Sandy the 11th U.S. billion-dollar disaster of 2012

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2012

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Devastating Hurricane Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report. This puts 2012 in second place for most U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters behind 2011, when NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) counted fourteen such disasters. AON Benfield rated seventeen events as billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011, so the actual number of such disasters has considerable uncertainty depending upon who is doing the estimates. NCDC has not yet released their official figures for 2012's billion-dollar weather disasters, and we might expect that their total could be 20% lower than AON Benfield's, judging by what happened in 2011. This would give 2012 nine billion-dollar weather disasters, which would still put 2011 in second place for most billion-dollar weather disasters. Although damages due to weather-related disasters are increasing, we cannot yet say climate change is to partially to blame. There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change, as I explain in my January 2012 post, "Damage losses and climate change". We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that--such as the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer.


Figure 1. The escalators down to the South Ferry subway station in Lower Manhattan's Financial District lie flooded in the wake of Hurricane Sandy's storm surge on October 29, 2012. Total economic damage from Hurricane Sandy has been estimated at $30 - $50 billion by EQECAT. Image credit: New York MTA and Associated Press.


Figure 2. The U.S. has experienced eleven weather-related disasters costing at least $1 billion in 2012, according to data taken from the AON Benfield October 2012 Catastrophe Report. AON Benfield has not made a damage estimate for the 2012 Midwest drought, but according to National Crop Insurance Services, crop insurance losses alone will total $20 billion. The total cost of the drought could be more than $77 billion, said Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August. As Nick Sundt of the WWF summarizes in a nice blog post, this year will probably be the second most costly year since 1980 in terms of billion-dollar weather-related disasters.


Figure 3. Number of weather-related U.S. billion-dollar disasters per year (blue bars) from 1980 - 2012, and the total cost of these disasters (red and dark blue lines, with the red line showing the inflation-adjusted costs.) Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Winter Storm Brutus bringing blizzard conditions to Montana
Winter Storm Brutus is bringing blizzard conditions to Northeast Montana, with heavy snow and high winds that have gusted to 45 mph. Brutus has dumped a widespread area of 4 - 6 inches of snow over large portions of Montana since Thursday afternoon, with 7 - 10 inches reported in the Great Falls area and 17" in the mountains near Glacier National Park. According to the Glasgow, MT NWS Facebook page, the current storm has the potential to be a top-ten snowfall event for the area, with records going back 115 years. The storm will affect Montana and western North Dakota through Saturday morning, then push north-northeastwards into Canada.

Top ten 2-day snow events in Glasgow, Montana history:

1 15.0" 4/18/1896
2 14.3" 12/27/2003
3 14.1" 4/ 3/1940, 4/ 2/1940
5 14.0" 11/19/1941
6 13.4" 10/13/2008
7 13.3" 11/ 6/2000
8 13.0" 10/12/2008, 4/ 9/1995, 1/26/1916

The Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet
There are still three weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, and the way this year has gone, I wouldn't be surprised to see the season's 20th named storm--Tropical Storm Valerie--sometime this month. One potential candidate is a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms that has developed about 800 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa. However, wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and any development should be slow. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, do not develop the disturbance, and show it drifting slowly to the northwest over the next few days. In their 7 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday morning.

A better candidate to become Valerie is an area of low pressure that is predicted to develop between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. The GFS model shows this low becoming a subtropical cyclone as it gets pulled to the north or north-northeast late next week.

Jeff Masters

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G'morning wxchaser97,
Did you post a new blog update on "Brutus"?
If you did I don't see it..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Quoting Dragod66:


where is the Azores high?

It went on Holiday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

I stole it...jk.


thief!... jk
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


2 billion in Cuba, a good 2-3 billion in Jamaica, 20 billion in New Jersey, 10 billion elsewhere. So, I think around 63 billion sounds right.

Anyone got a good replacement name for Sandy btw?

Thinking Sandra would be fine.

Sananda or Sara sounds cool to me. Also isn't Sandra just the longer version of Sandy?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
FEMA Sandy ‏@FEMASandy
(11/10) @fema staff will be across #NY today in: #RichmondCounty, #StatenIsland, #Manhattan, #NewYorkCounty.

FEMA Sandy ‏@FEMASandy
(11/10) @fema staff will be across #NY today in: #Jamaica, #RockawayBeach, #QueensCounty, #Bronx, #WestchesterCounty.

FEMA Sandy ‏@FEMASandy
(11/10) @fema staff will be across #NY today in: #SuffolkCounty, #Bellmore, #NassauCounty, #Brooklyn, #KingsCounty.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
I think Global warming is over. It is only 70 here today in Fort Lauderdale. I have noticed the temperatures dropping the past few weeks now.

