Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

Share this Blog
38
+

An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 475 - 425

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Quoting Neapolitan:
Answer:

Romney

Source: New York Times


They did go bankrupt.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think NBC did WI too early it gave it too Obama but on cnn it shows Mitt Romney a head
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115344
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Agreed. Dems are picking up a few seats in the Senate though. Indiana and Massachusetts.


yep...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Bluestorm5:
If Obama win Florida, we don't have a race IMO.


Agreed. Dems are picking up a few seats in the Senate though. Indiana and Massachusetts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Warren beats Brown in Mass.


whooops....something Republicans didn't count with
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
00Z NAM is just about done running right now.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Warren beats Brown in Mass.

That's big. That's probably the second biggest race in the county tonight, behind the Presidential of course.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7925
Results Presidential Race

Obama
157
49%/ 19,306,395

Romney
153
50%/ 19,996,505

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Warren beats Brown in Mass.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
PA goes to Obama per CNN.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
Quoting Tazmanian:



I don't think any one cares about that right now
I cares.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
464. MTWX
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
wow...what happened to this blog...I was out for some part time job...


Admin gave the go ahead on election banter...


Edit: Teaches me to post without refreshing the page first....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Quite a negative trough right now. This is going to help the developing nor'easter.




I don't think any one cares about that right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115344
Results Presidential Race


Obama
157
48%/ 17,880,270

Romney
153
50%/ 18,566,134


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Quite a negative trough right now. This is going to help the developing nor'easter.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
President (Florida totals)

President

4,644 of 6,153 (75 %) Precincts Reporting

Barack Obama

3,511,298

50 %

Mitt Romney

3,508,980

50 %
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
50%/ 18,404,529


Obama
153
48%/ 17,718,416

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Obama now 157...Romney 153
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Both now tied...153 votes
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
50%/ 17,743,191

Obama
143
49%/ 17,128,416

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
Very very close in Florida right now, it is a close election.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
If Obama win Florida, we don't have a race IMO.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

California has been democrat since 1988. People can, and have, won without it.


is very significant nevertheless
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Things are really starting to get suspenseful tonight... plus there is the election. :P



weather and election night...nice
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
451. wxchaser97
2:28 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Answer:

Romney

Source: New York Times)

I live 4-5ish miles from the border of Detroit. My dad is happy that the auto industry got bailed out as it saved his job.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
450. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:27 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that would kill Romney

California has been democrat since 1988. People can, and have, won without it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32502
449. 1900hurricane
2:27 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Things are really starting to get suspenseful tonight... plus there is the election. :P

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
448. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:27 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Actually, it's expected that CA will go for Obama. That's why pundits have been saying it is key for Romney to win the battleground states like Ohio and Florida.


Hout Ohio is leaning towards Obama though
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
447. GeoffreyWPB
2:27 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
I'll be fair...Give Hawaii to Obama and Alaska to Romney.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
446. whitewabit (Mod)
2:26 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Admin allowed results of the election to be posted. After that it escalated quickly.


But only for tonight ..tomorrow back to weather !!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31729
445. Tazmanian
2:25 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
YAY next polls closeing in 24mins
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115344
444. Xyrus2000
2:25 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that would kill Romney


Actually, it's expected that CA will go for Obama. That's why pundits have been saying it is key for Romney to win the battleground states like Ohio and Florida.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1552
443. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:23 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Admin allowed results of the election to be posted. After that it escalated quickly.


ohhh..I see...thanks
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
442. wxchaser97
2:23 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
wow...what happened to this blog...I was out for some part time job...

Admin allowed results of the election to be posted. After that it escalated quickly.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7956
441. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:22 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
50%/ 16,000,011

Obama
143
48%/ 15,317,735

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
440. Neapolitan
2:22 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Question, who badmouthed the auto industry?
Answer:

Romney

Source: New York Times
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
439. nymore
2:22 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that would kill Romney
why California always goes Democrat
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2259
438. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:19 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


California goes to Obama :)


that would kill Romney
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
437. Bluestorm5
2:19 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
Again: I never said it wasn't expected. I'm merely pointing out the rejective aspects of Romney losing both of the states he's primarily called home, Michigan and Massachusetts.

Anyway, at the moment Obama is up 55-45 in Ohio. According to exit polls, badmouthing the auto industry in a state with a lot of automotive workers may not have been a particularly brilliant campaign strategy.
Question, who badmouthed the auto industry?
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8041
436. Tazmanian
2:19 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


California goes to Obama :)



nic try
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115344
435. GeoffreyWPB
2:18 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:



BOOO


California goes to Obama :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
434. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:17 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
51%/ 15,422,688

Obama
123
48%/ 14,670,603

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
433. Tazmanian
2:17 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yesss!!!



BOOO
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115344
432. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:17 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Pennsylvania goes to Obama.


yesss!!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
431. MAweatherboy1
2:16 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting whitewabit:


NBC just said Romney is up 193 votes in Florida out of 6.7 million votes

I'd say that qualifies as slightly, lol.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7925
430. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:16 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
wow...what happened to this blog...I was out for some part time job...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
429. whitewabit (Mod)
2:16 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Romney now slightly up in FL, also with a slight lead in NC, if he loses either of those he's done. I think he'll probably take both of them though.


NBC just said Romney is up 193 votes in Florida out of 6.7 million votes
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31729
428. GeoffreyWPB
2:16 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Pennsylvania goes to Obama.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11394
427. Neapolitan
2:15 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's expected though...
Again: I never said it wasn't expected. I'm merely pointing out the rejective aspects of Romney losing both of the states he's primarily called home, Michigan and Massachusetts.

Anyway, at the moment Obama is up 55-45 in Ohio. According to exit polls, badmouthing the auto industry in a state with a lot of automotive workers may not have been a particularly brilliant campaign strategy.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
426. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:13 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Results Presidential Race

Romney
153
51%/ 14,185,025


Obama
123
48%/ 13,458,856

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54827
425. MAweatherboy1
2:12 AM GMT on November 07, 2012
Romney now slightly up in FL, also with a slight lead in NC, if he loses either of those he's done. I think he'll probably take both of them though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7925

Viewing: 475 - 425

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
52 °F
Overcast