Sandy the 11th U.S. billion-dollar disaster of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2012

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Devastating Hurricane Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report. This puts 2012 in second place for most U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters behind 2011, when NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) counted fourteen such disasters. AON Benfield rated seventeen events as billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011, so the actual number of such disasters has considerable uncertainty depending upon who is doing the estimates. NCDC has not yet released their official figures for 2012's billion-dollar weather disasters, and we might expect that their total could be 20% lower than AON Benfield's, judging by what happened in 2011. This would give 2012 nine billion-dollar weather disasters, which would still put 2011 in second place for most billion-dollar weather disasters. Although damages due to weather-related disasters are increasing, we cannot yet say climate change is to partially to blame. There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change, as I explain in my January 2012 post, "Damage losses and climate change". We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that--such as the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer.


Figure 1. The escalators down to the South Ferry subway station in Lower Manhattan's Financial District lie flooded in the wake of Hurricane Sandy's storm surge on October 29, 2012. Total economic damage from Hurricane Sandy has been estimated at $30 - $50 billion by EQECAT. Image credit: New York MTA and Associated Press.


Figure 2. The U.S. has experienced eleven weather-related disasters costing at least $1 billion in 2012, according to data taken from the AON Benfield October 2012 Catastrophe Report. AON Benfield has not made a damage estimate for the 2012 Midwest drought, but according to National Crop Insurance Services, crop insurance losses alone will total $20 billion. The total cost of the drought could be more than $77 billion, said Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August. As Nick Sundt of the WWF summarizes in a nice blog post, this year will probably be the second most costly year since 1980 in terms of billion-dollar weather-related disasters.


Figure 3. Number of weather-related U.S. billion-dollar disasters per year (blue bars) from 1980 - 2012, and the total cost of these disasters (red and dark blue lines, with the red line showing the inflation-adjusted costs.) Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Winter Storm Brutus bringing blizzard conditions to Montana
Winter Storm Brutus is bringing blizzard conditions to Northeast Montana, with heavy snow and high winds that have gusted to 45 mph. Brutus has dumped a widespread area of 4 - 6 inches of snow over large portions of Montana since Thursday afternoon, with 7 - 10 inches reported in the Great Falls area and 17" in the mountains near Glacier National Park. According to the Glasgow, MT NWS Facebook page, the current storm has the potential to be a top-ten snowfall event for the area, with records going back 115 years. The storm will affect Montana and western North Dakota through Saturday morning, then push north-northeastwards into Canada.

Top ten 2-day snow events in Glasgow, Montana history:

1 15.0" 4/18/1896
2 14.3" 12/27/2003
3 14.1" 4/ 3/1940, 4/ 2/1940
5 14.0" 11/19/1941
6 13.4" 10/13/2008
7 13.3" 11/ 6/2000
8 13.0" 10/12/2008, 4/ 9/1995, 1/26/1916

The Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet
There are still three weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, and the way this year has gone, I wouldn't be surprised to see the season's 20th named storm--Tropical Storm Valerie--sometime this month. One potential candidate is a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms that has developed about 800 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa. However, wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and any development should be slow. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, do not develop the disturbance, and show it drifting slowly to the northwest over the next few days. In their 7 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday morning.

A better candidate to become Valerie is an area of low pressure that is predicted to develop between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. The GFS model shows this low becoming a subtropical cyclone as it gets pulled to the north or north-northeast late next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh OSCAT..not to the surface yet..
Do you think it would develop Skye?
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Quoting atris:
Thanks Doc . Them winter storms keep a coming
Send some kind of storm to South Central Texas, 13 days straight of temps 80 to 91 with lows pretty warm also and no rain here to talk about since Sept 29th. This mornings low was 67. Average temps here are 48 to 72 for this time of year. We were hoping for El Nino now all I am hearing is La Nina is coming back. It is suppose to cool off some but it is bone dry here again. It does look like the Midwest to the Northeast will be getting all the storms for awhile. The storm tracks all look like they will stay off the north so those that are dry will remain dry and those that are too wet will continue to get wet.
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157. Skyepony (Mod)
More flooding in the UK..

