Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Sweet, I didn't know about that page. Thanks!


No problem.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:


The image is Mid-Atlantic. Here's the link.

Sweet, I didn't know about that page. Thanks!
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey Ryan, what are your thoughts on the Nor'easter? Will it stay west, closer to the coast, or will it remain safely offshore?

Hey there Kori! I'm thinking it'll be a moderate event, but nothing too major. I'd say I'm kind of middle of the road on the event; close enough to the coast for coastal locations to occasionally have sustained gale force winds, but not close enough for it to cause too much more wind damage in the Sandy-stricken areas. I'd say the low will drop to the 980-983 mb range tomorrow evening and weaken thereafter as it slowly kicks off to the east. I don't think surge is going to be as bad as some of the predictions say it could be. I'd say 2-3 feet due to storm strength, location, and motion, but I'm not really familiar with that stretch of the coastline, so that is the area of my forecast I think I am most likely to whiff on. Precip/snow is also a difficult forecast, but I think snow will fall fairly close to the coast, but not directly on it. Maybe to Trenton or so will see snow. Areas inland from there could see a couple inches of snow, but I don't think anywhere except the most localized areas will see over 5". I do think it will be a heavy, wet snow though. Closer to the coast, it will be warmer and I think those locations will see somewhere between .5-.75" of rain, so I really don't see it being a rainfall event either, with most of the rain remaining near the warm core seclusion just off the coast.

So yeah, those are pretty much my thoughts right now.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey Civi, here's one you missed.



That is the loop from this site.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
669. MTWX
Quoting KoritheMan:


Had two days off as well (today is day 1 of 2). Oddly, the store is actually reducing hours. I'm no businessman, but I would think a more venerable tactic would be to increase them the closer one gets to the holidays, but perhaps that's just me...


Just saving up for all that overtime they will have to give out once the holiday rush starts on Black Friday..
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I don't know if this has already been said, but the eastern NWS offices are off back-up and fully working again.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Civicane49:


The image is Mid-Atlantic. Here's the link.


Hey Civi, here's one you missed.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
hold evere thing Obama may or may not be the winner after all from what am seeing and hereing from cnn
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Quoting allancalderini:
Omg thank God you are not Honduran people would eat you alive for that thought.


A lot of people eat me alive. I have an affinity for pissing people off. Don't worry. :)
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Quoting Civicane49:
Nor'easter in the making.


Hey, I just said that-___-
lol it's ok.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting KoritheMan:


If you do that, you'd better send me another hurricane for 2013. Isaac gave me my fill this year, but I'm afraid my appetite ignites rather quickly.
Omg thank God you are not Honduran people would eat you alive for that thought.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting KoritheMan:


Had to days off as well (today is day 1 of 2). Oddly, the store is actually reducing hours. I'm no businessman, but I would think a more venerable tactic would be to increase them the closer one gets to the holidays, but perhaps that's just me...


I am a Customer Service Manager. I am increasing hours and hiring new employees. Especially since the Slots in Palm Beach County has passed.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Our Nor'easter in the making, hopefully it stays further out to sea.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Where did that image come from? Do they have a floater up on the Nor'easter?


The image is Mid-Atlantic. Here's the link.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Romney is contesting Ohio. No concession speech.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Tired dude. Working a lot like you. Have two days off. Keep up the good work Kori.


Had two days off as well (today is day 1 of 2). Oddly, the store is actually reducing hours. I'm no businessman, but I would think a more venerable tactic would be to increase them the closer one gets to the holidays, but perhaps that's just me...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


If you do that, you'd better send me another hurricane for 2013. Isaac gave me my fill this year, but I'm afraid my appetite ignites rather quickly.

I can only send myself to someone every six years and I will likely be retired anyway.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Where did that image come from? Do they have a floater up on the Nor'easter?


No, just look at anything I post and Civicane will post an almost identical one right after me. If you miss mine you can always look at his.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting allancalderini:
I agree we better go to weather again.


I also vote for weather.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Since the election is over, probably a good idea to slide toward weather talk anyway. I will make Valerie form just so you can come back.


