Wednesday's Nor'easter to have lower impact than originally feared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:11 PM GMT on November 06, 2012

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An early-season Nor'easter is taking shape along the coast of South Carolina today, but is now forecast to be weaker and move farther offshore than originally forecast, resulting in lower impacts to the New Jersey and New York coasts than originally feared. The storm will head north-northeast along the coast on Wednesday, intensifying into a 990 mb Nor'easter, a few hundred miles south of Long Island, NY, by Wednesday evening. The storm will likely bring wind gusts up to 50 mph and a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, including New York City. High waves of 10 - 20 feet will ride on top of this surge, and cause moderate beach erosion along much of the coastline damaged by Hurricane Sandy. The greatest flooding will occur during the Wednesday early afternoon high tide cycle, near 1 pm EST. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. The Nor'easter's strongest winds will likely affect eastern Long Island and coastal Massachusetts, where wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible Wednesday evening and Thursday. The storm's heaviest rains will stay offshore, and only Eastern Massachusetts can expect to see more than 1" of rain. The storm isn't going to tap into a large reservoir of cold, Arctic air, which will limit snowfall amounts to perhaps 1 - 2" along a swath from Northern New Jersey northeastwards, across Western Massachusetts and into Maine. While the storm will slow down recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, this is a pretty ordinary Nor'easter of the type the Northeast sees several times per year, and will not cause major damage.


Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for 1 pm EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012, from the 12Z (7 am EST) run of the GFS model made on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to affect Southern New Jersey, eastern Long Island, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, but miss the areas hardest hit by Sandy--northern New Jersey and the New York City area.


Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ for Wednesday's Nor'easter, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.7', occurring Wednesday afternoon. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.8' around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6' storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2' above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)

More Sandy links
I gave a TED talk in Bermuda in October 2011, and presented a list of nine potential $100 billion weather disasters that could happen in the next 30 years. Number six on my list was a hurricane hitting New York City. “We really don’t know what climate change is going to do to hurricanes,” I said, “but it makes sense that it’ll probably make the strongest ones stronger.” If you want to see what I had to say about a hurricane hitting New York City, plus the other eight disasters I think have at least a 10% chance of happening in the next 30 years, the 18-minute video is up on the main TED site. (I've since updated my list to twelve potential $100 billion disasters, and plan on running a blog series on the topic in 2013.)

Was Sandy a hurricane at landfall? Lee Grenci, a senior lecturer and forecaster at the Department of Meteorology at Penn State, weighs in on the matter in this guest blog post. He presents evidence that Sandy was not a hurricane at landfall, and was instead a rapidly evolving hybrid storm. Lee , who is a frequent contributor to Weatherwise magazine, will be joining wunderground as a featured blogger in December, and we're looking forward to having his excellent writings!

Be sure to vote today!

Jeff Masters

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3 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Winds now gusting over 55 mph at Buzzards Bay http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/266174977 949171712/photo/1


7 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

When was the last time people in NJ saw two major precip events in a row with radar echoes moving west? http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=DIX&p roduct=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Uhm...you might want to read back some. A majority of the discussion on here last night and this morning has been about politics.

Congratulations Obama...you weren't the candidate I was hoping for, but maybe you'll get America on the right track.
I guess I stand corrected. For them to allow an off-topic discussion is very unexpected. Well, the present is opened now, so I hope the Admin closes it and puts it away soon.
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Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Visible loop watching developing rogue storm as it lashes northeast http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.htm l …
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026
Quoting AussieStorm:

I just hope those generators are not indoors. Wouldn't want to suffocate to death.
Good luck to you in NJ.


Oh goodness no! Lets hope nobody is doing that! Most of the ones I've seen are on concrete blocks or picnic type tables -- heavy sturdy tables several feet from any house or window.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26529
819. atris
Quoting originalLT:
What is the "supposed name", Athena or Alexandra? I'm seeing both here.


On Most weather sites ,its being called a Nor'easter or winter storm , but I guess here ,it will be called Athena but the NWS is not....
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Thanks TomB.
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What is the "supposed name", Athena or Alexandra? I'm seeing both here.
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Quoting JerseyShoreGirl:
Athena, please be kind everyone. Readers that have loved ones in Point Pleasant we are seeing on the news they built 10 ft dunes that stretch 8 blocks.

We all got together to clean up as much debris. During that clean up we found a full 200 lb propane tank across the street along the treeline. I am glad that is now in safe hands.

So many people still without power. Those that can be in their homes have lifted their generators up to higher ground just in case we flood. We are 6 ft above sea-level so we are not taking a chance. We will see how it all turns out in 6-12 hrs.

Good luck to all in Athena's path.

I just hope those generators are not indoors. Wouldn't want to suffocate to death.
Good luck to you in NJ.
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Athena, please be kind everyone. Readers that have loved ones in Point Pleasant we are seeing on the news they built 10 ft dunes that stretch 8 blocks.

We all got together to clean up as much debris. During that clean up we found a full 200 lb propane tank across the street along the treeline. I am glad that is now in safe hands.

So many people still without power. Those that can be in their homes have lifted their generators up to higher ground just in case we flood. We are 6 ft above sea-level so we are not taking a chance. We will see how it all turns out in 6-12 hrs.

Good luck to all in Athena's path.
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810. atris
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Winter Storm Alexandra beginning to swing in some precip of the coast here.

Get ready, Folks.



LOL on Alexandra ...

