Winter Storm Athena batters the Northeast; Brutus takes aim at Montana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on November 08, 2012

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“I am waiting for the locusts and pestilence next,” said New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at a press conference on Wednesday, after Winter Storm Athena punished New Jersey with heavy snows, high winds, and a 3-foot storm surge. The storm brought unexpectedly high snowfall amounts along a swath from Central New Jersey northeastwards across Southeast New York, Long Island, Connecticut, and South Central Massachusetts. The 4.7" of snow that fell at New York City's Central Park was the city's earliest 4-inch snowfall on record. The old record for earliest 4-inch snow was Nov. 23 in 1989. Last year's Snowtober storm brought the earliest 2" snowfall on record in NYC on October 29, 2011, but the city didn't surpass the 4.7" mark until January 21, as winter basically failed to show up. The 5.7" of snow that fell in Newark, NJ Wednesday was the heaviest single-day November snowfall on record in Newark (going back to 1931), and the earliest snowfall of that magnitude on record (the previous record was set just last year, when the Snowtober storm dumped 5.2" of snow on October 29, 2011.) Several locations in New Jersey and Connecticut recorded a foot a more of snow during Athena, with the storm's highest total of 13.5" recorded in Clintonville, CT. High winds combined with the heavy snows and rains to knock out power to 375,000 additional customers in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut yesterday, and a storm surge of 2 - 3.5' hit most of the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from Virginia to Massachusetts. The storm brought waves of 20' to the waters offshore of Long Island, NY and near Block Island, RI. The top winds over water were 61 mph, gusting to 76 mph, in Buzzard's Bay, MA. Here are the top wind gusts from Athena as of 8 am EST on Thursday, November 8, 2012:




Figure 1. A resident clears out destroyed household belongings from his flood-damaged home as snow falls on November 7, 2012 in the Staten Island borough of New York City. How often do you see snow falling on hurricane-damaged coasts? This sort of one-two weather punch is unprecedented in my lifetime. Image credit: AP.

The good news for the Northeast is that locusts and pestilence are not next, but rather sunny skies and a substantial warm-up. Athena, currently centered just south of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, will move off to the northeast today, leaving sunny skies in its wake. Highs will be near 50°F today in New York City, and will warm to mid-60s by this weekend.

Here comes Brutus: major blizzard coming for Montana
Right on the heels of Winter Storm Athena comes Winter Storm Brutus--a powerful low pressure system that is taking shape over Southern Montana this morning. Light snows have begun in Southwest Montana, and will spread to the northwest across much of Montana and into western North Dakota this afternoon through Saturday. As much as 12” to 18” of snowfall is expected for several major cities in Montana, including Great Falls, and over 2 feet is expected in the mountains.  According to the Glasgow, MT NWS Facebook page, the current storm total snowfall amounts north of the Missouri River/Fort Peck areas would be within the top 10 two day snowfall totals across this region, going back 115 years. Strong winds will combine with heavy snowfall to produce blizzard conditions across northeast Montana. Brutus is forming in response to an usually large loop in the jet stream over the Western U.S. On the east side of the jet stream axis, a southwesterly flow of air has pumped in record-breaking warm air from the Desert Southwest. Sheridan, Wyoming hit 79°F Wednesday, breaking their previous all-time monthly record of 78° set on Nov. 5, 1975. Records go back to 1893. However, Sheridan will be on the west side of jet stream by Saturday, as the cold front associated with Brutus passes through Wyoming. This will bring Sheridan powerful northwest winds, 4 - 8 inches of snow, and high temperatures 50° colder than Wednesday's.

Jeff Masters

Adding Insult to Injury (Ajax558)
Nor'easter snow after Hurricane Sandy
Adding Insult to Injury
Staten Island - after Hurricane Sandy (GregoryR)
Staten Island - after Hurricane Sandy
NOR'EASTER THE MORNING AFTER (Ralfo)
We received seven inches during the evening last night. I can't believe all the devastation that has happened! I fell so bad for all those that have lost their homes and now have to contend with this bad weather. Please say a Prayer for them! THANK YOU, Ralf.
NOR'EASTER THE MORNING AFTER
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474. Neapolitan
5:17 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
LOL, Neo. You do see in black and white, don't you? And I'm not talking about the color of anyone's Prius.

I popped in to remind you and your pals Esther and Karen that there are some who recognize the overall trend toward global warming has been happening for at least 15,000 years now - in North America anyway. In other words, we/they are not "deniers." At the same time, you will not convince us/them Sandy was worsened by "AGW" during this episode of As the Earth Turns. No reason to think so.

Baseball and steroids, bad analogy. You're talking humans. I'm talking natural processes.

(Add: response to 449. Neapolitan 3:38 PM GMT on November 09, 2012)
Sorry, BFOTR; I can't get much simpler than that analogy. One of the hallmarks of climate science--or any other type of--denialism is claiming that complex explanations are too detailed, while simple ones are too "black and white". IOW, your preconceptions will always prevent you from seeing the truth. But that's okay; science knows what's going on, even if you choose to ignore it. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
473. Neapolitan
5:14 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


You can't use one system to argue that its climate change....i mean you just bashed using anecdotal evidence a few minutes ago..
Second deadliest etc is the fault of population growth and expansion into dangerous areas, these same areas were vulnerable to a storm like this for hundreds of years and we never got lucky (or unlucky) enough for the timing to line up. This is something that easily couldve happened before and just never did in the short history we have...and for a while it probably wont happen again. I mean heck if this storm surge had peaked at low tide, it passes into history as one of the small billion dollar disasters, gone and forgotten after the much more minor coastline surge damage is repaired.
No, "...you can't use one system to argue that its climate change." What you can use is the number of extreme weather events that are increasing in both severity and frequency. And if you choose to ignore that, well, then, you are willfully ignorant. No?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
472. Barefootontherocks
4:39 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
I hope your right, but 200 years is far fetched in my eyes. The region gets its share of storms, and I would not be surprised if something like Sandy struck them again next year with the worlds weather changing the way it is.
Thanks for the response.

Saw roughly 400 years ago for historical comparison here and at weatherhistorian's blog. I picked 200 as a compromise. I can't help observing that we humans, in the US and possibly elsewhere, are cycling through that part of the circle where "middle of the road" seems a lost art.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18561
471. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
470. LargoFl
4:25 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
water temps going down..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
469. hydrus
4:25 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Fat Penguin,
Yes, it was a critical element that would not have been critical without a tropical cyclone in the picture. I can't help wondering how many times this type of blocking feature has happened. Could be another 200 years before another "Sandy" occurs.
I hope your right, but 200 years is far fetched in my eyes. The region gets its share of storms, and I would not be surprised if something like Sandy struck them again next year with the worlds weather changing the way it is.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21034
468. hydrus
4:22 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21034
467. LargoFl
4:21 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
GFS at 111 hours
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
466. Barefootontherocks
4:20 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Fat Penguin,
Yes, it was a critical element that would not have been critical without a tropical cyclone in the picture. I can't help wondering how many times this type of blocking feature has happened. Could be another 200 years before another "Sandy" occurs.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18561
465. LargoFl
4:19 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting Vindibunny:
Grew up on the Mississippi Gulf Coast (veteran of Fredrick and Elena) now living in New Jersey. Thought I had left those storms behind me. I made it through fine, just dealing with inconsistent power as many others are as well. Dad, who is still living down on the Coast (you can add Betsy, Camile, Katrina among other lesser storms to his list), called me up on the Saturday before the storm to go over the hurricane checklist with me. But I had gotten the generator and the bottle water earlier in the week when the first models were coming out.

