Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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525. MTWX
Quoting Grothar:
You all realize that tomorrow, one way or another, half the blog is going to hate the other half. Just remember, we all love our country.


Some of us are neutral, and don't care either way...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Slamguitar:


Prop 6 won't pass. I don't want that bridge, but I don't want to approve every international bridge, so eh...

Prop 2-6 won't pass and prop 1 is basically tied.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Results Presidential Race


Romney
173
51%/ 30,509,345

Obama
167
48%/ 29,046,017

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Grothar:


I watched it on TV and saw him lose both times.

And what about Dewey?

Thanks Grothar. I should just have asked you directly.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 616
Quoting Neapolitan:
No change? Obama has had a few failures--many of them due to an obstructive Congress refusing to work with him--but his list of accomplishments is long and astounding.

If Romney loses tonight, he will absolutely not run again in 2016. Though I should rephrase that; he may throw his hat in the ring, but he will be quickly be voted off the island for lack of support. The GOP machinery simply will not spend another several hundred million dollars promoting a candidate who has failed once already. (Which isn't a partisan thing to say; if Obama loses tonight, he can choose to run again in 2016, but the DNC will never support him.)


Hillary will run next term and really show you guys how to run a country as we all know, women know EVERYTHING!

Good night everyone!

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16225
Quoting wxchaser97:
Dang, 5 out of 6 proposals in MI will likely be rejected with the 6th too close to call.


Prop 6 won't pass. I don't want that bridge, but I don't want to approve every international bridge, so eh...
Member Since: July 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183
519. etxwx
Quoting Grothar:


I watched it on TV and saw him lose both times.

And what about Dewey?


You mean he didn't beat Truman?? But I saw it in the newspaper!
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Quoting Grothar:
You all realize that tomorrow, one way or another, half the blog is going to hate the other half.
So what else is new? ;-)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Obama cried in his last campaign in Iowa????
Didn't know that
He was emotional; it was, after all, his last campaign event ever in support of his own political career. I enjoy seeing the human side of any candidate.

Anyway, assuming all the Western states go as expected, Romney needs Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado to win, while Obama can win by picking up just Ohio, or just Florida.
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00Z NAM snowfall accumulation @ 36 hours:

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting allancalderini:
Me too and maybe William near Bermuda ;).

I at least think Valerie in the E ATL. We could see William somewhere though.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting etxwx:

I wasn't old enough to vote yet ;-) but you are correct, he ran in 1952 and 1956 and lost both times. Good memory!


I watched it on TV and saw him lose both times.

And what about Dewey?
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Quoting wxchaser97:
On a weather note, the GFS will begin running soon. I am expecting to see Valerie again.
Me too and maybe William near Bermuda ;).
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512. etxwx
Quoting Grothar:


What about Adlai Stevenson?

I wasn't old enough to vote yet ;-) but you are correct, he ran in 1952 and 1956 and lost both times. Good memory!
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Its over...Ohio and Florida are going to go Obama and the election, unless some serious upsets happen out west.



its not overe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its over...Ohio and Florida are going to go Obama and the election, unless some serious upsets happen out west.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I see high wind warnings are now up with gusts to 70 mph along CT coast...
before it was 60 mph.

So the danger is increasing?


Just a little. They do expect some flooding on Long Island again.
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Quoting etxwx:


In my lifetime, Nixon came close...he skipped the 1964 race though, but he was persistent. From Wikipedia: "Nixon was the running mate of Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Republican Party presidential nominee in the 1952 election. Nixon served for eight years as vice president. He waged an unsuccessful presidential campaign in 1960, narrowly losing to John F. Kennedy, and lost a race for Governor of California in 1962. In 1968, he ran again for the presidency and was elected."


What about Adlai Stevenson?
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Romney's drawing to an inside straight. Looks like the Pres is in the drivers seat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race


Romney
173
51%/ 27,030,938

Obama
157
48%/ 25,730,052

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
3 more votes for the democrats for the senate majority
Iowa is now leaning for Obama
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504. etxwx
Quoting Bielle:


Has a candidate from either party ever lost one presidential race and then run again for the post in the following election?