But yes I sure hope the folks will be ready and safe

It looks Nasty

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I am starting my own winter storm nomenclature system. Why? Because I can. I am going to call this one Alexandra. I am also going to make up my own zip codes and rename all the roads where I live.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
That's excellent, and expected. I'm sure there'll be a ton of people on today saying it's stupid or pretentious or arrogant of whatever for TWC to give names to winter storms, but TWC's primary goal will have been met: getting people to talk about a particular storm. And since forewarned is forearmed, that can only help...


Thats the problem, it should have been named yesterday. Headline: HELLO, THE STORM IS ALREADY HAPPENING. Final prep should have been done. Lets see who else TWC can cut from their payroll.
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Maybe some sleet mixed in?.....

Southwest Jersey Under a Winter Storm Warning 3-6 inches of sleet and snow...


Click Picture above for LINK

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Quoting AussieStorm:
Mike Bettes ‏@TWCMikeBettes
*Breaking News* - @weatherchannel has just named it's 1st winter storm #Athena
That's excellent, and expected. I'm sure there'll be a ton of people on today saying it's stupid or pretentious or arrogant of whatever for TWC to give names to winter storms, but TWC's primary goal will have been met: getting people to talk about a particular storm. And since forewarned is forearmed, that can only help...
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Based on the explicit use of the phrase "the Admins will allow discussion of election results this evening", I'd say the political chit-chat is off-limits again, save for those "...in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic". (Though Dr. Masters did write, "Be sure to vote today", so I'm not completely sure.)

Admin

Having said that, personal attacks are always forbidden, so if you see a comment you dislike, there's no need for screaming and insulting; just ignore it.
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So how do the results of the election affect the likelihood of budget cuts to the remote sensing community? Did Sandy's October surprise guarantee continued funding for weather prediction/forecast programs?
Based on the advertising last night, I thought the election was sponsored by "clean coal".
I'm thankful both that I got to vote and that Florida's typical inability to complete a count was rendered irrelevant to the presidential election based on electoral count. So my vote hasn’t counted yet.
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ANZ084-ANZ470-071500-
HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON INCLUDING THE WATERS W OF
39.3N 71.9W...SW TO 37.7N 72.9W
400 AM EST WED NOV 07 2012

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...

.TODAY...N TO NE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 TO 65 KT...
THEN BECOMING N TO NW. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT BUILDING TO 20 TO 28 FT.
AREAS OF RAIN. A CHANCE OF TSTMS FAR E.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Quoting AussieStorm:
Mike Bettes ‏@TWCMikeBettes
*Breaking News* - @weatherchannel has just named it's 1st winter storm #Athena


Just stupid
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Winter Storm Athena:

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Mike Bettes ‏@TWCMikeBettes
*Breaking News* - @weatherchannel has just named it's 1st winter storm #Athena
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Barney Alert!
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Quoting Waltanater:
Not on here they haven't. You know it's not fair to those people who have spoken about non-weather related issues on this blog in the past and be berated and blasted for doing so. What makes HIM so special? Sorry, take it else where.

Uhm...you might want to read back some. A majority of the discussion on here last night and this morning has been about politics.

Congratulations Obama...you weren't the candidate I was hoping for, but maybe you'll get America on the right track.
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Quoting Dragod66:


give him a break... this is exciting times. Everyone has been talking about politics if you havn't noticed...
Not on here they haven't. You know it's not fair to those people who have spoken about non-weather related issues on this blog in the past and be berated and blasted for doing so. What makes HIM so special? Sorry, take it else where.
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...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT...HUDSON COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES...AS WELL AS MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Quoting Waltanater:
WHY are you posting this cr*p on a weather forum!? Go somewhere else and post.
Political statements were authorized by admin last night. whether or not that extends into today I don't know but that could be the reason this post was made.
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Damaging winds later today and tonight across Long Island, New York City, and coastal Connecticut.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Quoting MahFL:
Convection fireing near the center, and more yellow on the radar approaching Long Island.
..looks like more power outages and flooding once again there..mother nature striking the same place twice gee
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
788. MahFL
Convection fireing near the center, and more yellow on the radar approaching Long Island.
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Amazing for so early in November......................WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FALLS
MORE STEADILY AND HEAVILY...IT WILL PRIMARILY TAKE THE FORM OF
SNOW. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN
TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO TO UPPER 30S ARE FORECAST...SO
ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON COLDER SURFACES. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL BACK TOWARD FREEZING TONIGHT...THERE COULD BE SOME SLICK
SPOTS ON MAINLY SECONDARY ROADS. TREATED ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY ICE FREE.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
VERY good read Chuck, thanks!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Congratz to all the Obama supporters. It was one heck of a race.
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Quoting Waltanater:
WHY are you posting this cr*p on a weather forum!? Go somewhere else and post.


give him a break... this is exciting times. Everyone has been talking about politics if you havn't noticed...
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Here's a good read for our government when they decide to make more cuts to the NWS.

Link
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lest we forget.............................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
765 AussieStorm: Um, why didn't you go out and check before coming on here, Priorities!!!!

Clearing out the sleepies first. Short of a scream or a fire or substantial building movement, I can't think of a single thing that'd make me go out into a blustery dawn while still groggy. Whereas according to presslord and pottery, a ration of grog can only help when visiting the Wunderground.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Back to teaching today. Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday!
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I wouldn't mind having 51 states in the US and I support PR becoming a state.
It's not up to you, so go chase a storm!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.