First Hurricane Sandy, now Winter Storm Athena for the Eastern U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on November 07, 2012

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Winter Storm Warnings are up for Southwest New Jersey, Northern Delaware, and Southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, PA, where Winter Storm Athena is expected to drop 3 - 5" of snow today through Thursday morning. Slushy accumulations of up to 1" are likely in Baltimore, and non-accumulating snow will fall as far south as Washington, DC. Athena, the season's first Nor'easter and first winter storm to get a name under The Weather Channel's new naming system, is spreading rain and high winds into Southern New Jersey and Eastern Long Island, NY this morning. Winds at buoy 44025, about 40 miles offshore from the coast of Central New Jersey, reached 40 mph, gusting to 49 mph, with a significant wave height of 14', at noon EST. Winds at Nantucket, MA have gusted as high as 54 mph this morning. Athena is building a storm surge that has already reached 2.2' at Atlantic City and 1.8' at New York City as of noon EST. A storm surge of 2 - 3.5' is likely along the section of coast most heavily damaged by Sandy's storm surge, and battering waves up to 20' high will cause moderate beach erosion along much of the New Jersey and New York shoreline. The storm surge will cause minor to moderate flooding during this afternoon's high tide cycle near 1 pm EST, and again at the next high tide, near 1 am EST Thursday morning. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. Wind gusts from Athena will likely reach 50 mph along the coasts of New Jersey and Southern Long Island, NY, and could hit 60 mph on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. I expect that Athena's winds, rains, and wet, heavy snows will cause up to 50,000 new power outages today. As of early Wednesday morning, 676,000 customers were still without power in the wake of Hurricane Sandy (down from a peak of 8.5 million customers.)


Figure 1. Winter Storm Athena as seen at 9:01 am EST November 7, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ, for Winter Storm Athena, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA's Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.4', occurring Wednesday evening. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.2' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

The decision to name Athena
The Weather Channel announced in October that they would begin naming winter storms this year, in an effort to aid in raising awareness and reduce the risks the public faces. One of the main criteria for naming a storm is its impact on populated areas; the meteorology of the storm may not get it named, if the storm doesn't affect a populated area. If Hurricane Sandy had not devastated the region of coast being affected by today's Winter Storm Athena, it may not have gotten a name. With so many people still under recovery efforts even well inland, the combination of heavy, wet snow and wind prompted the decision to name Athena. The models have been trending towards more cold air getting pulled into this system, so it is possible Athena could drop heavier snows than currently advertised. The National Weather Service will not be referring to today's Nor'easter as "Athena". They put out this internal directive: "The NWS does not use named winter storms in our products. Please refrain from using the term Athena in any of our products."

Here are the peak wind gusts from Athena as of 11 am EST on Wednesday, November 7, 2012:



Jeff Masters

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Quoting belizeit:
the earth is swaying run earthquake help


??? !!!

Hope everyone is OK...



(The dots on the map above indicate a location where someone has reported to the USGS having felt the quake. The color represents the intensity of shaking felt and the size of the dot represents the size of the city in which the shaking was reported. It's notable that one of our Belize (?) posters also felt this quake, despite it occurring on the far side of the isthmus from Belize).
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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:

Really hoping it doesn't go out when the winds pick up. At least we have the wood stove... but I am charging all of my electronics just in case.

Hey, in case it goes out again, at least we got to enjoy it for a few days..? ;)


Just spoke to my brother in Lloyd Harbor. Lights have been going on and off. The wind is getting a little stronger.
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NYC live.
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Quoting Grothar:


Newtawrsh-orkanen New Year's Storm (Orkanen actually means hurricane.
Thanks for that, Grothar. :-)
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Quoting Progster:


My favourite was "Ubehagelig vinterstorm" :)


LOL. That means "Uncomfortable Winter Storm."
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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:

Really hoping it doesn't go out when the winds pick up. At least we have the wood stove... but I am charging all of my electronics just in case.

Hey, in case it goes out again, at least we got to enjoy it for a few days..? ;)
good luck up there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
000
WEPA42 PHEB 071641
TIBPAC

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1641Z 07 NOV 2012

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1636Z 07 NOV 2012
COORDINATES - 14.0 NORTH 92.2 WEST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - OFF THE COAST OF CHIAPAS MEXICO
MAGNITUDE - 7.5

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL
TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES
IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.



