Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting VaStormGuy:
Colorado and Washington State have approved the legalization of marijuana, Maryland legalized gay marriage, and Puerto Rico is currently favoring statehood. Big things have happened today besides Obama winning.

I wouldn't mind having 51 states in the US and I support PR becoming a state.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting MTWX:


Heck the stores here had their Christmas stuff up before Halloween...


I saw one store that has some Christmas materials few days after Halloween.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
HIGH RESOLUTION 00TO48 00Z/12Z RUNS ONLY
RUN 00Z HR 12


That's a really tight warm core seclusion in there. The high-res NAM derivatives have been showing that for a few runs now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wish one day people could just respect each others different beliefs. I did NOT agree with Romney/Ryan's beliefs on many many things (Especially as a woman), however, I respect those who do share their beliefs and voted for them. I will not call them ignorant or any other names. I am just still surprised at the divide between fellow human beings and our fellow Americans in so many things.

But with this finally all out of the way.. I know I am prepared for this next storm, regardless of its intensity. At least, as prepared as we can be. Re-stocked all of the supplies we used during Sandy and the power outage after her.

I knew the gas problem wouldn't go away overnight, but I am still surprised it honestly hasn't gotten ANY better here (on Long Island). The lines may actually be worse.
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Quoting MTWX:


Heck the stores here had their Christmas stuff up before Halloween...

I have seen plenty of that around here(MI).
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Colorado and Washington State have approved the legalization of marijuana, Maryland legalized gay marriage, and Puerto Rico is currently favoring statehood. Big things have happened today besides Obama winning.
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Quoting MTWX:


Is it just me or does the circulation look like it is not going to make offshore??

Judging by this loop, it looks like it is moving dang near due north in central Virginia...


The circulation is currently over land. But, it is forecasted to move more east and away from the shore.
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718. MTWX
Quoting wxchaser97:
Am I the only one who doesn't mind Christmas festivities before Thanksgiving here?


Heck the stores here had their Christmas stuff up before Halloween...
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1392
I really do like this water vapor image; it shows the big picture with this nor'easter very well, from the axis of the negatively tilted trough to the diffluence of the upper level flow promoting the growth of convection and lowering of surface pressures with the developing storm. It does only have about 24 hours to strengthen though, as the upper level low currently in the NC/VA area catches the surface low by then and begins to fill it when they become vertically stacked.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HIGH RESOLUTION 00TO48 00Z/12Z RUNS ONLY
RUN 00Z HR 27

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Can I post X-Mas videos yet?
NO! (please, no!)
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HIGH RESOLUTION 00TO48 00Z/12Z RUNS ONLY
RUN 00Z HR 21

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713. MTWX
Quoting Civicane49:


Is it just me or does the circulation look like it is not going to make offshore??

Judging by this loop, it looks like it is moving dang near due north in central Virginia...
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1392
Am I the only one who doesn't mind Christmas festivities before Thanksgiving here?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
HIGH RESOLUTION 00TO48 00Z/12Z RUNS ONLY
RUN 00Z HR 15

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HIGH RESOLUTION 00TO48 00Z/12Z RUNS ONLY
RUN 00Z HR 12

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Quoting Civicane49:


At least wait after Thanksgiving.


Bah ****ing humbug.*

*I am a firm Christmas advocate. I genuinely enjoy it. Just not before Thanksgiving.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Can I post X-Mas videos yet?


At least wait after Thanksgiving.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
707. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F
9:00 AM FST November 7 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01F (1003 hPa) located at 21.0S 176.0E. Position poor based on multispectral visible and peripheral surface observations. The disturbance is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Sea surface temperature is around 26C.

Tropical Disturbance 01 lies just to the east of an upper level trough in a high sheared environment. Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastward with further development.

Potential for tropical disturbance 01 to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is LOW.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Can I post X-Mas videos yet?

Christmas music is already heard in my area and the stores already have Christmas stuff so yeah.

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


You can see the moist/dry upper level subtropical jet running parallel to the Gulf Stream and feeding the storm to the south.

I see it, feeding our storm. Hurricane wind warnings are in affect just off the coast and high wind warnings are in affect inland.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Maryland...Gay Marriage...Vote...Yes
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Can I post X-Mas videos yet?


No wait until after Thanksgiving at least.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Can I post X-Mas videos yet?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10975
Quoting KoritheMan:


A lot of people eat me alive. I have an affinity for pissing people off. Don't worry. :)
hahahaa ok.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4009
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting wxchaser97:
Our Nor'easter in the making, hopefully it stays further out to sea.


You can see the moist/dry upper level subtropical jet running parallel to the Gulf Stream and feeding the storm to the south.
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Quoting yqt1001:
Just a warning to Romney lovers who are migrating to Canada:

1. We are far more left-wing than the US, even the liberal US.
2. Legalized gay marriage
3. Universal healthcare
4. High taxes for everyone
5. Obama is much more popular in Canada than in the US

So you guys are better off in Mexico than Canada.

That's all I'll say about the election. (congratz obama!)

Don't go tell that to Doppler22, he wouldn't want to move to Mexico.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Really nice diffluent upper jet for the time being.

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Quoting Grothar:


You usually post the same right after me. I just thought I would do the same.


Oh okay. lol
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Just a warning to Romney lovers who are migrating to Canada:

1. We are far more left-wing than the US, even the liberal US.
2. Legalized gay marriage
3. Universal healthcare
4. High taxes for everyone
5. Obama is much more popular in Canada than in the US

So you guys are better off in Mexico than Canada.

That's all I'll say about the election. (congratz obama!)
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Quoting Civicane49:


I just posted that one. :P


You usually post the same right after me. I just thought I would do the same.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting Allan012:
If you voted in favor of Obama, your a nut...




I think your the one that a nut
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting MTWX:


It's over Taz... He may not actually have Ohio, but both Florida and Virginia are 95+% in and both are leaning toward Obama...



no its not overe some in is not right here
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Quoting plutorising:
is the noreaster doing what everybody has been expecting? it looks like it's weaker and faster than predicted.


It's weaker.
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is the noreaster doing what everybody has been expecting? it looks like it's weaker and faster than predicted.
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Quoting Grothar:


I just posted that one. :P
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
03Z Surface Analysis from the HPC:

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Quoting MTWX:


Just saving up for all that overtime they will have to give out once the holiday rush starts on Black Friday..


They've pissed me off. I might just say no (as far as I know Walmart grants the right to refuse overtime).
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I am a Customer Service Manager. I am increasing hours and hiring new employees. Especially since the Slots in Palm Beach County has passed.


Nobody can really decide why they're doing this. There are a lot of conflicting stories ranging from a lawsuit to Isaac to annual business tactics. I started exactly a year ago, and didn't have to deal with anything remotely similar to this. My first week was a 36 hour week, and I worked six days in a row.

I've always been privy to the lawsuit theory myself, but apparently over a dozen stores are on strike (or were a few weeks ago) that it makes me wonder if it's not a much deeper problem than they're letting us know, probably something on the district level.
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I could also see myself whiffing on my snow forecast as well. I've been historically bad on those.
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676. MTWX
Quoting Tazmanian:
hold evere thing Obama may or may not be the winner after all from what am seeing and hereing from cnn


It's over Taz... He may not actually have Ohio, but both Florida and Virginia are 95+% in and both are leaning toward Obama...
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1392
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Sweet, I didn't know about that page. Thanks!


No problem.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.