Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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625. j2008
Just posted this on my FB page "There goes the neighborhood, err country. Anybody see how divided our country is? Ridiculous. Split strait in half on matters of who should lead........ if history shows correct, nothing gets done when your society looks like this." Not bashing on either candidate, Congrats to Mr. Obama on winning and I wish him the best of luck.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

*Obama* RE-ELECTED
274
49%/ 41,822,254
Romney
203
50%/ 42,540,568
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54460
Quoting aspectre:
476 PensacolaDoug: Ya'll want 20 trillion debt owed mostly to the Chicoms? There's a plan for the future.

Yep, I do. Ifn they ain't very very very nice to US, they ain't gonna get a cent back.
Owe the bank ten thousand dollars, and the bank owns you.
Owe the bank ten billion dollars, and you own the bank.
Besides:
1) China is less communist than BainsCapitalManagement.
2) Japan's USbond holdings are now once again greater than China's, with SaudiArabia's close behind.
In case you haven't noticed, Japan and China ain't ever been close friends exactly... still aren't.
And without US protection, SaudiArabia ain't a nation, it's fresh meat... which is why SaudiArabia broke the ArabOilEmbargo.
3) When the World economy is heading toward the drain, investment monies are poured into the USdollar and USbonds as safe-havens.
Right now 30year-USbond yields are so low, they're paying US to take their money.
4) And sovereign/governmental USbond holdings are dwarfed by those held by private investment funds, especially including US pension funds.

The bottom line being that right now there's no place for the majority of investment funds to go but down the tubes should the US cease selling its Treasury-bonds.
May not like it, but that's the way the way it is has been since the beginning of WWII. And it'll take at least that long to come up with a viable replacement... which takes us into the 22ndCentury.
Did I hear you say......BUY SILVER?
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


What was our deficit 4 years ago versus now?


My 401K is way up. Does that count?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11282
Quoting Doppler22:

no... to canada... cause thats where i'm going now



Dress warmly- Keeper says it's cold up there!
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00Z GFS at 174 hours:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting clwstmchasr:


If that is the case then a whopping 2 people agree.


Sorry, I almost forgot to vote! ;)

No, silly, I don't mean the votes on that particular post. I mean, he looks at the pluses overall on the various comments on this blog.
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Quoting Doppler22:

no... to canada... cause thats where i'm going now

I got Dragod66...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
Quoting Doppler22:

no... to canada... cause thats where i'm going now


Welcome, Doppler! lol
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Doppler22:

no... to canada... cause thats where i'm going now


hahahaha lol
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Christie is happy tonight!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11282
GFS also tries to get a system going near Bermuda, but it can't do too much. I still think we will see Valerie.
168hrs:


Also the I-96 shooter/terrorist has finally been arrested and is in jail awaiting trial. My roads are safer today.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



...into wonderland...

no... to canada... cause thats where i'm going now
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Four more years of what? The current financial situation originated
well before Obama was in office.


That's right. It started in the late 90's when the government sued Bank of America for not giving mortgages to unqualified buyers.
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Romney tried but may be a better ch in 2016
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Sigh, oh well, there goes my hope in this nation.

Gary Johnson for President 2012! No hard feelings towards the liberals on this blog, but I am very sad.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10345
Is it time again for Hope and Change? Or will it be Cope and Chaos? Four more years to find out. Can't blame the previous administration now because Obama is the previous administration. Hope he gets things turned around.
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Quoting Doppler22:
And there goes the next 4 years of our lives



...into wonderland...
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Quoting MrMixon:


I don't think people want things to remain unchanged. People want things to continue getting better. There are just different opinions about the best way to make them better.


I think perhaps changing horses in mid-stream.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11282
Quoting originalLT:
Looking at the Red and Blue states, if it was by "square milage", Romney would win!


Thankfully it's not, LT!
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Obama wins. yes :)
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
And there goes the next 4 years of our lives
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599. beell
Quoting MrMixon:


I agree. I haven't met a single person, progressive or conservative, who thinks spending more than you take in is a viable long-term solution. I think the big disagreement between the parties right now is not WHETHER to balance the budget, but HOW to balance it.


Kinda like trying to figure out HOW to control our unbalanced climate, aint it?
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It's official. Obama wins re-election.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Tazmanian:



not yet


he did
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Results Presidential Race

*Obama* RE-ELECTED
274
49%/ 41,822,254
Romney
203
50%/ 42,540,568
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54460
Quoting Tazmanian:



not yet


Yes Taz....Obama wins. And the Dems. retain control of the Senate and Pubs of the House.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11282
BOOO I say BOOO
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting clwstmchasr:


This country is in a financial mess. And yet it looks as if we are okay with 4 more years of this.


Four more years of what? The current financial situation originated well before Obama was in office.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



not yet

It's over now Taz.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
Obama wins re-election and Ohio.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
Looking at the Red and Blue states, if it was by "square milage", Romney would win!
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
from CBS

Sarah Huisenga @SarahH_CBSNJDead silence in Boston. RT @rodney_cbsnj: Crowd is going crazy right now in Chicago. #ElectionNight #Campaign2012

OBAMA WINS!!!



not yet
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Thank God we don't have to go through another 2000.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11282
144hrs, not as strong as past runs.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
from CBS

Sarah Huisenga @SarahH_CBSNJDead silence in Boston. RT @rodney_cbsnj: Crowd is going crazy right now in Chicago. #ElectionNight #Campaign2012

OBAMA WINS!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:


This country is in a financial mess. And yet it looks as if we are okay with 4 more years of this.


I don't think people want things to remain unchanged. People want things to continue getting better. There are just different opinions about the best way to make them better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00Z GFS at 144 hours:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Results Presidential Race

Obama
256
48%/ 37,634,950


Romney
203
50%/ 38,869,285


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54460
Quoting allancalderini:
I think Obama has win Washington.


Yes. He won Washington.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
I think Obama has win Washington.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
256 electoral votes... SOON TO WIN!!!
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Obama wins Ohio. Obama wins second term.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11282
Quoting wxchaser97:
Obama takes Iowa and New Mexico, waiting for FL and OH.
If he wins that two he is relected
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Why would you assume that "most" would agree with you?


Because decisions based on empirical evidence are better than ones based on ideology.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Why would you assume that "most" would agree with you?
Because as a climate and weather site, by definition most here would seem to be pro-science. But I didn't mean to offend by including any of you who are against science.

NBC just called the election for Obama after calling Ohio in his favor.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13568

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.