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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
000
WEHW42 PHEB 071643
TIBHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-071843 -

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
643 AM HST WED NOV 07 2012

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0636 AM HST 07 NOV 2012
COORDINATES - 14.0 NORTH 92.2 WEST
LOCATION - OFF THE COAST OF CHIAPAS MEXICO
MAGNITUDE - 7.5 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

$$



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Quoting AegirsGal:
I am over here tying my tongue into knots trying to pronounce that...My Nordic genes are giving me no help...


Newtawrsh-orkanen New Year's Storm (Orkanen actually means hurricane.
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Quoting longislander102:
Snow mixed in with the rain here in Babylon, New York. (on the south shore of Long Island). Power flickering too.

Really hoping it doesn't go out when the winds pick up. At least we have the wood stove... but I am charging all of my electronics just in case.

Hey, in case it goes out again, at least we got to enjoy it for a few days..? ;)
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On the topic of TWC naming winter storms in highly populated areas,
Neapolitan wrote:
"It occurs to me that TV and radio station traffic reporters have for years used short names to describe certain popular freeway interchanges, names that are not officially sanctioned nor even used by various departments of transportation but which have nonetheless become part of the local nomenclature. (For example, anyone who's ever commuted in L.A. is aware of "The Stack". That's how all traffic reporters and news organizations and drivers refer to the interchange. It's instantly recognizable, and far more easy to communicate than "The U.S. 101/I-110/Arroyo Seco Parkway/Harbor Freeway/Hollywood Freeway/Santa Ana Freeway Four-Level Interchange".) And yet the world hasn't come to a screeching halt."

Comparing local traffic reports and nationwide weather forecasts... LOL. You should write for Jay Leno.
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M 7.5, offshore Guatemala

Date: Wednesday, November 7, 2012 16:35:49 UTC
Wednesday, November 7, 2012 10:35:49 AM at epicenter
Depth: 33.00 km (20.51 mi)
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Quoting belizeit:
the earth is swaying run earthquake help




Uuuh! 7.5!
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I was wondering..why isnt there convoys of fuel tankers headed towards the northeast? you would think the oil companies would see a bonanza in the making with HUGE lines of customers waiting and pleading for gasoline up there..why isnt it happening?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
the earth is swaying run earthquake help
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The thing is, no one is under orders to use the names TWC uses. If you want to refer to the current storm as "The November 7 Nor'easter" or "That Giant Swirly Mass of Clouds By New England" or "The Great Northeastern United States Atlantic Offshore Extratropical Cyclone of Early November 2012", go right ahead; you won't be dragged before a court of law to explain your impertinence. TWC has simply taken it upon themselves to name storms; as a non-governmental entity, they obviously have no authority whatsoever over whether anyone else must use the names they select.

But having said that, I think it's a great idea. I also think that coming winters will prove what a simple and elegant idea it is, and that, given enough time, the NWS will, indeed, adopt the practice.

It occurs to me that TV and radio station traffic reporters have for years used short names to describe certain popular freeway interchanges, names that are not officially sanctioned nor even used by various departments of transportation but which have nonetheless become part of the local nomenclature. (For example, anyone who's ever commuted in L.A. is aware of "The Stack". That's how all traffic reporters and news organizations and drivers refer to the interchange. It's instantly recognizable, and far more easy to communicate than "The U.S. 101/I-110/Arroyo Seco Parkway/Harbor Freeway/Hollywood Freeway/Santa Ana Freeway Four-Level Interchange".) And yet the world hasn't come to a screeching halt.

Kudos to TWC.


Barring another major november noreaster, it would be the "November 2012 North American Nor'easter"
If we DID have another big noreater it would be the "November 6-9, 2012 North American Nor'easter"
The problem with the name "Athena" I have is that nobody will remember the names anyway except for maybe 1 storm a year if TWC pushes that name hard enough and it gets to social media. Otherwise the names will be forgotten anyway as soon as the storm is gone, and places like Wikipedia and such will continue to give it the generic name they usually do.
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Glad to see the Stock Market is doing good. I blame it on Athena. Just sayin...

Updated: 11/07/2012 12:39 ET

DOW
12,913.98
-331.70

NASDAQ
2,934.53
-77.40

S&P
1,392.01
-36.38
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snow and ice filling in nicly now
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I like the idea of naming winter storms, "official" or not. I'd rather call a winter storm "Herbert" or "Legolas" rather than "That One Time That Three Feet Of Snow Got Dumped On My Car Overnight, Or Was It That Other Time That Was Like A Week Later? I Cannot Recall."
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The thing is, no one is under orders to use the names TWC uses. If you want to refer to the current storm as "The November 7 Nor'easter" or "That Giant Swirly Mass of Clouds By New England" or "The Great Northeastern United States Atlantic Offshore Extratropical Cyclone of Early November 2012", go right ahead; you won't be dragged before a court of law to explain your impertinence. TWC has simply taken it upon themselves to name storms; as a non-governmental entity, they obviously have no authority whatsoever over whether anyone else must use the names they select.

