Sandy the 11th U.S. billion-dollar disaster of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2012

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Devastating Hurricane Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report. This puts 2012 in second place for most U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters behind 2011, when NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) counted fourteen such disasters. AON Benfield rated seventeen events as billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011, so the actual number of such disasters has considerable uncertainty depending upon who is doing the estimates. NCDC has not yet released their official figures for 2012's billion-dollar weather disasters, and we might expect that their total could be 20% lower than AON Benfield's, judging by what happened in 2011. This would give 2012 nine billion-dollar weather disasters, which would still put 2011 in second place for most billion-dollar weather disasters. Although damages due to weather-related disasters are increasing, we cannot yet say climate change is to partially to blame. There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change, as I explain in my January 2012 post, "Damage losses and climate change". We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that--such as the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer.


Figure 1. The escalators down to the South Ferry subway station in Lower Manhattan's Financial District lie flooded in the wake of Hurricane Sandy's storm surge on October 29, 2012. Total economic damage from Hurricane Sandy has been estimated at $30 - $50 billion by EQECAT. Image credit: New York MTA and Associated Press.


Figure 2. The U.S. has experienced eleven weather-related disasters costing at least $1 billion in 2012, according to data taken from the AON Benfield October 2012 Catastrophe Report. AON Benfield has not made a damage estimate for the 2012 Midwest drought, but according to National Crop Insurance Services, crop insurance losses alone will total $20 billion. The total cost of the drought could be more than $77 billion, said Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August. As Nick Sundt of the WWF summarizes in a nice blog post, this year will probably be the second most costly year since 1980 in terms of billion-dollar weather-related disasters.


Figure 3. Number of weather-related U.S. billion-dollar disasters per year (blue bars) from 1980 - 2012, and the total cost of these disasters (red and dark blue lines, with the red line showing the inflation-adjusted costs.) Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Winter Storm Brutus bringing blizzard conditions to Montana
Winter Storm Brutus is bringing blizzard conditions to Northeast Montana, with heavy snow and high winds that have gusted to 45 mph. Brutus has dumped a widespread area of 4 - 6 inches of snow over large portions of Montana since Thursday afternoon, with 7 - 10 inches reported in the Great Falls area and 17" in the mountains near Glacier National Park. According to the Glasgow, MT NWS Facebook page, the current storm has the potential to be a top-ten snowfall event for the area, with records going back 115 years. The storm will affect Montana and western North Dakota through Saturday morning, then push north-northeastwards into Canada.

Top ten 2-day snow events in Glasgow, Montana history:

1 15.0" 4/18/1896
2 14.3" 12/27/2003
3 14.1" 4/ 3/1940, 4/ 2/1940
5 14.0" 11/19/1941
6 13.4" 10/13/2008
7 13.3" 11/ 6/2000
8 13.0" 10/12/2008, 4/ 9/1995, 1/26/1916

The Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet
There are still three weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, and the way this year has gone, I wouldn't be surprised to see the season's 20th named storm--Tropical Storm Valerie--sometime this month. One potential candidate is a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms that has developed about 800 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa. However, wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and any development should be slow. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, do not develop the disturbance, and show it drifting slowly to the northwest over the next few days. In their 7 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday morning.

A better candidate to become Valerie is an area of low pressure that is predicted to develop between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. The GFS model shows this low becoming a subtropical cyclone as it gets pulled to the north or north-northeast late next week.

Jeff Masters

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMING FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14317
This is great news for the clean up efforts up there.....
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPS AND DEW PTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS.

FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET PERIOD TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE US. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE BACK
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TREK NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
INTERIOR NEW YORK...SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THIS
MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TODAY...RESULTING IN
HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.

&&
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SREFF is showing a significant tornado outbreak late today along a squall line Oklahoma to Nebraska.

Mid-level jet over 100 knots

Stay tuned

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=l atest&id=SREF_prob_sigtor_3__
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

Melting sea ice has zero effect on mean sea levels. It's ice melting on land that raises sea levels. Jam as many ice cubes as you can in a glass of coke and let me know if it overflows as the ice metls.


