Sandy the 11th U.S. billion-dollar disaster of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2012

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Devastating Hurricane Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report. This puts 2012 in second place for most U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters behind 2011, when NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) counted fourteen such disasters. AON Benfield rated seventeen events as billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011, so the actual number of such disasters has considerable uncertainty depending upon who is doing the estimates. NCDC has not yet released their official figures for 2012's billion-dollar weather disasters, and we might expect that their total could be 20% lower than AON Benfield's, judging by what happened in 2011. This would give 2012 nine billion-dollar weather disasters, which would still put 2011 in second place for most billion-dollar weather disasters. Although damages due to weather-related disasters are increasing, we cannot yet say climate change is to partially to blame. There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change, as I explain in my January 2012 post, "Damage losses and climate change". We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that--such as the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer.


Figure 1. The escalators down to the South Ferry subway station in Lower Manhattan's Financial District lie flooded in the wake of Hurricane Sandy's storm surge on October 29, 2012. Total economic damage from Hurricane Sandy has been estimated at $30 - $50 billion by EQECAT. Image credit: New York MTA and Associated Press.


Figure 2. The U.S. has experienced eleven weather-related disasters costing at least $1 billion in 2012, according to data taken from the AON Benfield October 2012 Catastrophe Report. AON Benfield has not made a damage estimate for the 2012 Midwest drought, but according to National Crop Insurance Services, crop insurance losses alone will total $20 billion. The total cost of the drought could be more than $77 billion, said Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August. As Nick Sundt of the WWF summarizes in a nice blog post, this year will probably be the second most costly year since 1980 in terms of billion-dollar weather-related disasters.


Figure 3. Number of weather-related U.S. billion-dollar disasters per year (blue bars) from 1980 - 2012, and the total cost of these disasters (red and dark blue lines, with the red line showing the inflation-adjusted costs.) Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Winter Storm Brutus bringing blizzard conditions to Montana
Winter Storm Brutus is bringing blizzard conditions to Northeast Montana, with heavy snow and high winds that have gusted to 45 mph. Brutus has dumped a widespread area of 4 - 6 inches of snow over large portions of Montana since Thursday afternoon, with 7 - 10 inches reported in the Great Falls area and 17" in the mountains near Glacier National Park. According to the Glasgow, MT NWS Facebook page, the current storm has the potential to be a top-ten snowfall event for the area, with records going back 115 years. The storm will affect Montana and western North Dakota through Saturday morning, then push north-northeastwards into Canada.

Top ten 2-day snow events in Glasgow, Montana history:

1 15.0" 4/18/1896
2 14.3" 12/27/2003
3 14.1" 4/ 3/1940, 4/ 2/1940
5 14.0" 11/19/1941
6 13.4" 10/13/2008
7 13.3" 11/ 6/2000
8 13.0" 10/12/2008, 4/ 9/1995, 1/26/1916

The Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet
There are still three weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, and the way this year has gone, I wouldn't be surprised to see the season's 20th named storm--Tropical Storm Valerie--sometime this month. One potential candidate is a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms that has developed about 800 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa. However, wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and any development should be slow. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, do not develop the disturbance, and show it drifting slowly to the northwest over the next few days. In their 7 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday morning.

A better candidate to become Valerie is an area of low pressure that is predicted to develop between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. The GFS model shows this low becoming a subtropical cyclone as it gets pulled to the north or north-northeast late next week.

Jeff Masters

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109. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting kwgirl:
Don't just hold the scripts, get them filled. Nothing worse than having the scripts and not being able to get the drugs.


Some states won't allow you to have over a 30 day supply of Class I narcotics .. so our prescriptions are dated ..
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Quoting MrNatural:


Naming winter storms may be harmless, but if the insurance companies treat named winter storms like named tropical storms, they can invoke the "Named storm deductible" rules. This rule is in Texas and other states. It can increase deductibles significantly. I do not see a reason to name winter storms if it is go
ing to impact homeowner insurance.


You bring up a valid point. I apologize for not qualifying my comments by saying "TWC unofficially names storms".

Other bloggers here have brought up that the current insurance qualifications are for tropical storms...but I am sure (IMHO) that the insurance companies would quickly adjust if naming winter storms were to become official. I am definitely not in favor of that outcome...lol.

I think that more weather neophytes watch TWC than any official government website. TWC IS a big name in the cable/satellite arena, so having TWC do this is not as harmful as the government naming winter storms.

I, for one, would not want my insurance rates to go up...no one does; I like my money...want to spend it on my wife and my Harley ;>P.

