Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting VaStormGuy:
Colorado and Washington State have approved the legalization of marijuana, Maryland legalized gay marriage, and Puerto Rico is currently favoring statehood. Big things have happened today besides Obama winning.
WHY are you posting this cr*p on a weather forum!? Go somewhere else and post.
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AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Philadelphia has not had 2" of snow in November since 1995; that could change later today into tonight
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2029
Quoting wxchaser97:
Am I the only one who doesn't mind Christmas festivities before Thanksgiving here?


nope not the only one ... i love x-mas. after Remembrance day we Canucks get right into it.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
What happened to this storm NOT being as bad as thought?..moderate to Major flooding in and around NYC is the current Warning..they are finding Hurricane force winds offshore now..sounds Bad to me
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
450 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALIZED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072-074-071800-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.W.0004.121107T1600Z-121108T1100Z/
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
450 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK HARBOR.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...AROUND 3.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
AROUND 3 FT LATE TONIGHT.

* BEACH EROSION...LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET ON TOP OF
ANY SURGE COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION AND
OVERWASH.

* TIMING...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN PLACES DUE TO CHANGES TO
UNDERWATER SLOPES AND/OR LOSS OF PROTECTIVE DUNES BOTH CAUSED BY
SANDY. WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
BASEMENTS WILL HAMPER RECOVERY EFFORTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.

...NY HARBOR WATER LEVELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD......
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY... ...
................................(MLLW)........... ..........

THE BATTERY NYC.....137 PM...........7.55-8.05.....MODERATE...
BERGEN POINT NY.....128 PM...........8.25-8.75.....MODERATE...

...NY HARBOR WATER LEVELS FOR LATE TONIGHT...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD......
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY... ...
................................(MLLW)........... ..........

THE BATTERY NYC.....241 AM...........6.5-7.6.......MINOR......
BERGEN POINT NY.....230 AM...........7.2-8.3.......MINOR......

...OCEAN WATER LEVELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD......
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY... ...
................................(MLLW)........... ..........

MONTAUK POINT NY....312 PM...........5.45-5.95.....MODERATE...

...OCEAN WATER LEVELS FOR LATE TONIGHT...

COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD......
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY... ...
................................(MLLW)........... ..........

MONTAUK POINT NY....352 AM...........4.0-5.1.......MINOR......

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ALONG
DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS MAY NOT
RECEDE MUCH BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH TIDES.

* AT SANDY HOOK... NEW JERSEY (SANDY HOOK BAY) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
118 PM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.5 TO 8.0 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 212 AM THURSDAY...
WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER.

* AT SEASIDE HEIGHTS... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 1248 PM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 142 AM THURSDAY...
WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER.

* AT ATLANTIC CITY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
101 PM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 157 AM THURSDAY... WITH A
FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT CAPE MAY... NEW JERSEY (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 135
PM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 8.0 TO 8.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 231 AM THURSDAY... WITH A
FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 8.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

* AT BREAKWATER HARBOR... DELAWARE (DELAWARE BAY) HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AT 221 PM... WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 302 AM THURSDAY...
WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER
LOW WATER.

* AT REHOBOTH BEACH... DELAWARE (OCEANFRONT) HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT
133 PM...WITH A FORECAST TIDE LEVEL NEAR 7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER. HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 207 AM THURSDAY...WITH A
FORECAST TIDE LEVEL OF 7.0 TO 7.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER.

* HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS...ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG
RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.

* SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE ALONG THE COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON
DELAWARE BAY SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

* IMPACTS...NUMEROUS ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD AND ADDITIONAL MINOR TO
MODERATE PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE ELEVATED TIDES WILL
HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON RECOVERY EFFORTS. THE TIDES AND THE
WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO MAJOR BEACH
EROSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS COASTAL FLOOD WARNING INDICATES THAT MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING
IS IMMINENT. BE PREPARED FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE
RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE WATER MAY BE
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING YOURSELF IN
DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO COSTLY
REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR
COUNTY... PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN
LOWER CASE).

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
This is NOT good for those poor people up there.......COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
326 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...A STRONG COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH TO A POSITION OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning/evening, all. Back to being a little chilly here, 46 degrees. I'm afraid this new storm in the NE is going to really complicate clean up and restoring power to those still without power.

Good Evening,
Mike Bettes ‏@TWCMikeBettes
Total power outages after #Sandy is now down to 636,000.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting klaatuborada:
Winds are really starting to pick up. Something was banging against the house and woke me up. I'm groggy, but I'll have to go out and check it.