Sar,

Melting sea ice allows more water vapor to get into the Arctic atmosphere and that also adds energy to that atmosphere. That energy is transported southward in the waves of the jet stream and will cause havoc in the temperate regions for the next couple of months. Probably by 01/13 that affect will be gone but there will be significant snow cover in portions of the Northern Hemisphere.

If you're interested in these subjects, google Jennifer Francis and check out some of her lectures. They are very informative. My favorite is her longest one, however this one is to the point.
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around Tampa Bay thru monday.................
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GFS at 120 hours..............
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Good Morning Folks!.warming up here this week.....
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201. Neapolitan
11:37 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting sar2401:

Melting sea ice has zero effect on mean sea levels. It's ice melting on land that raises sea levels. Jam as many ice cubes as you can in a glass of coke and let me know if it overflows as the ice metls.
He never mentioned rising sea levels. For years, scientists have been stating the obvious: that the sudden openness of millions of square kilometers of energy-absorbing polar waters was going to wreak havoc on "normal" weather patterns. And now there's much speculation that the abnormally strong blocking high that set up over Greenland and eventually helped direct Sandy westward--forcing the storm to move against its natural high-latitude inclination to recurve eastward--may have been strengthened by the incredible amount of suddenly available excess Arctic energy. I'm sure much research and many papers will result from the phenomenon; I'll be very curious as to the findings.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13554
200. Tropicsweatherpr
11:32 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Good morning.

Cooler temperatures by Puerto Rico standards will be here this weekend as a cold front reaches us. Also, scattered showers moving from the Atlantic will reinforce that cooler feeling here. I love this kind of weather.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14317
199. sar2401
11:09 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting Manhattancane:


This was the highest water since before there was no New York City! 400 years! And not by a little, by 2.68 feet! (over 11.2) And from mean sea level it's more like 11.3 vs. 8.6 The storm went almost westward! I guess the till-now damage might've been more than the average of many random butterfly effect simulations but you can't deny the record sea ice melt is stacking the deck.

Melting sea ice has zero effect on mean sea levels. It's ice melting on land that raises sea levels. Jam as many ice cubes as you can in a glass of coke and let me know if it overflows as the ice metls.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16055
198. sar2401
10:58 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


I live in Sunrise (FL) and have been through quite a number of storms, including Andrew and Wilma.

Also wondered what the colorful flashes where. If they were transformers blowing then the light was getting transmitted in amazing fashion. Because what I saw was the kind of lightning that lights entire clouds up, and the colors were strange greens and blues.

Gas excitation in the atmosphere. Colorful Lightning
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16055
197. SunriseSteeda
10:28 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


So the 1st line of Dr Masters Blog should read.... Devastating Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report.

Correct or incorrect???



HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
700 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
196. AussieStorm
10:20 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


Post-tropical.. Look back in Angela's blogs. Very recent..there was an excellent guest blogger that went over it with a fine tooth comb.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Sandy was post-tropical before landfall. I think it was the second to last advisory over water when she was declared post-tropical.


So the 1st line of Dr Masters Blog should read.... Devastating Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report.

Correct or incorrect???
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
195. SunriseSteeda
10:09 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting davemaine:
For those of you who have lived through more hurricanes than I...have you ever seen the sky light up rainbow colors? What I saw was definitely not lightning or transformers blowing up. This was the whole sky lighting up grass green, red, sometimes purple. The flashes of light lasted way longer than a typical flash of lightning and there was no thunder. I've never seen anything like it before. Scariest storm ever! Any idea what it was?

Thanks and I hope everyone affected by Sandy is safe!
Action: Quote | Ignore User



yes i am in central maine and during the 1998 ice storm i saw the similiar thing , tranformers lighting up the sky almost continuously. it was transformers blowing up, we lost power for 7 days with 10-20 degree weather no fun but unforgetable!!


I live in Sunrise (FL) and have been through quite a number of storms, including Andrew and Wilma.

Also wondered what the colorful flashes where. If they were transformers blowing then the light was getting transmitted in amazing fashion. Because what I saw was the kind of lightning that lights entire clouds up, and the colors were strange greens and blues.
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 484
194. Matthias1967
7:57 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting weatherdogg:


Obviously, the devil is in the details, namely (pun intended) how they define "named storm". I suspect the legalase in the insurance policy contracts is sophisticated enough to distinguish between a storm named by the NHC versus one named by a news agency or private company, but who knows.