More than 60 Cumbrian communities are living under the threat of flash flooding – double the number in the rest of the entire north west region. Following high-profile problems across the area, the Environment Agency has compiled a new list of the areas most at risk – potentially affecting thousands of people. It includes almost 20 communities in the west of the county, including those along the coast and in the Egremont, Cleator Moor, Cockermouth, Workington and Keswick areas. A total of 99 areas are identified, 67 across Cumbria and a further 32 in Lancashire and Greater Manchester. The agency says not every property in these communities will be at risk. However it stresses that it is important everyone in the area is aware of the dangers and ensures they are prepared for it to hit at anytime. A spokesman said flash flooding is caused by intense rainfall. It occurs suddenly with little or no warning – often before emergency services have time to arrive. It tends to happen when heavy rainfall runs off land and quickly swells rivers and streams, and can also occur where drainage systems are overwhelmed. One of the most recent examples was in August this year, when flash flooding hit parts of west Cumbria. About 80 homes and businesses in the Egremont area were damaged when heavy rain flooded a nearby beck and drains could no longer cope. Earlier this month there were also problems in Whitehaven town centre and in other surrounding areas, while surface water also caused problems around Carlisle. Following a detailed study to identify the areas most at risk, the agency is contacting householders and business owners that could be affected. Information leaflets about preparing for flooding are also being distributed. Mark Garratt, its flood and coastal risk manager, said: “Knowing your flood risk is the first step to protecting your family and property. Once you know the risks, you can put measures in place to stay safe.”
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156. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh OSCAT..not to the surface yet..
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The 18z GFS developed a total of four systems in the last run.


The first one is by 66 hours from our disturbance out in the Atlantic. Weakens it quickly, so I doubt it would make so much as a 45mph Tropical Storm.

The second one is by 102 hours, north of Puerto Rico, and is probably a sub-tropical system.

The third one is by 150 hours, out by where the first developed, and is stronger.

The fourth one is similar to the second one, sub-tropical in nature.

That would take us to Beta. Guess is we'll see at least one more named this year.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23871
154. Skyepony (Mod)
WOW..This just needs some convection from the center. Moving wsw too..click to loop.
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For decades we've been told that sooner or later another hurricane was going to strike the northeast and cause catastrophic damage. There was no mention of global warming. Now that it has happened some are saying AGW is why it happened. Storms of that magnitude have probably hit the northeast U.S. two or three times a century for thousands of years. These alarmist only weaken their argument with such claims and it becomes more obvious it's agenda driven. And with Santa Claus back for four more years your agenda is full steam ahead.
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For those of you who have lived through more hurricanes than I...have you ever seen the sky light up rainbow colors? What I saw was definitely not lightning or transformers blowing up. This was the whole sky lighting up grass green, red, sometimes purple. The flashes of light lasted way longer than a typical flash of lightning and there was no thunder. I've never seen anything like it before. Scariest storm ever! Any idea what it was?

Thanks and I hope everyone affected by Sandy is safe!
Action: Quote | Ignore User



yes i am in central maine and during the 1998 ice storm i saw the similiar thing , tranformers lighting up the sky almost continuously. it was transformers blowing up, we lost power for 7 days with 10-20 degree weather no fun but unforgetable!!
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Quoting RetiredChiefP:


UUGGHH...time to weigh in with my humble

I just think it is sad that they want to add more bull to the news cycle. I'd like things to trend in the opposite direction.
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Hi,

I've been lurking here for a while. I just wanted to thank each and every one of you here for posting on Hurricane Sandy. Because of you all, I was able to prepare.

I absolutely love storms, but I have never EVER experienced anything like Sandy before, not to mention the aftermath. I feel like I'm living in Dodge City. I hear sirens constantly and the Armed Guard is becoming a regular sight. It's very, very sad. I'm blessed that I still have my home and don't have much damage.

For those of you who have lived through more hurricanes than I...have you ever seen the sky light up rainbow colors? What I saw was definitely not lightning or transformers blowing up. This was the whole sky lighting up grass green, red, sometimes purple. The flashes of light lasted way longer than a typical flash of lightning and there was no thunder. I've never seen anything like it before. Scariest storm ever! Any idea what it was?

Thanks and I hope everyone affected by Sandy is safe!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi WU-Team,
This is interesting

..."A better candidate to become Valerie is an area of low pressure that is predicted to develop between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. The GFS model shows this low becoming a subtropical cyclone as it gets pulled to the north or north-northeast late next week."
Jeff Masters
Also glad to see Jeff is getting the publicity pay-off he had hoped with the Big Gun buy out.
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148. Hugo5
I think that warning is a bit early. the low is still well north of denver.
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147. beell
Yes, it must be the NWS.