The last thing we need is yet another storm. Lots of people without power and heat still and it's been cold. That's one thing people generally don't deal with during the aftermath of a hurricane. It's the cold that's really affecting people. Local township is giving out wood collected from cleaning all the fallen trees to people who don't have any heat. Everyone is asking for jackets and winter coats. Thankfully temperatures will be warming up this weekend and into early next week. That should help.
good luck up there..stay safe ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
464. LargoFl
4:18 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting TomballTXPride:


I'm no expert, but could this have something to do with it?





yes, great graphs here
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
463. Vindibunny
4:18 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Grew up on the Mississippi Gulf Coast (veteran of Fredrick and Elena) now living in New Jersey. Thought I had left those storms behind me. I made it through fine, just dealing with inconsistent power as many others are as well. Dad, who is still living down on the Coast (you can add Betsy, Camile, Katrina among other lesser storms to his list), called me up on the Saturday before the storm to go over the hurricane checklist with me. But I had gotten the generator and the bottle water earlier in the week when the first models were coming out.

The last thing we need is yet another storm. Lots of people without power and heat still and it's been cold. That's one thing people generally don't deal with during the aftermath of a hurricane. It's the cold that's really affecting people. Local township is giving out wood collected from cleaning all the fallen trees to people who don't have any heat. Everyone is asking for jackets and winter coats. Thankfully temperatures will be warming up this weekend and into early next week. That should help.
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
461. FatPenguin
4:11 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting atris:



Quoting Neapolitan:
Looking at that list, I count 4 pre-August storms, 14 August storms, 21 September storms, 9 storms that occurred in the first half of October, and just four that took place in the second half of October.

Of those latter four, NYC was affected by:

--The Great Storm of 1693, which made landfall in Virginia;
--The rains and wind of a minimal tropical storm that had been over land since making landfall in North Carolina (1872);
--The rains of another that made landfall in Virginia (1878);
--The "light rains" from Isbell (1964) as it passed offshore to the east.

Assuming the limited anecdotal evidence is correct, then, the only one of those four that could possibly compare to Sandy in terms of ferocity was "The Great Storm of 1693", which few were around to witness or document. But even then, the storm didn't make landfall from the east, but came up from the southwest, meaning it couldn't possibly have been as intense as Sandy was.

Hurricane Sandy, on the other hand, was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record; the most powerful storm ever to strike the New Jersey coast; the second costliest U.S. storm ever; the second deadliest U.S. storm in 40 years, and on and on and on. So comparing it to other previous storms is sort of pointless and disingenuous. The fact is, there hasn't been a storm so large or intense to affect the NYC area so late in the year for at least 400 years--and possibly much longer than that.

I wonder why that is...
++++++++
Maybe it had to do with the large front that attracted her on shore instead of going out to sea...


In my opinion, the blocking high pressure over Greenland was most anomalous element of this equation, and least talked about. Others can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it is a variation of the Arctic Dipole, which just came into existence over the last few years. We are seeing increasingly anomalous climatic events over the Arctic and they are directly related to the melting ice and warming Arctic Ocean.

This is why the odds are increasing that storms like Sandy, which take an odd left turn instead of heading east out to sea, could become more common.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 315
460. hydrus
4:11 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21034
458. Barefootontherocks
4:05 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
LOL, Neo. You do see in black and white, don't you? And I'm not talking about the color of anyone's Prius.

I popped in to remind you and your pals Esther and Karen that there are some who recognize the overall trend toward global warming has been happening for at least 15,000 years now - in North America anyway. In other words, we/they are not "deniers." At the same time, you will not convince us/them Sandy was worsened by "AGW" during this episode of As the Earth Turns. No reason to think so.

Baseball and steroids, bad analogy. You're talking humans. I'm talking natural processes.

(Add: response to 449. Neapolitan 3:38 PM GMT on November 09, 2012)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 152 Comments: 18561
457. hydrus
3:57 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting biff4ugo:
Storm diameter is 1,040 miles or a circular area of 0.849 million miles... or 23.668 trillion square feet.

Just estimating one gallon per surface square foot, at an increased temperature of 0.3 F due to global warming of ocean temperatures (tropical Atlantic increase over 60 year average) would be the equivalent of 7.1 trillion gallons up 1 degree... is 7.1 trillion BTUs of additional thermal energy in the top few inches of the ocean under hurricane Sandy. or 2.79 Billion extra horse power.
How is my math?

Do you think 2.79 billion horse power pushing wind or waves or rain could cause additional damage? That isn't even the top foot of ocean under Sandy.

So we can't talk about an individual storm, but we can talk about ocean temperature change, and available additional energy. And storm size can be talked about.
hummm.


edit>7.1 trillion btu's in perspective is 1,789 kton or a 10th of an atomic bomb's worth of additional energy in the top few inches of the ocean.
Good post. It shows the shear power of ocean heat be transferred into the atmospheric monstahs...:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21034
456. LargoFl
3:56 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
455. LargoFl
3:52 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
new GFS at 78 hours......................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
454. GeorgiaStormz
3:52 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Looking at that list, I count 4 pre-August storms, 14 August storms, 21 September storms, 9 storms that occurred in the first half of October, and just four that took place in the second half of October.

Of those latter four, NYC was affected by:

--The Great Storm of 1693, which made landfall in Virginia;
--The rains and wind of a minimal tropical storm that had been over land since making landfall in North Carolina (1872);
--The rains of another that made landfall in Virginia (1878);
--The "light rains" from Isbell (1964) as it passed offshore to the east.

Assuming the limited anecdotal evidence is correct, then, the only one of those four that could possibly compare to Sandy in terms of ferocity was "The Great Storm of 1693", which few were around to witness or document. But even then, the storm didn't make landfall from the east, but came up from the southwest, meaning it couldn't possibly have been as intense as Sandy was.

Hurricane Sandy, on the other hand, was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record; the most powerful storm ever to strike the New Jersey coast; the second costliest U.S. storm ever; the second deadliest U.S. storm in 40 years, and on and on and on. So comparing it to other previous storms is sort of pointless and disingenuous. The fact is, there hasn't been a storm so large or intense to affect the NYC area so late in the year for at least 400 years--and possibly much longer than that.

I wonder why that is...


You can't use one system to argue that its climate change....i mean you just bashed using anecdotal evidence a few minutes ago..
Second deadliest etc is the fault of population growth and expansion into dangerous areas, these same areas were vulnerable to a storm like this for hundreds of years and we never got lucky (or unlucky) enough for the timing to line up. This is something that easily couldve happened before and just never did in the short history we have...and for a while it probably wont happen again. I mean heck if this storm surge had peaked at low tide, it passes into history as one of the small billion dollar disasters, gone and forgotten after the much more minor coastline surge damage is repaired.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
453. ncstorm
3:50 PM GMT on November 09, 2012

We've been over this several times, haven't we?

I have stated--and will continue to say--that no one can say, "Sandy was caused by global warming." But by the same token, no one can say, "Sandy was not made worse by global warming." The steroids analogy used by some climatologists (which is so easy to understand, I'm not sure how people are still confused): Mark McGwire, who has admitted to using steroids, hit 70 home runs in 1998 (a record at that time). No person can look at any one of those 70 home runs and say, "Yes, that one was definitely caused by steroids." But that fact doesn't mean none of those home runs were made possible by McGwire's use of steroids. The thing is, McGwire had a great swing and a good eye, so he may very well have hit a large number of homers that year had he not been juiced--but he almost certainly wouldn't have hit so many, and the ones he hit almost certainly wouldn't have gone so far.


steroid analogy? You really need to stay off JB's twitter..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15185
452. LargoFl
3:49 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
well its supposed to warm up some today..maybe 75 here, waiting for the winds to change direction............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
451. LargoFl
3:46 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


500,000 people are still without power and gas is being rationed out..dire situation up there..those cities outside NY are falling off the radar unfortunately..
no i dont think they are forgotten, its a regional thing, if you read the newspapers from up there you will see all the stories etc..life does go on im afraid and people move on, we all know what happened up there, i have people in my family suffering up there myself and im guessing so do other posters here, so no one is forgetting them but again..its a regional thing, if tampa got hit by sandy..in 2 weeks new york would be talking about something else other than tampa..i scanned the news up there earlier this morning, lots of pics and stories up there still..people are suffering, many thousands and all we can do is watch and read and donate to charities etc..and life elsewhere..goes on..when wilma hit florida..how many days did other regions newspapers keep on reporting about it?..not many..its just the way it is im afraid..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
450. washingtonian115
3:45 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
I thought we were suppose to have more Katrina's from 2005 onward thanks to limate change or GW what ever the hell..