It's only 75 here in Nassau. Sandy brought winter with her, despite the fact she came from the south...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
Quoting Neapolitan:
If ever anything deserved to be called stupid, it was this past summer's vote by North Carolina's General Assembly to outright reject science. And no one needs to have met that group's "yay" voters to know just how utterly stupid they were.

To recap the story in brief: scientists advising North Carolina's Coastal Resources Commission said that, based on numerous scientific studies, the state should prepare for about 39 inches of sea level rise by 2100. A coastal economic development group--NC-20--decided that wouldn't work for them, and that denialism of science would be more profitable. So this group of developers convinced a majority of the Republican-led General Assembly to pass a law requiring that those scientists not be listened to in favor of making up their own simplistic, non-scientific projections that, of course, predict a far smaller sea level rise in North Carolina. Because, you know, oceanside condos for everyone!

Stupid. Stupid, stupid, stupid...


Big Brother and $$$= Blind Avid Denial
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Quoting Dragod66:


where is the Azores high?

I stole it...jk.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Morning all.

I think storms like Sandy come along every now and again to remind us that there but for the grace of God go I... IOW, it was easy for some pple away from the impacts of Katrina to talk about "why do they live there if hurricanes can cause so much devastation?"... and call people stupid for rebuilding in the same area. But there have been so many devastating natural disasters just in the US over the last 10 years, many wx related, that I can't understand how anybody can take this holier-than-thou stance. It's really "luckier-than-thou", isn't it?

My heart, and my prayers, go out to the NY / NJ residents still without power in this colder time of the year. When we endure weeks without power in November in the temperate zone, at least we don't also have to worry about freezing to death.... :o/
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484


where is the Azores high?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


you got nothing else better to do on a saturday morning but wake up and get on a weather board and call people you have never met in your life stupid on account of a group called the "Geological Society of America"..good thing the "Bridge Players Of North America" didn't vote down the new rule of 5 hand draw or you will be going after them too and calling them stupid..everyone else living above the bridge have a good day!
If ever anything deserved to be called stupid, it was this past summer's vote by North Carolina's General Assembly to outright reject science. And no one needs to have met that group's "yay" voters to know just how utterly stupid they were.

To recap the story in brief: scientists advising North Carolina's Coastal Resources Commission said that, based on numerous scientific studies, the state should prepare for about 39 inches of sea level rise by 2100. A coastal economic development group--NC-20--decided that wouldn't work for them, and that denialism of science would be more profitable. So this group of developers convinced a majority of the Republican-led General Assembly to pass a law requiring that those scientists not be listened to in favor of making up their own simplistic, non-scientific projections that, of course, predict a far smaller sea level rise in North Carolina. Because, you know, oceanside condos for everyone!

Stupid. Stupid, stupid, stupid...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13456
Good late morning everyone, I see the GFS has shown the Greek alphabet at times. I highly doubt that will happen, more like one or maybe two storms. Also the 12z run is out to 108hrs.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
I think naming winter storms is a bad idea. Now everytime you turn on the T.V. you hear about a storm with a name.
To me, that will have the opposite effect of warning people.

People will get so used to hearing named storms that they will begin to ignore them.

I feel that named storms should be left for Tropical system.

This is just my opionion, but it seems to be shared by all my friends, family, and people I work with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
"If democracy is such a good idea, how do we explain that such unutterably stupid people wind up as our elected leaders?

Link
The AVERAGE IQ is 100. Case closed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
New York governor Andrew Cuomo said yesterday that Hurricane Sandy caused $33 billion in his state alone. The final damage total for the storm will probably surpass $60 billion.

On a good note (I guess...), the death toll has stopped at 113 in the United States.


2 billion in Cuba, a good 2-3 billion in Jamaica, 20 billion in New Jersey, 10 billion elsewhere. So, I think around 63 billion sounds right.

Anyone got a good replacement name for Sandy btw?

Thinking Sandra would be fine.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New York governor Andrew Cuomo said yesterday that Hurricane Sandy caused $33 billion in his state alone. The final damage total for the storm will probably surpass $60 billion.

On a good note (I guess...), the death toll has stopped at 113 in the United States.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ABC 33/40 Storm Chaser Live!