WWAK42 PAFG 100011
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

AKZ216-100700-
/X.EXT.PAFG.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121111T0000Z/
LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS-
INCLUDING...GALENA...NULATO...HUSLIA...KALTAG...R UBY...KOYUKUK
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST SATURDAY...

* SNOW...3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED SOUTH OF KALTAG.

* TIMING...SNOW...WITH FREEZING RAIN SOUTH OF KALTAG...WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES AND TREES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ212-100700-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121110T1500Z/
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS-
INCLUDING...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL...ELIM...KOYUK...
SHAKTOOLIK
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY...

* SNOW...2 TO 3 INCHES.

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE HALF INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN
AT TIMES. PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF UNALAKLEET ON
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ214-100700-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121111T0000Z/
YUKON DELTA-
INCLUDING...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK...ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...
PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...
PITKAS POINT
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST
SATURDAY...

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ215-100700-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121111T0000Z/
LOWER YUKON VALLEY-
INCLUDING...RUSSIAN MISSION...GRAYLING...HOLY CROSS...SHAGELUK...
ANVIK...FLAT
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST
SATURDAY...

* SNOW...2 TO 5 INCHES...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF ANVIK.

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

* TIMING...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING TONIGHT... TAPERING
OFF SATURDAY. FREEZING RAIN MOST FREQUENT SOUTH OF ANVIK.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES AND TREES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$

AKZ227-100700-
/X.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-121111T0000Z/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING...MCGRATH...NIKOLAI...TAKOTNA...FAREWEL L LAKE
311 PM AKST FRI NOV 9 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST
SATURDAY...

* SNOW...2 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED FROM MCGRATH
SOUTH AND WEST.

* FREEZING RAIN...WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FROM MCGRATH SOUTH AND WEST.

* TIMING...SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN.
OCCASIONAL SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY.


* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES AND TREES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

&&

$$





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146. beell
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


they should have done it like this...

advisory for the 2-3" of snow
freezing rain warning for the .5" of ice

but it's the NWS


Perhaps you could include a specific WFO?. Alaska is kinda big.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

One half inch of ice will do a lot, especially combined with snow. That's why there is a warning instead of an advisory.


they should have done it like this...

advisory for the 2-3" of snow
freezing rain warning for the .5" of ice

but it's the NWS
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

ALASKA


...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY...


* SNOW...2 TO 3 INCHES. (just for 2-3 inches???

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE HALF INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN
AT TIMES. PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF UNALAKLEET ON
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.

One half inch of ice will do a lot, especially combined with snow. That's why there is a warning instead of an advisory.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

ALASKA


...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY...


* SNOW...2 TO 3 INCHES. (just for 2-3 inches???

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE HALF INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.


* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN
AT TIMES. PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF UNALAKLEET ON
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.



ICE ICE BABY
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142. beell
Quoting Hugo5:


I use this web site http://hint.fm/wind/ to get an idea of were the lows and highs are, but when I look at the surface maps here on wunderground the maps seem to be all off. maybe refering to upper level lows and other things, not surface pressure systems, anyone have a good map they use to get surface pressures?



Click at/near area of interest to zoom-in. Click again to zoom-out.
HPC North America Zoom-in
HPC Surface Analysis Page
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ALASKA


...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
SATURDAY...


* SNOW...2 TO 3 INCHES. (just for 2-3 inches???

* FREEZING RAIN...UP TO ONE HALF INCH ICE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN
AT TIMES. PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF UNALAKLEET ON
SATURDAY AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND
HAZARDOUS. POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER HAZARDS ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have to say I come to post here 10x or more as often as I do in Facebook...

I love this blog...sorry it's out of topic
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139. Hugo5
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What do you mean?


I use this web site http://hint.fm/wind/ to get an idea of were the lows and highs are, but when I look at the surface maps here on wunderground the maps seem to be all off. maybe refering to upper level lows and other things, not surface pressure systems, anyone have a good map they use to get surface pressures?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hugo5:
Has anyone else noticed how inaccurate the surface maps are?


What do you mean?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14210
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Not this one, but another of your arguments today did make sense. The one about all the reaction to TWC naming storms caused more publicity for TWC. Not many bloggers respond to your comments here. I have, and what I now realize is the more responses you get that challenge the logic and form of your argument, the more chances you get to continue it. When I looked back to see what hydrus had written, I saw you commented at the end of Doc M's previous blog. I did not read what you wrote there and I will not respond. As soon as I click "post comment," you will go onto my ignore list. Sorry if this causes your ratings or income to go down but, frankly, I feel used.

