Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Sandy the 11th U.S. billion-dollar disaster of 2012
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2012 +36
Devastating Hurricane Sandy was the eleventh billion-dollar weather-related disaster in the U.S. so far this year, and the most expensive, said insurance broker AON Benfield in their November 8, 2012 Catastrophe Report. This puts 2012 in second place for most U.S. billion-dollar weather disasters behind 2011, when NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) counted fourteen such disasters. AON Benfield rated seventeen events as billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011, so the actual number of such disasters has considerable uncertainty depending upon who is doing the estimates. NCDC has not yet released their official figures for 2012's billion-dollar weather disasters, and we might expect that their total could be 20% lower than AON Benfield's, judging by what happened in 2011. This would give 2012 nine billion-dollar weather disasters, which would still put 2011 in second place for most billion-dollar weather disasters. Although damages due to weather-related disasters are increasing, we cannot yet say climate change is to partially to blame. There are too many other complicating factors such as increases in wealth and population that may be responsible for the rise in damages, and there is too much noise in the data to see the signal of climate change, as I explain in my January 2012 post, "Damage losses and climate change". We are better off looking at the atmosphere itself to find evidence of climate change, and there are plenty of examples of that--such as the record loss of Arctic sea ice this summer.


Figure 1. The escalators down to the South Ferry subway station in Lower Manhattan's Financial District lie flooded in the wake of Hurricane Sandy's storm surge on October 29, 2012. Total economic damage from Hurricane Sandy has been estimated at $30 - $50 billion by EQECAT. Image credit: New York MTA and Associated Press.


Figure 2. The U.S. has experienced eleven weather-related disasters costing at least $1 billion in 2012, according to data taken from the AON Benfield October 2012 Catastrophe Report. AON Benfield has not made a damage estimate for the 2012 Midwest drought, but according to National Crop Insurance Services, crop insurance losses alone will total $20 billion. The total cost of the drought could be more than $77 billion, said Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August. As Nick Sundt of the WWF summarizes in a nice blog post, this year will probably be the second most costly year since 1980 in terms of billion-dollar weather-related disasters.


Figure 3. Number of weather-related U.S. billion-dollar disasters per year (blue bars) from 1980 - 2012, and the total cost of these disasters (red and dark blue lines, with the red line showing the inflation-adjusted costs.) Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Winter Storm Brutus bringing blizzard conditions to Montana
Winter Storm Brutus is bringing blizzard conditions to Northeast Montana, with heavy snow and high winds that have gusted to 45 mph. Brutus has dumped a widespread area of 4 - 6 inches of snow over large portions of Montana since Thursday afternoon, with 7 - 10 inches reported in the Great Falls area and 17" in the mountains near Glacier National Park. According to the Glasgow, MT NWS Facebook page, the current storm has the potential to be a top-ten snowfall event for the area, with records going back 115 years. The storm will affect Montana and western North Dakota through Saturday morning, then push north-northeastwards into Canada.

Top ten 2-day snow events in Glasgow, Montana history:

1 15.0" 4/18/1896
2 14.3" 12/27/2003
3 14.1" 4/ 3/1940, 4/ 2/1940
5 14.0" 11/19/1941
6 13.4" 10/13/2008
7 13.3" 11/ 6/2000
8 13.0" 10/12/2008, 4/ 9/1995, 1/26/1916

The Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet
There are still three weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, and the way this year has gone, I wouldn't be surprised to see the season's 20th named storm--Tropical Storm Valerie--sometime this month. One potential candidate is a concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms that has developed about 800 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of Africa. However, wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and any development should be slow. Our two most reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, do not develop the disturbance, and show it drifting slowly to the northwest over the next few days. In their 7 am EST Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday morning.

A better candidate to become Valerie is an area of low pressure that is predicted to develop between Bermuda and Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. The GFS model shows this low becoming a subtropical cyclone as it gets pulled to the north or north-northeast late next week.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Extreme Weather Brutus
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351. hydrus 6:47 PM GMT on November 10, 2012    
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238
352. VaStormGuy 6:50 PM GMT on November 10, 2012    
Member Since: October 30, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 83
353. wxchaser97 6:51 PM GMT on November 10, 2012    
It is supposed to get near 70F tomorrow and then struggle to get out of the 30s on Tuesday. This will be fun for my sinuses.

