
LOL.
One thing I noticed with this snowstorm here in Montana these last couple 'a days: It seems to have taken an unusual amount of time for the ground beneath the snow to freeze ... this made for a misery of slush beneath the snow. Just one observation, but still, the question in the offing is "Why so much?"
Well, pretty duh: There is more heat content in the ground on this occasion.
Then it becomes natural enough to wonder if the global warming models take into consideration the heat capacity of the ground.
My mass transit situation is still a real mess. My area fared pretty well during the nor'easter and the snow is melting quickly, though, so hopefully we'll continue to see some good progress.
I could care less about climate change..Ice melting ANYWHERE is not going to convince me..NC has a lot to work on in coming around to a changing america that I can agree with..its the name calling that I cant stand on this blog..my priority along with the national exit polls show that climate change or GW is NOT a priority on most american minds..60% of americans are worried about our economy..10 years from now? heck tomorrow isnt promised to anyone..its sad that people live in this world and worry about a fictional hollywood movie tidal wave taking them out instead of focusing on their families and how to provide for them now in the present sense..you have a good day as well!
jus a swirl over the ocean...
Which, if you think about it, that pretty well in itself explains why people of genius level intelligence are always going insane: People too stupid to breathe out there making decisions.
Average IQ, by definition, is 100. Each standard deviation is about 10 points. "Retards" (I forget the PC term for that at the moment, sorry) are in the '70s. Average doctor and lawyer about 120- 140. Genius is east of 140 .... 150... 170 ... imagine how frustrating it must be to have your doctor and lawyer as clueless relative to yourself as a retard is to an average person.
Any person with actual awareness in NC must feel as though they have inadvertently incarnated in a Kafka novel. Poor things!
Well, if it was the NC House that tired to legislate out of existence awareness of rising sea levels, or any science that might conceivably indicate that, well, you'd say "Ehn!~ ...It's just the House."
But the Senate???
If you apply the probes of any OMG meter to that one, the needle races off to the Red Zone.
Not even tearful Jesus on the Wing can intercede .
Right now what ever climate change is doing it's tolerable.As long as it doesn't reach into it's 100's in October-March and with the Potomac river running into my house my priorities are family paying bills ect..
ABNT20 KNHC 101749
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAS WEAKENED TO A TROUGH...AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Formed November 24, 1950
Dissipated November 30, 1950
Maximum amount 57 inches (1,400 mm)*
Lowest pressure 978 mbar (28.88 inHg)
Damages $66.7 million (1950 dollars)[1]
Fatalities 353
Areas affected Eastern Third of the United States and Southeast Canada..Excerpt WIKI..The Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 was a large extratropical cyclone which moved through the Eastern United States, causing significant winds, heavy rains east of the Appalachians, and blizzard conditions along the western slopes of the mountain chain. Hurricane-force winds, peaking at 110mph in Concord, New Hampshire and 160mph in the New England highlands, disrupted power to 1,000,000 customers during the event. In all, the storm impacted 22 states, killing 353, and creating US$66.7 million in damage (1950 dollars).At the time, U.S. insurance companies paid more money out to their policy holders for damage resulting from this cyclone than for any other previous storm or hurricane.
What you said Wash is what sensible and sane people think..providing for their families..I bet Montana and Nea got the DVD of Day After Tomorrow on repeat on their DVD players on a 88 inch screen in high definition
I'm out for awhile..
There was an infamous November storm on this day in 1975. It was a very strong storm that affected the Great Lakes and sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald.
From the Detroit NWS:
On November 10, 1975 an infamous intense fall storm centered over the Great Lakes sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior. 29 crew men lost their lives because of this storm.
Actually its good people aren't that worried about Climate Change. What good will it do for people to panic about something which is out of their control? It's good for people to be aware of it, and do their part to be more eco-friendly, but people shouldn't be panicking over GW, people are already stressed out enough as it is.
1 mSevere Studios@severestudios
Heavy snowfall rates up to 1" per hour for WRN SD... S-CNTRL ND... FAR NWRN NEB http://1.usa.gov/fJjZ9H?SPC
Not exactly...