Have a nice whatever.
;-)
I'm always amused by those who make it known that they're placing someone with whom they've been debating on the ignore list. This, the forum equivalent of angrily picking up one's ball and going home, is as sure a sign as any that the person acknowledges they've lost. ;-)

But I have to say that it appears some here may still be struggling with the finer meaning of terms such as "dialog", or "discussion", or "debate". See, when in a public forum someone writes something to which others disagree, it's very common--indeed, expected--that those others will respond. So if someone "challenge[s] the logic and form of [my] argument", it's only natural that I would "continue it" by answering them in return. That's part of the dynamic, two-way, give-and-take nature of online debate. Anyone who cares to "challenge the logic and form of [an] argument" without themselves being challenged in return would be better off simply mumbling those challenges into an empty room so no one can hear them. Otherwise, it's all fair game.

On another note, it's important to keep in mind that the real value of any particular comment can't be measured by counting how many people respond to it, or quote it, or vote it up. No, the only true measure of a comment's worth is how many people find it useful, or thought-provoking, or touching, or profound. Popularity contests are for junior high school; grown-ups should try to use different metrics.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

If that's a reference to my discussion with hydrus, I been talking about blaming a storm like Sandy on AGW, not the potential sea level rise on a warming planet. And no one, that I can see anyway, said anything about not doing anything for hundreds of years toward what humans might do to help heal our atmosphere. You seem a little scared. If you're really, really afraid of Florida going under water and you live there, then leave. At this point in time, no one can rescue Florida from drowning if this indeed comes to pass. The smart money is already preparing.
Ps to that. The 200 and 400 years were purely referring to when a rerun of Sandy might happen, based on history of a storm like Sandy, beings there hasn't been one in recorded weather history. That happens sometimes when you drag a comment in from another blog, pulled out of context. Someone takes it down a one way street the wrong way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
400years? 200years? Somehow deciding to wait until the most populated areas of Florida are underwater before deciding whether AGW is real seems a bit unrealistic to me.
If that's a reference to my discussion with hydrus, I been talking about blaming a storm like Sandy on AGW, not the potential sea level rise on a warming planet. And no one, that I can see anyway, said anything about not doing anything for hundreds of years toward what humans might do to help heal our atmosphere. You seem a little scared. If you're really, really afraid of Florida going under water and you live there, then leave. At this point in time, no one can rescue Florida from drowning if this indeed comes to pass. The smart money is already preparing.
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134. Hugo5
Has anyone else noticed how inaccurate the surface maps are?
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Evening all...

Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, hopefully everyone is having good weather. Christmas music is now playing 100% non-stop in SE MI, great...

On a serious note, the NE could get another hit in after the 10 day period. Of course it wouldn't be Sandy but it could bring some bad impacts yet again. The GFS and Euro are now both showing a storm headed for the NE. Seeing this consistency starts to get me worried as that area has seen 2 storms in 2 weeks. Hopefully this storm on the models doesn't happen, but with the NAO expected to fall and some consistency already I think it could happen.
Lol... I was just laughing about the Christmas music in Sbux... not to mention the seasonal drinks and the decorations... lol

Gotta tellya... sure doesn't feel like hurricane season anymore, but that wx west of the CVs looks remarkably business-like for November.

At least the Caribbean is pretty clear for now.
It actually feels - and looks - a lot like Christmas-time in the north here right now... and I am hoping I can finally get a chance to photograph the remarkably wintery-looking foliage, compliments of Sandy, which wind / sand / salt blasted just about everything green in the islands. Most trees have lost their leaves, and even the evergreens are brown and sad-looking.... never seen a storm do such damage to the foliage here.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21864
NBC editor with time constraint:

...hmmmm, on the show tonight,
should we run the interview with the Weather Underground guy,
or the CIA story.

(60's all over again)

; )
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Not just unrealistic, but stupid. Very, very stupid...


Quoting aspectre:
400years? 200years? Somehow deciding to wait until the most populated areas of Florida are underwater before deciding whether AGW is real seems a bit unrealistic to me.

I think we all have to get this thing with global warming into perspective here. The times when something could have been done about it encroachment were probably about 30 years ago.
Doing something now is like running after the bullet you just fired because you changed your mind about shooting it.
Damage limitation is probably the best that can be achieved with a lot of luck!
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Well at least I got my prescription thing worked out. My doctors manager got them from him to me and is sending them to me.. phew. She told me things are just so insanely screwed up with all the offices and even the computers. Plus the cable/internet has been knocked out again from the storm on Wednesday.