I am out for a while, bye everyone.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6741
354. eyeofbetsy 6:54 PM GMT on November 10, 2012    
Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually its good people aren't that worried about Climate Change. What good will it do for people to panic about something which is out of their control? It's good for people to be aware of it, and do their part to be more eco-friendly, but people shouldn't be panicking over GW, people are already stressed out enough as it is.




Agree. Let's concentrate our efforts on cleaner air and water. Technology has come a long ways in those efforts and will continue to do so. Fossil fuels are gonna be with us a long time providing the good jobs we need. When the green energy sources make economical sense it will happen. Trying to undermine the fossil fuel industry for some unrealistic political agenda is wrong.
Member Since: July 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
355. Neapolitan 6:59 PM GMT on November 10, 2012    
Quoting Jedkins01:



It's because they are more worked up about Climate Change and therefore they assume everyone else should too. I don't want to be critical but it's the truth. People have enough things in their lives to worry about as it is, we can't throw burdens upon them which is out of their control. I'm concerned over the destruction of natural Florida. However I can't be a hero of Florida nature and save it all. I can do my part. But I'm just a human. We live in a world where increasingly people are stressed out over Global issues which one man can't control, meanwhile their own family and personal life is getting out of control.

It's trying to fix problems from the wrong approach, it doesn't work. It creates stress, and division.
You write as though you're not aware that a large and growing number of people who truly do know about such things--a group which does not, by the way, include people like the Koch Brothers, Anthony Watts, or members of North Carolina's General Assembly--consider climate change the single largest threat mankind has ever faced in modern times. It's far more immediate and likely a threat than events such as a giant asteroid strike, or a supervolcano eruption, or global thermonuclear war, or a CME large enough to bring on long-term global chaos. Of course, it's true that how high the seas will rise over the next decade may not matter much to a man who's wondering what to feed his starving children for dinner tonight. But that doesn't take away the urgency or the reality of the situation.

Claiming that you can't be concerned with climate change because it's too "burdensome" makes as much sense as claiming that you can't worry about looking for a job because you're too busy digging through your sofa cushions for loose change. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11142
356. Dakster 7:03 PM GMT on November 10, 2012    
Quoting wxchaser97:
It is supposed to get near 70F tomorrow and then struggle to get out of the 30s on Tuesday. This will be fun for my sinuses.

I am out for a while, bye everyone.


I almost laughed at that post, but then I realized its snot that funny.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4920
357. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 7:06 PM GMT on November 10, 2012    
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
358. Hugo5 7:26 PM GMT on November 10, 2012    
Quoting yonzabam:
It's not that long since the average annual rise in atmospheric CO2 was 1.5 ppm. That was the figure that was, and often still is, quoted in the literature.

However, for the past ten years the average annual rise has been 2.1 ppm. This is a hugely important development which is largely being ignored. Maybe scientists don't want to be accused of scaremongering. The annual increase fluctuates a lot, and ten years isn't that long, so maybe they think it might be a 'blip'.

Those scientists who have drawn attention to it, have suggested increased industrialization and affluence in the east, particularly China, is the cause. While that will contribute, my own theory is that warming oceans are becoming less efficient carbon sinks.

The record year for high SSTs is the record El Nino year of 1998. Atmospheric CO2 surged by almost 3 ppm that year, another record. 3 ppm would have been equivalent to all anthropogenic CO2 for 1998.

The colder regions of the ocean absorb CO2, while the warmer regions outgas it. So, as the ocean warms, it will absorb a diminishing fraction of man made CO2. But, it gets scarier. There is no reason why the ocean would not warm to the point where it became a net emitter of CO2. This is a nightmare scenario. I have no idea to what extent the models factor this in, but it wouldn't surprise me if they ignore it completely due to the uncertainties involved.

There is a good correlation between global SSTs and annual rises in CO2. I posted a table illustrating the correlation on a local Internet forum a few years ago. I'll see if I can find it and repost it here, but as it's in tabular form, it might not cut and paste.


some of your facts need checking.
Member Since: June 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 43
359. yonzabam 7:33 PM GMT on November 10, 2012    
Quoting Hugo5:


some of your facts need checking.


Like which?
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1685

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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