But having said that, I think it's a great idea. I also think that coming winters will prove what a simple and elegant idea it is, and that, given enough time, the NWS will, indeed, adopt the practice.

It occurs to me that TV and radio station traffic reporters have for years used short names to describe certain popular freeway interchanges, names that are not officially sanctioned nor even used by various departments of transportation but which have nonetheless become part of the local nomenclature. (For example, anyone who's ever commuted in L.A. is aware of "The Stack". That's how all traffic reporters and news organizations and drivers refer to the interchange. It's instantly recognizable, and far more easy to communicate than "The U.S. 101/I-110/Arroyo Seco Parkway/Harbor Freeway/Hollywood Freeway/Santa Ana Freeway Four-Level Interchange".) And yet the world hasn't come to a screeching halt.

Kudos to TWC.
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waters cooling big time now

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Quoting LargoFl:
exactly, we must remember TWC looks for ways to boost ratings and get more people to watch their show..people right now arent afraid of winter storms like they are for hurricanes..maybe adding a name to a vicious winter storm..people will start to listen more to the warnings i dunno


But that also means the more cynical of people are just not buying the Idea and just see it as a marketing ploy and may underestimate these storms . I will be checking the NWS regularly for their assessment
Member Since: September 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 56

Surf at the shore of Atlantic City right now. Link
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Link Sandy - press play to watch start to finish.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Beautiful, and no AC.
yeah feels great
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
Sustained winds have made it to gale force at this buoy not too far south of Long Island.

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Quoting LargoFl:
well we here have 2 days of sweatshirt weather then it warms up again ..


Beautiful, and no AC.
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Nor' Easter Warning

The Brick Township Office of Emergency Management is monitoring a Nor’ Easter that has the potential to strongly impact our town with high winds, storm surge and flooding. The Brick Township Office of Emergency Management has issued a Mandatory Evacuation for all residents that reside in the low lying waterfront areas of town that are prone to flooding and/or storm surge by Tuesday November 6, 2012 at 6:00 P.M.

These areas include but are not limited to;
• Midstreams neighborhood East of Jordan Rd.
• Area of Island Dr. in Cedarcroft
• North & South Dr. (Metedeconk)
• Princeton Ave. East of Beaver Dam Rd.
• Cedarbridge Manor East of Lions Lane
• Vanada Woods
• Eagle Pass
• Sandy Point
• Tilton Rd
• Cranberry Cove
• Swan Point Park including Beaton and Gale Rd.
• Baywood East of Pilot Dr. and Mandolay Dr.
• Cherry Quay South of Tiller Lane
• Sailors Quay off of Pleasant Dr., North Pier and South Sailors Quay
• Waterfront Property in Mallard Point
• Seaview Dr. & Seaview Ave in Seaview Village
• Shore Acres
• Seawood Harbor
• Waterfront Property in Bay Harbor

Residents whose homes that do not fall into the Mandatory area that have been damaged and/or affected from Hurricane Sandy are strongly encouraged to evacuate.

Residents are encouraged to seek shelter with friends and/or family who are in a safe location.

For those residents that require transportation to a shelter, you can contact the call center at 732-262-1234.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
folks the people in new Jersey etc are getting hammered today and suffering even more than before with this new storm..any new reports of flooding and damage from up there?....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
JeffMasters wrote:
"One of the main criteria for naming a storm is its impact on populated areas; the meteorology of the storm may not get it named, if the storm doesn't affect a populated area."

Don't you mean "highly populated"? And this is the flaw with TWC's naming scheme. But then, where are the viewers? Certainly not on San Juan Island or in Victoria BC, Haida Gwaii or Nome. Other less populated areas in North America can and will see damage from meteorologically significant storms that will, apparently, not warrant a name from TWC. FWIW, This is more an observation than a complaint.

I will always take the local mets and NWS forecast over any other. Having a choice for weather info is important. Weather can affect life and death for residents scattered through rural areas as well as for city dwellers.

Same is true for politics or any other personal belief, choice is what is important.
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Here is a really good look at our Nor'easter "Athena" since sunrise on visible.

*Warning* Absolutely Massive File Size!
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Well i see obama won, climate must be better already lol.