They just might try. They're people out believing some election commission that they don't have appropriate identification so why should't there be house owners believing what the insurance is telling them. There is no judge if there is no indictment.
Member Since: August 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
193. KoritheMan
7:04 AM GMT on November 10, 2012

Quoting eyeofbetsy:


What's stacking the deck is that big burning ball of nuclear fusion hurling the solar winds at us. The magnectic field determines how much solar particles gets thru that affect the rate of water vapor production and thusly cloud cover. I don't believe there is any empirical evidence that CO2 drives climate. Many of the scientist producing that data say there are uncertainties, which pretty much means keep the grants coming for further study.
I would very much like to see this so called "data", because everything I've ever researched has definitely cited empirical evidence of CO2's inherent warming effect.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
192. LostInUtah
6:50 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Blustery here in SE Utah (Moab), had some pea sized hail today and a bit of much needed rain, but not much. Not much else to say, so g'night, mates.
Member Since: November 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
191. wxchaser97
6:38 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
I hate when this happens with the blog eating posts...ok it is working again.

For anyone who can see this, the latest Euro run is running. This is at 144hrs.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
190. wxchaser97
6:33 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Test...
Some of my posts were being eaten on different blogs.

On this day in history...
On November 10, 1975 an infamous intense fall storm centered over the Great Lakes sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior. 29 crew men lost their lives because of this storm.

Lastly, I have actually got some rain from a shower. While it doesn't sound significant, it is the first rain drops since Sandy basically.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
189. eyeofbetsy
6:28 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting Manhattancane:


This was the highest water since before there was no New York City! 400 years! And not by a little, by 2.68 feet! (over 11.2) And from mean sea level it's more like 11.3 vs. 8.6 The storm went almost westward! I guess the till-now damage might've been more than the average of many random butterfly effect simulations but you can't deny the record sea ice melt is stacking the deck.


What's stacking the deck is that big burning ball of nuclear fusion hurling the solar winds at us. The magnectic field determines how much solar particles gets thru that affect the rate of water vapor production and thusly cloud cover. I don't believe there is any empirical evidence that CO2 drives climate. Many of the scientist producing that data say there are uncertainties, which pretty much means keep the grants coming for further study.
Member Since: July 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 49
188. wxchaser97
6:19 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quick question. Was Sandy a Hurricane on landfall or a Post-tropical cyclone?

I thought she transitioned to a PST 30miles from the coast.

Sandy was post-tropical before landfall. I think it was the second to last advisory over water when she was declared post-tropical.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
187. Skyepony (Mod)
6:19 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quick question. Was Sandy a Hurricane on landfall or a Post-tropical cyclone?

I thought she transitioned to a PST 30miles from the coast.


Post-tropical.. Look back in Angela's blogs. Very recent..there was an excellent guest blogger that went over it with a fine tooth comb.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38159
186. AussieStorm
6:16 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quick question. Was Sandy a Hurricane on landfall or a Post-tropical cyclone?

I thought she transitioned to a PST 30miles from the coast.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
185. wxchaser97
6:16 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Tonight is one of those nights/mornings where I could've been to sleep early but chose not to. I may be up another hour or two trying to work on a blog. Of course I have to be up between 7am and 8am this morning. Here is my snowfall and US weather graphic..
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
184. KoritheMan
6:06 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
I sure hope my manager knows how much I love him. I was looking forward to sleeping in today, what with another 4:00 shift and all, but one of our guys is out of town for the weekend, so he wants me to cover 9:00 to 6:00 for him today and Sunday. Ugh.