Thank you MrNatural
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Quoting MrNatural:
This is a link to the Office of Public Insurance from Texas. The rules and impact on deductibles from damage relating to a named storm is clear. It will cost the consumer more if the damage is from a named storm.

Link


Time will tell if TWC has shot themselves (and general public)in the foot or have raised a triumphant flag for forecasting..
We shall see..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
Quoting SyriboTigereyes:

That's a good point. But these I can not fill until at least 28 days have passed. I went through this last week. I had one due to be filled on Tuesday or Wednesday, and Sunday was too early to do it.. And then of course my pharmacy, and actually every CVS in a 5 mile radius, was out of power. Luckily, LIPA got that area up and running on Thursday and I had enough left (I try to stock up some extra of each medication, just in case) to make it until that day and was able to fill it.

I wish everyone was able to fill one extra bottle of their medication to have in a safe or something in case of emergency. But with controlled substances, that's difficult.
Yes it becomes diffcult. The standard recommendations by emergency management during hurricanes is to stock up on your drugs by one month. They have advised that you ask the doctor for an extra script. You might have to come out of pocket, but it would be worth it. In the keys after Hurricane Andrew, we were having drug shortages. I don't know if the trucks weren't making it through or because our communications were down for a while. Pretty touch and go if you need it for your heart like my mother did. When she evacuated for Wilma my brother was worried about getting her drugs until I reminded him that they have Walgreen's up where he lived. And that I planned on in case of such a situation.
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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:

That's a good point. But these I can not fill until at least 28 days have passed. I went through this last week. I had one due to be filled on Tuesday or Wednesday, and Sunday was too early to do it.. And then of course my pharmacy, and actually every CVS in a 5 mile radius, was out of power. Luckily, LIPA got that area up and running on Thursday and I had enough left (I try to stock up some extra of each medication, just in case) to make it until that day and was able to fill it.

I wish everyone was able to fill one extra bottle of their medication to have in a safe or something in case of emergency. But with controlled substances, that's difficult.


I have extras also..
Just makes sense if you can..
No way on the controlled though..
I do however rotate them as to keep the freshest in reserve..
Dr.'s advice to me..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
This is a link to the Office of Public Insurance from Texas. The rules and impact on deductibles from damage relating to a named storm is clear. It will cost the consumer more if the damage is from a named storm.

Link
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103. N3EG
Because of the refraction of the water in the subway tunnel, I thought those escalators in the picture were skee-ball lanes.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Don't just hold the scripts, get them filled. Nothing worse than having the scripts and not being able to get the drugs.

That's a good point. But these I can not fill until at least 28 days have passed. I went through this last week. I had one due to be filled on Tuesday or Wednesday, and Sunday was too early to do it.. And then of course my pharmacy, and actually every CVS in a 5 mile radius, was out of power. Luckily, LIPA got that area up and running on Thursday and I had enough left (I try to stock up some extra of each medication, just in case) to make it until that day and was able to fill it.

I wish everyone was able to fill one extra bottle of their medication to have in a safe or something in case of emergency. But with controlled substances, that's difficult.
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Quoting RetiredChiefP:


UUGGHH...time to weigh in with my humble opinion.

Thank you CyberTeddy for your comments.

First, who cares if TWC is using this for a marketing strategy. Does it really hurt anyone for TWC to make more money? The pieces of pie don't get smaller, the pie gets bigger (Reaganomics {Voodoo Economics} quote...yes, I am from that era). TWC makes more money=more people get jobs=more money spent=more taxes to U.S. and state coffers=more tax money spent on...whatever...maybe reconstruction, disaster relief, disaster preparedness, IDK...sweat gland blockage on the Monarch Butterfly.

(I am not a Monarch Butterfly hater...my father cultivates, raises, protects them in his greenhouse to re-populate them in the Houston area).

And, no one gets hurt by naming winter storms. But...if ONLY ONE PERSON is helped by naming a winter storm (some ordinary citizen who is not weather-savvy but may seek help or prepare because of hearing that a storm is 'named' and may be dangerous)then this program is considered a success, IMHO.

Additionally, if named storms help the members of this blog track, comment on, and categorize them to avoid confusion...what is the big deal? IMHO, "over-hype" made my job easier...the more people prepared (or evacuated my Emergency Services District), the 'easier' my job was.