Now as I've said before I do think the planet is warming but with some of the people having alarmist post for every event that happens is going to be like crying wolf eventually.I even saw a article saying GW may cause more volcano eruptions in the future.It was a few years ago so sorry if I forget what website it was.

But my point I'm trying to make is I don't think every flood that happens..every hurricane that forms..and every fire is apart of GW/climate change.Some of them have been going on for millions of years and are natural phenomenons.

Well I'm done with the GW/climate change post and don't bother replying and leaving nasty comments.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16889
449. Neapolitan
3:38 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


Wait..I thought climate change was due to fossil fuels and fossil fuels have been used for how long? Im confuse?

Sandy just happened and to contribute Sandy to "climate change or GW" is premature, People on this blog love to use "facts" as an argument..it would take comprehensive studies to determine these "facts"..we wouldnt want to distort the agenda by using Sandy as a case when it hasn't even been proven yet...unless someone has a time machine and has already jetted into the future and conducted those studies and brought them back to present day, I will say until then, NY and NJ and any other state in the NE was just extremely unlucky in the set up of the weather pattern..
Yep, it's just "luck". Major heatwaves, increasingly profound droughts, intense storms, vanishing sea ice, acidifying oceans, monster tornado outbreaks, rising sea levels, desertification, disappearing glaciers, species migrations and extinctions--it's all just fortune. Coincidence. A giant roll of the climate die.

Yeah, that's probably it... ;-\
Quoting ncstorm:


again, Im confused by your statement..are you hinting that Sandy is a result of climate change?..because the next day after Sandy made landfall, you said in Dr. Masters blog that Sandy was due to climate change and we were all doomed..yada yada..and then later on that afternoon you stated it was too early to call Sandy as a result of climate change and for those alarmists who were stating so were being false..(of course, not in your exact words)..which is it?
We've been over this several times, haven't we?

I have stated--and will continue to say--that no one can say, "Sandy was caused by global warming." But by the same token, no one can say, "Sandy was not made worse by global warming." The steroids analogy used by some climatologists (which is so easy to understand, I'm not sure how people are still confused): Mark McGwire, who has admitted to using steroids, hit 70 home runs in 1998 (a record at that time). No person can look at any one of those 70 home runs and say, "Yes, that one was definitely caused by steroids." But that fact doesn't mean none of those home runs were made possible by McGwire's use of steroids. The thing is, McGwire had a great swing and a good eye, so he may very well have hit a large number of homers that year had he not been juiced--but he almost certainly wouldn't have hit so many, and the ones he hit almost certainly wouldn't have gone so far.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
448. washingtonian115
3:34 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


now Wash..you only supposed to look at the ocean heat..all that other stuff you said is meaningless in hurricanes..
Lol.Hey stating the facts here.Since people complain about how other's don't back up what they say I'm backing it up with facts!.All the ingrediants came together for a disaster to happen.They unfortunately came together at the wrong place/time to create this situation in which we see in front of us.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16889
447. ncstorm
3:29 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
People have compared Sandy to hurricanes like Ike,and Katrina.Which were both deadly and large systems oh and costly.So to compare Sandy to other hurricanes isn't that pointless.She's not a god of the hurricanes or whatever.She's not non comaprable.It's just that I eel as though Sandy affected a part of the coast line that isn't really that prepared for hurricanes and don't have the right building codes.Sandy was like the Ike(I really don't compare storms to Katrina) east coast style.Also that coast is shaped funny so of course your going to have higher storm surge values.Even for week storms like Sandy.Sandy's size(sound familiar to Ike) also contribute to higher storm surge values along with what time of the year it was for the tides to be at their highest.


now Wash..you only supposed to look at the ocean heat..all that other stuff you said is meaningless in hurricanes..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15185
446. beell
3:29 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
.

I wonder why that is...


Proof by verbosity?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16487
445. washingtonian115
3:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
People have compared Sandy to hurricanes like Ike,and Katrina.Which were both deadly and large systems oh and costly.So to compare Sandy to other hurricanes isn't that pointless.She's not a god of the hurricanes or whatever.She's not non comaprable.It's just that I feel as though Sandy affected a part of the coast line that isn't really that prepared for hurricanes and don't have the right building codes.Sandy was like the Ike(I really don't compare storms to Katrina) east coast style.Also that coast is shaped funny so of course your going to have higher storm surge values.Even for week storms like Sandy.Sandy's size(sound familiar to Ike) also contribute to higher storm surge values along with what time of the year it was for the tides to be at their highest.

And BTW..I'm f___ing awesome.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16889
444. ncstorm
3:22 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Looking at that list, I count 4 pre-August storms, 14 August storms, 21 September storms, 9 storms that occurred in the first half of October, and just four that took place in the second half of October.

Of those latter four, NYC was affected by:

--The Great Storm of 1693, which made landfall in Virginia;
--The rains and wind of a minimal tropical storm that had been over land since making landfall in North Carolina (1872);
--The rains of another that made landfall in Virginia (1878);
--The "light rains" from Isbell (1964) as it passed offshore to the east.

Assuming the limited anecdotal evidence is correct, then, the only one of those four that could possibly compare to Sandy in terms of ferocity was "The Great Storm of 1693", which few were around to witness or document. But even then, the storm didn't make landfall from the east, but came up from the southwest, meaning it couldn't possibly have been as intense as Sandy was.

Hurricane Sandy, on the other hand, was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record; the most powerful storm ever to strike the New Jersey coast; the second costliest U.S. storm ever; the second deadliest U.S. storm in 40 years, and on and on and on. So comparing it to other previous storms is sort of pointless and disingenuous. The fact is, there hasn't been a storm so large or intense to affect the NYC area so late in the year for at least 400 years--and possibly much longer than that.

I wonder why that is...


again, Im confused by your statement..are you hinting that Sandy is a result of climate change?..because the next day after Sandy made landfall, you said in Dr. Masters blog that Sandy was due to climate change and we were all doomed..yada yada..and then later on that afternoon you stated it was too early to call Sandy as a result of climate change and for those alarmists who were stating so were being false..(of course, not in your exact words)..which is it?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15185
443. atris
3:20 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Looking at that list, I count 4 pre-August storms, 14 August storms, 21 September storms, 9 storms that occurred in the first half of October, and just four that took place in the second half of October.

Of those latter four, NYC was affected by:

--The Great Storm of 1693, which made landfall in Virginia;
--The rains and wind of a minimal tropical storm that had been over land since making landfall in North Carolina (1872);
--The rains of another that made landfall in Virginia (1878);
--The "light rains" from Isbell (1964) as it passed offshore to the east.

Assuming the limited anecdotal evidence is correct, then, the only one of those four that could possibly compare to Sandy in terms of ferocity was "The Great Storm of 1693", which few were around to witness or document. But even then, the storm didn't make landfall from the east, but came up from the southwest, meaning it couldn't possibly have been as intense as Sandy was.

Hurricane Sandy, on the other hand, was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record; the most powerful storm ever to strike the New Jersey coast; the second costliest U.S. storm ever; the second deadliest U.S. storm in 40 years, and on and on and on. So comparing it to other previous storms is sort of pointless and disingenuous. The fact is, there hasn't been a storm so large or intense to affect the NYC area so late in the year for at least 400 years--and possibly much longer than that.

I wonder why that is...