I suppose the only positive is that I'm garnering a few more hours on an otherwise enormously destitute week.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
183. wxchaser97
5:58 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


I gotcha. Me and my brother used to do that (we'd talk to each other through Yahoo Instant Messenger) until we realized how stupid it was. Also, you merely "like" your dad? You don't love him? tsk tsk

(Kidding, in case that wasn't obvious. I know you're a good fellow)

Lol, of course I love him... I could tell you were joking. He just got back from a long business trip from Europe! He doesn't know about the very warm weekend, possible tropical development, and even some snow yet. I guess you could say I am slacking in telling him the latest weather info.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
182. KoritheMan
5:53 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

It would be strange to be talking to him through the computer about the weather when he would be literally 10 feet away. I don't have anything to hide and I like my dad a lot.


I gotcha. Me and my brother used to do that (we'd talk to each other through Yahoo Instant Messenger) until we realized how stupid it was. Also, you merely "like" your dad? You don't love him? tsk tsk

(Kidding, in case that wasn't obvious. I know you're a good fellow)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
181. Manhattancane
5:51 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting eyeofbetsy:
For decades we've been told that sooner or later another hurricane was going to strike the northeast and cause catastrophic damage. There was no mention of global warming. Now that it has happened some are saying AGW is why it happened. Storms of that magnitude have probably hit the northeast U.S. two or three times a century for thousands of years. These alarmist only weaken their argument with such claims and it becomes more obvious it's agenda driven. And with Santa Claus back for four more years your agenda is full steam ahead.


This was the highest water since before there was no New York City! 400 years! And not by a little, by 2.68 feet! (over 11.2) And from mean sea level it's more like 11.3 vs. 8.6 The storm went almost westward! I guess the till-now damage might've been more than the average of many random butterfly effect simulations but you can't deny the record sea ice melt is stacking the deck.
Member Since: August 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
180. Doppler22
5:51 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
... night people
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3772
179. wxchaser97
5:44 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


How would that be awkward? My dad lurks, and I'm sure he sees my comments all the time. I have nothing to hide. Do you?

It would be strange to be talking to him through the computer about the weather when he would be literally 10 feet away. I don't have anything to hide and I like my dad a lot.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
178. wxchaser97
5:42 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting Doppler22:

Lucky.......................

I know right, I am excited if that happens.
Me right now, link(there is no offensive language or anything like that)

Quoting Slamguitar:


Did I hear LES?? Haha, had to pop in. I see our AOI just NW of CV is back to 10%.

Hey fellow Michigander! I already saw my first trace with Sandy.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
177. KoritheMan
5:41 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
That it would be errr interesting and awkward with my dad and I both on here at the same time.


How would that be awkward? My dad lurks, and I'm sure he sees my comments all the time. I have nothing to hide. Do you?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
176. Slamguitar
5:36 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
Well, the first Lake Effect Snow(LES) event looks to take shape in Michigan on Sunday and Monday. The CPC hazards map shows heavy snow threat on 11/12-11/13. There could also be a rain to snow event from the front. I will have more details on Sunday with my local forecast.


Did I hear LES?? Haha, had to pop in. I see our AOI just NW of CV is back to 10%.
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
175. Doppler22
5:32 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
Well, the first Lake Effect Snow(LES) event looks to take shape in Michigan on Sunday and Monday. The CPC hazards map shows heavy snow threat on 11/12-11/13.

Lucky.......................
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3772
174. wxchaser97
5:31 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Well, the first Lake Effect Snow(LES) event looks to take shape in Michigan on Sunday and Monday. The CPC hazards map shows heavy snow threat on 11/12-11/13. There could also be a rain to snow event from the front. I will have more details on Sunday with my local forecast.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
172. wxchaser97
5:26 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
What are you implying? ;)
That it would be errr interesting and awkward with my dad and I both on here at the same time.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
171. Doppler22
5:26 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

All I remember is the infamous storms and there being a lot of storms. If a season like that happened now, things would be different. My dad and I actually do things similar like that, he even has his own WU account. Luckily he doesn't come on here, at least not right now.

All i remember (considering my memory stinks) is hearing about Katirina and Rita. I don't remember as much about Wilma, Dennis or Emily.
And if my dad came on to WU... i'd get off :p
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3772
170. KoritheMan
5:25 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:
 Luckily he doesn't come one here, at least not right now.
What are you implying? ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
169. wxchaser97
5:21 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


I remember telling my dad that Alpha was named (he's also into weather, enough that we have our own forecasts and disagreements) and he just laughed, like he wasn't surprised at all. 2005 was just that awesome.