{Now back to our regularly scheduled program on "Global Warming...He Said/She Said", a documentary of two warring factions};>P

Respectfully submitted to all the members of this blog,

Retired Chief P


Naming winter storms may be harmless, but if the insurance companies treat named winter storms like named tropical storms, they can invoke the "Named storm deductible" rules. This rule is in Texas and other states. It can increase deductibles significantly. I do not see a reason to name winter storms if it is going to impact homeowner insurance.
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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:

Not really yet. I've finally gotten in contact with my doctors manager I'm good friends with, and I think she will be able to at least get them written hopefully on Monday. The surgical center in NJ is still out of power, I can't believe it.

And even though I don't need all of my prescriptions written right now, I am not taking any chances of another storm coming in the next two weeks and will hopefully just get all of them so at least I have them, and don't have to worry for another month!
Don't just hold the scripts, get them filled. Nothing worse than having the scripts and not being able to get the drugs.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
What's the deal with some of you people about this whole TWC-naming-winter storms deal anyways? Because the NWS doesn't back it up? Who cares, I think it's a great idea. We named hurricanes starting in the 1950s, with names like Dog, Easy, Fox, etc. It gives us weather nerds something to track in the post-season. The fact that people are putting everyone who agrees with The Weather Channel, such as Dr. Masters, as drinking TWC's kool-aid is astoundingly stupid. If you want to leave, leave. Now, is TWC's decision a way to get views and increase interest in their shows? Certainly, that's called being a business. Get used to it, but I can tell you for a fact regardless of the name, people being affected by these storms could care less about what name is given to it.


UUGGHH...time to weigh in with my humble opinion.

Thank you CyberTeddy for your comments.

First, who cares if TWC is using this for a marketing strategy. Does it really hurt anyone for TWC to make more money? The pieces of pie don't get smaller, the pie gets bigger (Reaganomics {Voodoo Economics} quote...yes, I am from that era). TWC makes more money=more people get jobs=more money spent=more taxes to U.S. and state coffers=more tax money spent on...whatever...maybe reconstruction, disaster relief, disaster preparedness, IDK...sweat gland blockage on the Monarch Butterfly.

(I am not a Monarch Butterfly hater...my father cultivates, raises, protects them in his greenhouse to re-populate them in the Houston area).

And, no one gets hurt by naming winter storms. But...if ONLY ONE PERSON is helped by naming a winter storm (some ordinary citizen who is not weather-savvy but may seek help or prepare because of hearing that a storm is 'named' and may be dangerous)then this program is considered a success, IMHO.

Additionally, if named storms help the members of this blog track, comment on, and categorize them to avoid confusion...what is the big deal? IMHO, "over-hype" made my job easier...the more people prepared (or evacuated my Emergency Services District), the 'easier' my job was.

{Now back to our regularly scheduled program on "Global Warming...He Said/She Said", a documentary of two warring factions};>P

Respectfully submitted to all the members of this blog,

Retired Chief P
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Quoting Grothar:

Why oh why.

Who feels that some kind of system might actually pan out? I know it's very far in advance but.. it's making me feel a bit uneasy.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25434
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25434
Quoting plutorising:


i thought you were joking

article here


I thought it was a joke too. Especially with the /sarcasm flag at the bottom of the post.

Washingtonian - That picture of your girlfriend is hideous...
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Quoting Skyepony:
Finally got my beach pics up. Sandy brought us so much sand...millions of dollars of sand. She was so well named. I know she was hell on the NE~ but here, We got a hurricane day with little damage & all that beach renourishment. She did East Central Florida quite a bit of good.

The new tidal pool/trench is where the beach used to end & the ocean began. Sandy brought far more beach than I've ever seen in this area. Not only is the sand bar new, the old beach is ~five foot higher than it used to be. It used to be 9 stairs down to the beach here now it's only 4. Click on the pic to see the whole series. These were taken in Indialantic, FL on 11-4. Heard mass Sandy sand renourishment happened all the way south to Vero Beach. Not sure what the entire area of great benefit was. Seen nothing in the media about it other than the initial damage of 25mill & pics a few days before these of eroded beach even Indialantic, that looks nothing like it does now. As the storm left it pumped sand up as it moved out according to beach dwelling friends. Looks like the federal 25mill in sand money is still being asked for. They could use a bulldozer to do some rearranging & there will be some beach front claims but I don't know about 25million in federal sand money..



Wow Sky...glad to hear that some good came out of Sandy.

{Chief P puts his tongue in his cheek}
Hope the next one on the Gulf Coast of Texas does the same, and takes all the brown water away and replaces it with the blue stuff...tired of looking at the "Gulf of Yoohoo";>P

{Chief P now takes his tongue out of his cheek}
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



...Have you been able to sort out your Rx challenge?