Seriously, Sandy is the storm that keeps on giving.

Now we just need some kind of barrier around this region to keep anymore storms from coming here.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS INTERACTING WITH A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14210
Quoting Neapolitan:
Not just unrealistic, but stupid. Very, very stupid...
Well said!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
400years? 200years? Somehow deciding to wait until the most populated areas of Florida are underwater before deciding whether AGW is real seems a bit unrealistic to me.
Not just unrealistic, but stupid. Very, very stupid...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
here is a link to the story i found on the web.................Link.....prophets of doom
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37925
Just watched an amazing show on history channel-2 on cable..forget climate change, thats in the future..the bigger problem today is Water..drinkable clean water and our food supply.....in 1970 we reached our peak in obtaining fossil fuel..oil..and are on the downward slope..remember not only does oil fuel the semi's that bring our food supplies from 1500 miles away or so..but..how does our food crops grow?..famers use tractors..fueled by oil huh..and the fertilizers used to feed our food crops..comes from natural gas etc..both we are running out of...in 30 years they said..we are going to face a life changing crisis in america,now onto water..did you know our wastewater plants that supposedly filter our waste water and then dumps it back into the oceans and rivers etc..only filter out SOME of the waste..fish in the ocean are showing high concentrations of..caffine..i spelled that wrong but..every time you drink a coffee..and later get rid of it..into the rivers and oceans it goes....now think..of all the medicines you intake..then get rid of later..all going into the water..and eaten by fish etc....a real scary show it was for me...profhets of doom its called(spelled that wrong too) but look for it..and watch it..you will completely forget..about climate change..oh and also..i didnt know..by law..in australia..you are only allowed..by law..to take a 5 minute shower....Thats how close we are in that area to run out of clean water
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37925
Quoting percylives:


I prefer to look at it like this. It is almost impossible to label Climate Change as a direct cause of any specific event. It is a lot easier and logically correct to label climate change as the systemic cause of many events. Systemic causes make something much more likely because they change the system.

Look at it like this. A lot of weed smokers are more likely to get in trouble with the Feds in CO and WA because of the change in the state laws. But the law will not be a direct cause; it will be a systemic cause that encourages the smokers to defy Federal law.

Increased CO2 in the atmosphere is changing our system. And Mother Nature is getting ready to kick our butts right off her planet if we don't start showing some respect.


I wonder if the increased CO2 from the smokers in Colorado will affect climate change in any way? Or will it just be called green energy?
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400years? 200years? Somehow deciding to wait until the most populated areas of Florida are underwater before deciding whether AGW is real seems a bit unrealistic to me.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Where dollar damages (and, for that matter, injuries and deaths) are concerned, I completely agree that it's simply too difficult and "noisy" to claim climate change as a culprit. But the number of actual extreme weather events has been increasing, of course, and that's where it's entirely plausible to point the finger at climate change. In fact, it's sort of illogical not to.Yes, there certainly are. ;-)

Not this one, but another of your arguments today did make sense. The one about all the reaction to TWC naming storms caused more publicity for TWC. Not many bloggers respond to your comments here. I have, and what I now realize is the more responses you get that challenge the logic and form of your argument, the more chances you get to continue it. When I looked back to see what hydrus had written, I saw you commented at the end of Doc M's previous blog. I did not read what you wrote there and I will not respond. As soon as I click "post comment," you will go onto my ignore list. Sorry if this causes your ratings or income to go down but, frankly, I feel used.

Have a nice whatever.
;-)
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We will wait and watch you on MOnday then, Dr.Masters.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10065
Quoting RetiredChiefP:


IKR!!! I think I saw that little gecko pointing out Brutus on a map of Montana earlier this morning on TWC. ;>P


{tongue in cheek}

And doesn't his company stand for "Guvmint Employee Insurance Company"??

{tongue out of cheek}
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Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Hmm. Which insurance companies advertise on TWC? It really IS that kind of world now.

To my eye it looks in general to be about 16-18 inches of snow in Helena Montana, so far. That is.... that is what you see out there sitting on undisturbed flat surfaces.

Here is a link to a local cam in the city Link


IKR!!! I think I saw that little gecko pointing out Brutus on a map of Montana earlier this morning on TWC. ;>P
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Quoting MrNatural:


Naming winter storms may be harmless, but if the insurance companies treat named winter storms like named tropical storms, they can invoke the "Named storm deductible" rules. This rule is in Texas and other states. It can increase deductibles significantly. I do not see a reason to name winter storms if it is going to impact homeowner insurance.