Um, why didn't you go out and check before coming on here, Priorities!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

MT @accu_adrienne: United Airlines has canceled 500 flights starting noon today - noon Thursday out of EWR, JFK & LGA airports
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2029
Good morning/evening, all. Back to being a little chilly here, 46 degrees. I'm afraid this new storm in the NE is going to really complicate clean up and restoring power to those still without power.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winds are really starting to pick up. Something was banging against the house and woke me up. I'm groggy, but I'll have to go out and check it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Bah ****ing humbug.*

*I am a firm Christmas advocate. I genuinely enjoy it. Just not before Thanksgiving.


makes me miss Thanksgiving even more over here...nothing between Halloween and xmas! And halloween is still pretty minor here (though getting bigger) so some places go straight to xmas in September LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
8 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

In the meantime, as per weatherbell idea, the noreaster is here. Hurricane wind warnings offshore,storm warnings coast, snow inland
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2029
Hurricane Force Wind Warning
ANZ084-ANZ470-071500-
HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON INCLUDING THE WATERS W OF
39.3N 71.9W...SW TO 37.7N 72.9W
400 AM EST WED NOV 07 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

.TODAY...N TO NE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 TO 65 KT...
THEN BECOMING N TO NW. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT BUILDING TO 20 TO 28 FT.
AREAS OF RAIN. A CHANCE OF TSTMS FAR E.
.TONIGHT...N TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO
23 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 TO 17 FT. AREAS OF RAIN. A CHANCE OF TSTMS
FAR NE.
.THU...NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8
TO 13 FT...HIGHEST E. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3
TO 5 FT.
.SAT...WINDS DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FT.
.SUN...WINDS BECOMING S TO SW 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
$$
ANZ083-ANZ272-ANZ273-ANZ370-071430-
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...FROM THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO HUDSON
CANYON INCLUDING THE WATERS SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET ISLAND...OUT TO 1000 FM
300 AM EST WED NOV 07 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 TO 65 KT...THEN
OVER E PORTION DIMINISHING TO E TO SE 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11
FT BUILDING TO 20 TO 28 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W. RAIN. A
CHANCE OF TSTMS E PORTION.
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING N 45 TO 55 KT...EXCEPT E OF 71W
BECOMING S AND DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 15 TO 22 FT. AREAS OF RAIN. A CHANCE OF TSTMS E PORTION.
.THU...WINDS BECOMING NW 30 TO 40 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 12 TO 18 FT...HIGHEST SE. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 14 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS E. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.FRI...N TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT E OF 72W TO 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...WINDS DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN...WINDS BECOMING S TO SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
$$


Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-072200-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0002.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA
340 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND
BECOME STEADIER LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS
MORE HEAVILY THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE THE
FORM OF SNOW...AND THE SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS MORE HEAVILY AND CHANGES TO
SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS ON COLDER SURFACES IS EXPECTED. DURING THE
HEAVIEST OF THE SNOWFALL...SECONDARY ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. MAIN ARTERIES MAY EXPERIENCE SOME
SLICK SPOTS AS WELL...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S...BUT TEMPERATURES MAY FALL BACK
CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Noreaster: WINTER STORM WARNING! now around PHL with Hurricane Wind Warning offshore, storm on coast. Says it all! http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/266125974 482087936/photo/1
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2029
NAEFS model spread at 12 hours.....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting aspectre:
SuperstormSandy
..out in the ocean they are finding hurricane force wind s and gusts..hope this stays offshore
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
SuperstormSandy
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Good Morning Folks..7-Day for the Tampa Bay area......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting Slamguitar:
Hmm, all the Great Lakes States were taken by Obama. Indiana went to Romney and has the least coastline of all.
Did anyone here watch Weatherbrains yesterday. Jeff Piotrowski was on the show talking about what he saw along the coastlines in the effected areas. He said in his opinion it's worse than Katrina. The only reason why there is not as much media attention about it is cause of the election and now that it's over the news about the devastation that Sandy brought will start to be brought out. Have a watch here for yourself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH TO A POSITION OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THOSE AREAS THAT WERE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY SANDY
LAST WEEK WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HIGH WINDS.