Lol. At least he started to mention the problem again ...
Obama finally talks climate change. Now what will he do about it?
Washington Post. Posted by Brad Plumer on November 7, 2012 at 9:55 am
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Quoting AegirsGal:
I am over here tying my tongue into knots trying to pronounce that...My Nordic genes are giving me no help...
hahaha i had the same trouble LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
Quoting atris:


I would be more than happy for the NWS to Name winter storms, that then would filter down to private forecasters, but it just seems stupid that one commercial body is doing so when all other forecasts Private and Public are not .
exactly, we must remember TWC looks for ways to boost ratings and get more people to watch their show..people right now arent afraid of winter storms like they are for hurricanes..maybe adding a name to a vicious winter storm..people will start to listen more to the warnings i dunno
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
Quoting Grothar:


We always like to name our storms when I lived in Norway. In 1992 they had a storm called Nyttårsorkanen. We've had Gudrun and Hergen.
I am over here tying my tongue into knots trying to pronounce that...My Nordic genes are giving me no help...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
Quoting LargoFl:
yes, in tropical systems, the threshold is wind speed..over 45 mph its a tropical storm etc...for winter storms..I guess something else might apply..yes wind speed, but maybe sub freezing temps along with a foot of snow....something along those lines........although the NWS DOES have Blizzard warnings..but no names for a storm..


I would be more than happy for the NWS to Name winter storms, that then would filter down to private forecasters, but it just seems stupid that one commercial body is doing so when all other forecasts Private and Public are not .
Member Since: September 9, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
Quoting Progster:


My favourite was "Ubehagelig vinterstorm" :)
we could have fun with this LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
Quoting Grothar:


We always like to name our storms when I lived in Norway. In 1992 they had a storm called Nyttårsorkanen. We've had Gudrun and Hergen.


My favourite was "Ubehagelig vinterstorm" :)
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well we here have 2 days of sweatshirt weather then it warms up again ..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
Quoting Progster:


from wikipedia:

Inspired by the practice of the U.S. National Weather Service to assign names to hurricanes and typhoons, a student at the Free University of Berlin (FU), Karla Wege, suggested in 1954 that all high- and low-pressure systems affecting Europe should be given names in order to make tracking the systems simpler. Lows were given female names and highs male names.[3][4] This practice was soon adopted by the German media.

In 1998, the system changed to alternating male and female names for highs and lows each year. In November 2002, the Adopt-a-Vortex scheme was started, which allows members of the public to buy names that will then be assigned to storms during each year. The money raised by this is used by the meteorology department to maintain weather observations at the FU.[3]

The FU names became gradually known across Europe through the media. Even though these are not sanctioned by any official organizations, like the World Meteorological Organization, they are commonly used. However, a storm may still be named differently in different country. For instance, the Norwegian weather service also names independently notable storms that affect Norway.[5]


Although I'm not in favor of the practice unless its picked up by NWS, and some criteria are developed, I do like the "adopt a vortex" idea.


We always like to name our storms when I lived in Norway. In 1992 they had a storm called Nyttårsorkanen. We've had Gudrun and Hergen.
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Quoting tornadodude:
Love this

"235
NOUS71 KVUY 071402
ADMERH

ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN REGION
BOHEMIA NY 900 AM EST WED NOVEMBER 7 2012

TO: ALL ER WFOS

TWC HAS NAMED THE NOR`EASTER "ATHENA.." THE NWS DOES NOT USE NAME
WINTER STORMS IN OUR PRODUCTS. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM USING THE TERM
ATHENA IN ANY OF OUR PRODUCTS.

$$

RW"

link
ty for reposting this.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
Quoting atris:


The only threshold seems to be where is going to be affected ...
yes, in tropical systems, the threshold is wind speed..over 45 mph its a tropical storm etc...for winter storms..I guess something else might apply..yes wind speed, but maybe sub freezing temps along with a foot of snow....something along those lines........although the NWS DOES have Blizzard warnings..but no names for a storm..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36665
Love this

"235
NOUS71 KVUY 071402
ADMERH

ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN REGION
BOHEMIA NY 900 AM EST WED NOVEMBER 7 2012

TO: ALL ER WFOS

TWC HAS NAMED THE NOR`EASTER "ATHENA.." THE NWS DOES NOT USE NAME
WINTER STORMS IN OUR PRODUCTS. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM USING THE TERM
ATHENA IN ANY OF OUR PRODUCTS.

$$

RW"

link
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Thanks for the post on the Alltel storm. After all, it is trying to make the NE wireless.

Blessings on all the power crews up there, working to restore power in the continuing adverse conditions. Return safely.
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Well i see obama won, climate must be better already lol.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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