Maybe it had to do with the large front that attracted her on shore instead of going out to sea...
Member Since: September 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
442. Neapolitan
3:10 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting ncstorm (#429):


these events have happened in history before..this is not the first time NY has flooded, seen severe weather or snow from a extratropical/tropical systems-the rest of the years are in the link for viewing from wikipedia

[snip]
Looking at that list, I count 4 pre-August storms, 14 August storms, 21 September storms, 9 storms that occurred in the first half of October, and just four that took place in the second half of October.

Of those latter four, NYC was affected by:

--The Great Storm of 1693, which made landfall in Virginia;
--The rains and wind of a minimal tropical storm that had been over land since making landfall in North Carolina (1872);
--The rains of another that made landfall in Virginia (1878);
--The "light rains" from Isbell (1964) as it passed offshore to the east.

Assuming the limited anecdotal evidence is correct, then, the only one of those four that could possibly compare to Sandy in terms of ferocity was "The Great Storm of 1693", which few were around to witness or document. But even then, the storm didn't make landfall from the east, but came up from the southwest, meaning it couldn't possibly have been as intense as Sandy was.

Hurricane Sandy, on the other hand, was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record; the most powerful storm ever to strike the New Jersey coast; the second costliest U.S. storm ever; the second deadliest U.S. storm in 40 years, and on and on and on. So comparing it to other previous storms is sort of pointless and disingenuous. The fact is, there hasn't been a storm so large or intense to affect the NYC area so late in the year for at least 400 years--and possibly much longer than that.

I wonder why that is...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13509
441. biff4ugo
3:07 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Storm diameter is 1,040 miles or a circular area of 0.849 million miles... or 23.668 trillion square feet.

Just estimating one gallon per surface square foot, at an increased temperature of 0.3 F due to global warming of ocean temperatures (tropical Atlantic increase over 60 year average) would be the equivalent of 7.1 trillion gallons up 1 degree... is 7.1 trillion BTUs of additional thermal energy in the top few inches of the ocean under hurricane Sandy. or 2.79 Billion extra horse power.
How is my math?

Do you think 2.79 billion horse power pushing wind or waves or rain could cause additional damage? That isn't even the top foot of ocean under Sandy.

So we can't talk about an individual storm, but we can talk about ocean temperature change, and available additional energy. And storm size can be talked about.
hummm.


edit>7.1 trillion btu's in perspective is 1,789 kton or a 10th of an atomic bomb's worth of additional energy in the top few inches of the ocean.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1566
440. washingtonian115
2:58 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
what should worry folks is human habits, somehow we love to live right on the shoreline, at the waters edge,it seems the storms today are growing in size and strength, and many more katrina's and sandy's will come..climate change wether it happens or not..millions are at risk and unless human habits change and we adapt to the change and make parkland along the coastlines..we will have many more nyc happenings etc..arguing about climate change doesnt mean anything in the real world..something terrible is coming down the pike and unless WE adapt to it..we go the way of the dinosaurs etc..they did not adapt..can we?
No it's what happens when you have greedy developers that want to build along the shores and charge high prices for the proporty.They keep building and building you see Miami..prime example.
Quoting ncstorm:


Wait..I thought climate change was due to fossil fuels and fossil fuels have been used for how long? Im confuse?

Sandy just happened and to contribute Sandy to "climate change or GW" is premature, People on this blog love to use "facts" as an argument..it would take comprehensive studies to determine these "facts"..we wouldnt want to distort the agenda by using Sandy as a case when it hasn't even been proven yet...unless someone has a time machine and has already jetted into the future and conducted those studies and brought them back to present day, I will say until then, NY and NJ and any other state in the NE was just extremely unlucky in the set up of the weather pattern..
Ohhhh don't say that they'll try to prove you wrong with facts you dinier!.

Seriously when people say dinier it sounds sorta like..Pre-K to me.Anyone else agree?.

As we have learned before Earth has went through cycles of warming and cooling.I don't think man is responsible for all that has happened like some people in the AGW crowed have said.Yes their are cleaner ways we can use stuff like our cars and other things that make a carbon print.But I'm not giving them up in the process.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16889
439. CoopsWife
2:54 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting presslord:


it's too damned early to be perky...


No it's not. I was perky 5 hours ago. Obnoxiously perky, as a matter of fact. :)
Member Since: June 19, 2006 Posts: 63 Comments: 4175
438. ncstorm
2:52 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I feel as though New Jersey is like the NOLA in this situation.Where it gets all the attention while other places(Like Staten island which would be the Mississipii in this case) isn't really talked about and is ignored by many.


500,000 people are still without power and gas is being rationed out..dire situation up there..those cities outside NY are falling off the radar unfortunately..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15185
437. ncstorm
2:50 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
note..not one of these dates means anything, ALL were before the climate change, and we could go even further back in time..does not matter one iota..if the climate IS changing..the record we track is from now on..and dont forget modern humans capable of tracking weather..have been here how long?..10,000 years maybe..a mere blink of an eye in earths history


Wait..I thought climate change was due to fossil fuels and fossil fuels have been used for how long? Im confuse?

Sandy just happened and to contribute Sandy to "climate change or GW" is premature, People on this blog love to use "facts" as an argument..it would take comprehensive studies to determine these "facts"..we wouldnt want to distort the agenda by using Sandy as a case when it hasn't even been proven yet...unless someone has a time machine and has already jetted into the future and conducted those studies and brought them back to present day, I will say until then, NY and NJ and any other state in the NE was just extremely unlucky in the set up of the weather pattern..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15185
436. LargoFl
2:50 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
what should worry folks is human habits, somehow we love to live right on the shoreline, at the waters edge,it seems the storms today are growing in size and strength, and many more katrina's and sandy's will come..climate change wether it happens or not..millions are at risk and unless human habits change and we adapt to the change and make parkland along the coastlines..we will have many more nyc happenings etc..arguing about climate change doesnt mean anything in the real world..something terrible is coming down the pike and unless WE adapt to it..we go the way of the dinosaurs etc..they did not adapt..can we?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
435. washingtonian115
2:47 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
I feel as though New Jersey is like the NOLA in this situation.Where it gets all the attention while other places(Like Staten island which would be the Mississipii in this case) isn't really talked about and is ignored by many.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16889
434. LargoFl
2:38 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


these events have happened in history before..this is not the first time NY has flooded, seen severe weather or snow from a extratropical/tropical systems-the rest of the years are in the link for viewing from wikipedia

Before 1800

between 1278 and 1438 %u2014 A major hurricane struck the modern-day New York/New Jersey area, probably the strongest in recent millennium.[1]
August 25, 1635 %u2014 A hurricane that is reported to have tracked parallel to the East Coast impacts New England and New York, although it remains unknown if any damage occurred.[2]
September 8, 1667 %u2014 A 'severe storm' is reported in Manhattan and is reported to be a continuation of a powerful hurricane which affected the Mid-Atlantic.[2]
October 29, 1693 %u2014 The Great Storm of 1693 causes severe damage on Long Island, and is reported to create the Fire Island Cut as a result of the coast-changing storm surge and waves.[2][3]
September 23, 1785 %u2014 Several large ships crash into Governors Island as a result of powerful waves which are reported to have been generated by a tropical cyclone.[3]
August 19, 1788 %u2014 A hurricane strikes New York City or Long Island and is reported to have left the west side of the Battery "laid in ruins" after severe flooding occurs.[3]

1800%u201399
Estimated track of the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane

October 9, 1804 %u2014 Heavy snow falls in Eastern New York peaking at 30 inches (75 cm) as a hurricane tracks northward along the East Coast and becomes extratropical, as cold air fed into the system.[4]
September 5, 1815 %u2014 A hurricane tracks over North Carolina and parallels the East Coast before producing a heavy rainstorm in New York.[5]
September 24, 1815 %u2014 Several hundred trees fall and the majority of the fruit was stripped off apple trees just prior to harvesting time after a hurricane makes landfall on Long Island.[6]
September 16, 1816 %u2014 A possible hurricane strikes New York City, but damage remains unknown.[2]
August 9, 1817 %u2014 A tropical storm produces heavy rainfall in New York City and Long Island.[2]
September 3, 1821 %u2014 The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane results in severe damage on Long Island and is accompanied by storm surge of 13 feet (4 m). High wind causes a ship to crash on Long Island killing 17 people.[7]
June 4, 1825 %u2014 A hurricane moves off the East Coast and tracks south of New York causing several ship wrecks, and killing seven people.[3]
August 27, 1827 %u2014 High tides are reported in New York City which are caused by a hurricane offshore.[8]
August 1, 1830 %u2013 A hurricane passes to the east of New York and produces gale-force winds to New York City and Long Island.[9]
October 4, 1841 %u2014 Gale%u2013force winds affect New York City as a hurricane tracks north along the East Coast of the United States. Damage is estimated at $2 million (1841 USD, $41 million 2007 USD).[10]

October 13, 1846 %u2014 The Great Havana Hurricane of 1846 tracks inland, causing some damage to New York City.[3]
October 6, 1849 %u2014 Severe structural damage occurs in New York City and Long Island with the passage of a hurricane to the east.[3]
July 19, 1850 %u2014 A hurricane destroys a Coney Island bath house and causes heavy rain, although damage is unknown.[3] This storm destroyed the ship Elizabeth off Fire Island and drowned American transcendentalist Margaret Fuller.
August 24, 1850 %u2014 A storm that is reported to be a hurricane affects New York and New England although there is no known damage.[2]
September 9, 1854 %u2014 A hurricane brushes the East Coast from Florida to New England causing rain on Long Island.[3]
September 16, 1858 %u2014 Low barometric pressure of 28.87 inches mercury at Sag Harbor is reported, and is thought to be associated with a tropical cyclone which causes no known damage.[3]
September 6, 1869 %u2014 A category 3 hurricane makes landfall in Rhode Island and brushes Long Island, which is affected by rain, although minimal damage resulted from the storm.[3]
October 28, 1872 %u2014 A tropical storm passes over New York City and Long Island.[11]
October 1, 1874 %u2014 New York City and the Hudson Valley receives rainfall after a minimal tropical storm tracked over Eastern New York.[11]
September 19, 1876 %u2014 The remnants of the San Felipe hurricane track over western New York State, although damage is unknown.[11]
October 24, 1878 %u2014 The state is affected by tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain with the passage of a hurricane, which made landfall in Virginia.[11][12]
August 22, 1888 %u2014 A tropical storm tracks over New York City before tracking north along the East Coast of the United States.[11]
August 24, 1893 %u2014 Hog Island is washed away by strong storm surge associated with a tropical storm of unknown strength.[3] According to HURDAT, this was a Category 1 hurricane that struck the western end of the Rockaway Peninsula, passing through Brooklyn as a weakening hurricane. Manhattan Island saw gale force winds to 56 mph.
October 10, 1894 10 People were killed and 15 injured at 74 Monroe Street in Manhattan when winds blew a building under construction onto a tenement crushing it. Extensive damage in the NYC and Long Island to telegraph lines, trees and boats docked on shore. Storm formed over Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 weakened over land in the Southeast and re strengthened to a Category 1 over the Chesapeake Bay before striking Long Island.[13][14]

1900%u201349
Storm surge from the 1938 New England hurricane

September 17, 1903 %u2014 The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane produces wind gusts in excess of 65 mph (105 km/h) and 3 inches (75 mm) of rain in Central Park.[15]
August 15, 1904 %u2014 A Category 2 hurricane skirts the East Coast of the United States producing gale-force winds and heavy rain in Eastern New York and Long Island.[16]
August 2, 1908 %u2014 A hurricane develops near North Carolina and moves northward along the coast, brushing Long Island.[17]
July 21, 1916 %u2014 Strong winds are reported on Long Island as a category 3 hurricane passes to the east.[3]
August 25, 1933 %u2014 The 1933 Chesapeake Potomac Hurricane produces up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rain in Southeast New York State; other damage is unknown.[18]
September 8, 1934 %u2014 A strong tropical storm makes landfall on Long Island.[19]
September 20, 1936 %u2014 Strong waves and storm surge associated with a powerful hurricane floods much of Long Beach Island and causes severe beach erosion along the coast.[20]
September 21, 1938 %u2014 The New England Hurricane of 1938 (Also Called "The Long Island Express") makes landfall on Suffolk County (Long Island) as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.[21] Wind gusts of 125 mph (200 km/h) and storm surge of 18 feet (5 m) washes across part of the island.[22] In New York 60 deaths and hundreds of injuries were attributed to the storm.[23] In addition, 2,600 boats and 8,900 houses are destroyed.[24] Throughout New England the hurricane killed over 682 people,[25] damaged or destroyed over 57,000 homes, and caused property losses estimated at $4.7 billion (2005 US dollars).[26]
September 14, 1944 %u2014 The 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane makes landfall on Long Island as a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale at a high forward speed of 40 mph (64 km/h). Wind gusts of well over 100 mph (160 km/h) breaks previous wind records in New York City, while a minimum pressure reading of 28.47 inches is recorded on Long Island. 117 homes are completely destroyed, while 2,427 are severely damaged and almost 1000 businesses are destroyed or damaged. In all, six people are killed, and one person is injured.[27]
September 18, 1945 %u2014 A weak tropical depression crosses into Southeastern New York.[11]
August 29, 1949 %u2014 A tropical storm tracks into Central New York causing no known damage.[11]

1950%u201374
Rainfall from Hurricane Agnes (1972)

1954 %u2014 Hurricane Hazel - wind gust of 113 mph at Battery Park, highest ever recorded in New York City.
August 31, 1954 %u2014 Hurricane Carol makes landfall on Long Island and produces wind gusts of 120 miles per hour (190 km/h) on Montauk Point.[3] On eastern Long Island near where Carol made landfall, a pressure of 960 mbar is recorded.[28] Winds on the island gust to 120 mph (195 km/h). The hurricane's storm surge covers the Montauk Highway in Montauk, effectively isolating eastern Long Island for a period of time. Due to the compact nature of the storm, most of Long Island is largely unaffected by the hurricane.[28] Specific damage totals for New York are unknown, although the storm in its entirety causes $460 million (1954 USD) in damage.[28]
September 10, 1954 %u2014 Hurricane Edna tracks to the east of Long Island producing 9 inches (230 mm) of rain.[3] Prior to the storm, New York City orders an emergency standby for the majority of its hospitals, and subways.[29]
August 13, 1955 %u2014 Hurricane Connie produces 13.24 inches (370 mm) of rain in Southeast New York, although damage is unknown.[30]
September 28, 1956 %u2014 Hurricane Flossy tracks to the south of Long Island, brushing it with light rainfall.[31]
October 1, 1959 %u2014 The remnants of Hurricane Gracie track into Central New York and drops up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rain.[32]
September 11, 1960 %u2014 Hurricane Donna makes landfall on Long Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Sustained winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) on eastern Long Island and 70 mph (110 km/h) winds on western Long Island are reported, and tides are 6 feet (2 m) above normal along most of the coast. Strong waves also cause beach erosion and several homes along the shore to be destroyed. Due to well-executed warnings, damages are extremely low, and it is reported that no deaths result from the storm.[33]
September 21, 1961 %u2014 Hurricane Esther causes $3 million (1961 USD, $20 million 2007 USD) in damage in Suffolk County as it tracks to the east of Long Island. Coastal areas of Long Island were flooded, as well as storm surge and wind gusts of 108 mph (173 km/h), which causes 260,000 homes to be left without power.[34]
October 8, 1962 %u2014 Hurricane Daisy tracks east of New England, producing light rainfall in extreme eastern portions of Upstate New York.[35]
September 23, 1964 %u2014 Beach erosion and moderate wind gusts are reported on Long Island as Hurricane Gladys tracks a couple hundred miles south of New York.[36]
October 19, 1964 %u2014 Light rainfall is reported as Hurricane Isbell tracks off the coast.[37]
September 10, 1969 %u2014 Rainfall up to 3 inches (75 mm) is reported on Long Island and in portions of Southeastern New York associated with Hurricane Gerda.[38]
August 28, 1971 %u2014 Tropical Storm Doria produces up to 8 inches (200 mm) of rain in New York City and Upstate New York causing moderate to severe flooding and floods subways in New York City.[39][40]
June 22, 1972 %u2014 Hurricane Agnes makes landfall near New York City and produces up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain in Southeastern New York State and much of Western New York, with locally higher amounts. Storm tides of 3.1 feet (1 m) and wind gusts of 55 miles per hour (89 km/h) occur in New York City, and severe river flooding causes six deaths.[41]
September 4, 1972 %u2014 Tropical Storm Carrie produces light rainfall on the eastern end of Long Island.[42]