All I remember is the infamous storms and there being a lot of storms. If a season like that happened now, things would be different. My dad and I actually do things similar like that, he even has his own WU account. Luckily he doesn't come on here, at least not right now.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
168. Manhattancane
5:20 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting calkevin77:
The pic of the flooded subway terminal that Dr. Master's posted is quite startling. My sister who lives in NYC also sent a few shots of her old neighborhood in the lower east side and that area had major flooding as well. I think Sandy was a wakeup call to all that when you have a significant amount of a city's infrastructure underground it doesn't take much water to bring the city to its knees. Even if the entire city had evacuated, there would still be quite a mess to mop up so to speak. Some of those tunnels in the subway system are pushing 80 years old so who knows if there has been any structural compromise to the system. Whoever can figure out how to self contain the system and effectively design the proverbial "subway storm door" will be a very rich man or woman.


Pushing 80 is kind of young. Under river tubes 100 feet below sea level and 104 years old were filled to the brim (Monday evening and served the public Saturday morning, lol)
Member Since: August 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
167. Doppler22
5:18 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

That probably is a good thing right now...


It would be really cool to see, a first for me as I wasn't as much into tropical weather in 05, but it is unlikely.

yeah that would be kind of cool to see Alpha
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3772
166. KoritheMan
5:17 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

That probably is a good thing right now...


It would be really cool to see, a first for me as I wasn't as much into tropical weather in 05, but it is unlikely.


I remember telling my dad that Alpha was named (he's also into weather, enough that we have our own forecasts and disagreements) and he just laughed, like he wasn't surprised at all. 2005 was just that awesome.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
165. wxchaser97
5:16 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting Dragod66:
so i guess chat isnt working

That probably is a good thing right now...

Quoting KoritheMan:


Reaching Alpha is still just a fantasy, as extraordinary as it would be.

It would be really cool to see, a first for me as I wasn't as much into tropical weather in 05, but it is unlikely.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
163. Grothar
5:15 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh OSCAT..not to the surface yet..


Nice swirl, Skye

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
162. Dragod66
5:13 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
so i guess chat isnt working
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 614
161. KoritheMan
4:55 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The 18z GFS developed a total of four systems in the last run.


The first one is by 66 hours from our disturbance out in the Atlantic. Weakens it quickly, so I doubt it would make so much as a 45mph Tropical Storm.

The second one is by 102 hours, north of Puerto Rico, and is probably a sub-tropical system.

The third one is by 150 hours, out by where the first developed, and is stronger.

The fourth one is similar to the second one, sub-tropical in nature.

That would take us to Beta. Guess is we'll see at least one more named this year.


Reaching Alpha is still just a fantasy, as extraordinary as it would be.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20829
160. iceagecoming
4:42 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm always amused by those who make it known that they're placing someone with whom they've been debating on the ignore list. This, the forum equivalent of angrily picking up one's ball and going home, is as sure a sign as any that the person acknowledges they've lost. ;-)

But I have to say that it appears some here may still be struggling with the finer meaning of terms such as "dialog", or "discussion", or "debate". See, when in a public forum someone writes something to which others disagree, it's very common--indeed, expected--that those others will respond. So if someone "challenge[s] the logic and form of [my] argument", it's only natural that I would "continue it" by answering them in return. That's part of the dynamic, two-way, give-and-take nature of online debate. Anyone who cares to "challenge the logic and form of [an] argument" without themselves being challenged in return would be better off simply mumbling those challenges into an empty room so no one can hear them. Otherwise, it's all fair game.

On another note, it's important to keep in mind that the real value of any particular comment can't be measured by counting how many people respond to it, or quote it, or vote it up. No, the only true measure of a comment's worth is how many people find it useful, or thought-provoking, or touching, or profound. Popularity contests are for junior high school; grown-ups should try to use different metrics.


Really, you and others should heed that advice.

Back to empirical weather data:







Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 24 Comments: 1072
159. allancalderini
4:39 AM GMT on November 10, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh OSCAT..not to the surface yet..
Do you think it would develop Skye?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.