Not really yet. I've finally gotten in contact with my doctors manager I'm good friends with, and I think she will be able to at least get them written hopefully on Monday. The surgical center in NJ is still out of power, I can't believe it.

And even though I don't need all of my prescriptions written right now, I am not taking any chances of another storm coming in the next two weeks and will hopefully just get all of them so at least I have them, and don't have to worry for another month!
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.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Head of CIA resigns after undercover activity exposed.

/sarcasm


i thought you were joking

article here
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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:

God, no. I know it's so far out, but this can't come to fruition. We can't handle it here. Keeping an eye on it, and am prepared for any storm right now anyway because you just never know.



...Have you been able to sort out your Rx challenge?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Head of CIA resigns after undercover activity exposed.

/sarcasm


...you'd think the head of the CIA would be sneaky enough to not get caught...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I fear that the East Coast is in for a smacking at some point in the next 10-15 days. The GFS has been showing things for the past couple days, and now it appears the Euro is jumping on board for something. Still lots of questions but there is a broad consistency between the two.

Euro at 240 hours:



GFS at 300 hours:



And GFS at 360 hours:



The NAO will likely be crashing at this time, which is bad:


God, no. I know it's so far out, but this can't come to fruition. We can't handle it here. Keeping an eye on it, and am prepared for any storm right now anyway because you just never know.
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Good afternoon everyone, hopefully everyone is having good weather. Christmas music is now playing 100% non-stop in SE MI, great...

On a serious note, the NE could get another hit in after the 10 day period. Of course it wouldn't be Sandy but it could bring some bad impacts yet again. The GFS and Euro are now both showing a storm headed for the NE. Seeing this consistency starts to get me worried as that area has seen 2 storms in 2 weeks. Hopefully this storm on the models doesn't happen, but with the NAO expected to fall and some consistency already I think it could happen.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I fear that the East Coast is in for a smacking at some point in the next 10-15 days. The GFS has been showing things for the past couple days, and now it appears the Euro is jumping on board for something. Still lots of questions but there is a broad consistency between the two.

Euro at 240 hours:



GFS at 300 hours:



And GFS at 360 hours:



The NAO will likely be crashing at this time, which is bad:


That would be horrible for the Northeast after what they have been through
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Head of CIA resigns after undercover activity exposed.

/sarcasm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I fear that the East Coast is in for a smacking at some point in the next 10-15 days. The GFS has been showing things for the past couple days, and now it appears the Euro is jumping on board for something. Still lots of questions but there is a broad consistency between the two.

Euro at 240 hours:



GFS at 300 hours:



And GFS at 360 hours:



The NAO will likely be crashing at this time, which is bad:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7637
.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The waters have already been cooled off by Sandy and cold fronts, it should only be, if anything, a weak tropical storm.


a weak tropical storm on the east coast during august of this year would have been welcome for some regions due to the drought but as of NOW after Sandy and a noreaster, nah..there would be nothing "weak" about that storm to an already devastated area..
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Quoting Jeff Masters:
Although damages due to weather-related disasters are increasing, we cannot yet say climate change is to partially to blame. There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change...
Where dollar damages (and, for that matter, injuries and deaths) are concerned, I completely agree that it's simply too difficult and "noisy" to claim climate change as a culprit. But the number of actual extreme weather events has been increasing, of course, and that's where it's entirely plausible to point the finger at climate change. In fact, it's sort of illogical not to.
Quoting Jeff Masters:
We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that....
Yes, there certainly are. ;-)
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Quoting LargoFl:
all I have to say is.....Yesssssssssss



I'm right with you Largo! It's currently 76° in Ft Myers with the winds NE at 7. Humidity only 31% and Dewpoint of 43° Loving it!
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Quoting ncstorm:
Hate to be the bearer of bad news but the Euro is showing a future Valerie possibly threatening the east coast..00z run was a weaker disturbance but the 12z is stronger..

00z


12z





The waters have already been cooled off by Sandy and cold fronts, it should only be, if anything, a weak tropical storm.
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The pic of the flooded subway terminal that Dr. Master's posted is quite startling. My sister who lives in NYC also sent a few shots of her old neighborhood in the lower east side and that area had major flooding as well. I think Sandy was a wakeup call to all that when you have a significant amount of a city's infrastructure underground it doesn't take much water to bring the city to its knees. Even if the entire city had evacuated, there would still be quite a mess to mop up so to speak. Some of those tunnels in the subway system are pushing 80 years old so who knows if there has been any structural compromise to the system. Whoever can figure out how to self contain the system and effectively design the proverbial "subway storm door" will be a very rich man or woman.
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Happy 77th bday Bob Gibson! Best pitcher ever!