note..not one of these dates means anything, ALL were before the climate change, and we could go even further back in time..does not matter one iota..if the climate IS changing..the record we track is from now on..and dont forget modern humans capable of tracking weather..have been here how long?..10,000 years maybe..a mere blink of an eye in earths history
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
433. washingtonian115
2:33 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
If the current pattern continues then New Jersey and areas northward will be getting all the snow this winter.Damn can't win for nothing.I guess the winter of 09-10 was a once in a lifetime event.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16889
432. LargoFl
2:32 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
one has to remember, nothing stays the same, climate included, in earths history, it has gone from hot to cold many many times, we humans live so short a time span in comparison so our memories of climate are short..are we going to get hotter OR are we going to get colder as the years go by..That..is the million dollar question..i seriously doubt anyone alive today even babies born Today..will see which way the earth is going to go..but..sometime,someday..those alive in that time..Will see it
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
431. atris
2:29 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


these events have happened in history before..this is not the first time NY has flooded, seen severe weather or snow from a extratropical/tropical systems-the rest of the years are in the link for viewing from wikipedia

Before 1800

between 1278 and 1438 — A major hurricane struck the modern-day New York/New Jersey area, probably the strongest in recent millennium.[1]
August 25, 1635 — A hurricane that is reported to have tracked parallel to the East Coast impacts New England and New York, although it remains unknown if any damage occurred.[2]
September 8, 1667 — A 'severe storm' is reported in Manhattan and is reported to be a continuation of a powerful hurricane which affected the Mid-Atlantic.[2]
October 29, 1693 — The Great Storm of 1693 causes severe damage on Long Island, and is reported to create the Fire Island Cut as a result of the coast-changing storm surge and waves.[2][3]
September 23, 1785 — Several large ships crash into Governors Island as a result of powerful waves which are reported to have been generated by a tropical cyclone.[3]
August 19, 1788 — A hurricane strikes New York City or Long Island and is reported to have left the west side of the Battery "laid in ruins" after severe flooding occurs.[3]

1800–99
Estimated track of the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane

October 9, 1804 — Heavy snow falls in Eastern New York peaking at 30 inches (75 cm) as a hurricane tracks northward along the East Coast and becomes extratropical, as cold air fed into the system.[4]
September 5, 1815 — A hurricane tracks over North Carolina and parallels the East Coast before producing a heavy rainstorm in New York.[5]
September 24, 1815 — Several hundred trees fall and the majority of the fruit was stripped off apple trees just prior to harvesting time after a hurricane makes landfall on Long Island.[6]
September 16, 1816 — A possible hurricane strikes New York City, but damage remains unknown.[2]
August 9, 1817 — A tropical storm produces heavy rainfall in New York City and Long Island.[2]
September 3, 1821 — The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane results in severe damage on Long Island and is accompanied by storm surge of 13 feet (4 m). High wind causes a ship to crash on Long Island killing 17 people.[7]
June 4, 1825 — A hurricane moves off the East Coast and tracks south of New York causing several ship wrecks, and killing seven people.[3]
August 27, 1827 — High tides are reported in New York City which are caused by a hurricane offshore.[8]
August 1, 1830 – A hurricane passes to the east of New York and produces gale-force winds to New York City and Long Island.[9]
October 4, 1841 — Gale–force winds affect New York City as a hurricane tracks north along the East Coast of the United States. Damage is estimated at $2 million (1841 USD, $41 million 2007 USD).[10]

October 13, 1846 — The Great Havana Hurricane of 1846 tracks inland, causing some damage to New York City.[3]
October 6, 1849 — Severe structural damage occurs in New York City and Long Island with the passage of a hurricane to the east.[3]
July 19, 1850 — A hurricane destroys a Coney Island bath house and causes heavy rain, although damage is unknown.[3] This storm destroyed the ship Elizabeth off Fire Island and drowned American transcendentalist Margaret Fuller.
August 24, 1850 — A storm that is reported to be a hurricane affects New York and New England although there is no known damage.[2]
September 9, 1854 — A hurricane brushes the East Coast from Florida to New England causing rain on Long Island.[3]
September 16, 1858 — Low barometric pressure of 28.87 inches mercury at Sag Harbor is reported, and is thought to be associated with a tropical cyclone which causes no known damage.[3]
September 6, 1869 — A category 3 hurricane makes landfall in Rhode Island and brushes Long Island, which is affected by rain, although minimal damage resulted from the storm.[3]
October 28, 1872 — A tropical storm passes over New York City and Long Island.[11]
October 1, 1874 — New York City and the Hudson Valley receives rainfall after a minimal tropical storm tracked over Eastern New York.[11]
September 19, 1876 — The remnants of the San Felipe hurricane track over western New York State, although damage is unknown.[11]
October 24, 1878 — The state is affected by tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain with the passage of a hurricane, which made landfall in Virginia.[11][12]
August 22, 1888 — A tropical storm tracks over New York City before tracking north along the East Coast of the United States.[11]
August 24, 1893 — Hog Island is washed away by strong storm surge associated with a tropical storm of unknown strength.[3] According to HURDAT, this was a Category 1 hurricane that struck the western end of the Rockaway Peninsula, passing through Brooklyn as a weakening hurricane. Manhattan Island saw gale force winds to 56 mph.
October 10, 1894 10 People were killed and 15 injured at 74 Monroe Street in Manhattan when winds blew a building under construction onto a tenement crushing it. Extensive damage in the NYC and Long Island to telegraph lines, trees and boats docked on shore. Storm formed over Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 weakened over land in the Southeast and re strengthened to a Category 1 over the Chesapeake Bay before striking Long Island.[13][14]

1900–49
Storm surge from the 1938 New England hurricane

September 17, 1903 — The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane produces wind gusts in excess of 65 mph (105 km/h) and 3 inches (75 mm) of rain in Central Park.[15]
August 15, 1904 — A Category 2 hurricane skirts the East Coast of the United States producing gale-force winds and heavy rain in Eastern New York and Long Island.[16]
August 2, 1908 — A hurricane develops near North Carolina and moves northward along the coast, brushing Long Island.[17]
July 21, 1916 — Strong winds are reported on Long Island as a category 3 hurricane passes to the east.[3]
August 25, 1933 — The 1933 Chesapeake Potomac Hurricane produces up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rain in Southeast New York State; other damage is unknown.[18]
September 8, 1934 — A strong tropical storm makes landfall on Long Island.[19]
September 20, 1936 — Strong waves and storm surge associated with a powerful hurricane floods much of Long Beach Island and causes severe beach erosion along the coast.[20]
September 21, 1938 — The New England Hurricane of 1938 (Also Called "The Long Island Express") makes landfall on Suffolk County (Long Island) as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.[21] Wind gusts of 125 mph (200 km/h) and storm surge of 18 feet (5 m) washes across part of the island.[22] In New York 60 deaths and hundreds of injuries were attributed to the storm.[23] In addition, 2,600 boats and 8,900 houses are destroyed.[24] Throughout New England the hurricane killed over 682 people,[25] damaged or destroyed over 57,000 homes, and caused property losses estimated at $4.7 billion (2005 US dollars).[26]
September 14, 1944 — The 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane makes landfall on Long Island as a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale at a high forward speed of 40 mph (64 km/h). Wind gusts of well over 100 mph (160 km/h) breaks previous wind records in New York City, while a minimum pressure reading of 28.47 inches is recorded on Long Island. 117 homes are completely destroyed, while 2,427 are severely damaged and almost 1000 businesses are destroyed or damaged. In all, six people are killed, and one person is injured.[27]
September 18, 1945 — A weak tropical depression crosses into Southeastern New York.[11]
August 29, 1949 — A tropical storm tracks into Central New York causing no known damage.[11]