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008>010-012- 015>019-021-
PAZ067>071-072200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WI.Y.0011.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCES TER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...
CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...MOR RISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
MILLVILLE...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA
329 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* THIS IS A POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS SITUATION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AREAS THAT WERE HARD HIT BY THE STORM LAST WEEK.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...STRUCTURES AND TREES WEAKENED BY THE STORM LAST WEEK
MAY BE FURTHER DAMAGED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS. THIS
COULD ALSO RESULT IN RENEWED POWER OUTAGES...PARTICULARLY IN
AREAS WHERE THE ELECTRICAL SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAKENED STATE.
ANY LEFT OVER DEBRIS FROM LAST WEEKS STORM COULD BECOME A
HAZARD DURING THIS NEW STORM... ESPECIALLY IF IT IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO BECOME AIRBORNE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS. IF POSSIBLE... NOW IS THE TIME TO BRING IN OR
SECURE OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT COULD BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE STRONG
WINDS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. LIGHT-WEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS SUCH AS PATIO
FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS SHOULD BE SECURED.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
ANZ083-ANZ272-ANZ273-ANZ370-071430-
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...FROM THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO HUDSON
CANYON INCLUDING THE WATERS SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET ISLAND...OUT TO 1000 FM
300 AM EST WED NOV 07 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 TO 65 KT...THEN
OVER E PORTION DIMINISHING TO E TO SE 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11
FT BUILDING TO 20 TO 28 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W. RAIN. A
CHANCE OF TSTMS E PORTION.
.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING N 45 TO 55 KT...EXCEPT E OF 71W
BECOMING S AND DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 15 TO 22 FT. AREAS OF RAIN. A CHANCE OF TSTMS E PORTION.
.THU...WINDS BECOMING NW 30 TO 40 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 12 TO 18 FT...HIGHEST SE. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 14 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS E. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.FRI...N TO NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING
TO 3 TO 5 FT...EXCEPT E OF 72W TO 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...WINDS DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN...WINDS BECOMING S TO SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
$$

.FORECASTER CLARK. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Yesterday, the 47% of americans whom Romney does not care about Spoke loud and clear..4 more years..........yesterday, the women spoke..4 more years...talk about a supposed smart guy shooting himself in the foot.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Coastal Storm Set to Impact the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

A developing storm off the East Coast will bring heavy rain, wet snow and gusty winds to parts of the Northeast through Thursday. Winds could blow down trees and limbs weakened from Sandy, resulting in additional power outages. A wintery mix of precipitation is expected from northern Maryland to central New England. A couple of inches of snow will be possible, especially at higher elevations.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41842
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Based on the 03Z surface analysis from the HPC and continued development of the storm, the surface low is now probably near the SSE edge of the deepest convection (near 36.25*N and 72.5*W using a decimal coordinate system) and with a pressure of ~998 mb or so. It'll be interesting to see how close I am when the HPC releases their 06Z surface analysis.


Looks like I was pretty darn close! The low is very near where I thought it would be analyzed, and 2 mb deeper than I progged. I'd call that respectable.

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If the high res models are to be believed, we should be about here right now:



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Quoting sullivanweather:
Check out the hi-res simulated radars for 11/8 @10am.








Eye-like feature quite apparent.

Really interesting to see if it verifies. Here are some closer looks at it, courtesy of the PSU E-Wall, same time frame (@39 hours), NNM on the left and ARW on the right:



Closer look at the simulated radar



10m winds show a compact core almost like a tropical system, although it is still attached to a frontal boundary as seen by the convergence extending to the ENE of the circulation



1000-500 mb thickness definitely shows it as a warm core system...



...as does 2m temperature (along with the front extending ENE)...



...and 850 mb temps.
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Based on the 03Z surface analysis from the HPC and continued development of the storm, the surface low is now probably near the SSE edge of the deepest convection (near 36.25*N and 72.5*W using a decimal coordinate system) and with a pressure of ~998 mb or so. It'll be interesting to see how close I am when the HPC releases their 06Z surface analysis.

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Check out the hi-res simulated radars for 11/8 @10am.








Eye-like feature quite apparent.
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Quoting aspectre:
716 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: HIGH RESOLUTION 00TO48 00Z/12Z RUNS ONLY -- RUN 00Z HR 27
723 1900hurricane: That's a really tight warm core seclusion in there. The high-res NAM derivatives have been showing that for a few runs now.

980millibar? Time to call Invest91L?

No 91L; just because it may have a tight warm core when mature doesn't mean that it is tropical. It will still be deriving most of it's energy from baroclinic forcing and fronts will still be attached.

Latest surface analysis with rainbow IR overlay:

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Quoting SyriboTigereyes:
I wish one day people could just respect each others different beliefs. I did NOT agree with Romney/Ryan's beliefs on many many things (Especially as a woman), however, I respect those who do share their beliefs and voted for them. I will not call them ignorant or any other names. I am just still surprised at the divide between fellow human beings and our fellow Americans in so many things.

But with this finally all out of the way.. I know I am prepared for this next storm, regardless of its intensity. At least, as prepared as we can be. Re-stocked all of the supplies we used during Sandy and the power outage after her.

I knew the gas problem wouldn't go away overnight, but I am still surprised it honestly hasn't gotten ANY better here (on Long Island). The lines may actually be worse.

It got worse because your governor didn't impose a 10 gallon per fillup limit and impose odd-even rationing. Christie finally did this last Saturday, but it should have been done the first day after the storm. The panic buying would have been under control by now by simply doing a few common sense things that have been used successfully when we've had other gas shortages.
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716 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: HIGH RESOLUTION 00TO48 00Z/12Z RUNS ONLY -- RUN 00Z HR 27
723 1900hurricane: That's a really tight warm core seclusion in there. The high-res NAM derivatives have been showing that for a few runs now.