Hmm. Which insurance companies advertise on TWC? It really IS that kind of world now.

To my eye it looks in general to be about 16-18 inches of snow in Helena Montana, so far. That is.... that is what you see out there sitting on undisturbed flat surfaces.

Here is a link to a local cam in the city Link
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
Since you brought this forward, I'll reply, mostly to keep the he said/she said straight from my original comment in the previous blog,
Barefootontherocks 4:39 PM GMT on November 09, 2012

Quoting hydrus:
I hope your right, but 200 years is far fetched in my eyes. The region gets its share of storms, and I would not be surprised if something like Sandy struck them again next year with the worlds weather changing the way it is.

This is what I said:
Thanks for the response.

Saw roughly 400 years ago for historical comparison here and at weatherhistorian's blog. I picked 200 as a compromise. I can't help observing that we humans, in the US and possibly elsewhere, are cycling through that part of the circle where "middle of the road" seems a lost art.

This is what you said in this blog at comment 58:
I believe the Earths weather has changed significantly the past 30 years, cant imagine what things will be like in 200.-hydrus.

To which I reply:
The behavior of the atmosphere over time will tell us. I believe in the benefit of the doubt and the middle of the road. For me, jumping on the hype bandwagon would be totally out of character.
bf
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Quoting JeffMasters:
My interview that was scheduled to appear on NBC Nightly News this Friday evening at 6:30 pm to talk about Hurricane Sandy and climate change has been postponed, and is now scheduled to run on Monday.

Jeff Masters


Awww...geez Doc...now I will have to wait ALLLL weekend...in sunny, 80-degree weather...go through a HORRIBLE rain shower (when the cold front comes through Houston) to watch you on NBC.

Could you please...please...please...convince them to air it before Monday??? I feel...well...helpless...

LOL...just kidding Dr. Masters...look forward to seeing it.

Irreverently,
Chief P
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I think Charlie Chan was way ahead of his time. He didn't even believe in naming his children. He just referred to them by numbers. Like #1 son and #2 son and #1 daughter, etc. Of course he lost count after 11.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25976
114. JeffMasters (Admin)
My interview that was scheduled to appear on NBC Nightly News this Friday evening at 6:30 pm to talk about Hurricane Sandy and climate change has been postponed, and is now scheduled to run on Monday.

Jeff Masters


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Quoting weatherdogg:


Obviously, the devil is in the details, namely (pun intended) how they define "named storm". I suspect the legalase in the insurance policy contracts is sophisticated enough to distinguish between a storm named by the NHC versus one named by a news agency or private company, but who knows.


You probably are right. My concern is that pressure will be put on the NWS to keep up with the TWC. Then the legalese as you put it may be more formal....
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Quoting MrNatural:
This is a link to the Office of Public Insurance from Texas. The rules and impact on deductibles from damage relating to a named storm is clear. It will cost the consumer more if the damage is from a named storm.


Obviously, the devil is in the details, namely (pun intended) how they define "named storm". I suspect the legalase in the insurance policy contracts is sophisticated enough to distinguish between a storm named by the NHC versus one named by a news agency or private company, but who knows.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Where dollar damages (and, for that matter, injuries and deaths) are concerned, I completely agree that it's simply too difficult and "noisy" to claim climate change as a culprit. But the number of actual extreme weather events has been increasing, of course, and that's where it's entirely plausible to point the finger at climate change. In fact, it's sort of illogical not to.Yes, there certainly are. ;-)


I prefer to look at it like this. It is almost impossible to label Climate Change as a direct cause of any specific event. It is a lot easier and logically correct to label climate change as the systemic cause of many events. Systemic causes make something much more likely because they change the system.

Look at it like this. A lot of weed smokers are more likely to get in trouble with the Feds in CO and WA because of the change in the state laws. But the law will not be a direct cause; it will be a systemic cause that encourages the smokers to defy Federal law.

Increased CO2 in the atmosphere is changing our system. And Mother Nature is getting ready to kick our butts right off her planet if we don't start showing some respect.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
109. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting kwgirl:
Don't just hold the scripts, get them filled. Nothing worse than having the scripts and not being able to get the drugs.


Some states won't allow you to have over a 30 day supply of Class I narcotics .. so our prescriptions are dated ..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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