In my lifetime, Nixon came close...he skipped the 1964 race though, but he was persistent. From Wikipedia: "Nixon was the running mate of Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Republican Party presidential nominee in the 1952 election. Nixon served for eight years as vice president. He waged an unsuccessful presidential campaign in 1960, narrowly losing to John F. Kennedy, and lost a race for Governor of California in 1962. In 1968, he ran again for the presidency and was elected."
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162-163...favor Romney.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Quoting Grothar:
You all realize that tomorrow, one way or another, half the blog is going to hate the other half. Just remember, we all love our country.


Tomorrow we will just move on. No hate.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Quoting Grothar:


I see high wind warnings are now up with gusts to 70 mph along CT coast...
before it was 60 mph.

So the danger is increasing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On a weather note, the GFS will begin running soon. I am expecting to see Valerie again.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
One more vote for Romney...173
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Obama 157
Romney 172
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Lots of Upper Divergence off the Outer Banks. If this storm is going to bomb, that'll be the place for it to start.



Ageostrophic flow @ 300 mb.


I admire your perseverance.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 616
Results Presidential Race


Romney
172
50%/ 25,275,772
Obama
157
48%/ 24,264,529

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am predicting that we will see 4 more years of no change, a.k.a. Obama will win re-election.

Maybe Romney will run again in 2016.
No change? Obama has had a few failures--many of them due to an obstructive Congress refusing to work with him--but his list of accomplishments is long and astounding.

If Romney loses tonight, he will absolutely not run again in 2016. Though I should rephrase that; he may throw his hat in the ring, but he will be quickly be voted off the island for lack of support. The GOP machinery simply will not spend another several hundred million dollars promoting a candidate who has failed once already. (Which isn't a partisan thing to say; if Obama loses tonight, he can choose to run again in 2016, but the DNC will never support him.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You all realize that tomorrow, one way or another, half the blog is going to hate the other half. Just remember, we all love our country.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lots of Upper Divergence off the Outer Banks. If this storm is going to bomb, that'll be the place for it to start.



Ageostrophic flow @ 300 mb.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Obama cried in his last campaign in Iowa????
Didn't know that
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CNN projects Obama gets New Hampshire.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
00Z 40km NAM peaks the Nor'easter 18 hours into its forecast at 981 mb. Looks like snow may fall pretty close to the coast if this run were to verify.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting Grothar:



Link, please!


hahahaha lol...I loved that Gro
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am predicting that we will see 4 more years of no change, a.k.a. Obama will win re-election.

Maybe Romney will run again in 2016.



Link, please!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The democrats are almost in full dominance of the senate...
Romney up to 162..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race


Romney
162
50%/ 23,385,965
Obama
157
48%/ 22,431,194
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Dang, 5 out of 6 proposals in MI will likely be rejected with the 6th too close to call.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:

You and I will be able to vote in 2016. I know who I wouldn't vote for.


Has a candidate from either party ever lost one presidential race and then run again for the post in the following election?
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 616
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll be old enough to vote in the 2016 election. Even if I was old enough, my state is already red, so it really wouldn't make a difference.


sorry.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


do something then...did you vote? can you? I did

I'll be old enough to vote in the 2016 election. Even if I was old enough, my state is already red, so it really wouldn't make a difference.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am predicting that we will see 4 more years of no change, a.k.a. Obama will win re-election.

Maybe Romney will run again in 2016.

You and I will be able to vote in 2016. I know who I wouldn't vote for.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am predicting that we will see 4 more years of no change, a.k.a. Obama will win re-election.



do something then...did you vote? can you? I did
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am predicting that we will see 4 more years of no change, a.k.a. Obama will win re-election.

Maybe Romney will run again in 2016.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
It's not completely done running yet, but the 00Z NAM brings a moderately strong warm core seclusion close to the New Jersey coast before weakening it and looping it around the same vicinity.

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Ya'll want 20 trillion debt owed mostly to the Chicoms? There's a plan for the future.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Answer:

Romney

Source: New York Times


They did go bankrupt.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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