One's decision making choices, or capabilities cannot be measured in intellect. The ability to make wise choices is not the same as intellectual comprehension. Throughout the ages, many smart people have made poor decisions. Politicians making a decision to ban reporting of sea level rise may be due to agenda, denial, or many other things. However, it does not make them stupid. As I said, there have been brilliant minds in history that were bent on foolish ideas. The path of one's life, and their decisions they make, is independent of intellectual capacity, and really is not related. Of course it's not to say a very intelligent person can't be wise, but it doesn't mean they will be. There is just no dependence on each other.
A severe thunderstorm is moving through the northern half of Cook County, Ill. including the Chicago area.
See animated cold front motion on my blog.
It's because they are more worked up about Climate Change and therefore they assume everyone else should too. I don't want to be critical but it's the truth. People have enough things in their lives to worry about as it is, we can't throw burdens upon them which is out of their control. I'm concerned over the destruction of natural Florida. However I can't be a hero of Florida nature and save it all. I can do my part. But I'm just a human. We live in a world where increasingly people are stressed out over Global issues which one man can't control, meanwhile their own family and personal life is getting out of control.
It's trying to fix problems from the wrong approach, it doesn't work. It creates stress, and division.
This is part of the problem. Thinking that these issues are somehow black and white and not all interconnected. Climate change can and will have an effect on all these worries, whether you want to think climate change is man made or not. The short sightedness of only concerning ourselves with immediacies instead of looking towards long term solutions combined with a lack of seeing how the puzzle pieces interact and fit together is only going to compound these problems further.
Caution: The following link may expose the viewer to protocol-structured observation and fact, potentially leading to scientific ideation, which may or may not be legal in your state.
Link
I agree.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...S-CNTRL ND...FAR NWRN NEB
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 101811Z - 102215Z
SUMMARY...BAND OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN SD...S-CNTRL ND AND
FAR NWRN NEB. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR ARE LIKELY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF PERIODS OF 2 INCHES/HR.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM SWRN CO NEWD INTO ERN SD/FAR WRN MN. TWO SURFACE LOWS
ARE LOCATED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA...ONE CENTERED OVER SWRN CO AND
THE OTHER OVER E-CNTRL SD. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW WITHIN A BAND
ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS WRN SD. ALSO OF NOTE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
WAS TOO SLOW WITH THE ONSET OF THIS BAND.
SURFACE THETA-E FIELDS SHOW A WARM AIR ADVECTION NOSE FROM CNTRL IA
NWWD INTO CNTRL SD. THIS TRAJECTORY FAVORS ADDITIONAL MOIST
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS ONGOING ACROSS
CNTRL NEB WITH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION LIKELY PHASING WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG JET STREAK /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NWRN NM
NEWD INTO WRN NEB/. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF
THE SNOW BAND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT
MOVES EWD. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HOUR WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE ANTICIPATED.
..MOSIER.. 11/10/2012
Sure... but this is a weather-related discussion group. It struck me as lunatic in the extreme that a state senate would even consider attempting to legislate that scientific observation of sea level be made against the law.
and, revisiting your other post, dear boy, you misrepresented the facts, I should say. It wasn't 100 feet, it was only 40. It wasn't dead and gone, but not heard from till next June. And it wasn't about you, dear heart, it was to politicians in general, the hub of the universe for which is WDC, that the remark referred to in that pre-election period.
Sigh~
Anyone who isn't in panic mode over GW and CC either doesn't have any children and grandchildren or they've been drinking from the same jug that had the Republicans confidently stating they would win by 80 Electoral Votes. The first step in solving a problem is recognizing it exists.
Stating it is out of our control is a cop-out. The key is in your hand; don't turn it. The wall switch is under your finger; don't flip it. We are all responsible. Now let's solve this problem.
Link
You are still missing the point. It isn't about an ordering of priorities on your list of things to worry about. They are all connected. It is a multi-variable equation.
I'm out for the after noon.
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