Sandy the 11th U.S. billion-dollar disaster of 2012
Devastating Hurricane Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report. This puts 2012 in second place for most U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters behind 2011, when NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) counted fourteen such disasters. AON Benfield rated seventeen events as billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011, so the actual number of such disasters has considerable uncertainty depending upon who is doing the estimates. NCDC has not yet released their official figures for 2012's billion-dollar weather disasters, and we might expect that their total could be 20% lower than AON Benfield's, judging by what happened in 2011. This would give 2012 nine billion-dollar weather disasters, which would still put 2011 in second place for most billion-dollar weather disasters. Although damages due to weather-related disasters are increasing, we cannot yet say climate change is to partially to blame. There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change, as I explain in my January 2012 post, "Damage losses and climate change". We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that--such as the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer.
Figure 1. The escalators down to the South Ferry subway station in Lower Manhattan's Financial District lie flooded in the wake of Hurricane Sandy's storm surge on October 29, 2012. Total economic damage from Hurricane Sandy has been estimated at $30 - $50 billion by EQECAT. Image credit: New York MTA and Associated Press.
Figure 2. The U.S. has experienced eleven weather-related disasters costing at least $1 billion in 2012, according to data taken from the AON Benfield October 2012 Catastrophe Report. AON Benfield has not made a damage estimate for the 2012 Midwest drought, but according to National Crop Insurance Services, crop insurance losses alone will total $20 billion. The total cost of the drought could be more than $77 billion, said Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August. As Nick Sundt of the WWF summarizes in a nice blog post, this year will probably be the second most costly year since 1980 in terms of billion-dollar weather-related disasters.
Figure 3. Number of weather-related U.S. billion-dollar disasters per year (blue bars) from 1980 - 2012, and the total cost of these disasters (red and dark blue lines, with the red line showing the inflation-adjusted costs.) Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
Winter Storm Brutus bringing blizzard conditions to Montana
Winter Storm Brutus is bringing blizzard conditions to Northeast Montana, with heavy snow and high winds that have gusted to 45 mph. Brutus has dumped a widespread area of 4 - 6 inches of snow over large portions of Montana since Thursday afternoon, with 7 - 10 inches reported in the Great Falls area and 17" in the mountains near Glacier National Park. According to the Glasgow, MT NWS Facebook page, the current storm has the potential to be a top-ten snowfall event for the area, with records going back 115 years. The storm will affect Montana and western North Dakota through Saturday morning, then push north-northeastwards into Canada.
Top ten 2-day snow events in Glasgow, Montana history:
1 15.0" 4/18/1896
2 14.3" 12/27/2003
3 14.1" 4/ 3/1940, 4/ 2/1940
5 14.0" 11/19/1941
6 13.4" 10/13/2008
7 13.3" 11/ 6/2000
8 13.0" 10/12/2008, 4/ 9/1995, 1/26/1916
The Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet
There are still three weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, and the way this year has gone, I wouldn't be surprised to see the season's 20th named storm--Tropical Storm Valerie--sometime this month. One potential candidate is a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms that has developed about 800 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa. However, wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and any development should be slow. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, do not develop the disturbance, and show it drifting slowly to the northwest over the next few days. In their 7 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday morning.
A better candidate to become Valerie is an area of low pressure that is predicted to develop between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. The GFS model shows this low becoming a subtropical cyclone as it gets pulled to the north or north-northeast late next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Sar,
Melting sea ice allows more water vapor to get into the Arctic atmosphere and that also adds energy to that atmosphere. That energy is transported southward in the waves of the jet stream and will cause havoc in the temperate regions for the next couple of months. Probably by 01/13 that affect will be gone but there will be significant snow cover in portions of the Northern Hemisphere.
If you're interested in these subjects, google Jennifer Francis and check out some of her lectures. They are very informative. My favorite is her longest one, however this one is to the point.
Mid-level jet over 100 knots
Stay tuned
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=l atest&id=SREF_prob_sigtor_3__
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS.
FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET PERIOD TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE US. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE BACK
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TREK NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR NEW YORK...SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY...RESULTING IN
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.
&&
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMING FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Just to play the other side of the coin. A lot more and early snow is what I am reading in your post, right?
Snow reflects more sunlight because it is 'white' and not 'dark'. At least this is the argument given by the warming feedback loop in the arctic. Less snow/ice the more it melts...
Sounds like this is a way for 'mother nature' to balance out the temperature. (or at least mitigate)
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/queens/queens- calls-faster-recovery-efforts-article-1.1199737#ix zz2Bp2utGRq
Link
Oddly, despite the record minimum Arctic Ocean sea ice area in September, the northern hemisphere average temperature for October was only the eighth warmest on record, at 0.77 degrees C above average.
And October in the southern hemisphere was the warmest October on record - by a whopping 0.09 degrees C. I wonder what caused that?