1950–74
Rainfall from Hurricane Agnes (1972)

1954 — Hurricane Hazel - wind gust of 113 mph at Battery Park, highest ever recorded in New York City.
August 31, 1954 — Hurricane Carol makes landfall on Long Island and produces wind gusts of 120 miles per hour (190 km/h) on Montauk Point.[3] On eastern Long Island near where Carol made landfall, a pressure of 960 mbar is recorded.[28] Winds on the island gust to 120 mph (195 km/h). The hurricane's storm surge covers the Montauk Highway in Montauk, effectively isolating eastern Long Island for a period of time. Due to the compact nature of the storm, most of Long Island is largely unaffected by the hurricane.[28] Specific damage totals for New York are unknown, although the storm in its entirety causes $460 million (1954 USD) in damage.[28]
September 10, 1954 — Hurricane Edna tracks to the east of Long Island producing 9 inches (230 mm) of rain.[3] Prior to the storm, New York City orders an emergency standby for the majority of its hospitals, and subways.[29]
August 13, 1955 — Hurricane Connie produces 13.24 inches (370 mm) of rain in Southeast New York, although damage is unknown.[30]
September 28, 1956 — Hurricane Flossy tracks to the south of Long Island, brushing it with light rainfall.[31]
October 1, 1959 — The remnants of Hurricane Gracie track into Central New York and drops up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rain.[32]
September 11, 1960 — Hurricane Donna makes landfall on Long Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Sustained winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) on eastern Long Island and 70 mph (110 km/h) winds on western Long Island are reported, and tides are 6 feet (2 m) above normal along most of the coast. Strong waves also cause beach erosion and several homes along the shore to be destroyed. Due to well-executed warnings, damages are extremely low, and it is reported that no deaths result from the storm.[33]
September 21, 1961 — Hurricane Esther causes $3 million (1961 USD, $20 million 2007 USD) in damage in Suffolk County as it tracks to the east of Long Island. Coastal areas of Long Island were flooded, as well as storm surge and wind gusts of 108 mph (173 km/h), which causes 260,000 homes to be left without power.[34]
October 8, 1962 — Hurricane Daisy tracks east of New England, producing light rainfall in extreme eastern portions of Upstate New York.[35]
September 23, 1964 — Beach erosion and moderate wind gusts are reported on Long Island as Hurricane Gladys tracks a couple hundred miles south of New York.[36]
October 19, 1964 — Light rainfall is reported as Hurricane Isbell tracks off the coast.[37]
September 10, 1969 — Rainfall up to 3 inches (75 mm) is reported on Long Island and in portions of Southeastern New York associated with Hurricane Gerda.[38]
August 28, 1971 — Tropical Storm Doria produces up to 8 inches (200 mm) of rain in New York City and Upstate New York causing moderate to severe flooding and floods subways in New York City.[39][40]
June 22, 1972 — Hurricane Agnes makes landfall near New York City and produces up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain in Southeastern New York State and much of Western New York, with locally higher amounts. Storm tides of 3.1 feet (1 m) and wind gusts of 55 miles per hour (89 km/h) occur in New York City, and severe river flooding causes six deaths.[41]
September 4, 1972 — Tropical Storm Carrie produces light rainfall on the eastern end of Long Island.[42]





Thanks!! that is really interesting information
Member Since: September 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
430. LargoFl
2:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
new Nam at 42 hours, storming in the midwest looks like....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
429. ncstorm
2:26 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
WELL my guess is..ask any new yorker if the climate has changed........


these events have happened in history before..this is not the first time NY has flooded, seen severe weather or snow from a extratropical/tropical systems-the rest of the years are in the link for viewing from wikipedia

Before 1800

between 1278 and 1438 — A major hurricane struck the modern-day New York/New Jersey area, probably the strongest in recent millennium.[1]
August 25, 1635 — A hurricane that is reported to have tracked parallel to the East Coast impacts New England and New York, although it remains unknown if any damage occurred.[2]
September 8, 1667 — A 'severe storm' is reported in Manhattan and is reported to be a continuation of a powerful hurricane which affected the Mid-Atlantic.[2]
October 29, 1693 — The Great Storm of 1693 causes severe damage on Long Island, and is reported to create the Fire Island Cut as a result of the coast-changing storm surge and waves.[2][3]
September 23, 1785 — Several large ships crash into Governors Island as a result of powerful waves which are reported to have been generated by a tropical cyclone.[3]
August 19, 1788 — A hurricane strikes New York City or Long Island and is reported to have left the west side of the Battery "laid in ruins" after severe flooding occurs.[3]

1800–99
Estimated track of the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane

October 9, 1804 — Heavy snow falls in Eastern New York peaking at 30 inches (75 cm) as a hurricane tracks northward along the East Coast and becomes extratropical, as cold air fed into the system.[4]
September 5, 1815 — A hurricane tracks over North Carolina and parallels the East Coast before producing a heavy rainstorm in New York.[5]
September 24, 1815 — Several hundred trees fall and the majority of the fruit was stripped off apple trees just prior to harvesting time after a hurricane makes landfall on Long Island.[6]
September 16, 1816 — A possible hurricane strikes New York City, but damage remains unknown.[2]
August 9, 1817 — A tropical storm produces heavy rainfall in New York City and Long Island.[2]
September 3, 1821 — The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane results in severe damage on Long Island and is accompanied by storm surge of 13 feet (4 m). High wind causes a ship to crash on Long Island killing 17 people.[7]
June 4, 1825 — A hurricane moves off the East Coast and tracks south of New York causing several ship wrecks, and killing seven people.[3]
August 27, 1827 — High tides are reported in New York City which are caused by a hurricane offshore.[8]
August 1, 1830 – A hurricane passes to the east of New York and produces gale-force winds to New York City and Long Island.[9]
October 4, 1841 — Gale–force winds affect New York City as a hurricane tracks north along the East Coast of the United States. Damage is estimated at $2 million (1841 USD, $41 million 2007 USD).[10]

October 13, 1846 — The Great Havana Hurricane of 1846 tracks inland, causing some damage to New York City.[3]
October 6, 1849 — Severe structural damage occurs in New York City and Long Island with the passage of a hurricane to the east.[3]
July 19, 1850 — A hurricane destroys a Coney Island bath house and causes heavy rain, although damage is unknown.[3] This storm destroyed the ship Elizabeth off Fire Island and drowned American transcendentalist Margaret Fuller.
August 24, 1850 — A storm that is reported to be a hurricane affects New York and New England although there is no known damage.[2]
September 9, 1854 — A hurricane brushes the East Coast from Florida to New England causing rain on Long Island.[3]
September 16, 1858 — Low barometric pressure of 28.87 inches mercury at Sag Harbor is reported, and is thought to be associated with a tropical cyclone which causes no known damage.[3]
September 6, 1869 — A category 3 hurricane makes landfall in Rhode Island and brushes Long Island, which is affected by rain, although minimal damage resulted from the storm.[3]
October 28, 1872 — A tropical storm passes over New York City and Long Island.[11]
October 1, 1874 — New York City and the Hudson Valley receives rainfall after a minimal tropical storm tracked over Eastern New York.[11]
September 19, 1876 — The remnants of the San Felipe hurricane track over western New York State, although damage is unknown.[11]
October 24, 1878 — The state is affected by tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain with the passage of a hurricane, which made landfall in Virginia.[11][12]
August 22, 1888 — A tropical storm tracks over New York City before tracking north along the East Coast of the United States.[11]
August 24, 1893 — Hog Island is washed away by strong storm surge associated with a tropical storm of unknown strength.[3] According to HURDAT, this was a Category 1 hurricane that struck the western end of the Rockaway Peninsula, passing through Brooklyn as a weakening hurricane. Manhattan Island saw gale force winds to 56 mph.
October 10, 1894 10 People were killed and 15 injured at 74 Monroe Street in Manhattan when winds blew a building under construction onto a tenement crushing it. Extensive damage in the NYC and Long Island to telegraph lines, trees and boats docked on shore. Storm formed over Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 weakened over land in the Southeast and re strengthened to a Category 1 over the Chesapeake Bay before striking Long Island.[13][14]