Live Video streaming by Ustream

Storm Spotter Training
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FEMA Sandy ‏@FEMASandy
(11/10) Stay connected in #NJ: Locations are available for charging your phone and connecting to Wi-Fi. http://ow.ly/f81j7 #Sandy


FEMA Sandy ‏@FEMASandy
(11/10) #Queens, #Brooklyn, #StatenIsland residents: click here for food/water/blanket distribution sites: http://ow.ly/fbfd0 , 12-4pm
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Dak......I'm sure it is absolutely terrible, BUT, I aways hate to see the utility companies getting ragged on...These poor linemen from all over the country are working unbelieveable hours, and in unbelieveable conditions, trying to get these people back in power... Just like FPL linemen that do not experience the cold weather here in south Florida... Our guys are not prepared. Just like every hurricane we have had here in Florida the utility companies "ALWAYS" are blamed for the slow progress of getting power back. I honestly think the the utility companies are a "scape goat" when things don't go to their liking. I really do feel sorry for the people up north, but please don't pin all of the blame on the poor guys out there working their butts off that are away from their families trying their best to get it done.
H

I do not know how you got that out of my post. I have worked disaster areas and I know that there are long hours and thousands out there doing their best. I am NOT blaming the workers for anything. Sandy caused it. As horrible as it is here without power, to me it would be horrific to be in freezing temps and snow without heat. (assumes you need power to heat your house - most people I know in the NE do need power for heat)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
I think Global warming is over. It is only 70 here today in Fort Lauderdale. I have noticed the temperatures dropping the past few weeks now.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
Billings,Montana webcam and info..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
"This summer the North Carolina Senate passed a bill banning researchers from reporting predicted increases in the rate of sea level rise. But the ocean, unbound by legislation, is rising anyway %u2014 and in North Carolina this rise is accelerating, researchers reported here yesterday (Nov. 6) at the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America....

If democracy is such a good idea, how do we explain that such unutterably stupid people wind up as our elected leaders?

Link


you got nothing else better to do on a saturday morning but wake up and get on a weather board and call people you have never met in your life stupid on account of a group called the "Geological Society of America"..good thing the "Bridge Players Of North America" didn't vote down the new rule of 5 hand draw or you will be going after them too and calling them stupid..everyone else living above the bridge have a good day!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
I cannot imagine being without power and heat for weeks and weeks and weeks, maybe not even at thanksgiving..geez...Nearly two weeks after Hurricane Sandy knocked out power to millions of people, weary Queens residents still without electricity and heat blasted FEMA, LIPA and Con Edison on Friday for keeping them in the dark.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/queens/queens- calls-faster-recovery-efforts-article-1.1199737#ix zz2Bp2utGRq


FEMA ‏@fema
Reminder: check out the new @FEMASandy for all things related to the ongoing Hurricane #Sandy recovery efforts http://www.fema.gov/sandy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
"Three feet of snow fell south of Ulm, thanks to a constant band of precipitation falling Thursday and Friday, National Weather Service meteorologist Jonathan Suk said...."

(Great Falls, MT, news)

Link


Up to 4 feet of snow in Montana as storm hits West
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting percylives:


Sar,

Melting sea ice allows more water vapor to get into the Arctic atmosphere and that also adds energy to that atmosphere. That energy is transported southward in the waves of the jet stream and will cause havoc in the temperate regions for the next couple of months. Probably by 01/13 that affect will be gone but there will be significant snow cover in portions of the Northern Hemisphere.

If you're interested in these subjects, google Jennifer Francis and check out some of her lectures. They are very informative. My favorite is her longest one, however this one is to the point.


Back when I went to college, now some time ago, we were taught that the melting ice would not be the major factor in rising sea levels, as the expanded volume of the over all warmer waters was what would make the real impact. Or am I misremembering?

Physics peeps: If you heat a liter of water by 5 Centigrade, how much of an increase in volume is there, assuming that the water was at roughly room temperature to start?
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
Quoting Jedkins01:

Midday 100% midnight 0% LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Three feet of snow fell south of Ulm, thanks to a constant band of precipitation falling Thursday and Friday, National Weather Service meteorologist Jonathan Suk said...."

(Great Falls, MT, news)

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
Study: Climate change fulfilling most dire predictions

Link

(sorry if already posted)
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!.warming up here this week.....




That is due to a developing ridge pattern in the east. Probably a couple weeks of relatively warm weather before a trough pattern takes hold again and the cold spills back into our area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"This summer the North Carolina Senate passed a bill banning researchers from reporting predicted increases in the rate of sea level rise. But the ocean, unbound by legislation, is rising anyway — and in North Carolina this rise is accelerating, researchers reported here yesterday (Nov. 6) at the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America....

If democracy is such a good idea, how do we explain that such unutterably stupid people wind up as our elected leaders?

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 437
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If the GFS is right, we will reach the Greek letters in less than 5 days.