StL up to 71, I'm about 66. S winds now to 24 gusts

Edit: 77th post, how appropriate!
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all I have to say is.....Yesssssssssss
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Quoting NttyGrtty:


Bored, are we?
So so.just waiting for tonight.After all it is pay day!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16438
Quoting washingtonian115:
I said my opinion now we move on.This isn't the TMZ website.And yes the women in my avatar will be under your bed tonight waiting for you.ha ha!.


LOL..or Captain Howdy..

That is one movie I will not watch by myself..hands down the scariest movie of all time..
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I said my opinion now we move on.This isn't the TMZ website.And yes the women in my avatar will be under your bed tonight waiting for you.ha ha!.


Bored, are we?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also, if I seem grumpy today - I am. :P

I've caught the flu, so I've got a 101 degree fever, chills, all the unpleasant stuff. I haven't gotten a flu shot in years!
I got a slight bit of that yesterday. Hopefully yours will go away as quick as mine did. And I have NEVER gotten a flu shot.:)
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Quoting NttyGrtty:
Stripes lame? Yeah, the Linda Blair movies were much better...
I said my opinion now we move on.This isn't the TMZ website.And yes the women in my avatar will be under your bed tonight waiting for you.ha ha!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16438
Allan Huffman's 12z Euro run
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Stripes lame? Yeah, the Linda Blair movies were much better...
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Hate to be the bearer of bad news but the Euro is showing a future Valerie possibly threatening the east coast..00z run was a weaker disturbance but the 12z is stronger..

00z


12z



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Athena
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Quoting cpeterka:


Sgt Hulka in Stripes to the new recurit.

One of those things you just have to see.
STRIPES, Bill Murray.
Movie sounds lame..I'll pass..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16438
Quoting DrMickey:

Got it.
You'll have to excuse me; I'm an old man and I am overdue for yelling at a cloud.
i may be a bit younger, but i'll join ya..
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Quoting cpeterka:


Sgt Hulka in Stripes to the new recurit.

One of those things you just have to see.
STRIPES, Bill Murray.

Got it.
You'll have to excuse me; I'm an old man and I am overdue for yelling at a cloud.
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Quoting DrMickey:

Who is Francis? Not me...


Sgt Hulka in Stripes to the new recurit.

One of those things you just have to see.
STRIPES, Bill Murray.
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Quoting MrNatural:
I can think of one reason why the NWS should not go down the road of naming severe winter storms - homeowner insurance. Check out what insurance companies do when a storm is named, they increase the deductible. Many companies have been authorized by state agencies to increase the deductible if the storm is named. It is called the "Named storm Deductible". I also think it is one of the reasons why Hurricane Sandy was downgraded to a "severe storm" when it made landfall. For all the wonderful reasons to develop a system of naming storms, increasing homeowner costs should not be one of them!
I would be very angry!.I would love the snow but not paying the insurance company any more money than I have to now.I've all ready had to pay up this summer because of damages that occured with the storms.Now imagine if they were named?.Yikes!

Yeah it may be exciting for some to see their "wish come true".But not for people that have to pay out of our pockets.Thank goodness this isn't official.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16438
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
112 PM EST FRI NOV 09 2012

VALID 12Z MON NOV 12 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 16 2012

PRELIMINARY MEDIUM RANGE GRAPHICS MAINTAINED THE CONSISTENT
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET APPROACH WITH AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC FRONTAL
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES...GREAT LAKES...AND INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHERN TEXAS. BIG NEWS WILL BE THE SHARP THERMAL
CONTRASTS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD
BETWEEN DAY 3-5.

FOR SOME DAYS NOW...THE H85 TEMP FORECASTS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 10-15C. WITH SUCH A
SHARP CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES...SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...WINDS AND SURFACE-BASED LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FRONT WILL PRODUCE DRAMATIC SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES ALONG WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MIDWEST WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME. DEEP-LAYERED WARM ADVECTION STREAMING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE
READINGS THAT WILL BE A GOOD 15-20 F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE. SOME 15-25F BELOW NORMAL.

FOR DAYS 6-7...AGREE WITH THE MID SHIFT THAT A GFS/GEFS MEAN AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH APPEARS BEST TO HANDLE THE DEVELOPING
SPLIT-FLOW SCENARIO ALONG THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST.
Quite bit of rain with this next system.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20539

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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