980millibar? Time to call Invest91L?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
701 GeoffreyWPB: Can I post X-Mas videos yet?

It's not post-Christmas yet. Wait until January5th.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
This is the same graph I posted earlier, except in millibars (which I find much more readable and like much more).



Notice the ~15 mb drop in 24 hours here.
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25 dead, thousands displaced by flooding in southern India
Posted on November 7, 2012
November 7, 2012 – INDIA – Torrential rains in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh have killed at least 25 people and displaced tens of thousands of villagers over the past week, an official said Monday. Downpours triggered by a cyclone that hit the coast last Wednesday near Chennai left hundreds of villages inundated and 60,000 people in relief camps, Karikal Valaven, a government officer overseeing emergency operations, said. “At least 25 people have died and thousands have lost their houses. The rains have damaged all the standing crops in the coastal region,” he told AFP. Disaster response teams helped move people to higher ground in rubber boats and nearly 100 shelters were opened across the state to accommodate people fleeing the flood zone. “The unseasonal rainfall has destroyed our crops and our entire field is submerged in water,” Arku Rajaipa, a farmer in Guntur district, one of the worst-affected regions, told a local TV news channel. “We will have to depend on the government for food the whole year.” Cyclone Nilam struck 50 kilometres (30 miles) south of Chennai last week in the neighbouring state of Tamil Nadu before moving inland, killing at least 10 people. The Andhra Pradesh state government said in a statement that it had handed out 100,000 food packets. Authorities on Monday said many villages had been cut off for days. “The biggest task is to establish contact with 130 villages. They are safe but have suffered big losses as all their rice crop has been destroyed,” Valaven said. All trains were suspended from the coastal cities of Visakhapatnam and Vijaywada, a major transit route in the region. The meteorological office has forecast more rain, and people from low-lying areas have been advised to head to shelters. In September two million people were forced to flee their homes in the north-eastern state of Assam after floods triggered by heavy monsoon rains. –Space Daily
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The Milky Way’s black hole shoots out brightest flare ever
Posted on November 7, 2012
November 7, 2012 – SPACE - For some unknown reason, the black hole at the center of the Milky Way galaxy shoots out an X-ray flare about once a day. These flares last a few hours with the brightness ranging from a few times to nearly one hundred times that of the black hole’s regular output. But back in February 2012, astronomers using the Chandra X-Ray Observatory detected the brightest flare ever observed from the central black hole, also known as Sagittarius A*. The flare, recorded 26,000 light years away, was 150 times brighter than the black hole’s normal luminosity. What causes these outbursts? Scientists aren’t sure. But Sagittarius A* doesn’t seem to be slowing down, even though as black holes age they should show a decrease in activity. –Universe Today

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Quoting Slamguitar:
Hmm, all the Great Lakes States were taken by Obama. Indiana went to Romney and has the least coastline of all.

Ohio shouldn't even be considered a Great Lake state;) It is the bailout that lead to part of it. Also all of the props are losing in MI, with prop 1 very close.
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Pressure is currently dropping very quickly at buoy 41001 about 150 nm east of Hatteras, which according to the most recent surface analysis is very close to the center of our developing nor'easter. The pressure there looks like it will drop below 1000 mb (~29.53 in HG) very soon.

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Hmm, all the Great Lakes States were taken by Obama. Indiana went to Romney and has the least coastline of all.
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Looks like Obama is going to win all of the swing states, the popular vote, and the Electoral College 332-206.
Member Since: October 30, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 83
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting VaStormGuy:


Maybe one day DC will be a state too.

Maybe, also VA is taken by Obama.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm in favor of it for many reasons, the most important one being that maybe it'll dispel the retards who keep ****ing about storms that miss the US. We could say "No no no. Puerto Rico is a part of the United States now, remember?"

teehee

LOL!
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I wouldn't mind having 51 states in the US and I support PR becoming a state.


I'm in favor of it for many reasons, the most important one being that maybe it'll dispel the retards who keep *****ing about storms that miss the US. We could say "No no no. Puerto Rico is a part of the United States now, remember?"

teehee
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I wouldn't mind having 51 states in the US and I support PR becoming a state.


Maybe one day DC will be a state too.
Member Since: October 30, 2012 Posts: 1 Comments: 83
Quoting MTWX:


Heck the stores here had their Christmas stuff up before Halloween...

I went to the store a couple of days after Halloween to get a bunch of cheap candy and the store was already stocked full of Christmas stuff. Ridiculous...
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Quoting VaStormGuy:
Colorado and Washington State have approved the legalization of marijuana, Maryland legalized gay marriage, and Puerto Rico is currently favoring statehood. Big things have happened today besides Obama winning.

I wouldn't mind having 51 states in the US and I support PR becoming a state.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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