Yup, willing to bet we will see at least one more named, making 2012 tied with 1933 as the 2nd most active hurricane season in history (1933 used to have 21, but was knocked down to 20 and added two Category 5 hurricanes to the list)
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If the GFS is right, we will reach the Greek letters in less than 5 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
223. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 10 2012
======================================

A low pressure area may form over central parts of south Bay of Bengal around November 14th.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
No power and no heat in the Northeast at this time of year has got to be horrific. I feel for the people there.
Dak......I'm sure it is absolutely terrible, BUT, I aways hate to see the utility companies getting ragged on...These poor linemen from all over the country are working unbelieveable hours, and in unbelieveable conditions, trying to get these people back in power... Just like FPL linemen that do not experience the cold weather here in south Florida... Our guys are not prepared. Just like every hurricane we have had here in Florida the utility companies "ALWAYS" are blamed for the slow progress of getting power back. I honestly think the the utility companies are a "scape goat" when things don't go to their liking. I really do feel sorry for the people up north, but please don't pin all of the blame on the poor guys out there working their butts off that are away from their families trying their best to get it done.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just had a dream that the TV said "while this is very far out, FutureCast shows three nor'easters forming in a line interacting with a Cape Verde-type system strengthening it into a hurricane and the temperature reaches 98 in November." The thing grew a pretty large eyewall that nearly touched New York City and probably touched at least Massachusetts.
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Good Morning..00z CMC







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This has probably been explained but....can someone tell me why CNN is naming winter storms. Aren't these the usual winter storms we see every year?
Never mind. I googled it.
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Quoting Dakster:


Just to play the other side of the coin. A lot more and early snow is what I am reading in your post, right?

Snow reflects more sunlight because it is 'white' and not 'dark'. At least this is the argument given by the warming feedback loop in the arctic. Less snow/ice the more it melts...

Sounds like this is a way for 'mother nature' to balance out the temperature. (or at least mitigate)


Yes, this could be a very snowy fall and early winter in the temperate zone.

At Cryosphere Today's Interactive display today is a new record low for this date in the ice coverage of the Arctic. Today's reading is over 350,000 sq. km. below the old sea ice coverage minimum record set for this date in 2009.

The significant danger is in very slow moving jet stream waves. As Dr. Francis points out this could mean that a blizzard scenario could get stuck over a certain area and dump record amounts of snow, amounts we aren't prepared for. At this point we need to ask, is NYC or Washington, DC, ready for a blizzard that lasts for 4 days and drops 15 feet of snow on the city? Then the temps stay well below freezing for 3 weeks? The warming Arctic makes this a possibility.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 99
NASA seem to be getting their global temperature data out a little more quickly than usual. Globally, October was the second warmest October on record, at 0.69 degrees C above the 1951-80 average.

Link


Oddly, despite the record minimum Arctic Ocean sea ice area in September, the northern hemisphere average temperature for October was only the eighth warmest on record, at 0.77 degrees C above average.

And October in the southern hemisphere was the warmest October on record - by a whopping 0.09 degrees C. I wonder what caused that?

Link
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

Cooler temperatures by Puerto Rico standards will be here this weekend as a cold front reaches us. Also, scattered showers moving from the Atlantic will reinforce that cooler feeling here. I love this kind of weather.
Signs of the season for us here in "The island of the Enchantment", this is typical November weather, we "jibaros" (hillbillys), call it "nortes", or "northerns", Christmas is in the air...WEEEPA !!!!
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No power and no heat in the Northeast at this time of year has got to be horrific. I feel for the people there.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
A tremendous amount of damage was done before sandy made landfall or transitioned to post tropical cyclone. How will you determine how much damage was done prior to landfall or the name or classification of the storm being changed? If anything it probably should be call hurricane/post tropical cyclone sandy in my opinion. I know the naming is important for insurance purposes, but it still wreaked enough havoc to be labeled hurricane?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
I cannot imagine being without power and heat for weeks and weeks and weeks, maybe not even at thanksgiving..geez...Nearly two weeks after Hurricane Sandy knocked out power to millions of people, weary Queens residents still without electricity and heat blasted FEMA, LIPA and Con Edison on Friday for keeping them in the dark.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/queens/queens- calls-faster-recovery-efforts-article-1.1199737#ix zz2Bp2utGRq
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36856
Quoting percylives:


Sar,

Melting sea ice allows more water vapor to get into the Arctic atmosphere and that also adds energy to that atmosphere. That energy is transported southward in the waves of the jet stream and will cause havoc in the temperate regions for the next couple of months. Probably by 01/13 that affect will be gone but there will be significant snow cover in portions of the Northern Hemisphere.

If you're interested in these subjects, google Jennifer Francis and check out some of her lectures. They are very informative. My favorite is her longest one, however this one is to the point.


Just to play the other side of the coin. A lot more and early snow is what I am reading in your post, right?

Snow reflects more sunlight because it is 'white' and not 'dark'. At least this is the argument given by the warming feedback loop in the arctic. Less snow/ice the more it melts...

Sounds like this is a way for 'mother nature' to balance out the temperature. (or at least mitigate)
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10034
Down to 0%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMING FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14004

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.