1900–49
Storm surge from the 1938 New England hurricane

September 17, 1903 — The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane produces wind gusts in excess of 65 mph (105 km/h) and 3 inches (75 mm) of rain in Central Park.[15]
August 15, 1904 — A Category 2 hurricane skirts the East Coast of the United States producing gale-force winds and heavy rain in Eastern New York and Long Island.[16]
August 2, 1908 — A hurricane develops near North Carolina and moves northward along the coast, brushing Long Island.[17]
July 21, 1916 — Strong winds are reported on Long Island as a category 3 hurricane passes to the east.[3]
August 25, 1933 — The 1933 Chesapeake Potomac Hurricane produces up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rain in Southeast New York State; other damage is unknown.[18]
September 8, 1934 — A strong tropical storm makes landfall on Long Island.[19]
September 20, 1936 — Strong waves and storm surge associated with a powerful hurricane floods much of Long Beach Island and causes severe beach erosion along the coast.[20]
September 21, 1938 — The New England Hurricane of 1938 (Also Called "The Long Island Express") makes landfall on Suffolk County (Long Island) as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.[21] Wind gusts of 125 mph (200 km/h) and storm surge of 18 feet (5 m) washes across part of the island.[22] In New York 60 deaths and hundreds of injuries were attributed to the storm.[23] In addition, 2,600 boats and 8,900 houses are destroyed.[24] Throughout New England the hurricane killed over 682 people,[25] damaged or destroyed over 57,000 homes, and caused property losses estimated at $4.7 billion (2005 US dollars).[26]
September 14, 1944 — The 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane makes landfall on Long Island as a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale at a high forward speed of 40 mph (64 km/h). Wind gusts of well over 100 mph (160 km/h) breaks previous wind records in New York City, while a minimum pressure reading of 28.47 inches is recorded on Long Island. 117 homes are completely destroyed, while 2,427 are severely damaged and almost 1000 businesses are destroyed or damaged. In all, six people are killed, and one person is injured.[27]
September 18, 1945 — A weak tropical depression crosses into Southeastern New York.[11]
August 29, 1949 — A tropical storm tracks into Central New York causing no known damage.[11]

1950–74
Rainfall from Hurricane Agnes (1972)

1954 — Hurricane Hazel - wind gust of 113 mph at Battery Park, highest ever recorded in New York City.
August 31, 1954 — Hurricane Carol makes landfall on Long Island and produces wind gusts of 120 miles per hour (190 km/h) on Montauk Point.[3] On eastern Long Island near where Carol made landfall, a pressure of 960 mbar is recorded.[28] Winds on the island gust to 120 mph (195 km/h). The hurricane's storm surge covers the Montauk Highway in Montauk, effectively isolating eastern Long Island for a period of time. Due to the compact nature of the storm, most of Long Island is largely unaffected by the hurricane.[28] Specific damage totals for New York are unknown, although the storm in its entirety causes $460 million (1954 USD) in damage.[28]
September 10, 1954 — Hurricane Edna tracks to the east of Long Island producing 9 inches (230 mm) of rain.[3] Prior to the storm, New York City orders an emergency standby for the majority of its hospitals, and subways.[29]
August 13, 1955 — Hurricane Connie produces 13.24 inches (370 mm) of rain in Southeast New York, although damage is unknown.[30]
September 28, 1956 — Hurricane Flossy tracks to the south of Long Island, brushing it with light rainfall.[31]
October 1, 1959 — The remnants of Hurricane Gracie track into Central New York and drops up to 6 inches (150 mm) of rain.[32]
September 11, 1960 — Hurricane Donna makes landfall on Long Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Sustained winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) on eastern Long Island and 70 mph (110 km/h) winds on western Long Island are reported, and tides are 6 feet (2 m) above normal along most of the coast. Strong waves also cause beach erosion and several homes along the shore to be destroyed. Due to well-executed warnings, damages are extremely low, and it is reported that no deaths result from the storm.[33]
September 21, 1961 — Hurricane Esther causes $3 million (1961 USD, $20 million 2007 USD) in damage in Suffolk County as it tracks to the east of Long Island. Coastal areas of Long Island were flooded, as well as storm surge and wind gusts of 108 mph (173 km/h), which causes 260,000 homes to be left without power.[34]
October 8, 1962 — Hurricane Daisy tracks east of New England, producing light rainfall in extreme eastern portions of Upstate New York.[35]
September 23, 1964 — Beach erosion and moderate wind gusts are reported on Long Island as Hurricane Gladys tracks a couple hundred miles south of New York.[36]
October 19, 1964 — Light rainfall is reported as Hurricane Isbell tracks off the coast.[37]
September 10, 1969 — Rainfall up to 3 inches (75 mm) is reported on Long Island and in portions of Southeastern New York associated with Hurricane Gerda.[38]
August 28, 1971 — Tropical Storm Doria produces up to 8 inches (200 mm) of rain in New York City and Upstate New York causing moderate to severe flooding and floods subways in New York City.[39][40]
June 22, 1972 — Hurricane Agnes makes landfall near New York City and produces up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain in Southeastern New York State and much of Western New York, with locally higher amounts. Storm tides of 3.1 feet (1 m) and wind gusts of 55 miles per hour (89 km/h) occur in New York City, and severe river flooding causes six deaths.[41]
September 4, 1972 — Tropical Storm Carrie produces light rainfall on the eastern end of Long Island.[42]



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15185
428. LargoFl
2:23 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
the big storm comes from the west..NAEFS at 294 hours....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
427. LargoFl
2:21 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
OMG..yet another bad winter storm by NY and NJ etc...GFS at 300 hours..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
426. atris
2:20 PM GMT on November 09, 2012


Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Except that's not the point. Deniers would even then claim it wasn't manmade in any way. Doesn't matter what happens the next however many years, they can still claim it's completely natural. Some will never except people have anything to do with it...though i still wonder why they'd think it's ok to pollute the world otherwise, even if GW itself was natural LOL


Oh , I seem to recall climate is always changing . Science has proved areas in the world were both hotter and cooler in different periods of history .

Every time you turn on electric, including using a computer you are polluting the world .Every time you drive or travel by plane, you are adding to pollution . So should we all go back a few centuries to a hunter gatherer lifestyle ? No thanks. I don't have answers but I don't see many coming up with solutions either.
Member Since: September 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
425. LargoFl
2:18 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting floridaT:
woke to the thermometer reading 43 here in sw Florida. damm gotta wear long pants. mabee time to join the cayman boys or even pottery and move further south.
yes sure was chilly around here this morning alright, dont think by my house it dipped below 50, im surrounded by water so the temps moderated some but cities north of me had frost etc..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197
424. LargoFl
2:15 PM GMT on November 09, 2012
Quoting beell:
It's forbidden to use individual weather events to confirm climate change...but not to deny it...

It's forbidden to use individual weather events to deny climate change...but not to confirm it...

WELL my guess is..ask any new yorker if the climate has changed........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38197

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.