Link
Yes, this could be a very snowy fall and early winter in the temperate zone.
At Cryosphere Today's Interactive display today is a new record low for this date in the ice coverage of the Arctic. Today's reading is over 350,000 sq. km. below the old sea ice coverage minimum record set for this date in 2009.
The significant danger is in very slow moving jet stream waves. As Dr. Francis points out this could mean that a blizzard scenario could get stuck over a certain area and dump record amounts of snow, amounts we aren't prepared for. At this point we need to ask, is NYC or Washington, DC, ready for a blizzard that lasts for 4 days and drops 15 feet of snow on the city? Then the temps stay well below freezing for 3 weeks? The warming Arctic makes this a possibility.
Never mind. I googled it.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 10 2012
======================================
A low pressure area may form over central parts of south Bay of Bengal around November 14th.
Yup, willing to bet we will see at least one more named, making 2012 tied with 1933 as the 2nd most active hurricane season in history (1933 used to have 21, but was knocked down to 20 and added two Category 5 hurricanes to the list)
If democracy is such a good idea, how do we explain that such unutterably stupid people wind up as our elected leaders?
Link
That is due to a developing ridge pattern in the east. Probably a couple weeks of relatively warm weather before a trough pattern takes hold again and the cold spills back into our area.
Link
(sorry if already posted)
(Great Falls, MT, news)
Link
Midday 100% midnight 0% LOL
Back when I went to college, now some time ago, we were taught that the melting ice would not be the major factor in rising sea levels, as the expanded volume of the over all warmer waters was what would make the real impact. Or am I misremembering?
Physics peeps: If you heat a liter of water by 5 Centigrade, how much of an increase in volume is there, assuming that the water was at roughly room temperature to start?
Up to 4 feet of snow in Montana as storm hits West
Link
FEMA @fema
Reminder: check out the new @FEMASandy for all things related to the ongoing Hurricane #Sandy recovery efforts http://www.fema.gov/sandy
you got nothing else better to do on a saturday morning but wake up and get on a weather board and call people you have never met in your life stupid on account of a group called the "Geological Society of America"..good thing the "Bridge Players Of North America" didn't vote down the new rule of 5 hand draw or you will be going after them too and calling them stupid..everyone else living above the bridge have a good day!
I do not know how you got that out of my post. I have worked disaster areas and I know that there are long hours and thousands out there doing their best. I am NOT blaming the workers for anything. Sandy caused it. As horrible as it is here without power, to me it would be horrific to be in freezing temps and snow without heat. (assumes you need power to heat your house - most people I know in the NE do need power for heat)
(11/10) Stay connected in #NJ: Locations are available for charging your phone and connecting to Wi-Fi. http://ow.ly/f81j7 #Sandy
FEMA Sandy @FEMASandy
(11/10) #Queens, #Brooklyn, #StatenIsland residents: click here for food/water/blanket distribution sites: http://ow.ly/fbfd0 , 12-4pm
Live Video streaming by Ustream
Storm Spotter Training
On a good note (I guess...), the death toll has stopped at 113 in the United States.
2 billion in Cuba, a good 2-3 billion in Jamaica, 20 billion in New Jersey, 10 billion elsewhere. So, I think around 63 billion sounds right.
Anyone got a good replacement name for Sandy btw?
Thinking Sandra would be fine.
To me, that will have the opposite effect of warning people.
People will get so used to hearing named storms that they will begin to ignore them.
I feel that named storms should be left for Tropical system.
This is just my opionion, but it seems to be shared by all my friends, family, and people I work with.
To recap the story in brief: scientists advising North Carolina's Coastal Resources Commission said that, based on numerous scientific studies, the state should prepare for about 39 inches of sea level rise by 2100. A coastal economic development group--NC-20--decided that wouldn't work for them, and that denialism of science would be more profitable. So this group of developers convinced a majority of the Republican-led General Assembly to pass a law requiring that those scientists not be listened to in favor of making up their own simplistic, non-scientific projections that, of course, predict a far smaller sea level rise in North Carolina. Because, you know, oceanside condos for everyone!
Stupid. Stupid, stupid, stupid...
where is the Azores high?
I think storms like Sandy come along every now and again to remind us that there but for the grace of God go I... IOW, it was easy for some pple away from the impacts of Katrina to talk about "why do they live there if hurricanes can cause so much devastation?"... and call people stupid for rebuilding in the same area. But there have been so many devastating natural disasters just in the US over the last 10 years, many wx related, that I can't understand how anybody can take this holier-than-thou stance. It's really "luckier-than-thou", isn't it?
My heart, and my prayers, go out to the NY / NJ residents still without power in this colder time of the year. When we endure weeks without power in November in the temperate zone, at least we don't also have to worry about freezing to death.... :o/
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