If you do that, you'd better send me another hurricane for 2013. Isaac gave me my fill this year, but I'm afraid my appetite ignites rather quickly.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


That's due to good analysts investing your stocks in short sells.


The Dow opened at 8,279.63 on the morning Obama took the oath of office.

Today, it stands at 13,245.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting KoritheMan:
On a weather related note, Valerie better not ruin my vacation! No blogging till the 12th.

Since the election is over, probably a good idea to slide toward weather talk anyway. I will make Valerie form just so you can come back.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Well, that's certainly one way to look at it. Maybe the best way in fact.


Hey Ryan, what are your thoughts on the Nor'easter? Will it stay west, closer to the coast, or will it remain safely offshore?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Sure do. How are you this fine evening, sir?


Tired dude. Working a lot like you. Have two days off. Keep up the good work Kori.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Quoting KoritheMan:


This world would be boring without problems.

Well, that's certainly one way to look at it. Probably a good one too.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
On a weather related note, Valerie better not ruin my vacation! No blogging till the 12th.
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Quoting goosegirl1:



Wow, it's colder here for once... 27 degrees F. If the precipitation from the new storm reaches this far inland, I may have a white morning.




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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Bielle:


Politics and religion: I think this should stop here. The election is over.
I agree we better go to weather again.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



its a little chilly

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 PM EST Tuesday 6 November 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 30.10 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 33.8°F
Dewpoint: 23.9°F
Humidity: 67 %
Wind: ENE 6 mph



Wow, it's colder here for once... 27 degrees F. If the precipitated from the new storm reaches this far inland, I may have a white morning.
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well congrats to both men and all the best to my friends in the united states of america


and congrats to all the bloggers a few jabs but nothing bad while admin allowed us to post the results


thanks
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Quoting MrMixon:


Honestly, I think the budget will be easier to fix than the climate. But yeah, this world has problems. Always has, always will. But hey, I still have my good days. Always have, always will.


This world would be boring without problems.
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Quoting Grothar:

Where did that image come from? Do they have a floater up on the Nor'easter?
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I don't have any pictures, emails, video, DNA, physical science of a man who walked the earth 2,000 years ago, died for my sins and ascended into heaven. Sometimes it takes faith over science.


Facepalm...
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483 Bielle: Has a candidate from either party ever lost one presidential race and then run again for the post in the following election?

AdlaiStevenson lost to DwightEisenhower in 1952 and 1956
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Yes my son. You have a question?


Sure do. How are you this fine evening, sir?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh. My. God.


Yes my son. You have a question?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11538
Quoting beell:


Kinda like trying to figure out HOW to control our unbalanced climate, aint it?


Honestly, I think the budget will be easier to fix than the climate. But yeah, this world has problems. Always has, always will. But hey, I still have my good days. Always have, always will.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27208
Quoting goosegirl1:



Dress warmly- Keeper says it's cold up there!



its a little chilly

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 PM EST Tuesday 6 November 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 30.10 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 33.8°F
Dewpoint: 23.9°F
Humidity: 67 %
Wind: ENE 6 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55984
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I don't have any pictures, emails, video, DNA, physical science of a man who walked the earth 2,000 years ago, died for my sins and ascended into heaven. Sometimes it takes faith over science.


Politics and religion: I think this should stop here. The election is over.
Member Since: September 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 616
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I don't have any pictures, emails, video, DNA, physical science of a man who walked the earth 2,000 years ago, died for my sins and ascended into heaven. Sometimes it takes faith over science.


Oh. My. God.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting goosegirl1:



Dress warmly- Keeper says it's cold up there!

It is only cold during the winter up here. In summer it can get pretty warm up here. I am very close to Canada.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
625. j2008
Just posted this on my FB page "There goes the neighborhood, err country. Anybody see how divided our country is? Ridiculous. Split strait in half on matters of who should lead........ if history shows correct, nothing gets done when your society looks like this." Not bashing on either candidate, Congrats to Mr. Obama on winning and I wish him the best of luck.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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